The Syndicate

I have no reason to keep Wilgy alive.

If nothing else this has made an interesting night of this. I was going to be a snooze otherwise.

Sloonei wrote: ↑Wed Jan 24, 2018 10:40 pm Epi for best independent, 2018

I considered that too. I was like, "is this guy really pulling some indy gambit now?" But then I was like, "hey wait, maybe something else is up with this guy. And whatever it is, NVN sure seems clueless."

Remember Dizzy and don't babble about it unless told otherwise. Just ponder.

novaselinenever wrote: ↑Wed Jan 24, 2018 10:01 pm
Epignosis wrote: ↑Wed Jan 24, 2018 9:59 pm
novaselinenever wrote: ↑Wed Jan 24, 2018 9:58 pm @JaggedJimmyJay Thank you for being the only one not voting against me. Means a lot mate
Would you vote for me?
If you insist on it lol. My vote on Marmot is useless.

If I understand where we are right now, this post is extremely civilian.

Epignosis wrote: ↑Wed Jan 24, 2018 10:07 pm JJJ, you can move you vote to Marmot to facilitate that change if you feel you need to. I will do likewise.

Lemme know if/when you need me back where I was.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Wed Jan 24, 2018 10:05 pm I think Marmot should be lynched.

Do it without my vote.

I think Marmot should be lynched.

I think I understand.

I wonder what nonsense I have set in motion.

Epignosis wrote: ↑Wed Jan 24, 2018 8:29 pm
JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Wed Jan 24, 2018 7:14 pm Hopefully we're not locked into a choice. EOD mobility would be a nice option.
What's wrong with being locked into a choice?

If there's some insight or inspiration to come in this phase which points to a likely suspect, I'd like to lynch 'em today instead of tomorrow. It's not a huge deal, just prefer not to waste time.

Epignosis wrote: ↑Wed Jan 24, 2018 8:31 pm 3J- why haven't you even cast a vote yet?

I'm in no hurry. Two people have votes, and the one with most of them hasn't said he won't be back. I'm still listening.

Hopefully we're not locked into a choice. EOD mobility would be a nice option.

I'll be pretty surprised at this point if there isn't someone evil between the two with votes right now.

Sloonei wrote: ↑Wed Jan 24, 2018 6:13 pm Why are we speculating about NVN's vote being forced, and which vote are we talking about?

I would presume his vote for Marmot last phase, otherwise I don't get it either. I would hardly even get that.

Epignosis wrote: ↑Wed Jan 24, 2018 6:08 pm Second, I am asking that as many skilled roofers be here during the final hour of the Day. That's 12:15am EST to 1:15am EST. I know that's impossible for some, but I hope it is not an inconvenience for most.

I think it's actually 11:15pm to 12:15am EST.

Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Wed Jan 24, 2018 5:47 pm Why are we splitting the votes and making it all *insert shrug emoji*

I’m voting NVN, cause duh.

On phone now, will probably be able to read and comment when home

Why is it duh?

Marmot wrote: ↑Wed Jan 24, 2018 5:04 pm
JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Wed Jan 24, 2018 5:00 pm I don't know what you mean. What read? What is the same thing happening? Eh?
Exactly what you just said! PoE reads.

Anyway, I've got a 1:00 meeting. and I likely won't be on after that. Good luck civilians!!!

A POE pool is not static. If material in the thread dictates that someone should be removed from it or added to it then that can certainly occur. We all have individual perspectives of how that pool looks as well. We wouldn't be asking you questions if our ears were deaf to your answers. Perhaps someone's ears are deaf if they're evil, but there's only one or maybe two of those here right?

I don't know what you mean. What read? What is the same thing happening? Eh?

Hey Marmot, how do you feel about being the very last player in the POE pool to be lynched? Or the second-last?

I think we should double lynch them.

novaselinenever wrote: ↑Wed Jan 24, 2018 2:37 pm I don't really have anything to say. You guys to what you think is best. Even by mislynching today, we could still win comfortably.

What do you think of Marmot?

Spacedaisy wrote: ↑Wed Jan 24, 2018 2:30 pmThen he comes in today and makes an assertion I have never seen before from him.

What's that?

I'll give NVN his opportunity to say his piece.

Epignosis wrote: ↑Tue Jan 23, 2018 10:35 pm MacDougall cares about Putin's roof. That's how much he cares about a roof. If anybody needs me to explain why, I will.

I'm interested.

nutella wrote: ↑Tue Jan 23, 2018 2:38 am If I die tonight I'd suggest trying Kyle first. I think he's a really decent candidate and looked like teammate-compatible for both Lorab and LC for multiple reasons.

WIFOM kill. Hi Marmot.

Marmot wrote: ↑Tue Jan 23, 2018 10:20 pm I don't think there's any reason to believe I'm civilian.

How would you handle it if in a game you were everyone's top civilian read?

Long Con and nutella

Spoiler: show

He threw shade at both Mac and nutella for their debate over the copypasta rainbow list. It is unclear why.

Spoiler: show

They had a few of these silly banter posts.

Picture battle

k

Spoiler: show

This post acknowledge that I may think LC ate my poop but does little with it.

Spoiler: show

Indirect prod.

Spoiler: show

Decent that nutella included both LoRab and Long Con in this little wolf list.

Spoiler: show

The read is reiterated as "pretty orange".

A full rainbow featuring an orange LC

Promoted to a lighter shade of orange next time

Hater.

Spoiler: show

She's happy to lynch either of the two confirmed mafia which is cool beans, but she is drawn to a Sloonei lynch which I have felt was a very poor choice at every juncture of this game. So that's a bit ew.

Spoiler: show

This looked a lot worse before LC flipped mafia. Now it's pretty groovy. It's pretty radical, dude. Totally tubular. This kind of setup would force her to be nice to me after my LC case turns into a mafia lynch, which wouldn't serve to her benefit much at all if she is his teammate. Good look.

She oranges LC again but spends much of her explanation for that talking about me instead of him. Meh.

Spoiler: show

Player salad!

Spoiler: show

Kyle is her projected target post-LC. I haven't agreed with any of the connections she has drawn. To be fair she wasn't alone in this one.

~~~

Conclusion -- There are some very small gripes here. The point that moves me most though was the good look that I had previously hated. Gun to my head she is not mafia.

Seriously though Mac, I think we're in a pretty similar place with regard to the POE pool. The order might not be identical, but whatever.

MacDougall

~ He was the first to calm the environment of the thread in Night 1 with unique analytic effort, drawing possible team connections.
~ This is the best effort he has given in a game in recent memory.
~ He conveys an earnest tone.

Best reasons to read each player as a civilian, colored by the strength of the statement.

DaveDaisy

~ After being clearly upset about the way her previous body was mislynched, Daisy returned to the game with a fire lit under her ass and pursued her convictions loudly.
~ She has been willing to change her mind when the progression of the game has dictated that without hanging on too tightly to dubious threads.
~ She conveys an earnest tone which suits her previous form, at least the four posts available to us.

DrWilgy

~ He was essentially ignored by both confirmed mafia members. One might expect them to poke or prod him to life at least once.
~ He gives no impression that he is concerned with the state of the game or with being lynched by process of elimination.

Dyslexicon

~ They were an early critic of LoRab, and in her response to that criticism she seemed to be trying to convince someone of her innocence more than simply trading barbs.
~ When they've been available to play, they have provided a consistently thorough effort.

Epignosis

~ LoRab was eager to lynch him on Day 1 and didn't budge from that perspective through Night 1 when Epignosis was being painted as a dead man walking.
~ Long Con interacted with him very little early in the game while he and I were fist-fighting, suggesting that he was enjoying a civilian vs. civilian powder keg being in the room.

FZ.

~ She made it a personal crusade to see LC lynched and did not budge from that at any juncture. LC's handling of that pressure was much like LoRab's handling of Dizzy.
~ She provides a good effort when she is available to play and conveys an earnest tone.

JaggedJimmyJay

~ It's gotta be that beautiful, tight butt.

Kylemii

~ Long Con danced around his read on Kyle early relative to the fake tell in such a way that it looked like he was capitalizing on thread progression and smearing.
~ His effort has been decent and he has been present frequently.
~ He conveys an earnest tone.

MacDougall

~ He was the first to calm the environment of the thread in Night 1 with unique analytic effort, drawing possible team connections.
~ This is the best effort he has given in a game in recent memory.
~ He conveys an earnest tone.

Marmot

~ Long Con treated him like he was an easy-button mislynch when Mac interrogated him, suggesting TMI.
~ He sounded rather genuine in response to being suspected early in the game (before Mac's attacks became more frequent).

novaselinenever

~ He might be an information-carrying role who misunderstood the rules.
~ He's the most obvious option and it's rarely this easy.

nutella

~ On Day 2 she was all over the place with her vote, a literal expression of this emoji: . After freaking out with indecision she ended up on LoRab, and she didn't have to.
~ She has conveyed an earnest tone.

Sloonei

~ He was an eager driver of the LoRab lynch and contributor to the Long Con lynch.
~ He has over 400 posts.
~ He hasn't stopped hunting despite being heavily suspected at numerous junctures of play.

This exploration doesn't change my POE. It does however give me a reason to double-check nutella's interactions with the mafia, because that point about her LoRab vote used to be stronger before it came to be known that the counterwagon was also a mafioso.

Long Con and Marmot

Spoiler: show

Typical WIFOM

Spoiler: show

Long Con wrote: ↑Mon Jan 22, 2018 1:14 am Well, right now it looks like he's shoehorning Marmot into lynch position for dubious reasons.

Long Con wrote: ↑Mon Jan 22, 2018 1:19 am
Sloonei wrote: ↑Mon Jan 22, 2018 1:15 am
Long Con wrote: ↑Mon Jan 22, 2018 1:14 am Well, right now it looks like he's shoehorning Marmot into lynch position for dubious reasons.
Do you read Marmot as town?
GTH yes. I haven't been pinged by him. Lazy play, despite what Macdougall is saying, isn't much of a baddie tell for Marmot.

Long Con wrote: ↑Mon Jan 22, 2018 1:32 am
Sloonei wrote: ↑Mon Jan 22, 2018 1:25 am
Long Con wrote: ↑Mon Jan 22, 2018 1:19 am
Sloonei wrote: ↑Mon Jan 22, 2018 1:15 am
Long Con wrote: ↑Mon Jan 22, 2018 1:14 am Well, right now it looks like he's shoehorning Marmot into lynch position for dubious reasons.
Do you read Marmot as town?
GTH yes. I haven't been pinged by him. Lazy play, despite what Macdougall is saying, isn't much of a baddie tell for Marmot.
Can you tell me more about why Macdougall is scum? Is it based entirely on his recent treatment of the marmot?
Actually, it is based on the recent stuff. I'm having some trouble with the two concurrent games running, and getting mixed up between them. This is something that currently looks suspicious.

Long Con wrote: ↑Mon Jan 22, 2018 1:45 am
Sloonei wrote: ↑Mon Jan 22, 2018 1:36 am
Long Con wrote: ↑Mon Jan 22, 2018 1:32 am
Sloonei wrote: ↑Mon Jan 22, 2018 1:25 am
Long Con wrote: ↑Mon Jan 22, 2018 1:19 am
Sloonei wrote: ↑Mon Jan 22, 2018 1:15 am
Long Con wrote: ↑Mon Jan 22, 2018 1:14 am Well, right now it looks like he's shoehorning Marmot into lynch position for dubious reasons.
Do you read Marmot as town?
GTH yes. I haven't been pinged by him. Lazy play, despite what Macdougall is saying, isn't much of a baddie tell for Marmot.
Can you tell me more about why Macdougall is scum? Is it based entirely on his recent treatment of the marmot?
Actually, it is based on the recent stuff. I'm having some trouble with the two concurrent games running, and getting mixed up between them. This is something that currently looks suspicious.
why is "push Marmot" a viable scum strategy for Macdougall entering Day 3?
Attacking Marmot for lazy play, as if Marmot tends to be an overly-vocal, super-analytical player. Possibly ironic, because THAT looks like lazy play on Macdougall's part, going after Marmot for his extremely usual play.

Long Con wrote: ↑Mon Jan 22, 2018 1:56 am
Sloonei wrote: ↑Mon Jan 22, 2018 1:53 am
Long Con wrote: ↑Mon Jan 22, 2018 1:45 am
Sloonei wrote: ↑Mon Jan 22, 2018 1:36 am why is "push Marmot" a viable scum strategy for Macdougall entering Day 3?
Attacking Marmot for lazy play, as if Marmot tends to be an overly-vocal, super-analytical player. Possibly ironic, because THAT looks like lazy play on Macdougall's part, going after Marmot for his extremely usual play.
I'm not sure this answers my question, so I'll rephrase: why does it make sense for macdougall, as scum, to pick Marmot of all people as his lynch target for the day?
I guess if I were a better Mafia player, I could figure out that answer. Unless it specifically makes NO sense, then it's a strategy a person could go with. If Marmot is Civ and Mac is bad, then it makes sense to try and get a Civ lynched, while also looking like you're doing some new, fresh hunting. In this instance, though, the new, fresh hunting looks stale.

That's all of LC's responses to Mac's suspicion of Marmot. To me it reads more like LC has TMI on Marmot being a civilian and wants to make Mac look bad if Marmot gets lynched (indicating civilians on each end, with more capacity for Mac distancing than Marmot protecting). This isn't a slam dunk read so I can understand those who may disagree.

Spoiler: show

Not sure why LC is relevant to Marmot's read on NVN here.

Spoiler: show

Marmot preferred an NVN lynch and was vague in his agreement that LC "could" be mafia. He also threw some pretty baseless tinfoil into the thread. This isn't my favorite thing, though a failure to just annihilate a teammate LC at this point is a confusing move for anyone.

~~~

Conclusion -- I cannot find the confidence to remove him from the POE pool. He's not my first priority though.

Long Con and DaveDaisy

Long Con appears to have never acknowledged the existence of this player slot in either of its bodies.

Spoiler: show

I don't care much that she had LC in the green pile. The reasoning provided doesn't inspire me though. She was clear and concrete with her reason for placing FZ. in this tier. She thought FZ felt sincere in her handling of Kyle. She even felt FZ was more sincere than LC. They're the same color. There is no reason provided here whatsoever that LC is colored the same way she is. The case on speedchuck is cited, but not as an indicator in either direction, and that is immediately qualified with a "maybe my problem..." disclaimer. At face value this is an ugly moment for Daisy.

Spoiler: show

Spacedaisy wrote: ↑Mon Jan 22, 2018 11:15 pm Alright, well I've been trying to keep up throughout the day while I was working. I took a nap when I got home and accidentally slept for three hours! :eep: I'm here now though, sorry guys. I'm going to try and post my thoughts about the people discussed today.

This day has been weird. Mac posted a request to read something about Marmot a while ago, I didn't at the time but I will go back and do that after I post here. Mainly because I don't quite understand why he is so sure of Marmot. I really haven't felt much of anything about Marmot. So maybe I'm missing something there. I'll post more on him once I read what Mac has said.

I would like to say I suspect Kyle, because everyone seems to think he and I are equally suspicious based on our actions, but I just don't. Everything Kyle says reads like sincere Kyle to me. Lorab's flip didn't change that. And the fact he isn't swung by self preservation just to say "It must be Daisy" either just makes me feel that much more like he is sincere and trying to find actual baddies.

I don't think Mac is bad, despite Marmot's no u. :shrugs:

This leaves me with LC. The thing I can't get past is Epi's case about the vote LC placed yesterday coupled with the fact Lorab didn't vote to save herself. I can't think of a single good reason not to vote to save yourself if you are in a lynch tied with a civ. No one would think less of someone who casts a self preservation vote. So why didn't she?

NVN, I don't know what to think of him. Nothing and then a bunch of posts in self defense. I didn't even think he (? correct me if I am wrong) was even actually playing. I was actually kind of worried the stuff in the early game had driven him off. I would say he would be a second suspect for me, the timing of the sudden activity combined with the voting shenanigans has me questioning. I still think I feel more confident in LC though. I mean if NVN were bad, he could have kept right on laying low and it would have taken a while for PoE to get to him. I don't know. LC is more suspicious to me.

I'm going to go ahead and put a vote on LC and then go back and look at Mac's case again.

*Votes LC*

Sloonei mentioned this earlier and I have similar concerns. This post seems to be a walkthrough of the thought process that eventually culminates in a LC vote, and I don't care for any of it until the last large paragraph. The bit about Marmot and Mac is pretty pointless. The bit about Kyle doesn't even reflect the reality of this game as far as I can tell. I don't know why she's drawn up this "Kyle/Daisy" dichotomy, because I haven't felt that way at any juncture. It's also a dubious reason to give Kyle credit. This stuff reads like someone who knows where their vote is going and is trying to manufacture the right image before getting to the point.

However, I am at least a little more pleased with what she said about NVN toward the end. The opportunity to pursue that line of attack more fervently was in place, whether she voted there or not, and she still focused her eye on LC. So that's a bit better.

~~~

Conclusion -- I think she belongs in the "tinfoil" category alongside the likes of Mac, meaning she shouldn't be a priority lynch. She is in the POE pool though.

Long Con and novaselinenever

Spoiler: show

There was no mention until LC's lynch was nigh, and he threw a bunch of mud at NVN over the perceived "info" thing. I don't care about any of this.

Spoiler: show

novaselinenever wrote: ↑Mon Jan 22, 2018 1:42 pm
Sloonei wrote: ↑Mon Jan 22, 2018 1:11 pm we're also going to have to figure out what to do with NVN sooner or later. He seems to be stretched pretty thin mafia-wise, and it doesn't appear that he's going to dump a load of content on us any time soon. His spot seems doomed to sit around in single-digit posts for this game. As the POE pool continues to shrink, his spot does not budge.
The only info I would have is that I think you guys are right about LC, but wrong about him. He reads Mafia and I don't see any case being made of him as Town

novaselinenever wrote: ↑Mon Jan 22, 2018 2:05 pm
JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Mon Jan 22, 2018 1:55 pm
novaselinenever wrote: ↑Mon Jan 22, 2018 1:54 pm
Epignosis wrote: ↑Mon Jan 22, 2018 1:47 pm
novaselinenever wrote: ↑Mon Jan 22, 2018 1:42 pm
Sloonei wrote: ↑Mon Jan 22, 2018 1:11 pm we're also going to have to figure out what to do with NVN sooner or later. He seems to be stretched pretty thin mafia-wise, and it doesn't appear that he's going to dump a load of content on us any time soon. His spot seems doomed to sit around in single-digit posts for this game. As the POE pool continues to shrink, his spot does not budge.
The only info I would have is that I think you guys are right about LC, but wrong about him. He reads Mafia and I don't see any case being made of him as Town
Eh?
lol wrong about me. I've my names in red/yellow in several rainbows
What is it about LC that you think looks like mafia?
His excuses of trying to catch up and then casting a vote to save himself at the end of the day. He made some post and was around for a bit before casting that vote. He also didn't question him or voice anything against him. It seems like he was just trying to throw excuses for his change of vote.
I also didn't get his whole 'didn't have a chance to investigate Lorab or others'. He's also been asking a lot of simple, which seems weird.

novaselinenever wrote: ↑Mon Jan 22, 2018 2:35 pm
Sloonei wrote: ↑Mon Jan 22, 2018 2:11 pm Do you have any other reads to share, novaselinenever? I'd even be happy if you could just go through the list of remaining players and give a simple "Good" or "Bad" read for each of them. Of course, any more detailed reads you might be able to shade would be superb as well.

Daisy Good
Dizzy Good
Epi Good
FZ Good
JJJ Good
Kyle Good
LC Mafia
Mac 2nd Mafia/3rd Party
Marmot 2nd Mafia/3rd Party
NVN Great
Nutella Good
Sloonei Good
Wilgy Good

novaselinenever wrote: ↑Tue Jan 23, 2018 12:39 am
JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Tue Jan 23, 2018 12:34 am
novaselinenever wrote: ↑Tue Jan 23, 2018 12:33 am JaggedJimmyJay You've been flip flopping a lot between me and LC
Is that right? What do you think about that?
A Townie having doubts and not too sure who to vote.

novaselinenever wrote: ↑Tue Jan 23, 2018 12:47 am
JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Tue Jan 23, 2018 12:45 am
MacDougall wrote: ↑Tue Jan 23, 2018 12:43 am I'd lynch several people before Nova at this point.
I'll await verification on the LC flip. If it goes according to plan, I'd lynch zero people before NVN.
If he flips scums, how does that make me scum ? Weren't I going after him until I figured something else ?

novaselinenever wrote: ↑Tue Jan 23, 2018 1:14 am
MacDougall wrote: ↑Tue Jan 23, 2018 12:50 am Look at who is not on Long Con wagon. Nova and Marmot.

I feel like it would be a bit dumb to not be on his wagon.
I was on his wagon very early on and gave my reads on him. I wanted to go after Marmot, they were enough people going after LC already

This guy has no opinion on anything in the entire game until LC is in trouble for the majority of a day phase, and he hops right on with the attack with a tone of confidence despite his read being entirely vague. Then, when I moved my vote to Marmot to make the tally 4-2 LC-Marmot, he followed me right over and made it 4-3. None of this makes any sense; I don't buy it. I think it's more likely that in BTSC LC sensed his own danger and recommended to NVN that he come by and eviscerate him. He tried, and fumbled that vote as awkwardly as any vote can be fumbled, and at no point explained himself adequately.

FZ. wrote: ↑Tue Jan 23, 2018 6:10 pm
JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Tue Jan 23, 2018 6:05 pm The reason I like NVN as a suspect is that the suspicion doesn't involve anything LC said or did, so it's free of his WIFOM generation. It's all on NVN himself for that bizarre voting behavior yesterday. The first one (voting Marmot to pull him within one vote of LC) looked like an oopsie that he struggled to clean up with vague assertions about Marmot.
Did LC or Lorab talk about him?

On it next.

The reason I like NVN as a suspect is that the suspicion doesn't involve anything LC said or did, so it's free of his WIFOM generation. It's all on NVN himself for that bizarre voting behavior yesterday. The first one (voting Marmot to pull him within one vote of LC) looked like an oopsie that he struggled to clean up with vague assertions about Marmot.

MacDougall wrote: ↑Tue Jan 23, 2018 6:00 pm Counterpoint what would you expect him to do if he found himself in a situation where both he and his only living scum partner were looking like toast? Distance, defend, bus? I think if that's the case he was damned if he does and damned if he doesn't so he would probably just defend and hope someone argues that it would be too obvious.

Who knows. I was in a similar position in the Mountain game and elected to hard-bus. It worked temporarily. Hard defense wouldn't have. That doesn't mean he'd do what I did though.

Long Con and DrWilgy

Long Con never mentioned Wilgy. He also never mentioned LoRab until he was forced to vote for her.

Welp, Wilgy never mentioned him either.

Still in the POE pool.

FZ. wrote: ↑Tue Jan 23, 2018 5:54 pm Can we just lynch Nova next day and hope for the best?

He's my top pick right now and it isn't especially close.

MacDougall wrote: ↑Tue Jan 23, 2018 5:53 pm
JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Tue Jan 23, 2018 5:50 pm That could be, Mac, but you might deserve to be lynched anyway for quoting that entire post.
I ain't clipping on my phone matus.

Fine.

What do you think of the notion that LC knew both you and Marmot were civilians and was trying to set you up to look like an arse when easy-to-lynch Marmot flips civilian?

That could be, Mac, but you might deserve to be lynched anyway for quoting that entire post.

FZ. wrote: ↑Tue Jan 23, 2018 5:34 pmOkay, I don't recall that. Maybe it was when I went to sleep and neglected to catch up.

First mentioned here

LoRab answered Dizzy here and seemed to be only responsive instead of probing into her accuser (much like LC was in response to you).

FZ. wrote: ↑Tue Jan 23, 2018 5:34 pmJJJ, as the expert in looking for posts, who was it that started the suspicion on the other? Mac on Marmot, or the other way around?

Mac colors Marmot orange in a segmented rainbow thing on the evening of 18 January.

MacDougall wrote: ↑Thu Jan 18, 2018 8:28 pm Wilgy and Marmot are totally cruising making jokes while a game is going on around them. Let's lynch one of them.

Mac turns it into a more concrete accusation an hour later.

Marmot wrote: ↑Thu Jan 18, 2018 9:32 pm Whose idea was it to create the false dilemma of lynching myself or DrWilgy because we are "cruising making jokes" when that is not what is happening.

I'm looking at you MacDougall.

Marmot's first mention of Mac is in direct response to the above, an hour after that. So it would seem Mac's accusation came first.

FZ. wrote: ↑Tue Jan 23, 2018 5:30 pm I forget, why are we so trusting of Dyslexicon given her voting record, other than a general civvie vibe?

I think the best evidence is their early and frequent antagonism with LoRab.

Long Con and MacDougall

Spoiler: show

Casual, off-hand suspicion tossed in Mac's direction alongside nutella over his copy/paste of speedchuck's rainbow.

Spoiler: show

LC made a couple of TMI-type accusations in this game, first this one at Mac and later in the large case against speedchuck. The latter was civilian, so take that however you may.

Spoiler: show

Rainbow list copypasta gripes continued. LC pushed this point, though I don't know if he pursued it beyond talk.

Spoiler: show

Sloonei asked Long Con who to lynch and got this question as an answer. I don't struggle to see the antagonism as distancing so far.

Spoiler: show

This might be a bit better for Mac. LC couldn't entirely qualify his suspicion of Mac when pressed by Sloonei, and he moaned a bit about the challenge of playing in two games at once. I'd expect a distancing LC to be more concrete in his expression of suspicion.

Spoiler: show

LC kept at it with regard to Mac's suspicion of Marmot, claiming it was too easy and based upon a premise ignorant of Marmot's normal behavior. I tend to think that most of this stuff says more about Marmot than it says about Mac. I can note though that if Marmot is a civilian, then LC is completely blaming Mac ahead of time for that. There was no good reason to defend Marmot for the very same reasons LC was critical of Mac's suspicion of Marmot, but he did it anyway -- that's TMI on Marmot and perhaps preemptive setup on Mac. I could see them being civilian-civilian in that light (or at least not mafia-not mafia). If one of them is mafia, I think Mac is more likely.

Spoiler: show

At least some of Mac's early suspicion of me was driven by my handling of rationale provided by LC. Okay.

Spoiler: show

Mac's response to LC's accusations re: the copypasta rainbow list were pretty disinterested. At least it doesn't look like your typical energized distancing effort. There's no drama.

Long Con is light green in the middle "gives some credence" group in this segmented rainbow. If nothing else I don't care for this method of presenting reads because it is pretty hard to tell what Mac actually thinks about these folks.

Mac is displeased with LC's turns on Kyle and Sloonei.

I think this is a decent catch, because there really wasn't sufficient justification for those turns and Mac should be credited for identifying this progression.

Spoiler: show

I'm a bit bugged that the partnership Mac pushed for Long Con was the same one I consider highly unlikely -- Kylemii.

Spoiler: show

I was momentarily a doofus in response to LC's case against speedchuck case and Mac didn't agree. It's a somewhat decent look, though my tinfoil alerts are warning me that Mac was attempting to link me to his teammate.

Spoiler: show

He didn't think LC's case against speedchuck was all crap though.

Long Con is dark green now in the segmented rainbow thing

???

Spoiler: show

Not long after he's "orange at best". 'Kay.

~~~

Conclusion -- Clearly these two have interacted quite a lot in this game, and I think the results are a mixed bag. I noticed a few things that I liked, but I cannot claim they were strong points in Mac's favor. I also encountered things I didn't care for. I really don't know what was happening with that read at the end. He remains a tinfoil candidate.

Long Con and Kylemii

Spoiler: show

Long Con jumped joyfully on my fake tell and then griped at Kyle for his response to it with this language-driven manipulation. This is bullshit, and looks like LC smearing a civilian who is already frustrated.

I gave LC shit for that and he backed away from the accusation both in response to me and Kyle himself. Kyle identified a shady crop job from LC which made his post look worse than it was, and LC was forced to recant.

I already think Kyle is not his teammate.

LC promptly cleared Kyle after the latter provided some concerns about Sloonei. LC realized continuing to poke Kyle would be a losing game after the fake tell controversy had subsided other than Sloonei, and he shifted his focus to the other civilian in the dialogue (Sloonei).

Spoiler: show

"Kyle, my civilian last hope, you mustn't vote for me because this is how dumb Jay's case [not my case] is -- see look right here, isn't it so dumb?"

~~~

Conclusion -- I'm finished here. Kyle is removed from the POE pool.

Spacedaisy wrote: ↑Tue Jan 23, 2018 4:05 pm LOL, see this is where my way of thinking seems to cause trouble. I read that and I think, yeah you could easily leave LC in the lead and cast a vote to keep pressure on others and see how they and other voters respond to it. This was not the end of the lynch, there was still time. With LC having a huge lead there is little to gain from it. It is an easy move for a baddie to bus their teammate, suspicion of LC wasn't going anywhere. We can't really thin out our PoE pool from that lynch because a vote cast for LC doesn't mean much when he loses 9-2-1. I see a civ mindset in his wanting to keep pressure on someone else he suspected. But my brain works backwards from other people's sometimes it seems.

I don't necessarily disagree. I'm just making sure you're not making things up.

Kyle voted off-wagons on Day 2, happily leaving the decision to the rabbi. Now we know that the tiebreaker decision hardly mattered. Do we think Kyle would have bailed on lynching either of his two teammates at least for the "deciding vote" credit? It didn't matter which one.

He's an ultra-careful player, but that'd seem more silly than careful to me if he's bad.

Spacedaisy wrote: ↑Tue Jan 23, 2018 3:52 pm
MacDougall wrote: ↑Mon Jan 22, 2018 10:28 pm I honestly could and would vote for any of these three who have votes. I'm going to leave my vote on Marmot for now because I am happy to see any of them lynched and I'd like for him to remain a viable lynch.

Linki: Is the eyeroll because Marmot is good or because you think that post is very maphier?
It's posts like these that have made me feel like Mac is civ. The game is littered with these type of posts from Mac. I feel like even when he arrives at different reads than me, his approach/mind set always seems consistently civ to me.

What is it about that post that you like? I could argue that Mac left himself an opening to drive at least two lynches other than Long Con in that post.

Bringing the final Day 2 poll back for good measure. The lead wagons were mafia-mafia.

Epignosis wrote: ↑Sun Jan 21, 2018 1:30 am
Spoiler: show
Who could have been killing on the Sabbath (but wasn't)?

Poll ended at Sun Jan 21, 2018 12:04 amPlease note that if you vote, your vote will be visible.

Daisy
1
6%

Voters: Kylemii

Dizzy
0
No votes

Voters: None

Epi
2
12%

Voters: LoRab, Marmot

FZ
0
No votes

Voters: None

JJJ
1
6%

Voters: Dyslexicon

Kyle
1
6%

Voters: DrWilgy

LC
4
24%

Voters: Epignosis, MacDougall, JaggedJimmyJay, FZ.

Lorab
4
24%

Voters: Long Con, speedchuck, nutella, Sloonei

Mac
0
No votes

Voters: None

Marmot
0
No votes

Voters: None

NVN
0
No votes

Voters: None

Nutella
1
6%

Voters: Spacedaisy

Sloonei
0
No votes

Voters: None

Speed
0
No votes

Voters: None

Wilgy
0
No votes

Voters: None

Tevye's Fourth Daughter (Host/dead/non)
3
18%

Voters: DFaraday, dunya, MovingPictures07

Total votes: 17

Spacedaisy wrote: ↑Tue Jan 23, 2018 3:44 pm I think I missed this when it happened. NVN, did you explain why you thought Mac was bad, Marmot 3P but your vote went to Marmot instead of Mac?

I'll also note the timing:

NVN's vote made the tally 4 votes for LC and 3 votes for Marmot.

It is also possible the independent role could be killed assuming the role allows for it. I don't think we'd have any way of knowing though.

16 players

12 civilians vs. 3 mafia /// (1 independent)

2 civilians dead (Spacedaisy 1.0, speedchuck)

2 mafia dead (LoRab, Long Con)

10 vs. 1 mafia /// (1 independent)

If a kill occurs tonight: 9 vs. 1 /// 1

That's three mislynches available before 3 vs. 1 /// 1 (if kills recur on each ensuing night)

The game isn't over. We'll have to work at it. Devising a POE pool of just four names won't be all that easy. I just tried and ended up with this:

Dyslexicon
Epignosis
FZ.
nutella
Sloonei

DaveDaisy
DrWilgy
Kylemii
MacDougall
Marmot
novaselinenever

This also does not account for the independent role, which I can only hope isn't considered anti-civilian in terms of the win conditions of the civilians and of it.

I am confident that I can narrow the pool further with interactive analyses and a little more leniency with the criteria. Let's not get complacent though. I've seen a solo mafioso come back from a worse deficit than this.

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