The Syndicate

MacDougall wrote:Mother of God Jimmy. You have legitimately jumped the shark. Please go to bed.

I like my lynch more than your lynch.

MacDougall wrote:It appears as though you are suggesting that I somehow scumslipped by referring to players arguing with the potential of a Tranq=bad scenario as civilians.

1. You don't believe in scumslips
2. By virtue of Tranq being alive I am referring to everyone not voting for him of which many are bound to be civilians

1. You literally told me that you scumslip often.
2. You bothered to defend yourself against that bullshit.

MacDougall wrote:Yes, because it would appear that some civvies refuse to consider the possibility that Tranq is doing this on purpose.

Of course I have other suspicions. I don't find any of them more compelling than getting rid of Tranq right now.

I am willing to consider the possibility that Tranq is bad. I don't think he's hiding out on purpose though. Lurkers gonna lurk. Hell, last time he was a baddie he put up 200 posts.

And what is this?

Mac, what's the worst thing Tranq has done or posted in this game in your opinion?

MacDougall wrote:Jimmy you might as well stop bothering with this game and go back to your real life because I'm going to kill you tonight.

I would really appreciate that.

We're losing 2-3 civilians per night and people want to policy lynch on Day 4.

MacDougall wrote:
JaggedJimmyJay wrote:
MacDougall wrote:
JaggedJimmyJay wrote:
MacDougall wrote:I never said I was going to change my vote. Tranq is my vote. I am not changing my vote. Everyone else should also vote for Tranq.
Your vote is weak sauce.
Tranq hasn't really given me much of an option to build a case on him. I am lynching him because he has literally put in no effort to assist the civilians other than offer Ricochet his vote which he could just refuse to do if Rico chooses a scum partner. Defending his behaviour is annoying.
I don't give a shit if it's annoying. There are better cases. You agreed with llama/Dom, and you're voting for a generic lurker.
You said yourself that Tranq will get lynched eventually. When? Lylo? Lynch him now. It's safer.

That's not a reflection of my desire, it's my lack of faith in people to get around a generic lurker. If he's lynched and flips bad, it's dumb luck. At least today he's done something.

If we lynched llama right now what percentage chance would you assign to his being a baddie?

MacDougall wrote:
JaggedJimmyJay wrote:
MacDougall wrote:I never said I was going to change my vote. Tranq is my vote. I am not changing my vote. Everyone else should also vote for Tranq.
Your vote is weak sauce.
Tranq hasn't really given me much of an option to build a case on him. I am lynching him because he has literally put in no effort to assist the civilians other than offer Ricochet his vote which he could just refuse to do if Rico chooses a scum partner. Defending his behaviour is annoying.

I don't give a shit if it's annoying. There are better cases. You agreed with llama/Dom, and you're voting for a generic lurker.

juliets wrote:oh you changed it.

What of yours?

MacDougall wrote:Oh wait I didn't realise we were so close to a fun tie. Reserving the right to change my vote again to cause it.

There's no way you're a civilian.

MacDougall wrote:I never said I was going to change my vote. Tranq is my vote. I am not changing my vote. Everyone else should also vote for Tranq.

Your vote is weak sauce.

"three reasons"

*lists two*

good one JJJ

FZ. wrote:I guess my problem is, I expect baddies to act as I do when I'm bad
I'm not sold on one of them having to be bad because of Lorab talking about both of them. If I were bad with one of them, I'd try to treat them both exactly the same. The fact that she did it differently could have been to make us think one of them is bad if that ever came to the test. It's a WIFOM.

There it is, the question we have to answer. Are we to believe LoRab deliberately did this to send someone like JJJ on this mission to get someone or two someones mislynched? There are three reasons I don't think so:

1. LoRab can only care about this if she anticipates her own lynch and the resulting analysis. More importantly, she'd have to specifically anticipate that someone would pick up on it. I honestly don't think this case would exist if I didn't build it myself. I mean no offense to anyone obviously, there are tons of capable analysts in this game -- it's just a specific notion I've brought out and I'm hesitant to believe LoRab had in her mind before I did. That's really the biggest question for everyone else to consider, I cannot be objective since it's my case.

2. In the process of doing this, she acknowledged the validity of something that in part implicated her. Rico was building a potential mafia team of Dom, llama, and LoRab all at once based on "suspish". For her to even grant the notion any serious thought as a point against llama suggests to me that she had a specific design in mind by even talking about him. It's a very weak accusation -- that saying "suspish" is a scumslip. It's very easy to discard that, but she accepted for one person.

FZ. wrote:What do you think of Dom's suspicions? Do you agree that he keeps voicing others' suspicions. Be it, DH's, LC's and others'?

I do think he's been riding coattails to some degree, yes. I don't necessarily think that's a baddie tell, but it's not a town tell either. His consistent and unending suspicion of me could be genuine or it could be an attempt to capitalize on the fact that I've been lynchable three day phases in a row. I do think his coattail casing is no worse than llama's non-casing.

FZ. wrote:linki: Possible. If you were bad, what would you do instead of either of them?

I've never been in a position like that to my memory, so I can only guess. I think I'd probably try to discredit the theory so that I could defend myself without being forced to take a hard stance on someone else if I'm not prepared to do that. That would reflect llama here. Again though, I cannot know for sure.

I also note that Dom seems to have acknowledged that the point I'm making is solid -- and he has turned his sights on llama as a result. Llama has just evaded every relevant point and not set his sights on Dom. I think Dom's behavior in that dynamic is more civilian-inclined. He sees and agrees with a point that will implicate him badly if llama is lynched and flips town. He's standing for it enough to at least investigate the matter.

Llama is not following suit.

FZ. wrote:Okay, I read it all. Hmm. If I hadn't read your analysis, JJJ, I probably would have said Dom looks more suspicious, though the part where she defends him plays in his favour. But from the voting patterns and the talk about her, Dom comes off worse in my opinion. He keeps saying he will look at her, but never gets to it. In addition, when he jumps all over that piling bandwagon, it's like he's keeping himself from talking about Lorab, and focusing on you and your save. Unlike you, that is what makes me feel the worst about him. He's not defending Lorab, he's trying to make you look bad.
llama did vote for Lorab. Yes, it was early, but it was his decision and even though he sometimes defends her, the bottom line is, that even when he says he hasn't really thought a lot about her, he doesn't use it as an excuse and finds a good reason to why vote for her. I didn't vote her either on day 3.5. I can't fault him for that. There was a lot of craziness going on. That said, I go back and forth on DH, and at the moment, I'm on the civvie side. So the fact he's voting for him, makes me doubt him again.
No idea which is the better vote. I'll go with you if what I said doesn't make you think differently, but tell me what you think.

The most important thing is this, I think: you agree that based on LoRab's treatment of those two in that one post, it's highly likely one of them is her team mate and the other is not -- regardless of which?

It's a tough call because I think both of them have behaved in a suspicious manner. Llama has been extremely hard to hold a conversation with in this game because he just doesn't respond to things unless you literally scream at him in caps lock. And even then, he doesn't address the point that truly matters -- he hasn't said a word about Dom specifically in light of this case even though I've asked him repeatedly. He has only talked about Dom relative to the usage of the word "suspish" and not relative to LoRab's post. It seems like every conversation I have with him, he's taken the easy way out.

"Do you think I'd have killed Golden?"

"Don't you think I would have cursed Rico?"

"I read you as civilian JJJ because I haven't seen anything to make me think you're bad." as I work diligently to get him lynched

And this is the same conduct that drove Golden to suspect llama. Golden felt llama was only answering pieces of his questions and not addressing the points that actually mattered. This is a telltale sign of fake content and fake contribution. It's how a baddie counts on players who aren't reading things thoroughly to just see the appearance of a mutual and balanced exchange when it's actually quite one-sided.

Rico do you sense any internal inconsistencies or bad logic in my reasoning here? I haven't heard any dissenting viewpoints aside maybe from Epignosis. But he just said he disagreed with something, needed more time to talk about it, and then he died.

Ricochet wrote:Did she? I thought it was someone else who said LoRabaddie would buddy civs.

Actually you might be right, I can't remember for certain.

Here's the simplest look, FZ:

LoRab wrote:
Ricochet wrote:I did a search of Dom's entire post and have found only a dozen of posts in which the word suspish appears. He himself has used it only once before, in Star Wars.

I now believe Dom is in team with someone who is inadvertedly influencing his word use during their private chatter.

Players who so far who used this word in this game are llama and LoRab.
I don't have BTSC with Dom. We are not on a baddie team together. If he is civ, then we are on the same team.

I will say that suspish is a word that was used a lot on LP and TP, which is where Dom learned to mafia. So it doesn't strike me as odd language from Dom. He also could have picked it up from me during our BTSC time in the last game.

All that said, it's not a word I'd expect to hear from Llama...so...an interesting note to keep in mind.

Buddy

Distance

She defends Dom for saying "suspish" and suspects llama for saying "suspish".

I feel like there has to be a reason for that.

FZ. wrote:Tranq, what do you have to say to all those voting for you? Why are you so unproductive this game? And if you are good, who do you think is bad among your voters?

I'm bothered by the fact llama seems uninvolved in the game. I can't tell if it's a civ tell or a bad one. JJJ, I still don't get why you feel llama is the bigger suspect. Dom has been latching on to others' suspicions a lot, and now he's asking Rico who he would vote for if he could. Question asking Dom never makes me feel very good.

linki: Wait, I admit I didn't read all the posts JJJ quoted. Did Lorab buddy up to llama and Dom, or did she distance them?

She buddied Dom and distanced from llama -- but for the exact same point Rico made. Please just read it, it's not as huge as most of my cases are. It hinges largely on one post, which is linked within this case.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:LoRab and thellama73

Spoiler: show
LoRab wrote:
thellama73 wrote:
Ricochet wrote:LoRab and llama have not butted heads over who is the better writer and poster.

confirmed fishy
I don't to butt heads. The market has determined that I am the better writer, since I get paid for it.
I get paid for it, as well. So the market hasn't determined anything.

LoRab wrote:
sig wrote:So zebra was mafia, that most likely means JJJ wasn't on her team. I did see the idea that she picked him, but this makes little sense for day 1. I think it is worth looking into the players who after Rico flipped made comments, like saying how they hope he isn't as spammy or it would be better to have lynched a baddie. I find the first group to almost be trying to weaken Rico's credit thus giving him less of an opinion and basically neutering him, and the second group to just be scummy.

I think a few mafia members were on the Rico wagon, however I also think there is a good chance that either LoRab or Llama are scum.

I don't have many civ or scum reads right know, but I do think Long Con is a civilian, and I'm leaning scum on Llama. Know here is my question do you think the early snipping that Llama and Zebra did was fabricated? It was only a little bit, but I'm curious what people think of it.

I think with Zebra's lynch it also makes it less likely that Mac is on her team.

One last thing, if Roger Rabbit was a civ role last game wouldn't it be odd for it to be a scum role this game? Could this be some sort of seemer/prankster thing? Remember Night 0 scum was able to do actions in theory they could have targeted Zebra and then killed her today. This could be a seemer role where it replaces the scum who used it, just switched the alignment, or let the seemer pick a role.
I think the chances of this are low, but then again the chances of hitting a mafia night 1 is also small.
It is possible that Llama is mafia--I am not.

LoRab wrote:
bea wrote:
LoRab wrote:What the absolute fuck?

I've caught up and holy bandwagon, batman!! Seriously, people.

There is more than one person who voted for me who either hasn't mentioned me at all and should know better (Tranq) or who has never played with me before and can't even give me the benefit to answer votes (motel room). A few others who are somewhere in the middle, but that was the most obvious late lynch bandwagon I have ever seen.

And I agree with others that it was a clear attempt to save a teammate. And noting that he didn't act like a civ who had a save to use during the lynch.

*votes JJJ*

Hi lorab. NIce to see you again. (been waiting for this post in my catsup since I read you missed the vote. All I could think is....well...she's in for a surprise..... )

Pretty clear what you think of JJ - what do you think of the rest that voted you? Who's most likely scum? Who's most likely mislead civ?
Most suspish: JJJ (though not for voting me...mainly because of the bandwagon against me which looked like it was to save him), motel room, Tranq....Golden sort of started the bandwagon, so that concerns me and bumps him up. Although maybe llama, too, for being the next to vote going by the first follower theory.

LoRab wrote:
Ricochet wrote:I did a search of Dom's entire post and have found only a dozen of posts in which the word suspish appears. He himself has used it only once before, in Star Wars.

I now believe Dom is in team with someone who is inadvertedly influencing his word use during their private chatter.

Players who so far who used this word in this game are llama and LoRab.
I don't have BTSC with Dom. We are not on a baddie team together. If he is civ, then we are on the same team.

I will say that suspish is a word that was used a lot on LP and TP, which is where Dom learned to mafia. So it doesn't strike me as odd language from Dom. He also could have picked it up from me during our BTSC time in the last game.

All that said, it's not a word I'd expect to hear from Llama...so...an interesting note to keep in mind.
The first post here is just banter. The next three are all important I think. In response to sig's suspicion, LoRab felt the need to say "llama may be bad but I'm not" instead of just "I'm not bad". In response to bea, she names a number of people she "suspects" on her bandwagon, and at the end tacks on another addendum about llama as a suspect. Then in the last quoted post here it's the same deal.

I think that last post is critically important. Click here to see why from within my Dom review.

Spoiler: show
thellama73 wrote:
Metalmarsh89 wrote:Voted LoRab for no reason.
I like your line of reasoning.

thellama73 wrote:
HamburgerBoy wrote:
Epignosis wrote:
HamburgerBoy wrote:RIP sig, sorry to see that you were town.

Now we just need to make sure that the wave of bandwagoners doesn't stay set in their ways and go back to LoRab again.

Also, the sig flip, taken together with other things, seems to strongly imply there were two intended nightkills night 1, and that DFaraday's death may have been due to something weird/unrelated.
Back?
People have been rumbling about LoRab for a while now, and she still managed a few votes day 1. Considering how many people just showed up to pile on sig, I think there's a decent chance of that happening to LoRab tomorrow if people don't broaden their horizons a bit.
Maybe the fact taht people piled on Sig means that teammates were trying to protect Lorab from her nigh inevitable lynch?

thellama73 wrote:I don't really have an opinion on Lorab at this point. I haven't found the case on her compelling. But I have noticed that sometimes when a person keeps getting almost-lynched and avoiding it, they turn out to be bad.

thellama73 wrote:Okay, I need to read a few people. I haven't given Lorab too much of a look yet, but I feel it's time I did. Epi's instincts are usually good enough not to be ignored. I agree with Rico that FZ's comment about the kills was weird, but I don't know if it's bad weird yet.

thellama73 wrote:Okay, I read Lorab, and while I'm not sold on her being bad, the thing that stuck out to me in her posts was the way she quickly got defensive, and then suddenly switched to "suspect me all you like, I don't care! I'm civ and have nothing to hide!" It's a course correction worth noting.

thellama73 wrote:Switching my vote to Lorab because I'm more familiar with the case on her than with Boomslang and because Epi's instincts are usually good.
Llama never quite provided a substantive read on LoRab. The second last quote is decently close I guess, but it doesn't inspire me. Llama seems to be precariously perched on the fence about LoRab at all times, particularly by the time Day 3.0 rolled around and the lynch became a JJJ/LoRab dichotomy. I've illustrated the duality of his LoRab posts in color. Green represents a pro-LoRab statement, yellow represents a neutral statement, and red represents an anti-LoRab statement. He could be setting himself up for either scenario -- LoRab surviving the attempts at lynching her (allowing him to maintain a semi-positive outlook), or LoRab actually being lynched (allowing him to nod to the red sections of this analysis).

~~~

llama's Day 3.0 vote was for LoRab. On Day 3.5 it was for DharmaHelper. It should be noted that his Day 3.0 vote came before most of the quick counterwagon on LoRab formed. I don't know if he could have foreseen that taking place, and after it did it'd have been hard for him to justify moving his vote again.

~~~

I think this is highly team mate-compatible, and perhaps the most team mate-indicative of any analysis I've done for LoRab interactions. LoRab's posts bear the appearance of sprinkled-in distancing efforts, because they show her talking about llama in a capacity that doesn't strike me as naturally flowing from a mindset to smear a non-team mate. The post I linked that also might implicate Dom is also a heavy factor in this perspective. I think LoRab may have accidentally exposed llama there. Llama's posts only strengthen this read for the reasons I've displayed in colors.

[/quote]

Ricochet wrote:I still hope LoRab didn't actually play into her meta card, by buddying teamie Dom instead of buddying non-teamie Dom, like expected - although...doing that would have gotten her closer to the traditional buddying teamie mistake; still, it sounds like a WIFOM worth playing, the way her game is usually implacable.

Then again, there's always Day 5 for lynching Dom nyeh nyeh neyh

It's worth noting that this is a meta she literally claimed in this game. I'm not inclined to concern myself with that.

Sorry to put all the pressure on your shoulders Rico, but this lynch might well go whatever way you command it. You have my dream role right now. I'm going to be going to sleep very soon, I just can't justify staying awake for a Mafia game and then going to work on 4 hours sleep.

Tranq wrote:JJJ what do you make of llama's Day 3.1 vote for LoRab? Between llama and Dom, who do you think is more likely to be LoRab's teammate? Do you think both of them are?

He voted for LoRab on Day 3.0. I don't think it counts for much because his vote came before the flood of late voters made her a truly viable lynch. At the time of llama's vote it was not a likely result. On Day 3.5 he voted for DharmaHelper.

I don't think both Dom and llama are. I think LoRab treated them the way she did specifically because only one of them is her team mate. It was a mistake on her part, but we have to decide whether it was Dom or llama that was exposed. I think llama is more suspicious and more connectable to LoRab than Dom is. Nobody has given me any reason to believe my reasoning might be off on this case, and I can't think of one that satisfies me. So I'm as confident as I could reasonably hope to be right now that my vote is in the right place.

Spoiler: show

I'm terrified.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:Through four days and nights, he posted around 10-15 times.

Actually it was 31 times. My eyeball guessing needs work.

juliets said earlier that Tranq's quiet start to this game reminded her of his town game in AWR (prior to his conversion/resurrection). I decided to investigate.

Tranq - A World Reborn

On one hand, juliets is right that Tranq did not post very much during his town lifespan. Through four days and nights, he posted around 10-15 times. That's very comparable to his productivity in this game. Then when he was resurrected to a different faction, his posting rate jumped significantly and he finished the game with over 200 posts.

That's not the best indicator for this lynch. However, I will say that though his post count was low, the content of those posts was definitely thicker in AWR than it has been in this game. He seemed to give half a crap in that game, which is half a crap more than he has given in this one.

Baddies right now:

Frankly, if llama thinks my case is "you said the word 'suspish'", and he claimed to understand that case...

Then I rest my case.

thellama73 wrote:Okay, I haven't really paid much attention to either Lorab or Dom this game. I admit that I missed Lorab's baddieness when others saw it. I wish I had seen it too. My interactions with Dom, as far as I remember, mainly consist of him vaguely suspecting me and me trying to rebut. This is memory, though, so I may be missing something.

A lot of people have focused on my use of the word "suspish". I don't remember using it, but okay. I get why some people might feel that I picked it up from a teammate and it's a slip, but I'll remind you that I have played a lot of mafia games here and have heard a loit of varied language. I certainly picked it up from somewhere, but it wasn't this game, because - spoiler alert - I have no teammates this game.

It's certainly possible that Dom is bad. Lynch him if you like. But I am keeping my vote on DH for now.

I don't think the word "suspish" is remotely suspicious on its own power. But I do think it's interesting that confirmed baddie made the conscious decision to treat you and Dom very differently for the same silly thing -- that word. I think she blatantly exposed one of you two as her team mate. If it's not you then it must be Dom. Do you find my reasoning faulty?

LLAMA LLAMA LLAMA LLAMA LLAMA

THELLAMA73

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:
thellama73 wrote:I don't really understand the case on Tranq. I understand the case on me, but I disagree with it. So I'm voting the person I think is bad. Sue me.
I might agree with you regarding DH. If you understand the case on you, does that mean you also understand how it applies to Dom? With that in mind, what do you think of Dom?

I also have reservations about the ease with which these 5 votes have landed on Tranq, and the last two are from players I don't have much trust for.

Ricochet wrote:Why wouldn't it, in theory, suit a baddie to not give a crap who to vote for, if they have a good window for it? (such as playing the "intentional ambiguous card" or, say, "the Vompatti code of play")

Well yeah, I guess Vompatti does exist. I also just remembered my baddie team mate in the Champs Tournament Finale (Zack) doing basically nothing but exist and vote randomly before he was replaced. So there is some precedent.

I don't think it's the best case on the table. He'll get lynched eventually though.

Ricochet wrote:Not only that.

D1: Rico (hi )
D2: Sig
D3: pileup on LoRab
D3.5: FZ, simply at my request
D4 so far: requesting me to tell him again who to vote for

Werd, it's not the best voting behavior. I have to ask though: does Tranq give a flying eff who he votes for? If the answer is no, is that a baddie trait? WIFOM I guess. I'm just used to seeing baddies give some fraction of a crap.

thellama73 wrote:I don't really understand the case on Tranq. I understand the case on me, but I disagree with it. So I'm voting the person I think is bad. Sue me.

I might agree with you regarding DH. If you understand the case on you, does that mean you also understand how it applies to Dom? With that in mind, what do you think of Dom?

The tally deadline is in 5 hours and I'm going to be asleep in about 3. C'mon y'all get this thread moving. Even if Tranq gets lynched, let's not allow the baddies to have the night off. This is where the pressure is supposed to happen.

I can only vaguely understand why some people have labeled Tranq as a top suspect. Here's my concern with him as the lynchee:

Entering this phase and in it's earliest hours there were at least two significant cases in discussion (Long Con's against me and mine against llama/Dom). If a baddie team wants to evade those cases (from your perspectives you can freely include the case against me, from mine it's distinctly the llama/Dom case), then who could be an easier guy to bandwagon than Lurker King Tranq? These are being labeled as "pressure votes", but I find myself doubting they all really are -- they're meant to stay there through the buzzer.

If Tranq is bad then I grant this is patently wrong. I just don't think there's much of a case against Tranq -- only annoyance at his post count.

Long Con wrote:Like I said, I'd go for Llama. I'm not so convinced that Dom is bad. We just have to drink to the good times and hope, my friend.

At face value I think llama has been more suspicious, and there's a more overt connection to be observed between he and LoRab than there is with Dom. So I agree. Some have asserted that they could both be baddies, but I think this is unlikely given LoRab's treatment of them. It looks to me like an attempt to buddy Dom (and make him look bad after her flip) while distancing from llama. It reminds me a lot of the MacDougall/DrWilgy dynamic from Talking Heads, when Mac pretended to pursue Doc's lynch as a manner of distancing and protected Diiny in the process (not his team mate).

Ricochet wrote:When I return from studying, I want suggestions on what my 5K post should be. Don't worry, it'll be disappointingly bland or normal, but you can afford to dream.

Tell us your favorite fruit.

Rico please make more people acknowledge my case I am pulling my hair out.

You're the boss.

thellama73 wrote:Okay, caught up. I'm still feeling bad about DH, so I am placing my vote there for now, although I'm willing to be convinced otherwise if anyone has the inclination to.

Jimmy, you are wrong about me, old friend. Wrong, wrong indeed. Do you think I killed Golden? I didn't.

I have no idea if you killed Golden. Is it confirmed he was killed by mafia? Why wouldn't you kill Golden?

What do you think of Dom?

A Tranq lynch feels very easy button. Let's lynch llama. Or maybe someone can give me a reason my case is faulty.

DharmaHelper wrote:Addressing the top part of Dom's post, I lol'd.

Me too.

Sorry Dom, I didn't even notice the dark red text.

Dom wrote:
JaggedJimmyJay wrote:
Dom wrote:
Draconus wrote:I missed a 4 way tie?? I love ties. But great result folks

I saw a couple of mentions of me and Lorab so allow me to address what I read. I thought I explained this clearly on Day 0 but there still seems to be some confusion. I didn't want to vote Lorab on Day 1 because she was doing exactly what I went after her for doing in our previous game together. I had convinced Golden to switch to her and we lynched a civ. (I should say "convinced" as Golden was bad at the time. Anyways, I've had no further mention of Lorab due a lack of time to read up on her.
For the record and for those who don't remember I gave Jay a chance to save himself with a tie on 3.0 with a vote for llama. I didn't have time to come back before the end of the Day, but if I had a chance to I woud've voted for Lorab at that time. Before anyone says "it wouldn't have mattered. Jay was up by 2 votes" 1. We still don't know for sure what caused the lynch to be cancelled. Sure we know what Jay claimed, but we can't take those at face value. 2. Matt was also still on llama. Had he come back in time, he, too could have switched to Lorab and caused a tie. Would he do that? Idk.
My point with all of this is that I felt better about Jay than I did about both Lorab and llama.

As for who I think should be lynched next: I think DH looks the worst after this result. Typing this on my phone so I'll go look for quotes after posting this to back up my argument. But I recall DH defending Lorab pretty hard core early on and a bit recently. Be back in a few.
This doesn't sit right with me.
Why?
The tone doesn't real well.

Please highlight the areas of his post that rub you the wrong way. I'm not saying you're wrong, I'm just trying to get a little evidence that you really care about this post at all.

FZ. wrote:In addition, jjj, I think this is a clash of cultures. I sometimes have no idea how people here come to the reasoning they do.

What do you think about what I said regarding the people who voted for you+ Drac and Matt (who voted for llama, but way before Lorab had the votes pile on her)? I realize you think llama is bad, but what about the others?

The votes for me that I found most suspicious belonged to ninja, juliets, and bea. Juliets has explained herself in such a way that I am given pause in suspecting her too much for it. Bea has seemed pretty genuine to me too, and she's had to play catch-up a little bit and that makes it easier to understand. I think ninja's Day 3.0 vote was quite suspicious, though it should be noted that she voted LoRab on Day 3.5 (making it 5-4-4 JJJ-LoRab-MM), assuming Rico's spreadsheet is accurate.

I also have plenty of suspicion to spare for DharmaHelper, though it's possible his mistake was a matter of culture clash/being afraid of a good wagon shift.

Ricochet wrote:The curse scenario needs to be clarified. Also, what are you implying? That it wasn't real? Wasn't the curse real because you posted in a cursed way?

FFS. No I'm not freaking saying the curse wasn't real. What? *beats face against brick wall over and over*

Ricochet wrote:Com'on, that's a stretch. We already have a dead civvie (Barry Allen) who could have tried to work his guessing magic and revealed roles. Why not assume another, or an indy, can be up to the same task (either via checking, tracking, or [Secrets])? Intentional mafia smearing? This is a bit of an anxious viewpoint, coming from you.

I said I don't know how it happened. That's literally what I said. Those things you listed are possibilities. So is the thing I said. I don't know why it's any more a "stretch" than any other theory would be, especially when there's clearly a scenario that can be drawn out right now to describe what I suggested -- perhaps Long Con's mafia team pulls this move so he can yet again design a theory for me being a bad guy based around something I can't control or defend against.

Sorry Rico I'm not trying to lose my shit here. Oh my goodness this is frustrating.

Dom wrote:
Draconus wrote:I missed a 4 way tie?? I love ties. But great result folks

I saw a couple of mentions of me and Lorab so allow me to address what I read. I thought I explained this clearly on Day 0 but there still seems to be some confusion. I didn't want to vote Lorab on Day 1 because she was doing exactly what I went after her for doing in our previous game together. I had convinced Golden to switch to her and we lynched a civ. (I should say "convinced" as Golden was bad at the time. Anyways, I've had no further mention of Lorab due a lack of time to read up on her.
For the record and for those who don't remember I gave Jay a chance to save himself with a tie on 3.0 with a vote for llama. I didn't have time to come back before the end of the Day, but if I had a chance to I woud've voted for Lorab at that time. Before anyone says "it wouldn't have mattered. Jay was up by 2 votes" 1. We still don't know for sure what caused the lynch to be cancelled. Sure we know what Jay claimed, but we can't take those at face value. 2. Matt was also still on llama. Had he come back in time, he, too could have switched to Lorab and caused a tie. Would he do that? Idk.
My point with all of this is that I felt better about Jay than I did about both Lorab and llama.

As for who I think should be lynched next: I think DH looks the worst after this result. Typing this on my phone so I'll go look for quotes after posting this to back up my argument. But I recall DH defending Lorab pretty hard core early on and a bit recently. Be back in a few.
This doesn't sit right with me.

Why?

Long Con wrote:
JaggedJimmyJay wrote:
Long Con wrote:He had no problem with people theorizing he was Duncan before due to his lynch stop, but now he doesn't know what Duncan Idaho is. Uh-huh. You decide whatcha gonna do.
Actually I had every problem with it -- I claimed my role because I was sick to death of people speculating about the freaking lynch stop. And we're still doing it. This has seriously been the most annoying game I've ever played in.
Ok, so you survived a lynch, and a baddie role has been revealed that can survive a lynch, and another baddie has been revealed that could control the Position for the phase in which you were lynched... and you don't want anyone to talk about it. A man's got a right to talk about what's on his mind, and this is pretty relevant stuff to consider.

But oh yeah, I forgot. You already told us that you're a civ that survives a lynch. We must be deaf or something.

Talk about whatever you like, but be aware that if you're a civilian you've wasted more of this thread's time than anyone else. I know that wouldn't be your fault, you'd be trying to do the right thing. But it's the wrong thing. I've defended myself so dang much already, I've provided this thread more content than anyone else (yes, including those with more posts), and more importantly...

I FOUND A MAFIOSO. IF I'M WRONG ABOUT THIS THEN TELL MY WHY YOU THINK SO. BUT IT'S RIGHT THERE.

At least look at it Long Con. Continue thinking I'm the baddiest baddie in Baddietown if that's what you think is best, but for the love of God take a moment's break from your JJJ-focus that has devoured your game for days and days and look at this:

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:LoRab and thellama73

Spoiler: show
LoRab wrote:
thellama73 wrote:
Ricochet wrote:LoRab and llama have not butted heads over who is the better writer and poster.

confirmed fishy
I don't to butt heads. The market has determined that I am the better writer, since I get paid for it.
I get paid for it, as well. So the market hasn't determined anything.

LoRab wrote:
sig wrote:So zebra was mafia, that most likely means JJJ wasn't on her team. I did see the idea that she picked him, but this makes little sense for day 1. I think it is worth looking into the players who after Rico flipped made comments, like saying how they hope he isn't as spammy or it would be better to have lynched a baddie. I find the first group to almost be trying to weaken Rico's credit thus giving him less of an opinion and basically neutering him, and the second group to just be scummy.

I think a few mafia members were on the Rico wagon, however I also think there is a good chance that either LoRab or Llama are scum.

I don't have many civ or scum reads right know, but I do think Long Con is a civilian, and I'm leaning scum on Llama. Know here is my question do you think the early snipping that Llama and Zebra did was fabricated? It was only a little bit, but I'm curious what people think of it.

I think with Zebra's lynch it also makes it less likely that Mac is on her team.

One last thing, if Roger Rabbit was a civ role last game wouldn't it be odd for it to be a scum role this game? Could this be some sort of seemer/prankster thing? Remember Night 0 scum was able to do actions in theory they could have targeted Zebra and then killed her today. This could be a seemer role where it replaces the scum who used it, just switched the alignment, or let the seemer pick a role.
I think the chances of this are low, but then again the chances of hitting a mafia night 1 is also small.
It is possible that Llama is mafia--I am not.

LoRab wrote:
bea wrote:
LoRab wrote:What the absolute fuck?

I've caught up and holy bandwagon, batman!! Seriously, people.

There is more than one person who voted for me who either hasn't mentioned me at all and should know better (Tranq) or who has never played with me before and can't even give me the benefit to answer votes (motel room). A few others who are somewhere in the middle, but that was the most obvious late lynch bandwagon I have ever seen.

And I agree with others that it was a clear attempt to save a teammate. And noting that he didn't act like a civ who had a save to use during the lynch.

*votes JJJ*

Hi lorab. NIce to see you again. (been waiting for this post in my catsup since I read you missed the vote. All I could think is....well...she's in for a surprise..... )

Pretty clear what you think of JJ - what do you think of the rest that voted you? Who's most likely scum? Who's most likely mislead civ?
Most suspish: JJJ (though not for voting me...mainly because of the bandwagon against me which looked like it was to save him), motel room, Tranq....Golden sort of started the bandwagon, so that concerns me and bumps him up. Although maybe llama, too, for being the next to vote going by the first follower theory.

LoRab wrote:
Ricochet wrote:I did a search of Dom's entire post and have found only a dozen of posts in which the word suspish appears. He himself has used it only once before, in Star Wars.

I now believe Dom is in team with someone who is inadvertedly influencing his word use during their private chatter.

Players who so far who used this word in this game are llama and LoRab.
I don't have BTSC with Dom. We are not on a baddie team together. If he is civ, then we are on the same team.

I will say that suspish is a word that was used a lot on LP and TP, which is where Dom learned to mafia. So it doesn't strike me as odd language from Dom. He also could have picked it up from me during our BTSC time in the last game.

All that said, it's not a word I'd expect to hear from Llama...so...an interesting note to keep in mind.
The first post here is just banter. The next three are all important I think. In response to sig's suspicion, LoRab felt the need to say "llama may be bad but I'm not" instead of just "I'm not bad". In response to bea, she names a number of people she "suspects" on her bandwagon, and at the end tacks on another addendum about llama as a suspect. Then in the last quoted post here it's the same deal.

I think that last post is critically important. Click here to see why from within my Dom review.

Spoiler: show
thellama73 wrote:
Metalmarsh89 wrote:Voted LoRab for no reason.
I like your line of reasoning.

thellama73 wrote:
HamburgerBoy wrote:
Epignosis wrote:
HamburgerBoy wrote:RIP sig, sorry to see that you were town.

Now we just need to make sure that the wave of bandwagoners doesn't stay set in their ways and go back to LoRab again.

Also, the sig flip, taken together with other things, seems to strongly imply there were two intended nightkills night 1, and that DFaraday's death may have been due to something weird/unrelated.
Back?
People have been rumbling about LoRab for a while now, and she still managed a few votes day 1. Considering how many people just showed up to pile on sig, I think there's a decent chance of that happening to LoRab tomorrow if people don't broaden their horizons a bit.
Maybe the fact taht people piled on Sig means that teammates were trying to protect Lorab from her nigh inevitable lynch?

thellama73 wrote:I don't really have an opinion on Lorab at this point. I haven't found the case on her compelling. But I have noticed that sometimes when a person keeps getting almost-lynched and avoiding it, they turn out to be bad.

thellama73 wrote:Okay, I need to read a few people. I haven't given Lorab too much of a look yet, but I feel it's time I did. Epi's instincts are usually good enough not to be ignored. I agree with Rico that FZ's comment about the kills was weird, but I don't know if it's bad weird yet.

thellama73 wrote:Okay, I read Lorab, and while I'm not sold on her being bad, the thing that stuck out to me in her posts was the way she quickly got defensive, and then suddenly switched to "suspect me all you like, I don't care! I'm civ and have nothing to hide!" It's a course correction worth noting.

thellama73 wrote:Switching my vote to Lorab because I'm more familiar with the case on her than with Boomslang and because Epi's instincts are usually good.
Llama never quite provided a substantive read on LoRab. The second last quote is decently close I guess, but it doesn't inspire me. Llama seems to be precariously perched on the fence about LoRab at all times, particularly by the time Day 3.0 rolled around and the lynch became a JJJ/LoRab dichotomy. I've illustrated the duality of his LoRab posts in color. Green represents a pro-LoRab statement, yellow represents a neutral statement, and red represents an anti-LoRab statement. He could be setting himself up for either scenario -- LoRab surviving the attempts at lynching her (allowing him to maintain a semi-positive outlook), or LoRab actually being lynched (allowing him to nod to the red sections of this analysis).

~~~

llama's Day 3.0 vote was for LoRab. On Day 3.5 it was for DharmaHelper. It should be noted that his Day 3.0 vote came before most of the quick counterwagon on LoRab formed. I don't know if he could have foreseen that taking place, and after it did it'd have been hard for him to justify moving his vote again.

~~~

I think this is highly team mate-compatible, and perhaps the most team mate-indicative of any analysis I've done for LoRab interactions. LoRab's posts bear the appearance of sprinkled-in distancing efforts, because they show her talking about llama in a capacity that doesn't strike me as naturally flowing from a mindset to smear a non-team mate. The post I linked that also might implicate Dom is also a heavy factor in this perspective. I think LoRab may have accidentally exposed llama there. Llama's posts only strengthen this read for the reasons I've displayed in colors.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:LoRab and Dom

Spoiler: show
LoRab wrote:
Ricochet wrote:I did a search of Dom's entire post and have found only a dozen of posts in which the word suspish appears. He himself has used it only once before, in Star Wars.

I now believe Dom is in team with someone who is inadvertedly influencing his word use during their private chatter.

Players who so far who used this word in this game are llama and LoRab.
I don't have BTSC with Dom. We are not on a baddie team together. If he is civ, then we are on the same team.

I will say that suspish is a word that was used a lot on LP and TP, which is where Dom learned to mafia. So it doesn't strike me as odd language from Dom. He also could have picked it up from me during our BTSC time in the last game.

All that said, it's not a word I'd expect to hear from Llama...so...an interesting note to keep in mind.
This is the only non-OT post in which LoRab acknowledges Dom, but it's a fantastic post for analysis.

She straight up said Rico's "suspish" thing should not implicate Dom. Of course she'd say that because it also implicated her, but that doesn't inherently mean she's lying about this.

This is the most interesting sentence in the entire game so far, in my opinion. I feel like llama's relationship with LoRab, and perhaps even Dom's by association, can be found in this content.

We've confirmed that LoRab was a baddie. She pooh-poohed Rico's "suspish" point as a point against Dom. She encouraged it as a point against llama. This has to mean something. Pool your minds upon this post and tell me what you think. Is she protecting team mate Dom and redirecting attention to non-team mate llama? Is she buddying non-team mate Dom and redirecting attention to team mate (but unlikely-to-be-lynched) llama? What inspired her to say this about llama? I feel like this is a billboard sign with a fluorescent light perimeter and blinking text on a busy highway that reads: "EITHER DOM OR LLAMA IS MY TEAM MATE."

Now I don't think LoRab did this on purpose of course. I'm asserting this would be a significant error by her. Y'all talk to me about this. I'm excited.

Spoiler: show
Dom wrote:
Epignosis wrote:
Lorab has interacted more with Ricochet than any other person so far, so why does the possibility of her vote hinge on what others have pointed out? Her stance is disingenuous. That's why.
This is a good point.

I await LoRab's response.

Dom wrote:
DharmaHelper wrote:Oi real quick before I clock out tonight, Anybody wanna talk about why the fuck the thread says "Day 3.0" and not "Day 3"
you could read the thread and find out!

Epignosis wrote:What's with the hesitation on Lorab? I suspect her because of her wording regarding Ricochet, and her response was too measured, too kind. Black Rock claims to read Lorab well and says she's bad (and I believe her, because Lorab's tone is a mystery to me and I've only played a handful of times with her). Is that not a one-two punch? What's the deal? Lynch her already and be done. Then see where we stand.

That's my position. Still.
I suspected LoRab earlier, so I'll look into those reasons again.

Dom wrote:Sorsha, I do think it's weird. It's almost like the pile on of votes on Lorab was a paper thin save attempt on JJJ.
I could have included more quotes/content here, but they're all related to Dom's suspicion of the LoRab wagon relative to FZ and I. Check his ISO if you want to see more of them -- it's also a heavy component of current discussion. I've left them out so the spoiler isn't unnecessarily huge.

Dom lent a little support to one of Epi's earliest points against LoRab, but he didn't seem to revisit this suspicion later. He acknowledged it again on Day 3.0 and pledged to revisit the case, but after that he went full speed ahead against me instead. He never voted for her either as far as I can tell. That's not the best look. He really didn't do much of anything with LoRab other than accuse other people for their votes on her based upon the notion that I was saved. This means he wasn't necessarily defending LoRab, he was just attacking me. That could mean he was genuinely perturbed by her wagon similarly to DH, but if that's the case I'd ask the same questions about his willingness to critically think that I've asked about DH.

~~~

Dom voted for me on Days 3.0 and 3.5.

~~~

I think this relationship is team mate-compatible and perhaps even team-mate indicative. My biggest doubt stems from first colorful point I made in which LoRab defended Dom and attacked llama instead. That's a calculated move, because if both of them or neither of them are on her team then I don't know what would inspire her to say that. I want to hear about that component of this analysis from a number of people -- I would really appreciate it. I think it's very useful data and it would be wasteful not to discuss it thoroughly.

I'm going to post this analysis by itself to encourage that.

Long Con wrote:He had no problem with people theorizing he was Duncan before due to his lynch stop, but now he doesn't know what Duncan Idaho is. Uh-huh. You decide whatcha gonna do.

Actually I had every problem with it -- I claimed my role because I was sick to death of people speculating about the freaking lynch stop. And we're still doing it. This has seriously been the most annoying game I've ever played in.

I was immune to my first lynch or night kill. I'm not Duncan Idaho. I don't know what that role is/was. Maybe it's similar; I didn't play in whatever game that's from.

Voting for thellama73.

If you don't know why, refer to my LoRab review about him (which will direct you to the review about Dom, so you could just go there instead if you want).

I'm not Duncan Idaho. I don't even know what that is.

Oh joy, another reason to waste time talking about JJJ.

I can hardly even follow the thread of the theories y'all are throwing out there, but this is where it should be stopping hard and with finality:

Ricochet wrote:-- teamie JJJ could have faked the emoji curse, following a Night 0 in which teamie zebra had no position to curse; zebra got then rekt, but we weren't careful at her role's phrasing to tell there couldn't be any emoji curse on D1

If you think I'd fake a curse in a scenario where it wouldn't actually suit my partner's role -- i.e. it'd be impossible for that curse to be real -- then you don't know anything about me as a Mafia player. I don't just rely on people to miss details.

I don't know what mechanic allows for these roles to be revealed, but I'm just going to assume the baddies dropped it in the thread so y'all can tinfoil me all day. If not, they're still loving it.

Meanwhile, one of Dom/llama is pretty clearly a bad guy, so you can go ahead and direct your focuses that way. I don't have time today to provide much, but I might tomorrow.

HamburgerBoy wrote:What makes you put MetalMarsh immediately below Dom/Llama? I could agree with it in the "compatible but not indicative" sense of things but compared to people like Wilgy that have the supportive post history and the questionable voting records, I'd put MM towards the bottom of the lynch. Otherwise, I think I mostly agree with your analysis. I'm also leaning civvie on Long Con only because he's had some interactions with Dom that look like too obvious of buddying from the latter to be scummates, but of course Dom isn't a 100% done deal yet.

To be fair my read on MM might not be as much about his LoRab interactions as his behavior in general. I could move him to a lower place on that list without caring very much. He is a significant suspect though. Doc too. Long Con is a tough call for me because I have been the focus of his workload the last few phases. I think he's made really bad cases on me and that is inherently going to cloud my perspective of him in general.

What do you think of the llama/Dom dichotomy I've drawn out?

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