The Syndicate

FZ wanted LC's head all game long. Civilian.

Long Con wrote: ↑Tue Jan 23, 2018 1:04 am

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Tue Jan 23, 2018 1:02 am Good game LC and LoRab.

That comes across really sarcastically given the reality.

I promise I didn't intend it that way. The speedchuck case had me going!

Last one:

The Poes are lurking just outside your window, and they are hungry for your soul.

Good game LC and LoRab.

novaselinenever wrote: ↑Tue Jan 23, 2018 12:47 am

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Tue Jan 23, 2018 12:45 am

MacDougall wrote: ↑Tue Jan 23, 2018 12:43 am I'd lynch several people before Nova at this point.

I'll await verification on the LC flip. If it goes according to plan, I'd lynch zero people before NVN.

If he flips scums, how does that make me scum ? Weren't I going after him until I figured something else ?

You sure were. Until you figure something else.

Whatever that is.

MacDougall wrote: ↑Tue Jan 23, 2018 12:45 am

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Tue Jan 23, 2018 12:45 am

MacDougall wrote: ↑Tue Jan 23, 2018 12:43 am I'd lynch several people before Nova at this point.

I'll await verification on the LC flip. If it goes according to plan, I'd lynch zero people before NVN.

So if he flips civ you think that's a good look for Nova?

I'm not sure anything would look "good" for him. A civilian flip at least removes some of the most apparent WTF value from his voting behavior today.

MacDougall wrote: ↑Tue Jan 23, 2018 12:43 am I'd lynch several people before Nova at this point.

I'll await verification on the LC flip. If it goes according to plan, I'd lynch zero people before NVN.

Sweet WIFOM Dizzy vote

novaselinenever wrote: ↑Tue Jan 23, 2018 12:39 am

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Tue Jan 23, 2018 12:34 am

novaselinenever wrote: ↑Tue Jan 23, 2018 12:33 am @JaggedJimmyJay You've been flip flopping a lot between me and LC

Is that right? What do you think about that?

A Townie having doubts and not too sure who to vote.

Then why did you think that was worth saying to me? I already know my alignment and I already know that I am moving my vote around.

The legacy left behind is: "my only counterwagon is bad"

novaselinenever wrote: ↑Tue Jan 23, 2018 12:33 am @JaggedJimmyJay You've been flip flopping a lot between me and LC

Is that right? What do you think about that?

Long Con wrote: ↑Tue Jan 23, 2018 12:27 am

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Tue Jan 23, 2018 12:23 am

Long Con wrote: ↑Tue Jan 23, 2018 12:21 am I don't even know the issue here. We're not in lylo or mylo or whatever. Lynch me tomorrow if you're not satisfied.

This is the most bored plea I've ever seen.

Despair can look like boredom. It doesn't seem like anyone is willing to give me the benefit of the doubt just once. I'm sorry that I haven't been able to always be so participatory in this game.

Maybe just forget the proving thing. It's kind of sketchy at this point anyway, I haven't actually confirmed with the host that it's cool. Get me out of the way, and you'll probably be looking at NVN tomorrow, and we can still win.

Legacy reads beyond NVN?

MacDougall wrote: ↑Tue Jan 23, 2018 12:25 am Where's the Long Con defender?

Do you think someone would be defending him if he's bad?

Long Con wrote: ↑Tue Jan 23, 2018 12:24 am And yet, I know that I'm 100% positive that I was being honest. I have no recollection of that, Kyle.

How about what FZ did to you in Currents?

Sloonei wrote: ↑Tue Jan 23, 2018 12:22 am I don't interpret this as a power claim.

Agreed.

Long Con wrote: ↑Tue Jan 23, 2018 12:21 am I don't even know the issue here. We're not in lylo or mylo or whatever. Lynch me tomorrow if you're not satisfied.

This is the most bored plea I've ever seen.

Draw Tevye's check in the night phase = no civilian is protected and no BTSC is located.

Long Con wrote: ↑Tue Jan 23, 2018 12:13 am I don't actually know that trick. I can't recall ever seeing that trick.

Nobody reveal your Civ powers.

What do you think of NVN if you make the following assumption:

He did not intend to actually claim information and instead worded his suspicion of you awkwardly because he isn't familiar with Syndicate jargon?

MacDougall wrote: ↑Tue Jan 23, 2018 12:14 am

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Tue Jan 23, 2018 12:13 am

MacDougall wrote: ↑Tue Jan 23, 2018 12:13 am Jimmy care to do a quick interaction analysis between Long Con and Marmot?

I'm going to take "quick" very literally. Now is not the time to go digging.

No I really do mean quick. Just ctrl f and skim read it.

They were a bit chummy and silly early in the game. Otherwise the interaction is focused on LC's resistance to your suspicion of Marmot. They're compatible technically, though I do think it'd be a connection LC would entirely expect people to draw.

MacDougall wrote: ↑Tue Jan 23, 2018 12:13 am Jimmy care to do a quick interaction analysis between Long Con and Marmot?

I'm going to take "quick" very literally. Now is not the time to go digging.

MacDougall wrote: ↑Tue Jan 23, 2018 12:10 am Wait Nova wants to lynch Marmot. I'm confused now. What is this defense even anyway?

novaselinenever wrote: ↑Mon Jan 22, 2018 1:42 pm

Sloonei wrote: ↑Mon Jan 22, 2018 1:11 pm we're also going to have to figure out what to do with NVN sooner or later. He seems to be stretched pretty thin mafia-wise, and it doesn't appear that he's going to dump a load of content on us any time soon. His spot seems doomed to sit around in single-digit posts for this game. As the POE pool continues to shrink, his spot does not budge.

The only info I would have is that I think you guys are right about LC, but wrong about him. He reads Mafia and I don't see any case being made of him as Town

Interpret that however you may.

I see only one role with the guarantee of being provable (other than those which would render the tally irrelevant), the triple voter. That one shouldn't require tomorrow.

Otherwise it's the BTSC dude, begging a fortunate target -- otherwise no proof.

Well actually it's 45 minutes now.

Long Con wrote: ↑Mon Jan 22, 2018 11:55 pm LOL... hi everyone. Just got off work, and this is so overwhelming. Everyone came out to see me! Me!

I am not a baddie. I am Civ. I can prove it if you give me one chance.

I moved. By all means, please do your thing. There's an hour, so move fast.

Now y'all went back to LC before me and I look like the tag-a-long.

novaselinenever wrote: ↑Mon Jan 22, 2018 10:46 pm I don't think I can share more than that at the moment.

Can you answer this question:

Why would you prefer to lynch Marmot over Long Con?

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Mon Jan 22, 2018 9:47 pm I moved my vote to Sloonei. I do not suspect Sloonei.

Actually meh, I put it on NVN.

I moved my vote to Sloonei. I do not suspect Sloonei.

novaselinenever wrote: ↑Mon Jan 22, 2018 1:42 pm

Sloonei wrote: ↑Mon Jan 22, 2018 1:11 pm we're also going to have to figure out what to do with NVN sooner or later. He seems to be stretched pretty thin mafia-wise, and it doesn't appear that he's going to dump a load of content on us any time soon. His spot seems doomed to sit around in single-digit posts for this game. As the POE pool continues to shrink, his spot does not budge.

The only info I would have is that I think you guys are right about LC, but wrong about him. He reads Mafia and I don't see any case being made of him as Town

I don't think this is a claim for role-based information. He used the word awkwardly to start a sentence ending with a mafia read on LC. It's Syndicate jargon tripping people up.

Marmot wrote: ↑Mon Jan 22, 2018 9:39 pm

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Mon Jan 22, 2018 9:38 pm Wondering if the mafia team is just LC and NVN and this is that easy.

Here have a vote.

Why is that easy? Why would nova come into the thread, suggest info on his teammate, and vote for someone he think is independent?

I don't interpret him as having claimed to have actual information. That's against the rules anyway. I think he used the word to indicate his "read".

Wondering if the mafia team is just LC and NVN and this is that easy.

Marmot wrote: ↑Mon Jan 22, 2018 9:35 pm

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Mon Jan 22, 2018 9:34 pm

Marmot wrote: ↑Mon Jan 22, 2018 9:33 pm But I've got a solid gut feeling that one of the more perceptive players in this game is the other mafia member. In that shortlist, I would include MacDougall, Jay, and Sloonei.

Any idea what gives you that vibe?

Your oopsie.

Such butter fingers.

Marmot wrote: ↑Mon Jan 22, 2018 9:33 pm But I've got a solid gut feeling that one of the more perceptive players in this game is the other mafia member. In that shortlist, I would include MacDougall, Jay, and Sloonei.

Any idea what gives you that vibe?

nutella wrote: ↑Mon Jan 22, 2018 9:26 pm Jay voted for Marmot. Since he said "oops I slipped" I believe it to be a forced vote.

Nah I'm good.

Marmot wrote: ↑Mon Jan 22, 2018 9:25 pm

Kylemii wrote: ↑Mon Jan 22, 2018 9:18 pm

nutella wrote: ↑Mon Jan 22, 2018 9:03 pm

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Mon Jan 22, 2018 8:52 pm Oops, I slipped.

Marmot's bad. Thanks, Marmot.

wait what happened?

Clearly I've missed something.

I have to run in like 10 minutes and won't be around.

What just happened?

You should use that time to say who's bad.

novaselinenever wrote: ↑Mon Jan 22, 2018 1:42 pm

Sloonei wrote: ↑Mon Jan 22, 2018 1:11 pm we're also going to have to figure out what to do with NVN sooner or later. He seems to be stretched pretty thin mafia-wise, and it doesn't appear that he's going to dump a load of content on us any time soon. His spot seems doomed to sit around in single-digit posts for this game. As the POE pool continues to shrink, his spot does not budge.

The only info I would have is that I think you guys are right about LC, but wrong about him. He reads Mafia and I don't see any case being made of him as Town

novaselinenever wrote: ↑Mon Jan 22, 2018 3:14 pm

Sloonei wrote: ↑Mon Jan 22, 2018 3:07 pm

novaselinenever wrote: ↑Mon Jan 22, 2018 2:35 pmMac 2nd Mafia/3rd Party
Marmot 2nd Mafia/3rd Party

I'm interested in these reads, NVN. You list them both as potentially being either mafia or 3rd party. what stands out about these two, and which do you think is more likely to be mafia, and which is more likely to be 3rd party?

I've been following their quarrel since the beginning of the game. There isn't a lot of substance behind it, it just felt like two scum going at each other and trying to gain Town credits by lynching a scum.
I'm leaning towards Macdougall being the Mafia and Marmot being the 3rd Party. I didn't like how he put his vote on Marmot early D1. His whole reasoning was based on the fact that he usually find Mafia that are missed by most people. He even admitted that Marmot's content read Town but his scum read was a gut feeling lol.

*looks at poll*

Oops, I slipped.

Kylemii wrote: ↑Mon Jan 22, 2018 7:35 pm

FZ. wrote: ↑Mon Jan 22, 2018 6:05 pmKyle, can you remind me who you think the rest of the baddies are?

hm? sorry? I haven't claimed to have any idea of who the third mafia member could be. I think LC is a good place to start.

If LC flips mafia that leaves us 5 (correct math?) tries and 240 hours to find the third member, with like 4 or 5 info roles to guide our lynches. I'm not really worried about our chances.

Do you have any alternative suspects?

LoRab wrote: ↑Sat Jan 20, 2018 5:57 pm

Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Thu Jan 18, 2018 7:49 pm Reason for reading Nut as town is basically emotional tone from her posts. She also doesn't seem to get flinched and have views I can follow and rather agree with. To be fair we did (I think both) genuinly misread each other when we were on opposite scum teams, but that is a difference dynamic anyway. She reads genuine to me.

Reason for suspecting FZ is just an apologetic tone and always being on the back burner. I also don't think she vibes very different than from the one game I've played with her when she was scum (but I was also scum with her and knew her alignment then). Content is little and a bit vague.

Btw, LoRab's posts are reading very vague and scummy to me. I think Epig mentioned him having misread her before, but they seem like very "general typical scum" posts afaic. Players with meta on her, what do you think?

MacDoug, What's your reasoning for Nut and FZ read?

I don't think we've ever played together. So, hi. Nice to meet you. This is generaly how I play--my posts often seem like they are "general typical scum" to those who have come from more typical gaming sites than those I have ever played on. If you have any specific questions, I'm happy to answer them. Other than that, you don't really give me anything to defend on.

I don't think this was faked, meaning LoRab's first interaction with Dizzy on this site or elsewhere was right here (instead of in BTSC on Day 0/1). One might suspect that it was faked, and even if so I think there's more good evidence in Dizzy's favor in their own post history. They made LoRab a consistent target of suspicion in a way that I don't think looks like typical distancing.

FZ. wrote: ↑Mon Jan 22, 2018 6:15 pm

MacDougall wrote: ↑Mon Jan 22, 2018 6:12 pm

FZ. wrote: ↑Mon Jan 22, 2018 6:10 pm

MacDougall wrote: ↑Mon Jan 22, 2018 6:08 pm

FZ. wrote: ↑Mon Jan 22, 2018 6:07 pm LC was one of the people who found something fishy about Kyle at the beginning of the game. For anyone playing on his team when he was bad, does he tend to accuse him team mates in early stages?

My first game with LC was a Mafia teammate and we went at each other on day 1 and I accidentally got him lynched iirc.

Did you start it or him? He doesn't strike me as a player who would point fingers at a fellow mafia unless it is necessary. You on the other hand, do

I can't remember. It was at the start of Talking Heads if you want to look it up.

I'm too lazy

I'm not.

Long Con started it. I'm sure they talked about it in BTSC first though.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Mon Jan 22, 2018 6:02 pm

MacDougall wrote: ↑Mon Jan 22, 2018 6:00 pm Jimmy the rainbow in which I had LoRab as in the second lowest tier was speedchucks that I copied.

Oh, that explains a lot.

In this case the connection between Mac and LoRab is at least diminished from "Mac's read on her was all over the place" to "Mac read her as a civilian". It's still a connection, but not quite as noteworthy.

MacDougall wrote: ↑Mon Jan 22, 2018 6:00 pm Jimmy the rainbow in which I had LoRab as in the second lowest tier was speedchucks that I copied.

Oh, that explains a lot.

If there's one thing working in Mac's favor given that interactive analysis, it's that he has compiled over 200 posts and LoRab never mentioned him once. I get the impression that most aafia veterans like LoRab aren't going to ignore a highly active teammate's existence to that degree.

Marmot wrote: ↑Mon Jan 22, 2018 5:49 pm

FZ. wrote: ↑Mon Jan 22, 2018 3:34 pm I think that at this point, after losing 1/3 of the team so fast, the mafia wouldn't let Wilgy be that quiet

Do mafia teams do this?

I do often try to motivate my quietest teammates into action. They still have to care though, which is out of my hands. I'd expect most of the competitive/loudmouth types to be like that. LoRab not so much.

LoRab and MacDougall

LoRab didn't mention Mac.


Decent serving of biscuits with WIFOM gravy.


LoRab is in the second-lowest tier of a Day 1 rainbow.

That represents a fall from the prior vague civilian read. Mac should talk about what changed.

Green in the "might as well be absent" group later on Day 1.

This read is certainly all over the place so far.


Decent prod. I asked her a very similar question about her vague mafia read on Epignosis.


Still green in the next "might as well be absent" group on Day 1.

Okay.

Same place after Daisy lynch, but with a lighter shade of green.

Okay.

Prodded Epi about his call to deal with LoRab and FZ who'd voted for him and went to sleep.

He said these two names seemed "rather random". That's not my favorite thing, because Epi's purpose for focusing on the two of them is clearly stated in the post being addressed. Those are the two who voted Epignosis on Day 1 and then bailed from the thread for sleepytime. That's not a random selection.

His teammate interaction things on Night 1 show most players as "null" next to LoRab. Exceptions: JJJ (unlikely) and Kyle (possible). I can't remember if he pursued Kyle post-LoRab lynch. I'll look after this.


The first sentence was in response to speedchuck, who'd included LoRab as a red skittle along with Dyslexicon and Sloonei. So he followed that up with a prod of Sloonei about LoRab. It's fair. I need to see what he did with this to judge.

-- It appears he didn't go with it. His next post indicates that he doesn't think Sloonei fits as a teammate of anyone else.

==========

After LoRab's lynch


Sloonei noted the same thing I did and asked about it. Mac pledged to dig. He dug:


He didn't care for Kyle's drunk chatter. It must be noted that this incident occurred well after Mac had originally drawn a "possible" connection between LoRab and Kyle, so this can't have been the original inspiration for that. I see no further expansion, so this has not been addressed.

~~~

Conclusion -- Mac's early read on LoRab was a bit of a roller coaster. It isn't clear why, so I think that needs to be cleared up. That on its own power represents one of the more significant connections any player in this game has to LoRab regardless of whether it's interpreted to be good or bad, and it should be considered an important point of discussion. He's a valid tinfoil prospect.

MacDougall wrote: ↑Mon Jan 22, 2018 5:18 pm To be honest Sloonei I started the analysis expecting better results. The outcome was rather underwhelming. Hence why I haven't done much with it.

Got any priority suspects right now other than Marmot?

DrWilgy wrote: ↑Mon Jan 22, 2018 4:45 pm

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Mon Jan 22, 2018 3:37 pm

FZ. wrote: ↑Mon Jan 22, 2018 3:34 pm I think that at this point, after losing 1/3 of the team so fast, the mafia wouldn't let Wilgy be that quiet

After Vocaroo 2 (mafia Wilgy made 2 posts in five day phases), I'm not sure they have a choice.

Yup. I do my own thing.

What's up people? Last thing I saw was LoRab be bad and die.

Yep, that happened. How's it going, Wilgy? Everything jolly? Happen to think anything of anyone's play in this thing?

I'll make him a priority for an interactive check later.

I think for some or many of us, Mac vaulted from being a less conclusive read to a solid civilian read after the Spacedaisy lynch when he began to investigate potential connections and narrow down possible relationships. Does anyone read him as a civilian for a reason other than this, and do we feel that this is sufficient reason for him to have enjoyed such a position of comfort?

FZ. wrote: ↑Mon Jan 22, 2018 3:34 pm I think that at this point, after losing 1/3 of the team so fast, the mafia wouldn't let Wilgy be that quiet

After Vocaroo 2 (mafia Wilgy made 2 posts in five day phases), I'm not sure they have a choice.