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Return to “Highway Heist (MAFIA WIN)”
- by JaggedJimmyJay
- Tue Mar 01, 2022 2:54 pm
- Forum: Previous Heists
- Topic: Highway Heist (MAFIA WIN)
- Replies: 3198
- Views: 53485
- by JaggedJimmyJay
- Tue Mar 01, 2022 2:52 pm
- Forum: Previous Heists
- Topic: Highway Heist (MAFIA WIN)
- Replies: 3198
- Views: 53485
Re: Highway Heist (Day 2)
For the crowd:
If MR/Dizzy contains one but not two, which do you feel is most likely and [if you feel like it] why?
If MR/Dizzy contains one but not two, which do you feel is most likely and [if you feel like it] why?
- by JaggedJimmyJay
- Tue Mar 01, 2022 2:51 pm
- Forum: Previous Heists
- Topic: Highway Heist (MAFIA WIN)
- Replies: 3198
- Views: 53485
Re: Highway Heist (Day 2)
@NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME, this methodology strikes me as 451ian, perhaps Ellibereth-school. Can you corroborate that and/or whether it’s something you associate with NAA?NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Tue Mar 01, 2022 2:27 pm @JaggedJimmyJay I'm going to vaguely explain why Mac is mafia without giving away the read entirely.
Let's assume that Mac is mafia, then we can assume that there is a certain agenda to his posts. I'm not going to guess too much as to how this would work.
Now, let's assume that Mac is town... Well then we can assume that he is playing without an agenda, which should roughly demonstrate a random distribution as to the alignment of people he's communicating with.
The random distribution would not necessarily be the game!rand distribution, but leaning towards mac!reads rand distribution. I'm going to assume (I've tested this with a couple games) that Mac's gut / instinctive replies are above the game rand, and he replies to mafia about 30% of the time as town.
Now, if we take this on some of his runs of posting, we can determine that there is about mechanically a 1% chance that Mac, Hally, JJJ, NAA, Nanook, DrWilgy are all town.
I know my alignment, and I have Hally, JJJ as lock town.
I think DrWilgy is firmly within town meta... If you disagree here, this is where I can be wrong.
- by JaggedJimmyJay
- Tue Mar 01, 2022 2:41 pm
- Forum: Previous Heists
- Topic: Highway Heist (MAFIA WIN)
- Replies: 3198
- Views: 53485
Re: Highway Heist (Day 2)
Are you keeping a spreadsheet to track how frequently Mac responds to each player in the game?NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Tue Mar 01, 2022 2:29 pm Also, @JaggedJimmyJay That's why I don't have MR & Dizzy as mafia together.
- by JaggedJimmyJay
- Tue Mar 01, 2022 11:51 am
- Forum: Previous Heists
- Topic: Highway Heist (MAFIA WIN)
- Replies: 3198
- Views: 53485
Re: Highway Heist (Day 2)
Turn off all the lights, eliminate external noise, and create a bathroom sensory deprivation space. The serenity should be disturbed only by a single beautiful ploop.
- by JaggedJimmyJay
- Tue Mar 01, 2022 11:36 am
- Forum: Previous Heists
- Topic: Highway Heist (MAFIA WIN)
- Replies: 3198
- Views: 53485
Re: Highway Heist (Day 2)
c4 and I have both done three analyses and seem in be in general alignment, granting slight variation. He was more conservative with MR/Wilgy and perhaps MR/Dizzy than I, but our conclusions were close enough to satisfy me.
- by JaggedJimmyJay
- Tue Mar 01, 2022 11:35 am
- Forum: Previous Heists
- Topic: Highway Heist (MAFIA WIN)
- Replies: 3198
- Views: 53485
Re: Highway Heist (Day 2)
MR and NAA
From MR
From NAA
Conclusion
I think this interaction looks pretty clear from both sides with respect to mafia-mafia indicators. Either way the agenda I see [if I assume either to be mafia in isolation] suggests mafia/town. If MR is mafia, then he views NAA as a necessary mischop and is trying to generate that reality with subtle or not-subtle suggestions that NAA is not meeting a standard of explanation and/or trying to capitalize on low-hanging fruit (MR himself). If NAA is mafia, then he is minimizing his own ability to gain credit from chopping MR if MR is also mafia -- he is attributing his suspicion largely or entirely to Alison's legacy, meaning the credit would go to Alison. I don't figure these two are mafia teammates.
From MR
Spoiler: show
Master Radishes wrote: ↑Fri Feb 25, 2022 1:56 am Catching up was fun until you all stopped talking about me. I'm going to stop and just assume Mac and NAA are voting me for no reason because it's them. I can see Alison's quoted on this page.
Master Radishes wrote: ↑Fri Feb 25, 2022 2:02 pmNever seen scum NAA either so dunno, but I did read it over earlier and didn't have anything to counter it, just so you know your hard work didn't go to waste.Hally wrote: ↑Fri Feb 25, 2022 2:00 pm nobody has any thoughts on this?
Hally wrote: ↑Fri Feb 25, 2022 1:02 pm- treatment of alison is wolfy - opens saying he wants to sheep her while not yet having a read on her then v reads her for a weak reason that doesn’t really apply to her and makes no effort engage with/understand the suspicion surrounding her i.e. what villagers do when someone they v read is getting wolf read a ton. just don’t see any critical thought or drive to figure things out in his treatment of her and it reads more like he’s just trying to ingratiate himself to her.
- treatment of his nonconsensus suspects is wolfy - keeps throwing you out as a wolf read but does nothing about it. again, not what villagers do when someone they wolf read is getting widely v read. i think at one point he even threw out you/jay/dizzy as his suspects and you’re all being cleared pretty much, meaning from his pov town’s consensus is way off, yet i don’t see any of the concern in his posts that villagers have when they think everything is upside down.
- i find his treatment of me wolfy too but obviously biased there. just don’t feel like he’s been trying to solve me in a good faith way.Hally wrote: ↑Fri Feb 25, 2022 1:06 pm also he and nanook know each other well afaik + nanook has been getting a lot of heat, but NAA has largely ignored him i think
i dunno, just not feeling the villager in the way he’s approaching anything but i’ve never played with him so maybe i’m backwards here
Master Radishes wrote: ↑Fri Feb 25, 2022 2:04 pm I found it easy to misread Axey first time I played with him though. So like your second point of not seeing concern in his posts does feel normal for him imo.
Master Radishes wrote: ↑Sat Feb 26, 2022 2:17 pm Here is my advice on what to do. First, eliminate Alison so that I won't die today.
If Alison flips scum, then eliminate Mac. If Mac is town, then eliminate Dizzy and Wilgy, in that order.
If Alison flips town, then eliminate me. I will flip town, whereupon which you should eliminate NAA and Wilgy.
I have about a 60% confidence that this solve wins the game. This may not seem like a lot of confidence, but it's actually quite a lot if you think about what I am proposing.
Master Radishes wrote: ↑Sat Feb 26, 2022 2:14 pm My wagon has the two most stale votes.
Like I guess Axe moved his briefly to put Alison at 5 or whatever happened, but seeing as he then went back to me that barely counts.
Master Radishes wrote: ↑Sat Feb 26, 2022 2:23 pm Imagine it's Alison/NAA and both wolves have sat on my wagon for the bulk of the Day.
The fun thing about always being LHF is being bait.
Master Radishes wrote: ↑Sat Feb 26, 2022 3:43 pm What if the crowd of Jay, Hally, Dizzy, C4, Marmot, and I all rank Alison, NAA, Mac in preferred order and then find the average score to decide who dies.
(In this plan Wilgy and NAA are NPCs.)
Master Radishes wrote: ↑Sat Feb 26, 2022 3:44 pm*Nook, not NAA, for that last sentence.Master Radishes wrote: ↑Sat Feb 26, 2022 3:43 pm What if the crowd of Jay, Hally, Dizzy, C4, Marmot, and I all rank Alison, NAA, Mac in preferred order and then find the average score to decide who dies.
(In this plan Wilgy and NAA are NPCs.)
Master Radishes wrote: ↑Sat Feb 26, 2022 3:52 pm Alison > NAA > Mac > Nook
Not sure I'm ready for a Wilgy yeet at this stage.
Master Radishes wrote: ↑Mon Feb 28, 2022 2:15 pm So I can have some light reading on my bus ride home, why was NAA's EoD villagery?
I dont even know what to feel about him, I just don't really get why he's now a town read.
Master Radishes wrote: ↑Mon Feb 28, 2022 3:47 pm Why am I and Dizzy in a dichotomy? That was an Alison thing and now it's an NAA thing and I don't know why.
Master Radishes wrote: ↑Mon Feb 28, 2022 4:12 pmBut why is there a difference check?NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Mon Feb 28, 2022 3:50 pmYou're both scummy, and I trust Alison sufficiently to carry her legacy out. This is why I sheeped her from the moment I thought she was town.Master Radishes wrote: ↑Mon Feb 28, 2022 3:47 pm Why am I and Dizzy in a dichotomy? That was an Alison thing and now it's an NAA thing and I don't know why.
Master Radishes wrote: ↑Mon Feb 28, 2022 5:04 pmButNotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Mon Feb 28, 2022 4:45 pmBecause likely only one of you can be mafia... And at least one of you MUST be mafia.Master Radishes wrote: ↑Mon Feb 28, 2022 4:12 pmBut why is there a difference check?NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Mon Feb 28, 2022 3:50 pmYou're both scummy, and I trust Alison sufficiently to carry her legacy out. This is why I sheeped her from the moment I thought she was town.Master Radishes wrote: ↑Mon Feb 28, 2022 3:47 pm Why am I and Dizzy in a dichotomy? That was an Alison thing and now it's an NAA thing and I don't know why.
and hear me out here
why?
Master Radishes wrote: ↑Mon Feb 28, 2022 5:04 pmAlison had a case. A poor one, but a case.NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Mon Feb 28, 2022 4:45 pmYou should have argued with the ghost before she became a ghost.
What's yours?
Master Radishes wrote: ↑Mon Feb 28, 2022 5:27 pm Like I mostly am trying to get a read on NAA in return by understanding him. I don't intend to defend myself point by point or anything.
But like... Jay. Wtf.
From NAA
Spoiler: show
NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Sat Feb 26, 2022 11:59 am So, MasterRadishes is mafia right, when are yall moving onto this wagon?
NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Sat Feb 26, 2022 5:06 pm I would also kill MR. MR or dizzy best chances of hitting mafia
NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Sat Feb 26, 2022 5:13 pmMR see AlisonJaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Sat Feb 26, 2022 5:11 pmI know you're not the explaining type, but it would be valuable to me if you could just expand this by like one more sentence.NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Sat Feb 26, 2022 5:06 pm I would also kill MR. MR or dizzy best chances of hitting mafia
Dizzy see voting history - idgi, it seems like the objective was to always vote Alison and to appear to be doing other things throughout the day.
That is all
NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Mon Feb 28, 2022 3:50 pmYou're both scummy, and I trust Alison sufficiently to carry her legacy out. This is why I sheeped her from the moment I thought she was town.Master Radishes wrote: ↑Mon Feb 28, 2022 3:47 pm Why am I and Dizzy in a dichotomy? That was an Alison thing and now it's an NAA thing and I don't know why.
NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Mon Feb 28, 2022 4:45 pmBecause likely only one of you can be mafia... And at least one of you MUST be mafia.Master Radishes wrote: ↑Mon Feb 28, 2022 4:12 pmBut why is there a difference check?NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Mon Feb 28, 2022 3:50 pmYou're both scummy, and I trust Alison sufficiently to carry her legacy out. This is why I sheeped her from the moment I thought she was town.Master Radishes wrote: ↑Mon Feb 28, 2022 3:47 pm Why am I and Dizzy in a dichotomy? That was an Alison thing and now it's an NAA thing and I don't know why.
NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Mon Feb 28, 2022 4:45 pmYou should have argued with the ghost before she became a ghost.
Conclusion
I think this interaction looks pretty clear from both sides with respect to mafia-mafia indicators. Either way the agenda I see [if I assume either to be mafia in isolation] suggests mafia/town. If MR is mafia, then he views NAA as a necessary mischop and is trying to generate that reality with subtle or not-subtle suggestions that NAA is not meeting a standard of explanation and/or trying to capitalize on low-hanging fruit (MR himself). If NAA is mafia, then he is minimizing his own ability to gain credit from chopping MR if MR is also mafia -- he is attributing his suspicion largely or entirely to Alison's legacy, meaning the credit would go to Alison. I don't figure these two are mafia teammates.
- by JaggedJimmyJay
- Tue Mar 01, 2022 10:45 am
- Forum: Previous Heists
- Topic: Highway Heist (MAFIA WIN)
- Replies: 3198
- Views: 53485
Re: Highway Heist (Day 2)
You'd suggested there's a difference check between Dizzy and MR. How do you feel about them as mafia teammates?NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Tue Mar 01, 2022 10:40 amI've felt like the game is solved for a while now.JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Tue Mar 01, 2022 5:00 am I feel like the game is solved. If anyone wants to claw me back down from the clouds, please do. But just know that right now at 4:00 AM that’s how I feel.![]()
- by JaggedJimmyJay
- Tue Mar 01, 2022 10:39 am
- Forum: Previous Heists
- Topic: Highway Heist (MAFIA WIN)
- Replies: 3198
- Views: 53485
- by JaggedJimmyJay
- Tue Mar 01, 2022 5:00 am
- Forum: Previous Heists
- Topic: Highway Heist (MAFIA WIN)
- Replies: 3198
- Views: 53485
Re: Highway Heist (Day 2)
I feel like the game is solved. If anyone wants to claw me back down from the clouds, please do. But just know that right now at 4:00 AM that’s how I feel.
- by JaggedJimmyJay
- Tue Mar 01, 2022 4:52 am
- Forum: Previous Heists
- Topic: Highway Heist (MAFIA WIN)
- Replies: 3198
- Views: 53485
Re: Highway Heist (Day 2)
Hi you’re mafia
![Big grin :biggrin:](./images/smilies/Big%20Grin.gif)
- by JaggedJimmyJay
- Tue Mar 01, 2022 4:48 am
- Forum: Previous Heists
- Topic: Highway Heist (MAFIA WIN)
- Replies: 3198
- Views: 53485
Re: Highway Heist (Day 2)
My confidence level is has increased from like 30 to 90 in the last hour.
- by JaggedJimmyJay
- Tue Mar 01, 2022 4:47 am
- Forum: Previous Heists
- Topic: Highway Heist (MAFIA WIN)
- Replies: 3198
- Views: 53485
Re: Highway Heist (Day 2)
Let me know if you disagree with c4/Dizzy analysis. In the interest of immediate solving I am just going to say: I think c4 had a PR read on Dizzy at least for a moment, and that's what caused c4's faux-1610 "slip" post. If true, they're not both mafia. I made a few other points in there too.MacDougall wrote: ↑Tue Mar 01, 2022 4:28 am irt to the latter I would add that they in fact were not viewed as such by anyone else aside from specifically c4 who I am now tunneling as dizzy's partner for separate reasons
- by JaggedJimmyJay
- Tue Mar 01, 2022 4:44 am
- Forum: Previous Heists
- Topic: Highway Heist (MAFIA WIN)
- Replies: 3198
- Views: 53485
Re: Highway Heist (Day 2)
Dizzy and MR
From Dizzy
From MR
Conclusion
Yes, these two fit together fine. There might even be some indicative stuff here, primarily in Dizzy's posts. He frequently adds caveats to his MR reads that qualify, soften, or invert them in ways that makes the whole reads progression a cloud of vagueness. Dizzy started with an actual town read, but for the majority of the game MR has floated around in this "I call him town usually but also constantly acknowledge why he might not be town" space for Dizzy. That's perfectly teammate compatible. Indeed, I get an impression that Dizzy has mentioned MR more than once out of a sense of obligation. Then on MR's side, he hardly acknowledged Dizzy at all on Day 1. Close to nothing. Then through this Day 2 I see no effort to resolve the slot. In my chart this would be light orange or maybe worse.
From Dizzy
Spoiler: show
Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Thu Feb 24, 2022 7:20 pm I change my mind. Hally could be town.
With Jimmay, c4 and probably possibly Radish.
Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Thu Feb 24, 2022 9:14 pm Mac is probably town tbh
Add Hally, c4, Marmot and Radish. YES RADISH
Towncoreville wow
Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Fri Feb 25, 2022 11:34 amUh. So you expect scum to openly hammer MR of he’s town? Seems dumb, to be frank. What if one or two are already on him?DrWilgy wrote: ↑Fri Feb 25, 2022 11:17 amBecause it adds perspective.
If MR is town, scum for some reason haven't done it yet. Either not present or afraid of the fall out.
Or he hasn't been hammered because their team is actively avoiding it.
Why is it either or. His wagon is pretty meh in any case. There’s plenty of time left in the day. Nobody expects a sudden hammer.
I don’t get and actually don’t buy that this is something you’re actually thinking about in this manner.
Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Fri Feb 25, 2022 6:28 pmIf MR is red, Mac is probably more likely wolf lol. But MR is town anyways so waheveh
Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Fri Feb 25, 2022 6:55 pm Town:
Marmot
c4
Wilgy
Hally
MR
Everyone else should get townier if they are town.
Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Fri Feb 25, 2022 7:00 pmOrange just reads like such bs.Alison wrote: ↑Fri Feb 25, 2022 12:18 amI don't think he is
I re-read MR though and some stuff pings me (specifically the flat-sounding attempt to sound like an egoistical townie angry that people are assuming they're out of their scum range, and the repetition of "witty opening post" making for a kinda stilted entrance). So I [VOTE: Master Radishes] aubergine.
This is the post in question:
Which is an obvious joke. I don't think town!Alison reads this as a "flat-sounding attempt to sound like an egotistical towny angry that people are assuming they're out of their scum range". Too many words anyway.
Alison was super awkward in the spat with Hally as well. And the "never mind I town read you now" is classic Wolfison.
So I think I'm just going to tunnel here until she be dedded.
Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Sat Feb 26, 2022 6:52 amI'm also unenthused by Mac.Alison wrote: ↑Sat Feb 26, 2022 4:36 am I have just eaten a pot of Samyang noodles. My sinuses are clear and my brain is tired. I have read up.
- Mac's re-entrance into the thread does not spark joy. He appears to be generating chaos for the sake of it when I think he would approach the gamestate in a more orderly fashion if his reads were as he claims they were. Specifically, if he townreads me and sees me in danger of receiving a guillotine to the neck, I believe he would not be doing things like, eg. "voting c4 for science". I'm scratching my head why he (presumably) townreads me over the "rock apes" mindmeld. Surely I'd be frustrated at having a read confidence misrepped as either alignment.
- I still do not want to vote Mac off today. My reasoning remains the same.
- I have seen NAA's argument that JJJ is most likely to be the scum voting me. I definitely think I am being pushed by scum. Radish and Dizzy are more likely than JJJ, though. I tend to think that JJJ is the kind of townie that ramps up the townieness over time. If he is town, he will show that townieness in a brilliant dazzle as time goes on until it is undeniable to everyone and he becomes universally townread. If it is later in the game and he still hasn't ramped up, then maybe scrutinize him then. I have other leads to pursue in the meantime.
- I think Wilgy is town now. Gut read. Believe it or don't.
- Nanook takes Wilgy's place of suspicion in the POE for trying to hammer me. I had Wilgy paired with Axe specifically because Axe seemed willing to sheep my push on anyone but him, but I don't think Nanook and Axe read as strongly paired. They could be partners, it's not out of the question, but it's not an association I think is significantly more likely than Nanook + other person or Axe + other person. I think in this updated solve I'd throw Nanook in as a wild card replacement of one of Radish/Mac if I'm wrong on them. Radish/Mac/Dizzy/Nanook are floating around in some kind of scummy stew. I think there's two mafia in there and the most likely exact pair is Radish/Mac but I wouldn't be shocked to see any of the others in one of the slots. Axe is less scummy than the four of them especially given his hard Alison siding and the fact that the person I partnered him with now reads as town to me. He is 5th in the POE.
Good night.
I also think Wilgy is town.
Problem is, your solve just seems weak and bad to me. I took issue with your reasons for scum reading MR, because they just seem like made up bs, as I said, prescribing tons meaning into a simple joke. You never addressed this, and I would like you to. Your tag-on that I'm scum for "not doing anything" is bad as well. I have certainly done a lot. I have 5 town reads (that might change lol) and I am straight up accusing you for specific reasons. Me "doing anything" is not even a reliable way to read me. However, I'm not one to get up in your face and "open wolf" or whatever you think I would be doing here as wolf. I don't know. Maybe you're omgusing a bit or whatever, but I find your read on both me and MR particularly weak at a level I don't expect from you as town. Even if you are town and MR is mafia, I find your MR read weak.
So that just makes it hard to believe that you have such confidence in this.
Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Sat Feb 26, 2022 6:59 am At the same time, MR is not a particularly strong read of mine either way
Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Sat Feb 26, 2022 7:29 amI should add that my reads aren't really that different to yours tbh.Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Sat Feb 26, 2022 6:58 am @Alison Of you town read Wilgy, I expect you to describe meaning to me trying to town clear them when Hally and Jimmay were voting Wilgy. Other people were able to. Unless you’re just not paying attention. My biggest issue, again, is your solve doesn’t have substance or the substance is weak/bad like in the case of MR
c4/Marmot - shocked if mafia.
Hally - not shocked if mafia at all actually, but I still town read.
Wilgy - town just get with it
Jimmay - I actually just need someone to convince me one way or another, cause it's a mixed bag
Nanook - Shrug
NAA - Shrug
Mac - Playing some sour notes
Alison - Why is your reasoning for your reads on me and MR in particular so extremely bad
MR - Actually should do a lot more things
Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Fri Feb 25, 2022 7:31 pmI'll sheep your Jimmay read if you sheep my Wilgy and Radish reads. You won't regret it. BOX THEM INHally wrote: ↑Fri Feb 25, 2022 7:28 pmc4JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Fri Feb 25, 2022 7:22 pm Name 6 townies not including yourself. Get it right and you win the game. Anyone fancy a try?
marmot
dizzy
you
honestly not sure who else, but maybe radishy because he’s my mason
Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Fri Feb 25, 2022 7:53 pmNo. You are kind of talking like you are, while at the same time not doing it.Alison wrote: ↑Fri Feb 25, 2022 7:52 pmYou guys are talking like I am deathtunnelling Radish.Hally wrote: ↑Fri Feb 25, 2022 7:51 pmsameMaster Radishes wrote: ↑Fri Feb 25, 2022 7:49 pm I am unconvinced that Alison is this convinced about me.
it just reads like she picked a random lhf villager to try to ram through and inflated her confidence in it to hide that there’s no substance to her push
Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Sat Feb 26, 2022 7:49 amWith a face like yours? No, you’re right. Just sit and look pretty
Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Sat Feb 26, 2022 2:35 pmJust a lot of self reflective reacting to [situations] in a way I think would be hard to fake as scum. He just writes from a very towny perspective. Which fits with what I know of his town game, and I don't think he's as good at it as mafia. I'm ready to be fooled, but it's enough for me to just say he's town tbh.Master Radishes wrote: ↑Sat Feb 26, 2022 8:15 am That's an invitation for someone to say 'ah you see MR, C4 is lock town because...'
Maybe this is abstract, but too lazy to find examples. It's basically a constant.
Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Sat Feb 26, 2022 3:28 pm Is it allowed to be annoyed and impatient about the amount and jokes MR makes as well?
I feel I should have some kind of grievance with most everyone
Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Sat Feb 26, 2022 2:59 pmYou're a terrible person thank god you're prettyMaster Radishes wrote: ↑Sat Feb 26, 2022 2:17 pm Here is my advice on what to do. First, eliminate Alison so that I won't die today.
If Alison flips scum, then eliminate Mac. If Mac is town, then eliminate Dizzy and Wilgy, in that order.
If Alison flips town, then eliminate me. I will flip town, whereupon which you should eliminate NAA and Wilgy.
I have about a 60% confidence that this solve wins the game. This may not seem like a lot of confidence, but it's actually quite a lot if you think about what I am proposing.
Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Sun Feb 27, 2022 7:21 pm Gonna vote MR now because Alison is a better being and I don’t want us to seem teamed
Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Sun Feb 27, 2022 7:24 pmTo be fair, he already said bye didn’t he?JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Sun Feb 27, 2022 7:22 pm MR can be mafia. He just sat and watched this happen.
Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Sun Feb 27, 2022 7:27 pm I don’t really believe MR is mafia though, which is a problem. But he has been overdoing the I don’t care I’m joking haha play style, and it’s getting super tired
Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Sun Feb 27, 2022 7:27 pmBut I could say this about myself as well lolDyslexicon wrote: ↑Sun Feb 27, 2022 7:27 pm I don’t really believe MR is mafia though, which is a problem. But he has been overdoing the I don’t care I’m joking haha play style, and it’s getting super tired
Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Mon Feb 28, 2022 7:11 pm MR is quite towny here actually.
I'm a little bit tired of Jimmay saying "Do stuff, solve the game, I can only read you by that", cause I don't really think that's true.
I had half the thought that I've only really seen Jimmay solve patiently with PoE and wanting to hear people out even if he suspects them, so this smack smack bang is a change of pace. This is not really an accusation, but
Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Mon Feb 28, 2022 6:33 pmNaughty, naughty badness.Master Radishes wrote: ↑Mon Feb 28, 2022 6:32 pm Jay, what do you expect when you look for scum Radish?
(I promise not to be offended by anything you say.)![]()
Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Mon Feb 28, 2022 6:38 pmI already did. But you're too wrapped up in your mafia rand to flirt with me >: (Master Radishes wrote: ↑Mon Feb 28, 2022 6:37 pm If anyone else wants to comment on scum Radish feel free.
Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Mon Feb 28, 2022 6:45 pmTMI that you're not wolf counts as TMI.Master Radishes wrote: ↑Mon Feb 28, 2022 6:45 pm Anyway I just mainly like people talking about me.
If you want to know why I'm not a wolf here it's (a) I've not tried harder to (fake) solve and (b) my general comfort level talking directly to people (instead of around/about them) and (c) I've not made a TMI slip (which I do at least once per wolf rand).
Gottem
From MR
Spoiler: show
Master Radishes wrote: ↑Sat Feb 26, 2022 3:43 pm What if the crowd of Jay, Hally, Dizzy, C4, Marmot, and I all rank Alison, NAA, Mac in preferred order and then find the average score to decide who dies.
(In this plan Wilgy and NAA are NPCs.)
Master Radishes wrote: ↑Mon Feb 28, 2022 3:47 pm Why am I and Dizzy in a dichotomy? That was an Alison thing and now it's an NAA thing and I don't know why.
Master Radishes wrote: ↑Fri Feb 25, 2022 7:57 pm Like Dizzy I need to go sleep. My vote is back on Alison in spirit.
Master Radishes wrote: ↑Sat Feb 26, 2022 8:10 am These are nothing more than feelings, but I'd be fine with calling Hally and Marmot town, and probably Jay, Dizzy, and C4 too. I respect all their ranges but the first two have had moments where I sensed genuinity and the latter three it's more of an overall vibe.
I dont have anything specifically bad to say about most of the others, just that I've seen nothing I consider good enough to raise up beyond neutrality.
Master Radishes wrote: ↑Sat Feb 26, 2022 2:48 pmThey're my mason.Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Sat Feb 26, 2022 2:44 pm Why do we actually town read Hally again? I've already forgotten.
Master Radishes wrote: ↑Sat Feb 26, 2022 3:40 pmYes that's allowed.Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Sat Feb 26, 2022 3:28 pm Is it allowed to be annoyed and impatient about the amount and jokes MR makes as well?
I feel I should have some kind of grievance with most everyone
Master Radishes wrote: ↑Mon Feb 28, 2022 1:50 amI'm not overdoing anything. I don't like playing D1s, am busy with work as usual, and am phone posting because my laptop is dead and I'm waiting for a new one. I'm keeping up but will not be taking any sort of lead.Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Sun Feb 27, 2022 7:27 pm I don’t really believe MR is mafia though, which is a problem. But he has been overdoing the I don’t care I’m joking haha play style, and it’s getting super tired
Master Radishes wrote: ↑Mon Feb 28, 2022 6:40 pmI'm busy trying to make Jay realise he doesn't actually know my scum meta and is therefore reading me wrong.Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Mon Feb 28, 2022 6:38 pmI already did. But you're too wrapped up in your mafia rand to flirt with me >: (Master Radishes wrote: ↑Mon Feb 28, 2022 6:37 pm If anyone else wants to comment on scum Radish feel free.
Also with setting up my new laptop so I can play fucking properly finally.
Master Radishes wrote: ↑Mon Feb 28, 2022 6:50 pmDyslexicon wrote: ↑Mon Feb 28, 2022 6:45 pmTMI that you're not wolf counts as TMI.Master Radishes wrote: ↑Mon Feb 28, 2022 6:45 pm Anyway I just mainly like people talking about me.
If you want to know why I'm not a wolf here it's (a) I've not tried harder to (fake) solve and (b) my general comfort level talking directly to people (instead of around/about them) and (c) I've not made a TMI slip (which I do at least once per wolf rand).
Gottem![]()
Conclusion
Yes, these two fit together fine. There might even be some indicative stuff here, primarily in Dizzy's posts. He frequently adds caveats to his MR reads that qualify, soften, or invert them in ways that makes the whole reads progression a cloud of vagueness. Dizzy started with an actual town read, but for the majority of the game MR has floated around in this "I call him town usually but also constantly acknowledge why he might not be town" space for Dizzy. That's perfectly teammate compatible. Indeed, I get an impression that Dizzy has mentioned MR more than once out of a sense of obligation. Then on MR's side, he hardly acknowledged Dizzy at all on Day 1. Close to nothing. Then through this Day 2 I see no effort to resolve the slot. In my chart this would be light orange or maybe worse.
- by JaggedJimmyJay
- Tue Mar 01, 2022 4:25 am
- Forum: Previous Heists
- Topic: Highway Heist (MAFIA WIN)
- Replies: 3198
- Views: 53485
Re: Highway Heist (Day 2)
I'm going to look fully at the Dizzy/MR interaction now to see if it holds up.
- by JaggedJimmyJay
- Tue Mar 01, 2022 4:24 am
- Forum: Previous Heists
- Topic: Highway Heist (MAFIA WIN)
- Replies: 3198
- Views: 53485
Re: Highway Heist (Day 2)
Dizzy posts from the period in which Mac and I were fighting early in Day 2:MacDougall wrote: ↑Tue Mar 01, 2022 4:10 am Imagine I have the energy to quote a bunch of stuff that dizzy said while I was fighting with Hally and Jay and pointed out how wolfy it is. Then agree with it plz.
Spoiler: show
Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Sun Feb 27, 2022 6:44 pmYou wouldn’t buy Alison’s trick as town. You are hesitant in making points that advance town. I just think it’s a decent chance you’re mafia, and I’m not going to get into a discussion about it with you. We can talk about other things.
Hopefully I get to read the game again during this day phase.
Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Sun Feb 27, 2022 6:45 pmI played maybe the biggest part, and I could tell it was a mistake as it was happening hehMacDougall wrote: ↑Sun Feb 27, 2022 6:43 pm Funny you say that Jay because I don't believe that either of you would view the day as having played out the way that it did and think I had anything to do with it, do you really think that Alison goes over day 1 without the mafia playing a significant role in her demise? I don't.
Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Sun Feb 27, 2022 6:48 pmBut it’s true. Don’t really thing Jay is mafia. But what I think isn’t likely to be worth muchMacDougall wrote: ↑Sun Feb 27, 2022 6:46 pmthat isn't helping my point right nowDyslexicon wrote: ↑Sun Feb 27, 2022 6:45 pmI played maybe the biggest part, and I could tell it was a mistake as it was happening hehMacDougall wrote: ↑Sun Feb 27, 2022 6:43 pm Funny you say that Jay because I don't believe that either of you would view the day as having played out the way that it did and think I had anything to do with it, do you really think that Alison goes over day 1 without the mafia playing a significant role in her demise? I don't.
Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Sun Feb 27, 2022 6:49 pmYou were pushed a decent deal for a d1. You’re not making convincing points tbhMacDougall wrote: ↑Sun Feb 27, 2022 6:46 pm Furthermore I will add that nobody outright attacking me (the way Jay and Hally have done right now) d1 is a strong indicator that it's because I was pushing an incorrect POE and wasn't being a threat. Jay and Hally at multiple points exhibited TMI that I was town.
Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Sun Feb 27, 2022 6:50 pmI watched it in real time and was almost positive she was lying. It’s well within her wheelhouse.Hally wrote: ↑Sun Feb 27, 2022 6:49 pmwhy would i ever think alison would troll there? she’s like the least trolly person on the planetDyslexicon wrote: ↑Sun Feb 27, 2022 6:44 pmYou wouldn’t buy Alison’s trick as town. You are hesitant in making points that advance town. I just think it’s a decent chance you’re mafia, and I’m not going to get into a discussion about it with you. We can talk about other things.
Hopefully I get to read the game again during this day phase.
i was actually kinda shocked she made that post when she flipped villager
Oh well. My brain wants to tunnel you so
Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Sun Feb 27, 2022 6:55 pm Mac. You’re open wolfing worse than me, regardless of your alignment. Sads.
Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Sun Feb 27, 2022 6:58 pmI’m voting Hally now.MacDougall wrote: ↑Sun Feb 27, 2022 6:56 pmThese types of comments are why good chops on good players never go through.Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Sun Feb 27, 2022 6:55 pm Mac. You’re open wolfing worse than me, regardless of your alignment. Sads.
You could join.
Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Sun Feb 27, 2022 6:59 pmIt’s kind of hawt tbhJaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Sun Feb 27, 2022 6:58 pmIt's been a long time perhaps, but roasting Mac is an old tradition (and one he is ridiculous to pretend never happens). He and Epignosis are the most common targets for my more... animated aggression.Master Radishes wrote: ↑Sun Feb 27, 2022 6:56 pm I've never, in admittedly more limited than you might expect experience, seen Jay treat someone the way he's treating Mac now. I find it interesting and probably alignment indicative.
Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Sun Feb 27, 2022 7:02 pmDidn’t you just spend the last pages declaring how Jimmay and Hally are teammates.MacDougall wrote: ↑Sun Feb 27, 2022 7:01 pmNah pass, Hally is obvious town from derp clearing herself after Alison fake claimed mafia.Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Sun Feb 27, 2022 6:58 pmI’m voting Hally now.MacDougall wrote: ↑Sun Feb 27, 2022 6:56 pmThese types of comments are why good chops on good players never go through.Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Sun Feb 27, 2022 6:55 pm Mac. You’re open wolfing worse than me, regardless of your alignment. Sads.
You could join.
You can calm down with the open wolfing now lol
Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Sun Feb 27, 2022 7:04 pmWhy does Hally’s posts count as derp clears, while Jimnay’s does not?MacDougall wrote: ↑Sun Feb 27, 2022 7:01 pmNah pass, Hally is obvious town from derp clearing herself after Alison fake claimed mafia.Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Sun Feb 27, 2022 6:58 pmI’m voting Hally now.MacDougall wrote: ↑Sun Feb 27, 2022 6:56 pmThese types of comments are why good chops on good players never go through.Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Sun Feb 27, 2022 6:55 pm Mac. You’re open wolfing worse than me, regardless of your alignment. Sads.
You could join.
Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Sun Feb 27, 2022 7:06 pmSo it’s me and Jay, since you just cleared Hally from derps?MacDougall wrote: ↑Sun Feb 27, 2022 7:04 pm In the triangle of Dyslexicon, Hally and Jay there are always two mafia.
Like… are you derp clearing lock towning Hally, or are you accusing them? Cause that seems the tiniest fraction unclear
Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Sun Feb 27, 2022 7:08 pm What is my reaction and why is it bad? Is this you trying to make me look bad after a red flip or something?
This got bizarre so fast. I bet it’s pretty hilarious in specchat in some way or another.
Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Sun Feb 27, 2022 7:11 pmI never scum read you.JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Sun Feb 27, 2022 7:06 pmWhy am I town now?Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Sun Feb 27, 2022 7:04 pm Why does Hally’s posts count as derp clears, while Jimnay’s does not?
I was asking Mac why he’s clearing Hally for reacting to Alison’s lies, but not you.
Of course, nobody should be cleared off of that, as mafia isn’t going to let it be known that it is a lie.
Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Sun Feb 27, 2022 7:14 pmYour yammering makes zero sense to me. Sorryboutit.MacDougall wrote: ↑Sun Feb 27, 2022 7:11 pmNo you are sidelining hot takes that feel like cheerleading Jay in a really scummy way and even Jay noticed it.Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Sun Feb 27, 2022 7:08 pm What is my reaction and why is it bad? Is this you trying to make me look bad after a red flip or something?
This got bizarre so fast. I bet it’s pretty hilarious in specchat in some way or another.
You’re accusing Hally and clearing Hally on breathing in and out.
Or I just don’t get it.
And I believe that if there’s scum between j/hally, it’s likelier to be hally.
Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Sun Feb 27, 2022 7:15 pm But I am very much amused, yes.
Can’t tell if this is a disaster or will be productive at some point.
Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Sun Feb 27, 2022 7:17 pm Wild as it seems, Mac still could be town.
Oh wow, how amazing and interesting!
I will return later. Game game game
Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Sun Feb 27, 2022 7:18 pm Obligatory
What if Mac/Jay are both town and the real scums are like Hally and/or Nook or something?
A few things that might be indicative of mafia Dizzy from this pile:
1) Suggesting Hally is suspicious for "buying Alison's trick" -- no reason I see why town Hally can't do that, and it also suggests to me that Dizzy knew too much about Alison's motivations as it had been happening (by way of knowing her alignment).
2) Town reading me while I was screaming at Mac in a way that I haven't done in a long time, causing numerous people including Dizzy himself to remark that I was out of character.
3) Suggesting Mac was openwolfing for making his arguments against Hally and I, points that I don't think should have necessarily been viewed as patently wrong by people other than Hally and I.
- by JaggedJimmyJay
- Tue Mar 01, 2022 4:19 am
- Forum: Previous Heists
- Topic: Highway Heist (MAFIA WIN)
- Replies: 3198
- Views: 53485
Re: Highway Heist (Day 2)
I will quote all the posts Mac mentioned a moment ago, but I want to highlight this one especially.Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Sun Feb 27, 2022 7:18 pm Obligatory
What if Mac/Jay are both town and the real scums are like Hally and/or Nook or something?
After Mac and I rip each other's heads off and Dizzy eventually settles into the town/town read, the first suspect to emerge as an alternative is... Hally? What?
- by JaggedJimmyJay
- Tue Mar 01, 2022 4:14 am
- Forum: Previous Heists
- Topic: Highway Heist (MAFIA WIN)
- Replies: 3198
- Views: 53485
Re: Highway Heist (Day 2)
I can't sleep so I will quote them for you.MacDougall wrote: ↑Tue Mar 01, 2022 4:10 am Imagine I have the energy to quote a bunch of stuff that dizzy said while I was fighting with Hally and Jay and pointed out how wolfy it is. Then agree with it plz.
- by JaggedJimmyJay
- Tue Mar 01, 2022 4:10 am
- Forum: Previous Heists
- Topic: Highway Heist (MAFIA WIN)
- Replies: 3198
- Views: 53485
Re: Highway Heist (Day 2)
It’s a rough post. Textbook TMI
- by JaggedJimmyJay
- Tue Mar 01, 2022 3:09 am
- Forum: Previous Heists
- Topic: Highway Heist (MAFIA WIN)
- Replies: 3198
- Views: 53485
Re: Highway Heist (Day 2)
@MacDougall, MR/Dizzy would very much affirm your original thought that the Alison chop was mafia-driven.
- by JaggedJimmyJay
- Tue Mar 01, 2022 3:07 am
- Forum: Previous Heists
- Topic: Highway Heist (MAFIA WIN)
- Replies: 3198
- Views: 53485
Re: Highway Heist (Day 2)
I don't fault you for the impression, or for considering the world. Truth be told though, the fight between Mac and I wasn't a new experience. He and I have done that about 30 times over the years. He and Epignosis are the only two players I can say earn that rage consistently (no offense intended to either). It's a spirited exchange between people who [think they] know each other very well after years of play that can only happen when they don't read each other perfectly (e.g. Sloonei and I).Hally wrote: ↑Tue Mar 01, 2022 3:04 am i really must be tired because i’m tinfoiling a jay/mac world lol. i actually think it fits with their interactions well, specifically
- jay was kinda oddly defensive of mac D1 imo when i don’t think mac’s play really warranted it
- they had that big fight SoD2 that i can see as wolf theater. on jay’s side, it’s already been noted that he seemed uncharacteristically combative towards mac, and i think mac would absolutely go for that kind of theater here. it seems very much in his wheelhouse to have a big fight to look unaligned.
- since that fight nothing has really happened between them? mac has continued to take pot shots at jay here and there but not really pursued his suspicions while jay has gone back to town reading him, and mac is now town reading jay back
- i also think this team would kinda explain why the game has felt so frustrating
it’s entirely possible i’ll think this is dumb when i wake up and i doubt i’ll ever be able to pull the trigger on it but i’m throwing it out there for the #postgamecred
- by JaggedJimmyJay
- Tue Mar 01, 2022 3:04 am
- Forum: Previous Heists
- Topic: Highway Heist (MAFIA WIN)
- Replies: 3198
- Views: 53485
Re: Highway Heist (Day 2)
![Image](https://i.postimg.cc/P5SmrLvK/highway-d2.png)
c4 did the MR ones, so that's indicated on the chart. I am going to want to review these myself to verify my own feelings, because MR is a critical slot and c4 is himself enough of a suspect to demand a second look.
One immediate frustration here is that, while a number of teams seem to work, there isn't a ton of overlap regarding who fits where. There's a lot of [A and B] OR [C and D] without many overlapping [A and C] type options to narrow the pool. I also don't think I can eliminate anyone from the pool entirely here. c4's review is probably the best overall, because he only has two fits (and one of them I am dropping now for reasons). Still, c4/NAA should be taken seriously enough that I don't exonerate c4 entirely.
However, when I stare at this, there is one option that stands out to me. It isn't about the color, but it's about my POE, the fits that work, the progression of this game so far, and how fucking wacko the experience has felt to me ----> Master Radishes / Dyslexicon. The Alison team. The NAA team. I will dig into this and MR's other interactions tomorrow morning to see if that holds up, but at the moment that's my first guess.
- by JaggedJimmyJay
- Tue Mar 01, 2022 2:59 am
- Forum: Previous Heists
- Topic: Highway Heist (MAFIA WIN)
- Replies: 3198
- Views: 53485
Re: Highway Heist (Day 2)
Nanook and NAA
From Nanook
From NAA
I think this one defaults to yellow just because it's pretty blank both ways. It's effortfully blank on Nanook's side, and NAA's view of Nanook seems to only twinge negative on occasion or rely upon associations. I don't feel alarmed by any of this, but I won't discount it outright.
From Nanook
Spoiler: show
NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Thu Feb 24, 2022 9:30 pm Axe is gonna be the Mario that saves me, I can feel it
NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Thu Feb 24, 2022 9:32 pmMy entrance was actually super townie but only axe and mac are gonna recognize it lol
NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Sat Feb 26, 2022 5:18 pmWell I think she's been pushing mostly town soNotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Sat Feb 26, 2022 5:10 pm I would also potentially kill Nanook here, I don't believe he has a serious scum read on Alison.
NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Sat Feb 26, 2022 5:21 pmI think dizzy at least is likely town, and her other pushes that I've seen are some combo of me/mac/wilgy, so like...I think at most one mafia in those four and radishesNotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Sat Feb 26, 2022 5:20 pmThis is a valid reason to scum read, but I disagree with MR/dizzy being T/TNANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Sat Feb 26, 2022 5:18 pmWell I think she's been pushing mostly town soNotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Sat Feb 26, 2022 5:10 pm I would also potentially kill Nanook here, I don't believe he has a serious scum read on Alison.
NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Sun Feb 27, 2022 6:23 pm Anyways there's probably one in jay/mac/axe but not both, and one somewhere else
NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Sun Feb 27, 2022 8:17 pm I know axe well but I have never claimed a god read on him
NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Sun Feb 27, 2022 8:20 pmNull, he's basically rand to meJaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Sun Feb 27, 2022 8:19 pmI don’t need a god read. I need any read.NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Sun Feb 27, 2022 8:17 pm I know axe well but I have never claimed a god read on him
NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Sun Feb 27, 2022 8:55 pmPretty much yeahNotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Sun Feb 27, 2022 8:22 pm I think Nanook can only read me when I town tell very hard.
Occasionally off associative stuff with partners
NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Sun Feb 27, 2022 9:00 pmId say I don't believe youJaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Sun Feb 27, 2022 8:59 pmWhat if I were to tell you that NAA has town told very hard in this very game?NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Sun Feb 27, 2022 8:55 pmPretty much yeahNotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Sun Feb 27, 2022 8:22 pm I think Nanook can only read me when I town tell very hard.
Occasionally off associative stuff with partners
NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Mon Feb 28, 2022 12:34 amHallyJaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Mon Feb 28, 2022 12:26 am @NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME any town reads apart from Wilgy and Mac?
mac is a conditional town read, I think there's one between you him and axe but not more than one
NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Mon Feb 28, 2022 12:40 amBelieve is a strong wordJaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Mon Feb 28, 2022 12:37 amSo would it be accurate for me to say that you currently believe the mafia team to be c4 + Mac/NAA/Jay?NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Mon Feb 28, 2022 12:36 amOne mafiaJaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Mon Feb 28, 2022 12:34 amOne town between us or one mafia?NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Mon Feb 28, 2022 12:34 am mac is a conditional town read, I think there's one between you him and axe but not more than one
I believe it has the highest probability at this point in time, sure
NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Mon Feb 28, 2022 7:48 pmYeah probablyJaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Mon Feb 28, 2022 7:31 pm @NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME, NAA has made 99 posts. Must be something readable in there, eh?
NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Mon Feb 28, 2022 7:49 pmIdk, I dont have to evaluate myself lol. I think I'm broadly in my town meta but idk that there's one specific thing that clears me. Maybe my entrance wrt mac and Jay or not forcing a read on axe, but![]()
NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Mon Feb 28, 2022 8:16 pmYeah I think soJaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Mon Feb 28, 2022 8:11 pm @NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME would you say it is typical for NAA to suspect you when you are town and/or when you feel that you are playing within your town meta?
Although he should actually have me town here if he looks at my entrance, but
It's not really outing for him to incorrectly push me afaik
NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Mon Feb 28, 2022 8:36 pm Fuck's sake
Kill c4, find the mafia in jay/axe/dizzy/mac, gg
[VOTE: nanook] aubergine
From NAA
Spoiler: show
NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Thu Feb 24, 2022 11:45 pmI might be convinced of this narrative. I don't necessarily think Nanook would be the partner though. I also more or less Alison to vote me at EoD based on how things have gone so far.
NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Sat Feb 26, 2022 5:10 pm I would also potentially kill Nanook here, I don't believe he has a serious scum read on Alison.
NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Sat Feb 26, 2022 5:20 pmThis is a valid reason to scum read, but I disagree with MR/dizzy being T/TNANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Sat Feb 26, 2022 5:18 pmWell I think she's been pushing mostly town soNotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Sat Feb 26, 2022 5:10 pm I would also potentially kill Nanook here, I don't believe he has a serious scum read on Alison.
NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Sun Feb 27, 2022 6:04 pm For me, kill order is MR, Dizzy, Nanook.
If scum is outside of that... Well, mistakes were made.
NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Sun Feb 27, 2022 8:22 pm I think Nanook can only read me when I town tell very hard.
NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Mon Feb 28, 2022 3:35 pm Kill MR, Dizzy, Nanook... The order doesn't matter. Killing Alison D1 was a travesty.
NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Mon Feb 28, 2022 3:42 pm I think this game is actually really easy.
There's a hard difference check between Nanook and Mac.
There is a difference check between Dizzy and MR.
If Mac is mafia, it's probably with Dizzy.
I think this one defaults to yellow just because it's pretty blank both ways. It's effortfully blank on Nanook's side, and NAA's view of Nanook seems to only twinge negative on occasion or rely upon associations. I don't feel alarmed by any of this, but I won't discount it outright.
- by JaggedJimmyJay
- Tue Mar 01, 2022 2:57 am
- Forum: Previous Heists
- Topic: Highway Heist (MAFIA WIN)
- Replies: 3198
- Views: 53485
Re: Highway Heist (Day 2)
As I slowly complete this project, I think end up believing NAA is town. As always in this game the confidence isn't where I'd like it to be, but there are little nuggets I keep seeing as I search and scroll that give me this impression.MacDougall wrote: ↑Tue Mar 01, 2022 2:54 am by way of explanation, I found myself solving sync with axe mostly because the rest of the game early on day 2 wanted to kill me
- by JaggedJimmyJay
- Tue Mar 01, 2022 2:47 am
- Forum: Previous Heists
- Topic: Highway Heist (MAFIA WIN)
- Replies: 3198
- Views: 53485
Re: Highway Heist (Day 2)
Mac and NAA
From Mac
From NAA
Conclusion
This one's a bit difficult to describe, but the vibe is light green for me. I don't think it's necessarily telling that Mac gave NAA the initial town read or expanded on it so (that's well within his teammate range). What means more is how that read has developed in the most recent history. I don't think mafia Mac has to be anti-NAA right now and probably wouldn't be given the opportunities I have given and perhaps a few others to just let him slide through Day 2. It would be unexpected at least.
From Mac
Spoiler: show
MacDougall wrote: ↑Thu Feb 24, 2022 7:45 pmWhat technicality soz?NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Thu Feb 24, 2022 7:43 pmA minor technicality.
I thought their reaction to it was bad too.
MacDougall wrote: ↑Thu Feb 24, 2022 9:29 pmhe said something good lemme find itJaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Thu Feb 24, 2022 9:28 pm I don't have a good reason to call NAA town. I kind of "feel" it, I think tangentially just by way of seeing Mac town read him and sensing that it's grounded. He's an alternate for the POE perhaps.
MacDougall wrote: ↑Thu Feb 24, 2022 9:46 pmthis read is pretty townieNotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Thu Feb 24, 2022 7:49 pmProbably not, I think you're mafia proxy Alison and I don't understand the point of this read on C4 / it almost seems like TMI for the sake of pocketing.
MacDougall wrote: ↑Sat Feb 26, 2022 12:22 ammy read on him is being completely overstated and dwelled upon far too much, it was an early game read on a person with 9 posts dude.JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Fri Feb 25, 2022 7:08 pm I vaguely understand Dizzy's read on Wilgy. I am not sure I agree with it, but I get it.
I don't understand Mac's read on NAA.
MacDougall wrote: ↑Sat Feb 26, 2022 12:35 amthis post is townie because if axe is mafia and alison is town he's placing himself in a bad situation and if they are mafia together he's openly siding with alison which is just weirdNotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Thu Feb 24, 2022 7:37 pm#shouldhavestayedinretirementJaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Thu Feb 24, 2022 7:34 pmI decided to rainbow them so people know what the hell I am talking aboutJaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Thu Feb 24, 2022 7:27 pm The following are reads. The categories are reads. The categories aren't ordered so it's not like a rainbow list, k
Having a good time on the highway into town
c4
Dizzy
MR
Town reads
Having a good time, but maybe driving the wrong way
Nanook
Mac
Dunno but gun to my head, town
Driving cautiously, both blinkers activated
Alison
Hally
Dunno kinda iffy
Stopped in the right lane at a red light preventing people from turning right behind him
NAA
"suspicious" I guess
Haven't hit the road yet
DrWilgy
Marmot
Eagerly awaiting
I'm good with sheeping Alison and see where it goes.
this post is townie because he has made no effort to product a townie post on requestNotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Thu Feb 24, 2022 7:43 pmA minor technicality.
I thought their reaction to it was bad too.
see above explanationNotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Thu Feb 24, 2022 7:46 pmA lack of understanding + I haven't actually seriously evaluated.JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Thu Feb 24, 2022 7:45 pmwhy do your reads strike me as fake?NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Thu Feb 24, 2022 7:43 pmA minor technicality.
I thought their reaction to it was bad too.
Combination.
tl;dr he feels like he's just being straightforward in a game in which he's not really motivated to push very hard the end
MacDougall wrote: ↑Sat Feb 26, 2022 12:51 ammultiple people have been like "weird read on axe" over and over and this is not exactly a game with a lot of content so as it pertains to things relevant to me it's quite prominent
MacDougall wrote: ↑Sat Feb 26, 2022 12:52 amcare to guess whomst? there are only 4 names there.NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Sat Feb 26, 2022 12:50 amI'm an ape, and I resent this negative connotation to the term.MacDougall wrote: ↑Sat Feb 26, 2022 12:48 amthis is also supremely relateable because it's exactly how you rock apes are treating my read on axe and it's what overbearing towncores do
Also, I think there's at least 1 mafia on Alison. relatively high confidence.
MacDougall wrote: ↑Sat Feb 26, 2022 12:55 amI suppose you could be right about Jay. He probably hasn't been as towny as he'd need to be to be as townread as he has been at least.NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Sat Feb 26, 2022 12:53 amTop Guess: JJJMacDougall wrote: ↑Sat Feb 26, 2022 12:52 amcare to guess whomst? there are only 4 names there.NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Sat Feb 26, 2022 12:50 amI'm an ape, and I resent this negative connotation to the term.MacDougall wrote: ↑Sat Feb 26, 2022 12:48 amthis is also supremely relateable because it's exactly how you rock apes are treating my read on axe and it's what overbearing towncores do
Also, I think there's at least 1 mafia on Alison. relatively high confidence.
2nd Guess: Dizzy
Somehow I think the other two are more likely to vote Alison D1 as town. And I think JJJ's been scummy in general.
MacDougall wrote: ↑Sat Feb 26, 2022 12:56 amand so is your faceJaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Sat Feb 26, 2022 12:55 am Mac, you don't have to have a thorough, developed explanation for your NAA read. I simply don't get it. That doesn't mean you're wrong or that you're mafia. I see the post below, interpret some measure of confidence from it (by way of the "entire iso" being referenced), and I don't really follow it. If you've nothing to expand on about it then you've nothing to expand on about it.![]()
MacDougall wrote: ↑Sun Feb 27, 2022 6:56 pm I am glad we're in a game with the likes of Wilgy, MR, NAA and Nook cuz I'm confident they're at least all allergic to your bs.
MacDougall wrote: ↑Sun Feb 27, 2022 7:10 pmWell no I just have zero recollection of him ever doing that and I am pretty confident that he doesn't believe that day 1 interactions are very valid.
Going back to the original point. Try to read this post with a clear head.
Jay said that he had you, Alison and NAA in his day 1 POE, of players that have made posts. He said you can't be with the other two so he ruled you out. Implying that anti-associations with those players are enough to rule you out. But then he added back in two players that were low posting in Wilgy and Marmot to his POE and didn't add you back in. Read this carefully. If those two can be POE, why can't you be POE? It doesn't make sense. His read on you has agenda.
MacDougall wrote: ↑Sun Feb 27, 2022 7:29 pmCan be anyone really can't it.
That said. I have some problems with the day 1 gamestate that have caused me to become confirmation biased into this world and your reactions to me voicing it being as aggressive as they were forced me to go back and dig up arguments I didn't really have specifically planned out prior to voicing the read.
My main issue stems from the idea that Alison can go over without a wolf or wolves having good thread control. Alison going over, to me, rules out teams of two inside of MR/Wilgy/NAA/Nanook. It can be that any of them can go with Jay, or yourself but worlds of two containing them should not be able to create a gamestate so malignant that Alison dies d1 (who it's important to note, I was townreading so I don't feel like she was a reasonable chop to make for strong town without being persuaded or at least influenced/humoured by an equally strong wolf). This, coupled with the fact that I was shunted down into the role of town (yes town) moron of the day, again heavily implies the existence of one or two highly influential mafia.
Can a mafia team of two say something like MR/Wilgy just coast while the town captains just work themselves into killing a townie looking Alison, even while MacDougall, who is probably the best Alison read here, is saying she is town? Of course all things is possible in the eyes of the lord. But as I find myself explaining a lot, mafia is a game of probability analysis and I find it more plausible that this would not be the case and that in fact the gamestate was being influenced to be malignant in a more direct manner.
My analysis indicates that one of you are near sure to be mafia now with Marmot and Alison both dead and town.
It is either that, or you guys are playing really badly. Like no offense, but that's the situation. Because I am town. I'll readily admit I'm also playing pretty badly though so you're not alone. But if you guys are town together then yeah you guys are having proper clangers.
MacDougall wrote: ↑Sun Feb 27, 2022 7:51 pm So the only person in both their POE is me, and I am town... Alison had four names above NAA and Marmot had NAA in there. I shielded NAA a lot on day 1. So the mafia are clearly me and NAA. Except I am town.
MacDougall wrote: ↑Sun Feb 27, 2022 8:53 pmWere you just joking here?NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Sat Feb 26, 2022 4:41 pmKill JJJJaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Sat Feb 26, 2022 4:29 pm Alright, gang:
Alison flips town. What next?
Alison flips mafia. What next?
Kill Mac
MacDougall wrote: ↑Mon Feb 28, 2022 5:26 pmcan dizzy be mafia with not me cuz that guy is scummy as fekNotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Mon Feb 28, 2022 3:42 pm I think this game is actually really easy.
There's a hard difference check between Nanook and Mac.
There is a difference check between Dizzy and MR.
If Mac is mafia, it's probably with Dizzy.
From NAA
Spoiler: show
NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Thu Feb 24, 2022 7:43 pmA minor technicality.
I thought their reaction to it was bad too.
NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Sat Feb 26, 2022 12:50 amI'm an ape, and I resent this negative connotation to the term.MacDougall wrote: ↑Sat Feb 26, 2022 12:48 amthis is also supremely relateable because it's exactly how you rock apes are treating my read on axe and it's what overbearing towncores do
Also, I think there's at least 1 mafia on Alison. relatively high confidence.
NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Sat Feb 26, 2022 12:52 amC4 was my top mafia read early on... I think I would actually need to check this read in order to seriously hold onto it though.
NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Sat Feb 26, 2022 12:53 amTop Guess: JJJMacDougall wrote: ↑Sat Feb 26, 2022 12:52 amcare to guess whomst? there are only 4 names there.NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Sat Feb 26, 2022 12:50 amI'm an ape, and I resent this negative connotation to the term.MacDougall wrote: ↑Sat Feb 26, 2022 12:48 amthis is also supremely relateable because it's exactly how you rock apes are treating my read on axe and it's what overbearing towncores do
Also, I think there's at least 1 mafia on Alison. relatively high confidence.
2nd Guess: Dizzy
Somehow I think the other two are more likely to vote Alison D1 as town. And I think JJJ's been scummy in general.
NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Sat Feb 26, 2022 12:59 amJay gave a list early on that was so outrageous to me (me, Alison, Hally as top scum reads), certainly after Hally more or less left wolf range (I think - Limited/No personal experience dealing with them).MacDougall wrote: ↑Sat Feb 26, 2022 12:55 amI suppose you could be right about Jay. He probably hasn't been as towny as he'd need to be to be as townread as he has been at least.NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Sat Feb 26, 2022 12:53 amTop Guess: JJJMacDougall wrote: ↑Sat Feb 26, 2022 12:52 amcare to guess whomst? there are only 4 names there.NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Sat Feb 26, 2022 12:50 amI'm an ape, and I resent this negative connotation to the term.MacDougall wrote: ↑Sat Feb 26, 2022 12:48 amthis is also supremely relateable because it's exactly how you rock apes are treating my read on axe and it's what overbearing towncores do
Also, I think there's at least 1 mafia on Alison. relatively high confidence.
2nd Guess: Dizzy
Somehow I think the other two are more likely to vote Alison D1 as town. And I think JJJ's been scummy in general.
I think Alison has done some towny things... And is over scrutinized compared to her regular game.
I'm town...
So I'm wondering what compelled JJJ to release such a terrible reads list, I assume it's just that he's mafia. I think JJJ voting Alison makes it incredibly likely one of them is wolf, and JJJ has been wolfy.
NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Sat Feb 26, 2022 4:41 pmKill JJJJaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Sat Feb 26, 2022 4:29 pm Alright, gang:
Alison flips town. What next?
Alison flips mafia. What next?
Kill Mac
NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Mon Feb 28, 2022 3:42 pm I think this game is actually really easy.
There's a hard difference check between Nanook and Mac.
There is a difference check between Dizzy and MR.
If Mac is mafia, it's probably with Dizzy.
NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Mon Feb 28, 2022 9:10 pmMac... No, Dizzy... Err... One of those things.JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Mon Feb 28, 2022 8:09 pm To anyone who cares to answer:
Who's the most likely player to flip mafia that is not contained in the following set: [Nanook, MR, Wilgy]?
Conclusion
This one's a bit difficult to describe, but the vibe is light green for me. I don't think it's necessarily telling that Mac gave NAA the initial town read or expanded on it so (that's well within his teammate range). What means more is how that read has developed in the most recent history. I don't think mafia Mac has to be anti-NAA right now and probably wouldn't be given the opportunities I have given and perhaps a few others to just let him slide through Day 2. It would be unexpected at least.
- by JaggedJimmyJay
- Tue Mar 01, 2022 2:32 am
- Forum: Previous Heists
- Topic: Highway Heist (MAFIA WIN)
- Replies: 3198
- Views: 53485
Re: Highway Heist (Day 2)
Folks.
We have the right to be suspicious of each other.
We have the right to be suspicious of each other.
- by JaggedJimmyJay
- Tue Mar 01, 2022 2:32 am
- Forum: Previous Heists
- Topic: Highway Heist (MAFIA WIN)
- Replies: 3198
- Views: 53485
Re: Highway Heist (Day 2)
Mac and Nanook
From Mac
From Nanook
Conclusion
I highlighted an early exchange on the Mac side that I think looks decent for dissociation. If they made that sequence up on the spot it'd be a pretty creative opener for them. Mac looks like he is actually explaining his headspace rather than blandly answering questions that his teammate robotically puts into the thread by default. Just in a general macro sense, this interaction doesn't feel to me like past iterations of town/town Mac/Nanook have felt, where they've kind of understood each other on some implicit level and vibed around the game. This time is awkward, disjointed, and in disagreement. That suggests a disconnect to me. Mac has also more or less kept Nanook in association with Wilgy, either as a literal proposed teammate or as a co-suspect derived from similar reasoning. I can vaguely see potential agendas if I squeeze, so I will be conservative and call it light green. Generally don't think they're teammates.
From Mac
Spoiler: show
MacDougall wrote: ↑Thu Feb 24, 2022 7:10 pmI haven't even seen my role PM yet but I'm assuming you're my partner.NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Thu Feb 24, 2022 6:40 pm Nanook town hally town Jay and mac getting rolled
MacDougall wrote: ↑Thu Feb 24, 2022 7:11 pmhaha mind meldMaster Radishes wrote: ↑Thu Feb 24, 2022 6:43 pmNANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Thu Feb 24, 2022 6:22 pm Jay and mac already outed, mafia in shamblesNanook spewing Mac as his partner.NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Thu Feb 24, 2022 6:40 pm Nanook town hally town Jay and mac getting rolled
MacDougall wrote: ↑Thu Feb 24, 2022 8:52 pmIf I scumread Nanook I don't have any feelings of second guessing or doubt that I do if I scumread anyone else because Nanook has done nothing but post wolfy shit
MacDougall wrote: ↑Thu Feb 24, 2022 8:52 pmnot yet I've got to fart some more to tank my town meta
MacDougall wrote: ↑Thu Feb 24, 2022 8:55 pmif you read again you will see I'm not actually scumreading youNANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Thu Feb 24, 2022 8:54 pmScumreading me is already doing that lolMacDougall wrote: ↑Thu Feb 24, 2022 8:52 pmnot yet I've got to fart some more to tank my town meta
MacDougall wrote: ↑Thu Feb 24, 2022 8:58 pmalso not what is happeningNANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Thu Feb 24, 2022 8:56 pmPretending to scumread me will also do thatMacDougall wrote: ↑Thu Feb 24, 2022 8:55 pmif you read again you will see I'm not actually scumreading youNANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Thu Feb 24, 2022 8:54 pmScumreading me is already doing that lolMacDougall wrote: ↑Thu Feb 24, 2022 8:52 pmnot yet I've got to fart some more to tank my town meta
MacDougall wrote: ↑Thu Feb 24, 2022 9:00 pmI was implying you would be the easiest push to be making because you had been the scummiest slot yet nobody was which is a fact I felt would benefit the town to consider.
MacDougall wrote: ↑Thu Feb 24, 2022 9:01 pmLol this is interesting cuz I feel like an outed wolf and everything I try to reply here feels like what I'd say as a wolf but I'm not a wolf. Not often I feel something different like this.NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Thu Feb 24, 2022 8:59 pm Sorry you're outed dude rand god sucks sometimes
MacDougall wrote: ↑Thu Feb 24, 2022 9:10 pmI can explain.Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Thu Feb 24, 2022 9:06 pm Game felt so much scummier when Mac arrived, and not just Mac lol. Wtf is that all about
I arrived to the game with Nanook and Jay already voting me. I hadn't got into the hub yet so I legit figured I was mafia with Nanook and said as much cuz funny wifom. Then I saw my actual rolecard and then I decided to play wolfy on purpose to reaction test people and Hally failed it.
MacDougall wrote: ↑Thu Feb 24, 2022 9:16 pmyou dizzy MarmotJaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Thu Feb 24, 2022 9:14 pm I would love to hear everyone's town reads. It would be peachy keen. The more the better.![]()
axe c4
nanook hally Alison
wilgy
MacDougall wrote: ↑Thu Feb 24, 2022 9:23 pmyeh all this is pretty much things I thinkJaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Thu Feb 24, 2022 9:22 pm Nanook is off to perhaps the worst start I have ever seen from him (with respect to alignment, not "quality").
Wilgy is a suspect by default.
Hally and Alison are a weird binary-exclusive case that could stand in for either of the names above.
MacDougall wrote: ↑Thu Feb 24, 2022 9:26 pm nook is either exactly the beloved princess or mafia with no in between lol
MacDougall wrote: ↑Thu Feb 24, 2022 9:27 pmhis entrance is whatever but he's not as townie as anyone else lol
MacDougall wrote: ↑Thu Feb 24, 2022 9:28 pmguys I think he's saying he's neitherNANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Thu Feb 24, 2022 9:27 pmWink winkMacDougall wrote: ↑Thu Feb 24, 2022 9:26 pm nook is either exactly the beloved princess or mafia with no in between lol
MacDougall wrote: ↑Thu Feb 24, 2022 9:28 pmhow can this be true when @Dyslexicon is the beloved princess?
MacDougall wrote: ↑Thu Feb 24, 2022 9:32 pmbe careful... fake claiming like this is entirely within both of their town rangesJaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Thu Feb 24, 2022 9:31 pm I'm treating Nanook and Alison as claim and counterclaim.
MacDougall wrote: ↑Sun Feb 27, 2022 6:56 pm I am glad we're in a game with the likes of Wilgy, MR, NAA and Nook cuz I'm confident they're at least all allergic to your bs.
MacDougall wrote: ↑Sun Feb 27, 2022 7:06 pmWhatever my point stands that he'd never outright remove Hally from the equation the way that he did without agenda. And tbh his reaction today has been far worse than any reason I had prior (Hally's and Dyslexicon's just as bad).NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Sun Feb 27, 2022 7:05 pmFwiw I've seen him do the chart things during d1 pre flipMacDougall wrote: ↑Sun Feb 27, 2022 7:03 pmThat is not you're bread and butter you are openly lying. You as a rule completely abstain from doing association reads until a red flip. You are so full of shit lol.JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Sun Feb 27, 2022 7:02 pmYou are describing my bread and butter and saying "I don't do that". Wild.MacDougall wrote: ↑Sun Feb 27, 2022 6:59 pm Firstly, it's two posts Jay. And it demonstrates that you are reading Hally with an agenda. Whether it's to simply pocket her or whether it's because you're teammates, either way you're mafia because of it. A Jay who has Hally in their actual POE of three never rules her out of the POE out of hand because of perceived disassociation reads. You are not that guy. And also one of the other two is now a dead town so her being disassociated to Alison is actually now completely irrelevant.
Those two posts are separated by plenty of game thread. If you want to investigate my dealings with hally in good faith, you're going to have to open the ISO and actually look for the posts. You're omitting an absolute shitload, and you definitely know that already. Just incredible bullshit.
MacDougall wrote: ↑Sun Feb 27, 2022 7:16 pmYou also exaggerate what is happening for some reason. MR and Nanook have had no issues following my train of thought at all. Also you are acting like me changing up me reads and behaving in a weathervaney way is unexpected.Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Sun Feb 27, 2022 7:14 pmYour yammering makes zero sense to me. Sorryboutit.MacDougall wrote: ↑Sun Feb 27, 2022 7:11 pmNo you are sidelining hot takes that feel like cheerleading Jay in a really scummy way and even Jay noticed it.Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Sun Feb 27, 2022 7:08 pm What is my reaction and why is it bad? Is this you trying to make me look bad after a red flip or something?
This got bizarre so fast. I bet it’s pretty hilarious in specchat in some way or another.
You’re accusing Hally and clearing Hally on breathing in and out.
Or I just don’t get it.
And I believe that if there’s scum between j/hally, it’s likelier to be hally.
MacDougall wrote: ↑Sun Feb 27, 2022 7:29 pmCan be anyone really can't it.
That said. I have some problems with the day 1 gamestate that have caused me to become confirmation biased into this world and your reactions to me voicing it being as aggressive as they were forced me to go back and dig up arguments I didn't really have specifically planned out prior to voicing the read.
My main issue stems from the idea that Alison can go over without a wolf or wolves having good thread control. Alison going over, to me, rules out teams of two inside of MR/Wilgy/NAA/Nanook. It can be that any of them can go with Jay, or yourself but worlds of two containing them should not be able to create a gamestate so malignant that Alison dies d1 (who it's important to note, I was townreading so I don't feel like she was a reasonable chop to make for strong town without being persuaded or at least influenced/humoured by an equally strong wolf). This, coupled with the fact that I was shunted down into the role of town (yes town) moron of the day, again heavily implies the existence of one or two highly influential mafia.
Can a mafia team of two say something like MR/Wilgy just coast while the town captains just work themselves into killing a townie looking Alison, even while MacDougall, who is probably the best Alison read here, is saying she is town? Of course all things is possible in the eyes of the lord. But as I find myself explaining a lot, mafia is a game of probability analysis and I find it more plausible that this would not be the case and that in fact the gamestate was being influenced to be malignant in a more direct manner.
My analysis indicates that one of you are near sure to be mafia now with Marmot and Alison both dead and town.
It is either that, or you guys are playing really badly. Like no offense, but that's the situation. Because I am town. I'll readily admit I'm also playing pretty badly though so you're not alone. But if you guys are town together then yeah you guys are having proper clangers.
MacDougall wrote: ↑Sun Feb 27, 2022 7:31 pmDo we have any reason to believe he's simply not the BP he claims?
MacDougall wrote: ↑Sun Feb 27, 2022 8:04 pmoh damn sorryNANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Sun Feb 27, 2022 8:03 pmWatch it bub you're talking to the two time reigning host of the year and 2021 mvp finalist
MacDougall wrote: ↑Sun Feb 27, 2022 8:57 pmHard to say. He's been different to normal but like... would he be this obtuse if he was mafia? I don't think so?
MacDougall wrote: ↑Sun Feb 27, 2022 9:07 pmwhat if it's just nanook and wilgy after all?JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Sun Feb 27, 2022 9:07 pm To me this game feels neither like easy mode nor hard mode. Middle mode is the vibe which has me in the realms of MR and Dizzy, for example.
MacDougall wrote: ↑Sun Feb 27, 2022 9:10 pmsorry for contributing to this but like c4 telling me to "step it up" was lame... nobody needs me to flood the thread with garbage just to make myself look townierNANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Sun Feb 27, 2022 9:08 pmAt least half the posts from the higher posters, every time there's a piss fight, when it turns into a measuring contest of who's "contributed" the most, etc. etc.Hally wrote: ↑Sun Feb 27, 2022 9:03 pmwhat part of the thread do you care about?NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Sun Feb 27, 2022 9:01 pmI don't care about a large chunk of this thread, correctHally wrote: ↑Sun Feb 27, 2022 8:59 pmi don’t think he’s being obtuse about anythingMacDougall wrote: ↑Sun Feb 27, 2022 8:57 pmHard to say. He's been different to normal but like... would he be this obtuse if he was mafia? I don't think so?
seems like he just doesn’t care
MacDougall wrote: ↑Sun Feb 27, 2022 9:17 pmcool i don't give a fuck about your read lolNANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Sun Feb 27, 2022 9:15 pmI read him correctly two games in a row so now I believe I can read him correctly every game
MacDougall wrote: ↑Sun Feb 27, 2022 9:27 pmwhere was the joke?NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Sun Feb 27, 2022 9:26 pmOkMacDougall wrote: ↑Sun Feb 27, 2022 9:17 pmcool i don't give a fuck about your read lolNANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Sun Feb 27, 2022 9:15 pmI read him correctly two games in a row so now I believe I can read him correctly every game
Jokes aside i do think he's likely town
MacDougall wrote: ↑Mon Feb 28, 2022 11:16 pmwe are hard difference checked so we can openly troll people together and never get suspected as partners so let's do that
From Nanook
Spoiler: show
NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Thu Feb 24, 2022 6:22 pm Jay and mac already outed, mafia in shambles
NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Thu Feb 24, 2022 6:40 pm Nanook town hally town Jay and mac getting rolled
NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Thu Feb 24, 2022 6:47 pmThats fine as long as we kill him firstMaster Radishes wrote: ↑Thu Feb 24, 2022 6:43 pmNANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Thu Feb 24, 2022 6:22 pm Jay and mac already outed, mafia in shamblesNanook spewing Mac as his partner.NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Thu Feb 24, 2022 6:40 pm Nanook town hally town Jay and mac getting rolled![]()
NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Thu Feb 24, 2022 7:12 pmObviouslyMacDougall wrote: ↑Thu Feb 24, 2022 7:10 pmI haven't even seen my role PM yet but I'm assuming you're my partner.NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Thu Feb 24, 2022 6:40 pm Nanook town hally town Jay and mac getting rolled
NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Thu Feb 24, 2022 8:54 pmScumreading me is already doing that lolMacDougall wrote: ↑Thu Feb 24, 2022 8:52 pmnot yet I've got to fart some more to tank my town meta
NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Thu Feb 24, 2022 8:56 pmPretending to scumread me will also do thatMacDougall wrote: ↑Thu Feb 24, 2022 8:55 pmif you read again you will see I'm not actually scumreading youNANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Thu Feb 24, 2022 8:54 pmScumreading me is already doing that lolMacDougall wrote: ↑Thu Feb 24, 2022 8:52 pmnot yet I've got to fart some more to tank my town meta
NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Thu Feb 24, 2022 9:27 pmWink winkMacDougall wrote: ↑Thu Feb 24, 2022 9:26 pm nook is either exactly the beloved princess or mafia with no in between lol
NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Sat Feb 26, 2022 5:21 pmI think dizzy at least is likely town, and her other pushes that I've seen are some combo of me/mac/wilgy, so like...I think at most one mafia in those four and radishesNotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Sat Feb 26, 2022 5:20 pmThis is a valid reason to scum read, but I disagree with MR/dizzy being T/TNANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Sat Feb 26, 2022 5:18 pmWell I think she's been pushing mostly town soNotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Sat Feb 26, 2022 5:10 pm I would also potentially kill Nanook here, I don't believe he has a serious scum read on Alison.
NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Sun Feb 27, 2022 6:23 pm Anyways there's probably one in jay/mac/axe but not both, and one somewhere else
NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Sun Feb 27, 2022 7:05 pmFwiw I've seen him do the chart things during d1 pre flipMacDougall wrote: ↑Sun Feb 27, 2022 7:03 pmThat is not you're bread and butter you are openly lying. You as a rule completely abstain from doing association reads until a red flip. You are so full of shit lol.JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Sun Feb 27, 2022 7:02 pmYou are describing my bread and butter and saying "I don't do that". Wild.MacDougall wrote: ↑Sun Feb 27, 2022 6:59 pm Firstly, it's two posts Jay. And it demonstrates that you are reading Hally with an agenda. Whether it's to simply pocket her or whether it's because you're teammates, either way you're mafia because of it. A Jay who has Hally in their actual POE of three never rules her out of the POE out of hand because of perceived disassociation reads. You are not that guy. And also one of the other two is now a dead town so her being disassociated to Alison is actually now completely irrelevant.
Those two posts are separated by plenty of game thread. If you want to investigate my dealings with hally in good faith, you're going to have to open the ISO and actually look for the posts. You're omitting an absolute shitload, and you definitely know that already. Just incredible bullshit.
NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Sun Feb 27, 2022 8:03 pmWatch it bub you're talking to the two time reigning host of the year and 2021 mvp finalist
NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Sun Feb 27, 2022 9:11 pmNobody needs to be sorry, the game doesn't exist to cater to my interests or preferences lolMacDougall wrote: ↑Sun Feb 27, 2022 9:10 pmsorry for contributing to this but like c4 telling me to "step it up" was lame... nobody needs me to flood the thread with garbage just to make myself look townierNANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Sun Feb 27, 2022 9:08 pmAt least half the posts from the higher posters, every time there's a piss fight, when it turns into a measuring contest of who's "contributed" the most, etc. etc.Hally wrote: ↑Sun Feb 27, 2022 9:03 pmwhat part of the thread do you care about?NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Sun Feb 27, 2022 9:01 pmI don't care about a large chunk of this thread, correctHally wrote: ↑Sun Feb 27, 2022 8:59 pmi don’t think he’s being obtuse about anythingMacDougall wrote: ↑Sun Feb 27, 2022 8:57 pm
Hard to say. He's been different to normal but like... would he be this obtuse if he was mafia? I don't think so?
seems like he just doesn’t care
NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Sun Feb 27, 2022 9:15 pmI read him correctly two games in a row so now I believe I can read him correctly every game
NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Sun Feb 27, 2022 9:26 pmOkMacDougall wrote: ↑Sun Feb 27, 2022 9:17 pmcool i don't give a fuck about your read lolNANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Sun Feb 27, 2022 9:15 pmI read him correctly two games in a row so now I believe I can read him correctly every game
Jokes aside i do think he's likely town
NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Sun Feb 27, 2022 9:29 pmThe "I've read him safely two games in a row" part was obviously a jokeMacDougall wrote: ↑Sun Feb 27, 2022 9:27 pmwhere was the joke?NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Sun Feb 27, 2022 9:26 pmOkMacDougall wrote: ↑Sun Feb 27, 2022 9:17 pmcool i don't give a fuck about your read lolNANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Sun Feb 27, 2022 9:15 pmI read him correctly two games in a row so now I believe I can read him correctly every game
Jokes aside i do think he's likely town
Not that I have, cause I have, but that I think it means anything
NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Mon Feb 28, 2022 12:34 amHallyJaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Mon Feb 28, 2022 12:26 am @NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME any town reads apart from Wilgy and Mac?
mac is a conditional town read, I think there's one between you him and axe but not more than one
NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Mon Feb 28, 2022 12:40 amBelieve is a strong wordJaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Mon Feb 28, 2022 12:37 amSo would it be accurate for me to say that you currently believe the mafia team to be c4 + Mac/NAA/Jay?NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Mon Feb 28, 2022 12:36 amOne mafiaJaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Mon Feb 28, 2022 12:34 amOne town between us or one mafia?NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Mon Feb 28, 2022 12:34 am mac is a conditional town read, I think there's one between you him and axe but not more than one
I believe it has the highest probability at this point in time, sure
NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Mon Feb 28, 2022 7:49 pmIdk, I dont have to evaluate myself lol. I think I'm broadly in my town meta but idk that there's one specific thing that clears me. Maybe my entrance wrt mac and Jay or not forcing a read on axe, but![]()
NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Mon Feb 28, 2022 8:36 pm Fuck's sake
Kill c4, find the mafia in jay/axe/dizzy/mac, gg
[VOTE: nanook] aubergine
NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Mon Feb 28, 2022 11:51 pmIs there a better 21st century dancer than Jason sudeikis?MacDougall wrote: ↑Mon Feb 28, 2022 11:16 pmwe are hard difference checked so we can openly troll people together and never get suspected as partners so let's do that
I say no, there is not
Conclusion
I highlighted an early exchange on the Mac side that I think looks decent for dissociation. If they made that sequence up on the spot it'd be a pretty creative opener for them. Mac looks like he is actually explaining his headspace rather than blandly answering questions that his teammate robotically puts into the thread by default. Just in a general macro sense, this interaction doesn't feel to me like past iterations of town/town Mac/Nanook have felt, where they've kind of understood each other on some implicit level and vibed around the game. This time is awkward, disjointed, and in disagreement. That suggests a disconnect to me. Mac has also more or less kept Nanook in association with Wilgy, either as a literal proposed teammate or as a co-suspect derived from similar reasoning. I can vaguely see potential agendas if I squeeze, so I will be conservative and call it light green. Generally don't think they're teammates.
- by JaggedJimmyJay
- Tue Mar 01, 2022 2:09 am
- Forum: Previous Heists
- Topic: Highway Heist (MAFIA WIN)
- Replies: 3198
- Views: 53485
Re: Highway Heist (Day 2)
Dizzy and NAA
From Dizzy
From NAA
Conclusion
I don't get much from this on Dizzy's side. I think it's an okay look with respect to dissociation from NAA's side. His treatment of Dizzy, particularly toward EOD, is some of the stuff that I thought looked town anyway -- and in this particular context, I think it looks split from Dizzy. There's a degree of nuance in his read that he shared when prompted that he might not be getting proper credit for. It's only a couple moments like that, but it's something. Light green.
From Dizzy
Spoiler: show
Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Fri Feb 25, 2022 11:54 amWellNotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Fri Feb 25, 2022 11:38 amI would.Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Fri Feb 25, 2022 11:34 amUh. So you expect scum to openly hammer MR of he’s town? Seems dumb, to be frank. What if one or two are already on him?DrWilgy wrote: ↑Fri Feb 25, 2022 11:17 amBecause it adds perspective.
If MR is town, scum for some reason haven't done it yet. Either not present or afraid of the fall out.
Or he hasn't been hammered because their team is actively avoiding it.
Why is it either or. His wagon is pretty meh in any case. There’s plenty of time left in the day. Nobody expects a sudden hammer.
I don’t get and actually don’t buy that this is something you’re actually thinking about in this manner.
Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Fri Feb 25, 2022 7:16 pmYou are like actually very scummy with these posts. Have I just forgotten how to play with you. I'd vig you over most others in this game rn tbh tbhJaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Fri Feb 25, 2022 7:14 pm Outside c4, there's a general view forming that Alison is a lead suspect. I would say so too.
If so, what implications does this have for the other players? I am sensing a little bit of discord in the consensus beyond this point (not an unhealthy amount, but an observable amount), and it might do us well as a group to sort that problem if it is a problem. Who fits with mafia Alison? What happens to your view of the game if she is town?
So that was my reaction.
But to answer your question like a good citizen. Alison scum means town wins. Alison town means I look at you/Mac/Nanook/NAA probably.
Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Fri Feb 25, 2022 7:25 pmI kind of feel the opposite lol. I feel like Wilgy can be read over time. Not sure about NAA and he tends to be chopped or considered for chopping even if he's obvtown so.Hally wrote: ↑Fri Feb 25, 2022 7:23 pmi’m just not sure i actually want to kill alison D1 because if she’s a villager i think she can clear herself over time, whereas i find it less likely NAA or wilgy would if vDyslexicon wrote: ↑Fri Feb 25, 2022 7:19 pmLast time you listed suspects or who you wanted to vote, you didn't include Alison, pretty sure. And your response here was pretty much a joke. It was just weird. Are you afraid of being wrong or are you an alien shapeshifter.
But still never mind
but i do think she’s a wolf and i may end up just voting her idk
But bottom line, I just think Alison is the most likely mafia so that's where I'm voting. I feel that's a pretty sound strategy lol
Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Sat Feb 26, 2022 6:43 amHehehehehehNotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Sat Feb 26, 2022 1:38 amMy point is, I never put Alison in serious danger of being killed. (though I have been wrong on this before)
Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Sat Feb 26, 2022 6:38 amI don't disagree entirely with this.NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Sat Feb 26, 2022 1:23 amI mean, he would unvote to appease Hally as either alignment, I don't think it's ADDITIONALLY indicative. The fact that he didn't offer to unvote IS wolfy though, I think normally as town he's like yeah, I don't mind... But let's just see if other people are ok with it.
Here he was like YEAH IM FINE WITH IT
OH, other people aren't... Ok.
Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Sat Feb 26, 2022 6:54 am I guess I'd take any flip among Alison, Jimmay, NAA and Mac at this point.
Less interested in flipping Nook rn, but meh
Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Sat Feb 26, 2022 7:29 amI should add that my reads aren't really that different to yours tbh.Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Sat Feb 26, 2022 6:58 am @Alison Of you town read Wilgy, I expect you to describe meaning to me trying to town clear them when Hally and Jimmay were voting Wilgy. Other people were able to. Unless you’re just not paying attention. My biggest issue, again, is your solve doesn’t have substance or the substance is weak/bad like in the case of MR
c4/Marmot - shocked if mafia.
Hally - not shocked if mafia at all actually, but I still town read.
Wilgy - town just get with it
Jimmay - I actually just need someone to convince me one way or another, cause it's a mixed bag
Nanook - Shrug
NAA - Shrug
Mac - Playing some sour notes
Alison - Why is your reasoning for your reads on me and MR in particular so extremely bad
MR - Actually should do a lot more things
Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Sat Feb 26, 2022 2:38 pmMost players are willing to kill you on a whim. I will be willing to kill you on a whim all day phases in this game. This is an invitation to whomever this concerns.NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Sat Feb 26, 2022 12:56 pm I''m surprised Marmot is so willing to kill me on a whim.
Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Sat Feb 26, 2022 3:01 pm(There's only two wolfes, so traction might not be the most reliable thing to go after here).Hally wrote: ↑Sat Feb 26, 2022 2:20 pm i wanna kill NAA over mac and alison
to me NAA’s play just reads like open wolfing while daring anyone to do anything about it and then snickering to himself when he skates by
also the difficulty i’ve had getting traction on my push on him while other targets have gotten votes very easily indicates he’s a wolf
i see he’s since gotten a vote from marmot but idc about that because i v read marmot, and jay seems to be the only other person willing to push NAA with me and i v read him too, whereas it feels like every other wagon has been joined by people i don’t v read
NAA just feels like the play here
In any case, I'd vote NAA any day, and especially this game.
Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Sat Feb 26, 2022 3:36 pmOh. Yeah. I forgot about the sheeping part. That would be trolly, got youHally wrote: ↑Sat Feb 26, 2022 3:34 pmNAA opening the game saying he’s going to hard sheep his teammate and then continuing to do that and hard defending her even as she’s a consensus wolf readDyslexicon wrote: ↑Sat Feb 26, 2022 3:04 pmWhat exactly would be a whole new level of wolf trolling?Hally wrote: ↑Sat Feb 26, 2022 2:32 pmwould be surprised if it’s exactly NAA/alison just because it would be like a whole new level of wolf trolling lol, but i don’t think they’re v/v eitherMaster Radishes wrote: ↑Sat Feb 26, 2022 2:23 pm Imagine it's Alison/NAA and both wolves have sat on my wagon for the bulk of the Day.
The fun thing about always being LHF is being bait.
i would actually maybe soft clear the other if one of them flips wolf, so we should try to lunch the wolf in there
it’s not trolling in a literal sense but it’s about as openwolfy as you can get lol
Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Sun Feb 27, 2022 6:39 pmWhat is this referring to? You saying lol?NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Sun Feb 27, 2022 6:03 pm I was so shocked when Alison said she was mafia.
You can now kill me for TMI.
Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Sun Feb 27, 2022 7:31 pm Nook/NAA would be underwhelming, but out of the question ig
Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Mon Feb 28, 2022 6:05 pmNot to stomp on your stomp, but I almost asked NAA about it myself, but then I remembered it was futile.JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Mon Feb 28, 2022 5:34 pm Probing NAA for explanations makes about as much sense as pushing Radishes to make relevant posts on Day 1.
It has the appearance of a genuine motion, but it has very little promise given the player being probed.
Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Mon Feb 28, 2022 6:29 pm Sure, let's say MR/Nook. Which I think would make NAA's reads not trash, which is nice.
From NAA
Spoiler: show
NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Thu Feb 24, 2022 11:14 pm I'm still sheeping Alison, but I kind of think JJJ/c4/dizzy has a higher chance of hitting mafia.
NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Fri Feb 25, 2022 11:38 amI would.Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Fri Feb 25, 2022 11:34 amUh. So you expect scum to openly hammer MR of he’s town? Seems dumb, to be frank. What if one or two are already on him?DrWilgy wrote: ↑Fri Feb 25, 2022 11:17 amBecause it adds perspective.
If MR is town, scum for some reason haven't done it yet. Either not present or afraid of the fall out.
Or he hasn't been hammered because their team is actively avoiding it.
Why is it either or. His wagon is pretty meh in any case. There’s plenty of time left in the day. Nobody expects a sudden hammer.
I don’t get and actually don’t buy that this is something you’re actually thinking about in this manner.
NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Sat Feb 26, 2022 12:53 amTop Guess: JJJMacDougall wrote: ↑Sat Feb 26, 2022 12:52 amcare to guess whomst? there are only 4 names there.NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Sat Feb 26, 2022 12:50 amI'm an ape, and I resent this negative connotation to the term.MacDougall wrote: ↑Sat Feb 26, 2022 12:48 amthis is also supremely relateable because it's exactly how you rock apes are treating my read on axe and it's what overbearing towncores do
Also, I think there's at least 1 mafia on Alison. relatively high confidence.
2nd Guess: Dizzy
Somehow I think the other two are more likely to vote Alison D1 as town. And I think JJJ's been scummy in general.
NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Sat Feb 26, 2022 5:06 pm I would also kill MR. MR or dizzy best chances of hitting mafia
NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Sat Feb 26, 2022 5:13 pmMR see AlisonJaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Sat Feb 26, 2022 5:11 pmI know you're not the explaining type, but it would be valuable to me if you could just expand this by like one more sentence.NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Sat Feb 26, 2022 5:06 pm I would also kill MR. MR or dizzy best chances of hitting mafia
Dizzy see voting history - idgi, it seems like the objective was to always vote Alison and to appear to be doing other things throughout the day.
That is all
NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Sat Feb 26, 2022 5:20 pmThis is a valid reason to scum read, but I disagree with MR/dizzy being T/TNANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Sat Feb 26, 2022 5:18 pmWell I think she's been pushing mostly town soNotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Sat Feb 26, 2022 5:10 pm I would also potentially kill Nanook here, I don't believe he has a serious scum read on Alison.
NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Sun Feb 27, 2022 6:04 pm For me, kill order is MR, Dizzy, Nanook.
If scum is outside of that... Well, mistakes were made.
NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Mon Feb 28, 2022 3:35 pm Kill MR, Dizzy, Nanook... The order doesn't matter. Killing Alison D1 was a travesty.
NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Mon Feb 28, 2022 3:42 pm I think this game is actually really easy.
There's a hard difference check between Nanook and Mac.
There is a difference check between Dizzy and MR.
If Mac is mafia, it's probably with Dizzy.
NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Mon Feb 28, 2022 3:50 pmYou're both scummy, and I trust Alison sufficiently to carry her legacy out. This is why I sheeped her from the moment I thought she was town.Master Radishes wrote: ↑Mon Feb 28, 2022 3:47 pm Why am I and Dizzy in a dichotomy? That was an Alison thing and now it's an NAA thing and I don't know why.
NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Mon Feb 28, 2022 9:10 pmMac... No, Dizzy... Err... One of those things.JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Mon Feb 28, 2022 8:09 pm To anyone who cares to answer:
Who's the most likely player to flip mafia that is not contained in the following set: [Nanook, MR, Wilgy]?
Conclusion
I don't get much from this on Dizzy's side. I think it's an okay look with respect to dissociation from NAA's side. His treatment of Dizzy, particularly toward EOD, is some of the stuff that I thought looked town anyway -- and in this particular context, I think it looks split from Dizzy. There's a degree of nuance in his read that he shared when prompted that he might not be getting proper credit for. It's only a couple moments like that, but it's something. Light green.
- by JaggedJimmyJay
- Tue Mar 01, 2022 1:53 am
- Forum: Previous Heists
- Topic: Highway Heist (MAFIA WIN)
- Replies: 3198
- Views: 53485
Re: Highway Heist (Day 2)
stray italics on the loose, lock your doors
- by JaggedJimmyJay
- Tue Mar 01, 2022 1:52 am
- Forum: Previous Heists
- Topic: Highway Heist (MAFIA WIN)
- Replies: 3198
- Views: 53485
Re: Highway Heist (Day 2)
Dizzy and Nanook
From Dizzy
From Nanook
Conclusion
Nanook's read on Dizzy followed a similar trajectory to Nanook's read on me, albeit with a slightly more conclusive "town" stance lasting to the present. That parallel is probably decent for dissociation, but that will mean less to people who aren't me. I also think Dizzy's suspicion of Nanook has the feel of something not intended for the sake of distancing but rather being actual antagonism (for whatever motivations). Light green.
From Dizzy
Spoiler: show
Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Thu Feb 24, 2022 9:32 pmlolJaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Thu Feb 24, 2022 9:31 pm I'm treating Nanook and Alison as claim and counterclaim.
You are so funny sometimes.
Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Fri Feb 25, 2022 5:59 am After careful consideration, I have concluded that Nanook hasn't said anything towny at any point, and if he was town, he would have by now. He just straight up doesn't care about his reads or finding wolves. Lock mafia.
[VOTE: Nanook] aubergine
Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Fri Feb 25, 2022 6:27 am After a hot, steamy, sensual shower, where I thought about the game (I don't car about mafia anymore haha), I have concluded that Alison is also mafia. I will probably explain this in more depth later. Just wanted to let you all know.
Alison+Nanook
Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Fri Feb 25, 2022 6:45 pmIt goes without saying though. We all know who would actually push a hammer early and who wouldn't. S H R U GNANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Fri Feb 25, 2022 4:42 pmAlison Jay you hally dizzy radishes I think have said some form of itMarmot wrote: ↑Fri Feb 25, 2022 3:12 pmWho has said that though?NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Fri Feb 25, 2022 3:04 pmLiterally everyone saying things like "I don't want a hammer" lolMarmot wrote: ↑Fri Feb 25, 2022 2:26 pmNANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Fri Feb 25, 2022 2:25 pm Btw running people up is kind of pointless if you're vocally unwilling to hammer lol, the whole point of running people up is to see what happens when they get close to a hammer, but there's no tension to it if everyone knows there are only two or three people in this game whod actually hammer lol
Who is vocally unwilling to hammer?
Idk I'm not fact checking right now that's just offhand
Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Fri Feb 25, 2022 7:16 pmYou are like actually very scummy with these posts. Have I just forgotten how to play with you. I'd vig you over most others in this game rn tbh tbhJaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Fri Feb 25, 2022 7:14 pm Outside c4, there's a general view forming that Alison is a lead suspect. I would say so too.
If so, what implications does this have for the other players? I am sensing a little bit of discord in the consensus beyond this point (not an unhealthy amount, but an observable amount), and it might do us well as a group to sort that problem if it is a problem. Who fits with mafia Alison? What happens to your view of the game if she is town?
So that was my reaction.
But to answer your question like a good citizen. Alison scum means town wins. Alison town means I look at you/Mac/Nanook/NAA probably.
Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Fri Feb 25, 2022 7:20 pmThe whole thing is just moot ig is my (non)pointNANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Fri Feb 25, 2022 7:19 pmSure, im just saying its pointless to run people up if there's no threat of hammer, not that you shouldn't say it, cause you're right we all know there are like...3, maybe 4 people in this game that woild d1 hammer lol
Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Fri Feb 25, 2022 7:33 pmEw. Worse than pandasNANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Fri Feb 25, 2022 7:33 pmYeahHally wrote: ↑Fri Feb 25, 2022 7:32 pmwait actually?JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Fri Feb 25, 2022 7:27 pm We probably only get two mischops in this game. I suggest we eliminate the top suspect every time without regard for who it is. The game is unlikely to offer a wealth of time and chop resources to sort itself out. This might be speaking the obvious, but I don't think it's obvious in practice.
Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Sat Feb 26, 2022 6:54 am I guess I'd take any flip among Alison, Jimmay, NAA and Mac at this point.
Less interested in flipping Nook rn, but meh
Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Sat Feb 26, 2022 7:29 amI should add that my reads aren't really that different to yours tbh.Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Sat Feb 26, 2022 6:58 am @Alison Of you town read Wilgy, I expect you to describe meaning to me trying to town clear them when Hally and Jimmay were voting Wilgy. Other people were able to. Unless you’re just not paying attention. My biggest issue, again, is your solve doesn’t have substance or the substance is weak/bad like in the case of MR
c4/Marmot - shocked if mafia.
Hally - not shocked if mafia at all actually, but I still town read.
Wilgy - town just get with it
Jimmay - I actually just need someone to convince me one way or another, cause it's a mixed bag
Nanook - Shrug
NAA - Shrug
Mac - Playing some sour notes
Alison - Why is your reasoning for your reads on me and MR in particular so extremely bad
MR - Actually should do a lot more things
Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Sat Feb 26, 2022 3:03 pmYeah. That was my shower theory. I'm not as enthused about a scum!Nook here, but it's not impossible at all.JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Sat Feb 26, 2022 3:01 pm Question for the audience while I try to figure out interactions:
Is Nanook compatible with Alison? There's clearly voting animosity that exists, but it also strikes me as blank and not outside the realm of bussing. Hard to say. I welcome takes.
Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Sun Feb 27, 2022 6:31 pmOk.
You and Nook?
Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Sun Feb 27, 2022 7:18 pm Obligatory
What if Mac/Jay are both town and the real scums are like Hally and/or Nook or something?
Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Sun Feb 27, 2022 7:28 pmSure. Imma vote Nook nowJaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Sun Feb 27, 2022 7:27 pmIt's generally true. It's a very easy thing to say when Jay starts yelling. Wow Jay is yelling, what?Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Sun Feb 27, 2022 7:26 pmWhich is trueJaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Sun Feb 27, 2022 7:25 pmMaybe. I only recall one post, in which he observed I don't usually act like this (@ Mac).Hally wrote: ↑Sun Feb 27, 2022 7:25 pmdidn’t he leave?JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Sun Feb 27, 2022 7:22 pm MR can be mafia. He just sat and watched this happen.
It was more typical of me circa 2017ish
Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Sun Feb 27, 2022 7:31 pm Nook/NAA would be underwhelming, but out of the question ig
Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Mon Feb 28, 2022 6:29 pm Sure, let's say MR/Nook. Which I think would make NAA's reads not trash, which is nice.
Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Mon Feb 28, 2022 7:11 pmNanook is probably one at least
Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Mon Feb 28, 2022 7:29 pmI actually think it's a decent way to read you. I sense you caring about expressing your reads when you are town.NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Mon Feb 28, 2022 7:24 pm "He doesn't care" and "he seems flat" are just awful ways to read me
Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Mon Feb 28, 2022 7:38 pmI was wrong on one game we played on MU a while back.NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Mon Feb 28, 2022 7:30 pm....and you have a mediocre read on me, and read me wrong for almost exactly this reason last time, iirc?Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Mon Feb 28, 2022 7:29 pmI actually think it's a decent way to read you. I sense you caring about expressing your reads when you are town.NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Mon Feb 28, 2022 7:24 pm "He doesn't care" and "he seems flat" are just awful ways to read me
In any case, my vote is still worth 1 so![]()
From Nanook
Spoiler: show
NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Thu Feb 24, 2022 9:31 pm Anyways, hally is town Jay is town dizzy is town mac is town
Ez clap
NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Fri Feb 25, 2022 2:22 pm I no longer have town reads on Jay or dizzy
NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Fri Feb 25, 2022 4:42 pmAlison Jay you hally dizzy radishes I think have said some form of itMarmot wrote: ↑Fri Feb 25, 2022 3:12 pmWho has said that though?NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Fri Feb 25, 2022 3:04 pmLiterally everyone saying things like "I don't want a hammer" lolMarmot wrote: ↑Fri Feb 25, 2022 2:26 pmNANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Fri Feb 25, 2022 2:25 pm Btw running people up is kind of pointless if you're vocally unwilling to hammer lol, the whole point of running people up is to see what happens when they get close to a hammer, but there's no tension to it if everyone knows there are only two or three people in this game whod actually hammer lol
Who is vocally unwilling to hammer?
Idk I'm not fact checking right now that's just offhand
NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Fri Feb 25, 2022 7:19 pmSure, im just saying its pointless to run people up if there's no threat of hammer, not that you shouldn't say it, cause you're right we all know there are like...3, maybe 4 people in this game that woild d1 hammer lolDyslexicon wrote: ↑Fri Feb 25, 2022 6:45 pmIt goes without saying though. We all know who would actually push a hammer early and who wouldn't. S H R U GNANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Fri Feb 25, 2022 4:42 pmAlison Jay you hally dizzy radishes I think have said some form of itMarmot wrote: ↑Fri Feb 25, 2022 3:12 pmWho has said that though?NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Fri Feb 25, 2022 3:04 pmLiterally everyone saying things like "I don't want a hammer" lolMarmot wrote: ↑Fri Feb 25, 2022 2:26 pmNANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Fri Feb 25, 2022 2:25 pm Btw running people up is kind of pointless if you're vocally unwilling to hammer lol, the whole point of running people up is to see what happens when they get close to a hammer, but there's no tension to it if everyone knows there are only two or three people in this game whod actually hammer lol
Who is vocally unwilling to hammer?
Idk I'm not fact checking right now that's just offhand
NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Fri Feb 25, 2022 7:31 pmHally mac dizzy wilgy tbd tbdJaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Fri Feb 25, 2022 7:22 pm Name 6 townies not including yourself. Get it right and you win the game. Anyone fancy a try?
NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Fri Feb 25, 2022 10:54 pmInternal shudderDyslexicon wrote: ↑Fri Feb 25, 2022 7:33 pmEw. Worse than pandasNANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Fri Feb 25, 2022 7:33 pmYeahHally wrote: ↑Fri Feb 25, 2022 7:32 pmwait actually?JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Fri Feb 25, 2022 7:27 pm We probably only get two mischops in this game. I suggest we eliminate the top suspect every time without regard for who it is. The game is unlikely to offer a wealth of time and chop resources to sort itself out. This might be speaking the obvious, but I don't think it's obvious in practice.
NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Sat Feb 26, 2022 5:12 pm The you being dizzy but it applies broadly
NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Sat Feb 26, 2022 5:21 pmI think dizzy at least is likely town, and her other pushes that I've seen are some combo of me/mac/wilgy, so like...I think at most one mafia in those four and radishesNotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Sat Feb 26, 2022 5:20 pmThis is a valid reason to scum read, but I disagree with MR/dizzy being T/TNANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Sat Feb 26, 2022 5:18 pmWell I think she's been pushing mostly town soNotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Sat Feb 26, 2022 5:10 pm I would also potentially kill Nanook here, I don't believe he has a serious scum read on Alison.
NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Sun Feb 27, 2022 8:58 pmHe feels roughly the same as pandasHally wrote: ↑Sun Feb 27, 2022 8:41 pmwhy did you v read dizzy D1? and did you have a read on radishes?NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Sat Feb 26, 2022 5:21 pmI think dizzy at least is likely town, and her other pushes that I've seen are some combo of me/mac/wilgy, so like...I think at most one mafia in those four and radishesNotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Sat Feb 26, 2022 5:20 pmThis is a valid reason to scum read, but I disagree with MR/dizzy being T/TNANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Sat Feb 26, 2022 5:18 pmWell I think she's been pushing mostly town soNotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Sat Feb 26, 2022 5:10 pm I would also potentially kill Nanook here, I don't believe he has a serious scum read on Alison.
No
NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Mon Feb 28, 2022 7:30 pm....and you have a mediocre read on me, and read me wrong for almost exactly this reason last time, iirc?Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Mon Feb 28, 2022 7:29 pmI actually think it's a decent way to read you. I sense you caring about expressing your reads when you are town.NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Mon Feb 28, 2022 7:24 pm "He doesn't care" and "he seems flat" are just awful ways to read me
NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Mon Feb 28, 2022 8:36 pm Fuck's sake
Kill c4, find the mafia in jay/axe/dizzy/mac, gg
[VOTE: nanook] aubergine
Conclusion
Nanook's read on Dizzy followed a similar trajectory to Nanook's read on me, albeit with a slightly more conclusive "town" stance lasting to the present. That parallel is probably decent for dissociation, but that will mean less to people who aren't me. I also think Dizzy's suspicion of Nanook has the feel of something not intended for the sake of distancing but rather being actual antagonism (for whatever motivations). Light green.
- by JaggedJimmyJay
- Tue Mar 01, 2022 1:33 am
- Forum: Previous Heists
- Topic: Highway Heist (MAFIA WIN)
- Replies: 3198
- Views: 53485
Re: Highway Heist (Day 2)
Thanks again @c4e5g3d5. Would you say the following summary accurately captures your conclusions?
Feel free to change if desired.Per c4, does Radish fit with...
JJJ? No
Wilgy? Maybe no, not conclusive
Dizzy? Possible
NAA? No
Hally? Inconclusive
Mac? Possible
Nanook? Very possible
- by JaggedJimmyJay
- Tue Mar 01, 2022 1:29 am
- Forum: Previous Heists
- Topic: Highway Heist (MAFIA WIN)
- Replies: 3198
- Views: 53485
Re: Highway Heist (Day 2)
Dizzy and Mac
From Dizzy
From Mac
Conclusion
First off, sorry for the massive spoilers. I realize most of those posts on their own aren't "necessary". However, I think there's sometimes insight to be gleaned just from sheer volume. In a game with only two mafia, such extensive interactions as these are almost at face value something I view with an eyebrow cocked. Mac himself alluded to the objective of the two teammates to dissociate early and often. There are isolated moments at the local/micro level that I think suggest dissociation (e.g. the two actually annoying each other; I highlighted one example in Dizzy's posts). Globally/macro I might have a little concern about the constancy of suspicion without it leading anywhere serious. Light green.
From Dizzy
Spoiler: show
Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Thu Feb 24, 2022 8:50 pmOops, my bad. 2) is 100 % correct.MacDougall wrote: ↑Thu Feb 24, 2022 8:49 pmbro you 100% hate playing wolf we talked about this several times in the GoC
Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Thu Feb 24, 2022 9:00 pmNot me noticing your post rank after reading this post lolMacDougall wrote: ↑Thu Feb 24, 2022 8:59 pm mac is in his wolfrange right now is realistically something you can say on page 5 of every game btw
Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Thu Feb 24, 2022 9:03 pmYou're the easiest push to make though.MacDougall wrote: ↑Thu Feb 24, 2022 9:00 pmI was implying you would be the easiest push to be making because you had been the scummiest slot yet nobody was which is a fact I felt would benefit the town to consider.
Spoiler: show
Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Thu Feb 24, 2022 9:06 pm Game felt so much scummier when Mac arrived, and not just Mac lol. Wtf is that all about
Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Thu Feb 24, 2022 9:11 pmWhen is the sexy mud wrestling bit of the story?MacDougall wrote: ↑Thu Feb 24, 2022 9:10 pmI can explain.Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Thu Feb 24, 2022 9:06 pm Game felt so much scummier when Mac arrived, and not just Mac lol. Wtf is that all about
I arrived to the game with Nanook and Jay already voting me. I hadn't got into the hub yet so I legit figured I was mafia with Nanook and said as much cuz funny wifom. Then I saw my actual rolecard and then I decided to play wolfy on purpose to reaction test people and Hally failed it.
Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Thu Feb 24, 2022 9:12 pmGlad to hear it!MacDougall wrote: ↑Thu Feb 24, 2022 9:11 pmcleared up well thanks for asking
Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Thu Feb 24, 2022 9:12 pm I don't really worry much about Mac. He's a lousy wolf that often wins.
Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Thu Feb 24, 2022 9:12 pmMuch like me when I think about itDyslexicon wrote: ↑Thu Feb 24, 2022 9:12 pm I don't really worry much about Mac. He's a lousy wolf that often wins.![]()
Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Thu Feb 24, 2022 9:13 pmI fixed your version of this.MacDougall wrote: ↑Thu Feb 24, 2022 9:12 pm I have an idea.
All of you should blindly sheep me D1. Then if the person I vote flips GREEN you lock me as inno child. If the person I vote flips RED you policy me. How does that sound?
Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Thu Feb 24, 2022 9:14 pm Mac is probably town tbh
Add Hally, c4, Marmot and Radish. YES RADISH
Towncoreville wow
Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Thu Feb 24, 2022 9:30 pmThis is so funny, cause I actually am, but nobody will believe me so it's cool.MacDougall wrote: ↑Thu Feb 24, 2022 9:28 pmhow can this be true when @Dyslexicon is the beloved princess?
Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Thu Feb 24, 2022 9:35 pmNot me.MacDougall wrote: ↑Thu Feb 24, 2022 9:34 pmfwiw I usually find wolves do this more than town lolDyslexicon wrote: ↑Thu Feb 24, 2022 9:33 pm Did anyone notice that I did the incredibly fool proof town tell of posting way past when I said I was going to sleep?
As if I wasn't town read enough already!
Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Fri Feb 25, 2022 6:28 pmIf MR is red, Mac is probably more likely wolf lol. But MR is town anyways so waheveh
Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Fri Feb 25, 2022 6:46 pmHow about you explain how it's towny?MacDougall wrote: ↑Fri Feb 25, 2022 6:44 pmI read his iso and it was townie... explain how it wasn't? first 9 posts.
Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Fri Feb 25, 2022 7:16 pmYou are like actually very scummy with these posts. Have I just forgotten how to play with you. I'd vig you over most others in this game rn tbh tbhJaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Fri Feb 25, 2022 7:14 pm Outside c4, there's a general view forming that Alison is a lead suspect. I would say so too.
If so, what implications does this have for the other players? I am sensing a little bit of discord in the consensus beyond this point (not an unhealthy amount, but an observable amount), and it might do us well as a group to sort that problem if it is a problem. Who fits with mafia Alison? What happens to your view of the game if she is town?
So that was my reaction.
But to answer your question like a good citizen. Alison scum means town wins. Alison town means I look at you/Mac/Nanook/NAA probably.
Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Sat Feb 26, 2022 6:23 amYes, it is. You were the one with a (counter) opinion.MacDougall wrote: ↑Sat Feb 26, 2022 12:19 amit's 9 fucking posts, why is the burden of proof on me? people are >rand town by default so the burden of proof is not on me.
Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Sat Feb 26, 2022 6:25 amThe hyperbole and the drama of it all lolMacDougall wrote: ↑Sat Feb 26, 2022 12:22 am like how much can I actually elaborate on a read I made from skimming a guy's 9 post ISO? do you want me to break it down character by character?
Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Sat Feb 26, 2022 6:43 amI agree, but don't know if it's meaningful.MacDougall wrote: ↑Sat Feb 26, 2022 6:40 amso you disagree somewhat or agree partially?Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Sat Feb 26, 2022 6:38 amI don't disagree entirely with this.NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Sat Feb 26, 2022 1:23 amI mean, he would unvote to appease Hally as either alignment, I don't think it's ADDITIONALLY indicative. The fact that he didn't offer to unvote IS wolfy though, I think normally as town he's like yeah, I don't mind... But let's just see if other people are ok with it.
Here he was like YEAH IM FINE WITH IT
OH, other people aren't... Ok.
Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Sat Feb 26, 2022 6:52 amI'm also unenthused by Mac.Alison wrote: ↑Sat Feb 26, 2022 4:36 am I have just eaten a pot of Samyang noodles. My sinuses are clear and my brain is tired. I have read up.
- Mac's re-entrance into the thread does not spark joy. He appears to be generating chaos for the sake of it when I think he would approach the gamestate in a more orderly fashion if his reads were as he claims they were. Specifically, if he townreads me and sees me in danger of receiving a guillotine to the neck, I believe he would not be doing things like, eg. "voting c4 for science". I'm scratching my head why he (presumably) townreads me over the "rock apes" mindmeld. Surely I'd be frustrated at having a read confidence misrepped as either alignment.
- I still do not want to vote Mac off today. My reasoning remains the same.
- I have seen NAA's argument that JJJ is most likely to be the scum voting me. I definitely think I am being pushed by scum. Radish and Dizzy are more likely than JJJ, though. I tend to think that JJJ is the kind of townie that ramps up the townieness over time. If he is town, he will show that townieness in a brilliant dazzle as time goes on until it is undeniable to everyone and he becomes universally townread. If it is later in the game and he still hasn't ramped up, then maybe scrutinize him then. I have other leads to pursue in the meantime.
- I think Wilgy is town now. Gut read. Believe it or don't.
- Nanook takes Wilgy's place of suspicion in the POE for trying to hammer me. I had Wilgy paired with Axe specifically because Axe seemed willing to sheep my push on anyone but him, but I don't think Nanook and Axe read as strongly paired. They could be partners, it's not out of the question, but it's not an association I think is significantly more likely than Nanook + other person or Axe + other person. I think in this updated solve I'd throw Nanook in as a wild card replacement of one of Radish/Mac if I'm wrong on them. Radish/Mac/Dizzy/Nanook are floating around in some kind of scummy stew. I think there's two mafia in there and the most likely exact pair is Radish/Mac but I wouldn't be shocked to see any of the others in one of the slots. Axe is less scummy than the four of them especially given his hard Alison siding and the fact that the person I partnered him with now reads as town to me. He is 5th in the POE.
Good night.
I also think Wilgy is town.
Problem is, your solve just seems weak and bad to me. I took issue with your reasons for scum reading MR, because they just seem like made up bs, as I said, prescribing tons meaning into a simple joke. You never addressed this, and I would like you to. Your tag-on that I'm scum for "not doing anything" is bad as well. I have certainly done a lot. I have 5 town reads (that might change lol) and I am straight up accusing you for specific reasons. Me "doing anything" is not even a reliable way to read me. However, I'm not one to get up in your face and "open wolf" or whatever you think I would be doing here as wolf. I don't know. Maybe you're omgusing a bit or whatever, but I find your read on both me and MR particularly weak at a level I don't expect from you as town. Even if you are town and MR is mafia, I find your MR read weak.
So that just makes it hard to believe that you have such confidence in this.
Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Sat Feb 26, 2022 6:54 am I guess I'd take any flip among Alison, Jimmay, NAA and Mac at this point.
Less interested in flipping Nook rn, but meh
Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Sat Feb 26, 2022 7:24 amYou might be bad for doing things that won't lead anywhere. Cause your shit doesn't lead anywhere when you are mafia. I believe it's the number one difference between your wolf and town game.MacDougall wrote: ↑Sat Feb 26, 2022 7:04 amwell nobody has said shit about it except you and c4 hasn't posted so not sure why you're framing this like I'm bad for trying something new
c4 is pretty consensus town read.
Your particular brand of pouting isn't inspiring either.
Just my opinion man
Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Sat Feb 26, 2022 7:29 amI should add that my reads aren't really that different to yours tbh.Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Sat Feb 26, 2022 6:58 am @Alison Of you town read Wilgy, I expect you to describe meaning to me trying to town clear them when Hally and Jimmay were voting Wilgy. Other people were able to. Unless you’re just not paying attention. My biggest issue, again, is your solve doesn’t have substance or the substance is weak/bad like in the case of MR
c4/Marmot - shocked if mafia.
Hally - not shocked if mafia at all actually, but I still town read.
Wilgy - town just get with it
Jimmay - I actually just need someone to convince me one way or another, cause it's a mixed bag
Nanook - Shrug
NAA - Shrug
Mac - Playing some sour notes
Alison - Why is your reasoning for your reads on me and MR in particular so extremely bad
MR - Actually should do a lot more things
Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Sat Feb 26, 2022 7:49 amOh wow burnMacDougall wrote: ↑Sat Feb 26, 2022 7:46 amwell your shit only leads to a dead town soDyslexicon wrote: ↑Sat Feb 26, 2022 7:24 amYou might be bad for doing things that won't lead anywhere. Cause your shit doesn't lead anywhere when you are mafia. I believe it's the number one difference between your wolf and town game.MacDougall wrote: ↑Sat Feb 26, 2022 7:04 amwell nobody has said shit about it except you and c4 hasn't posted so not sure why you're framing this like I'm bad for trying something new
c4 is pretty consensus town read.
Your particular brand of pouting isn't inspiring either.
Just my opinion man
Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Sat Feb 26, 2022 2:32 pmYou're a possible chop. C4 is not. So it leads somewhere. Potentially. Your alignment is irrelevant.MacDougall wrote: ↑Sat Feb 26, 2022 8:10 amno burn intended I am just trying to make you recognise the hypocrisy of claiming my play "leads nowhere" when your current play is to yolo a vote onto a town Mac
If you want to understand my perspective. But if you want to moan, feel free.
Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Sat Feb 26, 2022 2:47 pm I'm just like scolding everyones play style and how they are "doing it wrong".
Alison, get better reads Jesus.
Jimmay, write differently.
Mac, don't be a pouty poutface.
^Dizzy is confirmed town. Thank you.
Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Sat Feb 26, 2022 3:37 pm@MacDougall Why tf would you volume clear Hally. BoooMarmot wrote: ↑Sat Feb 26, 2022 3:36 pmNANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Fri Feb 25, 2022 12:52 am I'm already volume clearing hally and mac idgaf
Never mind that was nanook
He volume cleared Mac in the same post. :/
Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Sun Feb 27, 2022 6:41 pmVote Hally with me. It will be greatMacDougall wrote: ↑Sun Feb 27, 2022 6:40 pm there is very little chance my vote ends up on anyone not named jay or hally today and that's not having read anything from day 2 so far
Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Sun Feb 27, 2022 6:45 pmI played maybe the biggest part, and I could tell it was a mistake as it was happening hehMacDougall wrote: ↑Sun Feb 27, 2022 6:43 pm Funny you say that Jay because I don't believe that either of you would view the day as having played out the way that it did and think I had anything to do with it, do you really think that Alison goes over day 1 without the mafia playing a significant role in her demise? I don't.
Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Sun Feb 27, 2022 6:48 pmBut it’s true. Don’t really thing Jay is mafia. But what I think isn’t likely to be worth muchMacDougall wrote: ↑Sun Feb 27, 2022 6:46 pmthat isn't helping my point right nowDyslexicon wrote: ↑Sun Feb 27, 2022 6:45 pmI played maybe the biggest part, and I could tell it was a mistake as it was happening hehMacDougall wrote: ↑Sun Feb 27, 2022 6:43 pm Funny you say that Jay because I don't believe that either of you would view the day as having played out the way that it did and think I had anything to do with it, do you really think that Alison goes over day 1 without the mafia playing a significant role in her demise? I don't.
Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Sun Feb 27, 2022 6:49 pmYou were pushed a decent deal for a d1. You’re not making convincing points tbhMacDougall wrote: ↑Sun Feb 27, 2022 6:46 pm Furthermore I will add that nobody outright attacking me (the way Jay and Hally have done right now) d1 is a strong indicator that it's because I was pushing an incorrect POE and wasn't being a threat. Jay and Hally at multiple points exhibited TMI that I was town.
Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Sun Feb 27, 2022 6:55 pm Mac. You’re open wolfing worse than me, regardless of your alignment. Sads.
Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Sun Feb 27, 2022 6:58 pmI’m voting Hally now.MacDougall wrote: ↑Sun Feb 27, 2022 6:56 pmThese types of comments are why good chops on good players never go through.Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Sun Feb 27, 2022 6:55 pm Mac. You’re open wolfing worse than me, regardless of your alignment. Sads.
You could join.
Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Sun Feb 27, 2022 7:02 pmDidn’t you just spend the last pages declaring how Jimmay and Hally are teammates.MacDougall wrote: ↑Sun Feb 27, 2022 7:01 pmNah pass, Hally is obvious town from derp clearing herself after Alison fake claimed mafia.Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Sun Feb 27, 2022 6:58 pmI’m voting Hally now.MacDougall wrote: ↑Sun Feb 27, 2022 6:56 pmThese types of comments are why good chops on good players never go through.Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Sun Feb 27, 2022 6:55 pm Mac. You’re open wolfing worse than me, regardless of your alignment. Sads.
You could join.
You can calm down with the open wolfing now lol
Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Sun Feb 27, 2022 7:04 pmWhy does Hally’s posts count as derp clears, while Jimnay’s does not?MacDougall wrote: ↑Sun Feb 27, 2022 7:01 pmNah pass, Hally is obvious town from derp clearing herself after Alison fake claimed mafia.Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Sun Feb 27, 2022 6:58 pmI’m voting Hally now.MacDougall wrote: ↑Sun Feb 27, 2022 6:56 pmThese types of comments are why good chops on good players never go through.Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Sun Feb 27, 2022 6:55 pm Mac. You’re open wolfing worse than me, regardless of your alignment. Sads.
You could join.
Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Sun Feb 27, 2022 7:06 pmSo it’s me and Jay, since you just cleared Hally from derps?MacDougall wrote: ↑Sun Feb 27, 2022 7:04 pm In the triangle of Dyslexicon, Hally and Jay there are always two mafia.
Like… are you derp clearing lock towning Hally, or are you accusing them? Cause that seems the tiniest fraction unclear
Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Sun Feb 27, 2022 7:11 pmI never scum read you.JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Sun Feb 27, 2022 7:06 pmWhy am I town now?Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Sun Feb 27, 2022 7:04 pm Why does Hally’s posts count as derp clears, while Jimnay’s does not?
I was asking Mac why he’s clearing Hally for reacting to Alison’s lies, but not you.
Of course, nobody should be cleared off of that, as mafia isn’t going to let it be known that it is a lie.
Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Sun Feb 27, 2022 7:14 pmYour yammering makes zero sense to me. Sorryboutit.MacDougall wrote: ↑Sun Feb 27, 2022 7:11 pmNo you are sidelining hot takes that feel like cheerleading Jay in a really scummy way and even Jay noticed it.Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Sun Feb 27, 2022 7:08 pm What is my reaction and why is it bad? Is this you trying to make me look bad after a red flip or something?
This got bizarre so fast. I bet it’s pretty hilarious in specchat in some way or another.
You’re accusing Hally and clearing Hally on breathing in and out.
Or I just don’t get it.
And I believe that if there’s scum between j/hally, it’s likelier to be hally.
Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Sun Feb 27, 2022 7:17 pm Wild as it seems, Mac still could be town.
Oh wow, how amazing and interesting!
I will return later. Game game game
Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Sun Feb 27, 2022 7:18 pm Obligatory
What if Mac/Jay are both town and the real scums are like Hally and/or Nook or something?
Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Sun Feb 27, 2022 7:32 pmI think I’ve rarely been more obvious town in my entire mafia career. But maybe you’d have to be me to know that.MacDougall wrote: ↑Sun Feb 27, 2022 7:31 pm But I guess if I was to give you a snap answer I would say it'd be Dyslexicon first and foremost and then I'd need to probably re-read some stuff.
Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Sun Feb 27, 2022 7:33 pmLolllllllMacDougall wrote: ↑Sun Feb 27, 2022 7:31 pmDo we have any reason to believe he's simply not the BP he claims?
Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Mon Feb 28, 2022 6:48 am Random reflections without having read carefully:
Is Mac really this lost and confused? Are you lost and confused, Mac?
Maybe it's a mistake to take Wilgy out of the PoE.
@JaggedJimmyJay Why are you struggling so to read me? Can I help you?
I'm pretty sure I'm over my Hally suspicion. They did a towny.
Also, I want to read this game more carefully and be more present with it. I've been constantly in a state of dissociation when engaging with the game, which isn't as comfortable as I want it to be. When I eventually get to it, I might have less random thoughts.
Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Mon Feb 28, 2022 6:09 pmA while ago actually.
When you said the thing about it being a disaster if me/Mac were both town, tipped it back for me.
Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Mon Feb 28, 2022 6:25 pmFlip a mafia =p
It's complicated.
It's bad timing now, cause I've been out all day and about to go to sleep.
I'm sure you have some world view post or something like that, cause that may help.
Or just make it easier again.
I'm going easy route you/c4/jay town, I guess.
I could be there on Mac if you all agree-ish.
Not sure. His sorry for existing attitude was maybe towny for him. If real lol. But sure.
So.
From Mac
Spoiler: show
MacDougall wrote: ↑Thu Feb 24, 2022 8:49 pmbro you 100% hate playing wolf we talked about this several times in the GoCDyslexicon wrote: ↑Thu Feb 24, 2022 8:48 pmAll of them lolAlison wrote: ↑Thu Feb 24, 2022 8:34 pm1) Dizzy is down.Hally wrote: ↑Thu Feb 24, 2022 7:20 pmit’s jarring, i just don’t think really think it’s AI
dizzy is more than capable of faking tone/vibe as a wolf so i believe that he’s just down regardless of alignment
2) Dizzy hates playing wolf.
3) Dizzy is more likely to be down if he is a wolf.
4) If Dizzy is down, he is more likely to be a wolf.
Which of these 4 statements is not true?
MacDougall wrote: ↑Thu Feb 24, 2022 8:56 pmI didn't even get the impression you were down this whole thing is weirdDyslexicon wrote: ↑Thu Feb 24, 2022 8:54 pm @Alison Why all this interest in my apparent down-ness via Hally. If you think it should result in an x or y read from Hally, why don't you have that read on me yourself?
MacDougall wrote: ↑Thu Feb 24, 2022 9:04 pmam I? damn.Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Thu Feb 24, 2022 9:03 pmYou're the easiest push to make though.MacDougall wrote: ↑Thu Feb 24, 2022 9:00 pmI was implying you would be the easiest push to be making because you had been the scummiest slot yet nobody was which is a fact I felt would benefit the town to consider.
Spoiler: show
MacDougall wrote: ↑Thu Feb 24, 2022 9:10 pmI can explain.Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Thu Feb 24, 2022 9:06 pm Game felt so much scummier when Mac arrived, and not just Mac lol. Wtf is that all about
I arrived to the game with Nanook and Jay already voting me. I hadn't got into the hub yet so I legit figured I was mafia with Nanook and said as much cuz funny wifom. Then I saw my actual rolecard and then I decided to play wolfy on purpose to reaction test people and Hally failed it.
MacDougall wrote: ↑Thu Feb 24, 2022 9:11 pmcleared up well thanks for asking
MacDougall wrote: ↑Thu Feb 24, 2022 9:13 pmthis seems like a reason to worry about meDyslexicon wrote: ↑Thu Feb 24, 2022 9:12 pm I don't really worry much about Mac. He's a lousy wolf that often wins.
MacDougall wrote: ↑Thu Feb 24, 2022 9:14 pmfucking foiledDyslexicon wrote: ↑Thu Feb 24, 2022 9:13 pmI fixed your version of this.MacDougall wrote: ↑Thu Feb 24, 2022 9:12 pm I have an idea.
All of you should blindly sheep me D1. Then if the person I vote flips GREEN you lock me as inno child. If the person I vote flips RED you policy me. How does that sound?
MacDougall wrote: ↑Thu Feb 24, 2022 9:16 pmyou dizzy MarmotJaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Thu Feb 24, 2022 9:14 pm I would love to hear everyone's town reads. It would be peachy keen. The more the better.![]()
axe c4
nanook hally Alison
wilgy
MacDougall wrote: ↑Thu Feb 24, 2022 9:16 pmway to pocket me broDyslexicon wrote: ↑Thu Feb 24, 2022 9:14 pm Mac is probably town tbh
Add Hally, c4, Marmot and Radish. YES RADISH
Towncoreville wow
MacDougall wrote: ↑Thu Feb 24, 2022 9:28 pmhow can this be true when @Dyslexicon is the beloved princess?
MacDougall wrote: ↑Thu Feb 24, 2022 9:34 pmfwiw I usually find wolves do this more than town lolDyslexicon wrote: ↑Thu Feb 24, 2022 9:33 pm Did anyone notice that I did the incredibly fool proof town tell of posting way past when I said I was going to sleep?
As if I wasn't town read enough already!
MacDougall wrote: ↑Thu Feb 24, 2022 9:35 pmalmost definitely rhe latterDyslexicon wrote: ↑Thu Feb 24, 2022 9:34 pmYeah, can't tell if wack or just Jimmay being SO SERIOUS MAFIA PLAYERc4e5g3d5 wrote: ↑Thu Feb 24, 2022 9:33 pmThis is also a little wackJaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Thu Feb 24, 2022 9:31 pm I'm treating Nanook and Alison as claim and counterclaim.
MacDougall wrote: ↑Sat Feb 26, 2022 12:19 amit's 9 fucking posts, why is the burden of proof on me? people are >rand town by default so the burden of proof is not on me.Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Fri Feb 25, 2022 6:46 pmHow about you explain how it's towny?MacDougall wrote: ↑Fri Feb 25, 2022 6:44 pmI read his iso and it was townie... explain how it wasn't? first 9 posts.
MacDougall wrote: ↑Sat Feb 26, 2022 12:38 ammy thing right now is that I believe that Alison, Dizzy, Jay, Marmot and you are all town more than I think Axe is town but you guys are so fascinated with my Axe read and also stir crazy that you're derping yourselves senseless.
MacDougall wrote: ↑Sat Feb 26, 2022 6:40 amnupDyslexicon wrote: ↑Sat Feb 26, 2022 6:23 amYes, it is. You were the one with a (counter) opinion.MacDougall wrote: ↑Sat Feb 26, 2022 12:19 amit's 9 fucking posts, why is the burden of proof on me? people are >rand town by default so the burden of proof is not on me.
MacDougall wrote: ↑Sat Feb 26, 2022 6:40 amso you disagree somewhat or agree partially?Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Sat Feb 26, 2022 6:38 amI don't disagree entirely with this.NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Sat Feb 26, 2022 1:23 amI mean, he would unvote to appease Hally as either alignment, I don't think it's ADDITIONALLY indicative. The fact that he didn't offer to unvote IS wolfy though, I think normally as town he's like yeah, I don't mind... But let's just see if other people are ok with it.
Here he was like YEAH IM FINE WITH IT
OH, other people aren't... Ok.
MacDougall wrote: ↑Sat Feb 26, 2022 6:41 amyour face is wrongDyslexicon wrote: ↑Sat Feb 26, 2022 6:40 amYour math is wrong.JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Sat Feb 26, 2022 1:25 amThere was a time in my life when I would have cared more. I think we're far enough along in this Day 1 though that it's not a crazy notion. We've used 80% of the time allotted.
MacDougall wrote: ↑Sat Feb 26, 2022 7:04 amwell nobody has said shit about it except you and c4 hasn't posted so not sure why you're framing this like I'm bad for trying something new
MacDougall wrote: ↑Sat Feb 26, 2022 7:46 amwell your shit only leads to a dead town soDyslexicon wrote: ↑Sat Feb 26, 2022 7:24 amYou might be bad for doing things that won't lead anywhere. Cause your shit doesn't lead anywhere when you are mafia. I believe it's the number one difference between your wolf and town game.MacDougall wrote: ↑Sat Feb 26, 2022 7:04 amwell nobody has said shit about it except you and c4 hasn't posted so not sure why you're framing this like I'm bad for trying something new
c4 is pretty consensus town read.
Your particular brand of pouting isn't inspiring either.
Just my opinion man
MacDougall wrote: ↑Sat Feb 26, 2022 8:10 amno burn intended I am just trying to make you recognise the hypocrisy of claiming my play "leads nowhere" when your current play is to yolo a vote onto a town MacDyslexicon wrote: ↑Sat Feb 26, 2022 7:49 amOh wow burnMacDougall wrote: ↑Sat Feb 26, 2022 7:46 amwell your shit only leads to a dead town soDyslexicon wrote: ↑Sat Feb 26, 2022 7:24 amYou might be bad for doing things that won't lead anywhere. Cause your shit doesn't lead anywhere when you are mafia. I believe it's the number one difference between your wolf and town game.MacDougall wrote: ↑Sat Feb 26, 2022 7:04 amwell nobody has said shit about it except you and c4 hasn't posted so not sure why you're framing this like I'm bad for trying something new
c4 is pretty consensus town read.
Your particular brand of pouting isn't inspiring either.
Just my opinion man
MacDougall wrote: ↑Sun Feb 27, 2022 6:46 pmthat isn't helping my point right nowDyslexicon wrote: ↑Sun Feb 27, 2022 6:45 pmI played maybe the biggest part, and I could tell it was a mistake as it was happening hehMacDougall wrote: ↑Sun Feb 27, 2022 6:43 pm Funny you say that Jay because I don't believe that either of you would view the day as having played out the way that it did and think I had anything to do with it, do you really think that Alison goes over day 1 without the mafia playing a significant role in her demise? I don't.
MacDougall wrote: ↑Sun Feb 27, 2022 6:56 pmThese types of comments are why good chops on good players never go through.Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Sun Feb 27, 2022 6:55 pm Mac. You’re open wolfing worse than me, regardless of your alignment. Sads.
MacDougall wrote: ↑Sun Feb 27, 2022 7:01 pmNah pass, Hally is obvious town from derp clearing herself after Alison fake claimed mafia.Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Sun Feb 27, 2022 6:58 pmI’m voting Hally now.MacDougall wrote: ↑Sun Feb 27, 2022 6:56 pmThese types of comments are why good chops on good players never go through.Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Sun Feb 27, 2022 6:55 pm Mac. You’re open wolfing worse than me, regardless of your alignment. Sads.
You could join.
MacDougall wrote: ↑Sun Feb 27, 2022 7:04 pm In the triangle of Dyslexicon, Hally and Jay there are always two mafia.
MacDougall wrote: ↑Sun Feb 27, 2022 7:06 pmWhatever my point stands that he'd never outright remove Hally from the equation the way that he did without agenda. And tbh his reaction today has been far worse than any reason I had prior (Hally's and Dyslexicon's just as bad).NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Sun Feb 27, 2022 7:05 pmFwiw I've seen him do the chart things during d1 pre flipMacDougall wrote: ↑Sun Feb 27, 2022 7:03 pmThat is not you're bread and butter you are openly lying. You as a rule completely abstain from doing association reads until a red flip. You are so full of shit lol.JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Sun Feb 27, 2022 7:02 pmYou are describing my bread and butter and saying "I don't do that". Wild.MacDougall wrote: ↑Sun Feb 27, 2022 6:59 pm Firstly, it's two posts Jay. And it demonstrates that you are reading Hally with an agenda. Whether it's to simply pocket her or whether it's because you're teammates, either way you're mafia because of it. A Jay who has Hally in their actual POE of three never rules her out of the POE out of hand because of perceived disassociation reads. You are not that guy. And also one of the other two is now a dead town so her being disassociated to Alison is actually now completely irrelevant.
Those two posts are separated by plenty of game thread. If you want to investigate my dealings with hally in good faith, you're going to have to open the ISO and actually look for the posts. You're omitting an absolute shitload, and you definitely know that already. Just incredible bullshit.
MacDougall wrote: ↑Sun Feb 27, 2022 7:11 pmNo you are sidelining hot takes that feel like cheerleading Jay in a really scummy way and even Jay noticed it.Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Sun Feb 27, 2022 7:08 pm What is my reaction and why is it bad? Is this you trying to make me look bad after a red flip or something?
This got bizarre so fast. I bet it’s pretty hilarious in specchat in some way or another.
MacDougall wrote: ↑Sun Feb 27, 2022 7:16 pmYou also exaggerate what is happening for some reason. MR and Nanook have had no issues following my train of thought at all. Also you are acting like me changing up me reads and behaving in a weathervaney way is unexpected.Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Sun Feb 27, 2022 7:14 pmYour yammering makes zero sense to me. Sorryboutit.MacDougall wrote: ↑Sun Feb 27, 2022 7:11 pmNo you are sidelining hot takes that feel like cheerleading Jay in a really scummy way and even Jay noticed it.Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Sun Feb 27, 2022 7:08 pm What is my reaction and why is it bad? Is this you trying to make me look bad after a red flip or something?
This got bizarre so fast. I bet it’s pretty hilarious in specchat in some way or another.
You’re accusing Hally and clearing Hally on breathing in and out.
Or I just don’t get it.
And I believe that if there’s scum between j/hally, it’s likelier to be hally.
MacDougall wrote: ↑Sun Feb 27, 2022 7:31 pm But I guess if I was to give you a snap answer I would say it'd be Dyslexicon first and foremost and then I'd need to probably re-read some stuff.
MacDougall wrote: ↑Sun Feb 27, 2022 7:36 pm I have no real reason to townread anybody in this game honestly. If I went to level one and just gave Hally, Jay and Dyslexicon the townreads they so desperately crave I'm still left with a POE that's way too broad.
And then I'm left to wonder why Marmot died n1 over either Jay or Hally and I am just back here again.
MacDougall wrote: ↑Mon Feb 28, 2022 5:26 pmcan dizzy be mafia with not me cuz that guy is scummy as fekNotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Mon Feb 28, 2022 3:42 pm I think this game is actually really easy.
There's a hard difference check between Nanook and Mac.
There is a difference check between Dizzy and MR.
If Mac is mafia, it's probably with Dizzy.
Conclusion
First off, sorry for the massive spoilers. I realize most of those posts on their own aren't "necessary". However, I think there's sometimes insight to be gleaned just from sheer volume. In a game with only two mafia, such extensive interactions as these are almost at face value something I view with an eyebrow cocked. Mac himself alluded to the objective of the two teammates to dissociate early and often. There are isolated moments at the local/micro level that I think suggest dissociation (e.g. the two actually annoying each other; I highlighted one example in Dizzy's posts). Globally/macro I might have a little concern about the constancy of suspicion without it leading anywhere serious. Light green.
- by JaggedJimmyJay
- Tue Mar 01, 2022 1:04 am
- Forum: Previous Heists
- Topic: Highway Heist (MAFIA WIN)
- Replies: 3198
- Views: 53485
Re: Highway Heist (Day 2)
Wilgy and NAA
From Wilgy
From NAA
Conclusion
Another one much like Dizzy and Nanook with Wilgy. NAA's town read on Wilgy has been stated as confidently as either of theirs has, but it might not have been fielded in dialogue as often. By the same boring logic, they can technically fit even if this doesn't indicate anything especially problematic. If I stretch I might say the one highlighted Wilgy post looks good to separate them, but that's a risky take.
Also, given that Dizzy, Nanook, NAA, and to a lesser extent Alison all had this view of Wilgy, that might alleviate the "hard shield teammate" theory slightly for all three of them. They can't all be doing it.
From Wilgy
Spoiler: show
DrWilgy wrote: ↑Fri Feb 25, 2022 11:20 amIf it's any consolation, I think you are town based on your behavior towards my slot.NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Fri Feb 25, 2022 10:22 amI don't need to play as scum because people don't understand my town meta, and generally go out of their way to not interact with me.Marmot wrote: ↑Fri Feb 25, 2022 2:07 amI do think NAA has track record of sheeping a player in the game who has a lot of threadclout or towncred.Alison wrote: ↑Fri Feb 25, 2022 2:03 am1) No.
2) These are the games I've had with v!NAA.
- Basic Mafia (V/V), where I explicitly asked to be sheeped because I had a very confident read. He did not do this.
- Bonk! Mafia (V/M), where I replaced into an outed scum slot and got instantly voted out by everyone.
- Lost in Space Mafia (V/M), where he correctly suspected me for voting a villager at D1 and buried me D2.
- GOC (V/V), where he received a role that gave him rewards if he faked and held a cop check; he faked a red check on me, and a member of the mafia opportunistically used this chance to dayvig me.
As you can see, he doesn't have a track record of sheeping me when he is town, regardless of my alignment. This is why I was skeptical of his decision to do so this game, with very little reason.
He openly steeped JJJ in Fleabag
He openly steeped me in Team Fortress
I don't recall what his scum meta is like though
From NAA
Spoiler: show
NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Fri Feb 25, 2022 11:33 amDrWilgy wrote: ↑Fri Feb 25, 2022 11:20 amIf it's any consolation, I think you are town based on your behavior towards my slot.NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Fri Feb 25, 2022 10:22 amI don't need to play as scum because people don't understand my town meta, and generally go out of their way to not interact with me.Marmot wrote: ↑Fri Feb 25, 2022 2:07 amI do think NAA has track record of sheeping a player in the game who has a lot of threadclout or towncred.Alison wrote: ↑Fri Feb 25, 2022 2:03 am1) No.
2) These are the games I've had with v!NAA.
- Basic Mafia (V/V), where I explicitly asked to be sheeped because I had a very confident read. He did not do this.
- Bonk! Mafia (V/M), where I replaced into an outed scum slot and got instantly voted out by everyone.
- Lost in Space Mafia (V/M), where he correctly suspected me for voting a villager at D1 and buried me D2.
- GOC (V/V), where he received a role that gave him rewards if he faked and held a cop check; he faked a red check on me, and a member of the mafia opportunistically used this chance to dayvig me.
As you can see, he doesn't have a track record of sheeping me when he is town, regardless of my alignment. This is why I was skeptical of his decision to do so this game, with very little reason.
He openly steeped JJJ in Fleabag
He openly steeped me in Team Fortress
I don't recall what his scum meta is like though![]()
Conclusion
Another one much like Dizzy and Nanook with Wilgy. NAA's town read on Wilgy has been stated as confidently as either of theirs has, but it might not have been fielded in dialogue as often. By the same boring logic, they can technically fit even if this doesn't indicate anything especially problematic. If I stretch I might say the one highlighted Wilgy post looks good to separate them, but that's a risky take.
Also, given that Dizzy, Nanook, NAA, and to a lesser extent Alison all had this view of Wilgy, that might alleviate the "hard shield teammate" theory slightly for all three of them. They can't all be doing it.
- by JaggedJimmyJay
- Tue Mar 01, 2022 12:59 am
- Forum: Previous Heists
- Topic: Highway Heist (MAFIA WIN)
- Replies: 3198
- Views: 53485
Re: Highway Heist (Day 2)
I very much appreciate your efforts.c4e5g3d5 wrote: ↑Tue Mar 01, 2022 12:57 amI had a slightly weaker version of what you hadJaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Tue Mar 01, 2022 12:56 amgot into the zone and forgot you were doing all MRs as I did that one, but no matter. four eyes are better than two, and you might have a different perspective
- by JaggedJimmyJay
- Tue Mar 01, 2022 12:56 am
- Forum: Previous Heists
- Topic: Highway Heist (MAFIA WIN)
- Replies: 3198
- Views: 53485
- by JaggedJimmyJay
- Tue Mar 01, 2022 12:55 am
- Forum: Previous Heists
- Topic: Highway Heist (MAFIA WIN)
- Replies: 3198
- Views: 53485
Re: Highway Heist (Day 2)
Wilgy and Nanook
From Wilgy
From Nanook
Conclusion
This is essentially a clone of Dizzy/Wilgy, with one low-leverage vote by Nanook on Wilgy early in the game added in. Nanook has a town read and otherwise hasn't really revisited the matter of Wilgy. Wilgy hasn't done anything with Nanook. Technically compatible.
From Wilgy
Spoiler: show
DrWilgy wrote: ↑Sat Feb 26, 2022 1:02 am I haven't played with c4 before.
And idk. They seem like they are quite alright with many a wagon. They were on MR, Nook and Alison. They are cool with anyone going over and persistently keeps people at 4. I think they are the only one who's been on all 3 potential yeets.
DrWilgy wrote: ↑Sat Feb 26, 2022 1:27 amNANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Sat Feb 26, 2022 1:25 am Hammers are BAD and ANTI TOWN because they ROB us of TIME and EVERYONE knows that TIME is way more valuable than FLIPS because TIME is how we circlejerk about how smart we all are SOLVE THE GAMESpoiler: showI like my quality shitposting time thank you very much!
DrWilgy wrote: ↑Sat Feb 26, 2022 1:28 amOHHHHHH YEAAAAAAAAHJaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Sat Feb 26, 2022 1:27 amHammers are GOOD and PRO-TOWN because they GRANT us FLIPS with LOCKED NIGHT PHASES when the host isn't HERE to GIVE the FLIP anyway I LOVE hammers HAMMER ME DADDYNANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Sat Feb 26, 2022 1:25 am Hammers are BAD and ANTI TOWN because they ROB us of TIME and EVERYONE knows that TIME is way more valuable than FLIPS because TIME is how we circlejerk about how smart we all are SOLVE THE GAME
From Nanook
Spoiler: show
NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Fri Feb 25, 2022 12:57 am [VOTE: DrWilgy] aubergine forgot to call it earlier
NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Fri Feb 25, 2022 2:20 pm [VOTE: alison] aubergine
I read his iso and im actually pretty confident wilgy is town
NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Fri Feb 25, 2022 2:21 pm Wilgy hally and mac are my confident town reads now
NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Fri Feb 25, 2022 7:31 pmHally mac dizzy wilgy tbd tbdJaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Fri Feb 25, 2022 7:22 pm Name 6 townies not including yourself. Get it right and you win the game. Anyone fancy a try?
NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Fri Feb 25, 2022 10:54 pm Largely because your votes to that point that I'd seen were a long held deeply meh vote on myself and a vote on wilgy, who I came to believe is town
So
Downgraded to a null read
If Alison goes over and flips red with you on her you can have a sweet sweet town read again
NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Sat Feb 26, 2022 1:07 amMmmff mmf your vows and tell your wife it's a townie gimmick or gtfo
NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Sat Feb 26, 2022 1:28 amThe only appropriate response tbhDrWilgy wrote: ↑Sat Feb 26, 2022 1:27 amNANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Sat Feb 26, 2022 1:25 am Hammers are BAD and ANTI TOWN because they ROB us of TIME and EVERYONE knows that TIME is way more valuable than FLIPS because TIME is how we circlejerk about how smart we all are SOLVE THE GAMESpoiler: showI like my quality shitposting time thank you very much!
NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Sat Feb 26, 2022 5:21 pmI think dizzy at least is likely town, and her other pushes that I've seen are some combo of me/mac/wilgy, so like...I think at most one mafia in those four and radishesNotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Sat Feb 26, 2022 5:20 pmThis is a valid reason to scum read, but I disagree with MR/dizzy being T/TNANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Sat Feb 26, 2022 5:18 pmWell I think she's been pushing mostly town soNotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Sat Feb 26, 2022 5:10 pm I would also potentially kill Nanook here, I don't believe he has a serious scum read on Alison.
NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Sun Feb 27, 2022 9:15 pmI read him correctly two games in a row so now I believe I can read him correctly every game
NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Sun Feb 27, 2022 10:35 pmI mean it's not giving up yeah its trying to set up for their continued success, playing as a team rather than selfishlyHally wrote: ↑Sun Feb 27, 2022 10:31 pmhas he done that before? seems kinda eh to give up on his team like that
Idk I'm townreading him so I don't think its *likely* I just don't see it as an outlandish thought
NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Mon Feb 28, 2022 9:02 pm Seems unlikely given that what I've said hasn't already
I think there's likely a mafia in this game that's sort of sliding by, that pool basically amounts to wilgy/radishes/c4, I dismissed wilgy because I still think he's town and I don't think radishes fits that well, leaving me with c4, someone that has generally escaped my notice. I do believe this game is a prime target for applying the vibe tell read, and c4 fails it harder than anyone else in the game for me, so. I do think there's probably one between radishes and c4 for vague and poorly defined gamestate reasons that I don't really have the willpower or desire to even attempt to expand on, but I kinda think c4 is more likely.
By nature it's difficult to really expound on or sell, and I didn't/don't expect it to convince anyone. Convincing people isn't really my strongsuit anyways. But, that's my read.
Conclusion
This is essentially a clone of Dizzy/Wilgy, with one low-leverage vote by Nanook on Wilgy early in the game added in. Nanook has a town read and otherwise hasn't really revisited the matter of Wilgy. Wilgy hasn't done anything with Nanook. Technically compatible.
- by JaggedJimmyJay
- Tue Mar 01, 2022 12:46 am
- Forum: Previous Heists
- Topic: Highway Heist (MAFIA WIN)
- Replies: 3198
- Views: 53485
Re: Highway Heist (Day 2)
Wilgy and MR
From Wilgy
From MR
Conclusion
I don't think these two are teamed. It really seems that way to me when MR gets to the task of essentially mocking Wilgy's initial hammer-based reads. MR also really worked himself into the space to [halfway] read Wilgy as mafia for something he granted was not alignment-indicative. Just doesn't look the part to me.
From Wilgy
Spoiler: show
DrWilgy wrote: ↑Fri Feb 25, 2022 12:20 amDo tell me your magical reason.Alison wrote: ↑Fri Feb 25, 2022 12:18 amI don't think he is
I re-read MR though and some stuff pings me (specifically the flat-sounding attempt to sound like an egoistical townie angry that people are assuming they're out of their scum range, and the repetition of "witty opening post" making for a kinda stilted entrance). So I [VOTE: Master Radishes] aubergine.
DrWilgy wrote: ↑Fri Feb 25, 2022 11:17 amBecause it adds perspective.
If MR is town, scum for some reason haven't done it yet. Either not present or afraid of the fall out.
Or he hasn't been hammered because their team is actively avoiding it.
DrWilgy wrote: ↑Fri Feb 25, 2022 1:26 pmI'm finding that the likely scenario, BUT I think it also is more so worth keeping in mind while we accrue more data on the people currently on MR.
If any of them specifically flip wolf, prior to us flipping MR, I'd say that just about clears MR. If MR flips Wolf, I'd say it just about clears everyone on the Wagon, with the exception that we think that there's a bussing teammate who just wasn't around to course correct.
DrWilgy wrote: ↑Sat Feb 26, 2022 1:02 am I haven't played with c4 before.
And idk. They seem like they are quite alright with many a wagon. They were on MR, Nook and Alison. They are cool with anyone going over and persistently keeps people at 4. I think they are the only one who's been on all 3 potential yeets.
From MR
Spoiler: show
Master Radishes wrote: ↑Fri Feb 25, 2022 2:00 pmMust say, I also found this weird. I never felt in danger of being hammered and I even resisted self voting for the meme because I figured it'd be a town more likely to hammer me, not a scum.
And then he doubled down on it which I guess is not really AI but still is a likely enough scum approach when called out on something.
I dont think I've ever seen scum Wilgz though.
Master Radishes wrote: ↑Fri Feb 25, 2022 2:11 pm If I put Wilgy at E-2 do you think he gets hammered?
Master Radishes wrote: ↑Fri Feb 25, 2022 2:15 pm Can't believe scum haven't taken the opportunity to hammer Wilgy.
Master Radishes wrote: ↑Sat Feb 26, 2022 2:17 pm Here is my advice on what to do. First, eliminate Alison so that I won't die today.
If Alison flips scum, then eliminate Mac. If Mac is town, then eliminate Dizzy and Wilgy, in that order.
If Alison flips town, then eliminate me. I will flip town, whereupon which you should eliminate NAA and Wilgy.
I have about a 60% confidence that this solve wins the game. This may not seem like a lot of confidence, but it's actually quite a lot if you think about what I am proposing.
Master Radishes wrote: ↑Sat Feb 26, 2022 3:43 pm What if the crowd of Jay, Hally, Dizzy, C4, Marmot, and I all rank Alison, NAA, Mac in preferred order and then find the average score to decide who dies.
(In this plan Wilgy and NAA are NPCs.)
Master Radishes wrote: ↑Sat Feb 26, 2022 3:52 pm Alison > NAA > Mac > Nook
Not sure I'm ready for a Wilgy yeet at this stage.
Conclusion
I don't think these two are teamed. It really seems that way to me when MR gets to the task of essentially mocking Wilgy's initial hammer-based reads. MR also really worked himself into the space to [halfway] read Wilgy as mafia for something he granted was not alignment-indicative. Just doesn't look the part to me.
- by JaggedJimmyJay
- Tue Mar 01, 2022 12:38 am
- Forum: Previous Heists
- Topic: Highway Heist (MAFIA WIN)
- Replies: 3198
- Views: 53485
Re: Highway Heist (Day 2)
Wilgy and Mac
From Wilgy
From Mac
Conclusion
Mac has been in an anti-Wilgy stance for essentially the entire game so far. It occurs to me that I might need to consider that [alone] more closely, because I know those two have been mafia together before quite a lot. So Mac's experience is extensive in that arena. Anyway with respect to their being teamed here... I doubt it. It's kinda like Mac/c4 was in that the animosity is visible, but in this case I think it's more energized, constant, and as seen from one of Wilgy's highlighted posts, not altogether anticipated (if I'm not interpreting it wrongly).
From Wilgy
From Mac
Spoiler: show
MacDougall wrote: ↑Thu Feb 24, 2022 9:16 pmyou dizzy MarmotJaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Thu Feb 24, 2022 9:14 pm I would love to hear everyone's town reads. It would be peachy keen. The more the better.![]()
axe c4
nanook hally Alison
wilgy
MacDougall wrote: ↑Thu Feb 24, 2022 9:23 pmyeh all this is pretty much things I thinkJaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Thu Feb 24, 2022 9:22 pm Nanook is off to perhaps the worst start I have ever seen from him (with respect to alignment, not "quality").
Wilgy is a suspect by default.
Hally and Alison are a weird binary-exclusive case that could stand in for either of the names above.
MacDougall wrote: ↑Sat Feb 26, 2022 12:30 amcool so let's kill wilgyHally wrote: ↑Sat Feb 26, 2022 12:29 amtrash pandas - he was a villager and gimmicked the whole game so idc about it
coffia - he was wolf and seemed sorta similar to here but not exactly
philo maf 2 - he was a villager and gimmicked D1 but then when he dropped the gimmick he was a lot more villagery than here
molly maguires - was a villager and way more villagery than here
MacDougall wrote: ↑Sun Feb 27, 2022 6:56 pm I am glad we're in a game with the likes of Wilgy, MR, NAA and Nook cuz I'm confident they're at least all allergic to your bs.
MacDougall wrote: ↑Sun Feb 27, 2022 7:10 pmWell no I just have zero recollection of him ever doing that and I am pretty confident that he doesn't believe that day 1 interactions are very valid.
Going back to the original point. Try to read this post with a clear head.
Jay said that he had you, Alison and NAA in his day 1 POE, of players that have made posts. He said you can't be with the other two so he ruled you out. Implying that anti-associations with those players are enough to rule you out. But then he added back in two players that were low posting in Wilgy and Marmot to his POE and didn't add you back in. Read this carefully. If those two can be POE, why can't you be POE? It doesn't make sense. His read on you has agenda.
MacDougall wrote: ↑Sun Feb 27, 2022 7:29 pmCan be anyone really can't it.
That said. I have some problems with the day 1 gamestate that have caused me to become confirmation biased into this world and your reactions to me voicing it being as aggressive as they were forced me to go back and dig up arguments I didn't really have specifically planned out prior to voicing the read.
My main issue stems from the idea that Alison can go over without a wolf or wolves having good thread control. Alison going over, to me, rules out teams of two inside of MR/Wilgy/NAA/Nanook. It can be that any of them can go with Jay, or yourself but worlds of two containing them should not be able to create a gamestate so malignant that Alison dies d1 (who it's important to note, I was townreading so I don't feel like she was a reasonable chop to make for strong town without being persuaded or at least influenced/humoured by an equally strong wolf). This, coupled with the fact that I was shunted down into the role of town (yes town) moron of the day, again heavily implies the existence of one or two highly influential mafia.
Can a mafia team of two say something like MR/Wilgy just coast while the town captains just work themselves into killing a townie looking Alison, even while MacDougall, who is probably the best Alison read here, is saying she is town? Of course all things is possible in the eyes of the lord. But as I find myself explaining a lot, mafia is a game of probability analysis and I find it more plausible that this would not be the case and that in fact the gamestate was being influenced to be malignant in a more direct manner.
My analysis indicates that one of you are near sure to be mafia now with Marmot and Alison both dead and town.
It is either that, or you guys are playing really badly. Like no offense, but that's the situation. Because I am town. I'll readily admit I'm also playing pretty badly though so you're not alone. But if you guys are town together then yeah you guys are having proper clangers.
MacDougall wrote: ↑Sun Feb 27, 2022 9:07 pmwhat if it's just nanook and wilgy after all?JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Sun Feb 27, 2022 9:07 pm To me this game feels neither like easy mode nor hard mode. Middle mode is the vibe which has me in the realms of MR and Dizzy, for example.
MacDougall wrote: ↑Sun Feb 27, 2022 9:15 pmif I rule of three this post I'd say radishes/wilgy are the mafia, there are other posts in his iso that indicate this also namely that he entered late to the game and spent most of his time limply pushing MR which is probably just antispew
MacDougall wrote: ↑Sun Feb 27, 2022 9:17 pmWilgy literally poop posted in the middle of my hally/jay fight and that was 2 hours ago and he has made zero other posts
MacDougall wrote: ↑Sun Feb 27, 2022 9:18 pmI just read his ISO and it is wall to wall awful and scummy and makes no sense.
MacDougall wrote: ↑Sun Feb 27, 2022 9:23 pmI don't agree with any of them. Wilgy is squarely in his scum meta, and I am pretty good at reading Wilgy.
MacDougall wrote: ↑Sun Feb 27, 2022 9:25 pmHis aura of not caring that much?JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Sun Feb 27, 2022 9:22 pm I don’t town read Wilgy’s posts, but I might town read Wilgy’s aura. If that makes sense.
GaMe StAtE rEaD
It’s not confident at all, but I want to treat it that way for the moment
That might be so but town Wilgy that doesn't care would automatically assume that you and I are mafia. He has no mentioned you once and voted me most of day 1 without me even being in his POE or vocalising a single scumread on me.
MacDougall wrote: ↑Sun Feb 27, 2022 9:29 pmWilgy hit the thread way late and got to work pushing MR for awful reasons and then later on dropped that read in favour of pushing C4 for awful reasons. Meanwhile he spent most of the time voting me without talking about me.
I'd say his teammate is likely MR. People just give Wilgy twtbw townreads a lot.
MacDougall wrote: ↑Sun Feb 27, 2022 9:31 pm why is he not the best option? if we miss on someone else we're just gonna end up default chopping wilgy at a more perilous moment anyway
MacDougall wrote: ↑Sun Feb 27, 2022 10:04 pm so you're coming out of this with a wolf read on MR and townread on wilgy? lol ok
MacDougall wrote: ↑Sun Feb 27, 2022 10:06 pm I just think it's pretty likely that wilgy hit the thread immediately in antispew tbh
Conclusion
Mac has been in an anti-Wilgy stance for essentially the entire game so far. It occurs to me that I might need to consider that [alone] more closely, because I know those two have been mafia together before quite a lot. So Mac's experience is extensive in that arena. Anyway with respect to their being teamed here... I doubt it. It's kinda like Mac/c4 was in that the animosity is visible, but in this case I think it's more energized, constant, and as seen from one of Wilgy's highlighted posts, not altogether anticipated (if I'm not interpreting it wrongly).
- by JaggedJimmyJay
- Tue Mar 01, 2022 12:23 am
- Forum: Previous Heists
- Topic: Highway Heist (MAFIA WIN)
- Replies: 3198
- Views: 53485
Re: Highway Heist (Day 2)
Wilgy and Dizzy
From Wilgy
From Dizzy
Conclusion
I have a hard time separating them. Nothing here stands out as alarming to me, but theoretically they fit together well enough. The only thing there is to talk about it Dizzy's town read on Wilgy, and that just sort of exists.
From Wilgy
Spoiler: show
DrWilgy wrote: ↑Fri Feb 25, 2022 11:55 amWhat?Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Fri Feb 25, 2022 11:34 amUh. So you expect scum to openly hammer MR of he’s town? Seems dumb, to be frank. What if one or two are already on him?DrWilgy wrote: ↑Fri Feb 25, 2022 11:17 amBecause it adds perspective.
If MR is town, scum for some reason haven't done it yet. Either not present or afraid of the fall out.
Or he hasn't been hammered because their team is actively avoiding it.
Why is it either or. His wagon is pretty meh in any case. There’s plenty of time left in the day. Nobody expects a sudden hammer.
I don’t get and actually don’t buy that this is something you’re actually thinking about in this manner.
If it's a town wagon, us being in a hammer state is quite literally a free push towards their win con.
From Dizzy
Spoiler: show
Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Fri Feb 25, 2022 5:50 amOr maybe he's scummy adk
Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Fri Feb 25, 2022 11:34 amUh. So you expect scum to openly hammer MR of he’s town? Seems dumb, to be frank. What if one or two are already on him?DrWilgy wrote: ↑Fri Feb 25, 2022 11:17 amBecause it adds perspective.
If MR is town, scum for some reason haven't done it yet. Either not present or afraid of the fall out.
Or he hasn't been hammered because their team is actively avoiding it.
Why is it either or. His wagon is pretty meh in any case. There’s plenty of time left in the day. Nobody expects a sudden hammer.
I don’t get and actually don’t buy that this is something you’re actually thinking about in this manner.
Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Fri Feb 25, 2022 12:13 pmGurlDrWilgy wrote: ↑Fri Feb 25, 2022 11:55 amWhat?Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Fri Feb 25, 2022 11:34 amUh. So you expect scum to openly hammer MR of he’s town? Seems dumb, to be frank. What if one or two are already on him?DrWilgy wrote: ↑Fri Feb 25, 2022 11:17 amBecause it adds perspective.
If MR is town, scum for some reason haven't done it yet. Either not present or afraid of the fall out.
Or he hasn't been hammered because their team is actively avoiding it.
Why is it either or. His wagon is pretty meh in any case. There’s plenty of time left in the day. Nobody expects a sudden hammer.
I don’t get and actually don’t buy that this is something you’re actually thinking about in this manner.
If it's a town wagon, us being in a hammer state is quite literally a free push towards their win con.
Ok
Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Fri Feb 25, 2022 6:28 pmIf MR is red, Mac is probably more likely wolf lol. But MR is town anyways so waheveh
Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Fri Feb 25, 2022 6:30 pmI thought the same thing, and this is the Marmot analysis I subscribed to. Thank you.Marmot wrote: ↑Fri Feb 25, 2022 1:38 pmThe fact that Wilgy says the "team" could be actively avoiding it when a wolf MR could only have one teammate is actually a little townie imo, because I think scum!Wilgy would be more aware of the fact that there could only be one teammate which is not much of a team.
Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Fri Feb 25, 2022 6:41 pmThis is like super towny for Wilgy for me. Wilgy says this and other stuff he's said by now as town.
Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Fri Feb 25, 2022 6:49 pmWilgy is town.JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Fri Feb 25, 2022 5:18 pm Town reads
c4e5g3d5
Hally
MacDougall
Marmot
There's some dissonance here, but gun to head town
Dyslexicon
Master Radishes
Not town reads
Alison
DrWilgy
Nanook
NAA
At 9 vs. 2, an ordinary set of roles would call for a POE pool of 5 players (2 mafia + 3 mischops). The arrangement of this game's matrix provides the likelihood (certainty?) of a mischop being lost to an extra mafia kill or beloved princess, so reduce the POE to 4. We'd then need 6 town reads to square the game away, which for the moment does seem like a genuine challenge. I have a theoretical POE built above, but I would like to be more confident about it than I am.
What's the dissonance with me?
Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Fri Feb 25, 2022 6:52 pm@Hally I don't think Wilgy ever cares about wanting to read me correctly as scum or asks around. He usually slaps a scum read on me or just doesn't care at all. You could say "But pretending", but nah. I just think he's town and I've decided. His thoughts are weird, but that is not uncommon.Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Fri Feb 25, 2022 6:41 pmThis is like super towny for Wilgy for me. Wilgy says this and other stuff he's said by now as town.
Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Fri Feb 25, 2022 6:54 pmIt is that, and I just feel it.
I have more success reading town from micro tells (one off posts)
But not a lot of success reading scum from micro tells (cause town says weird and scummy shit or stuff that is insincere all the time)
Town read micro and scum read macro or something.
This is a rant that's not really relevant, but just something I thought about today.
Anyway, I still think Wilgy is town so sue me.
Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Fri Feb 25, 2022 6:55 pm Town:
Marmot
c4
Wilgy
Hally
MR
Everyone else should get townier if they are town.
Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Fri Feb 25, 2022 7:08 pm I get that my Wilgy read seems thin and it might be thin too. But I'm stubborn, and I actually do feel like it's correct so
Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Fri Feb 25, 2022 7:25 pmI kind of feel the opposite lol. I feel like Wilgy can be read over time. Not sure about NAA and he tends to be chopped or considered for chopping even if he's obvtown so.Hally wrote: ↑Fri Feb 25, 2022 7:23 pmi’m just not sure i actually want to kill alison D1 because if she’s a villager i think she can clear herself over time, whereas i find it less likely NAA or wilgy would if vDyslexicon wrote: ↑Fri Feb 25, 2022 7:19 pmLast time you listed suspects or who you wanted to vote, you didn't include Alison, pretty sure. And your response here was pretty much a joke. It was just weird. Are you afraid of being wrong or are you an alien shapeshifter.
But still never mind
but i do think she’s a wolf and i may end up just voting her idk
But bottom line, I just think Alison is the most likely mafia so that's where I'm voting. I feel that's a pretty sound strategy lol
Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Fri Feb 25, 2022 7:31 pmI'll sheep your Jimmay read if you sheep my Wilgy and Radish reads. You won't regret it. BOX THEM INHally wrote: ↑Fri Feb 25, 2022 7:28 pmc4JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Fri Feb 25, 2022 7:22 pm Name 6 townies not including yourself. Get it right and you win the game. Anyone fancy a try?
marmot
dizzy
you
honestly not sure who else, but maybe radishy because he’s my mason
Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Sat Feb 26, 2022 6:39 amI mean, it says clearly that it's 6. Everyone knows that it's 6. I don't see why anyone would think it's 5, including you tbh lol
Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Sat Feb 26, 2022 6:52 amI'm also unenthused by Mac.Alison wrote: ↑Sat Feb 26, 2022 4:36 am I have just eaten a pot of Samyang noodles. My sinuses are clear and my brain is tired. I have read up.
- Mac's re-entrance into the thread does not spark joy. He appears to be generating chaos for the sake of it when I think he would approach the gamestate in a more orderly fashion if his reads were as he claims they were. Specifically, if he townreads me and sees me in danger of receiving a guillotine to the neck, I believe he would not be doing things like, eg. "voting c4 for science". I'm scratching my head why he (presumably) townreads me over the "rock apes" mindmeld. Surely I'd be frustrated at having a read confidence misrepped as either alignment.
- I still do not want to vote Mac off today. My reasoning remains the same.
- I have seen NAA's argument that JJJ is most likely to be the scum voting me. I definitely think I am being pushed by scum. Radish and Dizzy are more likely than JJJ, though. I tend to think that JJJ is the kind of townie that ramps up the townieness over time. If he is town, he will show that townieness in a brilliant dazzle as time goes on until it is undeniable to everyone and he becomes universally townread. If it is later in the game and he still hasn't ramped up, then maybe scrutinize him then. I have other leads to pursue in the meantime.
- I think Wilgy is town now. Gut read. Believe it or don't.
- Nanook takes Wilgy's place of suspicion in the POE for trying to hammer me. I had Wilgy paired with Axe specifically because Axe seemed willing to sheep my push on anyone but him, but I don't think Nanook and Axe read as strongly paired. They could be partners, it's not out of the question, but it's not an association I think is significantly more likely than Nanook + other person or Axe + other person. I think in this updated solve I'd throw Nanook in as a wild card replacement of one of Radish/Mac if I'm wrong on them. Radish/Mac/Dizzy/Nanook are floating around in some kind of scummy stew. I think there's two mafia in there and the most likely exact pair is Radish/Mac but I wouldn't be shocked to see any of the others in one of the slots. Axe is less scummy than the four of them especially given his hard Alison siding and the fact that the person I partnered him with now reads as town to me. He is 5th in the POE.
Good night.
I also think Wilgy is town.
Problem is, your solve just seems weak and bad to me. I took issue with your reasons for scum reading MR, because they just seem like made up bs, as I said, prescribing tons meaning into a simple joke. You never addressed this, and I would like you to. Your tag-on that I'm scum for "not doing anything" is bad as well. I have certainly done a lot. I have 5 town reads (that might change lol) and I am straight up accusing you for specific reasons. Me "doing anything" is not even a reliable way to read me. However, I'm not one to get up in your face and "open wolf" or whatever you think I would be doing here as wolf. I don't know. Maybe you're omgusing a bit or whatever, but I find your read on both me and MR particularly weak at a level I don't expect from you as town. Even if you are town and MR is mafia, I find your MR read weak.
So that just makes it hard to believe that you have such confidence in this.
Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Sat Feb 26, 2022 6:58 am @Alison Of you town read Wilgy, I expect you to describe meaning to me trying to town clear them when Hally and Jimmay were voting Wilgy. Other people were able to. Unless you’re just not paying attention. My biggest issue, again, is your solve doesn’t have substance or the substance is weak/bad like in the case of MR
Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Sat Feb 26, 2022 7:29 amI should add that my reads aren't really that different to yours tbh.Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Sat Feb 26, 2022 6:58 am @Alison Of you town read Wilgy, I expect you to describe meaning to me trying to town clear them when Hally and Jimmay were voting Wilgy. Other people were able to. Unless you’re just not paying attention. My biggest issue, again, is your solve doesn’t have substance or the substance is weak/bad like in the case of MR
c4/Marmot - shocked if mafia.
Hally - not shocked if mafia at all actually, but I still town read.
Wilgy - town just get with it
Jimmay - I actually just need someone to convince me one way or another, cause it's a mixed bag
Nanook - Shrug
NAA - Shrug
Mac - Playing some sour notes
Alison - Why is your reasoning for your reads on me and MR in particular so extremely bad
MR - Actually should do a lot more things
Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Sat Feb 26, 2022 2:55 pmOk. I think it's a bit like you being confused as to how I town read Wilgy, but at the same time, I'm not that confused. Jimmay can likely be town, and I have no problem seeing that. He hasn't been bad, I also think a large part of it is me not being able to process his posts well, and then wondering if that is his fault (trying to be vague and obfuscate) or me not just having the mental fortitude to process his view.c4e5g3d5 wrote: ↑Sat Feb 26, 2022 2:06 pmJaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Fri Feb 25, 2022 5:18 pm Town reads
c4e5g3d5
Hally
MacDougall
Marmot
There's some dissonance here, but gun to head town
Dyslexicon
Master Radishes
Not town reads
Alison
DrWilgy
Nanook
NAA
At 9 vs. 2, an ordinary set of roles would call for a POE pool of 5 players (2 mafia + 3 mischops). The arrangement of this game's matrix provides the likelihood (certainty?) of a mischop being lost to an extra mafia kill or beloved princess, so reduce the POE to 4. We'd then need 6 town reads to square the game away, which for the moment does seem like a genuine challenge. I have a theoretical POE built above, but I would like to be more confident about it than I am.JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Fri Feb 25, 2022 7:08 pm I vaguely understand Dizzy's read on Wilgy. I am not sure I agree with it, but I get it.
I don't understand Mac's read on NAA.JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Fri Feb 25, 2022 7:11 pm @c4e5g3d5 you asked about my Mac read. I'm afraid it's not going to be one that is likely to move your needle a ton, but anyway:
In recent memory, when Mac has been mafia I have been able to tell pretty quickly. There's a certain degree of obviousness about how BS his chaos has been, and it becomes difficult to suspend disbelief for his sake. I don't get that impression generally in this game. I think his reads have mostly made sense and that they have aligned well with my own. When he and I are seeing a similar state of affairs I think that's usually a good sign. The only read of his that I do not follow is his town read on NAA.@Dyslexicon I'm a sucker for this kind of thingJaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Fri Feb 25, 2022 7:23 pm I could move Mac down a level to the "dissonance" pile. At the least answering c4's prompt made it clearer to me that I cannot concretely justify a town read. I can vaguely justify it.
It's the kind of read where you can see where he's leaning and when throughout even though he doesn't say it explicitly at any point
Then little things like that second post being presented as off topic and not for a specific purpose and how he shows off the original townread more than the retraction even while applying pressure come off has lacking agenda
Just a bunch ofextra hoops for w!Jay to jump through that make me think he's genuinely reading Mac
Not my only reason but it's the one I can recall right now and the one I had the most fun finding
I'm find trusting your judgement for now ig
Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Mon Feb 28, 2022 6:48 am Random reflections without having read carefully:
Is Mac really this lost and confused? Are you lost and confused, Mac?
Maybe it's a mistake to take Wilgy out of the PoE.
@JaggedJimmyJay Why are you struggling so to read me? Can I help you?
I'm pretty sure I'm over my Hally suspicion. They did a towny.
Also, I want to read this game more carefully and be more present with it. I've been constantly in a state of dissociation when engaging with the game, which isn't as comfortable as I want it to be. When I eventually get to it, I might have less random thoughts.
Conclusion
I have a hard time separating them. Nothing here stands out as alarming to me, but theoretically they fit together well enough. The only thing there is to talk about it Dizzy's town read on Wilgy, and that just sort of exists.
- by JaggedJimmyJay
- Tue Mar 01, 2022 12:09 am
- Forum: Previous Heists
- Topic: Highway Heist (MAFIA WIN)
- Replies: 3198
- Views: 53485
Re: Highway Heist (Day 2)
c4 and NAA
From c4
From NAA
Conclusion
Not much to talk about. NAA's initial suspicion of c4 doesn't really strike me as teammate stuff, but it's hard to take that the distance when the read never went anywhere.
From c4
Spoiler: show
c4e5g3d5 wrote: ↑Sat Feb 26, 2022 5:24 pmI feel it too but meybe because I want toJaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Sat Feb 26, 2022 5:22 pm I might think that NAA is handling this EOD in a town manner.
At least I think I can tell the people who were unaligning Alison/Axe to take that read all the way
c4e5g3d5 wrote: ↑Sun Feb 27, 2022 6:16 pmThis looks like something I've seen before, but without Mac.NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Sun Feb 27, 2022 6:04 pm For me, kill order is MR, Dizzy, Nanook.
If scum is outside of that... Well, mistakes were made.
Wya on Mac
From NAA
Spoiler: show
NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Thu Feb 24, 2022 7:43 pmA minor technicality.
I thought their reaction to it was bad too.
NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Thu Feb 24, 2022 7:49 pmProbably not, I think you're mafia proxy Alison and I don't understand the point of this read on C4 / it almost seems like TMI for the sake of pocketing.
NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Thu Feb 24, 2022 10:31 pm Alison, I town read your entrance, I didn't think you needed to bring that Hally read as mafia - not out of scum range maybe.
I town read the follow-up read on me, I think you're right without context my read on you / c4 is scummy.
I don't value my scum read on C4 because I haven't actually spent any time analyzing their meta, and it was more of a generic read.
NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Sat Feb 26, 2022 12:52 amC4 was my top mafia read early on... I think I would actually need to check this read in order to seriously hold onto it though.
Conclusion
Not much to talk about. NAA's initial suspicion of c4 doesn't really strike me as teammate stuff, but it's hard to take that the distance when the read never went anywhere.
- by JaggedJimmyJay
- Mon Feb 28, 2022 11:58 pm
- Forum: Previous Heists
- Topic: Highway Heist (MAFIA WIN)
- Replies: 3198
- Views: 53485
Re: Highway Heist (Day 2)
To be clear, that's not a request to stop playing. It's a reference to your behavior.
- by JaggedJimmyJay
- Mon Feb 28, 2022 11:57 pm
- Forum: Previous Heists
- Topic: Highway Heist (MAFIA WIN)
- Replies: 3198
- Views: 53485
Re: Highway Heist (Day 2)
Just say you hate being suspected so much that you lose any sense of objectivity and stop playing if you're going to lose any sense of objectivity and stop playingNANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Mon Feb 28, 2022 11:55 pm Like fuck, just say you don't know how to read me and you don't how to pair/unpair me and you're gonna kill me for it and get on with it
- by JaggedJimmyJay
- Mon Feb 28, 2022 11:56 pm
- Forum: Previous Heists
- Topic: Highway Heist (MAFIA WIN)
- Replies: 3198
- Views: 53485
Re: Highway Heist (Day 2)
I don't understand why you shit on everyone's posts so muchNANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Mon Feb 28, 2022 11:54 pm And people are surprised i self voted when there are so many of these absolute smelliest fart I've ever read type posts in this game
- by JaggedJimmyJay
- Mon Feb 28, 2022 11:49 pm
- Forum: Previous Heists
- Topic: Highway Heist (MAFIA WIN)
- Replies: 3198
- Views: 53485
Re: Highway Heist (Day 2)
c4 and Nanook
From c4
From Nanook
Conclusion
So. Uh.
lol.
I did not expect to feel this way before opening the ISOs, but these two fit together. Moreover, I think this looks like teammate shit. Hear me out friends:
Their suspicion of each other is undeveloped and blank for the majority of the game to this point. Only recently has either really taken it a step further, and that was c4 once Nanook's wagon was 3-deep and it was clear nobody trusted him. There's a hint, to me, of TMI in their treatment of each other. They almost treat the game like "this guy is obviously suspicious, and it would be redundant for me to even talk about it". Nanook did the same thing by starting 1610-theory. Then consider Nanook's core accusation against c4. Is there any better way than "reference a philosophical read by a guy not in the game" (IAWY) to cast suspicion upon someone else while also ensuring nobody else will be moved by it?
They don't have to be teammates, but they sure as hell can be. I welcome argument.
From c4
Spoiler: show
c4e5g3d5 wrote: ↑Thu Feb 24, 2022 9:33 pmThis is also a little wackJaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Thu Feb 24, 2022 9:31 pm I'm treating Nanook and Alison as claim and counterclaim.
c4e5g3d5 wrote: ↑Fri Feb 25, 2022 1:54 pmI call this "Wednesday"NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Fri Feb 25, 2022 1:51 pm Imagine having four votes on you after you've town told your ass off, smh
c4e5g3d5 wrote: ↑Mon Feb 28, 2022 8:23 pm Nook's "Look at how many posts I have" is asinine and I refuse to believe he doesn't realize it's different when they're empty Nook posts
Nook says he doesn't and shouldn't have reasons he's town when he spent his SoD1 insisting he was towntellingNANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Mon Feb 28, 2022 7:49 pmIdk, I dont have to evaluate myself lol. I think I'm broadly in my town meta but idk that there's one specific thing that clears me. Maybe my entrance wrt mac and Jay or not forcing a read on axe, but![]()
Nook popping in to push back on the two most recent out of however many points against him, and doing it exclusively with factual information, while trying to project not caring, is baaaaaaad
Simple things that have been on the table this whole time like the posts Nook chose to respond to SoD1 making his entrance look awkward as hell
c4e5g3d5 wrote: ↑Mon Feb 28, 2022 8:38 pmOh my god.NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Mon Feb 28, 2022 8:36 pm Fuck's sake
Kill c4, find the mafia in jay/axe/dizzy/mac, gg
[VOTE: nanook] aubergine
From Nanook
Spoiler: show
NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Thu Feb 24, 2022 8:45 pmSomething angstyc4e5g3d5 wrote: ↑Thu Feb 24, 2022 8:36 pmIf Schweppes were in this game, he would say something angsty hereAlison wrote: ↑Thu Feb 24, 2022 8:34 pm1) Dizzy is down.Hally wrote: ↑Thu Feb 24, 2022 7:20 pmit’s jarring, i just don’t think really think it’s AI
dizzy is more than capable of faking tone/vibe as a wolf so i believe that he’s just down regardless of alignment
2) Dizzy hates playing wolf.
3) Dizzy is more likely to be down if he is a wolf.
4) If Dizzy is down, he is more likely to be a wolf.
Which of these 4 statements is not true?
NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Thu Feb 24, 2022 9:32 pmMy entrance was actually super townie but only axe and mac are gonna recognize it lol
NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Mon Feb 28, 2022 8:36 pm Fuck's sake
Kill c4, find the mafia in jay/axe/dizzy/mac, gg
[VOTE: nanook] aubergine
NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Mon Feb 28, 2022 9:02 pm Seems unlikely given that what I've said hasn't already
I think there's likely a mafia in this game that's sort of sliding by, that pool basically amounts to wilgy/radishes/c4, I dismissed wilgy because I still think he's town and I don't think radishes fits that well, leaving me with c4, someone that has generally escaped my notice. I do believe this game is a prime target for applying the vibe tell read, and c4 fails it harder than anyone else in the game for me, so. I do think there's probably one between radishes and c4 for vague and poorly defined gamestate reasons that I don't really have the willpower or desire to even attempt to expand on, but I kinda think c4 is more likely.
By nature it's difficult to really expound on or sell, and I didn't/don't expect it to convince anyone. Convincing people isn't really my strongsuit anyways. But, that's my read.
NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Mon Feb 28, 2022 9:07 pm [VOTE: c4] aubergine
will return to self voting if the opening presents itself
Conclusion
So. Uh.
lol.
I did not expect to feel this way before opening the ISOs, but these two fit together. Moreover, I think this looks like teammate shit. Hear me out friends:
Their suspicion of each other is undeveloped and blank for the majority of the game to this point. Only recently has either really taken it a step further, and that was c4 once Nanook's wagon was 3-deep and it was clear nobody trusted him. There's a hint, to me, of TMI in their treatment of each other. They almost treat the game like "this guy is obviously suspicious, and it would be redundant for me to even talk about it". Nanook did the same thing by starting 1610-theory. Then consider Nanook's core accusation against c4. Is there any better way than "reference a philosophical read by a guy not in the game" (IAWY) to cast suspicion upon someone else while also ensuring nobody else will be moved by it?
They don't have to be teammates, but they sure as hell can be. I welcome argument.
- by JaggedJimmyJay
- Mon Feb 28, 2022 11:41 pm
- Forum: Previous Heists
- Topic: Highway Heist (MAFIA WIN)
- Replies: 3198
- Views: 53485
- by JaggedJimmyJay
- Mon Feb 28, 2022 11:35 pm
- Forum: Previous Heists
- Topic: Highway Heist (MAFIA WIN)
- Replies: 3198
- Views: 53485
Re: Highway Heist (Day 2)
c4 and MR
From c4 I would like to personally thank c4 for never saying "MR" and making the search much easier.
From MR
Conclusion
This one is similar to the Mac/c4 interaction, but swap the day phases and make c4 the primary aggressor. It starts off the right way to make them seem separated, but kind of dwindles into a dead fish. Light greem, probably not teammates.
From c4 I would like to personally thank c4 for never saying "MR" and making the search much easier.
Spoiler: show
c4e5g3d5 wrote: ↑Thu Feb 24, 2022 6:05 pmYou only have to think of one in your career and paste it into every gameMaster Radishes wrote: ↑Thu Feb 24, 2022 6:04 pmI should've thought of a witty retort to this.
c4e5g3d5 wrote: ↑Thu Feb 24, 2022 7:12 pmRadish hypes up the whole did he think what I thought he thought thing, making it sound like there's a high bar for Jay to clear hereMaster Radishes wrote: ↑Thu Feb 24, 2022 6:59 pmI bet I can answer this and if Jay explains what's in my head I'll return the lock town read on him.
All Jay has to offer is describing what Radish did and saying "this feels like town"JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Thu Feb 24, 2022 6:59 pmhis reception of Nanook doing the "Jay and Mac are outed" thing and conversion of that into "Nanook and Mac are outed" looked very real to me, even if he didn't intend for it to be taken as incredibly serious. The brain that happened in MR's brain to facilitate that read is something I don't figure mafia are braining on Page 1
And that's enough for Radish apparently
Bit of a letdown
c4e5g3d5 wrote: ↑Thu Feb 24, 2022 7:17 pmBut what about Radish's alignmentHally wrote: ↑Thu Feb 24, 2022 7:16 pmand you’re also townc4e5g3d5 wrote: ↑Thu Feb 24, 2022 7:12 pmRadish hypes up the whole did he think what I thought he thought thing, making it sound like there's a high bar for Jay to clear hereMaster Radishes wrote: ↑Thu Feb 24, 2022 6:59 pmI bet I can answer this and if Jay explains what's in my head I'll return the lock town read on him.
All Jay has to offer is describing what Radish did and saying "this feels like town"JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Thu Feb 24, 2022 6:59 pmhis reception of Nanook doing the "Jay and Mac are outed" thing and conversion of that into "Nanook and Mac are outed" looked very real to me, even if he didn't intend for it to be taken as incredibly serious. The brain that happened in MR's brain to facilitate that read is something I don't figure mafia are braining on Page 1
And that's enough for Radish apparently
Bit of a letdown
c4e5g3d5 wrote: ↑Thu Feb 24, 2022 7:38 pmWhat I'm getting annoyed at is that you raise "It's page 3" to imply there isn't enough to work off of
While in the meantime I'm gesturing toward *thing to work off of* in what I think is a pretty accessible way
I'm not asking for your holistic read on Radish, I get that it's fair for that to not exist yet, but what about this specific thing I wrote in order to talk about
c4e5g3d5 wrote: ↑Thu Feb 24, 2022 7:54 pmDon't mind, I've noticed it too and probably would've said something more aggressively worded than "Bit of a letdown" otherwiseHally wrote: ↑Thu Feb 24, 2022 7:43 pmi think your perception that there was nothing there in jay’s read that could resonate with radishes is a bit uncharitablec4e5g3d5 wrote: ↑Thu Feb 24, 2022 7:38 pmWhat I'm getting annoyed at is that you raise "It's page 3" to imply there isn't enough to work off of
While in the meantime I'm gesturing toward *thing to work off of* in what I think is a pretty accessible way
I'm not asking for your holistic read on Radish, I get that it's fair for that to not exist yet, but what about this specific thing I wrote in order to talk about
also hope you don’t mind but one thing i’ve noticed about your town game is you tend to come in a bit hard when i think especially this early it would have been better to question radishes about what he saw instead of assuming there was nothing
But I'm confused what else Radish could've seen in Jay's read at all, let alone resonate with, because it was truly just "thing feels town"
If there's some reason that resonated with Radish I'm open to hearing it, but I'll probably still be skeptical considering his first post about it
c4e5g3d5 wrote: ↑Fri Feb 25, 2022 2:48 pmhttps://www.mafiauniverse.com/forums/th ... ost5453820Master Radishes wrote: ↑Fri Feb 25, 2022 2:47 pmHas she ever been D1'd before as either alignment? Let's make history.JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Fri Feb 25, 2022 2:41 pm Randomly clicked, saw Alison wagon, loled
Y’all wild
c4e5g3d5 wrote: ↑Fri Feb 25, 2022 6:52 pm@Master Radishes hopefully if I ask this way it's slightly less tail-chasingMaster Radishes wrote: ↑Thu Feb 24, 2022 6:59 pmI bet I can answer this and if Jay explains what's in my head I'll return the lock town read on him.
What would Jay have had to say for you to not townread him?
c4e5g3d5 wrote: ↑Sun Feb 27, 2022 8:12 pmNook is wolfy and I haven't felt a need to persuade anyone
"Mac needs to step it up" has been hammered into all of us enough
Gut says he's been playing in a generally unaligned way but I don't normally need my gut with Mac
I have reasons to like all of Axe/Dizzy/Radish/Wilgy and just need some of them to be stronger ffs
c4e5g3d5 wrote: ↑Sun Feb 27, 2022 8:23 pmAxe has a towny self-absorptionMacDougall wrote: ↑Sun Feb 27, 2022 8:16 pmwhat are those reasons?c4e5g3d5 wrote: ↑Sun Feb 27, 2022 8:12 pmNook is wolfy and I haven't felt a need to persuade anyone
"Mac needs to step it up" has been hammered into all of us enough
Gut says he's been playing in a generally unaligned way but I don't normally need my gut with Mac
I have reasons to like all of Axe/Dizzy/Radish/Wilgy and just need some of them to be stronger ffs
Dizzy is being significantly more effective and less agenda'd than GoC
Radish's takes have felt like they came without obligation
Wilgy made catches I didn't expect him to when I didn't expect him to
c4e5g3d5 wrote: ↑Mon Feb 28, 2022 9:42 pmI feel like I can read Hally pretty well but that's just in terms of their own alignmentJaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Mon Feb 28, 2022 9:39 pmI need 2-way interactions for every living pair. Is there any one player on this list that you think you read particularly well?
I did wolf with Radish that one time and got to see specifically how he treated partners so maybe I'd be good at that
From MR
Spoiler: show
Master Radishes wrote: ↑Thu Feb 24, 2022 6:04 pmI should've thought of a witty retort to this.
Master Radishes wrote: ↑Thu Feb 24, 2022 6:07 pmI should've thought of a witty retort to this.c4e5g3d5 wrote: ↑Thu Feb 24, 2022 6:05 pmYou only have to think of one in your career and paste it into every gameMaster Radishes wrote: ↑Thu Feb 24, 2022 6:04 pmI should've thought of a witty retort to this.
Master Radishes wrote: ↑Fri Feb 25, 2022 2:01 am I don't want to spend the mental energy responding to C4's ping about me at 6am.
In a nutshell Jay made a lightly serious read on pg 1, I felt I immediately understood why, then he said exactly why, so I said 'yep' and turned off my phone and went to sleep.
Master Radishes wrote: ↑Fri Feb 25, 2022 7:53 pmWay to slip C4's thing in there without personally relying on it for your own case.Alison wrote: ↑Fri Feb 25, 2022 7:50 pmHis entrance was bad. c4 made a case against him if you care about that. I don't, but maybe it sways you. Then he came back into the thread and sort of acknowledged the suspicion on him but skated by. (He was top wagon when he returned to the thread. But he did not do anything townie. Now he is not top wagon. This makes me wonder why.) His wagon position relative to mine makes me suspect him more.
Master Radishes wrote: ↑Sat Feb 26, 2022 8:10 am These are nothing more than feelings, but I'd be fine with calling Hally and Marmot town, and probably Jay, Dizzy, and C4 too. I respect all their ranges but the first two have had moments where I sensed genuinity and the latter three it's more of an overall vibe.
I dont have anything specifically bad to say about most of the others, just that I've seen nothing I consider good enough to raise up beyond neutrality.
Master Radishes wrote: ↑Sat Feb 26, 2022 8:14 am Actually if there's one name I'm maybe a bit off the consensus with its C4? Like I have a good enough feeling there but I feel I've seen multiple people call him along the lines of a super strong town read and I wouldn't add either adjective or any like it to such a claim.
Master Radishes wrote: ↑Sat Feb 26, 2022 8:15 am That's an invitation for someone to say 'ah you see MR, C4 is lock town because...'
Master Radishes wrote: ↑Sat Feb 26, 2022 8:21 am Reminds me,
Nothing in particular. Without going back to quote specifics, basically Jay had made the first serious ish take in the early shitposting phase and it was about me so I stopped to consider why. I thought I knew what it was. He said what I thought it was. That meant I understood his mindset which is generally a good sign.c4e5g3d5 wrote: ↑Fri Feb 25, 2022 6:52 pm@Master Radishes hopefully if I ask this way it's slightly less tail-chasingMaster Radishes wrote: ↑Thu Feb 24, 2022 6:59 pmI bet I can answer this and if Jay explains what's in my head I'll return the lock town read on him.
What would Jay have had to say for you to not townread him?
If he had something else I would've just kept him null and moved on. He said what I expected so I gave him a mental town point and moved on.
Any phrasing such as 'lock' etc we may have used was exaggerated. I'm pretty sure he assigned me a town point and then I did the same to him, and that was all.
Master Radishes wrote: ↑Sat Feb 26, 2022 3:43 pm What if the crowd of Jay, Hally, Dizzy, C4, Marmot, and I all rank Alison, NAA, Mac in preferred order and then find the average score to decide who dies.
(In this plan Wilgy and NAA are NPCs.)
Conclusion
This one is similar to the Mac/c4 interaction, but swap the day phases and make c4 the primary aggressor. It starts off the right way to make them seem separated, but kind of dwindles into a dead fish. Light greem, probably not teammates.
- by JaggedJimmyJay
- Mon Feb 28, 2022 11:25 pm
- Forum: Previous Heists
- Topic: Highway Heist (MAFIA WIN)
- Replies: 3198
- Views: 53485
Re: Highway Heist (Day 2)
Because of time constraints and also my strong town read, I am not going to do Hally interactions. If anyone thinks that's ill-advised, you should absolutely say so. Otherwise a mafia Hally is one we all share blame for.
- by JaggedJimmyJay
- Mon Feb 28, 2022 11:24 pm
- Forum: Previous Heists
- Topic: Highway Heist (MAFIA WIN)
- Replies: 3198
- Views: 53485
Re: Highway Heist (Day 2)
Regardless your point is well-received. Things are different with teams of two, and that's why I haven't already done all this. But I'm getting a bit stumped and have to open up the toolbox.
- by JaggedJimmyJay
- Mon Feb 28, 2022 11:14 pm
- Forum: Previous Heists
- Topic: Highway Heist (MAFIA WIN)
- Replies: 3198
- Views: 53485
Re: Highway Heist (Day 2)
c4 and Mac
From c4
From Mac
Conclusion
This one is a little more lukewarm than I anticipated. There is animosity, particularly from Mac at c4, but it's also not especially energized. I would tend to doubt they're teamed on the basis of just the one moment I highlighted, but with subdued confidence. I just decided to use numerous colors for my chart. Light green.
From c4
Spoiler: show
c4e5g3d5 wrote: ↑Thu Feb 24, 2022 7:14 pmSounds good to me since I know it anywayMacDougall wrote: ↑Thu Feb 24, 2022 7:13 pm I might just keep playing without knowing my alignment. Thoughts?
c4e5g3d5 wrote: ↑Thu Feb 24, 2022 9:08 pmIt's because I started lurkingDyslexicon wrote: ↑Thu Feb 24, 2022 9:06 pm Game felt so much scummier when Mac arrived, and not just Mac lol. Wtf is that all about
c4e5g3d5 wrote: ↑Fri Feb 25, 2022 6:48 pmMore on Mac? I haven't seen you say anything to imply a strong Mac read, is it just that you thought on your resons for a weak read and decided they were strong?JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Fri Feb 25, 2022 5:18 pm Town reads
c4e5g3d5
Hally
MacDougall
Marmot
There's some dissonance here, but gun to head town
Dyslexicon
Master Radishes
Not town reads
Alison
DrWilgy
Nanook
NAA
At 9 vs. 2, an ordinary set of roles would call for a POE pool of 5 players (2 mafia + 3 mischops). The arrangement of this game's matrix provides the likelihood (certainty?) of a mischop being lost to an extra mafia kill or beloved princess, so reduce the POE to 4. We'd then need 6 town reads to square the game away, which for the moment does seem like a genuine challenge. I have a theoretical POE built above, but I would like to be more confident about it than I am.
Generally agree with the rest
c4e5g3d5 wrote: ↑Thu Feb 24, 2022 7:20 pmWhat, so it would be okay if you were a PR?MacDougall wrote: ↑Thu Feb 24, 2022 7:18 pmI would hope not given I'm a VT.c4e5g3d5 wrote: ↑Thu Feb 24, 2022 7:14 pmSounds good to me since I know it anywayMacDougall wrote: ↑Thu Feb 24, 2022 7:13 pm I might just keep playing without knowing my alignment. Thoughts?
c4e5g3d5 wrote: ↑Sun Feb 27, 2022 6:16 pmThis looks like something I've seen before, but without Mac.NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Sun Feb 27, 2022 6:04 pm For me, kill order is MR, Dizzy, Nanook.
If scum is outside of that... Well, mistakes were made.
Wya on Mac
c4e5g3d5 wrote: ↑Sun Feb 27, 2022 6:27 pmIs it still for the Mac/Nook thing early on?JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Sun Feb 27, 2022 6:22 pm I had suggested before that Mac and MR are an awkward fit together. I would appreciate second opinions on that, because I could easily be wrong about it and it seems like an important interaction to sort.
Why do you think that's not w/w? I don't exactly have a counterargument, but it's because I still don't get the argument itself.
c4e5g3d5 wrote: ↑Sun Feb 27, 2022 7:41 pmWhat was dumb is that you flooded the thread with blatant falsehoods and pushed people for not debunking them with a fine-tooth comb, and it's NAI for you.MacDougall wrote: ↑Sun Feb 27, 2022 7:32 pmWhat was dumb about it and what reads did you have that aren't changed?
The reads that didn't change were... I mean, all of them? Don't see how I was implying anything else. Only alignment takeaway I had was that Jay's reflexive catch on Radish's comment was towny, which changed my Jay read from v to v.
c4e5g3d5 wrote: ↑Sun Feb 27, 2022 7:51 pmThe obvious one is "Jay didn't do preflip interactions"MacDougall wrote: ↑Sun Feb 27, 2022 7:44 pmSuch as?c4e5g3d5 wrote: ↑Sun Feb 27, 2022 7:41 pmWhat was dumb is that you flooded the thread with blatant falsehoods and pushed people for not debunking them with a fine-tooth comb, and it's NAI for you.MacDougall wrote: ↑Sun Feb 27, 2022 7:32 pmWhat was dumb about it and what reads did you have that aren't changed?
The reads that didn't change were... I mean, all of them? Don't see how I was implying anything else. Only alignment takeaway I had was that Jay's reflexive catch on Radish's comment was towny, which changed my Jay read from v to v.
Then "Jay's Hally read changing means the reason his Hally read changed has to have been the most recent thing he said about Hally"
Have either of these two even interacted with your posting today dafuqMacDougall wrote: ↑Sun Feb 27, 2022 7:16 pmYou also exaggerate what is happening for some reason. MR and Nanook have had no issues following my train of thought at all. Also you are acting like me changing up me reads and behaving in a weathervaney way is unexpected.Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Sun Feb 27, 2022 7:14 pmYour yammering makes zero sense to me. Sorryboutit.MacDougall wrote: ↑Sun Feb 27, 2022 7:11 pmNo you are sidelining hot takes that feel like cheerleading Jay in a really scummy way and even Jay noticed it.Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Sun Feb 27, 2022 7:08 pm What is my reaction and why is it bad? Is this you trying to make me look bad after a red flip or something?
This got bizarre so fast. I bet it’s pretty hilarious in specchat in some way or another.
You’re accusing Hally and clearing Hally on breathing in and out.
Or I just don’t get it.
And I believe that if there’s scum between j/hally, it’s likelier to be hally.
c4e5g3d5 wrote: ↑Sun Feb 27, 2022 7:54 pmMy townreads on Hally and Jay didn't change, my weaker townread on Dizzy didn't change, my "when is this dude gonna start" read on you didn't change because your push just now was clearly either fake or a wolfMacDougall wrote: ↑Sun Feb 27, 2022 7:44 pm Yeah I am asking what the reads were that you went into reading it all with that didn't change C4. ie. who are you townreading and scumreading before, and now?
c4e5g3d5 wrote: ↑Sun Feb 27, 2022 8:12 pmNook is wolfy and I haven't felt a need to persuade anyone
"Mac needs to step it up" has been hammered into all of us enough
Gut says he's been playing in a generally unaligned way but I don't normally need my gut with Mac
I have reasons to like all of Axe/Dizzy/Radish/Wilgy and just need some of them to be stronger ffs
c4e5g3d5 wrote: ↑Sun Feb 27, 2022 8:15 pmBuzzerMacDougall wrote: ↑Sun Feb 27, 2022 8:14 pm I've given more solving and content than you and most others.
c4e5g3d5 wrote: ↑Sun Feb 27, 2022 8:23 pmAxe has a towny self-absorptionMacDougall wrote: ↑Sun Feb 27, 2022 8:16 pmwhat are those reasons?c4e5g3d5 wrote: ↑Sun Feb 27, 2022 8:12 pmNook is wolfy and I haven't felt a need to persuade anyone
"Mac needs to step it up" has been hammered into all of us enough
Gut says he's been playing in a generally unaligned way but I don't normally need my gut with Mac
I have reasons to like all of Axe/Dizzy/Radish/Wilgy and just need some of them to be stronger ffs
Dizzy is being significantly more effective and less agenda'd than GoC
Radish's takes have felt like they came without obligation
Wilgy made catches I didn't expect him to when I didn't expect him to
c4e5g3d5 wrote: ↑Sun Feb 27, 2022 8:24 pmOh my god.MacDougall wrote: ↑Sun Feb 27, 2022 8:18 pm Like c4 there is literally no argument you can make that is "c4 has produced more content and solved harder than mac". It's just completely obviously not the case.
c4e5g3d5 wrote: ↑Sun Feb 27, 2022 8:32 pmMacDougall wrote: ↑Sun Feb 27, 2022 8:30 pmIt's literally available to you to read. You've been a ghost I've forgotten has been in the game for the majority of it and reading your ISO I can see why because you're said nothing controversial all game and have just had hedgy under the radar takes.c4e5g3d5 wrote: ↑Sun Feb 27, 2022 8:24 pmOh my god.MacDougall wrote: ↑Sun Feb 27, 2022 8:18 pm Like c4 there is literally no argument you can make that is "c4 has produced more content and solved harder than mac". It's just completely obviously not the case.
c4e5g3d5 wrote: ↑Sun Feb 27, 2022 8:40 pmI'm seeing itHally wrote: ↑Sun Feb 27, 2022 8:27 pmidk, once i untilted myself and tried to think things through i just felt he was town
like, the way he entered today with “wolves are running the game we’re all getting duped” just feels like that town!mac fire
go back and look at how he entered D2 in GoC as a wolf
i locked him as a wolf from spec because D1 town got kinda stomped but D2 he entered and had like no fire whatsoever and was posting lazy
when mac is a villager and thinks town is getting wrecked this is more like how he gets ime
From Mac
Spoiler: show
MacDougall wrote: ↑Thu Feb 24, 2022 7:18 pmI would hope not given I'm a VT.c4e5g3d5 wrote: ↑Thu Feb 24, 2022 7:14 pmSounds good to me since I know it anywayMacDougall wrote: ↑Thu Feb 24, 2022 7:13 pm I might just keep playing without knowing my alignment. Thoughts?
MacDougall wrote: ↑Thu Feb 24, 2022 9:16 pmyou dizzy MarmotJaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Thu Feb 24, 2022 9:14 pm I would love to hear everyone's town reads. It would be peachy keen. The more the better.![]()
axe c4
nanook hally Alison
wilgy
MacDougall wrote: ↑Sat Feb 26, 2022 7:04 amwell nobody has said shit about it except you and c4 hasn't posted so not sure why you're framing this like I'm bad for trying something new
MacDougall wrote: ↑Sun Feb 27, 2022 7:32 pmWhat was dumb about it and what reads did you have that aren't changed?
MacDougall wrote: ↑Sun Feb 27, 2022 7:44 pmSuch as?c4e5g3d5 wrote: ↑Sun Feb 27, 2022 7:41 pmWhat was dumb is that you flooded the thread with blatant falsehoods and pushed people for not debunking them with a fine-tooth comb, and it's NAI for you.MacDougall wrote: ↑Sun Feb 27, 2022 7:32 pmWhat was dumb about it and what reads did you have that aren't changed?
The reads that didn't change were... I mean, all of them? Don't see how I was implying anything else. Only alignment takeaway I had was that Jay's reflexive catch on Radish's comment was towny, which changed my Jay read from v to v.
MacDougall wrote: ↑Sun Feb 27, 2022 7:44 pm Yeah I am asking what the reads were that you went into reading it all with that didn't change C4. ie. who are you townreading and scumreading before, and now?
MacDougall wrote: ↑Sun Feb 27, 2022 7:56 pm[VOTE: c4] auberginec4e5g3d5 wrote: ↑Sun Feb 27, 2022 7:54 pmMy townreads on Hally and Jay didn't change, my weaker townread on Dizzy didn't change, my "when is this dude gonna start" read on you didn't change because your push just now was clearly either fake or a wolfMacDougall wrote: ↑Sun Feb 27, 2022 7:44 pm Yeah I am asking what the reads were that you went into reading it all with that didn't change C4. ie. who are you townreading and scumreading before, and now?
MacDougall wrote: ↑Sun Feb 27, 2022 8:16 pmwhat are those reasons?c4e5g3d5 wrote: ↑Sun Feb 27, 2022 8:12 pmNook is wolfy and I haven't felt a need to persuade anyone
"Mac needs to step it up" has been hammered into all of us enough
Gut says he's been playing in a generally unaligned way but I don't normally need my gut with Mac
I have reasons to like all of Axe/Dizzy/Radish/Wilgy and just need some of them to be stronger ffs
MacDougall wrote: ↑Sun Feb 27, 2022 8:16 pmI absolutely empirically and demonstrably have.c4e5g3d5 wrote: ↑Sun Feb 27, 2022 8:15 pmBuzzerMacDougall wrote: ↑Sun Feb 27, 2022 8:14 pm I've given more solving and content than you and most others.
MacDougall wrote: ↑Sun Feb 27, 2022 8:18 pm Like c4 there is literally no argument you can make that is "c4 has produced more content and solved harder than mac". It's just completely obviously not the case.
MacDougall wrote: ↑Sun Feb 27, 2022 8:30 pmIt's literally available to you to read. You've been a ghost I've forgotten has been in the game for the majority of it and reading your ISO I can see why because you're said nothing controversial all game and have just had hedgy under the radar takes.c4e5g3d5 wrote: ↑Sun Feb 27, 2022 8:24 pmOh my god.MacDougall wrote: ↑Sun Feb 27, 2022 8:18 pm Like c4 there is literally no argument you can make that is "c4 has produced more content and solved harder than mac". It's just completely obviously not the case.
MacDougall wrote: ↑Sun Feb 27, 2022 9:10 pmsorry for contributing to this but like c4 telling me to "step it up" was lame... nobody needs me to flood the thread with garbage just to make myself look townierNANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Sun Feb 27, 2022 9:08 pmAt least half the posts from the higher posters, every time there's a piss fight, when it turns into a measuring contest of who's "contributed" the most, etc. etc.Hally wrote: ↑Sun Feb 27, 2022 9:03 pmwhat part of the thread do you care about?NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Sun Feb 27, 2022 9:01 pmI don't care about a large chunk of this thread, correctHally wrote: ↑Sun Feb 27, 2022 8:59 pmi don’t think he’s being obtuse about anythingMacDougall wrote: ↑Sun Feb 27, 2022 8:57 pmHard to say. He's been different to normal but like... would he be this obtuse if he was mafia? I don't think so?
seems like he just doesn’t care
MacDougall wrote: ↑Sun Feb 27, 2022 9:29 pmWilgy hit the thread way late and got to work pushing MR for awful reasons and then later on dropped that read in favour of pushing C4 for awful reasons. Meanwhile he spent most of the time voting me without talking about me.
I'd say his teammate is likely MR. People just give Wilgy twtbw townreads a lot.
MacDougall wrote: ↑Sun Feb 27, 2022 10:33 pmwhy is c4 your top town?JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Sun Feb 27, 2022 10:13 pm If I ignore all notions of building a total game theory and just give flat reads of players in isolation, it'd look something like this:
c4e5g3d5
Hally
NotAnAxehole
MacDougall
Dyslexicon
DrWilgy
Nanook
Master Radishes
MacDougall wrote: ↑Sun Feb 27, 2022 10:33 pmso your top town is something you're not that sure of?JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Sun Feb 27, 2022 10:29 pm As for c4, I am not really bothered by his SOD2, but I don't oppose him facing the music a bit so to speak. He'll have to earn his keep.
MacDougall wrote: ↑Mon Feb 28, 2022 2:22 amsuch asJaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Mon Feb 28, 2022 12:48 am I think c4 is town. He has been paying extremely close attention to the subtleties of posts and posting trends and is noticing things that I don't think mafia realize they could be looking for.
Conclusion
This one is a little more lukewarm than I anticipated. There is animosity, particularly from Mac at c4, but it's also not especially energized. I would tend to doubt they're teamed on the basis of just the one moment I highlighted, but with subdued confidence. I just decided to use numerous colors for my chart. Light green.
- by JaggedJimmyJay
- Mon Feb 28, 2022 11:00 pm
- Forum: Previous Heists
- Topic: Highway Heist (MAFIA WIN)
- Replies: 3198
- Views: 53485
Re: Highway Heist (Day 2)
c4 and Dizzy
From c4 (not in perfect order because of the Dizzys and Dyslexicons)
From Dizzy
Conclusion
I don't think these two are both mafia. The most important factor is that c4's Not 1610 post tends to necessitate this dissociation. I don't care to expand on that. Otherwise you can see a few highlighted posts of c4's in which he is trying earnestly to explain reads to Dizzy in manners that suggest to me there is no prior connection -- the connection is being forged in the game thread by way of discussing these reads of c4's that Dizzy doesn't understand.
From c4 (not in perfect order because of the Dizzys and Dyslexicons)
Spoiler: show
c4e5g3d5 wrote: ↑Thu Feb 24, 2022 9:08 pmIt's because I started lurkingDyslexicon wrote: ↑Thu Feb 24, 2022 9:06 pm Game felt so much scummier when Mac arrived, and not just Mac lol. Wtf is that all about
c4e5g3d5 wrote: ↑Thu Feb 24, 2022 9:29 pmHally u maybe Alison maybe DizzyJaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Thu Feb 24, 2022 9:14 pm I would love to hear everyone's town reads. It would be peachy keen. The more the better.![]()
I don't get the Marmot reads but it's probably my fault for not actually absorbing any of his posts
c4e5g3d5 wrote: ↑Fri Feb 25, 2022 7:38 pmHallyJaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Fri Feb 25, 2022 7:22 pm Name 6 townies not including yourself. Get it right and you win the game. Anyone fancy a try?
Marmot
Probably you
Imma roll with Dizzy
Uhhhhhhhhhhhh fuck it Axe
I'm out of ideas
Don't you hate it when everyone has one more townread than you because that one townread is you
c4e5g3d5 wrote: ↑Fri Feb 25, 2022 7:43 pmAlison wrote: ↑Fri Feb 25, 2022 7:36 pmPerhaps you have done townie things in the section I didn't read. Feel free to quote them to spark discussion in advance.Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Fri Feb 25, 2022 7:34 pmI've done only towny things you don't even know what a citizen pays in taxesOh my god.Alison wrote: ↑Fri Feb 25, 2022 7:40 pmI don't think Dizzy should be a consensus town read. This man has done nothing.JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Fri Feb 25, 2022 7:37 pm I'm happy to accept Dizzy as a town read purely by consensus. He's close enough. Perhaps I swap him with Mac in the uncertain pile. I end up with something like:
c4, Dizzy, Hally, Marmot
-
MR, Mac
-
Alison, Nanook, NAA, Wilgy
Wilgy's in a strange spot right now. I think he is the most actively suspicious player in the thread, save perhaps Alison. Both Dizzy and Nanook have provided strong vouches though so I will think about it. The Nanook-Wilgy dynamic is especially important.
c4e5g3d5 wrote: ↑Sat Feb 26, 2022 5:00 pmI'm paused for the day but I got the impression that people like Dizzy weren'tJaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Sat Feb 26, 2022 4:49 pm Welp I'm ready to go. I'll let anyone protest if they want before I return Alison to L-1.
c4e5g3d5 wrote: ↑Fri Feb 25, 2022 6:51 pmEntirely for that one post? Big meh.Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Fri Feb 25, 2022 6:49 pmWilgy is town.JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Fri Feb 25, 2022 5:18 pm Town reads
c4e5g3d5
Hally
MacDougall
Marmot
There's some dissonance here, but gun to head town
Dyslexicon
Master Radishes
Not town reads
Alison
DrWilgy
Nanook
NAA
At 9 vs. 2, an ordinary set of roles would call for a POE pool of 5 players (2 mafia + 3 mischops). The arrangement of this game's matrix provides the likelihood (certainty?) of a mischop being lost to an extra mafia kill or beloved princess, so reduce the POE to 4. We'd then need 6 town reads to square the game away, which for the moment does seem like a genuine challenge. I have a theoretical POE built above, but I would like to be more confident about it than I am.
What's the dissonance with me?
c4e5g3d5 wrote: ↑Fri Feb 25, 2022 7:01 pmThis is a big part of my MO too so I get that much, but this specific kind of read is one I've turned my confidence in way, way down over time because of how frequently it's been wrongDyslexicon wrote: ↑Fri Feb 25, 2022 6:54 pmIt is that, and I just feel it.
I have more success reading town from micro tells (one off posts)
But not a lot of success reading scum from micro tells (cause town says weird and scummy shit or stuff that is insincere all the time)
Town read micro and scum read macro or something.
This is a rant that's not really relevant, but just something I thought about today.
Anyway, I still think Wilgy is town so sue me.
c4e5g3d5 wrote: ↑Fri Feb 25, 2022 7:07 pmFire wcDyslexicon wrote: ↑Fri Feb 25, 2022 7:04 pmOf course, we could all be wrong. What if wolves are you and Marmot oh wow.c4e5g3d5 wrote: ↑Fri Feb 25, 2022 7:01 pmThis is a big part of my MO too so I get that much, but this specific kind of read is one I've turned my confidence in way, way down over time because of how frequently it's been wrongDyslexicon wrote: ↑Fri Feb 25, 2022 6:54 pmIt is that, and I just feel it.
I have more success reading town from micro tells (one off posts)
But not a lot of success reading scum from micro tells (cause town says weird and scummy shit or stuff that is insincere all the time)
Town read micro and scum read macro or something.
This is a rant that's not really relevant, but just something I thought about today.
Anyway, I still think Wilgy is town so sue me.
c4e5g3d5 wrote: ↑Sat Feb 26, 2022 12:19 pmTarget acquired once I get on PCDyslexicon wrote: ↑Sat Feb 26, 2022 7:29 am Jimmay - I actually just need someone to convince me one way or another, cause it's a mixed bag
c4e5g3d5 wrote: ↑Sat Feb 26, 2022 2:06 pmJaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Fri Feb 25, 2022 5:18 pm Town reads
c4e5g3d5
Hally
MacDougall
Marmot
There's some dissonance here, but gun to head town
Dyslexicon
Master Radishes
Not town reads
Alison
DrWilgy
Nanook
NAA
At 9 vs. 2, an ordinary set of roles would call for a POE pool of 5 players (2 mafia + 3 mischops). The arrangement of this game's matrix provides the likelihood (certainty?) of a mischop being lost to an extra mafia kill or beloved princess, so reduce the POE to 4. We'd then need 6 town reads to square the game away, which for the moment does seem like a genuine challenge. I have a theoretical POE built above, but I would like to be more confident about it than I am.JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Fri Feb 25, 2022 7:08 pm I vaguely understand Dizzy's read on Wilgy. I am not sure I agree with it, but I get it.
I don't understand Mac's read on NAA.JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Fri Feb 25, 2022 7:11 pm @c4e5g3d5 you asked about my Mac read. I'm afraid it's not going to be one that is likely to move your needle a ton, but anyway:
In recent memory, when Mac has been mafia I have been able to tell pretty quickly. There's a certain degree of obviousness about how BS his chaos has been, and it becomes difficult to suspend disbelief for his sake. I don't get that impression generally in this game. I think his reads have mostly made sense and that they have aligned well with my own. When he and I are seeing a similar state of affairs I think that's usually a good sign. The only read of his that I do not follow is his town read on NAA.@Dyslexicon I'm a sucker for this kind of thingJaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Fri Feb 25, 2022 7:23 pm I could move Mac down a level to the "dissonance" pile. At the least answering c4's prompt made it clearer to me that I cannot concretely justify a town read. I can vaguely justify it.
It's the kind of read where you can see where he's leaning and when throughout even though he doesn't say it explicitly at any point
Then little things like that second post being presented as off topic and not for a specific purpose and how he shows off the original townread more than the retraction even while applying pressure come off has lacking agenda
Just a bunch ofextra hoops for w!Jay to jump through that make me think he's genuinely reading Mac
Not my only reason but it's the one I can recall right now and the one I had the most fun finding
c4e5g3d5 wrote: ↑Sat Feb 26, 2022 3:58 pmThe thing that made me just stop thinking about Hally was thisDyslexicon wrote: ↑Sat Feb 26, 2022 2:44 pm Why do we actually town read Hally again? I've already forgotten.
Does Jimmay always write posts that seems so academic they basically end up lacking meaning (to me?) Have I just forgotten. I feel like every statement and every read is just "quantitively this and qualitatively that but inverse it and flip it at its head over time and you'll get the sum of my concern for the nuances of.." Ok, this is totally a parody and done with a lot of love, I hope you believe me Jimmay. And it may very, very well be more on my side. I just find it hard to process what your actual point is a lot of the time.
If w!Hally came up with the perspective of "I'm responding more aggressively than is typical of me, wolves would be unprepared and more willing to initially bs a push on me based on my normal meta, and Alison's treatment of me reflects that, followed by her realizing that this isn't my typical town game this time and going into damage control" as a wolf, then holy fucking shit lolHally wrote: ↑Thu Feb 24, 2022 11:28 pmthe thing is i don’t really buy that it was all a reaction test - that feels like a retcon because i wolf read her push on me and she probably wasn’t expecting that because i tend not to OMGUSc4e5g3d5 wrote: ↑Thu Feb 24, 2022 11:19 pmThis seems kinda Alison 101 lmaoHally wrote: ↑Thu Feb 24, 2022 10:55 pmyour entire push on me was a reaction test?Alison wrote: ↑Thu Feb 24, 2022 10:54 pmAll of those things are reaction tests.Hally wrote: ↑Thu Feb 24, 2022 10:53 pmi probably shouldn’t lump you in with him
was annoyed at you earlier because it felt like you weren’t even trying to find me and were trying to pigeonhole me into your logic with the dizzy thing and then seriously asking me why i wouldn’t be ok blindly sheeping you when i don’t v read you and you wolf read me
just frankly asinine things that i have a hard time seeing you come at me with as a villager
but you’ve dropped it now so hopefully that’s the end of that
Also I think the main reason for my Alison tr is presentation, still having trouble describing it but there's an efficiency to it, she gets to the point quickly and bluntly in a way that looks designed to hit harder when you read it
Just makes me actually believe she's trying to stir the thread, and I also think it describes what I've seen of v!Alison better than what I've seen of w!Alison
And generally she seems to not have any kind of schedule for who she pressures and when but these reads are always wrong from me so take that one with a grain of salt
also re: the rest, the reason i think she’s wolfy is because i think v!alison is generally more measured and reasonable (albeit still forceful) whereas here i feel like she’s been going 1000mph trying to engineer something to push on that will stick, and that just feels like how i expect a wolf of her archetype to play in a strong player list where she knows if she’s not aggressive pushing her agenda she’s going to get boxed out of the thread very quickly
c4e5g3d5 wrote: ↑Sun Feb 27, 2022 7:54 pmMy townreads on Hally and Jay didn't change, my weaker townread on Dizzy didn't change, my "when is this dude gonna start" read on you didn't change because your push just now was clearly either fake or a wolfMacDougall wrote: ↑Sun Feb 27, 2022 7:44 pm Yeah I am asking what the reads were that you went into reading it all with that didn't change C4. ie. who are you townreading and scumreading before, and now?
c4e5g3d5 wrote: ↑Sun Feb 27, 2022 8:12 pmNook is wolfy and I haven't felt a need to persuade anyone
"Mac needs to step it up" has been hammered into all of us enough
Gut says he's been playing in a generally unaligned way but I don't normally need my gut with Mac
I have reasons to like all of Axe/Dizzy/Radish/Wilgy and just need some of them to be stronger ffs
c4e5g3d5 wrote: ↑Sun Feb 27, 2022 8:23 pmAxe has a towny self-absorptionMacDougall wrote: ↑Sun Feb 27, 2022 8:16 pmwhat are those reasons?c4e5g3d5 wrote: ↑Sun Feb 27, 2022 8:12 pmNook is wolfy and I haven't felt a need to persuade anyone
"Mac needs to step it up" has been hammered into all of us enough
Gut says he's been playing in a generally unaligned way but I don't normally need my gut with Mac
I have reasons to like all of Axe/Dizzy/Radish/Wilgy and just need some of them to be stronger ffs
Dizzy is being significantly more effective and less agenda'd than GoC
Radish's takes have felt like they came without obligation
Wilgy made catches I didn't expect him to when I didn't expect him to
c4e5g3d5 wrote: ↑Mon Feb 28, 2022 6:40 pmOh. Okay.JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Mon Feb 28, 2022 6:37 pmPeople think you 1610'd, so you might want to deal with that.
Read Dizzy's second and third posts of the day. I thought it was too obvious and wanted him to be explicit about it in either direction.
From Dizzy
Spoiler: show
Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Thu Feb 24, 2022 7:20 pm I change my mind. Hally could be town.
With Jimmay, c4 and probably possibly Radish.
Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Thu Feb 24, 2022 9:14 pm Mac is probably town tbh
Add Hally, c4, Marmot and Radish. YES RADISH
Towncoreville wow
Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Thu Feb 24, 2022 9:34 pmYeah, can't tell if wack or just Jimmay being SO SERIOUS MAFIA PLAYERc4e5g3d5 wrote: ↑Thu Feb 24, 2022 9:33 pmThis is also a little wackJaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Thu Feb 24, 2022 9:31 pm I'm treating Nanook and Alison as claim and counterclaim.
Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Fri Feb 25, 2022 6:55 pm Town:
Marmot
c4
Wilgy
Hally
MR
Everyone else should get townier if they are town.
Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Fri Feb 25, 2022 7:04 pmOf course, we could all be wrong. What if wolves are you and Marmot oh wow.c4e5g3d5 wrote: ↑Fri Feb 25, 2022 7:01 pmThis is a big part of my MO too so I get that much, but this specific kind of read is one I've turned my confidence in way, way down over time because of how frequently it's been wrongDyslexicon wrote: ↑Fri Feb 25, 2022 6:54 pmIt is that, and I just feel it.
I have more success reading town from micro tells (one off posts)
But not a lot of success reading scum from micro tells (cause town says weird and scummy shit or stuff that is insincere all the time)
Town read micro and scum read macro or something.
This is a rant that's not really relevant, but just something I thought about today.
Anyway, I still think Wilgy is town so sue me.
Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Sat Feb 26, 2022 7:24 amYou might be bad for doing things that won't lead anywhere. Cause your shit doesn't lead anywhere when you are mafia. I believe it's the number one difference between your wolf and town game.MacDougall wrote: ↑Sat Feb 26, 2022 7:04 amwell nobody has said shit about it except you and c4 hasn't posted so not sure why you're framing this like I'm bad for trying something new
c4 is pretty consensus town read.
Your particular brand of pouting isn't inspiring either.
Just my opinion man
Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Sat Feb 26, 2022 7:29 amI should add that my reads aren't really that different to yours tbh.Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Sat Feb 26, 2022 6:58 am @Alison Of you town read Wilgy, I expect you to describe meaning to me trying to town clear them when Hally and Jimmay were voting Wilgy. Other people were able to. Unless you’re just not paying attention. My biggest issue, again, is your solve doesn’t have substance or the substance is weak/bad like in the case of MR
c4/Marmot - shocked if mafia.
Hally - not shocked if mafia at all actually, but I still town read.
Wilgy - town just get with it
Jimmay - I actually just need someone to convince me one way or another, cause it's a mixed bag
Nanook - Shrug
NAA - Shrug
Mac - Playing some sour notes
Alison - Why is your reasoning for your reads on me and MR in particular so extremely bad
MR - Actually should do a lot more things
Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Sat Feb 26, 2022 2:32 pmYou're a possible chop. C4 is not. So it leads somewhere. Potentially. Your alignment is irrelevant.MacDougall wrote: ↑Sat Feb 26, 2022 8:10 amno burn intended I am just trying to make you recognise the hypocrisy of claiming my play "leads nowhere" when your current play is to yolo a vote onto a town Mac
If you want to understand my perspective. But if you want to moan, feel free.
Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Sat Feb 26, 2022 2:55 pmOk. I think it's a bit like you being confused as to how I town read Wilgy, but at the same time, I'm not that confused. Jimmay can likely be town, and I have no problem seeing that. He hasn't been bad, I also think a large part of it is me not being able to process his posts well, and then wondering if that is his fault (trying to be vague and obfuscate) or me not just having the mental fortitude to process his view.c4e5g3d5 wrote: ↑Sat Feb 26, 2022 2:06 pmJaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Fri Feb 25, 2022 5:18 pm Town reads
c4e5g3d5
Hally
MacDougall
Marmot
There's some dissonance here, but gun to head town
Dyslexicon
Master Radishes
Not town reads
Alison
DrWilgy
Nanook
NAA
At 9 vs. 2, an ordinary set of roles would call for a POE pool of 5 players (2 mafia + 3 mischops). The arrangement of this game's matrix provides the likelihood (certainty?) of a mischop being lost to an extra mafia kill or beloved princess, so reduce the POE to 4. We'd then need 6 town reads to square the game away, which for the moment does seem like a genuine challenge. I have a theoretical POE built above, but I would like to be more confident about it than I am.JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Fri Feb 25, 2022 7:08 pm I vaguely understand Dizzy's read on Wilgy. I am not sure I agree with it, but I get it.
I don't understand Mac's read on NAA.JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Fri Feb 25, 2022 7:11 pm @c4e5g3d5 you asked about my Mac read. I'm afraid it's not going to be one that is likely to move your needle a ton, but anyway:
In recent memory, when Mac has been mafia I have been able to tell pretty quickly. There's a certain degree of obviousness about how BS his chaos has been, and it becomes difficult to suspend disbelief for his sake. I don't get that impression generally in this game. I think his reads have mostly made sense and that they have aligned well with my own. When he and I are seeing a similar state of affairs I think that's usually a good sign. The only read of his that I do not follow is his town read on NAA.@Dyslexicon I'm a sucker for this kind of thingJaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Fri Feb 25, 2022 7:23 pm I could move Mac down a level to the "dissonance" pile. At the least answering c4's prompt made it clearer to me that I cannot concretely justify a town read. I can vaguely justify it.
It's the kind of read where you can see where he's leaning and when throughout even though he doesn't say it explicitly at any point
Then little things like that second post being presented as off topic and not for a specific purpose and how he shows off the original townread more than the retraction even while applying pressure come off has lacking agenda
Just a bunch ofextra hoops for w!Jay to jump through that make me think he's genuinely reading Mac
Not my only reason but it's the one I can recall right now and the one I had the most fun finding
I'm find trusting your judgement for now ig
Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Mon Feb 28, 2022 6:25 pmFlip a mafia =p
It's complicated.
It's bad timing now, cause I've been out all day and about to go to sleep.
I'm sure you have some world view post or something like that, cause that may help.
Or just make it easier again.
I'm going easy route you/c4/jay town, I guess.
I could be there on Mac if you all agree-ish.
Not sure. His sorry for existing attitude was maybe towny for him. If real lol. But sure.
So.
Conclusion
I don't think these two are both mafia. The most important factor is that c4's Not 1610 post tends to necessitate this dissociation. I don't care to expand on that. Otherwise you can see a few highlighted posts of c4's in which he is trying earnestly to explain reads to Dizzy in manners that suggest to me there is no prior connection -- the connection is being forged in the game thread by way of discussing these reads of c4's that Dizzy doesn't understand.
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