The Syndicate

I can't find an example of Epignosis addressing or speaking of Quin 2.0 at any point after Beck was replaced. Not a word.

Not sure why Quin 2.0 would feel the need to kill someone who thought he was invisible.

However, I think you're incorrect to disqualify him MM. Beck was definitely here at the start of Night 1, and Quin 2.0 replaced him in the middle of Night 2. The slot was filled and active as necessary to deliver all possible SK kills.

Epignosis wrote:

Beck wrote:I guess I'll ask this to anyone willing to answer.

Who are the best wolves in this lineup? Who are the best villagers?

Is there anyone who cannot play one alignment well?

If I'm bad I will win. See my signature? Most of those are mafia wins. I'm proud of that.

Am I bad? Are you?

This guy.

I am content to act on the assumption that the serial killer killed Epignosis with the intention of removing a townie. Credit to Epignosis to looking the part (perhaps a little too well ). With this in mind, I think the kill would be less likely to come from someone who was in good standing with Epi. This would be a decent look for Golden 2.0 -- he and Epi had their disagreements, but it never took the form of Epi suspecting Golden. I might even say that from the perspective of a SK Golden, he'd have had Epi pocketed. I don't believe Epi ever cast meaningful suspicion upon Sloonei either -- just an isolated about his Day 1 CFDing.

I can't remember off-hand what Epi's take was on MM and Becquin. I'll have to look.

Metalmarsh89 wrote:The odds of Quin being the SK aren't very high, and the odds of him being mafia are extremely slim considering they're likely dead. Yet he's tunneled on me the last day and a half.

Yeah, that's a parallel I'm conscious of. Quin should share his current read on Marmot.

Metalmarsh89 wrote:Does inh have anything to gain by forcing a read on you that he doesn't believe in?

If I am a SK, my chief interest in any day phase is "lynch someone who is not me" -- everything else is secondary to that. So yes, I think he would. I also think it's moot, because if he does believe in it -- that doesn't preclude him from being a SK.

Metalmarsh89 wrote:I thought the point was to call it mafia behavior?

I've been calling him my top SK suspect in recent memory too because of my night kill analysis. I think that behavior is applicable either way.

Metalmarsh89 wrote:An SK would have the inclination to act as an active baddie-hunter, especially at a point in the game where civilian numbers are low compared to mafia numbers.

They would, yes. And perhaps INH really was looking for a scum and tunneled me that thoroughly. It happens. I want him to respond to my assertions before I make that assumption in his favor.

Metalmarsh89 wrote:I can only remember one game where we lynched a player because we thought they were the SK, as opposed to reading them as mafia. That was in Talking Heads with Diiny. And if I recall, the only reason we caught him was because he didn't post one night and missed a kill. His record otherwise was pretty pristine.

I voted for Diiny in Talking Heads because of night kill analysis. Because it was successful in that game, I employed the same method in this game -- that's when I determined the two players most implicated by the kills on Nights 1 and 2 were INH and yourself. I've started to like you more since then, and I think Epignosis on Night 3 is also attributable to INH (Epignosis voiced suspicion of INH throughout Day 3 and after reywaS flipped town and I looked better he'd have probably gone that direction again).

Metalmarsh89 wrote:My point is, I don't think you can use the exact same argument with a different conclusion, because the argument doesn't relate to this particular role.

That's kind of my point too -- the conclusion is a general one. He suspects me regardless of circumstance and is not developing his read. He's counting on me being lynched. I think that's mafia behavior and serial killer behavior. I could be wrong, but I want his answers.

Metalmarsh89 wrote:

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:I think my beefs with INH are as applicable to a serial killer as a scum, so I'd still like a response to that.

Except for Point 1, I don't think any of this is relevant anymore.

Point 2 might be relevant since the SK nightkilled Epignosis. inh doesn't like that you suggest that SK nightkill a possible mafia member, and the ensuing night, the most townread player in the game (aside from the just-returned Golden) is nightkilled. But that's only if you think inh's thoughts and the SK's actions are that well-connected.

I don't follow. The point of that post was to illustrate that INH's read on me is not developing organically, which would be applicable to anyone whose chief interest is survival.

I could actually see INH himself killing Epignosis and then painting that hyper-complex and improbable scenario to blame me for it.

I think this moment from MM is a nice look:

Metalmarsh89 wrote:

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:

Metalmarsh89 wrote:

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:MM, what do you think of Wilgy's behavior since he replaced S~V~S?

He hasn't exhibited any of his towntells, but he hadn't as DrWilgy 1.0 either.

I think he's a civilian though. What do you think of this list he posted last night?

I think he put random names into a post. I don't think there was a good reason to associate Golden and INH as team mates while they were arguing with each other over page after page about strategic concepts. I have no idea what his gripe was with Ricochet. After he played so lazily at Wilgy 1.0, he'd have no choice but to maintain that image as Wilgy 2.0 when he draws a mafia role. He is still doing fuck all, but he's pretending to have "reads" in the midst of that fuck all.

I could also see him killing either Golden or Ricochet to help facilitate his current vote today. "Welp, my 'suspect' died, I guess I'm stuck voting for JJJ" -- while most of the remaining players are already frothing at the mouth waiting to click the JJJ button. It just reeks of fakeness and opportunism.

Combine that with the fact that I think there are valid reasons to town read everyone in this game except Wilgy 2.0 and reywaS, and it makes my suspect pool pretty obvious. Them.

What makes you think he's a civilian?

I forgot that DrWilgy can't be a vig, I take back my townread.

That he was considering Wilgy as a possible townie with vigilante in mind would imply that he was genuinely exploring the source of the extra night kills. If this was fake cover for a SK Marmot, it was a creative method for that.

I think my beefs with INH are as applicable to a serial killer as a scum, so I'd still like a response to that.

Also lol Wilgy's dying read was correct. My bad dude.

This likely means it 5 vs 1, which is still LyLo-eve.

DrWilgy was the scum kill, Epi was the SK kill. Time to start digging.

Note to self: when Epignosis can't let it go even when he has to make absurd arguments, lynch him.

Good then. So much for "I don't bus team mates".

Quin wrote:No, but my reason for thinking that it's you is the strongest.

I'd like to hear more, Quin. I know we've talked about MM a lot already, but we're here and we have 1.5 days to sort it out. I think I am clear on why you disagree with the reasons I have provided to town read him. We're good there.

What I want to know more about is why you read him as scum rather than merely as less town.

Metalmarsh89 wrote:

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:My PC² in this game is currently 149.50. I am not going to explain what this means.

I assume it means your average posts-per-day?

Pretty much. Post count per cycles alive (PCPC ---> PC²).

Super secret project.

insertnamehere wrote:Night 3: DrWilgy and Epignosis; Remember when 3J directly told the SK to get out a baddie or else we all may be screwed? Lookie at what happened. Now, this is a WIFOM minefield, but the scenario that makes the most sense to me is the SK killing Wilgy, and 3J using that as cover to eliminate Epi, a player who was both unpredictable, clever, and against him.

INH's rationale for associating the Epignosis and Wilgy kills with me.

Yellow: The implication here is that I am the serial killer and I killed Wilgy in an attempt to kill a mafioso, or that I told the SK publicly who to kill so that I could use my own [mafia] kill on Epignosis.

He called it a WIFOM minefield.

I call it nonsense.

This "theory" demands that the following take place:

1. I am mafia specifically, not the SK or a townie.

2. The SK listens to my public recommendation that he try to kill a mafioso (which was made before reywaS flipped mafia, BTW).

3. I trust the SK to listen to my public recommendation and then orient my own kill under the assumption that DrWilgy will be targeted.

4. I have a mindset that allows for me to believe that the SK killing DrWilgy somehow provides me with "cover" to decrease the chances of my own killing of Epignosis getting me into trouble (I have no idea what this assertion even is).

That's how many steps INH has taken to arrive at the notion that I am scum and killed Epignosis. That's how much work it took to accuse me of that. It's a farce.

Let's examine precisely how many seconds INH spent after reywaS flipped scum contemplating the possibility that I just might be town after all. The first two posts he made after reywaS re-flipped:
The first post contains plenty of griping about JJJ but no read of him. The second post clearly states that JJJ is more likely to have bussed rey or be a serial killer than be a townie. The answer to my previous question is thus zero seconds. He didn't even consider the possibility that I am town. This is the same player who has repeatedly claimed in this game that his reads are never 100% -- but when confronted with a profound change in game circumstance, his read doesn't move a millimeter. He doesn't show any evidence at all that he is willing to develop his read of me, but instead he is determined to continue attacking me with whatever convoluted theory he is forced to concoct (see above).

That's mafia behavior.

Given that INH made it plain he's not in civilian BTSC with Golden, I have no good reason to town read him at the moment. I don't care about the meta read on Day 4 with a deep wolf in play.

VOTE INSERTNAMEHERE

Yeah I'm not down for trying that. If I'm right, lynching a townie features the only game-winning and only game-losing scenarios in play right now.

I'd much prefer it be a vigilante.

Sloonei wrote:Our lynch success rate is 67% and we might be in lylo right now. I'm voting for G-man.

It's a bizarre situation. It's possible for town to win the game this cycle.

But only if we lynch a townie.

Sloonei wrote:That was my only moment of the champs finale.

Fair.

I'm annoyed that there are probably two evildoers among the rest of you five. Whoever they are they've played well.

I think I appreciate that Sloonei isn't trying to look like he's more engaged than he really is. At the same time, I thought his towniest moment of the champs finale (when he asked for help in getting caught up) was when he didn't look more engaged than he really was.

Actually the biggest concern about Golden 2.0 is that he is also leetic, and who knows WTF to do with leetic. I honestly think that if leetic was some manner of non-townie, we're in trouble because there's no evidence to support it given leetic's silence and the fact that neither dead scum had much to say about him (other than Scotty's semi-self-preservation vote).

Golden wrote:

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:I think the most suspicious player at face value is INH.

I think the most suspicious player by the evidence is Quin.

I have a little tinfoil going on with MM, but it's tinfoil.

Where do you stand on sloonster and me, at the moment?

linki, lol.

The biggest concern I could voice about you is that your continued defenses of me are a pocketing tactic as much as an honest conveyance of your perspective. That could have been said of Golden 1.0 too though and he was town.

I should probably be more afraid of Sloonei than I am.

I think the most suspicious player at face value is INH.

I think the most suspicious player by the evidence is Quin.

I have a little tinfoil going on with MM, but it's tinfoil.

Golden wrote:I wish inh had done more than just go after Jay and bag me I want to know more about his thought processes on others.

One thing I will say about INH which might work in his favor, even in terms of SK candidacy:

If he is bad, he has gone below the belt with the methods he has employed. To devote so many posts to criticizing people for things that are more about how they play than whether they're bad as a manipulative strategy is not something I would be willing to do as a bad guy. It's not just about what is strategically best, but also what promotes the best gamesmanship. I don't know INH well enough to make that judgment call.

Metalmarsh89 wrote:I'd rather lose to you than reywaS in this scenario.

That's a mindset I can definitely appreciate. At the worst of the anti-JJJ propaganda around here in this game, I was certain town would be losing this game to Wilgy and/or reywaS. And that would have been horrid.

Sloonei wrote:The good news is I have no work to do between now and Sunday. The bad news is I'm tired and watching west coast baseball, so my activity in this thread will have to wait until tomorrow. But it's coming. This time I'm serious.

If anyone has things they want me to address/look at that I haven't already, feel free to throw them at me.

I'd just like to see you make a substantive read on every remaining player. I don't mean you need to put up a bunch of ISOs -- but ideally you could look at post histories and share your current judgments with a fuller understanding of the context.

I almost get the impression INH is mad that reywaS re-flipped, because it made me less wrong.

Marmot, honest answer if you would:

Would you have been as likely to pursue a lynch of reywaS had I not spent the entirety of Night 2 and Day 3 talking about reywaS/Wilgy as the remaining scum via process of elimination?

insertnamehere wrote:

Golden wrote:INH 'something does not have to give'. You can feel free to vote for 3J but you won't convince me to join you. I'm not going to expend effort convincing you that you are wrong.

Yup, this sure is the model of a civilian BTSC partnership, 3J.

Good read.

Well that sells me that you're not in BTSC. Cool.

Otherwise I don't know why this post exists. Am I stupid for positing the theory?

insertnamehere wrote:Night 1: Boomslang and Wilgy 1.0; They were both fairly non-entities, Wilgy being Wilgy, and Boomslang voting for Leetic/Golden 2.0 after Leetic made his one weird post that's still somehow still getting quoted. Neither I couldn't see a bad 3J, Scotty, and Rey team going after.

The reasons you provide to justify your stance are observations, not supporting evidence. Yes, Wilgy was being Wilgy, and yes Boomslang voted for leetic. What does that have to do with whether I'd kill them? I've asserted already that they're both strategically crappy kills, so contest that.

insertnamehere wrote:Night 2: Ricochet and Golden 1.0; Golden's someone I could see being a prime SK target. Someone who was uber-active, uber-opinionated, and widely seen as civ would be hard to contend with. Ricochet makes perfect sense to me as a 3J kill. After getting into numerous disagreements, they sunk into a passive-aggressive weird-ass relationship where Rico would vote with 3J while sarcastically making fun of the reasoning 3J provided. Rico in this game was all bizarre Trump tweets and indignation, someone I could see a 3J baddie team wanting out.

You just said I would kill a guy who had been voting alongside me prior to that. Rico's sarcasm was annoying sure, but if I was bad he would have been playing into my hands. Killing him would be counterproductive. Killing Golden would be suicidal.

insertnamehere wrote:Night 3: DrWilgy and Epignosis; Remember when 3J directly told the SK to get out a baddie or else we all may be screwed? Lookie at what happened. Now, this is a WIFOM minefield, but the scenario that makes the most sense to me is the SK killing Wilgy, and 3J using that as cover to eliminate Epi, a player who was both unpredictable, clever, and against him.

Wait what? You're saying I used the Wilgy kill "as cover"? If I'm bad how the hell would I even know that's coming? Maybe I don't understand your point.

Also, waiting until Epignosis literally said "I don't think you're bad anymore" to kill him is dumb.

insertnamehere wrote:These kills often work out quite well for 3J. At least, half of the time.

You haven't shown that. You've shown nothing, frankly. You're either buried so deep in your tunnel that you've lost sight of reason, or you're pushing my lynch because it's the only option you've left yourself with after bullshitting it all game long.

insertnamehere wrote:Did anyone else notice that Rey's alignment was revealed in much the same way as Scotty's? Meaning that Scotty most likely didn't have some special seemer role.

I think G-Man is just trolling us with these delayed reveals, and there isn't an explicit role-based mechanical reason for them.

Meaning that if 3J was Scotty's teammate, he'd have no idea that Scotty would initially flip civ. So there's no reason for him not to defend Scotty.

The "seemer" detail is barely meaningful. The point is that my attempt to lynch you over Scotty was always a low-probability endeavor, and that means that if I am bad I was intentionally setting myself up to look like a jackass. That's why it ought to make me look better, not worse. It isn't WIFOM, it's common sense.

insertnamehere wrote:"This guy is acting too damn scummy to really be scum."

Golden literally said the opposite of that. I'm acting too damned townie to really be scum.

insertnamehere wrote:Either 3J is playing the worst scum game ever or the worst town game ever. I think he's cannily manipulating you, Golden, and using his thread cachet to spread the suspicion, and quash any legitimate cases against him.

Hell no.

Now, with the reywaS scum flip, I have contributed just as much net positive to the civilian win chance as you have (given your Scotty vote and otherwise town votes). Beyond that, I have provided five times the effort level. This hasn't been my best town game ever, but the moment reywaS re-flipped it suddenly became a good one. Despite playing this entire damned game under the spotlight, constantly dealing with these crap accusations from all directions, I managed to lynch a player I wanted lynched on the most pressured day phase of all. And he was bad. I'm going to pat myself on the damned back for that one.

insertnamehere wrote:He would have voted for literally anyone other than himself. He certainly said enough and set up enough in the thread to basically justify anything. Plus, there's the ol' self-preservation excuse.

False. I said more than once on Day 3 that I was willing to vote for three players -- reywaS, DrWilgy, or you. If the counterwagon to my own had been anyone else, I'd have self-voted. To lynch another townie instead of me would have been a disaster, because it would have just gotten me lynched next. Two for the price of one and probably game over.

I'm going to put Quin on blast because I think the game demands it in a phase that could potentially lose the game. I think Golden has been considering, and now me too, the possibility that Quin has information on MM. This would be discounted by his continued suspicion of other people, but he kind of alleviates that with the notion that he "doesn't think there are 4 scum", and there's also probably a SK on the loose.

This is obviously not something Quin would be allowed to confirm.

What say you to that, Marmot?

That's not an invitation for anyone to piss around though. This is crunch time. Get in here and solve this game or die, y'all.

We have all day tomorrow. I intend to listen and contemplate before I call for someone's head.

Quin wrote:I smack myself in the face with a hot frying pan.

I can dig that, but I'm trying to get a more insightful answer about how you'll behave in this game thread.

Quin wrote:

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:

Quin wrote:Answer what?

His assertion was that the degree of confidence you were exhibiting in your MM read was such that it made you appear genuine in your vendetta. So when a new name pops up which you speak of in a distinctly negative way (INH), it seems a curious thing. How can you be so dead set on lynching MM if you have meaningful doubts about INH? What happened to your suspicion of me?

Marmot is my number one lynch. A scenario where he is off the table does not exist. I also have suspicions for other players, but I will not lynch any of them before the marmot.

I am still suspicious of you. I'm confident that marmot is bad, and since I don't see the possibility of a 4 player mafia team as well as a serial killer, you're off the hook to be bad until such time as I'm proven wrong.

What are your contingencies in the event that Marmot is lynched and flips town?

Hey INH:

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:Golden and INH: reads on each other please.

Quin wrote:Answer what?

His assertion was that the degree of confidence you were exhibiting in your MM read was such that it made you appear genuine in your vendetta. So when a new name pops up which you speak of in a distinctly negative way (INH), it seems a curious thing. How can you be so dead set on lynching MM if you have meaningful doubts about INH? What happened to your suspicion of me?

Quin wrote:

Golden wrote:The fact that quin is even willing to discuss inh as potentially bad, after I asked him earlier 'who would you vote if you couldn't vote marmot' and he said marmot, makes me

Unless we still think there could be two mafia out there, which seems unlikely given balance... it simply makes me peel away the one layer that vexed me about quin which was the idea that he knew the last was marmot and so he didn't need to worry about who else could actually function as scotty teammates.

Is this wrong?

Why don't we all vote marmot and find out?

Why don't you just answer him?

Quin wrote:

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:

Quin wrote:He is not at the top of my rainbow list.

What does that mean?

It means that his Day 2 'Lynch Jay, if town, lynch Quin' contingency is the first thing that comes to mind when I think about him, and it does not sit well with me at all.

How do you feel about his Day 1 vote?

Quin wrote:He is not at the top of my rainbow list.

What does that mean?

Quin wrote:

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:Quin, how do you feel about the Beck-related points that have been raised over the last hour?

I have no opinion. Part of that is bias, and part of that is because Quin 1.0 already questioned Beck about his MP/reywaS vote and came out of it neutral.

How do you feel about INH?

Nice job gang, this game has the most posts for any heist game so far.

Quin, how do you feel about the Beck-related points that have been raised over the last hour?

Metalmarsh89 wrote:(thanks for the defense Jay)

Quin wrote:I'm not sure why you've tried to credit him for this over and over, because it's not sticking.

Also, the implication of this sentence is that you're calling us team mates.

Are you calling us team mates?

Quin wrote:I've been through all of this with you already, so I don't know what else you want me to say. It was a last minute vote weakly justified by Sloonei's goading which painted him as an inevitable lynch. I'm not sure why you've tried to credit him for this over and over, because it's not sticking.


linki: lol. ok.

Sloonei goaded him to vote for INH. So did I. And if Marmot had done as we asked, Scotty could still be alive right now for all we know. I understand that his vote for Scotty doesn't have to make him town. I am just trying to get a better understanding of why you feel it doesn't.

I think to say "Scotty's lynch was inevitable anyway" is patently incorrect. Any lynch that doesn't happen may never happen. The climate of a Mafia game changes constantly. Just look at me.