The Syndicate

Marmot wrote: ↑Fri Jan 26, 2018 9:13 pm
JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Fri Jan 26, 2018 9:12 pm
Marmot wrote: ↑Fri Jan 26, 2018 9:12 pm Jay, speedchuck, don't move your votes.
Why not?
Because I said so.

Do you trust me?

Not especially. I'm on my preferred lynch anyway.

Marmot wrote: ↑Fri Jan 26, 2018 9:12 pm Jay, speedchuck, don't move your votes.

Why not?

[mention]Epignosis[/mention] / [mention]nijuukyugou[/mention]

What happens in the event of a tied tally if Kung Lao isn't around/alive to call it?

Made wrote: ↑Fri Jan 26, 2018 6:25 pm odds that Nutella and Simon are bad? like is there anything there supporting a theory like that?

Two things seem pretty clear:

Tony had information on nutella, likely tracking her into a kill. It's a good lead if not necessarily a slam dunk.

Jack has information on Simon, more conclusive than a blocked kill, either via his role or via his alignment. It's a good lead if not necessarily a slam dunk.

They can both be mafia. There's no reason they can't that I can think of.

We can't logically accuse either side of trying to pull LyLo/MyLo shenanigans because both of these cases have already existed across multiple cycles. I also have my doubts that the numbers bear that out quite yet.

Marmot is such a hater.

So juicy. So saucy.

Marmot wrote: ↑Fri Jan 26, 2018 1:54 pm
JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Fri Jan 26, 2018 12:15 pm Also, Marmot is clearly with the Outworld. I hope it hasn't sounded like I've been kidding about that, because I haven't. I am confident that he is mafia.
I'm with no one you fool.

You don't need me dead. Keep your hands off my dinner.

Why didn't you give a damn about Glorfindel's effort to prevent a lynch of Long Con?

Quin wrote: ↑Fri Jan 26, 2018 1:38 pm Checking in before I go. Hope there's not too big a gap between my replacement.

I'd say you should trust Jack, lapluie and Glorfindel. I'm waffling about adding 3J to that list considering my look at rabbit8's ISO. In who's case I'll say it one more time - he wasn't killed for funsies. I suggest reading him thoroughly.

I agree. Nobody kills a guy one cycle after he replaces into a game if he isn't posing a legitimate threat of some kind. I know many people here suffer from debilitating WIFOM-phobia, but I'd never kill rabbit so quickly into his first game on the site in such a long time whether he was a threat or not. If there's one thing I value more than winning and having fun, it's the long-term capacity of the website to feature a diverse and broad player base. I don't coldly welcome someone back from a long hiatus with a swift night kill. If the mafia team wanted to enjoy my worsening credit in this game, that kill was a mistake. It reminds me of the Phenon game when the mafia killed Nachomomma in his first visit and tried to pin it on me. No way, sir.

rabbit was happy to lynch Simon and nutella so we already see a promising trend there. Other names of interest were speedchuck and Made among others.

speedchuck wrote: ↑Fri Jan 26, 2018 12:25 pm
JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Fri Jan 26, 2018 12:15 pm Also, Marmot is clearly with the Outworld. I hope it hasn't sounded like I've been kidding about that, because I haven't. I am confident that he is mafia.
If you were to choose between lynching him or nutella tomorrow... ?

I'd call their cases comparable and would be open to both.

Also, Marmot is clearly with the Outworld. I hope it hasn't sounded like I've been kidding about that, because I haven't. I am confident that he is mafia.

Another point regarding the importance of wagon control:

If the mafia enjoy vote manipulation or empowerment and Dave and/or Dom are not among them, the disadvantage to the civilians is immense. The ability to maintain control over a lynch is what allows a game to continue, and if either of those two is a non-voting civilian then the game cannot be won unless the remaining civilians vote together every single time. Even that may not be enough. These lines in the sand can only work if both wagons are on mafia members. I think that's where we are now, but keep it in mind moving forward if you can't sort it out this time.

Folks seem to think I have skirted the rules which is irritating me.

Civilians claim to be civilians. This is a claim of alignment. I claimed an alignment. I claimed nothing more. Cut it out.

If y'all want to lynch Marmot I'm game.

Marmot wrote: ↑Thu Jan 25, 2018 10:05 pm Lol

The logic here is flawless.

What Marmot? What?

Also, if folks want more conclusive evidence against Simon it already exists in yesterday’s poll shenanigans. I have little doubt that the mafia team coordinated he and I being removed together to encourage the perception that we’re teammates.

Either he gets lynched and I am wrongly lynched next, or I get lynched first and the perceived connection is severed (and he walks away looking better).

Has nutella posted this phase?

The reasons to read nutella and Simon as mafia are very similar.

It is impossible to comprehend a good reason to read Simon as a civilian at face value for his content.

It is perfectly reasonable to read nutella as a civilian at face value for her content.

Don’t understand the huge divide here.

Oh well. I think it’s more likely than not everyone is right and these wagons are mafia-mafia.

lapluie wrote: ↑Thu Jan 25, 2018 5:01 pm
JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Thu Jan 25, 2018 4:50 pm lapluie, can you explain why you feel Simon is a civilian?
He's always been on the chopping bloc because he's just looking sus to eveyone for inactivity, somebody tell me one post hes made that he's made it seem like he's mafia???.is there any???
Maybe he is just bad at playing the game & doesn't care for what his role is so he chooses to not to participate much. The dude has only 9 posts.
From what tony has provided us on his posts hes not 100% certain about simon like he is for nutella. Correct me if I'm wrong. The percentage chart indicated how Simon followed a train lynch but I don't remember who it was.
Tony insisted we lynch Nutella after his death, he didn't say simon at the time so that alone makes me think tony was unsure about simon. & we dnot wanna repeat a lynch with little to no information & end up losing.

I think it's fair to believe that Tony wanted nutella lynched more than Simon despite his percentages. I'd even agree with that.

Would you agree, however, that the "case against Simon" is not that "he is inactive"? Nobody is saying that. Where have you seen that case being made? I'd be interested in seeing that if it exists, because that'd smell like bussing to me. Instead, I want you to consider that Jack has information on Simon just like Tony had information on nutella. Jack cannot confirm or deny this because the rules don't allow him to, but that's where we are. There's no reason for him to push the lynch this hard and this long if he doesn't know something. It's not about Simon being inactive. It's about Simon being exposed either by role information or by his teammate's desire to bus him. Isn't that a logical conclusion?

[mention]lapluie[/mention], can you explain why you feel Simon is a civilian?

Elohcin wrote: ↑Thu Jan 25, 2018 4:44 pm but nothing is certain. You are not in Lap's brain. She could be Simon's teammate and defending the hel out of him because he has a VERY useful role.

No role is so great that it's worth exposing 40% of a mafia team to save.

You're right that nothing is certain, but I'm going to follow my reason on this one.

Indeed, if Simon were to flip civilian that would make me think two or five times about lapluie given TMI potential.

speedchuck wrote: ↑Thu Jan 25, 2018 4:37 pm
JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Thu Jan 25, 2018 4:11 pm One thing that is blindingly clear:

If Simon is mafia then lapluie is not.
I want to hear more about this.

There is no good reason for a mafia member to defend Simon this hard if he is a teammate. It's nonsense. One is forced to invoke the most intense of WIFOM to turn that into a reality, and I think that'd be quite weak.

Mafia members are more likely to be eager to bus their single-digit posting teammate than protect him at all costs. Civilians tend to be clueless about this kind of thing and will by their very nature surround the defender post-mafia-flip with foam dribbling from their mouths waiting to pounce. Simons teammates know that.

The only alternative to consider would be: this is LyLo right now, nutella is a civilian, and lapluie is going for the win. I find that highly unlikely given the numbers.

lapluie wrote: ↑Thu Jan 25, 2018 4:31 pm Lol ofcourse Elohcin votes simon, omy to save her mafia partner. I always knew it & dunya did say to keep an eye on her

Can't Simon and nutella both be mafia?

Elohcin wrote: ↑Thu Jan 25, 2018 4:29 pm And if the latter is correct, then Jack is bad too? Just clarifying your thoughts.

Yes. If.

I would imagine Tony's perceptions looked something like this:

Simon -- has done absolutely nothing in this game to warrant civilian credit, and it looks like there might be dirt on him. Strong lead.

nutella -- I tracked her into a kill. There's some potential for shenanigans, but it's still a strong lead.

He'd probably support either of these lynches.

One thing that is blindingly clear:

If Simon is mafia then lapluie is not.

I can understand the nutella votes. Tony's flip implicates her significantly. Okay.

I do think however that anyone who does not want to lynch Simon or otherwise prefers some other option should say why they feel that way. I can understand Jack's frustration on the grounds that as far as I can tell, nobody actually trusts Simon. So why not lynch him? State it clearly. The silence on the matter is bizarre.

I think we're fine. I think there's a very solid chance that all three of these people are mafia, and that's 60% of the team:

Simon, nutella, Marmot

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Mon Jan 22, 2018 12:50 am So with the removals Simon’s chance of being mafia goes way up but he’s also unlynchable today. Same with JJJ (who’s in murkier waters).

Percentage rainbow, just so you guys can see my thoughts:
Simon 95
Nutella 85

lapluie wrote: ↑Thu Jan 25, 2018 12:24 pm
JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Thu Jan 25, 2018 12:14 pm I do think that if we assume there is information working against both Simon and nutella, then we're left to judge their content apart from that. I have no reason to give Simon civilian credit. If it wasn't for TSP's flip, I might actually read nutella as a civilian right now. If she is mafia then she has worn the mask very well in this game.
..wait what you read nutella civilian? you're joking right

I would if it wasn't for the likelihood that TSP tracked her into a kill target. That is enough to make her a valid suspect and at this point I wouldn't object to lynching her. I'm just not sure she's immensely better a choice than Simon who I think can be cased in essentially the same way.

I do think that if we assume there is information working against both Simon and nutella, then we're left to judge their content apart from that. I have no reason to give Simon civilian credit. If it wasn't for TSP's flip, I might actually read nutella as a civilian right now. If she is mafia then she has worn the mask very well in this game.

lapluie wrote: ↑Thu Jan 25, 2018 12:12 pm Its best to lynch mafia players who are still active now, rather than an inactive player imo.

That's a fair argument. I would consider them both to be active at least in that they can send night actions. You'll note that Simon voted late in the last day phase, and for you.

lapluie wrote: ↑Thu Jan 25, 2018 12:09 pm
JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Thu Jan 25, 2018 12:07 pm
lapluie wrote: ↑Thu Jan 25, 2018 12:06 pm You guys don't actually think Simon's is bad, youre voting him off because he's inactive, there's no real evidence that he's mafia, the real evidence is in nutella.
Tony was very adamant in nutella being bad.
But I feel like I'm talking to myself now & nobody's listening so ...rip....
What if there's very similar evidence against Simon as there is against nutella?
There is no case against simon, I for one am certain simon isn't bad, there's no reason to even lynch him. He's inactive!!!!

=/

I'm surprised you're certain that he isn't bad. I could understand being unconvinced.

How about this: if you consider the way TSP tried to voice his suspicion of nutella and lynch her -- would you say that Jack has done the same thing (or something close) with Simon?

lapluie wrote: ↑Thu Jan 25, 2018 12:06 pm You guys don't actually think Simon's is bad, youre voting him off because he's inactive, there's no real evidence that he's mafia, the real evidence is in nutella.
Tony was very adamant in nutella being bad.
But I feel like I'm talking to myself now & nobody's listening so ...rip....

What if there's very similar evidence against Simon as there is against nutella?

Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Wed Jan 24, 2018 11:52 pmJaggedJimmyJay

This is like "how was your night?" There be reasons.

I can't tell if you're actually asking me that or qualifying your own decisions today.

Glorfindel, can you summarize your trepidation with a Simon lynch?

lapluie wrote: ↑Wed Jan 24, 2018 11:02 pm @JaggedJimmyJay what do you think about tonys case for nutella? Before he died he said she's mafia & he flipped jade so he was very certain she was bad. Thoughts? Also for @speedchuck & the rest who are voting simon or are considering it

I thought his substantive case was uninspiring, but it's pretty evident now that he at least thought he had solid information implicating nutella. That alone placed her in my POE pool -- otherwise I might have read her as a civilian. She is a valid suspect if not necessary a 100% slam dunk.

lapluie wrote: ↑Wed Jan 24, 2018 11:00 pm Hang on a second..why are we voting simon again?

I think MacDougall's theory that Jack was bussing Simon was merited enough that one of two scenarios is true:

~ Jack knows something about Simon via honest means, and it's more conclusive than a blocked kill.

~ Jack is bussing Simon.

If the former is true, that's a good lead on Simon being mafia. If the latter is true, Simon is definitely mafia.

Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Wed Jan 24, 2018 10:19 pm JaggedJimmyJay

Why do you think a neutral in this game would claim?

I can't speak for everybody. I don't think it's likely to come from a "this is how I'm going to win this game" mindset though. It's not really a beneficial move in any alignment. So the explanation is more sensibly: boredom. Playing in multiple games with a ton of player overlap while Mafia burnout is already quickly mounting is a monotonous headache. One has to find ways to make it fun again, even if it means doing weird shit that doesn't necessarily help win the game. After all, an indy is alone, and has nobody counting on him/her. There's beautiful freedom in that.

Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Wed Jan 24, 2018 10:19 pmWhat do you think of Speed's analysis on your claim and Marmot's claim yesterday? That is, how good was the analysis and what does it do for your Speedchuck read?

I think he was on the right track at least in that he recognized 3P is more likely in a vacuum than mafia for me. I think that should be pretty obvious, but part of the intrigue here is to explore civilian paranoia. I am leaning toward a mafia Marmot now though for reasons other than his counterclaim. I don't blame speedchuck for disagreeing on that specific point. The worst thing for speedchuck regarding this conversation alone would be that he dedicated his time and energy to sorting out claims of at least one person who isn't relevant to the civilian win condition. That's a reach I grant.

Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Wed Jan 24, 2018 10:19 pmAt this point, I'm not even sure if I should even ask you for reads. Whatever.

You should. Nobody here is obligated to trust the reads I provide, but I am still happy to do so if there is a demand. Believe me or don't, but I don't want this game to end with the civilians left splattered and flattened all over the pavement. That's not ideal. The vast majority of the hunting and solving I have done in this thread has been the genuine sort, and I have reasons to continue doing that.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Wed Jan 24, 2018 10:05 pm speedchuck was made aware of your reputation early in the game. If he was here and did not heed your yells to save LC, that isn't great. Marmot knows you well as a long-time veteran of the site. If he was here and did not heed your yells to save LC, that's even worse. I'll have to go back and check whether either of them were present at the very end.

speedchuck's last post prior to the deadline came a few hours ahead. He posted pretty soon after the TSP flip though. It's possible he was present, but he didn't post.

Marmot wrote: ↑Tue Jan 23, 2018 9:34 pm Quick take.

Long Con has been apathetic all day, and eventually voted lap for self-preservation.

lap is giving what looks like a sincere defence, but is suddenly willing to lynch speedchuck despite not having any reason to. I get self-preservation, but guilting another player into lynching one of their scum-reads.

Marmot was here at EOD. He acknowledged Glorfindel's yelling but did not heed it. He kept asking "why", which is a bit obtuse I think given the rules of the game.

Spoiler: show

Not a good look.

Glorfindel wrote: ↑Wed Jan 24, 2018 10:00 pm Very well, Jay - you have my attention.

Let's consider the LC wagon:

lapluie, speedchuck, Kylemii, Marmot

The first one we've discussed. Very well. Kylemii was just killed.

speedchuck was made aware of your reputation early in the game. If he was here and did not heed your yells to save LC, that isn't great. Marmot knows you well as a long-time veteran of the site. If he was here and did not heed your yells to save LC, that's even worse. I'll have to go back and check whether either of them were present at the very end.

Glorfindel wrote: ↑Wed Jan 24, 2018 10:02 pm Kyle was Outworld?

What makes you think so?

Glorfindel wrote: ↑Wed Jan 24, 2018 7:05 pm If by your last question Jay, you mean someone else that I knew for certain to be a Townie, no.

I can understand why you'd be perturbed given your strong civilian read on Long Con. Whatever brings you to that read, consider how others are going to approach Long Con without the same rationale in mind that you have in yours. He hasn't done very much in this game. He's flown under the radar. I think it's fair to suspect him in the absence of special insight. In lapluie's case, I am pretty sure Long Con voted for her in a tally which could have easily destroyed her. He moved to TSP in the end, but for a long stretch he was on lapluie. Play devil's advocate with yourself and assume lapluie is a civilian -- how is she likely to respond when an under-the-radar Long Con is trying to get her lynched close to EOD?

Now, consider your own role in this incident. You were loudly shouting for LC to be saved. You didn't want that lynch. Anyone who knows you well would be well-advised to listen to you on that front. Does lapluie know you? Does your reputation hold any weight with a player who has never played with you before? What about the LC voters who do know you and still ignored you? Would you agree that there is a more obvious problem with that picture?

Glorfindel wrote: ↑Wed Jan 24, 2018 6:48 pm It frankly astounds me that anyone could read Lapluie’s ISO and deduce from that she is anywhere near Town.

I think Lapluie is an easy player to read as mafia given a certain mindset, and that mindset is one I tend to avoid. It is a mindset that focuses solely on wording and on the direction of suspicions, but it doesn't regard context or personality enough. Consider the two people who know lapluie best in this game: Sloonei and Quin. The former strongly read her as a civilian, having played with her considerably more than any other Syndicateers. The latter harbors some suspicion, but not with a tone of confidence or assurance. Quin can fathom a civilian in lapluie's shoes too.

There are a few factors which point me to a civilian read on lapluie:

1. Consider her behavior during the Day of Curses. In her first game on the site during the second day phase, as far as she could tell everyone lost their minds and stopped trying to make sense. She wanted to leave the game because of that. I don't think that was fake. I think that's the look of a civilian in a challenging new environment with no idea how to proceed.

2. She was wrong about dunya, and applied that mistake as she proceeded into the next lynch. I believe she said that she didn't like it when people left legacy messages like "if you lynch me, lynch Player X next" or some such, because those kinds of posts made her feel less confident about her votes. That was a "thinking aloud" type comment which resonated with me and I thought looked authentic.

3. Despite being in this intimidating environment with a bunch of players who are not at all like what she's used to (as Sloonei/Quin have suggested), she has found the courage and the tenacity to amass around 200 posts. She is trying her best to be a productive part of this team, and I don't think that's nearly as easy to do if she draws a mafia role.

Glorfindel wrote: ↑Wed Jan 24, 2018 6:48 pmYou said this of Jack:
JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Wed Jan 24, 2018 1:09 pm Jack is red because he continues to push dubious cases with a tone of exaggerated assertiveness while resisting other dubious cases with the same tone, and I question the legitimacy of any civilian mindset he has attempted to portray.
Precisely the same thing could be said of Lapluie (only I think it applies more so in her case).

I think Jack's content looks considerably less authentic at face value, and I see a lot more capacity for manipulation than I do with lapluie. She is shooting from the hip. He is coordinating and directing.

Riddle me this, Glorfindel: do you think you'd feel so strongly about her right now if her lynch target last phase had been someone other than Long Con?

I sure did. What is your greatest disagreement?

Kylemii wrote: ↑Wed Jan 24, 2018 5:57 pm well... I hope so.

to put it plainly, it depends entirely on whether your loner hint was the truth or a lie.

one of those things makes you an obvious threat, the other makes you a potential ally, even if it's just temporary.

i'm confident that your actions moving forward will reveal which is the case.

You just concern yourself with your win condition. There's little choice in the matter at this point. It's likely that all six corpses in this game were civilians, meaning the present ratio is likely 10 vs. 5 [with 1 and 1]. A successful kill of another civilian leaves it a 9 civilians and 5 mafia, which might be one mislynch shy of an elimination phase (depending upon numerous uncontrolled/unseen variables).

I'm happy to help if anyone is interested in listening to me, because it doesn't serve me well if this ass-whooping continues unchecked. Thankfully for everyone short of the mafia, a Simon lynch looming is promising and will serve as a breath of air.

Kylemii wrote: ↑Wed Jan 24, 2018 2:59 pm I'm not complaining at all. To put it lightly, I don't fully trust that Jay has my best interest at heart, so my expectations are already pretty low.

Your best interests?

Do we have a shared interest?

You're also one of the very few, Kyle, who made a lick of sense in your effort to parse out why I'd claim indy.

Kylemii wrote: ↑Wed Jan 24, 2018 2:18 pm why am i green? what makes me more of an overt civ read than anyone else

You look and sound like every other civilian Kyle I've ever seen.

Marmot wrote: ↑Wed Jan 24, 2018 1:15 pm I was hoping to make like @Ricochet and retire from mafia.

We have to find ways to keep things fun and interesting, especially with two games going at once. I think we're on the right track toward that end, rodent spirit animal. You post whatever the hell you want.

I forgot the poor Marmot. He'd be in the massive POE pool.

Jack is red because he continues to push dubious cases with a tone of exaggerated assertiveness while resisting other dubious cases with the same tone, and I question the legitimacy of any civilian mindset he has attempted to portray. It's a revival of early game suspicions in part inspired by our dear departed Macs and rabbits and amplified by his handling of our indy claims.

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