The Syndicate

Let's work out the numbers so we can be more comfortable in our POE efforts.

The game began with 24 players. Given typical ratios, that is likely to amount to 5 or 6 mafia members. Considering the presence if civilian vigilante(s) as we've seen it, the safer assumption is probably 6.

If you accept that premise, we began at 18 vs. 6. Independents could influence this number, though I don't think there's been any evidence to indicate that one exists. It's not in the role list, and that could be interpreted as a bastardization or a host lie (as DDL has assured us is not the case). This isn't a slam dunk, but it's where I lean. So, 18 vs. 6.

We have 16 players alive. 2 mafia members are dead, and one more is confirmed among us. That leaves us with a theoretical present ratio of 12 vs. 4. In a standard one-lynch/one-kill progression, that would leave us with three mislynches until a MyLo phase at 6 vs. 4. Obviously, that standard progression has not existed to this point and is highly unlikely to exist, so we will have to continually monitor the numbers as they adapt.

If INH is successfully lynched today, we'd enter the night at 12 vs. 3. Worst-case scenario given what we've seen so far, three civilians are killed in the night phase (one by the mafia team, one by a vigilante, and one more by whatever other means). That'd result in 9 vs. 3 the following day. That's the worst scenario (and it still isn't terrible). If a mafioso again dies during the night phase, the dynamic is much brighter for the civilians. We have a clear lead right now, but complacency will murder us if we allow it to.

I think a good POE number to aspire to right now is then 6. If you can contain an entire mafia team of four members (including INH) within your six, then we should have enough mislynches available to win the game. It's a team effort though, so get to it. If anyone sees a flaw in my math or my logic, lemme have it.

insertnamehere wrote: ↑Wed Nov 07, 2018 2:14 pm how's everyone doing today?

I'm so damned tired. I'm in a lab until well into the AM hours all the time now, and it all feels so hollow and pointless.

Lazy "rainbow" reflecting how players looked in their Long Con interactions.

Colin ++
nutella ++

Lunalee +
MacDougall +
poutanko +

Quin 0
karavalenge 0
sprityo 0

Jackofhearts2005 -

speedzeye --
Slowner --

I didn't feel like bothering for DharmaHelper or timmer. If you think they're bad, tell me about it. If not, build your POE.

If my six players not featuring a plus sign contains the mafia, then I think we're fine.

[mention]Dragon D. Luffy[/mention], if an Expecto Patronum is redirected, does this only impact one of the intended targets or both (i.e., does one target remain where it was intended, or do both targets dissolve into a single redirection point)?

speedchuck wrote: ↑Wed Nov 07, 2018 1:57 pm Quin complains, says he Patronummed Long Con.

Do you mean he patronummed timmer?

So, who wants to summarize the night action confusion being discussed at length? If one isn't there to follow the conversation live, it's difficult to follow at all.

Give me the details step by step like I am four, and I will decide whether I care.

speedchuck wrote: ↑Wed Nov 07, 2018 1:18 pm
JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Wed Nov 07, 2018 1:11 pm
speedchuck wrote: ↑Wed Nov 07, 2018 1:01 pm
poutanko wrote: ↑Wed Nov 07, 2018 12:52 pm What made you think maf won't do anything to Timmer other than trying to kill him? They might still block or redirect him.
I don't know why you are sitting here criticizing my choice. Really feels like you're attacking my logic rather than my alignment.

There was a town kill night one even though Timmer was roleblocked. The whole vig game and mafia targeting game doesn't revolve around Timmer and those that visit Timmer. Long Con was an immediate interest and priority.
I harbor the same suspicion poutanko has voiced. Watching Long Con seems to bear more potential for mafia gains than civilian gains.
I'll tell you what I told her then. Shut up and lynch me. If the purpose of this observation is to validate a scumread on me, I don't want to hear it. I have a cop check over my head, and you don't need further justification.

So stop trying to shame me over my town play, which effing worked exactly as I wanted it to.

A quote from Insanity mafia, translated from morse code
i am getting really freaking tired of people, every game, saying i'm either scum or (stupid/inattentive/not trying). i can mark three times this has happened this year. since i'm town every time it happens, it comes off as an insult. i've never been told i was playing stupidly or ignorantly as scum. but here we are again, in the same position, with me being insulted for my crappy town play. maybe i should just replace out each time i roll town. have a 'screw it' meta.
I'm really, REALLY getting tired of this crap. It happens nearly every game. "You wouldn't do this as town because the smarter choice would be to do X, Y, or Z." Screw off. I will scumhunt how I want to scumhunt.

I have no interest in insulting you. I didn't even say that you did something stupid. There are civilian motives for watching Long Con. There are also mafia motives, and those stand out to me. Obviously if the red check alone were sufficient I wouldn't be having this conversation.

Chill beans.

Long Con and lapluie/sprityo

Long Con's stuff

Spoiler: show

I asked the general population about the replacements, and LC responded. This is a statement of truth and means little.

Spoiler: show

When I was trying to off sprityo, LC half-defended him by acknowledging again that he'd said nothing. The follow-up question about lapluie there is goofy since she had also said nothing. There are two easy ways to read into this (LC defended his teammate, der der / LC just wanted to make a post and asking about why I want to destroy a lurker is a very easy post to make). I am inclined to read nothing from this.

Middle green in the WIFOM rainbow. Raise your hand if you care! *hand stays down*

sprityo's stuff

The two of them exchanged some OT green text which I don't care about. Check yourself if you do.

~~~

Conclusion

Unsurprisingly there's close to nothing here. sprityo remains in the POE pool by default.

speedchuck wrote: ↑Wed Nov 07, 2018 1:01 pm
poutanko wrote: ↑Wed Nov 07, 2018 12:52 pm What made you think maf won't do anything to Timmer other than trying to kill him? They might still block or redirect him.
I don't know why you are sitting here criticizing my choice. Really feels like you're attacking my logic rather than my alignment.

There was a town kill night one even though Timmer was roleblocked. The whole vig game and mafia targeting game doesn't revolve around Timmer and those that visit Timmer. Long Con was an immediate interest and priority.

I harbor the same suspicion poutanko has voiced. Watching Long Con seems to bear more potential for mafia gains than civilian gains.

Long Con and karavalenge

Long Con's stuff

Spoiler: show

We got jokes.

Spoiler: show

The first portion of this exchange shows Long Con kinda sorta picking on the newcomer given that they couldn't have known about Epi's style. Decent look. The last two posts though bear a certain neutrality and calmness that strikes me as awkward.

Spoiler: show

Long Con extended from Epi's "juliets is not my teammate" thing and built another non-team dynamic shown above. I have colored the players included by their confirmed alignments (DharmaHelper and karavalenge unconfirmed as yellow, and remember that this was speedchuck 1.0). If Long Con crammed a teammate in this pile, there are only two options.

Spoiler: show

Long Con gives kara more crap for being defensive. These are easy accusations to hurl and could represent opportunism.

Spoiler: show

If Owner/Sloonei is a mafioso, karavalenge looks like a civilian here. Long Con tried to glue them together.

Spoiler: show

This I like less. Long Con voted Lunalee (after laboriously going over her posts to justify that vote), but felt the need to declare that he could also put it on kara. Meh.

Middle green in the WIFOM rainbow. Deauxnt Curr

karavalenge's stuff

Response to the Owner thing, this doesn't bother me.

Spoiler: show

During the Day 3 EOD sequence kara was present and moving their vote, but not saying much. That vote went to Long Con first and then finished on Glorfindel. Explained here. The rationale cited was essentially that Long Con was more suspicious than Colin when they were the lead wagons. Then, Glorfindel was more suspicious than Long Con when they were the lead wagons at the very end. I would have really preferred to see kara making posts at this point, because one cannot help but be concerned about shady activities with these late vote motions.

~~~

Conclusion

This is probably the most mixed bag so far in the Long Con interactions. The point that speaks loudest to me is LC's effort to associate kara with Owner, but what that means would hinge upon Owner[Sloonei]'s alignment.

Why did you watch the people that you watched, [mention]speedchuck[/mention]?

Sloonei wrote: ↑Wed Nov 07, 2018 2:58 am For what it’s worth I asked my questions about Long Con after the day had ended. He was dead before there was anything I could have done with the line of questioning.

hunt

I was hoping to finish these tonight, but I am too tired. Bye.

Long Con and Jackofhearts2005

Long Con's stuff

Spoiler: show

Nothing.

Spoiler: show

Just a big ol' ballsack.

More nothing.

Spoiler: show

LC provided this non-read take on Jack's meta along with Mac and TH. It means little to me.

Top green in the WIFOM rainbow. Dön't câre

Jack's stuff

Spoiler: show

I didn't even notice the vote before when I posted this. It's a thing. I kinda barely care in a negative way, but only kinda barely.

Spoiler: show

[mention]Jackofhearts2005[/mention], it appears we disagree on this dynamic. Can you state your present feelings and expand?

They talked a bit about Sloonei "townslipping" and it went nowhere.

~~~

Conclusion

The points made here aren't terribly moving, but they are a slight negative for Jack.

Long Con and Quin

Long Con's stuff

Spoiler: show

Nothing.

There are a lot of incidental mentions of Quin on page 2 of Long Con's ISO that I have ignored, because none of them interest me. Click if you care.

Middle green in the WIFOM rainbow. *spells out with armpit farts* d-o-n-t-c-a-r-e

Spoiler: show

This whole thing with Colin was silly, so I give Quin a meh for contributing to it alongside Long Con.

Spoiler: show

Quin stood in LC's court when he got shit from nutella. He is assertive in his language, but doesn't explain himself much.

~~~

Conclusion

Purely by interactions I have no reason to give Quin credit. Obviously the night action shit y'all are babbling about is of some relevance. I have paid very little attention to that to this point, so shrug.

Long Con and nutella

Long Con's stuff

PLAYER SALAD! Long Con reacts with enthusiasm to nutella pointing out potential salad from Owner. He did the same thing when I pointed it out re: INH. Decent look.

Spoiler: show

Long Con prodded me for my read on nutella. I responded quickly and he did nothing with it. That would suggest he didn't actually care about my read on nutella, which would be nice for her. Faker or not, he would likely have some vested interest in how I read his teammate.

Spoiler: show

As I mentioned in the Luna review, LC fled from his Luna vote to an INH vote when he observed how nutella handled INH's own Luna vote. He was shook, cuz nutella hella scary. Good look.

Spoiler: show

Nice silly tinfoil you silly civilian, what a silly read you have there, why don't you check out these points against your tinfoil you goof?

Good.

It was important to LC that nutella understand what he was doing with Luna. It looks like he was talking to someone who cannot understand more deeply what he intended, as in there's no BTSC.

Spoiler: show

speed 2.0's suspicion of nutella is "healthy", because...? K.

Spoiler: show

I think you just accidentally revealed nutella is Civ.

Lengthy chatter about Colin and rezgate. Don't care.

Top green in the WIFOM rainbow. *deeeeeep breath* Don't care.

nutella's stuff

LC is town in her D2 GTHs. Oh well.

Spoiler: show

This question is a bit softball.

Long Con and others are ON NOTICE on D3. k

lol *clap emoji*

I don't feel like continuing this. I have plenty.

~~~

Conclusion

nutella emerges looking stupendous.

Long Con and MacDougall

Long Con's stuff

Spoiler: show

k

Spoiler: show

LC was firmly planted in both camps simultaneously during the Bullzeye D1 vote saga, and Mac got one gripe in the midst of it. Don't care. More. More.

We have Limp Bizkit banter in my Mafia game thread. Burn them both.

They have a brief spat about Mac calling nutella arrogant. This is silly slip type stuff and I think it's a decent look for Mac. LC tried to capitalize on an oopsie.

Spoiler: show

LC and Mac chattered about this nonsense for a bit. Don't care. There are numerous other related posts I am not going to copy/paste.

Light orange in the WIFOM rainbow. The other two people colored that way are civilians, so...

MacDougall's stuff

Spoiler: show

This right here is that one post where Mac's read on LC was "scrotum".

Spoiler: show

k

Spoiler: show

Word.

Mac includes LC among a few players that he feels are maintaining some presence without the necessary effort to show for it. True enough, though all the names included here dilutes the value of the post in this context.

Bottom tier of suspicion in a D3 colorless rainbow. Word.

Mac specifically asked us to remember the nutella/arrogant exchange. Hey Mac! I remembered it!

~~~

Conclusion

As always for a player with generally short posts, drawing concrete conclusions is difficult. On balance though I'll give Mac a point or two.

Long Con and Lunalee

Long Con's stuff

Spoiler: show

LC weighed in on some D1 dichotomy he created between Luna and TH and ends up suggesting the two of them could be distancing from each other. This is made-up-shit of the highest order such that any strategy beyond "make other people look bad" seems to have no role -- which would be decent for Luna.

*clicks page 2 of LC's posts and searches Luna, finds 64 results*

Huge post in which LC reviews Luna. This seems to go nowhere, as a concrete stance never arrives other than a single instance of LC calling one of her posts "solid" and a single diss about her reads on Epi and Owner. Again, LC is using Luna as a springboard to generate fake stuff to look like he's hunting. I think it's a nice look on her, because most bad guys aren't going to use their own teammates for this purpose. WIFOM though, etc, blah blah.

Spoiler: show

The review didn't make Luna seem very orange to me. Convenient.

Spoiler: show

Long Con voted Luna on D2. His final vote ended up on INH. In conjunction with the content that preceded it, I think LC felt in the moment that this was his most justified vote -- and he definitely worked hard to ensure it'd be that way.

Spoiler: show

He peeled off of that vote in response to nutella's comments here, when she was critical of INH for his own handling of Luna. It may be important here that LC and INH were teammates, and when LC saw his teammate drawing nutella's ire for going after Luna LC felt the need to be different from INH. Again, I think this all works nicely for Luna. I grant that there are a lot of moving pieces, so I hope others will chime in with disagreements if they have them.

Spoiler: show

LC uses Luna's defenses of me to prod nutella, and it kind of has a patronizing tone (nutella's suspicion of me is cute but unfounded, look here at Lunalee's important points to the contrary). This may not mean much, but I think there's potential for others to take more from it.

Lengthy exchange with nutella about Luna -- nutella made a lot of the same assertions I am making right now about LC in this dialogue, and LC tried to explain himself thoroughly. This might say more about nutella, but it continues to fit within a civilian-Luna narrative.

Middle green in the WIFOM rainbow. Don't care.

Lunalee's stuff

She colors LC middle green in her D3 rainbow after having initially forgotten to include him. I barely care.

Spoiler: show

Oops. If she's his teammate she sure didn't try very hard to sell this point.

timmer voiced concerns about LC and Luna supported them (in this post bringing LC's relevant post back into the dialogue. This doesn't mean much to me given that it originated with timmer.

Spoiler: show

This kinda makes me feel icky. It's after LC's failed lynch, so take it with whatever grains of salt you feel appropriate.

~~~

Conclusion

Overall this is positive for Lunalee. Only the last post there makes me wonder.

Long Con wrote: ↑Fri Nov 02, 2018 10:24 am I'm working today, soon, until too close to the lynch. There are a few cases I'd like to reread, the Soneji one looks all right, but it didn't blow my skirt up on the first read. I think Bullzeye is off the table now with a strong vote of confidence from Timmer. Is that something folks agree with? He said 'no cop' but who really knows, that's just what a cop would say. :hahah:

I saw this while compiling another interaction, and I think I missed it in my LC/speedzeye review. So here you go. You don't need more of my takes. Give me your takes. What does this say to you, dear reader?

speedchuck's reaction to being red checked doesn't look great to me. Total, immediate rationality as he displayed is hard to believe. I'd expect at least some brief period of combat to stem from a false red check.

Long Con and poutanko

Long Con's stuff

Spoiler: show

Nothing.

Spoiler: show

When LC tossed Owner the aforementioned softballs, it involved prodding her to talk about poutanko's meta commentary. I kinda get the impression poutanko is in this dialogue incidentally, and that LC didn't have a specific design for her in referencing her material. It's a small point, but it's something.

Spoiler: show

This communication is pretty low-pressure. Part of me feels this looks like LC explaining himself to someone who doesn't already have the answers (which would be good for poutanko), but I am not quite willing to take that leap. There's not enough here.

Spoiler: show

This is pretty much the same.

Middle green in the WIFOM list. Don't care.

poutanko's stuff

Spoiler: show

poutanko gave LC some crap for his handling of Bullzeye's D1 vote. It looks okay I guess.

Spoiler: show

When I asked poutanko for most and least trusted players, he included LC among the latter group (still citing the Bullzeye stuff). Sure.

~~~

Conclusion

As you can see by the boring text sizes, none of this makes me feel much of anything. If I force myself to take a stance, I'll say it's better than nothing for poutanko.

DharmaHelper wrote: ↑Wed Nov 07, 2018 1:10 am
JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Wed Nov 07, 2018 1:08 am
DharmaHelper wrote: ↑Wed Nov 07, 2018 1:04 am Hey you know what would be cool would be if the fallback wagon was Sloonei and not Speedchuck.
I think they both look bad, and one of them is red checked. What do you think of speedchuck?
I could dial in on him in a read tomorrow. He's Bullzeye now, right?

That's him.

DharmaHelper wrote: ↑Wed Nov 07, 2018 1:04 am Hey you know what would be cool would be if the fallback wagon was Sloonei and not Speedchuck.

I think they both look bad, and one of them is red checked. What do you think of speedchuck?

Long Con and Owner/Sloonei

Long Con's stuff

Long Con's support of nutella's observation of salad came at Owner's expense. One must note that LC handed my salad accusation against INH in much the same way.

Spoiler: show

Irrelevant to me, but maybe y'all care.

Spoiler: show

In response to the discussion of Owner potentially slipping, LC stood in her defense. I don't think this is necessarily some terrible thing, as TMI is as believable as protection of a teammate. This in isolation doesn't move me.

Spoiler: show

LC tossed Owner a couple of softball questions here. Not my favorite thing. This just provides her with something to talk about that wouldn't be likely to amount to much of anything.

Spoiler: show

LC went to a lot of trouble to explain this vote for TH. He was concrete in saying he didn't believe Owner to be bad, and I can't really tell how he [pretended to] arrive at this conclusion. Pursuing a hallow might be an authentic thing, but given his own posts prior to this I think it looks like he wants to vote Not Owner. So that's not ideal for present-day Sloonei.

Spoiler: show

This piggy-back is rather blatant. Barely a decent look for Sloonei.

LC mentions Owner numerous times in this post, but incidentally so as he is taking to/about Luna. I don't know what to do with this. I will do nothing.

Spoiler: show

This one kind of bears the appearance of TMI, but not in the usual way. It looks like Long Con knows Owner is scum and is setting up karavalenge to look like a butt if she gets lynched.

Spoiler: show

dum

LC places Sloonei at orange in his WIFOM rainbow. Perhaps to my own detriment, I actually find this interesting. LC had been giving Slowner a civilian nod for much of the game, and this represents a turn. I wonder if he WIFOMed himself in his effort to WIFOM everyone else, because there's no need or reason for this placement. That would suggest that some unseen strategy underlies it, and that's not a good thing.

Owner/Sloonei's stuff

Spoiler: show

"Unrelated" is right. Yikes. Check the post in its full context to see why I find it to be yikes.

Spoiler: show

Fair questions for a replacement trying to get a clue. I don't know that Sloonei did anything with them though. He ended up voting for Jack and was the only one to do so. That isn't not Sloonei-like.

~~~

Conclusion

This is a net negative for Slowner.

Long Con and Bullzeye/speedchuck

Long Con's stuff

Spoiler: show

Immediately after giving timmer crud for a hedgey post, LC hedges on his Bullzeye read. Eh.

Spoiler: show

AKA "Bullzeye, get in here and respond."

Spoiler: show

LC gave speedchuck 2.0 a green read because he named a couple suspects and pointed at player salad. This isn't my favorite thing re: speedchuck, as it's a concerted effort by LC to give him civilian credit that doesn't really occur often in his posts.

Spoiler: show

Idle chatter. Meh.

Green in the LC WIFOM legacy. Don't care about this.

Bullzeye/speedchuck's stuff

Spoiler: show

Ew. Feels like speed forced LC's name into this post, and I don't care for it.

Spoiler: show

speed's immediate response to DH suspecting LC was this question. Its intrigue re: LC may less than its intrigue re: Sloonei if speedchuck turns out bad.

Spoiler: show

speedchuck voted LC briefly with a few hours remaining in D3. It's important to note that a wagon hadn't really formed yet (to my memory), and he ended up moving his vote anyway to me and later Glorfindel (before ending the day on LC -- to be discussed later). This doesn't move me either way.

Spoiler: show

His conviction in that vote must have been very low, because he was supportive of the doubts I raised about an LC lynch as I explored my own read. I don't care for this, because I didn't even think the arguments were that great -- it was why I brought them back and asked for feedback.

Spoiler: show

Idle babble about nutella in a different game, while he was presently voting for the guy. This is awkward.

When he switched his vote to me, he included LC in the good side of a POE list. I don't know how that happened. A conflicted read is not the same thing as "you're not in my suspect pool anymore". Not into it, brev.

Spoiler: show

Okay, I guess I have to vote for LC now, but I am going to shit in JJJ's corn flakes as I do so.

~~~

Conclusion

I think speedchuck emerges looking worse. A number of small or moderate points add up to a distinctly negative sum.

nutella wrote: ↑Wed Nov 07, 2018 12:01 am
JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Tue Nov 06, 2018 11:59 pm
DharmaHelper wrote: ↑Tue Nov 06, 2018 11:57 pm So wait the crowd that thinks INH was rezzed in order to perpetrate some kinda fuckery doesn't think Poutanko suddenly "coming out" with this "claimerino" doesn't count as "some kind of fuckery"

Mkay.
How does the mafia team win the game if the whole team shits its pants right here in our game thread on Day 4?
It depends, are your cornflakes in those pants?

Long Con and ColinIsCool

Long Con's stuff

Spoiler: show

Colin made a fair comment about LC's "logic seems unsound" assertion about Epignosis. LC's response, complete with an emoji expressing bewilderment, looks to me like something a mafioso says to a civilian to stall harsh criticism before it can arrive. Decent for Colin.

Spoiler: show

Long Con endorsed Owner's suspicion of Colin. There's potential for distancing in basic things like this, though I wouldn't say it bears that appearance distinctly.

Spoiler: show

He "kind of" suspected Colin for jumping on Bullzeye's suspect D1 vote. Meh.

Spoiler: show

This one really stands out to me, and in a way that works very well for Colin. Yes, listen to Colin here who is saying this proper civilian thing, and thus by association also listen to me, Long Con, given that I am also saying this proper civilian thing that proper civilian Colin is saying.

Spoiler: show

Long Con wrote: ↑Sun Nov 04, 2018 10:07 pm Maybe he wants the perks that come with being a Confirmed Civ. He could reasonably expect protection from kills. I don't know, it's pretty weird. I'm sure the Phoenix Down owner has a plan, no need to "lynch a Civ" to get a good target. Maybe he's a baddie with the ability to appear Civ upon their lynch. Get lynched - look Civ - use up rez - PROFIT!!!

Long Con wrote: ↑Sun Nov 04, 2018 11:02 pm I thought the not knowing INH was dead was townslippy. I guess a teammate could forget that their teammate died... or that theory about faking baddiness when killing. I saw that Jack disagrees.

nutella wrote: ↑Sun Nov 04, 2018 10:46 pm
MacDougall wrote: ↑Sun Nov 04, 2018 10:43 pm
nutella wrote: ↑Sun Nov 04, 2018 10:41 pm Jesus every single post on this page looks suspicious as fuck. Good on y'all for getting me to stop townreading everyone.
It's mostly just me who you were already scum reading so I dunno what you expected.
It's everyone else too though. But I agree with Quin about Colin, and with you and Jay that Colin's non-interaction with inh is a bad look. LC's skeptical theory about Colin raised my eyebrow but my suspicion of Colin is stronger than my doubt by the end of the page. [VOTE: colin] aubergine
Less a theory, more trying to understand his motivations for requesting a lynch with the instant rez promised. Why do you think he said that?

Long Con wrote: ↑Mon Nov 05, 2018 12:03 am
nutella wrote: ↑Mon Nov 05, 2018 12:00 am (okay, that was a fun exercise, and in doing it I guess there wasn't quite as much suspicious content as it felt like there was. I think my point about LC is the one most worth considering.)
Ok, you do it. Discuss reasons why Colin might do that.

Long Con wrote: ↑Mon Nov 05, 2018 12:44 am
nutella wrote: ↑Mon Nov 05, 2018 12:28 am
Long Con wrote: ↑Mon Nov 05, 2018 12:17 am
nutella wrote: ↑Mon Nov 05, 2018 12:14 am
Long Con wrote: ↑Mon Nov 05, 2018 12:03 am
nutella wrote: ↑Mon Nov 05, 2018 12:00 am (okay, that was a fun exercise, and in doing it I guess there wasn't quite as much suspicious content as it felt like there was. I think my point about LC is the one most worth considering.)
Ok, you do it. Discuss reasons why Colin might do that.
Well he could be town wanting to get confirmed, but as Quin pointed out, why? He's barely even been suspected at all until now -- and what's more, he had just pointed out his fear that rezzes were either gone or in the wrong hands. If he's town he can't count on a rez, by his own admission. He can only rely on a rez if he's bad and knows his team has one. Whether he has some way to appear civ upon flip, or whether his team will rez him as a confirmed baddie, I can't say, but there doesn't really seem to be a town explanation.
Ok, thank you. That seems remarkably similar to my own post that is your top suspected post on the Page of Sin.
No, don't think so. You didn't point out the thing I did that if he's town he can't count on a rez. Your post painted much more of a bleak picture of a baddie fooling us all with a fake flip, and so I came out of your post interpreting more of an overall thesis of "don't lynch Colin he's tricking us" whereas I am saying we should just lynch him because he's bad and if he has a fake flip we'll just have to deal.
The "baddies have the rez" thing wasn't on my mind, that's true. Since we're analyzing Colin's intentions here, I'd say it wasn't on Civ!his (did I do that right?) mind either. So it's debatable whether that's useful.

Both our posts discussed Civ reasons for his play, and found them coming up short, and then we both looked at benefits of doing it as a baddie, with a nod to a possible Seemer aspect in his lynch. How does my post "paint a bleak picture of a baddie fooling us with a fake slip" when yours says "Whether he has some way to appear civ upon flip..." yet presumably avoids those connotations?

Anyway, be that as it may, I can't help you reading my post that way, but I don't recall having a huge "don't lynch Colin" push in that post. My post was geared more to discussing a couple of things and leaving it for Colin to take up before going further.

nutella wrote: ↑Mon Nov 05, 2018 12:31 am
Quin wrote: ↑Mon Nov 05, 2018 12:19 am
nutella wrote: ↑Sun Nov 04, 2018 11:59 pm big post with long con in it
I didn't get that subtle defence or whatever from LC at all. Dunno how you interpreted it that way.
So anyway why isn't your vote on Colin? same goes for Long Con
I have found Colin's play pretty strong so far, and I have no intention of voting him because I can create a theory about his strange request that shows him as bad. Like I said, that wasn't the purpose of my post - to vilify Colin. I want him to respond to it before I decide anything.

I don't really have any suspicion of Colin apart from it.

Long Con wrote: ↑Mon Nov 05, 2018 10:36 am
ColinIsCool wrote: ↑Mon Nov 05, 2018 10:07 am
Long Con wrote: ↑Sun Nov 04, 2018 10:07 pm Maybe he wants the perks that come with being a Confirmed Civ. He could reasonably expect protection from kills. I don't know, it's pretty weird. I'm sure the Phoenix Down owner has a plan, no need to "lynch a Civ" to get a good target. Maybe he's a baddie with the ability to appear Civ upon their lynch. Get lynched - look Civ - use up rez - PROFIT!!!
Bingo. If I die then you know I’m a civ and if I come back, that’s good. Is this hard to understand?
On the contrary, it was my first notion. Then I realized it assumes you're Civ, and I took a look at the flip side.

Your reaction to this post is markedly different than nutella's to the same post where she describes me as: "simultaneously making Mr. Cool look villainous and deterring his lynch by implying that it's what the mafia want".

Long Con wrote: ↑Mon Nov 05, 2018 10:42 am You don't really have to be a baddie-who-can-appear-as-Civ-upon-lynch to pull this as a baddie. You just have to know that there's no way everyone's going to go along with this plan.

I mean, you know that, right? Do you really expect us to hijack a lynch just so you can die and get rezzed?

Long Con wrote: ↑Mon Nov 05, 2018 12:48 pm
ColinIsCool wrote: ↑Mon Nov 05, 2018 12:33 pm If I am going to get lynched by the dumbest wagon ever in my time of playing Mafia then at least please answer this q before I go join my great friend Turbup Head in the, uhh, Mirror of Erised? I don’t fucking know you tell me.

ColinIsCool wrote: ↑Sun Nov 04, 2018 4:47 pm Hypothetically assuming I used a Niffler, is it pro-town to share the results? Please weigh in on this and thank you.

I don't see the town benefit of publicizing Deathly Hallows locations. If anything, you'd mark that House for death.

But that's whatever.

So you asked to be lynched... and now that the votes are coming to you, you're getting salty about it??

LOL non please monsieur... allow me. [VOTE: Colin] aubergine We humbly await to serve your every request.

Follow the progression. LC speaks at length about Colin's "rez me" stuff, far more than that topic warranted in any legitimate hunt. LC meandered around on how he read it, found angles for suspicion, and ended up planting a vote on Colin. This was prior to the Glorfindel wagon taking off, I believe. It looks to me like LC wants to lynch Colin and is trying his best to legitimize that motion in a way that will look authentic (such that he doesn't take the brunt of the shit when Colin flips civilian).

Colin's stuff not already covered

Spoiler: show

Neutral chatter about other people. Whatever.

Colin places LC in the "wary" tier (middle tier) of a N1 colorless rainbow. This means little to me.

Spoiler: show

Colin was cool with DH's case against Long Con. His own bias aside, I think the assertion of opportunism is valid.

~~~

Conclusion

I think Colin emerges looking considerably better.

DharmaHelper wrote: ↑Wed Nov 07, 2018 12:00 am
JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Tue Nov 06, 2018 11:59 pm
DharmaHelper wrote: ↑Tue Nov 06, 2018 11:57 pm So wait the crowd that thinks INH was rezzed in order to perpetrate some kinda fuckery doesn't think Poutanko suddenly "coming out" with this "claimerino" doesn't count as "some kind of fuckery"

Mkay.
How does the mafia team win the game if the whole team shits its pants right here in our game thread on Day 4?

Now, I don't believe INH was rezzed to "perpetuate some kinda fuckery". It's at least a remote possibility that shenanigans may exist, but it isn't the most probable reality. You want to lynch him, be my guest. It's an easy fucking call.

Or we can do more with this phase regardless of the end result.

DharmaHelper wrote: ↑Tue Nov 06, 2018 11:57 pm So wait the crowd that thinks INH was rezzed in order to perpetrate some kinda fuckery doesn't think Poutanko suddenly "coming out" with this "claimerino" doesn't count as "some kind of fuckery"

Mkay.

How does the mafia team win the game if the whole team shits its pants right here in our game thread on Day 4?

I'm going to try something new with my interactive analyses. Y'all can tell me if it sucks or not. I will vary the size of my text point-by-point relative to how important or interesting I think it is. Bigger text reflects a more important point.

My favorite post of this day phase is karavalenge saying I'm bad because I've been nice.

I'm not offended or anything, it's just such classic Mafia. Anyway, I'm going to do things now.

insertnamehere wrote: ↑Tue Nov 06, 2018 8:44 pm [VOTE: speedchuck] aubergine

Solid WIFOM, I tip my cap

Sloonei wrote: ↑Tue Nov 06, 2018 8:27 pm
JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Tue Nov 06, 2018 8:23 pm [VOTE: speedchuck] aubergine

Lynch him. The mafia rezzed INH and could have shenanigans planned, even if unlikely. They weren’t ready to lose speedchuck today.
What’s the evidence against speed?

poutanko’s check, speeds goofy EOD3 Bullz’s terrible D1 vote, I can’t say more right now

[VOTE: speedchuck] aubergine

Lynch him. The mafia rezzed INH and could have shenanigans planned, even if unlikely. They weren’t ready to lose speedchuck today.

[VOTE: Lunalee] aubergine

Anyway who cares. Find LC’s team. I’ll help later.

DharmaHelper wrote: ↑Tue Nov 06, 2018 6:18 pm
JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Tue Nov 06, 2018 6:16 pm
DharmaHelper wrote: ↑Tue Nov 06, 2018 6:13 pm
JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Tue Nov 06, 2018 6:12 pm That is absolutely not balanced.*
What's not balanced about putting exactly one mafia member in each of the houses. that's...the definition of balanced....?
4 mafia members in a game of 24 players with full claiming and clearly vigilante(s) is the opposite of balanced. It’s also nonsense because your theory clears an entire house as soon as the mafioso dies.

There may be one in Hufflepuff because the randomizer said so. There has got to be more than just one more mafioso though.
Hey you think what you want to think my guy. I'm just telling you what I believe. And since I'm pretty fucking good at this game and very smart and better than you all at everything my money is on me.

But you're free to lose and not listen to me

The only reason I’m telling you how wrong you are is to make it entirely clear that I’m the greatest.

DharmaHelper wrote: ↑Tue Nov 06, 2018 6:13 pm
JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Tue Nov 06, 2018 6:12 pm That is absolutely not balanced.*
What's not balanced about putting exactly one mafia member in each of the houses. that's...the definition of balanced....?

4 mafia members in a game of 24 players with full claiming and clearly vigilante(s) is the opposite of balanced. It’s also nonsense because your theory clears an entire house as soon as the mafioso dies.

There may be one in Hufflepuff because the randomizer said so. There has got to be more than just one more mafioso though.

That is absolutely not balanced.*

DharmaHelper wrote: ↑Tue Nov 06, 2018 6:09 pm INH - Gryffindor
Long Con - RavenClaw
Nova - Slytherin
??? - Hufflepuff

- Portrait: A talking portrait that can be used to block the entrance to a house. This will make it impossible for someone who doesn’t belong to their house to target them with any abilities during that cycle, unless it is a super-kill.
That is absolutely not balanced.

I'm a god-tier mafia player but it doesn't take someone of my flawless brilliance to put together that, for balance reasons, each house has a mafia member.

That’s okay since we were going to just lynch LC anyway. Even swap.

Good shot, sir.

nutella wrote: ↑Tue Nov 06, 2018 1:20 pm
JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Tue Nov 06, 2018 11:59 am speedchuck, answering you this was to avoid a megaquote on my phone

I’d say that on a 1-10 scale representing my relative confidence in a mafioso read on a Day 2 following a Day 1 mislynch, INH was a 7 and Soneji was a 6. Or something. I’d call Long Con presently a 7, though the scale is different on Night 3 with an active dead mafioso trailing. Nobody else presently would be comparable though.

Numbers.
I don't understand this sentence can you clarify

The JaggedJimmyJay Suspicion Scale is sensitive to context. A “7” on Day 1 would reflect a good degree of confidence against the standard of what can generally be expected on Day 1. A “7” on Day 3 reflects a good degree of confidence against that higher standard of expectation. A Day 3 score of 7 can then be thought of as “higher” than a Day 1 score of 7.

It’s all in the numbers, you see.

[mention]juliets[/mention], I was a civilian in Ass Class. It’s an understandable mistake because I sucked so much in that game.

[mention]speedchuck[/mention], answering you this was to avoid a megaquote on my phone

I’d say that on a 1-10 scale representing my relative confidence in a mafioso read on a Day 2 following a Day 1 mislynch, INH was a 7 and Soneji was a 6. Or something. I’d call Long Con presently a 7, though the scale is different on Night 3 with an active dead mafioso trailing. Nobody else presently would be comparable though.

Numbers.

speedchuck wrote: ↑Tue Nov 06, 2018 11:21 amI want to know how your read progressed on Nutella throughout the game. Mostly in the past 48 hours.

Early I was giving her token civilian credit for many of the reasons both you and she cited in her defense later: she was posting at a high clip, seemed loose, and was on meta.

When INH died and I reviewed his interactions with nutella, she looked as bad as anyone in the game. I was then stuck with a conflict between her appearance at face value and her dealings with the bad guy, and that brought me to question the validity of my original read (should I be giving credit for adhering to a meta like this one, or is it easily replicated? Does she really believe I am the best suspect emerging from INH’s death; does that make sense? Have I underestimated her? Etc.). I turned on her because it felt right in the moment.

The conflict remained though, because at nutella’s posting rate and given the attitude she conveyed, room for a civilian in her slot wasn’t difficult to find. Then Glorf’s stuff happened; I thought he was obvious about an hour before he claimed; and she refused to budge on his wagon. To me that looked like absolute hogshit. And so my suspicion peaked.

Most recently I’ve cooled again, as I have noticed a trend in which her behavior bears the same sort of character as my own in our dealings with each other. She is flippant, arrogant at isolated moments of inspiration, and eager to spar. At times it has felt like arguing with myself, and indeed I have enjoyed annoying her.

It may evidence that we’re approaching our dynamic from similar brains and that would bode well for her.

speedchuck wrote: ↑Tue Nov 06, 2018 11:21 amI want to know when your suspicion for INH reached its zenith.

Those are the two biggest questions that came out of my readthrough. linki: Thanks, I appreciate it.

I was confident in him as a mafioso when he committed the cardinal salad. I was happy to lynch either him or Soneji and would have gladly gone that way at EOD if more than just one person had bitten on the case. I also didn’t care to see Luna or Owner lynched, so remaining on the counterwagon was sensible.

speedchuck wrote: ↑Tue Nov 06, 2018 11:20 am
JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Tue Nov 06, 2018 11:18 am I feel bad that you’ve gone to such effort there chuckaroo, though I appreciate it anyway. It really wasn’t necessary for reasons you can’t be expected to understand, but you will in due time.
You're going to kill me, aren't you.

No, speedchuck. I’m a nice boy.

If there’s a pressing point you really want to learn about, indicate it and I will bother.

I feel bad that you’ve gone to such effort there chuckaroo, though I appreciate it anyway. It really wasn’t necessary for reasons you can’t be expected to understand, but you will in due time.

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