The Syndicate

If I had to guess a team of three right this instant...

falcon, LoRab, Simon

Epignosis wrote: ↑Thu Mar 28, 2024 12:01 am Oh, I read that.

I'm just saying I wouldn't mind playing the long game for credibility and I think you'd do something similar (and LC certainly wouldn't be opposed to that).

Maybe that's true in your case. But I am not making a mechanically suboptimal kill unless it provides some kind of clear and major psychological advantage. Killing Wilgy doesn't make me look any better, as evidenced by the current wagon. I'm not even sure the "gambit" approach would even occur to me as mafia, because I play the game straight. I pursue the advantage in front of me.

Anyway, if people aren't going to take this evidence seriously, then there's no reason for me to keep babbling about it. I'm glad this wasn't a mafia gambit, because good lord it sucked as a gambit. Absolute failure.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Tue Mar 26, 2024 11:19 pm Who's most likely to miss this critical factor and make a bad mechanical kill?

falcon - maybe I guess, he's only kinda here
LoRab - could be, has missed a ton
motobot - could be, new to mechanical problems like this
Simon - could be, new to mechanical problems like this
sig - maybe I guess, he's only kinda here
Long Con - less likely
Epignosis - less likely
Tony - almost certainly not

Starting here.

Epignosis wrote: ↑Wed Mar 27, 2024 11:57 pm
JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Wed Mar 27, 2024 11:54 pm
Epignosis wrote: ↑Wed Mar 27, 2024 11:40 pm
JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Wed Mar 27, 2024 10:58 am I'll be frank:

The mafia just blundered. It's our responsibility to avoid responding to a blunder with a new blunder. So if the civilians out there have doubts about this rationale, they need to voice them with a level head. I don't want to see generic "naw that's BS" responses followed by votes. Play good Chess now that we finally can.
Did they? You still don't have any clue who they are, right?

I think you're smart enough to know that you can clear yourself by "blundering" your own kill if you are mafia.
At the very least they took Tony off the board and assured no double kill. Yes, they blundered.

The second line is silly.
Who are the blunderers then?

Make a list.

I already did that.

Epignosis wrote: ↑Wed Mar 27, 2024 11:53 pm [VOTE: JJJ] aubergine

I still loathe that reverse "white knight" treatment I was subjected to the other day.

I do not in the least think JJJ believed the Epi / moto theory.

There's so much backtracking it makes British bands of the 60s and 70s jealous.

You could make that hyperbole more efficient by replacing it with some adverbs.

Epignosis wrote: ↑Wed Mar 27, 2024 11:40 pm
JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Wed Mar 27, 2024 10:58 am I'll be frank:

The mafia just blundered. It's our responsibility to avoid responding to a blunder with a new blunder. So if the civilians out there have doubts about this rationale, they need to voice them with a level head. I don't want to see generic "naw that's BS" responses followed by votes. Play good Chess now that we finally can.
Did they? You still don't have any clue who they are, right?

I think you're smart enough to know that you can clear yourself by "blundering" your own kill if you are mafia.

At the very least they took Tony off the board and assured no double kill. Yes, they blundered.

The second line is silly.

@Simon do you have any theories about why Scotty and DrWilgy were killed in the night phases?

I might be in one of those moods to toss my reads (apart from Wilgy kill reads) in the trash. It’s not like they’ve been any good so far. Falcon and LoRab, y’all might have a great view of what’s what. I’ll consider the Epi sons.

I could see it.

I could see a lot of things these days.

I’d certainly like for Simon to answer that accusation.

Long Con wrote: ↑Wed Mar 27, 2024 3:59 pm
JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Wed Mar 27, 2024 3:48 pm I'd appreciate if anyone else could take a dedicated look at both motobot and Simon. I read both as civilians, but I acknowledge that I don't really have a great baseline for what either is supposed to look like as civilians (or for players that young in general). I will need some help if either of them is mafia.
Either of them is SUPER likely to not consider the convoluted reasons why Wilgy was not the best kill.

That's definitely true. They're not cleared on that front.

Long Con wrote: ↑Wed Mar 27, 2024 4:01 pm While "I did that kill just so I could say why it wasn't me" is not as common as many sleuths would hope... "Let's kill that guy because it implicates someone easily" IS a common thing.

Also true, though perhaps even this is overestimated (in terms of frequency). But it happens. People get framed. I have a sneaking suspicion I'm a patsy right now.

I'd appreciate if anyone else could take a dedicated look at both motobot and Simon. I read both as civilians, but I acknowledge that I don't really have a great baseline for what either is supposed to look like as civilians (or for players that young in general). I will need some help if either of them is mafia.

Scotty and Wilgy both suspected me, and now they're dead. That's just the truth. I fully understand why someone might expect me to have killed Scotty. I have a feeling Scotty's corpse was yelling that after he died. I often do kill direct threats too. I don't worry about all that.

But I don't ignore core mechanics that could win my team the game (especially if I am already on the chopping block, and killing a threat won't save me from that). I don't kill the player least likely to give me juicy double kill steaks.

[VOTE: LoRab] aubergine

And yes, it is cut and dry. Finally, we have something cut and dry. If civilians choose to leave it behind, that's on them.

falcon45ca wrote: ↑Wed Mar 27, 2024 3:21 pm Of course Wilgy did heavily sus you, as did Scotty.

I don't think it's as cut and dry as you're trying to make it out to be

Taking Wilgy out removes a clear & present danger to Maf Jay, same with Scotty, and NKing outside the AS wagon isn't guaranteed to actually get the extra kill...in fact, since we're looking at lynching a player NOT on AS wagon, it's possible Town could lynch Shingen

[VOTE: JJJ] aubergine

Now I am forced to decide which is the real kind of suspicious -- willfully ignoring the evidence (falcon), or gleefully accepting the evidence (LoRab).

BTW -- only one of those two voted outside the AS wagon. I did not mention that factor as a voting motivation, so I don't know what you're accusing me of there.

It looks like Wilgy said very little about LoRab other than including her in some POE theories. So "suspicion" existed in a token sense, albeit less overtly than Wilgy's suspicion of falcon. I don't see an immediate reason to doubt that LoRab would kill Wilgy.

sig wrote: ↑Wed Mar 27, 2024 1:57 pm What’s your thought on Lorab’s vote

I don't care for it. I was surprised that she agreed with my rationale when it squarely implicated her, and she submitted to the vote with no resistance. I'm not sure how to interpret that right now from the standpoint of a falcon/LoRab team theory, but it makes me suspect LoRab more on her own.

sig wrote: ↑Wed Mar 27, 2024 1:55 pm And? Maybe you killed him so you could use this exact argument, which wait you’re doing right now to try and defend yourself. See how that works? At this point it’s literally 50/50 if you killed him, add in the scotty kill who did heavily suspect you and the night kills make a lot of sense if you’re directing them.

Also it isn’t “generic suspicion” this is what I mean the verbiage you’re using is very mafia angled. You’re attempting to write it off as generic to brush it aside.

That's exactly what I just said. Hell. This kind of logic essentially never pans out. I strongly suggest you put it somewhere far under the Earth and grow a big beautiful tree where you left it as penance. You wanted to avoid wifom, and this argument is the definition of wifom. Find your bias.

When I say "generic", I mean accusations like setting up eliminations or killing people who suspected me. Those are ordinary, every day suspicions in Mafia games. I understand why you have those suspicions. But ignoring the evidence to the contrary is pure confirmation bias.

sig wrote: ↑Wed Mar 27, 2024 1:49 pm I’m also really not a fan of Jay going from saying I’m locked town, to trying to set up a future vote off, using the night kill as a reason.

This screams mafia. How so? You might ask. Well simple, Jay is leading the thread right now, he needs to not only set up votes, but also give himself cover when people flip town.

That’s exactly what I see him doing right now.

Now if everyone else disagrees I’ll table it, but I think it’s as clear as day

I'm considering the evidence in front of me, and what I said isn't even inconsistent. I acknowledged that at face value, you could fit the "who would make the wrong kill" theory just for having had sporadic involvement. That is technically true (as I see it).

I also said I don't think it's you and dedicated my attention to falcon and LoRab instead. Wilgy town read you, and you seemed town on your own. Those things are still true. I treated Epi's sons similarly. They both technically fit, and I have my doubts the same way.

Voicing a possibility out loud as I consider all the variables isn't "setting up eliminations". It's posting what's in my head. It's having conversations.

sig wrote: ↑Wed Mar 27, 2024 1:47 pm Yea I’m not really a fan of anyone on the falcon wagon.

Lorab is probably the only solid read one the three.

I think ONLY focusing on the Wilgy flip and mech is very very dangerous and scummy in fact the more I think about it the less I like people making those cases.

It just seems like a really easy way for mafia to redirect the convo and just boom boom boom through civs with a ready made excuse.

Especially since Jay is already setting this up in a way to target low hanging fruit.

Plus, and I’ll keep going back to this, scotty mentioned Jay, Jay was almost voted out and wasn’t, but his counter wagon didn’t flip mafia? I think if you ignore the mech or even just think about it a bit more Jay looks bad.

My tinfoil throw on is Epi/Jay are two mafia members since epi did help swing away from Jay.

If we have 3 I’d consider either Falcon/Simon

You can have generic suspicion of me. Fine. But I do think you bear a responsibility to explain why I would make the single worst mechanical kill on the board. Wilgy, at EOD, explicitly chose to vote for Abigail Sophia over voting for me. He was never in that BTSC. Ever. Killing him is just wrong.

If we're stuck in you killed him so you could say this today world, then we're blundering right back. That stuff never matters.

I don’t entirely discount Epignosis (or Long Con), because I agree it’s possible. I need an extra step for them (to assume they’d figure it out in BTSC). That’s why they’re not Tony clear.

I consider this kill a significant blunder, so accusing anyone of it is at least somewhat implying “you don’t know what you’re doing”. That’s a tough pill to swallow especially for those two long-time Cindies Kate. But I am open to the theory if someone thinks it’s the right theory.

LoRab wrote: ↑Wed Mar 27, 2024 11:46 amResponding to all your points in this quote and following. While my posting has missed a ton, I’ve read everything. And, I also agree with your logic on this in general.

I agree that falcon is a good choice for a vote. Especially after his response to the accusation.

Who do you think fits the bill other than falcon? It'd have to be the whole mafia team.

sig wrote: ↑Wed Mar 27, 2024 8:21 am
TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Tue Mar 26, 2024 11:40 pm gonna state the obvious and say if Jay is a wolf and is leading the game in posts by such a huge amount and then made a crazy gambit NK just to attempt to clear himself that’s very good play and far better than people typically think of his wolf range and I can’t be too upset about losing to it
I could see it, but it’s also based off who his partners are.

Who would make said crazy gambit with him?

My biggest issue with Jay right now is it seems like he’s more setting up votes rather than trying to solve.

Even in this phase he’s floated epi/Moto, is laying ground work for voting off me after the hard claim Ect.

I don’t think we should blindly clear off of mechish reasoning or delve too deep into WIFOM.

I appreciate sig at least referring to it as a "crazy gambit". sig demonstrates understanding of the problem. It's human nature to explore the wifom, but at least he knows it'd have to be a gambit.

I'll be frank:

The mafia just blundered. It's our responsibility to avoid responding to a blunder with a new blunder. So if the civilians out there have doubts about this rationale, they need to voice them with a level head. I don't want to see generic "naw that's BS" responses followed by votes. Play good Chess now that we finally can.

“Stranglehold”

It’s seeing evidence and adopting it. It’s “solving”.

No, that is not the evidence. Calling those posts evidence doesn’t even make sense.

You’re literally demonstrating why I voted for you. You don’t understand the problem.

falcon45ca wrote: ↑Wed Mar 27, 2024 10:24 am
JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Wed Mar 27, 2024 10:19 am I didn’t backpedal my suspicion of Epi/moto when Epi responded. I moved on when I discovered better evidence. I doubt Epi makes a bad kill too. I am less sure than with Tony, but I doubt it. And I don’t really see moto as mafia without Epi.

Evidence? I'd like to hear what the "evidence" actually is, and I do appreciate the euphemism in the bolded bit

We spent an hour discussing that evidence last night. Do you understand why DrWilgy is a poor kill choice? Don’t give me the conspiracy theory wifom crap (exactly why I don’t gambit), and look at the facts.

falcon45ca wrote: ↑Wed Mar 27, 2024 10:18 am Nearly 300 posts before D3 is even half over, and you want us to believe that if you were Maf you'd have a stranglehold on the thread.

You do

You’re still ignoring the elephant in the room.

I didn’t backpedal my suspicion of Epi/moto when Epi responded. I moved on when I discovered better evidence. I doubt Epi makes a bad kill too. I am less sure than with Tony, but I doubt it. And I don’t really see moto as mafia without Epi.

For example: it is genuinely very hard to believe that Tony killed Wilgy, because Wilgy is a bad kill. Someone with any mind on the setup doesn’t make that kill.

Ignoring that as “wifom” in Tony’s case would be silly. We take the evidence we’re given.

The same really should apply to me if we have the courage and, well, if we have a mind on the setup.

@falcon45ca, what’s milquetoast is grabbing any reference to Wilgy and saying “is this why Wilgt was killed?”

Snore

sig wrote: ↑Wed Mar 27, 2024 8:13 am
JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Tue Mar 26, 2024 11:19 pm Who's most likely to miss this critical factor and make a bad mechanical kill?

falcon - maybe I guess, he's only kinda here
LoRab - could be, has missed a ton
motobot - could be, new to mechanical problems like this
Simon - could be, new to mechanical problems like this
sig - maybe I guess, he's only kinda here
Long Con - less likely
Epignosis - less likely
Tony - almost certainly not
“Only kinda here”

Excuse me? I’m being very active this game more so than the vast amount of the player base.

This seems like you’re trying to “mech solve” your way to more non mafia kills

I appreciate your engagement, but that second line is just not true.

I don’t care about the third line. Ignoring the setup and valid clearance when it’s there is how an unsolvable game remains unsolvable.

The new Ghostbusters movie is bad.

Long Con wrote: ↑Tue Mar 26, 2024 11:42 pm And that's also good night from me.

Blessings upon you, town core.

Yes. If you give me a choice between:

Door #1: weird gambit in a world where people could easily not even catch on

Door #2: kill two people at the same time

Well, I'm gonna open the right door.

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Tue Mar 26, 2024 11:38 pm As like a “mechanism by which the wolves appear to not know what’s going on”

And to build on that: I think both Epi and LC would ask in mafia chat what the thief is. They'd figure it out.

The unfortunate lol-reality would be if this logic is broken because mafia didn't know the thief is Kagemusha.

Which is why both Tony and I should be almost hard-cleared.

I hereby acknowledge Tony's post and continue voting Not Tony.

Long Con wrote: ↑Tue Mar 26, 2024 11:25 pm The Scotty and Wilgy kills are both done by someone who knows that they're very good.

Consistent with falconRab theory.

Me too TBQFH

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Tue Mar 26, 2024 11:23 pm I should be cleared by wilgy kill lol

Agreed mostly

sig killing Wilgy would be a bit odd. Maybe that points to a team of two then? falcon and LoRab?

We'd said it's possible to have a small team with the double-kill mechanic in play. Dangerous to bank on it.

I mean, by that logic, we have a POE of five. I still think Epi's sons look like civilians. So...

falcon, LoRab, sig

How do we feel about that?

Who's most likely to miss this critical factor and make a bad mechanical kill?

falcon - maybe I guess, he's only kinda here
LoRab - could be, has missed a ton
motobot - could be, new to mechanical problems like this
Simon - could be, new to mechanical problems like this
sig - maybe I guess, he's only kinda here
Long Con - less likely
Epignosis - less likely
Tony - almost certainly not

Could be, I dunno. The Wilgy kill suggests that at the very least, they don't have a grip on how to achieve that bonus.

If Tony is a civilian he is going to hate this conversation.

Long Con wrote: ↑Tue Mar 26, 2024 11:13 pm Falcon was clearly Wilgy's big suspect. He attempted a possible hot potato onto him at the end there.

I was a bit irked at myself for not following him. I kinda figured it'd just get me killed.

Scotty town read falcon, but he didn't actually say anything about falcon. It's a minor hang-up, not necessarily a theory-breaker.

Epignosis wrote: ↑Tue Mar 26, 2024 11:12 pm
JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Tue Mar 26, 2024 11:10 pm Please do not inform the mafia if they do not already know.
Does it matter after today?

Sure, if it results in double-kills.

[VOTE: falcon45ca] aubergine

DrWilgy wrote: ↑Mon Mar 25, 2024 7:31 pm Thoughts before the kids pull me away again.

My brain has observed a pattern with Jay that appears wolfy. I will probably require a flip to solve. Do I push for said flip and vote there or allow the opportunity for a Jay solve that's often highly beneficial for town?

Probably should yeet Falc.

No other thoughts.

Oh, Sig is probably town.

I don't really remember much else from my skin so what I advised from D1 still applies.

Just mulling over Wilgy reads for the sake of night kill analysis. It's unlikely he was killed for the right reason, so we can examine the wrong reasons (e.g., feeling threatened or something similar).

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