MM, tell me why I behaved the way I behaved at the end of Day 1 if I am the serial killer.
I seriously think that stretch says it all. I'm not the SK because my EOD1 makes absolutely no sense for a SK. I am confident that will be apparent to Golden and INH if they look at it objectively. If I am an LMS independent, then that means I put myself in a lose-lose scenario at the end of that day phase for no reason that could truly benefit me.
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Return to “RED vs. BLUE: Endgame”
- Sun Sep 11, 2016 9:28 pm
- Forum: Previous Heists
- Topic: RED vs. BLUE: Endgame
- Replies: 2588
- Views: 63763
- Sun Sep 11, 2016 9:23 pm
- Forum: Previous Heists
- Topic: RED vs. BLUE: Endgame
- Replies: 2588
- Views: 63763
Re: RED vs. BLUE: Day 5
You can continue to pretend the Sloonei kill implicates me more than it does you, but no matter how you shake it it's nonsense. I am the one who was theorizing that Golden and INH might have civilian BTSC. If I am the serial killer, then I know their relationship is meaningful because I have no reason to doubt them. That's why you had no reason to doubt them.Metalmarsh89 wrote:I picked up on something that you didn't. I knew going into today that Golden and inh were not going to be lynched because they are both town. Thus, either one of them would have been an obvious kill choice for me. Not so for you.JaggedJimmyJay wrote:Every player was on the table for me. That's how it's supposed to be for an uninformed townie. If Sloonei was alive this phase alongside any combination of three of the rest of us, he'd be the most likely lynch right now.Metalmarsh89 wrote:Otherwise, Jay thought during Night 4 and the beginning of Day 5 that every player would be on the table. Killing Golden or inh would have been an obvious choice for me in that regard, but not for Jay.
The Sloonei kill makes no sense for any one in this lynch tally unless the Trump motive is considered, in which case it can apply to anyone. You're squeezing bad logic into the argument that you feel you must make against me -- that I killed Sloonei.
- Sun Sep 11, 2016 9:16 pm
- Forum: Previous Heists
- Topic: RED vs. BLUE: Endgame
- Replies: 2588
- Views: 63763
Re: RED vs. BLUE: Day 5
Every player was on the table for me. That's how it's supposed to be for an uninformed townie. If Sloonei was alive this phase alongside any combination of three of the rest of us, he'd be the most likely lynch right now.Metalmarsh89 wrote:Otherwise, Jay thought during Night 4 and the beginning of Day 5 that every player would be on the table. Killing Golden or inh would have been an obvious choice for me in that regard, but not for Jay.
- Sun Sep 11, 2016 9:13 pm
- Forum: Previous Heists
- Topic: RED vs. BLUE: Endgame
- Replies: 2588
- Views: 63763
Re: RED vs. BLUE: Day 5
I don't know. It strikes me as a bad choice. Perhaps Marmot thought he was Trump, perhaps he thought WIFOM was a better play than keeping the consensus suspect in the game. I can only speculate.Golden wrote:For each of you - why would the other kill sloonei?
- Sun Sep 11, 2016 8:38 pm
- Forum: Previous Heists
- Topic: RED vs. BLUE: Endgame
- Replies: 2588
- Views: 63763
Re: RED vs. BLUE: Day 5
I'll be around to field questions/concerns.
- Sun Sep 11, 2016 6:39 pm
- Forum: Previous Heists
- Topic: RED vs. BLUE: Endgame
- Replies: 2588
- Views: 63763
Re: RED vs. BLUE: Day 5
The bad thing about a JJJ vs. Marmot LyLo brawl on late summer Sunday is that we're both going to be watching handegg. :P
I'll be sporadically around though.
I'll be sporadically around though.
- Sun Sep 11, 2016 2:53 am
- Forum: Previous Heists
- Topic: RED vs. BLUE: Endgame
- Replies: 2588
- Views: 63763
Re: RED vs. BLUE: Day 5
I don't "think" that. I acknowledge that the theory is valid and it suits the narratives G-Man has provided. You're right that I couldn't figure it out. I certainly tried. Maybe Sloonei did better than I did.Metalmarsh89 wrote:You're the guy who couldn't figure things out from the night posts. Why do you think that the SK needs Donald Trump dead to win?
- Sun Sep 11, 2016 2:47 am
- Forum: Previous Heists
- Topic: RED vs. BLUE: Endgame
- Replies: 2588
- Views: 63763
Re: RED vs. BLUE: Day 5
I would not kill Sloonei.Metalmarsh89 wrote:But I stand by what I said before. I would not kill Epignosis.
Someone's lying.
I am willing to believe that you don't like to kill Epignosis. One of the first things I noticed on this site over the first few months was how often Epignosis got night killed early in games. I even griped about it myself. I believe that in most cases, you'd prefer to kill someone else. This game is a unique beast though, and apparently you felt that you had to break your trend. Perhaps you thought Epignosis might be Trump. Perhaps you felt the kill wouldn't be traced to you as much as someone else. I don't really know.
But you killed him.
- Sun Sep 11, 2016 2:40 am
- Forum: Previous Heists
- Topic: RED vs. BLUE: Endgame
- Replies: 2588
- Views: 63763
Re: RED vs. BLUE: Day 5
Go ahead and have a look. If there's one aspect of my play in this game that I think is most telling, it's one Marmot actually just brought up against me.Golden wrote:Apologies, haven't had time to do much but pop in briefly today, will post thoughts tomorrow.
I thought MM came out of yesterday's lynch looking worst even with Sloonei alive, and MM being bad is what makes most sense to me. But with what time I have tomorrow I want to really consider Jay objectively because I've spent so much game in defense of him that I recognise its possible he could have me suckered.
My behavior at the end of Day 1 put me in a lose-lose scenario if I am the serial killer. Please consider that as you consider me.
- Sun Sep 11, 2016 2:37 am
- Forum: Previous Heists
- Topic: RED vs. BLUE: Endgame
- Replies: 2588
- Views: 63763
Re: RED vs. BLUE: Day 5
My typos and word omissions always make me look like such an asshole.JaggedJimmyJay wrote:That's NOT to say I'm the best townie (I am quite sure I'm not), but I may be the hardest working.
- Sun Sep 11, 2016 2:36 am
- Forum: Previous Heists
- Topic: RED vs. BLUE: Endgame
- Replies: 2588
- Views: 63763
Re: RED vs. BLUE: Day 5
I'm honestly not sure I have ever been "legacy killed" before. Maybe RotTK (I don't want to talk about live games), but I don't know. Frankly it isn't even that common for me to die early in games for reasons I have never been clear on. In this game it should be quite obvious why the Mafia never killed me -- Epignosis was trying to use me as his personal punching bag. It was a coin flip shy of working too. I can't tell you why you haven't killed me. Perhaps I am perceived as a tinfoil magnet.Metalmarsh89 wrote:You're JaggedJimmyJay. People will nightkill you based on your legacy from other games as opposed to your play in this game. The fact that you haven't been nightkilled is noteworthy.
The most posts I have ever had in an anti-town role is 300. The most posts I have ever had in a town role is 1450.Metalmarsh89 wrote:The way I play in general is more compatible. You are supatown Jay. I am free-spirited oft fuck-off Marmot. That's just how it is, and it doesn't stop you from being the SK.
That's similar to what I was saying several days ago about inh.
When I'm town, I'm not "Supatown Jay". I'm Ultra Megazord Earth Shaker Town Jay. I have yet to encounter another player anywhere who gives as effort to the town game as I do. That's to say I'm the best townie (I am quite sure I'm not), but I may be the hardest working.
I have never done that in a non-town role. So you can consider this a significant tip-off. If I am obliterating the post count, I am almost certainly pro-town. If I am merely leading it or among the leaders, there's a better chance I'm anti-town. Use it against me in some future game if you like.
This time I'm as Ultra Megazord Town Jay as ever before. In a 15 player game, I have asserted total control over this thread and welcomed bullets from both sides. Because I'm town and that's my style.
- Sun Sep 11, 2016 2:22 am
- Forum: Previous Heists
- Topic: RED vs. BLUE: Endgame
- Replies: 2588
- Views: 63763
Re: RED vs. BLUE: Day 5
Correction.JaggedJimmyJay wrote:A serial killer is conscious of these risks and doesn't take them lightly. I took them very lightly, because when I'm town and my survival is not critical to my team's victory condition -- I do whatever I feel I must.
- Sun Sep 11, 2016 2:21 am
- Forum: Previous Heists
- Topic: RED vs. BLUE: Endgame
- Replies: 2588
- Views: 63763
Re: RED vs. BLUE: Day 5
You're not as easy a lynch as Sloonei would have been. Nobody here is. All four of us voiced suspicion of Sloonei including two people who are joined at the hip. He was the easiest lynch on the table and it wasn't close.Metalmarsh89 wrote:I stand by what I've said here. I am a somewhat easy lynch. Golden voted for me based on PoE alone, and stated he should consider looking into you. He voted for me before doing any research.JaggedJimmyJay wrote:This is where you've had to reach. If I kill MM, I leave Sloonei alive with two civ buddies (who both suspect him). The likelihood of Sloonei being lynched in that scenario is quite high. The same cannot be said in this scenario. We're in a 50/50 slugfest now, and there's no reason I'd have to put myself in that position. It's a bad play, and the only motive for it that I can think of is WIFOM.Metalmarsh89 wrote:If Jay kills Sloonei, he leaves myself alive and two civ-buddies. Generally speaking, I am an easier lynch target than Sloonei.
You're the WIFOM bucket, not me.
If I am the serial killer, I don't discard that advantage. I don't know why anyone would, but Sloonei is dead.
- Sun Sep 11, 2016 2:20 am
- Forum: Previous Heists
- Topic: RED vs. BLUE: Endgame
- Replies: 2588
- Views: 63763
Re: RED vs. BLUE: Day 5
You're not the person I am interested in convincing here. You're the serial killer.Metalmarsh89 wrote:No, I don't think this is a good indicator. I figured out what Golden was talking about yesterday. You did not. You still had reason to believe Golden or inh could be bad. I did not.JaggedJimmyJay wrote:Moreover, the fact that I opened this day in full-on tinfoil mode against Golden should be a good indicator. I don't have all the answers. I am trying the best I can to work out all of the details of this game using the methods I know and the limited information available to me. I have had to engage Golden and INH repeatedly over the course of multiple cycles to try to sort out their relationship, because that effort is crucial in process of elimination and in determining whether one of them is making a play.
I haven't been comfortable making assumptions that exonerate Golden (a reputed player who has beaten me as a replacement baddie in the past) or INH (a player I have been at odds with for most of the game). It should be expected that I am not going to let either of those players slip by without thoroughly challenging and investigating them to the best of my ability. And it wasn't until INH's commentary this day phase that I felt like there was sufficient reason to do that.
Marmot did not show the same kind of town paranoia. He already knows the answer.
INH and Golden can judge this for themselves. It should be quite clear in the posts I have made about Golden and INH that I have had a serious interest in figuring out how to read the relationship between them. I asked them numerous questions, I proposed multiple theories, and I assessed everything they said in response. That's the effort which is necessary for a townie to undertake to understand other people's play in a Mafia game.
You did not undertake the same effort. As the serial killer, you had a key advantage over me when it comes to figuring out what Golden and INH were about. You couldn't suspect them, at least not genuinely, because you knew yourself to be the SK. You had no real reason to investigate what they were doing in the thread, and it shows.
- Sun Sep 11, 2016 2:16 am
- Forum: Previous Heists
- Topic: RED vs. BLUE: Endgame
- Replies: 2588
- Views: 63763
Re: RED vs. BLUE: Day 5
I said I would show restraint. Controlling one of the night kills would not prevent me from being targeted by the other one. A serial killer is forced to be conscious of both avoiding lynches (which I have done a poor job of throughout the game apparently) and avoiding night kills.Metalmarsh89 wrote:Ok Mr. WIFOM bucket. JaggedJimmyJay would not sow restraint if he was the SK huh? You say it is perhaps inconsistent reads? Well you also could control one of the nightkills.
I tried to CFD someone on Day 1 based upon a read that I couldn't know was accurate, meaning I was deliberately putting myself out there in a position to either be a hero (if the CFD took place and netted a scum flip) or a goat (if the lynch I was trying to avert did take place and netted a scum flip -- as is what happened with Scotty). That is the behavior of a townie doing what he feels is best under the circumstances, and either way it'd leave me threatened. If it had gone my way, I'd have wide open for a mafia kill. If it hadn't (and it didn't), I was wide open for a lynch -- and on Days 2 and 3 I nearly was lynched.
A serial killer is conscious of these risks and does take them lightly. I took them very lightly, because when I'm town and my survival is not critical to my team's victory condition -- I do whatever I feel I must.
You've played a very strong game, I agree. You played a key role in eliminating the mafia team -- indeed your votes were more crucial than my votes. But that doesn't make you a townie. Nobody has to believe me at face value that my post count is meaningful -- I understand it's not something that will be easily absorbed by most. I do think some people have a keen understanding of what I am trying to convey though. Golden is the foremost example here. He knows and personally understands what goes in to a massive town effort, and how that is fundamentally different from a serial killer effort. The way I have played this game makes no sense for a serial killer.Metalmarsh89 wrote:This is possible the best mafia game I've ever played. I've helped lynch two of the members of mafia, and was the only person to vote for the third (even though I later townread him lol). I did it in under 300 posts. We are not lynching someone today based on their post count, so I don't see your point.
The way you have played this game is more compatible.
- Sat Sep 10, 2016 8:39 pm
- Forum: Previous Heists
- Topic: RED vs. BLUE: Endgame
- Replies: 2588
- Views: 63763
Re: RED vs. BLUE: Day 5
Moreover, the fact that I opened this day in full-on tinfoil mode against Golden should be a good indicator. I don't have all the answers. I am trying the best I can to work out all of the details of this game using the methods I know and the limited information available to me. I have had to engage Golden and INH repeatedly over the course of multiple cycles to try to sort out their relationship, because that effort is crucial in process of elimination and in determining whether one of them is making a play.
I haven't been comfortable making assumptions that exonerate Golden (a reputed player who has beaten me as a replacement baddie in the past) or INH (a player I have been at odds with for most of the game). It should be expected that I am not going to let either of those players slip by without thoroughly challenging and investigating them to the best of my ability. And it wasn't until INH's commentary this day phase that I felt like there was sufficient reason to do that.
Marmot did not show the same kind of town paranoia. He already knows the answer.
I haven't been comfortable making assumptions that exonerate Golden (a reputed player who has beaten me as a replacement baddie in the past) or INH (a player I have been at odds with for most of the game). It should be expected that I am not going to let either of those players slip by without thoroughly challenging and investigating them to the best of my ability. And it wasn't until INH's commentary this day phase that I felt like there was sufficient reason to do that.
Marmot did not show the same kind of town paranoia. He already knows the answer.
- Sat Sep 10, 2016 8:33 pm
- Forum: Previous Heists
- Topic: RED vs. BLUE: Endgame
- Replies: 2588
- Views: 63763
Re: RED vs. BLUE: Day 5
Here's the most fundamental question I would ask everyone to consider when it comes to me as a serial killer.
I'm not mafia-aligned. That means that the mafia hunting efforts I have put in this game have been entirely genuine. I have made over 750 posts, while the second highest player has 272. I have played this game as hard as I possibly can because that's how I win with town factions in games where survival is not required. I haven't been remotely concerned with evading night kills from the mafia team, and if I was a serial killer that wouldn't be the case. I might still lead the game in posts (might), but I wouldn't triple everyone else. Even when you're JaggedJimmyJay, an LMS independent role demands some degree of restraint -- I have shown none of that. I have been going balls to the wall since the game began and at no point have I rested or slowed down.
That begs for night kills. Obviously it hasn't happened in this game, probably due at least in part to the fact that my reads were inconsistent.
I'm not mafia-aligned. That means that the mafia hunting efforts I have put in this game have been entirely genuine. I have made over 750 posts, while the second highest player has 272. I have played this game as hard as I possibly can because that's how I win with town factions in games where survival is not required. I haven't been remotely concerned with evading night kills from the mafia team, and if I was a serial killer that wouldn't be the case. I might still lead the game in posts (might), but I wouldn't triple everyone else. Even when you're JaggedJimmyJay, an LMS independent role demands some degree of restraint -- I have shown none of that. I have been going balls to the wall since the game began and at no point have I rested or slowed down.
That begs for night kills. Obviously it hasn't happened in this game, probably due at least in part to the fact that my reads were inconsistent.
- Sat Sep 10, 2016 8:25 pm
- Forum: Previous Heists
- Topic: RED vs. BLUE: Endgame
- Replies: 2588
- Views: 63763
Re: RED vs. BLUE: Day 5
This logic applies to everyone alive.Metalmarsh89 wrote:If I was the SK, I would not have nightkilled Sloonei last night. The kill makes more sense for Jay than it does for me. If I nightkill Sloonei, I take out my top suspect and put myself in a position of necessary backtrack.
insertnamehere wrote:Voted Sloonei.
I think both him and Quin have cases directed at them with decent reasoning behind them, but I still see Sloonei as the SK more than I do Quin.
Plus, I don't like surprise lynching someone who made clear that they wouldn't be around at EoD.
Golden wrote:My gut says sloonei is the right vote. it's where I'd vote in a vacuum.
Someone who suspected Sloonei killed Sloonei. Everyone is in the same "backtrack" position accordingly.JaggedJimmyJay wrote:Maybe. At the moment the two people I am most wary of are you and Golden.Sloonei wrote:Have you changed your mind?
This is where you've had to reach. If I kill MM, I leave Sloonei alive with two civ buddies (who both suspect him). The likelihood of Sloonei being lynched in that scenario is quite high. The same cannot be said in this scenario. We're in a 50/50 slugfest now, and there's no reason I'd have to put myself in that position. It's a bad play, and the only motive for it that I can think of is WIFOM.Metalmarsh89 wrote:If Jay kills Sloonei, he leaves myself alive and two civ-buddies. Generally speaking, I am an easier lynch target than Sloonei.
You're the WIFOM bucket, not me.
I know you would. If Sloonei was alive this phase, regardless of who is dead instead of him, he'd be the most likely lynch. The kill choice was a strange one, and I'd even say a bad one. That's why I didn't do it.Metalmarsh89 wrote:That said, it's still curious that Sloonei was nightkilled over inh or Golden. It is true that Sloonei had backed off of me towards the end of Day 4, but I almost certainly would have voted for Sloonei today if he was still alive.
Besides, all of this "I wouldn't kill _____ because ______ scenario is unfavorable" stuff is moot in a universe in which the serial killer is trying to kill Donald Trump. If Sloonei was correct about that, then that's the only motive that matters. I don't struggle to believe that Marmot targeted Sloonei with the hopes of eliminating Trump, particularly given that it was Sloonei who was uncovering the details of that theory based upon G-Man's narratives.
- Sat Sep 10, 2016 5:48 pm
- Forum: Previous Heists
- Topic: RED vs. BLUE: Endgame
- Replies: 2588
- Views: 63763
Re: RED vs. BLUE: Day 5
I have to go for the time being. I'll be back later tonight.
- Sat Sep 10, 2016 5:47 pm
- Forum: Previous Heists
- Topic: RED vs. BLUE: Endgame
- Replies: 2588
- Views: 63763
Re: RED vs. BLUE: Day 5
Given that MM is almost certainly the SK in this scenario, this means my night kill analysis method for serial killer hunting from Day 3 was effective (MM was a red there with INH) for the second time in two tries.
Granted in this case if it's always been about chasing Trump, that's probably just luck.
Granted in this case if it's always been about chasing Trump, that's probably just luck.
- Sat Sep 10, 2016 5:44 pm
- Forum: Previous Heists
- Topic: RED vs. BLUE: Endgame
- Replies: 2588
- Views: 63763
Re: RED vs. BLUE: Day 5
INH's last post here also clarifies a lot for me about what Golden has been talking about. I think I made an accurate, or at least near-accurate, assertion about their relationship, and INH refuted it anyway for the sake of avoiding a NK. That fits the "survivalism" mindset Golden is portraying and it allows the pieces to fall into place here.
- Sat Sep 10, 2016 5:39 pm
- Forum: Previous Heists
- Topic: RED vs. BLUE: Endgame
- Replies: 2588
- Views: 63763
Re: RED vs. BLUE: Day 5
My concern about Golden, that he wanted to setup a LyLo phase alongside a voting ally in INH, is significantly less viable in a universe where INH treats Golden the same way. It's why I've been trying so hard to sort out their relationship on both sides. The only other possibility is that they're both bad, which means this game was never balanced in the first place (and I'd wonder why it isn't already over).
Truth be told I think Marmot has played a great game. But he's the only option left.
Truth be told I think Marmot has played a great game. But he's the only option left.
- Sat Sep 10, 2016 5:35 pm
- Forum: Previous Heists
- Topic: RED vs. BLUE: Endgame
- Replies: 2588
- Views: 63763
Re: RED vs. BLUE: Day 5
VOTE METALMARSH89
- Sat Sep 10, 2016 5:32 pm
- Forum: Previous Heists
- Topic: RED vs. BLUE: Endgame
- Replies: 2588
- Views: 63763
Re: RED vs. BLUE: Day 5
Maybe I am. What I do know is that they have a mutual total disinterest in lynching one another. You're what's left.Metalmarsh89 wrote:Linki x2: No, I think you're wrong about the BTSC.
- Sat Sep 10, 2016 5:31 pm
- Forum: Previous Heists
- Topic: RED vs. BLUE: Endgame
- Replies: 2588
- Views: 63763
Re: RED vs. BLUE: Day 5
Okay, I think I was right about the civilian BTSC then. It's Marmot.
- Sat Sep 10, 2016 5:27 pm
- Forum: Previous Heists
- Topic: RED vs. BLUE: Endgame
- Replies: 2588
- Views: 63763
Re: RED vs. BLUE: Day 5
So you aren't concerned at all with either Golden or INH, MM?
- Sat Sep 10, 2016 4:28 pm
- Forum: Previous Heists
- Topic: RED vs. BLUE: Endgame
- Replies: 2588
- Views: 63763
Re: RED vs. BLUE: Day 5
I'd like to know how INH feels about this.
- Sat Sep 10, 2016 4:19 pm
- Forum: Previous Heists
- Topic: RED vs. BLUE: Endgame
- Replies: 2588
- Views: 63763
Re: RED vs. BLUE: Day 5
I'm willing to listen. It's not that I am somewhat unsure what you're saying, it's that I haven't the slightest clue what you're saying. The best I can think of is that you're implying he is a power role or an important role otherwise, but I don't see a reason to confidently make that assumption. Show me the INH posts I have talked this phase about without that "survivalist" mindset, and explain why I should be viewing them that way.Golden wrote:You are looking at what I'm trying to express all wrong. I didn't mean to say he was unhelpful on day one. I do think, however, you ascribe intentions to his posts in this game without considering the 'survivalist', explanation, in the past, and you'd do well to look at his posts again through the lens of survival.
I don't know how to help any more than I can. Maybe you'll have a lightbulb moment, maybe you won't, but I don't think I can do anything more to help you. It's best we move on.
I won't disqualify him from candidacy. My doubts about him as the SK stem from a few posts he made last day phase:Golden wrote:Jay, why is MM not the serial killer?
At the very end of the day, Marmot briefly moved his vote to Sloonei based on the above reasoning. The fact that he was still looking at Sloonei's ISO this late in the phase while Quin led the tally anyway suggests to me that he was genuinely looking for a serial killer.Metalmarsh89 wrote:Looking back at this day, Sloonei went from getting good vibes on Quin to bad in a 3 minute span, both after Quin said he was going to bed.JaggedJimmyJay wrote:whyMetalmarsh89 wrote:Vote Sloonei
This happened after Jay shot down the case on me.
This happened while Sloonei had a few votes.
I liked where his mind was at here. He was listening to my argument against Quin, but he was also wary that I was suffering from recency bias (and maybe I was).Metalmarsh89 wrote:I could see a reason for it, perhaps. I've seen faked information before (I think Boomslang did it in the GoC?).JaggedJimmyJay wrote:It's not his reasons for believing that which I find suspicious. I agree with them. It's that he thinks Golden is faking information about INH -- but he still trusts Golden the most and INH the least. That doesn't make sense to me.Metalmarsh89 wrote:Quin does not believe Golden has information on inh, and his reasons are sound. Golden observed that Quin himself might have an info role, and Quin suspects inh. I don't find this dubious.
There is only one SK left presumably, so Quin doesn't have as much need to make such a dubious comment. You make a good argument.
Do you think this is the most suspicious thing you have seen today, or just the most recent?
There's more I could say but that's a start.
- Sat Sep 10, 2016 4:08 pm
- Forum: Previous Heists
- Topic: RED vs. BLUE: Endgame
- Replies: 2588
- Views: 63763
Re: RED vs. BLUE: Day 5
I agree that for certain stretches of this game, his play could be described as more about survival than solving. That was a part of my own rationale when I was calling him a serial killer. I'm just trying to understand why that = town.Golden wrote:Maybe you should go back and read inh day one again, then.
- Sat Sep 10, 2016 3:58 pm
- Forum: Previous Heists
- Topic: RED vs. BLUE: Endgame
- Replies: 2588
- Views: 63763
Re: RED vs. BLUE: Day 5
INH cooperating with the rest of us on Day 4 by providing a thorough rainbow list ordering his suspects
I don't think that description of INH truly applies to his play either.
I don't think that description of INH truly applies to his play either.
- Sat Sep 10, 2016 3:55 pm
- Forum: Previous Heists
- Topic: RED vs. BLUE: Endgame
- Replies: 2588
- Views: 63763
Re: RED vs. BLUE: Day 5
If you think this description is fitting for INH, why is he not a serial killer candidate? To be primarily interested in survival and not in cooperation is definitive of an independent mindset.Golden wrote:Jay, why exactly are you taking inh at his word? he's a survivalist, uninterested in helping you understand the game. If you stop trying to think of him as someone who is trying to help you solve the game, and start thinking of him as a person who is trying not to die, you might understand.
- Sat Sep 10, 2016 1:40 pm
- Forum: Previous Heists
- Topic: RED vs. BLUE: Endgame
- Replies: 2588
- Views: 63763
Re: RED vs. BLUE: Day 5
Those are the Golden concerns I wanted to get out there; I encourage y'all to give me feedback. I'm open to hearing cases against anyone else too, this is a difficult scenario (3 vs. 1 always is) and I hope we can give it the proper effort. Win or lose, I want to feel like town gave themselves a chance here.
- Sat Sep 10, 2016 1:37 pm
- Forum: Previous Heists
- Topic: RED vs. BLUE: Endgame
- Replies: 2588
- Views: 63763
Re: RED vs. BLUE: Day 5
The matter of Golden has to be processed through the dynamic he has generated with INH. On Day 4, Golden struck me as someone who was willing to entertain anyone as a suspect except INH. At this stage of the game, and considering he has suspected INH earlier in the game, that suggests to me that only two universes are likely:
1. He has information on INH.
2. He knows INH is town because he's the serial killer.
At this point I lean toward the latter option. Golden has never claimed to have information (and he couldn't if he did because of the no infodumping rule). However, the following post looks to me like a soft claim that he does not have information:
I have been wholly unsuccessful in that endeavor. I don't know what I am supposed to see in INH's posts which would tell me something about Golden. I have suggested before that there may be potential for civilian BTSC (INH discarded that theory himself), or some other one-way information. That's why I asked INH this question yesterday:
1. Golden was so sure of his read on INH that he was unwilling to even consider him a candidate in a 5 vs. 1 scenario when we're pursuing a SK (meaning there's no team dynamic to make INH look better like there was with his defenses of me earlier in the game).
2. Golden is the serial killer and knows INH is town. His motive in this scenario can be debated, but the potential gains are readily visible: maintain his alliance with INH (they may not have agreed on much in this game, but that doesn't matter as much as where their votes fall), and proceed into a final LyLo phase with at least one critical voting ally. That's a crucial benefit.
#1 strikes me as very reckless, even for the "hurricane of self-assurance". Eliminating people from mafia candidacy isn't so hard, but eliminating them from serial killer candidacy is extremely hard.
1. He has information on INH.
2. He knows INH is town because he's the serial killer.
At this point I lean toward the latter option. Golden has never claimed to have information (and he couldn't if he did because of the no infodumping rule). However, the following post looks to me like a soft claim that he does not have information:
He is, in vague terms, asking me to judge INH based on INH alone, not based on what Golden says about him. The problem here is that I have no actual idea what he means. He suggests that if I look into INH's own motives, I might better understand Golden's treatment of him.Golden wrote:Jay, until you start judging inh's motives instead of mine, you won't make sense of it. You are looking at it backwards.
Anyway, I'm surprised to have checked in before bed and see sloonei as a genuine candidate, but glad because I wanted my vote to be both meaningful and a place where I wanted it and now it hopefully will be. Voting sloonei.
I have been wholly unsuccessful in that endeavor. I don't know what I am supposed to see in INH's posts which would tell me something about Golden. I have suggested before that there may be potential for civilian BTSC (INH discarded that theory himself), or some other one-way information. That's why I asked INH this question yesterday:
This tells me that INH does not have information on Golden. He doesn't seem to suspect Golden primarily, but he acknowledges that he should be scrutinized just the same as a SK candidate. So if information exists, it has to be on Golden's end -- and like I said above, I think there's reason to doubt the information exists. So, drawing all of the above I am left with these two new options:insertnamehere wrote:Call it intuition, but I get the feeling you know what my answer is gonna be.JaggedJimmyJay wrote:INH, regardless of your actual level of suspicion, do you consider Golden 2.0 to be a player who should be scrutinized fully and as an at least possible serial killer?
I believe all players should be scrutinized fully, and considered in all possible roles.
This extends to Golden possibly being a serial killer, yes.
1. Golden was so sure of his read on INH that he was unwilling to even consider him a candidate in a 5 vs. 1 scenario when we're pursuing a SK (meaning there's no team dynamic to make INH look better like there was with his defenses of me earlier in the game).
2. Golden is the serial killer and knows INH is town. His motive in this scenario can be debated, but the potential gains are readily visible: maintain his alliance with INH (they may not have agreed on much in this game, but that doesn't matter as much as where their votes fall), and proceed into a final LyLo phase with at least one critical voting ally. That's a crucial benefit.
#1 strikes me as very reckless, even for the "hurricane of self-assurance". Eliminating people from mafia candidacy isn't so hard, but eliminating them from serial killer candidacy is extremely hard.
- Sat Sep 10, 2016 1:14 pm
- Forum: Previous Heists
- Topic: RED vs. BLUE: Endgame
- Replies: 2588
- Views: 63763
Re: RED vs. BLUE: Day 4
The highlighted sentence reads a little cooked to me, like Golden felt he needed to say more about voting Sloonei than he actually needed to say (over-transparency, which would imply effortful transparency instead of natural transparency). He'd already made it clear earlier in the phase that Sloonei was a vote he could agree with.Golden wrote:Jay, until you start judging inh's motives instead of mine, you won't make sense of it. You are looking at it backwards.
Anyway, I'm surprised to have checked in before bed and see sloonei as a genuine candidate, but glad because I wanted my vote to be both meaningful and a place where I wanted it and now it hopefully will be. Voting sloonei.
What about the Quin lynch would you call "explicable", Golden?Golden wrote:I found it very surprising to wake up to, but entirely explicable once I read back.JaggedJimmyJay wrote:He thought you were the best case when he left. He wasn't here for the Quin development, no idea what he'd think of it.Sloonei wrote:Why is Golden even voting for me?
I can give no genuine reaction to how I would have voted because I saw the reveal first.
Regarding the highlighted portion, this is a contrast to a moment from town Golden 1.0 earlier in the game:
As a townie, he was willing to say who he would have likely voted for if he'd been present at EOD, despite the fact that it could be perceived as WIFOM. Now as Golden 2.0, he is not so willing to employ WIFOM.Golden wrote:It's easy for me to say after seeing scotty's lynch, but I do believe if I were around for EoD I would have switched to inh. But, y'know - wifom.
It's just one of those things about having to vote 7 or 8 hours before the deadline. Sorry Scotty.
- Sat Sep 10, 2016 1:07 pm
- Forum: Previous Heists
- Topic: RED vs. BLUE: Endgame
- Replies: 2588
- Views: 63763
Re: RED vs. BLUE: Day 5
Marmot's reasons for suspecting Sloonei late in the phase, though seemingly weak on the surface, also strike me as genuine. I also like that he was willing to eliminate people from SK candidacy, to include Wilgy 2.0, myself, and even Golden (though I think his reasoning for that one is incorrect). He's been narrowing his own suspect pool and restricting his options, which isn't what I'd anticipate from an LMS independent right now.
- Sat Sep 10, 2016 1:05 pm
- Forum: Previous Heists
- Topic: RED vs. BLUE: Endgame
- Replies: 2588
- Views: 63763
Re: RED vs. BLUE: Day 4
This reads honestly to me, especially the last sentence. I didn't feel great about it either (lynching someone who wasn't present at the time), but I felt it was still the best option available.insertnamehere wrote:Voted Sloonei.
I think both him and Quin have cases directed at them with decent reasoning behind them, but I still see Sloonei as the SK more than I do Quin.
Plus, I don't like surprise lynching someone who made clear that they wouldn't be around at EoD.
- Sat Sep 10, 2016 1:04 pm
- Forum: Previous Heists
- Topic: RED vs. BLUE: Endgame
- Replies: 2588
- Views: 63763
Re: RED vs. BLUE: Day 4
Generally, during the end of Day 4 as the final votes were falling in, I thought everyone involved (INH, Sloonei, and MM) looked more genuine than not. They appeared to be invested in the votes they were making and holding their breath for the results. It can be faked, but that's what I read on the surface.
There is one MM post that bugs me though, and it's this WIFOM nuke. Talk about it, Marmot.
There is one MM post that bugs me though, and it's this WIFOM nuke. Talk about it, Marmot.
Metalmarsh89 wrote:Can I just have my banner now?
- Sat Sep 10, 2016 12:47 pm
- Forum: Previous Heists
- Topic: RED vs. BLUE: Endgame
- Replies: 2588
- Views: 63763
Re: RED vs. BLUE: Day 5
First instinct tells me Golden. I'll review everything and see where I end up.
- Fri Sep 09, 2016 10:37 pm
- Forum: Previous Heists
- Topic: RED vs. BLUE: Endgame
- Replies: 2588
- Views: 63763
Re: RED vs. BLUE: Night 4
Unfortunately I don't have time to try to work this out during the night phase. In the event that I am not present in the day phase, I would just recommend everyone keep an open mind. Preconceived reads without meaningful basis in evidence (as I believe any serial killer reads are going to be) can be dangerous and make manipulation easier. Challenge everyone else thoroughly before you make your final choice.
- Fri Sep 09, 2016 7:59 pm
- Forum: Previous Heists
- Topic: RED vs. BLUE: Endgame
- Replies: 2588
- Views: 63763
Re: RED vs. BLUE: Night 4
Mafia has become too big a headache lately. Next time I play I'm bringing back Neil Hartley.
- Fri Sep 09, 2016 7:21 pm
- Forum: Previous Heists
- Topic: RED vs. BLUE: Endgame
- Replies: 2588
- Views: 63763
Re: RED vs. BLUE: Night 4
INH, regardless of your actual level of suspicion, do you consider Golden 2.0 to be a player who should be scrutinized fully and as an at least possible serial killer?
- Fri Sep 09, 2016 7:15 pm
- Forum: Previous Heists
- Topic: RED vs. BLUE: Endgame
- Replies: 2588
- Views: 63763
Re: RED vs. BLUE: Day 4
Maybe. At the moment the two people I am most wary of are you and Golden.Sloonei wrote:Have you changed your mind?
- Fri Sep 09, 2016 7:08 pm
- Forum: Previous Heists
- Topic: RED vs. BLUE: Endgame
- Replies: 2588
- Views: 63763
Re: RED vs. BLUE: Day 4
Not of a fan of this one, Sloonei.Sloonei wrote:Jay and I have played a thousand games together and he is reading me as town.
- Fri Sep 09, 2016 7:06 pm
- Forum: Previous Heists
- Topic: RED vs. BLUE: Endgame
- Replies: 2588
- Views: 63763
Re: RED vs. BLUE: Night 4
Mafia is stupid.
- Fri Sep 09, 2016 4:23 pm
- Forum: Previous Heists
- Topic: RED vs. BLUE: Endgame
- Replies: 2588
- Views: 63763
Re: RED vs. BLUE: Night 4
If not Quin then who?
- Fri Sep 09, 2016 4:17 pm
- Forum: Previous Heists
- Topic: RED vs. BLUE: Endgame
- Replies: 2588
- Views: 63763
Re: RED vs. BLUE: Night 4
Sloonei, you seemed desperate to evade the lynch on a probable LyLo-eve. Would you agree with that assessment?
My phone just offered to autocomplete "Sloon" into "Sloonbeard".
My phone just offered to autocomplete "Sloon" into "Sloonbeard".
- Fri Sep 09, 2016 3:57 pm
- Forum: Previous Heists
- Topic: RED vs. BLUE: Endgame
- Replies: 2588
- Views: 63763
Re: RED vs. BLUE: Night 4
I won't be sure it's not Quin until G-Man reiterates it.
If it isn't him, I'll reassess everything again. I don't trust any of you bastards.
If it isn't him, I'll reassess everything again. I don't trust any of you bastards.
- Fri Sep 09, 2016 3:42 pm
- Forum: Previous Heists
- Topic: RED vs. BLUE: Endgame
- Replies: 2588
- Views: 63763
Re: RED vs. BLUE: Night 4
Well I hope that's another tease.
- Fri Sep 09, 2016 3:01 pm
- Forum: Previous Heists
- Topic: RED vs. BLUE: Endgame
- Replies: 2588
- Views: 63763
Re: RED vs. BLUE: Day 4
neither or
no speaka no engrish
no speaka no engrish
- Fri Sep 09, 2016 3:00 pm
- Forum: Previous Heists
- Topic: RED vs. BLUE: Endgame
- Replies: 2588
- Views: 63763
Re: RED vs. BLUE: Day 4
At the very least, this suspense period is increasing my resolve that neither Sloonei or MM is a serial killer.