The Syndicate

Dom wrote: ↑Sat Oct 19, 2019 12:39 pm ....you're mislynch bait, but tsp isn't?

Hahahaha

This thing has gone FULL CIRCLE.

TSP definitely would have been mislynch bait were it not for my constant vouching. That’s my whole point.

What I really need is to know *multiple* suspects from the gang. I don’t care if I’m suspected or even lynched, frankly. At this point the game needs me dead. Just have your backups ready and in mind, and some leads you care to follow.

Especially if it isn’t Fayt!

Dom wrote: ↑Sat Oct 19, 2019 12:37 pm ...why would they not just kill you?

I thought the cats might kill me! Were it only. There are other ways to deal with me. Also I’m mislynch bait.

Dom wrote: ↑Sat Oct 19, 2019 12:34 pm

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Sat Oct 19, 2019 12:33 pm

nutella wrote: ↑Sat Oct 19, 2019 12:27 pm Seriously, the teasing "hint-dropping" about whether or not you would have killed Tony just made the whole thing look worse on you.

And that’s my fault. I had just done something super cool, and I wanted others to pick up on it. At face value, pre-explanation, me killing TSP should at least be dubilus. So I hoped folks would dig into it. I poked Mac in particular because he’s the tinfoiliest name in my POE. I wanted to see him figure it out himself to show me that he truly gave a shit about my alignment.

why would fayt kill tsp?

She and speedchuck thought I had a reason for calling him King Green in all of my reads. Certainly speedchuck did.

nutella wrote: ↑Sat Oct 19, 2019 12:32 pm Yeah, what Dom said. You spent quite a decent chunk of time right after the night post putting together all the speed analysis; if you could do that then you surely could have explained the iron man experiment around the same time as a parallel reaction to the other night death. If you were at your computer then, why was that not among your priorities at the time? You actually just contradicted yourself. You said you planted the hints because you weren't on your computer, but that was at the same time you were doing the speed posts, and you just said you were at your computer for those.

Priority number one is *always* interactions. Hunting before defending. I not too long after those for dinner and other such fun, and there you have it.

I look forward to my death. It will be dramatic. It may be more dramatic as a vig kill, since people will be able to respond to it immediately.

nutella wrote: ↑Sat Oct 19, 2019 12:27 pm Seriously, the teasing "hint-dropping" about whether or not you would have killed Tony just made the whole thing look worse on you.

And that’s my fault. I had just done something super cool, and I wanted others to pick up on it. At face value, pre-explanation, me killing TSP should at least be dubilus. So I hoped folks would dig into it. I poked Mac in particular because he’s the tinfoiliest name in my POE. I wanted to see him figure it out himself to show me that he truly gave a shit about my alignment.

Dom wrote: ↑Sat Oct 19, 2019 12:28 pm

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Sat Oct 19, 2019 12:26 pm

nutella wrote: ↑Sat Oct 19, 2019 12:25 pm

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Sat Oct 19, 2019 12:24 pm

nutella wrote: ↑Sat Oct 19, 2019 12:20 pm

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Sat Oct 19, 2019 12:16 pm For all the “Jay put too much effort into the defense” shite, I can provide an explanation and see who even gives a damn.

We keep blowing leads this year, Syndicate civilians. Over and over. Scrimmage, Steely Dan, Shockheaded Peter, that one game where Quin (I think?) was the last mafia.

People have spent the whole game telling me how catty I am, with incredibly confident tones at times, and I am according a high-probability mislynch on any day for the remainder of the game. If that happens, we’re that much closer the blowing another lead. So yes, I put effort into explaining why I feel that TSP kill was a cat mistake which should exonerate me. The alternative theory is completely stupid tinfoil junk. I genuinely hoped folks would see that. Unfortunately that hasn’t happened and my effort to get out of mislynch range backfired.

A vigilante is a good solution to the Jay problem — even if that means vigging Fayt after I’m lynched.

I just feel like if the whole "Iron Man Experiment" thing was real, you'd have been way more eager to tell us much sooner after Tony was NKed. Instead you waited to see if you really had to do it.

Look at my very first post of the day phase. It’s right there.

No it isn't. Your first couple points teased it. You didn't want to actually reveal the whole thing. You wanted to breadcrumb and see if Mac/the rest of us could conclude that you were civ from it, and when we didn't you got frustrated and took a gamble.

I couldn’t explain in any manner that I expected to make sense without compiling posts and consolidating my explanation. I wanted my computer. So yes, I teased it until I could tell it. Consider them blockbuster trailers for the big event.

But you could put together those posts with interactions with sppedchuck?

I did those at the office. I do work on Fridays. Then I left the office to spend time with my friends. Then I went home. Then I went back to the office. Hoowee!

Actually Fayt had a 3-0 lead in the poll. I had no votes. This conversation befuddles me to my doggy dog core.

Dom wrote: ↑Sat Oct 19, 2019 12:26 pm

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Sat Oct 19, 2019 12:23 pm Well this has gotten silly. You guys are silly.

I went to the office at 1, and I sat there on my computer in this here Mafia thread for a while. Then at like 3 or whenever I was tired and took my gear home. I leave my laptop at my office all the time since I don’t really have a desk at home. I certainly didn’t expect to explain all this.

If you didn't want to explain it, then don't bring in the location of your laptop as a barrier of posting your apparent guarnateed civ card.

Oh sure, follow whatever lead you like. It’s just one I didn’t anticipate lol

nutella wrote: ↑Sat Oct 19, 2019 12:25 pm

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Sat Oct 19, 2019 12:24 pm

nutella wrote: ↑Sat Oct 19, 2019 12:20 pm

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Sat Oct 19, 2019 12:16 pm For all the “Jay put too much effort into the defense” shite, I can provide an explanation and see who even gives a damn.

We keep blowing leads this year, Syndicate civilians. Over and over. Scrimmage, Steely Dan, Shockheaded Peter, that one game where Quin (I think?) was the last mafia.

People have spent the whole game telling me how catty I am, with incredibly confident tones at times, and I am according a high-probability mislynch on any day for the remainder of the game. If that happens, we’re that much closer the blowing another lead. So yes, I put effort into explaining why I feel that TSP kill was a cat mistake which should exonerate me. The alternative theory is completely stupid tinfoil junk. I genuinely hoped folks would see that. Unfortunately that hasn’t happened and my effort to get out of mislynch range backfired.

A vigilante is a good solution to the Jay problem — even if that means vigging Fayt after I’m lynched.

I just feel like if the whole "Iron Man Experiment" thing was real, you'd have been way more eager to tell us much sooner after Tony was NKed. Instead you waited to see if you really had to do it.

Look at my very first post of the day phase. It’s right there.

No it isn't. Your first couple points teased it. You didn't want to actually reveal the whole thing. You wanted to breadcrumb and see if Mac/the rest of us could conclude that you were civ from it, and when we didn't you got frustrated and took a gamble.

I couldn’t explain in any manner that I expected to make sense without compiling posts and consolidating my explanation. I wanted my computer. So yes, I teased it until I could tell it. Consider them blockbuster trailers for the big event.

Also “really had to do it” is ludicrous when Fayt had a 3-1 lead in the poll.

nutella wrote: ↑Sat Oct 19, 2019 12:20 pm

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Sat Oct 19, 2019 12:16 pm For all the “Jay put too much effort into the defense” shite, I can provide an explanation and see who even gives a damn.

We keep blowing leads this year, Syndicate civilians. Over and over. Scrimmage, Steely Dan, Shockheaded Peter, that one game where Quin (I think?) was the last mafia.

People have spent the whole game telling me how catty I am, with incredibly confident tones at times, and I am according a high-probability mislynch on any day for the remainder of the game. If that happens, we’re that much closer the blowing another lead. So yes, I put effort into explaining why I feel that TSP kill was a cat mistake which should exonerate me. The alternative theory is completely stupid tinfoil junk. I genuinely hoped folks would see that. Unfortunately that hasn’t happened and my effort to get out of mislynch range backfired.

A vigilante is a good solution to the Jay problem — even if that means vigging Fayt after I’m lynched.

I just feel like if the whole "Iron Man Experiment" thing was real, you'd have been way more eager to tell us much sooner after Tony was NKed. Instead you waited to see if you really had to do it.

Look at my very first post of the day phase. It’s right there.

Well this has gotten silly. You guys are silly.

I went to the office at 1, and I sat there on my computer in this here Mafia thread for a while. Then at like 3 or whenever I was tired and took my gear home. I leave my laptop at my office all the time since I don’t really have a desk at home. I certainly didn’t expect to explain all this.

Dom wrote: ↑Sat Oct 19, 2019 12:17 pm I haven't spent the whole game telling you how catty you are so cut that bullshit.

If you like, stick a “some” in front of people.

Dom wrote: ↑Sat Oct 19, 2019 12:10 pm How far away is your office?

About a 5-7 minute drive.

It’s quite common for me to be there during that time frame really. I may need therapy, but it’s the truth!

For all the “Jay put too much effort into the defense” shite, I can provide an explanation and see who even gives a damn.

We keep blowing leads this year, Syndicate civilians. Over and over. Scrimmage, Steely Dan, Shockheaded Peter, that one game where Quin (I think?) was the last mafia.

People have spent the whole game telling me how catty I am, with incredibly confident tones at times, and I am according a high-probability mislynch on any day for the remainder of the game. If that happens, we’re that much closer the blowing another lead. So yes, I put effort into explaining why I feel that TSP kill was a cat mistake which should exonerate me. The alternative theory is completely stupid tinfoil junk. I genuinely hoped folks would see that. Unfortunately that hasn’t happened and my effort to get out of mislynch range backfired.

A vigilante is a good solution to the Jay problem — even if that means vigging Fayt after I’m lynched.

I literally drove to my office at 1 AM, yes. I was excited about sharing my experiment, and I am a ridiculous human being.

Dragomir wrote: ↑Sat Oct 19, 2019 6:27 am I have an idea. Let's lynch Fayt, if he's not the last mafia. Vig shoots Jay next night.

I am completely fine with that as long as it does not take an entire mislynch away from the dog’s number available. The margin for error means everything.

9 vs. 1 now.
ML and kill —> 7 vs. 1
ML and kill —> 5 vs. 1
ML and kill —> 3 vs. 1 —> MyLo
—> 3 mislynches

9 vs. 1 now.
ML, kill, and JJJ vigged —> 6 vs. 1
ML and kill —> 4 vs. 1
ML and kill —> 2 vs. 1 —> LyLo
—> 3 mislynches

So on paper here it looks okay. Indeed the latter could be called better; 2 vs. 1 is generally better than 3 vs. 1.

So if Fayt is a dog and mister or madame vigilante out there decides to shoot me, cool. Good move. Just ensure you thoroughly review all of the roles in the game in case some little detail can screw this up. Anything pertaining to kills or vote manipulation can apply.

Having me alive at LyLo may just mean we lose given how hard it is to get folks to hear me. So I want to be nowhere near that.

I hope my numbers are sound.

Michelle wrote: ↑Sat Oct 19, 2019 6:41 am What i dislike at JJJ is that he puts me in the Poe without thinking i don't know the old members like TH and if i were to NK someone if i'd be wolf it would be anyone i know between people i already played with. And i would ignore also TSP because he posted so low that i even didn't notice him.
This is an elementary logic and this is not a defense, i am pointing out he needs me in that Poe to support his narrative.

I can’t discount you conclusively from killing Turnip Head or TSP. Again you don’t seem to understand what my POE is about. When I remove someone on the basis of the TH kill, it’s because I can make an assertion confidently. My knowledge of an experience playing with folks like Epignosis and Dom et al certainly plays a role. I simply do not know enough about you to derive the same confidence from any kill. The points you make are even fair points! Maybe you would be more inclined to kill someone you know. I could see that. I am not confident of that.

At this point in the game, I have a reason to call every single player in this game a civilian and feel pretty good about it except Fayt. I actively suspect Fayt most too. That’s why I voted for Fayt. I have to recognize though that I am not a perfect player, and all of the reasoning that brings me to my vote can still end up wrong. So I name players that I think make the most sense as alternatives to fill the 4-name POE that the current numbers ratio affords me. That’s why you’re in it. That’s why Dragomir is in it. That’s why MacDougall is in it. I think all three of you are more likely to be dogs. But I get four.

At least if that contributes to my mislynch it gives speedchuck some compensation for the perceived angleshooting. That’ll be an interesting post-game conversation. I can see the argument, but I’m not sure it isn’t just meta.

And no, I’d never kill TH on Night 1 of this game. I know that’s true and I find solace in that.

MacDougall wrote: ↑Sat Oct 19, 2019 4:15 am Jay: I'd never kill TH.
Also Jay: Iron Man Experiment. A million interaction analysis. Good old fashioned Sprityo lynch.

I don’t regret that lynch. He’d still be in the POE today. It’s a process. Y’all can’t hang.

MacDougall wrote: ↑Sat Oct 19, 2019 4:16 am Jay has more wim than anyone. He outed when he tried to make out he'd not kill TH. Never look back. Self vote.

I might. We’re nearing that point where my survival is detrimental.

I think the cat is just Fayt, so I’m at peace. Dogs don’t listen. That’s a big reason why this Mafia game thing we play even works.

Y’all need four player POEs. I see three viable candidates: Fayt, Dragomir, Michelle. I lean strongly toward Fayt. If I’m the fourth name then whatever. The game should be in hand if you people don’t go into nutty mode if/when I’m dead.

I don’t care about the rest of that, because one part of it annoys the shit out of me.

I have lied about one thing in this game: that meta reads are good enough to make a guy with no content a civilian.

So you can take your “caught lying” shite and piss right off.

Also you’d know how much effort I’ve given to hunting if you’d bother to read my shit. This is your MO lately Mac and I hope you fix it. In Persona 5 I literally solved the game, and you hounded me for not solving enough (you didn’t read my stuff).

Now I will finally sleep. I will be making a drive tomorrow afternoon which may interfere with my time here. We'll see what happens. I should be around at least some before I leave though.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Sat Oct 19, 2019 3:05 am nutella made a point about Dragomir being in good shape by way of the Day 2 voting. The raw end poll corroborates that: Dragomir had 3 votes, and was the largest counter to the sprityo lynch. So speedchuck had an out if he wanted to keep Dragomir alive. I think this needs to be qualified with the timing of votes, so hopefully people called them.

nutella's post for reference. She brought this up first, to her credit. I went through and compiled all of the votes I could find that were either called outright, or that I could estimate based upon context clues and my own memory of events. I may not be entirely correct about the vote counts per player.

Oct 16
4:46pm - JJJ V Fayt (1)
~~ 10:06pm - Epi V JJJ (1)
10:38pm - nova V JJJ (2)
11:14pm - Dom V Dragomir (1)
11:15pm - JJJ V Dom (1)

Oct 17
~~ 12:05am - Epi V Dragomir (2)
12:38am - JJJ V sprityo (1)
~~12:54am? - Mac V JJJ (2)
2:07am - Mac V nutella (1)
2:21am - nutella V Dom (1)
2:39am - LC V JJJ (2)
2:46am - nutella V JJJ (3)
9:18am - Michelle V JJJ (4)
9:19am - Michelle V LC (1)
11:54am - Fayt V LC (2)
12:02pm - speedchuck V nutella (2)
~~12:34pm - sprityo V Dragomir (3)
12:49pm - nutella V sprityo (2)
2:18pm - nova V sprityo (3)
---> 4:03pm speedchuck's last post of the day
4:04pm - Fayt V sprityo (4)

Please don't confuse the colors with indicators of alignment. I am just color-coding the three wagons that seem most important here: the one on Dragomir (the point of this post is to assess him), nutella (where speedchuck voted), and sprityo (the eventual lynch). I colored speedchuck's vote red to emphasize it; Mac's is orange to complete the wagon of two.

If my numbers are correct, when speedchuck made his last post of the day, this was the tally:

Dragomir - 3
sprityo - 3
nutella - 2 (with speedchuck)

So, if speedchuck specifically wanted to keep Dragomir around, the option to vote sprityo was there for him for a while. Fayt ended up doing it soon after anyway. Instead speedchuck stayed on nutella and just let it go -- perhaps an indicator that he knew his team was okay regardless of whether Dragomir or sprityo ended up dead. That would be good for Dragomir.

[mention]nutella[/mention], whenever you're awake, can you please indicate if you had something like this in mind, or if your reasoning is something else.

If Dragomir can be exonerated, the game is further constricted to the point of inevitable solution. It's a very important slot to solve.

nutella made a point about Dragomir being in good shape by way of the Day 2 voting. The raw end poll corroborates that: Dragomir had 3 votes, and was the largest counter to the sprityo lynch. So speedchuck had an out if he wanted to keep Dragomir alive. I think this needs to be qualified with the timing of votes, so hopefully people called them.

nutella wrote: ↑Sat Oct 19, 2019 2:29 am .....That is the hugest and possibly most transparent load of bullshit I've ever seen from you. You are evil and planned this entire thing. You *admit* to it. And your cover story doesn't check out. You *did* have reason to townread him -- how different his behavior was from P5. And don't give me that "meta is bullshit" crap. It was a real enough reason to assume Tony was town here; I heavily agreed with it. And he was absolutely not mislynch bait, ever, especially because you planted the townread of him anyway. In no world was he mislynch bait. Holy shit lmao. You just set this up to claim that. I see right through your little experiment.[VOTE: jay] aubergine

I think if you step back and think about the highlighted bit you'll identify a problem with your reasoning.

[mention]nutella[/mention], can you expand on why you don't think it can be Michelle? If she can removed from the POE then none of this junk matters and the game is probably over anyway.

nutella wrote: ↑Sat Oct 19, 2019 2:54 am

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Sat Oct 19, 2019 2:51 am

nutella wrote: ↑Sat Oct 19, 2019 2:47 am

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Sat Oct 19, 2019 2:45 am We're living in a hypothetical world here. That's the whole point.

I get that but you still said "I just lynched sprityo" whereas I, a townie, think of it as merely "I participated in a sprityo lynch" and it's your tone in a few other places. I can't be assed to find it rn but there was something earlier that struck me as a similar perspective slip but I shrugged it off at the time.

I was the first on his wagon, and I was the most frequent promoter of his demise. No, I did not lynch him alone, but plenty of the blame lies with me. The point here is that if I am a cat and I drove a sprityo mislynch for my own gain, driving a Tony mislynch would have not been a terribly different enterprise. I have done things like that as a mafioso in probably every game I have had the role. It's essential.

Except you had some content to base the sprityo lynch on. There was something to go on. The same could not be said for Tony. I would not have joined you there because there would be no reasoning.

If sprityo is dead today and there isn't a clear consensus on the direction with Tony alive, you can be absolutely certain that I will view Tony as an option to pursue. Not everyone will go for it, but I don't need everyone. That's the game.

In some future game, use that against me. Because I will definitely do it.

Fayt's a cat, so if y'all get your rocks off on me don't be silly after I'm gone please.

Fayt wrote: ↑Sat Oct 19, 2019 2:46 am And I also reconsidered my read to you but you're on the lower spectrum because I am wondering if you are the last cat, what would be your plan afterwards if/when you mislynch me because 1. you jumped off of Rej. 2. went after sprityo. 3. going after me. Who is going to believe you at this point.

I don't understand this point. If I am the last cat, then anyone I try to lynch in this game is a dog -- whether you or whoever else. So why is it special that I am going after you?

Michelle wrote: ↑Sat Oct 19, 2019 2:48 am

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Sat Oct 19, 2019 2:41 am

nutella wrote: ↑Sat Oct 19, 2019 2:40 am Tony was never, ever, EVER going to gain momentum as a lynch. That's just the truth, and you knew it. So you nked him. And conveniently tried to make it look good for you. You're a goddamn mastermind, and maybe this could have worked if you had treated his slot a little differently. But as it is, you ended up with a couple holes that I am seeing through despite your panicked facade of confidence.

Dude. I just lynched sprityo. I could have lynched Tony if I wanted to. There is no facade here. There is abject confusion at the reality of the conversation that I am having right now. I am absolutely a dog, and this universe I find myself in is absolutely ridiculous.

you know what the problem is? You just voted for him. You needed town help for the lynch.
The bolded is fake

See above. I "led" the lynch. To me the difference is trivial. It's mafiababble.

nutella wrote: ↑Sat Oct 19, 2019 2:47 am

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Sat Oct 19, 2019 2:45 am We're living in a hypothetical world here. That's the whole point.

I get that but you still said "I just lynched sprityo" whereas I, a townie, think of it as merely "I participated in a sprityo lynch" and it's your tone in a few other places. I can't be assed to find it rn but there was something earlier that struck me as a similar perspective slip but I shrugged it off at the time.

I was the first on his wagon, and I was the most frequent promoter of his demise. No, I did not lynch him alone, but plenty of the blame lies with me. The point here is that if I am a cat and I drove a sprityo mislynch for my own gain, driving a Tony mislynch would have not been a terribly different enterprise. I have done things like that as a mafioso in probably every game I have had the role. It's essential.

Defending myself may have been a mistake. That much is already apparent. If the WIFOM allergy is prevalent, then I have made myself more likely to be lynched than before, and that's a bummer. Next time I will consider keeping my fun experiments to myself. I hate hiding anything as a civilian, but sometimes one has to be mindful of the way other civilians tend to think. Where there's any perceived room for a mastermind plot, the mastermind plot will probably reign.

Michelle wrote: ↑Sat Oct 19, 2019 2:44 am

nutella wrote: ↑Sat Oct 19, 2019 2:32 am Assumption 2 is based on a false premise. "Mislynch bait" my doggy ass.

i like the tone here no matter JJJ's alignament she is sassy and i saw scum Nutella sweeter and non confrontational.

nutella is a dog. She's just swirling into an overconfident snowball over something that I am not sure I will ever understand. It happens.

We're living in a hypothetical world here. That's the whole point.

nutella wrote: ↑Sat Oct 19, 2019 2:41 am

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Sat Oct 19, 2019 2:39 am To be clear, I'm not calling you dumb nutella. I'm calling the JJJ you think I am a giant moron.

The inane "thesis" framing wasn't helping your case.

Sometimes I like to be creative and silly.

nutella wrote: ↑Sat Oct 19, 2019 2:40 am Tony was never, ever, EVER going to gain momentum as a lynch. That's just the truth, and you knew it. So you nked him. And conveniently tried to make it look good for you. You're a goddamn mastermind, and maybe this could have worked if you had treated his slot a little differently. But as it is, you ended up with a couple holes that I am seeing through despite your panicked facade of confidence.

Dude. I just lynched sprityo. I could have lynched Tony if I wanted to. There is no facade here. There is abject confusion at the reality of the conversation that I am having right now. I am absolutely a dog, and this universe I find myself in is absolutely ridiculous.

To be clear, I'm not calling you dumb nutella. I'm calling the JJJ you think I am a giant moron.

Like, I am actually glad that what you're saying is wrong. It is a relief to me. As dumb as I might be sometimes, and I can be dumb, I'm not that dumb. Thank goodness.

nutella wrote: ↑Sat Oct 19, 2019 2:36 am

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Sat Oct 19, 2019 2:34 am

nutella wrote: ↑Sat Oct 19, 2019 2:32 am Assumption 2 is based on a false premise. "Mislynch bait" my doggy ass.

If I am a cat in this game, I view TSP as one of the most obvious mislynch opportunities on the board. I never bother taking him off the board in the first place with this fancy bullshit ploy. I just lynch him. And I bet I succeed.

No. Not even remotely realistic. I'm actually incredulous right now at how obviously you're lying.

I am honestly baffled that you feel that way. Seriously. Genuinely. I am baffled. It makes zero sense. I don't know what to say to you.

Common sense is dead. Y'all do what you do. Honestly I can't even be bothered at this point. There's just no accounting for the shit that happens inside the heads of people playing Mafia.

nutella wrote: ↑Sat Oct 19, 2019 2:32 am Assumption 2 is based on a false premise. "Mislynch bait" my doggy ass.

If I am a cat in this game, I view TSP as one of the most obvious mislynch opportunities on the board. I never bother taking him off the board in the first place with this fancy bullshit ploy. I just lynch him. And I bet I succeed.

nutella wrote: ↑Sat Oct 19, 2019 2:31 am I don't care what makes more sense. I care that your argument has actual gaping holes in it. Because it is entirely fabricated.

There is no way I ever seriously give 3-post TSP a civilian card in this game on the basis of Persona 5 lol. That's a terrible read.

Whatever y'all decide, my thing worked out perfectly and I am really proud of that. It's something brand new in my civilian arsenal that I think I can use in the future.

nutella wrote: ↑Sat Oct 19, 2019 2:29 am .....That is the hugest and possibly most transparent load of bullshit I've ever seen from you. You are evil and planned this entire thing. You *admit* to it. And your cover story doesn't check out. You *did* have reason to townread him -- how different his behavior was from P5. And don't give me that "meta is bullshit" crap. It was a real enough reason to assume Tony was town here; I heavily agreed with it. And he was absolutely not mislynch bait, ever, especially because you planted the townread of him anyway. In no world was he mislynch bait. Holy shit lmao. You just set this up to claim that. I see right through your little experiment.[VOTE: jay] aubergine

Cat JJJ thinks civilians care about WIFOM defenses.

Okay.

Fayt wrote: ↑Sat Oct 19, 2019 2:28 am hello sorry. I had a very long day at work and I'm not feeling very well so apologies if I don't reply right away. Regarding my vote last phase, it was rushed. I went on kinda late before the lynch and ended up being not confident in the LC vote. I was waffling between Dragomir and Sprityo but ended up with Sprityo cause I didn't like his posts and the people I townread also voted for him so I was a little more secure with that vote.

I know it doesn't look good for me on top of the very poor timing that I'm not feeling well too but if the lynch does happen for me, I hope my mislynch would go into finding the real scum.

I will listen to what you have to say when you're able to get there. The most important thing to me is this: if you're not the last cat, who is?

Feel better!

Michelle wrote: ↑Sat Oct 19, 2019 2:07 am is like we take this game with different approaches. You teoretise a thing that may be wrong. A Poe should have the players you are convinced they can flip red.
And fyi a good mafia may never be in your Poe like you construct it.
I've played games where a mafia effort was way bigger and townier than from any town in the game. That was a town loss because the Poe thing. Just saying.

Oh I realize it isn't a foolproof method. There is no strategy I have ever encountered in all my years of Mafia that can never be beaten. I have had some success on occasion though doing my thing.

My job is to assess everyone to the best of my ability and to make judgments. My judgments in this game have left me where I am now. I don't agree with the bit I highlighted in yellow. Indeed, the only cat read I have any confidence in right now is Fayt. The rest are alternatives that I cannot exonerate.

I am open to cases against anyone else too. Just give me the goods.

Seriously, I'm not going to drag this out into another endless wall post. I will be as concise as I can in attempting to convey this to you.

Dragon D. Luffy wrote: ↑Fri Oct 18, 2019 4:13 pm

American Shorthair (speedchuck) and Wire Fox Terrier (TonyStarkPrime) were killed.

Figure 1: The host's end of Night 2 post indicates the deaths of speedchuck, a cat, and TonyStarkPrime, a dog.

Consider Figure 1. The dog who was killed was TSP, a man who ended the game with three posts and no reads or stances among them. The cat team specifically elected to kill a player with this profile, who would otherwise be a mainstay by default in POE lists across the game. So let's examine why this may have happened:

My first Day 2 rainbow, Tony is green.



Here are some examples of me completely making up a b/s dog read on TSP and sticking to it through all of Day 2. It's nonsense. I had no reason to read him as a dog; he had nothing. Hence the Iron Man Experiment.

In recent memory, I have had one consistent method for dealing with the lowest-posting players in a game -- stick them in my POE and shrug. That means, to me, they are often lynches I will support (or at least that I am more willing than most others who fear low-hanging fruit or the like). It is a rational approach, but it can also be cold. sprityo was just a victim of this at least to some extent. While I had some suspicion of him based upon Rej's content, sprityo's own content left nothing at all to exonerate him with. So he was in the POE, and I lynch people in the POE. In sprityo's case, it was errant. So it goes.

With TSP, another guy who would generally be tossed into a POE bin, I tried something new. I pretended he was the doggiest dog in the world based upon essentially nothing, like a meta comparison to Persona 5. I was surprised when few people seemed to care. speedchuck did. I left the cat team to interpret that nonsense, and interpret it they did. They shot him in the face. It was one of a few possibilities:

1) I get shot in the face. Fine, I was a suspect anyway in the wake of the Long Con wagon.
2) Tony gets shot in the face. Great, the cats do our work for us.
3) Neither of these happens and the game goes on. Okay.

The early experiment results are quite promising!

So then when faced with the question: "Is JJJ a cat?", another question exists by extension: "Did JJJ kill TSP?"

That is to ask: "Did JJJ do all this stuff for the sole purpose of WIFOM, so that he could come here today and talk about it?" If one is to say yes to this, then that means the following must hold:
~ Cat JJJ shot a guy with three posts who could have otherwise been mislynch bait.
~ Cat JJJ thinks that losing this mislynch bait is a worthy sacrifice for the sake of pursuing a WIFOM defense.
~ Cat JJJ expects civilians to care about a WIFOM defense.

It's exactly this kind of stuff that brings me to often talk about "coulds" versus "probables". Could JJJ have done that as a cat? Yes, I could have from the perspectives of any other dog. That question is not very meaningful though, because anything could be anything. We can talk in circles about any theory in this way. The question that matters is this one: Did JJJ do that as a cat, or is he just a dog?

One of these worlds makes much more sense, and I can only hope folks will see that. I'm a dog. This should be strong evidence that I'm a dog. The third tilde up there in the cat hypotheticals applies to my dog form as well: I realize some people will just never care about something like this no matter how much sense it makes. Oh well. I have to try to speak to anyone who will pay attention.

There you have it. Take it or leave it. Sorry, this post still ended up bigger than I hoped.