The Syndicate

This is already updated in the site Hall of Fame thanks to the spreadsheet wizardry of the @Marmot.

Bo done good

Alison wrote: ↑Wed Mar 31, 2021 7:37 pm Like it's easy to say "just get there on Kyle so he isn't a liability in F3 any more 4head" but doing that has its own risks as well, which both of you should know, because you've both lost games by deviating from a POE which would have won the game because the wolf "acted townie" at endgame. I made the move that I calculated was able to both avert that risk by getting rid of the big question mark and also give town a chance to win fairly by playing a regular F3. We got rid of the question mark, but F3 crumpled instantly. That's life.

To be clear, I don't think eliminating Kyle first was "wrong", and indeed the final three y'all ended up with could have worked. I just don't think it was strictly necessary, or at least it shouldn't be strictly necessary. If it is strictly necessary, then at least one civilian has not played the game optimally.

Basically: if one finds themself saying "it is nearly impossible for me to view you as town" to anyone in a game that does not offer conclusive mechanical solutions, then that player could probably stand to take a step back and reconsider their world view -- especially if they are allowed to be alive in a final three. They may not necessarily change their mind, but it should be reasonably plausible to change their mind. Nothing's likely to be so kind to a probabilistic approach in a mountainous-adjacent game inherently designed to force players to rely upon behavioral reads.

Alison wrote: ↑Wed Mar 31, 2021 7:22 pmand I think that number is miniscule.

This is kind of what I mean. If the number truly was as minuscule as you believed it to be, then I think that's representative of suboptimal town play before the "who's going to F3" discussion even begins.

I think the game appeared to be lost when both Nanook and Kyle cooperatively sprayed their true civilian nature upon the thread when their deaths had been written in granite (quite prematurely), and the other civilians could not overcome the cognitive biases constructed through the game prior to recognize it and act upon it. It's not an easy thing to do, certainly. But them's the breaks.

nutella wrote: ↑Wed Mar 31, 2021 7:20 pm What jay said. The tunnel on kyle was unjustified fmpov and would deserve reevaluation in any case. If you weren't willing to recognize he was being quite towny even during f5, that's on you, sorry.

It looks like it would have been a good opportunity for a trustfall.

Alison-Kyle-BK --> Alison decides Kyle is town and votes BK
Martin-Kyle-BK --> Martin decides Kyle is town and votes BK
Mikey-Kyle-BK --> Mikey decides Kyle is town and votes BK (doesn't appear to me his inactivity was severe enough to presume a non-vote)

If any of these things is so unlikely that it is inconceivable, then that's not the fault of statistical probability -- it's the fault of erroneous town mindset(s).

Deciding a player must be eliminated given some set of inexact evidence (e.g. bad votes or associations in a near-mountainous game) is not precisely "optimal", at least in that it is less than the maximum possible potential of human deduction. It's a by-the-numbers approach, and in a final three that kind of mindset often needs to take a hike.

Granted, there may be/are probably some important contextual details I lack.

Context-deficient observer opinion:

Instant final three votes aren't ideal. But also, there are plenty of conceivable and even realistic worlds wherein Kyle is alive in F3 and wins the game.