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Good fight surviving town people, and great finish mafia. I think the game can generally be reduced to town tinfoil being directed for good reasons at the wrong person (the case against ilario could largely be transplanted onto Dizzy, but none of us got there in time). That's a credit to the mafia team as a whole. Nice job.

Thanks for the game everyone. I hope it goes our way. I appreciate your efforts.

[VOTE: Dolby] aubergine

@NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME that's hammer.

Final legacy:

I believe Dolby will flip mafia. If he somehow does not, then the entire game needs to be reassessed. That doesn't mean we have a free pass to panic; it could still be a reasonably POE-friendly scenario. But it does mean players will have to engage immediately and leave no stones unturned.

If Dolby does flip mafia, then I believe the most likely final two mafia are G-Man and ilario. My stance on that team increases with every minute that ilario doesn't make an appearance in this game. We're all busy sometimes, but we're at 24 hours into Day 4 now. At a certain point avoidance and morale must be considered. Stay the course until there is a good reason apparent that it shouldn't be stayed.

If that is not the team, then falcon would be my first fallback. Try your best regardless townies to stay awake, because if we're wrong anywhere then the best thing the mafia can have happen is for the thread to fall asleep.

Marmot is my top non-confirmed town read. Tony remains confirmed without a counter. Dizzy is my second-strongest town read, followed by NAA and Johanna who are comparable.

Marmot wrote: ↑Mon Sep 20, 2021 4:09 pm Let me know when you'd like to hammer Jay? I don't have much else to say today, but I know this is your last day.

I'll put it at L-1 whenever you're ready.

Go ahead. Now is a good time for our European friends.

Kinda feels like it.

It'd be cool if everyone could share their general impressions of the things G-Man has had to say over the past couple day phases, or to point to where they've already said it.

It’s kinda dumb but I would kill ilario before falcon just based on ilario not being here while falcon has been.

Marmot wrote: ↑Mon Sep 20, 2021 1:57 pm Is a SoA-Dolby-ilario-Dizzy world conceivable? :wowee:

That was my tinfoil team yesterday. I do think Dizzy is town though.

I would hesitate to rely on a meta comparison that specific, but sure it shows that at least one post can exist for a mafia falcon. I wouldn't call it an actual tendency without numerous more examples. I think falcon's M.O. makes that post a more predictable one regardless of alignment, when his sarcastic aggression is called "passive-aggressive".

Marmot wrote: ↑Mon Sep 20, 2021 1:33 pm JJJ is probably mafia, and mafia decided to kill him instead of town just to toy with us.

Town will never see it coming. Not even the ones that said it.

falcon45ca wrote: ↑Mon Sep 20, 2021 1:19 pm

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Mon Sep 20, 2021 1:18 pm If anyone has any final questions or concerns or requests for analysis or whatever for me, be sure to cram 'em in my face before I drop dead.

TSP plz

Without a counter-claimed fruit vendor, I view Tony as confirmed town without any concern at all. I also think his play very closely aligns to what I'd expect from a literal fruit vending Tony.

Haha, I'm confirmed town. I'm not even on the poll for people who really want to tinfoil. Haha I'm invincible. Haha I claim mafia. I'm on the mafia team. Haha whoa. Wowee. What a thing. Haha.

If anyone has any final questions or concerns or requests for analysis or whatever for me, be sure to cram 'em in my face before I drop dead.

ilario wrote: ↑Fri Sep 17, 2021 11:24 pm

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Fri Sep 17, 2021 8:18 pm @ilario just for the log, is Son of Anarch still a town read?

He’s been trending down and down

But that’s mostly because others are trending up and not so much due to the fact that he has done anything I find to be scummy

I think falcons reasoning for all his votes, like his recent vote on gman are all incredibly shallow and in a world where falcon is scum I feel better about soa

This post has been a bit of a smoking gun lingering in my brain. That last sentence brings together my entire team theory in one nicely collapsed moment.

ilario accuses falcon of making a shallow vote on G-Man (thereby defending G-Man) and suggests a mafia falcon flip would make him feel better about SoA (thereby endorsing a falcon elimination before an SoA elimination).

Johanna wrote: ↑Mon Sep 20, 2021 1:04 pmwhat is GTH?

gun-to-head read

Son of Anarch wrote: ↑Mon Sep 13, 2021 7:22 pm Ah man, can't say I'm stoked about that at all. My Internet was down until around this aftenoon so backreadin' wasn't really possible for me. I'm gonna say though that I still think Falcon Man's EOD wasn't the greatest and I'd like to hear some of the other thoughts on that.

Another interestin' thing is that if SPF is poisoned that might reflect well on the triad 'cause they were kinda all huddlin' together, yeah? Normally if you're tryin' to pocket someone you don't kill them. That's just a basic read though.

Son of Anarch wrote: ↑Mon Sep 13, 2021 7:37 pm

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Mon Sep 13, 2021 7:33 pm I just ran through the end of the day and frankly found it meaningless. That doesn't necessarily mean the posts cannot be assessed meaningfully, but that's why I don't care to play ketchup. The thread becomes a contextless void to me.

Would anyone be able to describe for me, as you saw it, the progression of events/posts/whatever that caused falcon to become a wagon? I poked in here and there when my phone was dying and saw votes on him, but had no context in the moment.

It's simple. Falcon Man at end of day voted Ilario, when my pal Dizzy told him no one was gonna vote Ilario he basically said that "you never know". Then when me and Dizzy gave him the ol' 1-2 vote and Stayposi joined in, he accused two of us of bein' mafia. One being me, as he scum read me earlier and the other person bein'... TBD... I don't think he ever clarified who the second scum on him was. So that gave me the confidence to just hold my vote and to watch what happened.

Son of Anarch wrote: ↑Tue Sep 14, 2021 12:03 am

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Mon Sep 13, 2021 11:59 pm

Son of Anarch wrote: ↑Mon Sep 13, 2021 11:57 pm If someone could ask me a few questions or somethin' to help me get on some sorta track that'd be swell

What would you say has changed most about your view of the game, if anything, since sig flipped town?

To be fully honest, not that much. I think Sloonei got a little scummier to me 'cause I didn't like the way he was handlin' the discussion between me and sig. I think it's kinda weird how we had more than one person sayin' sig was explicitly town rather than sayin' he should have more time to post, I already find Falcon Man to be the most suspicious on that list to start with. Other than that, I'm not super shocked the dude flipped town. I'd need to examine the wagon too because there's probably at least one wolf on there considerin' how votes went. Overall, still feelin' pretty good about game and game state.

These posts open Day 2 (among others) for SoA after having voted falcon prior to EOD1 and bouncing. So while he didn't sustain the push against falcon during that EOD, he did leave his vote and then pick up the case immediately once Day 2 was underway. So in that sense he "sustained" it, perhaps to falcon's credit.

falcon45ca wrote: ↑Sat Sep 11, 2021 10:10 pm

Son of Anarch wrote: ↑Sat Sep 11, 2021 6:29 pm Sig's defensive reaction ain't good... Kinda yikes if ya ask me.

Redundant. If it ain't good, you don't need to also tell us it's yikes.


Why do I feel you're trying to sell me something?

falcon45ca wrote: ↑Sat Sep 11, 2021 10:11 pm

Son of Anarch wrote: ↑Sat Sep 11, 2021 6:03 pm Also I'm thinkin' there's probably a scum in the 0-posters. Not sure if mafia the syndicate is the same, but on mafia scum a ton of folk hate randin' mafia to the point where they'll barely post. It can get pretty annoyin' and well... we've got three guys here not speakin' and I don't feel super bamboozled yet. I think I'm gonna make an enemy out of anyone who comes into the thread now.

Pushing low posters D1? Never seen scum do that before...

falcon45ca wrote: ↑Sun Sep 12, 2021 5:27 pm

Son of Anarch wrote: ↑Sun Sep 12, 2021 5:14 pm

falcon45ca wrote: ↑Sun Sep 12, 2021 5:13 pm

Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Sun Sep 12, 2021 4:59 pm

falcon45ca wrote: ↑Sun Sep 12, 2021 4:55 pm [VOTE: Ilario] aubergine

This chop won't happen.
If you had to choose between the people having votes already, who would it be?
Also what's your thoughts on Sig?

Not with that kind of attitude.


GTH sig is town

What’s he done to “earn” your town read?

He hasn't, a GTH read from me is the same as a gut read.


I feel he'd come across more agenda-y if he were Maf

Moments like these make me want to separate falcon from SoA. I haven't been able to pull the trigger since falcon kind of treats everyone like this at least once.

falcon45ca wrote: ↑Mon Sep 20, 2021 12:48 pm That's been my general impression as well, and it could be that I'm getting a bit tinfoil-y on her for spurious reasons.

Do you have any immediate doubts or concerns about this as the team: Dolby, G-Man, ilario?

Dolby is confirmed mafia
G-Man is likely mafia
ilario fits better with SoA than falcon does

If that's not the team then falcon is my next up. If it's anyone else, then I am wrong and will need to lean on those who outlive me to figure it out. I don't feel wrong.

That's essentially my view of the game.

My main hangup with respect to falcon's fit with SoA is that SoA's effort to make a wagon of him on Day 2 was quite weak per the timeline. He placed the vote, called himself a "falcon killer", and disappeared for the remaining 90 minutes of the day. The push certainly wasn't sustained.

One could also make the argument in the opposite direction that it evidenced he was perfectly content on Falcon and maybe wanted to save Lime Coke for next, so shrug. I 85% agree, NAA (though I don't think I put Johanna before him).

falcon45ca wrote: ↑Mon Sep 20, 2021 12:37 pm How do you feel about Johanna's recent posts?

There's just like a weird...I dunno, lamenting tone about them that just doesn't feel organic to me.

That's not really my impression. I think she is doing her best to make her mark in a game where a lot may already feel "decided". There may be some manner of "lament" in the tone, but that's not something that concerns me. I don't think it's out of place contextually.

Nonetheless I'd like to hear what she has to say in response to your suspicion so things can develop.

falcon45ca wrote: ↑Mon Sep 20, 2021 12:33 pm

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Mon Sep 20, 2021 11:57 am How does everyone feel about hammering in about an hour? If the current deadline is to be sustained it's gotta be soon or otherwise wait until the entire day passes. I don't feel strongly either way as long as Dolby is the next to go.

I'm not opposed, tho I'd rather have more time with you helping us solve.

Sorry for tunneling you BTW, but I'm kinda not sorry & it might happen again in other games

If you want more time then you should have it. You could well be the game's most important slot right now. I'd like to see your accusations become dialogues today, e.g. with G-Man and Johanna.

How does everyone feel about hammering in about an hour? If the current deadline is to be sustained it's gotta be soon or otherwise wait until the entire day passes. I don't feel strongly either way as long as Dolby is the next to go.

That tends to be my view as well, Johanna. I would probably feel stronger if falcon hadn't joined the vanishing club.

Perhaps my most pertinent question today has become:

Can ilario and falcon both be mafia? My instinct is that they don't fit together well at all, but I acknowledge that wifom exists in my view that could theoretically be turned the other way. I think it's important in that the only way I can identify (barring being super wrong about a town read) that G-Man can be town is if both ilario and falcon are mafia. Otherwise he's just kinda sunk.

Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Mon Sep 20, 2021 11:13 am

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Mon Sep 20, 2021 11:09 amOne thing that could perhaps help you sort this would be to examine SoA and ilario each specifically for how they treated each other relative to how they treated you. You formed the second triad, and there might be visible evidence in their words that you were the unfortunate civilian to be stuck under their shadows. I don't actually know; I haven't looked for this exact thing.

One thing I already thought about way back (and probably should've brought up then, but I didn't) was that I was a little bit confused how Ilario had Soa as strong town as me or even stronger, when I felt I could feel our connection in a stronger sense than I felt my own connection to Soa, certainly, but also how I perceived their connection to be. I'll look at this actually. I've blocked thinking about Ilario as scum out of my brain (while knowing that is what I'm doing), which is not great, but it just feels bad. And I feel kind of dumb if I got a really stinky triad deal here lol. But I'll get over it.

There'd be no shame in it if that's what happened. You'll get it right when it counts. It's not even affirmed anyway.

By the way, G-Man: regardless of your alignment I appreciate your efforts the last few days. It does honor to the game.

Johanna wrote: ↑Mon Sep 20, 2021 11:10 am But why vanish from the game. It's so weird. Granted I don't think I've seen w!Dolby in forever, it just doesn't seem like him.

I don't know the others. I'm going to hate it if Sort By PostCount delivers victory unto us.

I'm sure it's not a strategy. If the mafia are in that group, then their morale is spent. Even when their team wasn't perfectly solved, we were very close -- and now we're on it (if that's the team). It can be difficult to will oneself into a game thread under those conditions, when not only are you caught, but so are your mates.

Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Mon Sep 20, 2021 11:04 am

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Mon Sep 20, 2021 11:03 amWould you agree he's kinda been pulling a Son of Anarch the last two days?

If I think about it, yes.

One thing that could perhaps help you sort this would be to examine SoA and ilario each specifically for how they treated each other relative to how they treated you. You formed the second triad, and there might be visible evidence in their words that you were the unfortunate civilian to be stuck under their shadows. I don't actually know; I haven't looked for this exact thing.

If we accept "vanished from the game" as valid evidence (I do), then the most typical POE pool is sustained: [Dolby, ilario, falcon, G-Man]. G-Man hasn't vanished, but I haven't quite been able to find town in his posts the way I have Johanna's. I can find angles and agendas in his posts without needing to squint.

Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Mon Sep 20, 2021 11:02 am

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Mon Sep 20, 2021 10:57 am Where we at on ilario @Dyslexicon?

I still think he's town. I don't want everything to have been a lie.

Would you agree he's kinda been pulling a Son of Anarch the last two days?

Seems all the suspects have vanished except for G-Man.

Where we at on ilario @Dyslexicon?

If this is better then sure okay

NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Mon Sep 20, 2021 9:54 am

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Mon Sep 20, 2021 9:43 am We might consider timing a hammer such that EOD is timed better. If I’d known it would change the game schedule I might not have done it when I did last time.

Are you the god of hammers?

Yes

We might consider timing a hammer such that EOD is timed better. If I’d known it would change the game schedule I might not have done it when I did last time.

My current lead theory is that falcon is the patsy and mafia are trying their absolute best to get him chopped to force us into Limlo. That would apply to both ilario and G-Man.

The main wrench is that falcon legitimately has been suspicious, and I think he’s a decent fit with SoA. As of now I don’t think I chop him before G-Man, and certainly not before Dolby.

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Mon Sep 20, 2021 12:37 am

Marmot wrote: ↑Mon Sep 20, 2021 12:36 am falcon's not really posting himself clear, do you think that's rand town for him?

yeah but also it's kinda about how he posts. there's a recent wolf game for comparison (Witcher). my guess is my old meta tells are weaker than they used to be but in witcher he's still pretty clearly in wolf meta by the end of the game

How would you describe mafia falcon? I haven’t seen much if any before.

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Mon Sep 20, 2021 12:32 am I think falcon is probably rand

Views on ilario, Johanna, and NAA?

I do believe that Dolby should be eliminated before G-Man.

“I might have to cap myself at 10 posts per phase.”

- JaggedJimmyJay, Fleabag Mafia sign-up thread

@Marmot one related thing you could look at if you’ve the time and inclination (I can’t on mobile) is how SoA treated our confirmed town players, including the dead ones. It may provide at least some kind of roadmap, though it should be interpreted carefully.

It’s impossible to gain a mischop.

Post count supports a POE with ilario and falcon both in it. *chorus of groans*

G-Man wrote: ↑Mon Sep 20, 2021 12:14 am

Marmot wrote: ↑Sun Sep 19, 2021 11:47 pm
Even if you don't read the JJJ outcomes of the interactive analyses, he at least did a reasonable legwork compiling the interactions to save time.

Those will hopefully be my breakfast reading in the morning.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Mon Sep 20, 2021 12:02 am @G-Man I’m not clear on your explanation for Dolby being more likely innocent (relative to SoA) than falcon. Could you expand or restate?

It's not a 'Dolby is more innocent' thing. It's a 'Falcon is more guilty' thing just because Falcon's been on my radar for a phase longer. I didn't pick up on Dolby until I read his ISO and saw that the forest wasn't as impressive as some of the individual trees.

Perhaps I can deep dive into Dolby again over lunch, but I have to prep for my evening obligation at lunchtime as well.

I’d love to hear what @Dolby and @falcon45ca each think of G-Man’s perspectives.

Marmot wrote: ↑Mon Sep 20, 2021 12:12 am Dolby -> falcon -> G-Man -> NAA -> Johanna

That's the way I see it pending an ilario review, but given we only get one wrong guess, Johanna doesn't exist on this list, because we only get 4 more chops at most.

I think that is our task. If we accept Dizzy as town, then to secure the game we must also accept two of those six names as town.

We’ve been accepting NAA generally. You’re smart to use this day as the day to examine that. The ilario connection to SoA is substantial though (and in need of more eyes than mine), which had led me to calling NAA and Johanna the town. I wish I could assert a little more certitude.

Marmot wrote: ↑Mon Sep 20, 2021 12:01 am

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Sun Sep 19, 2021 11:02 pm @Marmot do you have an opinion regarding who among these players fits the best as an SoA teammate?

falcon, ilario, Johanna

Definitely falcon over Johanna. Johanna spotted the same post from SoA that I did yesterday, which I'm gonna take as a sign that she was just as attentive as I was to a little word choice. SoA's treatment of falcon was uhhh, I think it looked like he felt comfortable pushing a teammate who was never going to get yeeted over sig.

Moving on to review ilario.

Perhaps a follow-up must be then:

falcon over Johanna

NAA over Johanna?

I’ll decide for myself once I can roast on your review a bit and take a look myself tomorrow.

Marmot wrote: ↑Mon Sep 20, 2021 12:02 am My goal this game was to be killed Night 1, but I'm surrounded by too much clout.

Chili dogs with sauerclout for dinner tomorrow

@G-Man I’m not clear on your explanation for Dolby being more likely innocent (relative to SoA) than falcon. Could you expand or restate?