The Syndicate

Creature wrote: ↑Thu Feb 10, 2022 7:45 pm
Sloonei wrote: ↑Thu Feb 10, 2022 7:33 pm I think there is very little question that the mafia team was banking on alexa going deep and end gaming here. She was at least half of their longterm play. Ilario blew that up out of nowhere and, I suspect, upended a lot of plans they had set in motion.

I think at least one of those plans may have been allowing alexa to bury sabie. They probably did not expect to end up together in the walrus chat, but seeing as they were in there with a civilian (Belzy), they needed to treat it as a public space. Mac was an obvious kill target, and they had little room to avoid that as long as Belzy was there. The "plan" for sabie to shoot paopan in the night was never actually going to happen, and the real plan was for alexa to bury sabie for not shooting (with the help of Belzy), and then chop paopan the next day (today) once sabie flipped mafia.

Sabie's claim about shooting c4 as a vig is also made dubious by alexa's claims to have been targeted the same night. We now know that she was, in fact, not the mafia's kill target. This can be taken as an indication that c4 was the actual mafia kill target. Sabie did perform the kill, so her claiming of that kill was not dishonest in case she was caught in the act. She has not performed any additional kills since her first one because it was a 1-shot ability. She has been wielding the potential to shoot somebody since Night 1, but has not actually done so.

Additionally, if Alexa was not the N2 kill target, we have no reason to believe her claims about having been given a vest. She was bulletproof anyway. It is not impossible for LinearPoint's role to be true by coincidence. Indeed, it's possible Alexa really did receive a vest, and worked that into her false narrative. But LP has been cleared for days on the assumption that they saved alexa from being killed by the mafia team. We now know that to be untrue.
Wait wasn't alexa already poisoned when she pushed sabie12?

Yes. But I think they would have come up with this plan during the night.

sabie12 wrote: ↑Thu Feb 10, 2022 7:47 pm
Sloonei wrote: ↑Thu Feb 10, 2022 7:42 pm
sabie12 wrote: ↑Thu Feb 10, 2022 7:40 pm My other thought was that sloonei was alexas teammate but I wasn't sure. This thing he just came up with makes me feel a little more in that direction.
What has made you feel this way? Prior to right now.
When alexa and belzy were yelling at me. You were questioning me as to why I wouldn't trust them when they were mech cleared town which they obviosuly arent now. And the way alexa was talking about you in the vig chat.

Those questions were intended to help you. They were saying one thing and you were saying another. I wanted to get more of your side of the story.

sabie12 wrote: ↑Thu Feb 10, 2022 7:40 pm My other thought was that sloonei was alexas teammate but I wasn't sure. This thing he just came up with makes me feel a little more in that direction.

What has made you feel this way? Prior to right now.

sabie12 wrote: ↑Thu Feb 10, 2022 7:38 pm It's tough because no one was in that chat to see how belzy and alexa were pushy to me and then they came here and yelled at me. I did not trust them alexa seemed to be wanting more info on my role. Alexa and belzy tried to push me to shoot paopan. Im the one who said hey maybe we should talk it over before making an official decision.

Why did you not shoot anyone last night, and who would you have shot if you needed to pick someone?

I think there is very little question that the mafia team was banking on alexa going deep and end gaming here. She was at least half of their longterm play. Ilario blew that up out of nowhere and, I suspect, upended a lot of plans they had set in motion.

I think at least one of those plans may have been allowing alexa to bury sabie. They probably did not expect to end up together in the walrus chat, but seeing as they were in there with a civilian (Belzy), they needed to treat it as a public space. Mac was an obvious kill target, and they had little room to avoid that as long as Belzy was there. The "plan" for sabie to shoot paopan in the night was never actually going to happen, and the real plan was for alexa to bury sabie for not shooting (with the help of Belzy), and then chop paopan the next day (today) once sabie flipped mafia.

Sabie's claim about shooting c4 as a vig is also made dubious by alexa's claims to have been targeted the same night. We now know that she was, in fact, not the mafia's kill target. This can be taken as an indication that c4 was the actual mafia kill target. Sabie did perform the kill, so her claiming of that kill was not dishonest in case she was caught in the act. She has not performed any additional kills since her first one because it was a 1-shot ability. She has been wielding the potential to shoot somebody since Night 1, but has not actually done so.

Additionally, if Alexa was not the N2 kill target, we have no reason to believe her claims about having been given a vest. She was bulletproof anyway. It is not impossible for LinearPoint's role to be true by coincidence. Indeed, it's possible Alexa really did receive a vest, and worked that into her false narrative. But LP has been cleared for days on the assumption that they saved alexa from being killed by the mafia team. We now know that to be untrue.

LinearPoint and sabie’s claims both need serious re-examination in light of alexa’s flip.

Also let me take this time to say that ilario played brilliantly.

Creature wrote: ↑Thu Feb 10, 2022 7:19 pm
Justplayingitcool wrote: ↑Thu Feb 10, 2022 7:18 pm Was it alexa who shaded sloonei for claiming a self confirmable role?
It was mostly me. I don't remember if someone else did.

Alexa questioned me on a bit, but I would not call it “shading.”

I do feel like the interactions alexa and I had should go a long way to help clear me if anyone still has doubts.

Creature wrote: ↑Thu Feb 10, 2022 7:15 pm Could wolfteam have predicted falcon was checking Wilgy tonight and preemptively killed him?

Seems a safer option would just be to kill falcon.

That said, what team do we think would voluntarily kill wilgy here? He was in everyone’s POE.

Creature wrote: ↑Thu Feb 10, 2022 7:10 pm
sabie12 wrote: ↑Thu Feb 10, 2022 7:09 pm
Creature wrote: ↑Thu Feb 10, 2022 7:06 pm sabie, did you vig DrWilgy?
Nope I didn't shoot anyone.
Huh DrWilgy is such a weird wolf kill

Redirection is possible here.

Justplayingitcool wrote: ↑Thu Feb 10, 2022 7:06 pm so are mafia saving falcon and belzy/porscha for soup? Only reason I can see why they're still alive

That seems the most likely scenario.

falcon45ca wrote: ↑Thu Feb 10, 2022 7:05 pm
Justplayingitcool wrote: ↑Thu Feb 10, 2022 7:02 pm
Sloonei wrote: ↑Thu Feb 10, 2022 7:01 pm Well that was not the kill I expected.

[VOTE: Sabie] aubergine
Not creature?
Creature's Town

Is this a read or a green check?

Creature wrote: ↑Thu Feb 10, 2022 7:03 pm I'm now suspecting LinearPoint

Yes. I began to see a sabie/linearpoint world overnight. Based largely on mechanics. They are also both players that I suspected on behavior earlier in the game.

Justplayingitcool wrote: ↑Thu Feb 10, 2022 7:02 pm
Sloonei wrote: ↑Thu Feb 10, 2022 7:01 pm Well that was not the kill I expected.

[VOTE: Sabie] aubergine
Not creature?

I’m working on a new theory. The day is young.

Well that was not the kill I expected.

[VOTE: Sabie] aubergine

I think we should be voting for Creature instead of Paopan, but I lack the time and energy to make a final push.

Creature wrote: ↑Tue Feb 08, 2022 11:47 pm
Sloonei wrote: ↑Tue Feb 08, 2022 11:24 pm Reading early Day 3, I actually think Alexa has the worst looking opening and progression that phase. Which makes me feel less anxious about the poison thing.
I think she is probably town. I'd still assume worst-case scenario here.

I feel that your push on me at the start of Day 3 was disingenuous also. But I've already said this.

alexa wrote: ↑Tue Feb 08, 2022 11:47 pm
Sloonei wrote: ↑Tue Feb 08, 2022 11:24 pm Reading early Day 3, I actually think Alexa has the worst looking opening and progression that phase. Which makes me feel less anxious about the poison thing.
please explain

Some of it is difficult to articulate. There was a certain momentum in the thread at that time, but you did not seem part of it. I'm not talking about activity level. I am talking energy, direction.
Also your main pushes at the time seemed to be at odds with with others. You had some focus on dya and me when most of the discussion at the time was around other names like TSP and Mac. When I read the thread from a bird's eye view, it just looks like you are slightly out of sync with the rest of the action.

alexa/creature/sabie?

Reading early Day 3, I actually think Alexa has the worst looking opening and progression that phase. Which makes me feel less anxious about the poison thing.

I would like to look into how everybody starter off Days 3 and 4. I do not know what the mafia agenda would have been these last two days, but we should be looking at people to see whether or not their actions would fit any particular agenda.

dyachei wrote: ↑Tue Feb 08, 2022 8:48 pm why are we believing 3p?

Ilario had laid out his argument for alexa to be mafia prior to claiming. The context of the claim was interesting and deserves consideration.

dyachei wrote: ↑Tue Feb 08, 2022 8:39 pm hi can someone tell me whats going on?

Alexa was poisoned by ilario. Ilario claims 3p and allegedly believes Alexa is mafia. He might be right.

Meanwhile we’re trying to decide between Creature, sabie, and paopan for today’s chop. Wilgy is a fringe candidate as well. I have been discussed, but that seems to have subsided.

I just mean it is mechanical info relating to things which have already happened. I am not vowing to do something which will confirm me in the future.

alexa wrote: ↑Tue Feb 08, 2022 8:19 pm If it doesn't have to do with your actual role, I don't see the point in hiding it then?

It does have to do with my role.

I do not know if “self-confirmable” has different connotations, but my claim is that I have mechanical info which confirms that I am town. That is, things which have already happened which I have not revealed yet. My claim is not that I have a role which can be used to confirm me later on.

My chief concern about voting for paopan is that he is the easiest option to push.

DrWilgy wrote: ↑Tue Feb 08, 2022 5:40 pm
Belzy wrote: ↑Tue Feb 08, 2022 5:08 pm
DrWilgy wrote: ↑Tue Feb 08, 2022 4:54 pm Voted Pao.

Meh day.
Meh day? What do you mean?
No motivation. Just autoing the Pao.

Can you sum up why Pao deserves this fate?

alexa wrote: ↑Tue Feb 08, 2022 4:28 pm Most people who can top post as villagers can do so as wolf as well imo

Then why did you ask if I was volume cleared earlier?

Belzy wrote: ↑Tue Feb 08, 2022 4:27 pm
Justplayingitcool wrote: ↑Tue Feb 08, 2022 4:25 pm
Belzy wrote: ↑Tue Feb 08, 2022 4:24 pm
LinearPoint wrote: ↑Tue Feb 08, 2022 4:21 pm Mac has so far been the only mafia flipped that has pushed Wilgy.
But most of Wilgy's wagonis still alive: sabie12, dyachei, falcon45ca, Paopan, LinearPoint, Creature, alexa
Mac seems like someone distancing.
I think someone mentioned before that Mac has bussed a lot as a wolf. could be wrong
He looks like someone who would.

He is

Creature wrote: ↑Tue Feb 08, 2022 4:17 pm What do you all think of DrWilgy btw?

He has been absent for this entire phase.

Justplayingitcool wrote: ↑Tue Feb 08, 2022 4:15 pm
Sloonei wrote: ↑Tue Feb 08, 2022 4:13 pm Does Creature feel town to anyone at this moment?
I have had moments of hesitation

when?

Does Creature feel town to anyone at this moment?

I have a confession to make.

I have always read "atp" as "at the present."

Reading @Paopan would be easier if they could tell us who they have targeted each night.

sabie12 wrote: ↑Tue Feb 08, 2022 3:54 pm I am different in smaller chats because they're smaller and easier for me to process than larger chats. I believe I even expressed that

Did you intend to shoot paopan when it was suggested in the private chat?

alexa wrote: ↑Tue Feb 08, 2022 3:49 pm
alexa wrote: ↑Tue Feb 08, 2022 3:48 pm Maybe Sloonei is not mafia

Or at least, I don't really think I see much of an agenda behind his recent posting

@Belzy, why are you convinced?
And by recent I mean on review of the last couple pages

What has been your general perception of me as this game has progressed?

Belzy wrote: ↑Tue Feb 08, 2022 3:45 pm
Sloonei wrote: ↑Tue Feb 08, 2022 3:43 pm
Belzy wrote: ↑Tue Feb 08, 2022 3:37 pm
Sloonei wrote: ↑Tue Feb 08, 2022 3:37 pm
Belzy wrote: ↑Tue Feb 08, 2022 3:35 pm
Creature wrote: ↑Tue Feb 08, 2022 3:30 pm Perhaps we can rely on sabie12 being town and tell her to vig inside POE. We'd need to get at least one of the lynch/vig targets right to live to D5 though.
Don't trust her. She broke her promise, is two faced, only shot town, and lied about shooting Paopan who we give high scum%
It is not necessary to use such harsh personal language when making this accusation.
I am sorry, where?
”broke her promise” and “two faced” come off as personal attacks.
No, just no.

She promised me and Alexa to kill Paopan.

She didn't.

So she broke her promise.

How is this personal???????!!!!!!!!!!

SLOONEI!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

I’m not telling you the argument is wrong. I just think the language you are using is more inflammatory than it needs to be. I don’t think you are intending it that way.

Belzy wrote: ↑Tue Feb 08, 2022 3:40 pm
Justplayingitcool wrote: ↑Tue Feb 08, 2022 3:38 pm
Belzy wrote: ↑Tue Feb 08, 2022 3:37 pm
Sloonei wrote: ↑Tue Feb 08, 2022 3:37 pm
Belzy wrote: ↑Tue Feb 08, 2022 3:35 pm
Creature wrote: ↑Tue Feb 08, 2022 3:30 pm Perhaps we can rely on sabie12 being town and tell her to vig inside POE. We'd need to get at least one of the lynch/vig targets right to live to D5 though.
Don't trust her. She broke her promise, is two faced, only shot town, and lied about shooting Paopan who we give high scum%
It is not necessary to use such harsh personal language when making this accusation.
I am sorry, where?
two-faced was a bit strong
It is? I am not a native English speaker. Having two faces just means showinf one face here (in the thread) and a different one elsewhere (the chat with Alexa and me). How do you say that less strong in English?

That’s alright. I certainly don’t think you meant any harm. But “two faced” has harsher connotations among some native English speakers. Simply saying that sabie lied about her actions would do the trick.

Belzy wrote: ↑Tue Feb 08, 2022 3:37 pm
Sloonei wrote: ↑Tue Feb 08, 2022 3:37 pm
Belzy wrote: ↑Tue Feb 08, 2022 3:35 pm
Creature wrote: ↑Tue Feb 08, 2022 3:30 pm Perhaps we can rely on sabie12 being town and tell her to vig inside POE. We'd need to get at least one of the lynch/vig targets right to live to D5 though.
Don't trust her. She broke her promise, is two faced, only shot town, and lied about shooting Paopan who we give high scum%
It is not necessary to use such harsh personal language when making this accusation.
I am sorry, where?

”broke her promise” and “two faced” come off as personal attacks.

Creature wrote: ↑Tue Feb 08, 2022 3:36 pm You all think Paopan is wolf?

Eh

Belzy wrote: ↑Tue Feb 08, 2022 3:35 pm
Creature wrote: ↑Tue Feb 08, 2022 3:30 pm Perhaps we can rely on sabie12 being town and tell her to vig inside POE. We'd need to get at least one of the lynch/vig targets right to live to D5 though.
Don't trust her. She broke her promise, is two faced, only shot town, and lied about shooting Paopan who we give high scum%

It is not necessary to use such harsh personal language when making this accusation.

Creature wrote: ↑Tue Feb 08, 2022 3:34 pm If we decide it is better to sleep then I suggest we instead lynch ilario today just to be sure.

I agree that chopping ilario is better than chopping no one.

Creature wrote: ↑Tue Feb 08, 2022 3:32 pm Damn the POE should be pretty tight and we can't even find a wolf

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Sat Jan 29, 2022 1:23 am Wolves be like “damn I’m not a wolf that’s crazy”

LinearPoint wrote: ↑Tue Feb 08, 2022 3:30 pm
Creature wrote: ↑Tue Feb 08, 2022 3:26 pm LinearPoint - Dependent on alexa's alignment
how so? Don't really see how protecting a Town or protecting a Mafia are different.
All it would mean if Alexa flips Mafia would be that she lied about being shot by mafia.

Creature's wording is inaccurate. A better way of saying it would be that you are confirmed town if alexa is town, but the possibility exists for you to be mafia if she is mafia.

Creature wrote: ↑Tue Feb 08, 2022 3:20 pm
Sloonei wrote: ↑Tue Feb 08, 2022 3:18 pm
Creature wrote: ↑Tue Feb 08, 2022 3:18 pm sabie12 doesn't strike me as someone with a big wolf mindset tbh
She is craftier than you might think.
Can she claim town night vigilante as wolf and that?

Yes

Creature wrote: ↑Tue Feb 08, 2022 3:18 pm sabie12 doesn't strike me as someone with a big wolf mindset tbh

She is craftier than you might think.

Belzy wrote: ↑Tue Feb 08, 2022 3:16 pm
alexa wrote: ↑Tue Feb 08, 2022 3:15 pm
Belzy wrote: ↑Tue Feb 08, 2022 3:12 pm Sabie talking inthread different than in our vig chat is scummy af, especially with broken a promise to me and Alexa
yeah agreed

but also if she was going to overtly/maliciously lie, idk why she didn't soup us last night so we couldn't call her out. it's still sketchy af though
I read somewhere soup kill can only happen with one mafia left, and has to be mafia goon. So maybe soup kill cannot happen rn

This is incorrect, I think. My understanding is that the goon is only able to perform the soup kill if they are the only team member remaining. Any other team member can be designated to perform the soup kill on any night.

LinearPoint wrote: ↑Tue Feb 08, 2022 3:14 pm So Sabie said they would shoot Paopan if the group shot Mac, and Sabie then decided not to shoot Paopan?
Sorry, but if Paopan and Sabie are a team, why would she even say that in the first place knowing she wouldn't be shooting her teammate?

This is a question I am also struggling with.

alexa wrote: ↑Tue Feb 08, 2022 3:11 pm If that's the case, she did not speak up about it at all, so I'm not sure why she's lying now. In the group chat, we all talked about how we scumread Mac and Pao, but were more confident on Mac and our shot couldn't be blocked so we went with it. Sabie seemed equally (or even more-so) confident on Paopan scum as well. I confirmed that she had a vig shot left and she confirmed she'd be firing it at Paopan

@sabie12 is there anything untruthful in this summary?

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