The Syndicate

@alexa talk about me

Justplayingitcool wrote: ↑Tue Feb 08, 2022 5:21 am

Sloonei wrote: ↑Tue Feb 08, 2022 5:20 am

Justplayingitcool wrote: ↑Tue Feb 08, 2022 5:17 am I read the first sentence and stopped. Trusting a 3P HAS NEVER GONE WRONG IN THE HISTORY OF MAFIA.

We’re not really trusting ilario with anything. Alexa is already poisoned. She’a flipping today whether we trust ilario or not.

Yeah, so I guess we leave them both for today and kill elsewhere?

Might I interest you in a Creature wagon?

Justplayingitcool wrote: ↑Tue Feb 08, 2022 5:17 am I read the first sentence and stopped. Trusting a 3P HAS NEVER GONE WRONG IN THE HISTORY OF MAFIA.

We’re not really trusting ilario with anything. Alexa is already poisoned. She’a flipping today whether we trust ilario or not.

Porscha wrote: ↑Tue Feb 08, 2022 5:12 am for now i'm gonna actually put my vote on alexa

Alexa is poisoned and will presumably die today no matter what

I mean if that’s all true then we are powerless to prevent your win condition, and if it’s not true then you’ve just decreased your chances significantly.

ilario wrote: ↑Tue Feb 08, 2022 4:57 am Okay fk it I’m gonna out all my mech info just to prove I’m on ur side

Not necessary

ilario wrote: ↑Tue Feb 08, 2022 4:56 am

Sloonei wrote: ↑Tue Feb 08, 2022 4:53 am

ilario wrote: ↑Tue Feb 08, 2022 4:49 am The thing that I don’t understand is, if there’s a wolf in the trio of bel Alexa and pao, why didn’t they warn mac he was gonna get shot so he can try to get a soup off on his way out?

I can only think of two answers, 1. Not every wolf can do the soup and it’s just a specific role 2. Wolves were playing greedy and wanted to get more mech info before the soup

There is a third option in that no wolves were in that chat, but even so, I think wolf mac knew yesterday that writing was on the wall and would have thought about doing the soup kill.

If it’s option 1, then it means whoever has the soup role is relatively deep and that’s why they haven’t used it yet so that rules out people like sabie pao etc

NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Mon Jan 24, 2022 7:12 pm Cabbage Stew

Mafia have access to a soup kill--how does this work? Glad you asked! Once per game, Mafia can:

Forgo their factional kill
Designate one team member as the Soup Chef, this member cannot use any of their role abilities (note that a goon, if one exists, can only perform a soup kill if they are the last remaining team Mafia member)

So that implies anyone can use the soup? In which case I really wonder why mac didn’t use it

It implies anyone but Mac can use it, I think. They were vanilla, aka a goon

sabie12 wrote: ↑Tue Feb 08, 2022 4:50 am I will explain that alexa and belzy's super strong push towards Mac and then paopan gave me some pause and I wanted to make sure it was the right decision. I went through macyo's ISO and there were some interactions with dizzy that obviously we know now are fabricated but I wanted to discuss and make sure. I don't feel like being cautious is a bad thing this stage of the game. Macyo seemed like more likely a hit and even though I do find pao scummy I didn't want to be wrong. The fact that alexa has outed peoples roles without them even being pushed or needing to also made me a bit wary.

Can you walk us through what exactly happened in your chat with belzy and alexa? How did the conversation unfold, and how did you all arrive at Macyo?

ilario wrote: ↑Tue Feb 08, 2022 4:49 am The thing that I don’t understand is, if there’s a wolf in the trio of bel Alexa and pao, why didn’t they warn mac he was gonna get shot so he can try to get a soup off on his way out?

I can only think of two answers, 1. Not every wolf can do the soup and it’s just a specific role 2. Wolves were playing greedy and wanted to get more mech info before the soup

There is a third option in that no wolves were in that chat, but even so, I think wolf mac knew yesterday that writing was on the wall and would have thought about doing the soup kill.

If it’s option 1, then it means whoever has the soup role is relatively deep and that’s why they haven’t used it yet so that rules out people like sabie pao etc

NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Mon Jan 24, 2022 7:12 pm Cabbage Stew

Mafia have access to a soup kill--how does this work? Glad you asked! Once per game, Mafia can:

Forgo their factional kill
Designate one team member as the Soup Chef, this member cannot use any of their role abilities (note that a goon, if one exists, can only perform a soup kill if they are the last remaining team Mafia member)

Alexa being mafia also helps a bit to explain why there has been no soup kill. Without her there's really only... three? two? town roles that are known.

Justplayingitcool wrote: ↑Tue Feb 08, 2022 4:21 am

Sloonei wrote: ↑Tue Feb 08, 2022 4:17 am

Justplayingitcool wrote: ↑Tue Feb 08, 2022 4:14 am If creature AND alexa are wolves it means my entire worldview is wrong

what's your entire worldview?

That they are town - i have been townreading creature since D2 and thought the mech stuff is in Alexa’s favour

Wilgy
Pao
Sabie
Sloonei

Is my current PoE from the top of my head, but I appreciate i need to look back and read mac’s iso when i have time. Radish had you as town iirc so im gonna respect his legacy

Ask yourself how the mafia team is likely to be playing this phase.

at any rate, i think the voice I'd most like to hear right now is @alexa's. If she is town, today is potentially her last chance to help guide us to a win. And she also holds the answers to a lot of questions right now.

Justplayingitcool wrote: ↑Tue Feb 08, 2022 4:14 am If creature AND alexa are wolves it means my entire worldview is wrong

what's your entire worldview?

Porscha wrote: ↑Tue Feb 08, 2022 4:05 am if that's the case then what do you make of alexa getting onto sabie so hard for not making the shot on pao? would that be a w/w dynamic? I feel like it's doubtful they are w/w b/c it really put sabie on her heels. if it's w!alexa then I feel like it makes sabie look better but idk if it was just theatrics or what

If Alexa is mafia, I think sabie is town. I think the reaction we saw earlier was just alexa trying to look the part.

Porscha wrote: ↑Tue Feb 08, 2022 3:58 am

ilario wrote: ↑Tue Feb 08, 2022 3:56 am

Porscha wrote: ↑Tue Feb 08, 2022 3:54 am

ilario wrote: ↑Tue Feb 08, 2022 3:47 am

Porscha wrote: ↑Tue Feb 08, 2022 3:45 am

Sloonei wrote: ↑Tue Feb 08, 2022 3:32 am

Porscha wrote: ↑Tue Feb 08, 2022 3:30 am I thought this too but then I also feel like what's the point of a mafia publicly trying to out roles when they could keep that info to themselves while having town feel more relaxed to have a more surprise soup? it almost read as town as much as I hated it

Because it makes us all say "oh, alexa is the town role clop, let's clear her and move on with the game."

she was already pocketing me and belzy early what's the point

Let’s say she’s mafia.
Okay let’s say she didn’t out it.
Suddenly in the night you both get mysterious soup killed meanwhile she’s still alive. People are gonna wonder why the outed role cop is alive but you both died.

That’s no longer a problem now that ur role is outed.

thank you for the perspective I see your skepticism and I'm not beyond seeing alexa as a deep wolf but if she's maf then did she lie about getting shot n2? and what about LP giving her vest?

Yea I think she lied to look clear. Lp giving her a vest I think is true regardless of their alignment.

so maf didn't shoot and then alexa claimed she was shot? that would be playing the long con lol

No, Long Con didn't sign up for the GoC this year.

ilario wrote: ↑Tue Feb 08, 2022 3:55 am Mac and dizzys treatment of sloonei doesn’t feel partnery to me so I’m kinda side eyeing people who pushed him today

They both felt scared to push sloonei early game which is more indicative of w/v when you take into account the type of players everyone in question is

Not to lean too heavily into the confirmation bias, but this is where I began to really suspect Creature. He focused very sharply on me yesterday and today.

Paopan wrote: ↑Tue Feb 08, 2022 3:51 am Tell me that's not the case?

You literally shut me off yesterday

Paopan...
paopan, paopan. We are not casing you right now. illario and I have just put our brilliant little minds together to determine that you might be town after all. We are asking to hear your voice right now. The floor is yours. Please stop biting us.

Paopan wrote: ↑Tue Feb 08, 2022 3:50 am I already gave everyone a hint.
Creature is aligned with TSP.
Sheesh

... and illario is asking why you are not voting for Creature.

Paopan wrote: ↑Tue Feb 08, 2022 3:47 am

ilario wrote: ↑Tue Feb 08, 2022 3:45 am

Paopan wrote: ↑Tue Feb 08, 2022 3:42 am

ilario wrote: ↑Tue Feb 08, 2022 3:33 am

Paopan wrote: ↑Tue Feb 08, 2022 3:29 am Btw.

It was Creature who unvoted TSP when I proposed we should vote TSP to save Guillo

Then why aren’t u voting him? I’m tossing between him and lp, just because all of lps posts today have been wolfy af since they’re suddenly very curious about solving for 3p which is a wolfy mindset at this stage of the game imo

Honestly, I don't really care at this point.
Y'all still trusting the "powerful, town" slots yet still alive at this point like Sabie, Belzy, and Dya
I am confirmed town prot yet y'all still wanted to lynch me
Makes me question if this is really GoC. I'd rather get yeeted and watch the game from the VIP boxes
So for today. Since this is still town maj, I'll not vote and let everyone decides who's who.
Good luck ^^

….I’m trying to defend you here and if ur town it’s a good chance the people pushing u are wolves. Why are u doing their job for them? Like wtf.

I'm hoping you're not expecting someone like me to solve the game whilst being death tunnelled by the majority, eh?

Paopan all of your other recent posts have been bragging about how you are solving the game and not being listened to.

I have been underwhelmed with paopan's responses in several instances this game, but I've never met them before and from what I have gathered they play with a certain aloofness. So I can only shrug.

Porscha wrote: ↑Tue Feb 08, 2022 3:30 am I thought this too but then I also feel like what's the point of a mafia publicly trying to out roles when they could keep that info to themselves while having town feel more relaxed to have a more surprise soup? it almost read as town as much as I hated it

Because it makes us all say "oh, alexa is the town role clop, let's clear her and move on with the game."

Just so we're clear: alexa is poisoned and, unless a healer exists and opts t o save her, she will be flipping at the end of this phase no matter what.

We also have our regularly scheduled elimination to settle.

Paopan wrote: ↑Tue Feb 08, 2022 3:26 am I am hard pushing scums. But people just wouldn't listen.

Remind us again which names you are hard pushing.

My “increase in confidence” that I mentioned earlier was in reference to the following reads:

Creature mafia
JPIC town
Wilgy town

In my POE at the time, this meant that sabie and paopan were the last two mafia. But if we are indeed in an alexa scum world, along with creature, then I do not know who the third is. LP would be back on the table.

I like this.

ilario wrote: ↑Tue Feb 08, 2022 3:10 am I already explained everything about her

She’s just a wolf

Why’d she clear Belzy and Porscha?

ilario wrote: ↑Tue Feb 08, 2022 3:09 am Alexa creature lp 2/3 mafia in there idk the last

Explain alexa

ilario wrote: ↑Tue Feb 08, 2022 3:06 am Also I don’t see how sabie holstering there is scummy? Unless they’re w/w which I doubt.

Who’s left in your POE pool?

It seems to me they are avoiding killing people that are already stewing in their pot.

Well not complete silence. Obviously I said all those things up there.

I have been reading things in silence. My confidence has increased from a 5 to a 6. But I don't feel like saying anything yet.

I request thoughts on this interactions, please and thanks:

Phil and Gloria wrote: ↑Fri Feb 04, 2022 7:37 pm

Justplayingitcool wrote: ↑Fri Feb 04, 2022 7:35 pm

Phil and Gloria wrote: ↑Fri Feb 04, 2022 7:32 pm

Justplayingitcool wrote: ↑Fri Feb 04, 2022 7:31 pm

Master Radishes wrote: ↑Fri Feb 04, 2022 7:31 pm Mac is creating doomsday narratives that don't exist.

yes

There is no world in which you can do anything but town read me that don't out you and you know it. Final warning.

The good thing is that if TSP is mafia, I do not believe you are partnered with him.

So if you believe Falcon why are you so prone to emphasising bad points about me being mafia every single time someone vocalises one?

Creature and Mac progressed pretty similarly with regards to one another.

Days 1 & 2 they were all buddy-buddy and passed each other off as easy, uncritical townreads. Select examples:
Mac on Creature Creature on Mac Later on they started to toss general, often vague suspicion at each other. Creature was a bit earlier to this step than Mac, to be fair.

Mac on Creature Creature on Mac Notably, Mac does not really start to move against Creature until Day 3, when TSP was being steamrolled and Mac was gaining momentum as the second suspect behind him. I would expect some level of distancing at this stage.

I also want to call attention to one particular sequence from Creature's ISO:

Creature wrote: ↑Thu Feb 03, 2022 10:04 am We'll probably have Phil abd Gloria as wolf here, right?

Creature wrote: ↑Thu Feb 03, 2022 1:06 pm If Phil and Gloria happen to be wolf I won't be surprised

Creature wrote: ↑Thu Feb 03, 2022 6:15 pm It's gonna be Sloonei + Phil and Gloria, right?

These posts occur over an ~8 hour span. They are the only substantive mentions of Mac/Sprit in that span. I get that it's not Creature's style to exceed two sentences per post, but these posts with no added thought behind them, no force, just makes it ring out like a hollow push. He is saying the name(s) "Phil and Gloria" often in association with suspicion, but I am not seeing anything else to this.

Alexa's claim was at #8664. Creature's first post there was #8418 and redacted at 8452. So it was all before alexa's claim.

But my point is more that Porscha and Belzy have been linked together by their own claimed mechanical linkage for several days now. Creature was pushing a POE that included them over Paopan and sabie, which is at odds with the general consensus.

This relates to broader thoughts I have about how the mafia team might have responded to circumstances on Day 3. I would like to review the progression of the early parts of that phase as well.

Creature wrote: ↑Fri Feb 04, 2022 9:48 pm

Creature wrote: ↑Fri Feb 04, 2022 9:47 pm imo I'd narrow it down to

Belzy
DrWilgy
Phil and Gloria
Porscha
Sloonei

Hopefully four wolves here

Belzy and Porscha would be always together so the team would have to be Belzy + Porscha + 2 of {DrWilgy, Phil and Gloria, Sloonei} + TonyStarkPrime (outed)

Creature wrote: ↑Fri Feb 04, 2022 10:02 pm

alexa wrote: ↑Fri Feb 04, 2022 9:55 pm

Creature wrote: ↑Fri Feb 04, 2022 9:47 pm imo I'd narrow it down to

Belzy
DrWilgy
Phil and Gloria
Porscha
Sloonei

Hopefully four wolves here

if belzy/porscha are wolves then typing themselves together day 1 is extremely dumb

Whatever

Then DrWilgy + Phil and Gloria + Sloonei + someone I'm misclearing (maybe Paopan? Or one of dyachei/ilario?)?

Creature's initial POE pool included Belzy and Porscha and excluded names like Sabie, Paopan, and JPIC. When he was met with resistance on the Belzy/Porscha suspicion, he pivoted to "maybe paopan" or "one of dyachei/ilario". I am curious about this whole development.

Why were Belzy and Porscha less clear than Paopan? Why is sabie's claim accepted as town? How did JPIC become cleared?

(it's actually because macyo is the most recent flip and creature was first alphabetically in the POE)

Why did I start my ISO exercise with Creature and Mac?

sabie12 wrote: ↑Mon Feb 07, 2022 11:13 pm Sorry after messing up a couple times I got nervous and overthought everything. That's all I got. You can think I'm scummy for that or whatever but that's where I'm at. This game has been a tough one and I worried about making things worse. I'm trying not to make things worse or upset people.

It's alright. Let's just focus on catching the remaining bad guys. If we are on the right track, three out of these five names are the remaining mafia team. Who do you trust the most among these names? Who do you trust the least?

Creature
DrWilgy
Justplayingitcool
Paopan
Sloonei

sabie12 wrote: ↑Mon Feb 07, 2022 10:55 pm

Sloonei wrote: ↑Mon Feb 07, 2022 10:21 pm

sabie12 wrote: ↑Mon Feb 07, 2022 10:07 pm

Creature wrote: ↑Mon Feb 07, 2022 9:45 pm

Sloonei wrote: ↑Mon Feb 07, 2022 9:42 pm I would suspect that the mafia team has some for of access to a role block ability.

Why wouldn't they block Falcon then?

Sloonei wrote: ↑Mon Feb 07, 2022 10:01 pm

sabie12 wrote: ↑Mon Feb 07, 2022 9:51 pm

ilario wrote: ↑Mon Feb 07, 2022 9:46 pm Belzy/Alexa/sabie is that neighbourhood permanent or just for the vig?

It was temporary just for the vig shot.

Why didn’t you shoot paopan?

I was worried they would try to roleblock me if they have a roleblock ability. I remember alexa said she was roleblocked one night which made me think it's possible mafia has a roleblock ability of some sort. If falcon is being truthful about his shot on mac-yo then they may have tried to use it on me rather than falcon. So I holstered just in case. I also was worried after messing it up twice. I wanted to make sure we got the macyo shot right.

Why would a roleblock deter you from attempting to shoot?

Do role blocks not block shots if that's your role?

I think it varies from host to host/game to game. I don't know how nook would rule on it. I vaguely recall somebody claiming a roleblock with a refund earlier in the game, though.

sabie12 wrote: ↑Mon Feb 07, 2022 10:52 pm I wasn't a hundred percent sure if I could trust you and belzy.

Alexa and Belzy have been two of the most confirmed town players in the game for a while now. Where did this distrust stem from? Are you aware of the mechanical information around them?

Sloonei wrote: ↑Mon Feb 07, 2022 10:36 pm According to POE, 3 out of these 5 names are mafia. ISO work incoming.

Creature
DrWilgy
Justplayingitcool
Paopan
sabie12

And if anyone has arguments for any of these folks to be town, please voice them. Such arguments certainly exist for each of them. We are at a point where clearing a single name can go a long way toward securing a victory.

According to POE, 3 out of these 5 names are mafia. ISO work incoming.

Creature
DrWilgy
Justplayingitcool
Paopan
sabie12

sabie12 wrote: ↑Mon Feb 07, 2022 10:07 pm

Creature wrote: ↑Mon Feb 07, 2022 9:45 pm

Sloonei wrote: ↑Mon Feb 07, 2022 9:42 pm I would suspect that the mafia team has some for of access to a role block ability.

Why wouldn't they block Falcon then?

Sloonei wrote: ↑Mon Feb 07, 2022 10:01 pm

sabie12 wrote: ↑Mon Feb 07, 2022 9:51 pm

ilario wrote: ↑Mon Feb 07, 2022 9:46 pm Belzy/Alexa/sabie is that neighbourhood permanent or just for the vig?

It was temporary just for the vig shot.

Why didn’t you shoot paopan?

I was worried they would try to roleblock me if they have a roleblock ability. I remember alexa said she was roleblocked one night which made me think it's possible mafia has a roleblock ability of some sort. If falcon is being truthful about his shot on mac-yo then they may have tried to use it on me rather than falcon. So I holstered just in case. I also was worried after messing it up twice. I wanted to make sure we got the macyo shot right.

Why would a roleblock deter you from attempting to shoot?

sabie12 wrote: ↑Mon Feb 07, 2022 9:51 pm

ilario wrote: ↑Mon Feb 07, 2022 9:46 pm Belzy/Alexa/sabie is that neighbourhood permanent or just for the vig?

It was temporary just for the vig shot.

Why didn’t you shoot paopan?

Creature wrote: ↑Mon Feb 07, 2022 9:57 pm It's still getting increasingly difficult for me to see any wolfteam that doesn't involve Sloonei and maybe DrWilgy. Perhaps Sloonei noticed that and that's why they have to push me here.

Nah

Creature wrote: ↑Mon Feb 07, 2022 9:45 pm

Sloonei wrote: ↑Mon Feb 07, 2022 9:42 pm I would suspect that the mafia team has some for of access to a role block ability.

Why wouldn't they block Falcon then?

Maybe they did.

I would suspect that the mafia team has some for of access to a role block ability.

ilario wrote: ↑Mon Feb 07, 2022 9:35 pm Don’t kill paopan wtf

Why not?

Creature wrote: ↑Mon Feb 07, 2022 9:26 pm

Sloonei wrote: ↑Mon Feb 07, 2022 9:24 pm

Creature wrote: ↑Mon Feb 07, 2022 9:22 pm In a town!Paopan world, is it better for them to claim and get soup killed while we get to lynch someone else today rather than just get lynched today?

This argument can be expanded to every player who has not yet claimed.

Yep, but how many have an interesting claim like Paopan? I know someone claiming VT won't help at all.

We don’t know. We haven’t claimed. Could be everyone. Could be one person. Could be any number in between.
My point is there is I see little to no reason to treat Paopan any differently than the rest of the player’s in the POE. They have a completely unverified claim which does not need to make them town anyway.

Creature wrote: ↑Mon Feb 07, 2022 9:22 pm In a town!Paopan world, is it better for them to claim and get soup killed while we get to lynch someone else today rather than just get lynched today?

This argument can be expanded to every player who has not yet claimed.