The Syndicate

Belzy wrote: ↑Fri Feb 11, 2022 7:29 pm Sloonei really looks awful in the 4 man lynch.

Jpic looks better. I wasn't done with the ISO before I left for work. Sloonei has to be scum. Lp and Sloonei. Period.

Nope

I think for the sake of security, we should start to identify reasons to town read everyone that have nothing to do with mechanics. For some, mechanical information will still be sufficient. But we can give ourselves some peace of mind by clearing each other on behavior alone.

I'm about to leave for work at Job B after spending most of the afternoon doing work for Job A, so I can't contribute to this discussion for the time being. But I think this can be a productive use of time for those who may feel there is nothing to do this phase.

Oh no, that was before I had cleared LP I guess.

falcon45ca wrote: ↑Fri Feb 11, 2022 4:46 pm

Sloonei wrote: ↑Sat Feb 05, 2022 2:25 am If the POE is correct, 4 of these 7 names are mafia:

Creature
DrWilgy
Justplayingitcool
LinearPoint
Paopan
Phil and Gloria
sabie12

If your name is on the list, cross yourself off. Add me to it if you like. If your name is not on the list, you probably want to add me to it, so you're looking for 4 out of 8 rather than 4 out of 7. Sorry.

To the three civilians on this list, it's on you (and me) to prove to everybody else that you are town. Do so without claiming, please and thanks. A great weapon for proving your towniness is to simply hunt for the remaining bad guys. This game is not nearly as dire as it might have seemed ~24 hours ago. Let's all secure our 2022 wins here so we can all meet back for next year's GoC.

LP & JPIC still unresolved

This was at a time when alexa was being treated as clear, and LinearPoint by association.

falcon45ca wrote: ↑Fri Feb 11, 2022 4:30 pm This is a stage where I'd like to be able to channel JJJ's ability to find town groups.

This is what I have been encouraging today.

If ever there was a time for a trustfall exercise, this would be it.

falcon45ca wrote: ↑Fri Feb 11, 2022 4:25 pm

Sloonei wrote: ↑Fri Feb 11, 2022 4:19 pm

falcon45ca wrote: ↑Fri Feb 11, 2022 4:15 pm

Sloonei wrote: ↑Tue Feb 08, 2022 2:10 pm

Belzy wrote: ↑Tue Feb 08, 2022 2:08 pm

Sloonei wrote: ↑Tue Feb 08, 2022 2:06 pm Urge to claim rising. I have mech which can confirm me as town.

You defended both Dizzy and Mac. Called them town, for one simple little reason, never voted them... you vote a lot of townie, and spared Tsp while making a weird scrunity post. You have protected literally every known mafia player.

I never defended Dizzy. Dizzy was dead before I was really involved with the game. Marmot too.

I did think Mac was town for a while. So did everyone else.

I still have mech which can confirm me as town.

Can you confirm yourself?

The option exists, but I would prefer not to do that at this time. Soup, and I also think it should be possible for you all to town-read me without my role being made public. Dizzy, Mac, and Alexa all treated me in ways that would be wacky if I was on a team with each of them.

Yeah, JPIC says the same thing...


Honestly, all those players are capable of distancing, so yeah I don't read too strongly into that

What do you read strongly into?

falcon45ca wrote: ↑Fri Feb 11, 2022 4:15 pm

Sloonei wrote: ↑Tue Feb 08, 2022 2:10 pm

Belzy wrote: ↑Tue Feb 08, 2022 2:08 pm

Sloonei wrote: ↑Tue Feb 08, 2022 2:06 pm Urge to claim rising. I have mech which can confirm me as town.

You defended both Dizzy and Mac. Called them town, for one simple little reason, never voted them... you vote a lot of townie, and spared Tsp while making a weird scrunity post. You have protected literally every known mafia player.

I never defended Dizzy. Dizzy was dead before I was really involved with the game. Marmot too.

I did think Mac was town for a while. So did everyone else.

I still have mech which can confirm me as town.

Can you confirm yourself?

The option exists, but I would prefer not to do that at this time. Soup, and I also think it should be possible for you all to town-read me without my role being made public. Dizzy, Mac, and Alexa all treated me in ways that would be wacky if I was on a team with each of them.

Even if she was town, Alexa is not a good source for sloonei meta reads. We had played exactly one 48-hour game phase together prior to this game, as far as I am aware. She appears to be aware of a recent scum game where I no-showed and subbed out after Day 1 as well. Maybe she was in whatever game that was.

I think her legitimate uncertainty/unfamiliarity with me shines through in a few places. Off the top of my head: her asking if I was "volume cleared", and her being under the impression that c4 and I have an extensive history and familiarity with one another.

If the POE is wrong, I am feeling increasingly strong about Belzy and Porscha being the two we've gotten wrong.

Creature wrote: ↑Fri Feb 11, 2022 3:47 pm If all that is correct and sabie12 is not being pocketed by dyachei, then it is likely a combination of LinearPoint + one of you (Sloonei) or JPIC.

I have done very little work to read JPIC today because I felt comfortable in my town read on him yesterday. If I had more time I would probably want to look into him.

I think if all you cleared folks really want to settle things today, you should look into each of us in depth. Try to imagine all possible worlds for each of us.

Creature wrote: ↑Fri Feb 11, 2022 3:45 pm

Sloonei wrote: ↑Fri Feb 11, 2022 3:44 pm

Creature wrote: ↑Fri Feb 11, 2022 3:42 pm I guess I'm already getting bored from this game.

I still feel that there is a lot that we can be doing to help settle things. If LinearPoint is mafia, we need to find their teammate. If LinearPoint is town, we need to figure out where we've gone wrong.

idk I'm following the philosophy of one wolf at a time. I don't want to preflip LinearPoint here.

This is normally my philosophy as well, but we are close enough to the finish line that I think it makes sense to consider candidates in terms of pairings at this point.

Creature wrote: ↑Fri Feb 11, 2022 3:42 pm I guess I'm already getting bored from this game.

I still feel that there is a lot that we can be doing to help settle things. If LinearPoint is mafia, we need to find their teammate. If LinearPoint is town, we need to figure out where we've gone wrong.

I am also struggling to identify a clear teammate for LP here.

LinearPoint wrote: ↑Fri Feb 11, 2022 3:36 pm

Sloonei wrote: ↑Fri Feb 11, 2022 3:31 pm

LinearPoint wrote: ↑Fri Feb 11, 2022 3:30 pm There's also really the fact that Mafia cannot soup tonight if Belzy/Porscha are Mafia.
In fact they cannot soup until they are guaranteed the final 2.
So Mafia can't win by souping tonight if Belzy/Porscha are Mafia.
And if Mafia don't soup tonight Neeko's pretty sure Falcon just wins the game for Town.
So a Belzy/Porscha team is very unlikely and if they are the last two then Town still wins by default.

Who do you think are the last two wolves? If you had to choose two names right now.

Sloonie and JPIC make the most sense since Neeko. Sabie and Dya could be Mafia, but a Mafia night Vig doesn't seem like it'd be optimal game balance and Dya using her vig shot to kill mafia also doesn't make sense as Mafia unless we assume Dya is a Mafia Loyal Dayvig. That, however, makes even less sense than Sabie since there was only 7 Maifa, 2 3Ps with the wincon to kill Mafia, and too many vigilantes to count on the hand aligned with Town.
So that basically leaves PoE with just Slonie and JPIC.

There is a glaring problem with this POE for me: I am in it. If you are town, you are running into the same problem with the consensus POE. If both of us are town, then we are indeed wrong. This is why I'm opening the Belzy and Porscha theory back up. I am specifically trying to envision a world where you are town, and this is the best that I can do.

The fact that alexa allegedly brought up Mac first in the vig chat is a strong indication that the wolf team was conscious of the optics of that chat.

LinearPoint wrote: ↑Fri Feb 11, 2022 3:30 pm There's also really the fact that Mafia cannot soup tonight if Belzy/Porscha are Mafia.
In fact they cannot soup until they are guaranteed the final 2.
So Mafia can't win by souping tonight if Belzy/Porscha are Mafia.
And if Mafia don't soup tonight Neeko's pretty sure Falcon just wins the game for Town.
So a Belzy/Porscha team is very unlikely and if they are the last two then Town still wins by default.

Who do you think are the last two wolves? If you had to choose two names right now.

LinearPoint wrote: ↑Fri Feb 11, 2022 3:26 pm Mafia probably could have had 3 people win the prize. Just given who won the prize that's impossible.

Correct. I am speaking in terms of POE. If Belzy is mafia, Porscha is her teammate. In this world, sabie is always town.

If LinearPoint is mafia, they just responded with skepticism to an attempt to paint a world where they're town on a day when they seem doomed for the chopping block. That seems at least a little bit unlikely.

LinearPoint wrote: ↑Fri Feb 11, 2022 3:12 pm

Sloonei wrote: ↑Fri Feb 11, 2022 3:09 pm [VOTE: belzy] aubergine

Let’s let this idea marinate for a little while.

But if you're theory is Alexa and Belzy bussed Mac with a vig shot to confirm Alexa, Belza, and Paopan as Town.
Why would Falcon bussing TSp with a fake cop check and confirming their scumbuddie Creature not also be possible?
Those are basically the same paranoid theory crafting, except Belzy and Alexa had no reason to shoot Mac just so Sabie would think they are Town.

All three of Alexa, Belzy, and Sabie could not have been mafia. Their private chat needed to be treated as a public space. I was not there, so I do not know exactly what happened. sabie has seemed adamant that Belzy's and alexa's version of events was slightly different from her own.

But also I am mostly just exploring options here. I have said repeatedly that today should be spent re-examining town reads. This is me re-examining the town reads on Belzy and Porscha. Part of my reasoning for doing this is the consideration that you are town. If you're not mafia, then it means we have missed the mark completely. This should concern everyone.

[VOTE: belzy] aubergine

Let’s let this idea marinate for a little while.

falcon45ca wrote: ↑Fri Feb 11, 2022 2:50 pm Can someone remind me about Belzy & Porscha?


Like, if they're confirmed, why/how, and why are they still alive?

If there is reason to reconsider Porscha and Belzy it is this: They were cleared by Alexa specifically. They were both already comfortable town reads, and had very deliberately linked themselves together in the thread. But then Alexa faked an outburst where she shouted out their role(s) as "toxic masons" to justify their connection to one another.

Alexa claimed to have learned this as the town role cop. We now know that she was not any sort of role cop or investigative role at all. However, she also had information about nutella's role on Day 1 of the game which turned out to be accurate (I think? I wasn't fully present and my memory may be wrong), so it's not unlikely that the mafia team has some sort of role cop ability and Alexa simply chose to act as a mouthpiece for that. Her report on Belzy and Porscha could be accurate.

However, now that we know Alexa's emotional outburst during which she "revealed" this information about Belzy and Porscha was fake (as in, her emotions were faked), we should call into question her motives. Was it just Alexa's attempt to secure her place in the towncore by providing accurate information about a pair of town roles? Or was it a more nefarious attempt to clear herself along with two teammates who had already backed themselves into a corner via association with one another?

Creature wrote: ↑Fri Feb 11, 2022 2:31 pm

Sloonei wrote: ↑Fri Feb 11, 2022 2:25 pm

Justplayingitcool wrote: ↑Fri Feb 11, 2022 2:19 pm

Sloonei wrote: ↑Fri Feb 11, 2022 2:17 pm That said, I still think we should spend the bulk of this day reaffirming our town reads. The next 24 hours are very busy for me, so I won't be much help. But I think it's wise to spend this time going over the players we've ruled out just in case we've missed anything. The last wolf may be hard to find, but if we lock everybody else in as town, there is nowhere to hide.

I won't be of much help tonight either. But the people I have ruled out so far are: creature, falcon, belzy and porscha

I assume that is everybody's list of people who are ruled out

If we feel that our cleared players are secure enough, we can just try to find town in the remaining players: you, me, sabie, LP, dya.

sabie and dyachei seem to be townreading each other off the BTSC.

Yes but we can still read them both for ourselves. The BTSC is not attached to either of their roles, and if one is town then the other would still need to act the part in private.

Creature wrote: ↑Fri Feb 11, 2022 2:29 pm Godfathers are hard. At least I know I'm not one.

also you are the only living green check.

Do we have reason to believe a godfather exists?

The only two people online talking about what people should do, when neither of us intends to do the work we're recommending. This is peak mafia.

Justplayingitcool wrote: ↑Fri Feb 11, 2022 2:19 pm

Sloonei wrote: ↑Fri Feb 11, 2022 2:17 pm That said, I still think we should spend the bulk of this day reaffirming our town reads. The next 24 hours are very busy for me, so I won't be much help. But I think it's wise to spend this time going over the players we've ruled out just in case we've missed anything. The last wolf may be hard to find, but if we lock everybody else in as town, there is nowhere to hide.

I won't be of much help tonight either. But the people I have ruled out so far are: creature, falcon, belzy and porscha

I assume that is everybody's list of people who are ruled out

If we feel that our cleared players are secure enough, we can just try to find town in the remaining players: you, me, sabie, LP, dya.

That said, I still think we should spend the bulk of this day reaffirming our town reads. The next 24 hours are very busy for me, so I won't be much help. But I think it's wise to spend this time going over the players we've ruled out just in case we've missed anything. The last wolf may be hard to find, but if we lock everybody else in as town, there is nowhere to hide.

Justplayingitcool wrote: ↑Fri Feb 11, 2022 2:09 pm

Sloonei wrote: ↑Fri Feb 11, 2022 2:01 pm If we are struggling to find a suspect after LinearPoint, let me suggest again that a lost wolf may exist in this game.

I'd be stunned if there is a lost wolf within the confirms (belzy/Porscha, Falcon and Creature). Dya is the only one who has mech who I could see being a likely candidate.

I guess Creature is possible if he shows up as good but then changes when all mafia are dead. but that seems doubtful

You are the only person who makes sense as a lost wolf to me. Perhaps dya as well.

I assume I would be a candidate for people that aren't me.

If we are struggling to find a suspect after LinearPoint, let me suggest again that a lost wolf may exist in this game.

LinearPoint wrote: ↑Fri Feb 11, 2022 4:38 am

Belzy wrote: ↑Fri Feb 11, 2022 4:28 am Final scum has to be Lp qnd Jpic.

We got too many reasons for others to be town. Lp is clearly connected to Alexa, and if you ISO Jpic you will see Jpic always defending scum by wrongly saying they cannot be teamed, and keeps voting for townies, just *trusting* the wrong person on the wrong wagon.

Not really but whatever Neeko doesn't really care anymore since no one else even wants to think logically for two seconds about Neeko's role.
Mafia probably can't win tonight anyways unless there is another rolecop check so not like it matters, but at least it'll be confirmed that Sloonie and JPIC are the Mafia.
There is just not other people that can be Mafia except for Dya or Sabie, but they are both fairly town from their actions even if neither has contributed to the day much.
Only real way we loose this is if Creature throws the end after the other 3 claimed players get souped since Neeko doubts he's been rolecopped.

What illogical things are being said about your role?

Porscha wrote: ↑Fri Feb 11, 2022 2:02 am

Sloonei wrote: ↑Fri Feb 11, 2022 1:55 am That’s a pretty major point to forget.

don't care have migraine alexa been riding my a$$ all game to pocket anyway. which I already called out as sus yesterday and only ilario agreed with me. it's all melding together

Migraines excuse all. Feel better, Porscha.

That’s a pretty major point to forget.

Porscha wrote: ↑Fri Feb 11, 2022 1:53 am

Creature wrote: ↑Thu Feb 10, 2022 7:27 pm

Sloonei wrote: ↑Thu Feb 10, 2022 7:24 pm LinearPoint and sabie’s claims both need serious re-examination in light of alexa’s flip.

Also let me take this time to say that ilario played brilliantly.

Damn, ilario's thing was an excellent catch

ilario also made a very strong case against you, what do you think about that

Falcon green checked Creature last night.

Porscha wrote: ↑Fri Feb 11, 2022 1:45 am

sabie12 wrote: ↑Thu Feb 10, 2022 7:18 pm

falcon45ca wrote: ↑Thu Feb 10, 2022 7:16 pm [VOTE: Linear Point] aubergine


falcon, creature, belzy, porscha confirmed?



I can't recall the exact nature of who's confirmed and who's not and why...is this right?

I don't consider belzy and porscha officially confirmed if alexa was BSing about having a role cop check on them.

I dont remember alexa claiming mech on confirming me and belzy. just pocketed us knowing we weren't wolf. fooled belzy real good lol

She named your role and neither you nor Belzy denied it.

dyachei wrote: ↑Thu Feb 10, 2022 9:21 pm I don't think it's sabie. Sabie and I have had a btsc since we both won the poetry contest. I'd be shocked if it were sabie

Interesting.
Who then?

This is true re: ilario

If the mafia team is not exactly sabie/linearpoint, then who should we look at?

I don't want to act as though I speak for everyone, but it feels like they are comfortably the two suspects we have at this point. Rather than continuing to try to bury them, we should work on solidifying our reads on others.

falcon45ca wrote: ↑Thu Feb 10, 2022 9:05 pm

Sloonei wrote: ↑Thu Feb 10, 2022 8:35 pm

falcon45ca wrote: ↑Thu Feb 10, 2022 8:33 pm [VOTE: sloon] aubergine

hi

Just a nagging suspicion that you're trying to powerwolf this town over the cliff rn

Not the case.

I'd encourage you to look at how alexa interacted with me and how I responded to ilario's case on her yesterday.

sabie12 wrote: ↑Thu Feb 10, 2022 9:00 pm

LinearPoint wrote: ↑Fri Jan 28, 2022 10:40 pm

alexa wrote: ↑Fri Jan 28, 2022 10:37 pm @LinearPoint please explain to me why nook gives mafia a rolecop + a soup kill? and why i as mafia would out that information right away if i'm literally their role cop? that makes no sense and the role makes way more sense as town (even if i'm not claiming that specific role i really don't get your logic)

Mafia Rolecop is just good role? Neeko would pick Mafia Rolecop over other roles.
Not sure what else you want?

So this interaction is a thing.

What are your thoughts on it?

Alexa claiming to have been given a bulletproof vest which was then spent on the night that C4 died is a lie all around. Her role was bulletproof, so there was never any way for that ability to have been spent in the first place. Her claim about having a "popped vest" was entirely false. We also know for certain that she was not the mafia kill target. It appears right now as though c4 was the mafia team kill that night. Sabie has already claimed responsibility for that shot.

It is possible that somebody else was targeted that night and survived by other means. I am open to alternative theories if they exist.

Today:

LinearPoint wrote: ↑Thu Feb 10, 2022 8:28 pm It might not have been a vest, but it doesn't make sense that Alexa not knowing Neeko's role to claim it was anything other than what it was.

Earlier:

LinearPoint wrote: ↑Fri Feb 04, 2022 9:35 pm

ilario wrote: ↑Fri Feb 04, 2022 9:33 pm

LinearPoint wrote: ↑Fri Feb 04, 2022 9:31 pm

Creature wrote: ↑Fri Feb 04, 2022 9:28 pm

LinearPoint wrote: ↑Fri Feb 04, 2022 9:25 pm As Neeko thinks about it more Alexa getting shot and having a vest popped actually kind of makes sense.
Neeko didn't think vests informed someone they got shot though, but since they do Alexa might be cleared if it wasn't a Vigilante shot.

sabie just claimed her vigilante shot was used on c4 ftr.

Then yeah Alexa had to have been shot by Mafia then.

I think I was the factional NK if it wasn’t c4

No, Neeko knows Alexa had a bulletproof vest so if Alexa got shot by not-Mafia then there's an unclaimed shot somewhere since she said her vest popped.

LinearPoint wrote: ↑Fri Feb 04, 2022 9:41 pm

ilario wrote: ↑Fri Feb 04, 2022 9:39 pm Like sure she could have been vested but my point is until I see a town role die that can gives vests there is nothing to verify that claim

OK Neeko thinks she can word this vague enough to not get souped.
Neeko gave Alexa a vest night 1. Neeko didn't realize until now that it gave feedback to the wearer when popped.
So yeah it's pretty much confirmed Alexa got shot last night.

falcon45ca wrote: ↑Thu Feb 10, 2022 8:33 pm [VOTE: sloon] aubergine

hi

alexa wrote: ↑Tue Feb 01, 2022 12:03 pm

Guillotine wrote: ↑Tue Feb 01, 2022 12:01 pm

sig wrote: ↑Tue Feb 01, 2022 11:59 am

sabie12 wrote: ↑Tue Feb 01, 2022 11:55 am

sig wrote: ↑Tue Feb 01, 2022 11:44 am Also just Did something

Did you just shoot nutella?

Oops?

In my defense I did do an ISO read and was seeing scum Nutella from that. Buuut, my bad sorry

I would have shot Alexa and not nutella but ok, at least my tinfoil is gone cause having seen arsonist would make me think thst nutella could be scum too.

FTR if anyone tries this it's a complete waste because i was given a BP vest. didn't want to claim that but lol

so uh, don't waste your shot on me

Alexa does claim to have been given a vest on Night 1, it appears. But also, this was her role:

Olgierd von Everec: Scarface; The Heart of Stone

You’re a super bulletproof–you are immune to all normal kills at night as well as day shots (including factional kills). There may or may not be a role or roles that supercede this. You can still be killed via vote.

So she had a built-in BP vest that could have been used for any convenient claiming purposes that came her way.

A world exists where exactly falcon and creature are mafia too, I suppose. But unlikely.
Or exactly Porscha and Belzy. But if that is the case, they stuck themselves out there way too early in the game for it to have been a viable strategy. So nah.

Belzy - Claimed and semi-confirmed mason with Porscha
Creature - Green checked by cop
dyachei - Killed Marmot Day 1 then gave birth to an actual human child in real life immediately after
falcon45ca - Cop. Provided green check on Master Radishes and Creature.
Justplayingitcool - In the POE
LinearPoint - In the POE
Porscha - Claimed and semi-confirmed mason with Belzy
sabie12 - In the POE
Sloonei - Me

Note that the only reason I list Belzy and Porscha as "semi-confirmed" is because Alexa was the source of information on the exact language of their role(s). I do not doubt that the information was true seeing as they both seemed to affirm it.

dya's a different shade of green because I suppose their argument is slightly less concrete than everyone else's. But I'm comfortable treating them as town, as I have been for several days now.

I read JPIC as town.

sabie12 wrote: ↑Thu Feb 10, 2022 8:10 pm Sloonei... if you're mafia then you have fabricated a lovely story and great job for that.

If you're town then I implore you to think about things in a different way. Think about what's really happening here. There's more to the story than what you think. I'm not out here trying to get people souped and I'm not trying to get souped. I'm not mafia and I hope you can figure that out.

I do have to go make dinner and watch Boba fett now.

From my perspective, the POE right now is you, LP, and JPIC. I have been thinking about this quite a lot. My mind is never made up on anything, but this is the scenario that makes the most sense to me right now. If we can uncover something that changes my mind, I will listen to it, of course.

LinearPoint wrote: ↑Thu Feb 10, 2022 8:09 pm

Sloonei wrote: ↑Thu Feb 10, 2022 8:03 pm

LinearPoint wrote: ↑Thu Feb 10, 2022 7:59 pm MR was probably the only one who could have healed Alexa since Neeko gave MR her second item N3. Neeko doesn’t actually know the times she gives out, but they are implied to be one time use protective actions. Neeko gave the third one out last night. But it probably doesn’t matter at this point since there really isn’t a way for town to win if it’s just going to be tunnel Neeko since Alexa was Mafia. Pretty sure it has to be JPIC and Sloonie though.

Any chance you could tell us who received your last item?

Falcon.

@falcon45ca

LinearPoint wrote: ↑Thu Feb 10, 2022 7:59 pm MR was probably the only one who could have healed Alexa since Neeko gave MR her second item N3. Neeko doesn’t actually know the times she gives out, but they are implied to be one time use protective actions. Neeko gave the third one out last night. But it probably doesn’t matter at this point since there really isn’t a way for town to win if it’s just going to be tunnel Neeko since Alexa was Mafia. Pretty sure it has to be JPIC and Sloonie though.

Any chance you could tell us who received your last item?

Justplayingitcool wrote: ↑Thu Feb 10, 2022 7:51 pm also alexa might have been hoping to have their poison healed as well

This too. She continued to play the game yesterday. She was not totally resigned.