The Syndicate

What's with this Roxy-splints-BR triangle all getting modkilled in one night? Spooky stuff.

I'm going to be out of town for roughly 3 & 1/2 days. I can post a little bit from my phone, but I won't be able to check the thread very often. I'll make a post when I get back and then start catching up from this post on page 137.

PAGE 137

Metalmarsh89 wrote:Based on this, a Jay lynch should stay on the table for tomorrow, but I'll have to look at Diiny as well.

Keep in mind that Diiny was very nearly the alternate candidate to Mac yesterday.

Also, now that I'm not a dummy and remembered that different sites play Mafia differently, I have a question.
@ Sloonei & MP, have the would-be victims of night kills been told that they were protected?

I would feel slightly better. J3 has been avoiding talking about suspicions raised against Wilgy.

It's almost exclusively his own content, Diiny. I would rather see J3 lynched because he's on record saying significantly more than Floyd. We get interactions and reads as opposed to just a number advantage.

Yes, motel, I suggested it on Wilgy. Mac's flip to scum should be a fire under my heels but it's not.

For clarity, I'm staying on Wilgy. I don't care if I'm the only one voting him.

Chinese Fire Drill with context to Mafia, Elo.

The term Chinese Fire Drill refers to an extremely quick wagon that forms at the end of the day, hours or sometimes even minutes before the lynch is finalized. It's most commonly used to save a player, usually a scum teammate, or to attempt to otherwise manipulate the lynch when a portion of the thread is away due to time constraints.

bcornett24 wrote:
RadicalFuzz wrote:bcornett I think you're bad because you seem to have very selective question answering skills. Questions that have been asked for days, not just once or twice, are hard to miss.

The only thing that leaps to mind for J3 downplaying or avoiding evidence is his apparent inability to discuss Wilgy. If I recall correctly he made a post asking for a rundown of the suspicions against him and then hushed up about it.
What great reasoning! There is no way it has anything to do with the thread having 5000 posts in it and having to catch up on ~20 pages several times.

You being so behind doesn't help your argument, surprisingly enough, because those questions actually were way back there in the thread. Wilgy is not exaggerating when he says he asked you a full week ago. Converting for the 48/24 cycle, let's call that Night 4 or Day 5.

J3 still has mentioned the case against Wilgy once, I believe, to state that he doesn't see it and ask what the reasons for lynching him are. No response to my answer shortly after.

Also I'm not getting enough flak for suggesting a Chinese fire drill at end of day yesterday. That looks objectively horrible, but I'm a town read across the board in our little experiment. Epi, I believe, was the only one to even mention it.

bcornett I think you're bad because you seem to have very selective question answering skills. Questions that have been asked for days, not just once or twice, are hard to miss.

The only thing that leaps to mind for J3 downplaying or avoiding evidence is his apparent inability to discuss Wilgy. If I recall correctly he made a post asking for a rundown of the suspicions against him and then hushed up about it.

Glad I'm the "almost."

I'm headed out, I was thoroughly disgusted by everyone's town reads of me.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:RUSSTIFINKO

SEASIDE

SIG

STRAWHENGE

THEFLOYD73

GOOD

BAD

GOOD

GOOD

BAD

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:MOTEL ROOM

RADICAL FUZZ

RICOCHET

ROXY

GOOD

GOOOOOOOD

GOOD

GOOD

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:FINGERSPLINTS

JAGGEDJIMMYJAY

MATT F

METALMARSH89

BAD

BAD

GOOD

GOOD

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:DIINY

DRWILGY

ELOHCIN

EPIGNOSIS

GOOD

BAD

GOOD

GOOD

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:BCORNETT24

BLACK ROCK

BULLZEYE

CHOUTAS

BAD

BAD

GOOD

GOOD

F me J3. I neeeeeed it.

I'd suggest you focus on scumhunting and only respond to major points. Logical scumhunting could not only dissuade us from lynching you for minor reasons, but in the case that you're town it is information that would be very useful.

Matt you're saying that motel is bad for pushing Strawhenge to save Mac but then turning around and saying they're both scum. If they're both scum why would they risk that open conversation if Strawhenge wasn't going to change his vote regardless?

My bad Wilgy, I do indeed have short term memory. Mac moved to you as a possible self-preservation wagon and commented that I'm town and you're scum before moving off to Diiny.

I replaced Reywas.

I want to see Wilgy burn today, slightly more so after Mac had nothing to say on the topic.

Matt by those criteria I should be on that list as well. I've stated reasons, though they're illogical, but I could be lying.

Now I know why games are weird here. I'm not automatically on the table to be lynched at all times.

You wound me, Epi. You're a very good [Power Rangers villain fused with Shao Kahn?] though.

Who is "keej/mojiki?" motel?

J3 I'm not exactly one to talk, I ramble at times, but being succinct can also convey a different tone. Saying something in five words can have a bigger impact than saying something in five sentences.

Still want Wilgy's blood, but Mac's flip combined with his "deal with him later" attitude towards bcornett puts him in voteworthy standing as well. bcornett isn't being modkilled, he's made at least one post these last 3 days, right?

See, motel, one of two things is going to happen regarding me and J3. One of us is going to be killed, and the other is going to be proven either Light or Near. The impostor, or the successor.

I'm assuming J3 will be killed before I will be, since I've decreased my credibility this phase in any situation that doesn't end in Wilgy flipping.

Wilgy you, as a Mafia player who understands the game, are aware of something. Information is king. Suspicions, reads, inklings, any game-relevant information helps town (barring extremes like knowing who Medic/UC are), and every civilian should aim to increase the total knowledge base of the town by giving their information as best they can. Your contributions have been raw vote data, trying to get bcornett to answer a question, and now implying you believe I'm dirty. If this is all you have to your name after six days, you are not helping the town win.

I thought my stance on Floyd was clear earlier but I'll reiterate. He looks bad, for the most part completely objectively. The logical conclusion if he looks objectively bad is that he is most likely bad. I will not be voting for him for illogical reasons. The reason I'm not going over any other players for the particularly same reason as you, Wilgy, is because I don't know them. I'm not going to assume that I know what Roxy believes to be good town play. I know that you're aware of your low contribution, but rather than trying to fix the problem you're attempting a No U, and that's not the correct move for town Wilgy here.

Motel, since you're familiar with the series, let's play a game. If I was L, who would Near be?

Epi, I'm trying to stress that ease of lynching is a minimal factor for my decision making process. Blame me for suggesting a Chinese fire drill, as I did, but don't omit that I wanted a Chinese fire drill onto my suspect in Wilgy.

J3, those are my suspicions against him. They're amplified because I know he doesn't believe in playing town like he currently is, however. I don't expect other players to have that coefficient due to familiarity, but I'll offer a substitution. Wilgy stated that he and I play very well off of each other. Has he made attempts to reach out to me in the thread, or has it been me attempting to work with him?

Pushing for a lynch is different than having your vote on him for a few hours at the beginning of the day, Metalmarsh. What you've done does not qualify as pushing for a lynch. I know why you don't want Wilgy lynched today, but that's selfish behavior and we can't afford to waste time.

Scum will be available to actively stop lynches against other scum and promote lynches against town. They know who their teammates are and want to avoid sending them to the gallows. As a rule of thumb, it stands that it's more difficult to lynch scum and easier to lynch town.

Motel I listed my reasons in an earlier post. He provides data but doesn't draw conclusions from it. The tone of his posts is that he's talking because he has to, not because he legitimately wants to spark useful discussion. He's banking his entire in-thread contribution into an infodumping plot that's was shot down before he could even get it started. Give me three stances Wilgy has taken in the thread in the last two phases.

For the purposes of this explanation let's assume that neutral refers to 50%, absolute town and scum are 0% and 100% respectively.

When I say that a player is hard to get lynched, that at most adds 3%. The opposite is also true, if the wagon on a player forms very quickly then that's 3% deducted at most. That is extremely minor.

Ah, the deadline is in four hours, my mistake.

I understand that you've put a lot of work into getting the lynch wagon on Mac going, and I respect the effort, but let me put it a different way.

I think Wilgy is dirtier than Mac. My preference would be to lynch the player I am most confident in being scum. In addition, Mac is a strange individual that I am unfamiliar with, while I've known Wilgy for years. Speaking for myself, I'd rather lynch Wilgy, because he's aware of the responsibility to play correctly that all civilians have. He hasn't been contributing what he should be contributing as a townie if he is one, and that leads me to believe that he's not. The Mac lynch is more complex, both the case and the player (to me), so I'd rather take the action that I believe to be more correct with the information I have available to me.

Actually, that could work.

Anybody up for a CFD? I nominate Wilgy.

I'm sad that there's no self-voting in this game.

Roughly two and a half hours, if nothing changes. And that seems unlikely, barring any Chinese firemen entering the thread.

MacDougall wrote:Because he is obvscum. Bullzeye is scum. Fuzz is scum. Look to the throwaway votes imo.

You got me excited that you actually thought I was scum, but then you don't list me in your next post. I feel neglected. I also feel annoyed that you asked me to put in work on post analysis and then call the result of that post analysis a throwaway vote. Would you rather me ignore the conclusions I've come to?

You are correct, however, that the inverse is true for you. With so many players pushing your lynch that's a slight indication that you're not scum.

sig wrote:Mac I can see the arguments against him, but with the current trend of mislynching I'm unsure about him and need to think on it some

What is this supposed to mean?

Why aren't I asking Floyd questions or trying to involve him? I don't have questions that I would learn anything from asking. The occasional strange question with no correct answer is fun to throw out sometimes, but rarely productive.

Floyd looks bad, no two ways about it. I'm aware that he's had a horrible situation and that's why his contribution is so low, but even the posts he has made have been borderline scumslips. "Do you mean the in-thread text" being the prime example, to me.

Despite that, I'm not going to lynch him on that unless I have to. For a game of this size to be his first, particularly with the bad timing of his IRL situation, he deserves a chance. I'm familiar with at least part of his position, entering into a large game and being overwhelmed, and I'm not going to lynch him for what he's done so far.

I'm aware this is illogical, and likely unpopular. If the time comes that he participates in the thread and says things that I find suspicious, then I will vote him. Until that point, I'm not going to vote for Floyd. I don't condemn any votes against him, it's a perfectly logical move, but I won't join.

MM, my logic is as follows. If Wilgy was town and I was wrongly pushing him, Mafia would want to help me push his mislynch, and there would be at least some mention of him. However, the opposite applies, it's very hard to get the ball rolling to lynch Mafia because a portion of the game is actively working to prevent that. It's a small thing, but enough to irk me. I'm not asking players to talk about Wilgy, everyone will naturally talk about their preferred topic, but I'm observing a disconcerting silence. Were you buddying with me on this topic because you wanted to push Wilgy or wanted to get me to look at you favorably?

Wilgy I'm asking J3 many questions because he's both around to answer them and I want him to answer them incorrectly. To my dismay he hasn't yet responded illogically. And if that's your roundabout way of asking me whether I think J3 is town or not, the answer is complicated. I would vote for him in lieu of concrete evidence for anybody else, but my suspicion of him is still extremely circumstantial.

The main reason to lynch Mac, for me, is because he wanted to lynch Sorsha to get information either way, as Rico said. However, he never actually said what kind of information he would get from the lynch. His reactions to Matt's SK accusation read town to me. That's enough for me to hesitate. In the meantime I'm pursuing Wilgy, and that's gotten nowhere. Mac, I believe it was, who asked me to put in effort on post analysis, had nothing to say. Wilgy had pretty much nothing to say. Nobody cares about Wilgy. That makes me feel marginally worse about Wilgy.

With the information that I believe you're trying to tell me with that, Wilgy, I don't see how that changes my conclusion. I don't have anything to work off of here, so rather than assume some hidden shenanigans I have to base my conclusions off of what I can see. You're not making me feel better by continually making vague statements that you can't or won't back up when that's a part of my suspicion against you. Until you can convince me otherwise, and I sincerely hope you do, my conclusion is that you're scum and my vote will stay on you.

Metalmarsh, I don't feel inclined to make a case that you're scum at this moment.

If you've got a lot on your plate, MM, don't worry about making a case against me. Someone will eventually do it, even if it's only because I've been alive for a long time. I say this non-sarcastically.

seaside wrote:just because i can't explain it, doesn't mean it isn't well thought out and solid

You're not entirely wrong, but if you can't coherently explain what your theory is how do you expect people to look at it and form their own conclusions? We're not going to take your word that this theory you can't properly explain solves everything and we should blindly follow you.

On the topic of DrWilgy (spoilered to save space because apparently any mobile players are masochistic to a ridiculous extent):

Spoiler: show

DrWilgy wrote:JJJ is probably scum. Only 55% sure though

This is a completely useless post designed to make it appear as if Wilgy suspects J3 without having to actually put any substantial suspicions out into the thread. Research and post effort shouldn't be an issue, given Wilgy's history in this game, but he's content to say only this. He doesn't elaborate later, either, radio silence is preserved on this matter.

When I asked him how J3 was "probably scum" and what that would make me, as J3 has expressed nothing but townreads towards me, he responded with this:

DrWilgy wrote:You are still exempt from my lists. I'm still tone reading you as good though (maybe because of your avatar and friendly bias). A scum's interaction with other players is player based and I dont have enough meta history on JJJ to determine how he would interact with you (a new variable)

Wilgy doesn't believe the last sentence here. By his logic I'm literally unable to scumhunt since he's the only player I've played with or read before. It feels to me like a cheap post to reference later to explain a "long-standing suspicion" for a vote. I question him on that, and his response is lackluster again:

DrWilgy wrote:
RadicalFuzz wrote:I'm exempt from your lists? That's a nice way of saying that you're intending to push me later without being held accountable for an opinion now. Thanks for the response.
and
Lol, you got me!

No, the player you subbed for just missed votes, so I don't have the intel to properly judge your actions and interactions.

You shouldn't need several days of votes from someone who was, in your words, a wallflower to form an opinion of that player's replacement. Reywas missed votes, yes, but Reywas isn't here anymore. You don't need to read Reywas, you need to read me, and you refuse to do that aside from an extremely non-committal "tone reading you as good," which apparently nearly everyone is.

RadicalFuzz wrote:I've been here, voting and talking. You require more than that to reach some form of basic conclusion? Did you not make any initial conclusions on the other players until Day 3?

DrWilgy wrote:I do. I assume that I know you better than anyone else here, and I don't want to make any false assumptions about you. I did make assumptions before day 3, and it was fun, but to be honest since then I've been hung up on day 2. I just noticed that you use the word conclusions. Why is this? Have you game solved already? Should the game have been already solved by others?

I don't like how he chooses to focus on wording here. I'd used the term "conclusions" in that context prior in the thread but he didn't seem to mind. Of course I don't mean to say that I have the game solved, he's attempting to draw attention from my other points by raising minor petty objections. He also says that he knows me better than anyone else here (implying he knows me well, which is true) but is worried about making false assumptions. There are no assumptions to make here, only logical conclusions, and his familiarity with me should decrease the occurrence of incorrect conclusions by at least a small margin.
He then asks who several players targeted last night. He's quickly shot down and claims he "invested so much" into that strategy.

DrWilgy wrote:Mac, Matt, Fuzz and Floyd, who did you target last night?

We had a fail kill and no psycho killer. Chances are one of y'all intervined, possibly in both, and y'all should know how. JJJ you should know as well.

I will explain everything as soon as I'm back from the renaissance festival.

JJJ, no beef, got much love for ya

DrWilgy wrote:Ugh... There goes that play. I invested so much into that too...

He apparently has become obsessed with trying to figure out if Floyd, Mac, Matt, or I stopped a night kill. So much so that he doesn't talk about his graph or color-coded vote data whatsoever.

DrWilgy wrote:Floyd, Fuzz, or Matt, did epi miss a night kill?

This specific post was after he was told that asking who a player targeted wasn't allowed. He's pushing this angle significantly more than any of his other points. He says absolutely nothing about any conclusions he draws from his vote data color-coding, and chooses to use the majority of his time on this gambit that seems increasingly likely to cross the line to infodumping.

His inability to draw conclusions based on vote data that he collected looks bad. The only conclusion he drew from the "point system" vote data analysis was that Golden was bad and deserved his vote. It is very unlikely that Golden was scum, so it wouldn't be illogical for Wilgy to discard vote data alone as a scumhunting tool. However, he continues to post vote data without using it to form any conclusions. This makes me believe he wants to appear as if he's still contributing a new angle to the thread without having to actually use the information. This, combined with his extreme hesitation in even attempting to read me, leads me to believe that he either doesn't want a trail or doesn't want to go on record saying something. Often attempting to say something known to be false opens cracks and inconsistencies with tone, it's the human factor at work. I believe Wilgy is explicitly trying to avoid this.

If you want a TL;DR the closest you're getting is the last paragraph of the spoiler.

DrWilgy

It's really annoying being seen as generally town-neutral but not town or dirty enough to get a fun color in everybody's fun-filled rainbow lists.

Wilgy talk coming up shortly.

MM I thought you were my friend.

I speak to you all as someone who plays via mobile occasionally.

For the love of god use spoilers. Open your phone to this page and imagine Rico's post being quoted ten times, in addition to actual new content under it that would then get quoted and replied to in turn. I can't imagine a world where not wanting to wade through all of that constantly is considered scum-exclusive behavior.

Mac I see what you're putting down. Don't know what it means, but I see it.

Wilgy I have no idea what role Epi is or whether or not he was able to kill last night. This applies to everyone in the thread, the exceptions being myself and J3. I have an educated guess on what role J3 is.

Being on nearly everyone's "not lynching today" lists is disconcerting. Someone make a case for me being scum, if you'd kindly.

J3 I apologize for the misplaced argument.

I asked both J3 and Wilgy questions about each other. J3 responded while Wilgy did not. My best guess as for Wilgy's reaction if he was scum with J3 would be to coordinate responses.

It's an extremely minor thing, and can honestly be interpreted either way, but I find it interesting nonetheless.

J3, as I recall, you were confident that Mac was town. The tone I was getting was that of more confidence than most of your other statements.

It's not strange with regards to you answering the question, rather that one of two people asked did and the other did not.

The surprise at your confidence in Wilgy is the same as your surprise at your Mac stance. I thought you had expressed concern that Wilgy was more concerned with putting up fancy graphs or charts that appear to contain a lot of information while avoiding giving reads or conclusions based off that information. Also I strongly dislike his attempted jump on me for using the word "conclusions" earlier. He knows better than that.

Why Straw?

Very well Mac, I'll get my hands dirty. It's late, and I won't be around for very long tomorrow, but Monday shall see if it is fruitful.

I'd give all three to you and give the beer you didn't drink to Wilgy.

J3 - You understand why I can't trust you anymore.

I asked you the "name three people that won't stab you in the back" question to see what order your list the names in. Mac should've been first, and I thought there was a good possibility I was there, but since you were so adamant on Mac he naturally would've been the first player you thought of. Why Straw? And when exactly did your opinion of Mac change?

The second was to see if you would both answer the question. Only you did. Curiouser and curiouser.

Why did you put Wilgy in your "won't lynch" category?

The reversed question also applies to Wilgy. Ignoring the possibility of J3 being lynched, what night phase do you think he will get killed?

J3 I'm aware you're out at the moment, but I want your opinion on something.

Ignoring the possibility of being lynched, what night phase do you think Wilgy will get killed?

Thanks for the clarification Bullzeye.

Is that last part a typo or do you suspect people that you already trust bringing up valid cases?

Would you mind listing what you disagree with me on?

And it's likely a wording or definition issue, but it irks me to see that you haven't suspected me. You should be suspecting everybody, especially the players you think are right.

Bullzeye, if you're still here, how have my posts in the last hour changed your opinion of me? Feel free to do a simple before and after analysis instead of a short answer. I'll read it.

It's always fun to see people who are apparently convinced they'll be killed at night.

Ah, I misinterpreted your frustrations. He asked you to do something you believed to be against the rules. I thought you were upset at Matt seemingly trying to use modkills to his advantage as a player.

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