The Syndicate

I think there is a pretty decent chance that this is making Axe town. Axe picking a tunnel and spam pushing it this way is townie, and so is thinking he has some bs tell read on me.

I am just going to continue to try to solve the game in the hopes that a miracle occurs.

I just ISO'd C4 and there is nothing redeemable there. In light of the flips all he's done is push on town and at no point did I see any single post that looked like a townslip or something a mafia couldn't concoct.

NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Thu Mar 03, 2022 8:26 pm
Hally wrote: ↑Thu Mar 03, 2022 8:23 pm well now is a great time to explain it
Remember when I said DrWilgy is polarized based on an unintuitive mechanics read?

Mac has a technical tell too - it's just more complicated / applies to people other than himself.

Well I am not mafia so all of this tell or whatever bullshit you've got going on here is just bullshit.

NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Thu Mar 03, 2022 8:21 pm
Hally wrote: ↑Thu Mar 03, 2022 8:19 pm
NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Thu Mar 03, 2022 8:17 pm My scum read pre-dates that but also Nanook cc of wilgy was scummy and didn't seem like a cover.
what was scummy about it?
Hmm, actually it isn't, just Mac is mafia.

I'm not mafia dude.

This is what's going to happen here.

I am trying to solve the game by analysing ISOs, VCA and other things. It's going to point at what it points at. If it points at you I am going to articulate it. If it doesn't I will articulate it.

You're just going to say Mac is scum Mac is scum Mac is scum all day long with no actual justification beyond "reasons" or whatever.

Either it's going to point at you and this is going to lock the game into a hard dome between us. If you are town we lose the game.

Or it's going to point away from you and you are going to tunnel me anyway and get me killed and town will lose the game.

So I would implore you, if you are in fact town, to at some point refrain from your natural instincts to just pick a name out of a hat and confirmation bias everything they do into a scumread.

Let's talk about c4 for a bit.

NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Thu Mar 03, 2022 8:12 pm
MacDougall wrote: ↑Thu Mar 03, 2022 8:11 pm
NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Thu Mar 03, 2022 8:07 pm
MacDougall wrote: ↑Thu Mar 03, 2022 8:07 pm
JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Thu Mar 03, 2022 6:56 pm My absolute first GTH guess is c4/NAA.

I have to think about things though and don’t want to conf bias any theories.
I agree. I think this is the team.
Goes from I'm defending you to I'm hard scum reading you in 1 page
I, had been, defending you prior to today.

Reevaluating to find you mafia, does not an outed wolf make amigo.
All I hear is howling.

Good for you.

Hally wrote: ↑Thu Mar 03, 2022 8:10 pm one thing to note re: the marmot kill

from wolves’ pov the setup was either 1 or C

they knew that a BP was in the game from the start because BP is always with two goons but they didn’t know whether watcher or tracker was the other PR

and watcher is the most dangerous town PR in the matrix and the possibility of it being in the game would definitely make wolves dodge

my guess is they thought i would be watched N1 (or jay if he’s v) so they went for marmot instead? so i don’t know if marmot dying over me actually means anything, which was my one reservation with NAA being a wolf D2

Further to that, Marmot's POE was Alison/Mac/Axe.

Quite likely there is a guaranteed hit between Axe and I.

NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Thu Mar 03, 2022 8:07 pm
MacDougall wrote: ↑Thu Mar 03, 2022 8:07 pm
JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Thu Mar 03, 2022 6:56 pm My absolute first GTH guess is c4/NAA.

I have to think about things though and don’t want to conf bias any theories.
I agree. I think this is the team.
Goes from I'm defending you to I'm hard scum reading you in 1 page

I, had been, defending you prior to today.

Reevaluating to find you mafia, does not an outed wolf make amigo.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Thu Mar 03, 2022 6:56 pm My absolute first GTH guess is c4/NAA.

I have to think about things though and don’t want to conf bias any theories.

I agree. I think this is the team.

NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Thu Mar 03, 2022 8:03 pm
MacDougall wrote: ↑Thu Mar 03, 2022 8:01 pm I think that I can reduce my tinfoil irt the whole "ree gamestate spews deepwolves" thing simply by virtue of;

a) Axe might just be mafia tbh. Which would mean Hally has just been really townie and gud.
b) The mafia have really only had the opportunity to kill one single town without it being mapped out before them.
Ok, so you're just mafia.

No, I am not "just mafia". I am town and I have also articulated quite well how I have arrived at the place that I have.

Hally wrote: ↑Thu Mar 03, 2022 8:02 pm fine, sorry i’ll try not be an ass

really have no idea how anyone could consider me as a wolf here though, and especially not a wolf with axe who i have been trying to kill all game as everyone ignores me

1. Brief speculation of a thought and posting it is not tantamount to believing it and pushing it as a reality.
2. You are right that you are probably the least likely pairing.
3. Being suspected is not an insult, nor is it a justification for lashing out.

I think that I can reduce my tinfoil irt the whole "ree gamestate spews deepwolves" thing simply by virtue of;

a) Axe might just be mafia tbh. Which would mean Hally has just been really townie and gud.
b) The mafia have really only had the opportunity to kill one single town without it being mapped out before them.

Hally wrote: ↑Thu Mar 03, 2022 7:58 pm
MacDougall wrote: ↑Thu Mar 03, 2022 7:57 pm
Hally wrote: ↑Thu Mar 03, 2022 7:56 pm scene from wolfchat

mac: yo, you should pretend to derp about wilgy flipping BP and i’ll clear you off it
axe: nobody will ever buy that lol
mac: no dude just trust me
axe: alright if you insist, and i’ll try to spew you clear on my way down
I'd rather not be mocked please. I am not really up for it.
then please get with it

So I have to get with it, in order to avoid you mocking me? Pretty rude tbh.

Such a rude game this has been. And that's coming from me.

Hally wrote: ↑Thu Mar 03, 2022 7:57 pm
MacDougall wrote: ↑Thu Mar 03, 2022 7:54 pm
Hally wrote: ↑Thu Mar 03, 2022 7:52 pm
MacDougall wrote: ↑Thu Mar 03, 2022 7:50 pm yes because the wolf team that's left haven't spewed themselves distanced, good joke
so your solve is that i’m a 500 posting wolf who has been hard bussing my teammate since the beginning of the game?

are you trolling?
Do you realise who you are speaking to Hally?
yes, which is why i assume you can’t actually believe that

Hally, who said anything about believing? I don't have the solve so I don't believe anything. I am speculating and trying to solve the game in front of you with the knowledge that I do have. Which is literally my own alignment and Marmot's NK.

NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Thu Mar 03, 2022 7:57 pm
MacDougall wrote: ↑Thu Mar 03, 2022 7:56 pm
NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Thu Mar 03, 2022 7:52 pm
Hally wrote: ↑Thu Mar 03, 2022 7:52 pm
MacDougall wrote: ↑Thu Mar 03, 2022 7:50 pm yes because the wolf team that's left haven't spewed themselves distanced, good joke
so your solve is that i’m a 500 posting wolf who has been hard bussing my teammate since the beginning of the game?

are you trolling?
He's not trolling, he's mafia.
I struggle to understand how you could be of the view I am mafia given the amount of energy I have consumed shielding you. What is my agenda here? To make the game more difficult for myself and nearly get myself lynched tying myself in knots to townread you, for science?
I don't know, I haven't read up, so I don't know any of your stances.

You're telling me you're unaware that I've been townreading you a ton this game and shielding you?

NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Thu Mar 03, 2022 7:56 pm
MacDougall wrote: ↑Thu Mar 03, 2022 7:54 pm
NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Thu Mar 03, 2022 7:52 pm
Hally wrote: ↑Thu Mar 03, 2022 7:52 pm
MacDougall wrote: ↑Thu Mar 03, 2022 7:50 pm yes because the wolf team that's left haven't spewed themselves distanced, good joke
so your solve is that i’m a 500 posting wolf who has been hard bussing my teammate since the beginning of the game?

are you trolling?
He's not trolling, he's mafia.
No, I am not mafia.
Sounds like something a wolf would say.

Yes they probably would. Very articulate and useful solving you are doing.

Hally wrote: ↑Thu Mar 03, 2022 7:56 pm scene from wolfchat

mac: yo, you should pretend to derp about wilgy flipping BP and i’ll clear you off it
axe: nobody will ever buy that lol
mac: no dude just trust me
axe: alright if you insist, and i’ll try to spew you clear on my way down

I'd rather not be mocked please. I am not really up for it.

NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Thu Mar 03, 2022 7:52 pm
Hally wrote: ↑Thu Mar 03, 2022 7:52 pm
MacDougall wrote: ↑Thu Mar 03, 2022 7:50 pm yes because the wolf team that's left haven't spewed themselves distanced, good joke
so your solve is that i’m a 500 posting wolf who has been hard bussing my teammate since the beginning of the game?

are you trolling?
He's not trolling, he's mafia.

I struggle to understand how you could be of the view I am mafia given the amount of energy I have consumed shielding you. What is my agenda here? To make the game more difficult for myself and nearly get myself lynched tying myself in knots to townread you, for science?

NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Thu Mar 03, 2022 7:52 pm
Hally wrote: ↑Thu Mar 03, 2022 7:52 pm
MacDougall wrote: ↑Thu Mar 03, 2022 7:50 pm yes because the wolf team that's left haven't spewed themselves distanced, good joke
so your solve is that i’m a 500 posting wolf who has been hard bussing my teammate since the beginning of the game?

are you trolling?
He's not trolling, he's mafia.

No, I am not mafia.

Hally wrote: ↑Thu Mar 03, 2022 7:52 pm
MacDougall wrote: ↑Thu Mar 03, 2022 7:50 pm yes because the wolf team that's left haven't spewed themselves distanced, good joke
so your solve is that i’m a 500 posting wolf who has been hard bussing my teammate since the beginning of the game?

are you trolling?

Do you realise who you are speaking to Hally?

Losing the BP night 2 is fucking annoying and especially annoying that we have no sleep option to compensate for it because we have literally one night kill to analyse. Marmot dying night 1. That is really dumb.

yes because the wolf team that's left haven't spewed themselves distanced, good joke

Hally wrote: ↑Thu Mar 03, 2022 7:46 pm
MacDougall wrote: ↑Thu Mar 03, 2022 7:39 pm
Hally wrote: ↑Thu Mar 03, 2022 7:27 pm
MacDougall wrote: ↑Thu Mar 03, 2022 7:23 pm
c4e5g3d5 wrote: ↑Thu Mar 03, 2022 6:38 pm Sorry for not being louder @Dyslexicon. It felt like an increasingly obvious mistake as the EoD went on.

I have two clears. I'll be giving them due diligence, but in the meantime

Axe
Jay
Mac

Who in here can be unaligned?
So I mean, we take this to presume C4's "clears" are Nanook and Hally.

Hally and C4 both come into the day with a clear on Nanook, a thought I did not have. C4 also clearing Hally but seemingly not the inverse. Both were voting Axe together over the two town.

I would say it's rather guaranteed that one of them is mafia and it is probably just C4.
i don’t understand how your conclusion follows from anything you said above it but i’m a villager
Dizzy voters alive - Axe, Jay
Mac voters alive - Nanook
Axe voters alive - Hally, C4

Obviously I have the benefit of knowing that I am town. I survived a 3/3 flip with another town. In this scenario it is quite likely that at least one of the mafia was outside the vote imo. It is unlikely both mafia were stacking on Axe. It is likely therefore that there is one mafia between you and C4. You both came out with firm clears on Nanook, with c4 extending that courtesy to you. I didn't have Nanook as clear entering the day, and I don't have you clear so that bothers me about both of you also. I have C4 as significantly more scummy than you on play (though a caveat later).

I am reading Jay as my top town still (maybe I am a sucker). You and C4 are both clearing Nanook. Nanook doesn't feel aligned to you specifically. I am strongly willing to rule out Nanook/Hally. In fact it is quite likely that C4/Hally treating Nanook is a clear is spewing him in fact clear. It is plausible that both of you actually presumed he would be read clear from "roleswapping" and are spewing him so. I am willing to take him as a clear now that my hard difference check are treating him as such.

So unless I reopen my POE and attempt to reside in a world where Jay has out of nowhere decided to perform his best mafia game I've ever seen (this is no hyperbole, I have never seen him match his town meta to this degree before). I have a POE of 3 with a hard difference check between you and C4, which essentially makes Axe a red check I guess.
alright, this makes more sense now

well i can tell you that i never freeze like that as a wolf at EoD and stay on axe when i can choose to kill you or dizzy assuming v/v

when i’m a wolf i always vote on a main wagon and i would just vote whichever of you/dizzy i thought was more dangerous to me instead of trying to get a cfd on axe

i frequently freeze and stay off wagon as a villager though

i mean, this is pretty heavily spewing axe as mafia and your teammate lol.

Hally wrote: ↑Thu Mar 03, 2022 7:37 pm
MacDougall wrote: ↑Thu Mar 03, 2022 7:29 pm I feel like the actual solve is going to be virtually the least likely one and if I figure it out and push into it I will probably just get mischopped in retaliation lol.
do you actually think i can be a wolf here?

Yeah of course. What kind of question is that?

So the caveat is that I struggle to believe that we get to mylo with the gamestate in this level of disarray with C4/Axe as the team. That means no offence to them, but neither of them have powerwolfed this game and the current scenario lends itself to that likelihood.

So that, in actuality increases the likelihood that I am either wrong about Jay or Hally, or both.

Hally wrote: ↑Thu Mar 03, 2022 7:27 pm
MacDougall wrote: ↑Thu Mar 03, 2022 7:23 pm
c4e5g3d5 wrote: ↑Thu Mar 03, 2022 6:38 pm Sorry for not being louder @Dyslexicon. It felt like an increasingly obvious mistake as the EoD went on.

I have two clears. I'll be giving them due diligence, but in the meantime

Axe
Jay
Mac

Who in here can be unaligned?
So I mean, we take this to presume C4's "clears" are Nanook and Hally.

Hally and C4 both come into the day with a clear on Nanook, a thought I did not have. C4 also clearing Hally but seemingly not the inverse. Both were voting Axe together over the two town.

I would say it's rather guaranteed that one of them is mafia and it is probably just C4.
i don’t understand how your conclusion follows from anything you said above it but i’m a villager

Dizzy voters alive - Axe, Jay
Mac voters alive - Nanook
Axe voters alive - Hally, C4

Obviously I have the benefit of knowing that I am town. I survived a 3/3 flip with another town. In this scenario it is quite likely that at least one of the mafia was outside the vote imo. It is unlikely both mafia were stacking on Axe. It is likely therefore that there is one mafia between you and C4. You both came out with firm clears on Nanook, with c4 extending that courtesy to you. I didn't have Nanook as clear entering the day, and I don't have you clear so that bothers me about both of you also. I have C4 as significantly more scummy than you on play (though a caveat later).

I am reading Jay as my top town still (maybe I am a sucker). You and C4 are both clearing Nanook. Nanook doesn't feel aligned to you specifically. I am strongly willing to rule out Nanook/Hally. In fact it is quite likely that C4/Hally treating Nanook is a clear is spewing him in fact clear. It is plausible that both of you actually presumed he would be read clear from "roleswapping" and are spewing him so. I am willing to take him as a clear now that my hard difference check are treating him as such.

So unless I reopen my POE and attempt to reside in a world where Jay has out of nowhere decided to perform his best mafia game I've ever seen (this is no hyperbole, I have never seen him match his town meta to this degree before). I have a POE of 3 with a hard difference check between you and C4, which essentially makes Axe a red check I guess.

I feel like the actual solve is going to be virtually the least likely one and if I figure it out and push into it I will probably just get mischopped in retaliation lol.

It feels unlikely the game would get to mylo no flips and in a state of disarray if the solve was C4/Axe imo.

Hally wrote: ↑Thu Mar 03, 2022 7:23 pm
MacDougall wrote: ↑Thu Mar 03, 2022 7:21 pm
Hally wrote: ↑Thu Mar 03, 2022 7:18 pm
MacDougall wrote: ↑Thu Mar 03, 2022 7:16 pm
Hally wrote: ↑Thu Mar 03, 2022 7:14 pm
MacDougall wrote: ↑Thu Mar 03, 2022 7:09 pm
Hally wrote: ↑Thu Mar 03, 2022 7:07 pm
solve it how? wilgy is dead
That... is a derp to a level that's night unfakeable lmao.
no way town derps about that
What do you mean? You think mafia Axe's plan is to just pretend like DrWilgy didn't die and flip beloved princess?
you think town NAA doesn’t know the night was 48 hours? lol
entirely possible honestly
mac, 24 hours passed, wilgy died, the night changed to 2.5 then radishes died 24 hours later

nobody is disconnected enough to miss all that

and a mafia does?

I would say that the solve is either C4/Hally or C4/Axe.

c4e5g3d5 wrote: ↑Thu Mar 03, 2022 6:38 pm Sorry for not being louder @Dyslexicon. It felt like an increasingly obvious mistake as the EoD went on.

I have two clears. I'll be giving them due diligence, but in the meantime

Axe
Jay
Mac

Who in here can be unaligned?

So I mean, we take this to presume C4's "clears" are Nanook and Hally.

Hally and C4 both come into the day with a clear on Nanook, a thought I did not have. C4 also clearing Hally but seemingly not the inverse. Both were voting Axe together over the two town.

I would say it's rather guaranteed that one of them is mafia and it is probably just C4.

Hally wrote: ↑Thu Mar 03, 2022 7:18 pm
MacDougall wrote: ↑Thu Mar 03, 2022 7:16 pm
Hally wrote: ↑Thu Mar 03, 2022 7:14 pm
MacDougall wrote: ↑Thu Mar 03, 2022 7:09 pm
Hally wrote: ↑Thu Mar 03, 2022 7:07 pm
NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Thu Mar 03, 2022 7:03 pm I think it goes without saying we should solve Nanook / DrWilgy. We should have solved that Yesterday
solve it how? wilgy is dead
That... is a derp to a level that's night unfakeable lmao.
no way town derps about that
What do you mean? You think mafia Axe's plan is to just pretend like DrWilgy didn't die and flip beloved princess?
you think town NAA doesn’t know the night was 48 hours? lol

entirely possible honestly

Hally wrote: ↑Thu Mar 03, 2022 6:37 pm been kicking myself for my EoD for the past 48 hours

i wanted to vote mac to save dizzy but i was hoping we could get NAA over instead and poll was closed when i went to change to mac

just atrocious play on my part, sorry

this is kinda lacking in TMI... not sure someone would describe their play in this context as atrocious knowing that I am town lol

Hally wrote: ↑Thu Mar 03, 2022 7:14 pm
MacDougall wrote: ↑Thu Mar 03, 2022 7:09 pm
Hally wrote: ↑Thu Mar 03, 2022 7:07 pm
NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Thu Mar 03, 2022 7:03 pm I think it goes without saying we should solve Nanook / DrWilgy. We should have solved that Yesterday
solve it how? wilgy is dead
That... is a derp to a level that's night unfakeable lmao.
no way town derps about that

What do you mean? You think mafia Axe's plan is to just pretend like DrWilgy didn't die and flip beloved princess?

c4e5g3d5 wrote: ↑Thu Mar 03, 2022 6:34 pm
Hally wrote: ↑Thu Mar 03, 2022 6:32 pmcan we sleep?
We can't

And Nook is in fact town

So what was your reason for this read?

Hally wrote: ↑Thu Mar 03, 2022 7:07 pm
NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Thu Mar 03, 2022 7:03 pm I think it goes without saying we should solve Nanook / DrWilgy. We should have solved that Yesterday
solve it how? wilgy is dead

That... is a derp to a level that's night unfakeable lmao.

Ah yeah the fuck off read I guess is a thing...

"Roleswapping" with Wilgy is NAI for Nanook though in my opinion. There is like, no mafia downside to doing so and incredible upside (surviving, killing the BP, getting to mylo with people reading it as roleswapping and not wanting to kill you lol).

But, yeah ok.

well I do at least have more info than y'all in that I know flat out that the wagons were t/t... so I guess I should be mindful of people who played like they were aware of that

moreover to anyone but hally, am I the only one that has no idea why nook is clear? lol

why is nook a clear first and foremost?

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Thu Mar 03, 2022 6:52 pm Might be pointless to say but:

I’m town.
I’m town.
I’m town.
I’m town.
I’m town.

I think it’s emotionally obvious, but I understand we’re all gonna get suspicion today so fine.

Okay. Hmm.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Thu Mar 03, 2022 6:51 pm I am out playing tennis and will be around later.

First concern: NAA had Mac in a strong difference check with Nanook, and stayed on the Dizzy wagon after the Nanook/Wilgy BP business.

Hmmm. @NotAnAxehole explanation perchance?

Tennis is quite wolfy.

I am leaning towards Jay/Axe though fwiw.

that is to say that there would still be two mafia alive obviously

Hally wrote: ↑Thu Mar 03, 2022 6:37 pm been kicking myself for my EoD for the past 48 hours

i wanted to vote mac to save dizzy but i was hoping we could get NAA over instead and poll was closed when i went to change to mac

just atrocious play on my part, sorry

voting mac to save dizzy would have been an identical situation except dizzy would be here and I would be dead so meh

Hally wrote: ↑Thu Mar 03, 2022 6:44 pm
c4e5g3d5 wrote: ↑Thu Mar 03, 2022 6:38 pm Sorry for not being louder @Dyslexicon. It felt like an increasingly obvious mistake as the EoD went on.

I have two clears. I'll be giving them due diligence, but in the meantime

Axe
Jay
Mac

Who in here can be unaligned?
i wouldn’t unalign any of them from each other

that's quite a statement to make out of hand? how much effort did you consume determining that before you arrived there?

Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Tue Mar 01, 2022 5:58 pm There's scum between Mac/Jay and I'd even say Hally. That is scary. Likely Mac imo.

NAA is also probably just mafia btw.

Wilgy/Nanook will likely become clear.

there really probably just is not mafia between mac/Jay and hally no matter how much you say it

Hally wrote: ↑Tue Mar 01, 2022 5:57 pm i really don’t know what’s going on

both mafia fake claimed BP in a game they know there isn't one

NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Tue Mar 01, 2022 5:56 pm [VOTE: mac] aubergine

whatever trevor

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