The Syndicate

Sloonei wrote: ↑Sun Mar 18, 2018 7:59 pm I'm counting on you, Quin.

Epignosis wrote: ↑Thu Mar 15, 2018 8:05 pm

Quin wrote: ↑Thu Mar 15, 2018 7:06 pm kills have switched. Were getting nks and they're getting lynches. I'll have to think on that because us even having a poll foes t make sense if that's the case.

nijuukyugou
Scotty
JackofHearts2005
No-one has died
S~V~S

We've been getting Night kills for ages.

speedchuck wrote: ↑Thu Mar 15, 2018 6:58 pm

Quin wrote: ↑Thu Mar 15, 2018 6:56 pm ok I just posted something real thoughtful but my browser crashed so please just pretend you were persuaded by me and vote ddl instead thank u

On a scale of 1-10 with ten being scumfirm, how persuasive are we talking?

S~V~S wrote: ↑Thu Mar 15, 2018 6:31 pm That was at Quin, I got caught in linki.

S~V~S wrote: ↑Thu Mar 15, 2018 4:51 pm

Quin wrote: ↑Thu Mar 15, 2018 7:37 am That ^ makes me feel good things about Epi as well.

I agree it makes me feel good things about him, too. But I still think he was tired and needed to get some rest.

I don't want to vote for DDL, who should I vote for, Quin?

Epignosis wrote: ↑Thu Mar 15, 2018 1:48 am

Epignosis wrote: ↑Mon Mar 12, 2018 4:46 pm That leaves me with DDL, nutella, and Dom, and I'm bored with voting for Dom.

[VOTE: DDL] aubergine

The thing is I'm now stuck between voting for nutella and Dom.

I could add S~V~S to this.

If her role was a civilian role, as she claims, then her ideal use of it would be baiting mafia to vote for her. That isn't the perspective she took. She was relieved that nobody voted for her:

S~V~S wrote: ↑Wed Mar 14, 2018 6:03 am So I was just relieved. I made it to Night 7 without even one vote. You have no idea how stressful this was. And how worried I was about how people would react to it. I was town before and I am town now.

On the other hand:

# 58
Alias: The Asymptomatic Carrier
Source: The Asian Flu Pandemic came to an end in 1958, after claiming over two million lives worldwide
Member Of: Evil Evens
Power Type: Passive Ability
Role Description: You are infected with a deadly strain of influenza but aren’t hurt by it. Every person you vote for will become infected. You will also infect every player who targets you with a day or night power. Anyone you infect will, in turn, infect anyone they vote for and any player using a night or day power on them. Once 2/3 of all players have become infected, one player will die each day. Two day phases after #58 dies, the virus will stop spreading but infected players will still be at risk of dying until the infection rate drops below 50%.

S~V~S had a real role from CC123. For that reason, it might make sense that she believed DDL to have the Mr. Freeze role, which lends credibility to her perspective (which, to be frank, I found out of whack, since we obviously don't all have roles from CC123 even though we have numbers).

I am inclined to find S~V~S's posts more genuine than I suspect her previous role.

And speaking of her role: A ten percent chance, despite how distraught S~V~S says she was about taking any votes, is not that great. I can believe the role is a civilian role. If it is a civilian role, it's only function is to potentially punish people for voting a civilian. If it is a mafia role, then it punishes civilians for doing what they are supposed to do: Vote out mafia.

Nah.

I'm going to keep S~V~S in the good pile for now.

Epignosis wrote: ↑Thu Mar 15, 2018 12:26 am

Quin wrote: ↑Thu Mar 15, 2018 12:24 am

Epignosis wrote: ↑Wed Mar 14, 2018 11:56 pm I don't think the first role's number is relevant to what team a bad guy is on.

Why?

Because there is evidence to suggest that it isn't. LC's first role was odd. His ultimate role was even.

If role numbers don't mean anything, then why do we have DDL's role number? Is it a red herring?

Epignosis wrote: ↑Wed Mar 14, 2018 11:56 pm I don't think the first role's number is relevant to what team a bad guy is on.

sprityo wrote: ↑Wed Mar 14, 2018 10:04 pm What if Long Con was the forger and a teammate made it so he flipped like that? the real forger is still alive, or LC was civilian and he got a Quin pulled on him

albeit though theres no Evil Evens role that is named Michaelangelo

in fact i dont think there was any role in cc123 with that name

S~V~S wrote: ↑Wed Mar 14, 2018 2:58 pm

speedchuck wrote: ↑Wed Mar 14, 2018 2:30 pm

S~V~S wrote: ↑Wed Mar 14, 2018 2:10 pm And I know Chuck "cleared" Quin, but I still have my doubts. Especially coming from Chuck, whose role does things he doesn't know what they are, lol. I still think no one can be cleared under the circumstances of this game.

I didn't clear him due to my role. I cleared him due to maths.

I know that; I just find clearing people when there are so many secrets for any reason to be especially ironic coming from you when what your role does is a secret even from you. And who it effects positively is also a mystery from you.

You of all people should know the maths are suspect when there are no absolutes in play. Because, you know, there aren't.

Golden wrote: ↑Tue Mar 24, 2015 5:56 pm Thanks Canuck.

I am likely to be slightly vague until I do a read back today, because yesterday was one of the most exciting days of my entire life - my beloved NZ cricket team made their first ever world cup final. As the Black Caps go, so my mental health follows. I am very happy but also pretty much unable to focus on anything.

DharmaHelper wrote: ↑Wed Mar 14, 2018 12:31 am

Golden wrote: ↑Wed Feb 03, 2016 11:11 pm I'm sure I'm just about the only one who is going to post in this thread.

But what about that demolishing the Black Caps made of the Aussies yesterday... so good. I've been waiting all 32 years of my life for a New Zealand cricket team this good.

Golden wrote: ↑Wed Mar 14, 2018 12:23 am

Nutella's Second Task

Golden personally attended what he considers to be the best one-day cricket innings of all time. What was it?

Golden wrote: ↑Mon Mar 12, 2018 6:04 pm

The mood was listless. People were without energy, feeling the impeding inevitability of a colonialbob lynch.

“Hey everyone” said colonialbob “why don’t we try to treat this like a normal day. We don’t have to assume I’ll die.”

“I agree” said DH, voting for cbob.

“I mean, who knows for sure, maybe a completely different outcome is possible” said colonialbob.

“This man makes a lot of sense to me” said sprityo, voting for cbob.

“Have you ever tried balancing on a balance beam that is tilted at an angle?” asked colonialbob “It just isn’t fair. I feel like something is tilted around here.”

“I have no idea what you’re getting at. But I agree we should treat it like a normal day” said dom, voting for cbob.

colonialbob sat down in the sand with a bottle of whisky in one hand and a glass in the other. “So this is the way life ends” said bob “Not with a bang, but with a…”

Nutella executed what the others had voted for. No matter what colonialbob did, he was going to die.

With his dying breath, bob got whispered a few final words… “the vision is a lie”

“I think he said ‘Paulo lies’” said S~V~S.

Day 6 has ended. colonialbob has been lynched. He was:

13: Charlie Pace (Lost Again: Season 3). At the beginning of the game, it will be announced that you are Charlie Pace and that you will die at the end of day 6. In reality, this is not true. You are Charlie Pace, but your actual role is to curse the person who casts the final vote to lynch you or who nightkills you. If that person is in their 1st role, their vote will count zero and they will be unable to win while they remain in that role. If that person is in their 2nd role, they will be strapped to a bomb vest and will have to complete three tasks by day end to defuse the vest.

It is now night 6. It will last for 24 hours, meaning you have 22 hours to get your PMs in

speedchuck wrote: ↑Mon Mar 12, 2018 10:49 am I ISO'd Quin, and I don't like his Long Con content. Lots of distancing, lots of scumreading LC without it gaining traction, lots of credit-taking and reminding people that he scumread LC before the slip.

Not to mention that Quin's activity has fallen off the past couple of days, both in post count and in content.

I'm not going to quote everything, but read the most recent page of his ISO.

speedchuck wrote: ↑Mon Mar 12, 2018 11:43 am The infamous D2 TIE!!!!

Here we go:

Here are a couple of before and after polls, placing LC's vote as being worth 2 (-2)
The minus 2 assumes that Quin is town. If Quin is scum, LC's vote was worth 2. If Quin is town, his vote was worth 0. Thus, 2 (with an optional -2 addition).

What actually happened:

DDL (-2 votes) - cbob, speedchuck, Quin, Epi, Nutella, LC = 5 or 3
Speedchuck - DH, Dom, SVS, DDL = 4

changed to

DDL (-2 votes) - cbob, speedchuck, Quin, Epi, Nutella = 3
Speedchuck - DH, Dom, SVS, DDL, LC = 6 or 4

What LC saw if he isn't scum with DDL:

DDL - cbob, speedchuck, Quin, Epi, Nutella, LC = 7 or 5
Speedchuck - DH, Dom, SVS, DDL = 4

changed to

DDL (-2 votes) - cbob, speedchuck, Quin, Epi, Nutella = 5
Speedchuck - DH, Dom, SVS, DDL, LC = 6 or 4

I'm assuming DDL did not put -2 points on me, as scum or town.

. . .

Been staring at these polls for ten minutes. Some observations:

1. If Quin was scum with LC, and his vote was worth 2, LC changed the tide of the lynch. LC did so in a dangerous way, one that revealed that vote manipulations were taking place. He was also the most suspect vote in this case. That's a blow to LC/Quin.

2. If DDL was scum with LC, and Quin was town, then LC would have known what was most likely happening. He also would have seen that the guy with 4 votes (me) getting lynched over the guy with 6 votes (DDL) would have been very incriminating. So he might have vote hopped to avoid suspicion. His vote was probably worth zero anyway, and he might as well make the result look more legitimate. Also, the more he votes for townies, the more -1s he has to his vote. This would help explain how DDL avoided lynching the following day as well. LC is trying to make his vote into a train nullifier.

3. If neither are scum with LC, then LC's vote is most likely worth zero in his eyes. He may have switched his vote at the end to find out, just in case there are other scumteams. That's the only reason I can think of.


It's a difficult puzzle, but I'd say of these three, result 2 is most likely, followed by result 3. Much as I was just suspecting Quin, I don't think LC would have tried to change the tide of the lynch for no reason. LC/Quin is disproven in my book.

-----------------------------------------------------------------------

Also, the Nutella lynch on the following day:
DDL (-2 votes) - Epi, cbob, speedchuck, nutella, DH, LC = 4
nutella - Dom, DDL, SVS = 3

If Quin and I are both town, LC's vote was worth -1, two less than normal. If Quin is scum, it's worth 1. Soooo Quin is basically townfirmed. I don't know why we argued with this earlier. Quin and speechuck1 are both townfirms.

------------------------------------------------------------------------

Talk to me about all of this please.

Also [VOTE: DDL] aubergine

linkis: Yeah DDL is totes bad guys

S~V~S wrote: ↑Mon Mar 12, 2018 9:16 am

Quin wrote: ↑Mon Mar 12, 2018 6:04 am what's up is that i wanna know why we're all looking for members of the second mafia team that i don't believe exists

Wrote a giant post
When I could talk days ago
About this very thing

You mainly seem to
Show up to tell people their
thoughts, points, are pointless

colonialbob wrote: ↑Sun Mar 11, 2018 12:34 am I think we should treat this as a normal day.

S~V~S wrote: ↑Sat Mar 10, 2018 7:03 am

Quin wrote: ↑Sat Mar 10, 2018 12:57 am

Dom wrote: ↑Sat Mar 10, 2018 12:52 am

Long Con wrote: ↑Fri Mar 09, 2018 6:36 pm Cerberus Tribe is going to crush you guys if you don't let them have some lynches. Hell, they could have baddies caught as hell over there, trying to lynch, but Pikachu is just too greedy.

.... anyone catch this?

He implied the other tribe hasn't lynched anyone yet because of how we're voitng. I'm taking it with a grain of salt....

Yeah, I don't really buy into it. There's no real way for us to not lynch someone once a vote's been put down. I'm not completely sold on the idea that there's two sets of lynches and night kills happening though.

Yeah, I think that was possiblyjust freak out stuff, but what would be the point of it, though? It isn't that horrible. And If not, well, then they will be all hot and heavy to lynch each other, so we have time to get our feet under us. I had presumed those who said we were getting their results and vice versa. If that was true, I was figuring they would know some of our first roles, like we know theirs. So they might be hot and heavy to lynch US.

But with two lives, having two sets of NKs and lynches DOES make the most sense, since we have to burn off some of these lives.

Our only known baddie had a role that was originally civ the first time, and originally bad the second time. Earlier I had wondered if they ever lynched Scotty based on his reveal, but then realized they might not know his reveal. Unless there really has been one set of NKs and one set of lynches. I think the original first role is not that indicative of affiliation, but we'll see.

DharmaHelper wrote: ↑Fri Mar 09, 2018 9:31 pm

Dragon D. Luffy wrote: ↑Fri Mar 09, 2018 7:26 pm

Quin wrote: ↑Fri Mar 09, 2018 7:25 pm I got the feeling that DDL opposed the LC wagon for the sake of opposing it. I might have to re-read, but I dislike it based on that impression.

In my defense I was 95% sure it was impossible to stop the wagon at that point.

And I still want to lynch DH.

Why fam I lynched Long Con

What are your thoughts on Chuck?

I don't know Chucks game well enough to know whether he is a defender in general, like is it normal for him as a civ to go all out to save someone he thinks isn't bad? What about defending baddie teammates? With LC's power had he gotten one (or two?) more people to vote for Dom, he might have been saved. And Chuck did try very very hard. I am sure the Evens jiggered Doms flip to make sure he flipped bad. That role was probably why LC & Team decided to throw all of their eggs into the Dom basket, and rather than defending, throw all of their attention to Dom. Which doesn't say much to me about Chuck and his being "townfirmed", since he beat the "Dom is bad" drum harder than LC.

I was on a team once in a game on LP, maybe Jurassic Park? Where Tranq and I used our one save (or switch? that would make more sense but it was a long time ago, I don't recall precisely) to save someone we knew was on the other bad team, thus framing them. So anything could have happened to lynch Nutella rather than DDL the other day that did not involve townfirming anyone. I am not sure I buy that, especially after that last lynch.

I had hoped to save some stuff from this thread last night, but I had company. I will save some stuff today, like roles of the NKed in case they did not get that info, some posts on peoples reads, memory reminders, posts from people I feel squidgy about. I don't want to forget what happened here when we presumably merge.

Dom wrote: ↑Sat Mar 10, 2018 12:52 am

Long Con wrote: ↑Fri Mar 09, 2018 6:36 pm Cerberus Tribe is going to crush you guys if you don't let them have some lynches. Hell, they could have baddies caught as hell over there, trying to lynch, but Pikachu is just too greedy.

.... anyone catch this?

He implied the other tribe hasn't lynched anyone yet because of how we're voitng. I'm taking it with a grain of salt....

colonialbob wrote: ↑Fri Mar 09, 2018 11:47 pm

Quin wrote: ↑Fri Mar 09, 2018 11:15 pm If Long Con is facing a near inevitable lynch on account of a scum slip, he doesn't choose to go hard against his teammate by pointing out another scum slip.

Probability of LC/Dom w/w: Low.

Probability of lc/dom on separate teams?

speedchuck wrote: ↑Fri Mar 09, 2018 7:36 pm Alrighty then. So much for Epi going cold turkey on wine.

I suggest we lynch cbob next.

Dragon D. Luffy wrote: ↑Fri Mar 09, 2018 7:26 pm

Quin wrote: ↑Fri Mar 09, 2018 7:25 pm I got the feeling that DDL opposed the LC wagon for the sake of opposing it. I might have to re-read, but I dislike it based on that impression.

In my defense I was 95% sure it was impossible to stop the wagon at that point.

And I still want to lynch DH.