The Syndicate

Marge Simpson

Hmm, I read all of Donna's posts and I have to say, there isn't much there that's helpful.

Chris was mostly middle of the pack. She voted for Chris, but late. Regarding JR, all Donna ever says is that his posts are long and wordy and hard to read.

There is not much evidence, to me, that Donna is good. Except that JR vote. If Donna was bad, why not vote Bobby and hope Andy continues down the same road that he has already said he will? That could have been game over right then. Instead, she is happy to go with JR, even though it more or less guaranteed his lynch (since bobby and I were both leaning that way already).

Also, why keep me alive instead of Bobby? If you are Donna, it might be because I've already expressed my suspicion of Andy, so it's a good bet I'll vote for Andy. The wifom is a challenge here.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

OK, then I read Andy's posts again. Andy didn't vote for Chris, his suspicion of Chris always gave him an out.

He basically didn't mention JR until yesterday, and then it was agreeing with him about Bobby, expressly seeing JR as good, and then inexplicably voting JR to end the day when Bobby said he wanted more time to look for teammate connections (and then Bobby was killed on top of this).

It's hard to see how you go from the following post to a day-ending vote against JR:

Andy Dwyer wrote:Bobby/JR
If Jerry or Donna wasn't bad, I was looking at Bobby, but I see Jean Ralphio as consistent and genuine. Unlikely.

Bobby/Donna
I could see this, but my evidence against Donna is in the garbage. I really thought she saved Jerry on Day 4.

Bobby/Tom
New Tom seems ok, I guess. Old Tom didn't exist. IT's hard to say, but I guess I'd advocate for a Bobby Newport lynch right now.

JR/Donna
I don't see this. I don't think Jean Ralphio is bad.

JR/Tom
Again, I don't see this happening because Jean Ralphio, in my eyes, is not bad.

Donna/Tom
Maaaaaaybe. What a pair to be bad, too. But I don't have anything solid against either one.

I guess Bobby's the way to go for me. I have no more evidence against Donna, JR reads civvie to me...

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Paranoia

I could see this going either way. And I feel somewhat like the game is resting on my shoulders.

I'm just going to vote first. I recognise that if I'm wrong, this is costing the town the game. So I'm sorry if that is the case.

I'm voting for Dom. I mean Andy.

Congrats Donna - I now have basically anointed you to win either way! I just hope you are good. Bobby deserves this win.

Marge Simpson

I see you lurking, Donna. What are you thinking?

Marge Simpson

Andy made sure the day ended before Bobby/Epi had a chance to look at teammate interactions. I don't think that was an accident. He also voted JR instead of Bobby, despite having said he thought Bobby was bad before then. A very strange reversal.

If Andy was civ and Donna was bad, I don't think Donna would have started the run on JR either. She could have waited until Andy was willing to talk a bit more and see which way he was leaning.

Heavily leaning towards Andy being the last baddie.

But, I'm willing to hear this out first.

Marge Simpson

I was hoping to hear more from people, but don't blame you for voting now Donna.

I'm going to follow you on to JR. I think that baddies are probably JR/Andy, and so if JR comes back bad and I go down overnight, I would recommend an Andy vote tomorrow (after more careful consideration, of course).

But in any event, I feel like I am deciding this game after only just getting here, because I'm feeling pretty sure that it is either JR/Andy or Bobby/Donna. If it's any combination that isn't those, then well done at the distancing, guys.

Voting JR, lets hope we have this right.

Marge Simpson

Hey JR - someone goes out of their way to carefully and fully analyse every single player...

And all you can say is 'I struck a nerve' and vote them immediately. What, you don't even want to address the case? You don't want to talk about any of their other potential conclusions? You just want to stick with what you've got?

You were so so so unsure. It was so close between Andy and Bobby. And the thing that tipped it over the edge was... Bobby actually doing proper work? While Andy vanishes?

Jean-Ralphio wrote:If I'm wrong, forgive me Pawnee because I'm sure 2 mafiosos will swoop in shortly to pile on their votes.

OK, but don't come back with the false dilemma tomorrow that 'they didn't swoop on, therefore I'm right'. If you are bad, then there are not two mafioso left to swoop on.

In fact, if they don't swoop on, I'll be sure you are bad. Because I'm pretty certain Bobby is not. That was a really bad vote you just made.

Marge Simpson

I've come to the same perspective. I feel good about a JR vote - I will at least feel like I've given this my best attempt.

Re JR being my 'third top civ read'. It was my first impressions. He comes across as very reasonable and well-reasoned. I didn't feel anything bad the first time (unlike the three that I had below him) but I didn't feel anything actively good either (like the two above him). I would have to look back to remember any specifics, but I did not feel the same reading back further.

The yellow and orange statements, I think a little sarcasm didn't play there. - Andy said 'surely you must understand how frustrating this is'. And I said 'absolutely'. Then the two following statements about 'especially' was me trying to point out that it would be frustrating to any role (civ or bad) having a new voice join and suddenly they are under heat. My point was - the fact he found me frustrating didn't make him good.

Which of my views can't you get on board with? I have to admit, I've still only been in the game a little over 24 hours... my views are still crystallizing a little.

Marge Simpson

I really like your analysis, Bob. It feels agendaless to me.

I now feel we really are in one of two worlds

Andy/JR. or
JR/Donna

On my own analysis, Andy/JR was my starting point. After they both started by coming out against Bobby together, I had the chills.

Particularly since, on my own analysis, Bobby looks the most town (and continues to now).

I agree with your analysis of JR, and although I wasn't there at the time, I think your own self-analysis of the Chris day is fair. JR's version felt way more slanted and dismissive, to me. As I noted, you really were pivotal in the Chris vote.

JR sits in both my possible teams, so I could go that way for a vote.

The only other team I really see as possible is Bobby/Donna. It's possible, but... Bobby just looks so town to me.

One other possible world is JR/Donna

Marge Simpson

At this point I think the baddie team is one of the following

Andy/JR
Bobby/Donna
JR/Donna
Andy/Donna

I guess that only rules out Andy/Bobby and JR/Bobby.

But, I could see a world in which its either Andy/JR or Bobby/Donna, and I'm stuck in the middle with the vote that's going to decide who wins and loses. And that sucks given I just subbed in.

For me it is too close to call. I'm not sure what the right thing is to do. I guess it is to wait until Bobby and Donna contribute and see what they have to say.

For me the biggest knock on Bobby was him going after Ben. I could see Ben was town from about four posts. But then, Bobby already had his target for the next day and was theorising and Andy/Ben team, so would Ben have been the best kill choice for him?

Another interesting thing is... why not kill me when I'm the biggest variable. People were set towards a particular path and I came in and disrupted it, but then survived. Perhaps they were hoping I'd go out swinging after Andy today, so that might be a good look for Andy. Andy would no doubt have preferred Ben to stay around.

Marge Simpson

Jean-Ralphio wrote:I can see your point, Tommy "B", but it's like you are so D1 and the rest of us are D6...you're Destiny's Child and we're Beyonce...you're Bruce Jenner and we're Caitlyn...basically what I'm hittin' on is that there's not enough on you due to the sub-in to be able to get an alliance read on you, but truthfulnessly that's not to say I want to discount your opinion...I'm just not sure how much weight I wanna lend to it given the importance of today's vote...it's like the 7th season of Idol when the finale came down to the 2 Davids!

So you said that during the Chris lynch, Bobby went after Chris the most out of us remaining players, which I guess was MOSTLY true, but in the context of things it was ONE post out of 5 he made that day:

Post #1 plz vote 4 me
Post #2 mafia just give up I wanna win
Post #3 names Leslie and Chris mafia, split 50/50 but always attacks Leslie first
Post #4 asks for a town read
Post #5 last post of day and it again begins asking for peeps to vote for him but let Chris do the job (???)

So everything else you posted above came AFTER the results of Chris' lynching yet he claims he was pivotal in that day...I just don't see how 1 lackluster post out of 5 with only a minor/singular reason or argument behind it can be seen as even influential much less PIVOTAL. Again, you may be TECHNICALLY correct in that he "went after" Chris most, but that's like saying he was a dwarf among midgets!

You say it was always Leslie first, but given a choice between tying Leslie and Chris 2-2 (or just not voting yet), he voted Chris and put him up 3-1.

To me, that's the definition of pivotal. He was literally the pivot around which the lynch was decided.

Also, knowing that I'm good helps, but put yourself in my shoes for a minute... two of the four of you are bad. If it isn't Andy, that means Chris would have been bussed by BOTH of his teammates. But Leslie had all of the heat and was not too hard of a lynch. If Bobby had votes Leslie right then, with a teammate (you or Donna) to spare, and Leslie easily taking the most heat in the thread, why not just vote Leslie if he was always after Leslie first?

Also, your case talks about why you disagree with my Bobby analysis, but what about the Andy analysis?

Marge Simpson

I want to hear everyone's views (Bobby and Donna, you better have time to participate!), but at this point I am once again leaning towards Andy as the best bet.

Marge Simpson

OK, so I isoed everyone. I'll do it again and read the thread again before the day is over. But I disagree that the best case is Bobby.

Of all four of you, Bobby is the one who MOST went after Chris.

Here's Bobby on Chris:

Spoiler: show

Bobby Newport wrote:And when I say the mafia should quit, I mean Leslie and Chris.

Leslie Knope wrote:I think we need to seriously debate the merits of not lynching anyone today. If we kill someone now and they turn out to be good, then those monsters who killed Lil Sebastian will kill again and we'll be down two good guys. Yes, there's a chance we can get one of the people responsible, but it's only a 1/5 possibility.

Chris Traeger wrote:Silly me, I almost forgot about Bill! He seems to be very preoccupied with you. Which could very much be an attempt to avoid discussion that might stray onto himself or a fellow evil teammate, if it is intentional. It would be nice to hear what he thinks of people other than the fresh breath of air that is April Ludgate. Otherwise I am inclined to put him on a list of suspects. Did that answer your question?
These are the two most suspicious things in the world. If I could, I'd make an attack ad saying so. A really good powerful ad that talks about why a Leslie who wants to help the people she loves and the greatest city in the world (whatever that means) would entertain the thought of throwing out the only tool we have to eliminate the competition. I'd make a really awesome ad that talks about how Chris voted for somebody he almost forgot about, somebody he painted with a hollow claim of "could very much be an attempt." Like, what does that even mean? I mean, I could very much be attempting to run for office to get my dad off my back, and you'd be right, but you get my point.

Bobby Newport wrote:
Leslie Knope wrote:RIP Ann, you sweet, beautiful, naive, exotic princess.

I still think that Chris was trying to save Jerry and that they were both trying to distance themselves from each other. We got one, so I'm voting for the other this time around. Hopefully we knock out two of these bastards in a row.

I won't have access to a computer for most of tomorrow, but I should be on one all day Friday to keep up on new developments. For now, I'm parking my vote in Jerry's spot.
I like when things are called. I like when elections are called.* I like when I called Chris bad. I like that I called you his partner.

*In my favor of course.

Bobby Newport wrote:
Donna Meagle wrote:Leslie brings up a reasonable point that the Chris and Jerry votes could be seen as distancing. Why do you think that is not the case and that Leslie and Chris are partners?
A reasonable point that...could be seen as distancing. You know, I make reasonable points all the time, and people are always distancing from me, so hello!

Chris got lynched trying to save Leslie. And Leslie voted for self-preservation. Open and shut case. If Leslie isn't bad, then Donna is for saying things I don't like.

Bobby Newport wrote:Like, really? Come on man! I ran a clean campaign and was pivotal in eliminating Chris. I'm really sorry about Leslie, but then again I'm kinda not sorry because she was the only things standing in between me and that one office (can't remember what exactly it's called at the moment). Cut me some slack!

So, Bobby was wrong about Leslie, but pretty adamant about Chris. Looking at the votes on the day Chris was lynched - Bobby was the only one out of all five of us who votes for Chris at an important time.

Chris Traeger
6
Ron Swanson (4), Leslie Knope (5), Bobby Newport (7), Jerry Gergich (8), Donna Meagle (10), Jean-Ralphio (15)

Jerry Gergich
2
Ben Wyatt (9), Chris Traeger (14)

Leslie Knope
1
Andy Dwyer (2)

In addition, Andy and JR both came to the conclusion 'Bobby was bad' very quickly, so I'd say Andy/Bobby and JR/Bobby teams are much more unlikely at this point. That means the only team that would be likely for Bobby is Bobby/Donna.

Compare this to Andy talking about Chris, I think Andy looks worst when talking about Chris (I think this might account for my 'gut feeling yesterday')

Spoiler: show

This post comes out of the blue - Andy has virtually talked ONLY about Leslie up until this point, but he brings up Chris just to say he has no opinion:

Andy Dwyer wrote:ok
i am scared of that darthart guy watching us. watch out for that
i think leslie might be an imposter
and i'm not sure how i feel about chris yet. Sometimes he talks the coolests sentences though

And then this post, on the day gets Chris lynched, puts Chris on his suspicion list nominally, but says 'he wants to hear more'

Andy Dwyer wrote:
Ron Swanson wrote:Goodbye, April. You will be avenged. I will personally see to it.

I believe the mafia team in this game is a team doing the right moves. Scanned for the cop and found him, and now removed an all-but-confirmed civilian. This requires at least one functioning brain in the BTSC. If you still want to dispute that the mafia containts performant players, offer an adequate profile and point at someone.

As for me, this brings me to Chris, for instance.

To say that you suspect Jerry, but vote Jamm, while Jerry was a serious contender, is a mighty suspicious move. The only way you could even consider absolving such a move would be if Chris would have had no f***ing clue what the tally situation is.

But Chris did not say that.

Chris Traeger wrote:When last I looked at the votes, Jerry was leading by a decent margin
So either Jerry was still in the lead, by one vote, and Chris, instead of voting Jerry who he still suspected, voted Jamm.
Either Jerry was tied with Leslie and Chris, instead of voting Jerry who he still suspected (over Leslie, for which he had stated nothing relevant whatsoever during the game), voted Jamm.

This either looks like a vote meant not to doom Jerry for good, or to offer Leslie a lifeline, given that she was stuck, while in a tie herself, on Jerry.

Chris is the common denominator in this, anyway.

i agree !
Chris should vote for he suspects most, not who is going to be lymched. unless he was gonna die
btu that wasn't an issue yesterday.

ron you're talking smart. i like it. almost as smart as FBI AGEN T BERT MACKLIN!!!

seriously though
Leslie
chris (but i'd like to hear mor3 from him!)
Gary

ron i talked about gary a little more yesterday
is there somethin gyou'd like to hera about from me in partifuarl?

His vote for Leslie came in before the Chris votes so that might not be so terrible.

Donna and JR's votes for Chris came in too late to matter and their Chris content falls squarely in the middle. Not enough to say they really hunted Chris, but nothing that suggests they were being protective either (to me).

Marge Simpson

Well, I suggest the first thing we do is not jump to any conclusions.

We should analyse possible teams - there are 10. Each civilian knows that four are wrong (the four that include them) so they should take a good look at the other six and post their feelings, in my opinion.

Andy/Bobby
Andy/JR
Andy/Donna
Andy/Tom
Bobby/JR
Bobby/Donna
Bobby/Tom
JR/Donna
JR/Tom
Donna/Tom

Don't forget, if even a single civilian votes wrong, we lose, as the baddies will pile on. And votes aren't changeable. We gotta be cautious.

Marge Simpson

'explain that', 'quantify that'. What are you, some kind of accountant? I don't need red tape and regulations.

I'm going on gut. You're reacting to me all wrong. Stop treating me like I've been in the game from the start. I don't know who voted for who when, and I don't give a crap. Give me old fashioned scum hunting. You smell bad.

linki - Andy, oh I read the thread. Every post. I just didn't live the context. I don't have to 'substantiate' why you are bad. I've seen what it looks like when vocal people take over the thread and lead it. You remind me of MP and Golden, always jumping on each others reads, that doesn't mean you are both good and it doesn't mean you are both right.

"I can think of at least two other reasons why MP would replace you" - well, I happen to have the advantage of knowing the 'because I am bad' one isn't correct. What's your second reason?

As long as Ben understands that if he hits you at lylo, he shouldn't trust you, then my job here is done. I just want to get people to reconsider their reads. That's what I'm here to do.

Oh, the second reason is you can't swing the lynches on your own?

Of course you can. You have bobby and JR and both are participating. Both were voting Jerry before I subbed in too.

Marge Simpson

Voting Andy. That's what my gut is telling me to do.

No slight on Ben's case on Jerry, though, which I believe it both genuine and very good.

Marge Simpson

I'm the one with tunnel vision? I bring a new perspective and all you want to do is shut it down and call me confused.

I think not. I'm just trying to breathe some life into a game that - I cannot state this enough - I would not have been asked to be in if you had already had it solved. MP foresaw this game going to lylo, and knew the civs needed me to have any chance of winning, or he would not have asked me.

I don't know if Andy is bad or you are good. All I know is the two of you both have tunnel vision, and you are leading the thread to lylo. You should open your eyes to the possibility you are wrong.

Forget 'Donna making a case'. Clearly she isn't going to. Lean on JR. Lean on me. People who you might see signs of life in.

If Jerry is bad, I could be convinced that any of Andy, you or Bobby were the other, but I'm certain it isn't Donna. If Jerry is good, we are in big trouble, but in that case maybe Donna is a decent bet.

You seem very unwilling to allow any threat to Andy's game or to be open to the idea he could be bad. Why?

For me, the smart vote is Andy.

Marge Simpson

Andy Dwyer wrote:Reminder:

Donna voted Leslie yesterday after civ reading her all game. This saved Jerry. Today she only voted him after it didn't matter who she voted for.

And apparently you went after Leslie all game and then pulled out when it was probably too late. A rather good way to frame someone else if Jerry is your teammate, no?

Andy Dwyer wrote:Surely you must understand how frustrating it is to me that you barge in here saying that I am bad, you're uninterested in past events, and suddenly you think me showing you evidence that Donna is likely Jerry's teammate(the fact that she saved his ass when it counted) is evidence that I am bad. This is all ass backwards.

Absolutely. Especially if you felt you were on track to a baddie victory.

Well, not especially. You'd be frustrated no matter what. Why should that make me see you as civilian?

Andy Dwyer wrote:How am I taking advantage of Ben? If anything, Ben is buddying me-- I just don't see Ben as bad. And haven't pretty much ever.

I disagree. Ben seems very townie to me. You... seem flighty and full of agenda. Actually, textbook me as baddie. You smell wrong.

It's just an impression for now. We'll see what happens with Jerry first, then I'll re-evaluate.

Marge Simpson

Ps, Ben - me subbing in is pointless if everyone else is saying 'I've already got the game solved, I have no flexibility to even reconsider'.

Trust me, I didn't get asked to sub in because you had the game solved. I got asked to sub in because this game is looking like going to lylo to the host. He wouldn't have asked otherwise.

Marge Simpson

Andy Dwyer wrote:Explain Day 4 with the context that you think I am bad and taht Donna is not.

I flipped on Leslie to lynch Jerry (who you think is bad)
Donna flipped on Leslie to save Jerry.

I don't know who is bad. This kind of post is why I think you are bad. Why would you expect someone who just subbed in to 'explain day 4'. I wasn't there and obviously can't 'explain it', but I imagine it would be great for you if you could lynch your teammate Jerry and then have an ironclad reason to mislynch someone right after.

@Ben - I don't watch P&R so forget roleplaying. I'm calling it how I see it. I think Andy is buddying you. "I trust Andy because we seem to have pretty similar reads on people", "I just feel like Andy has been on the level with me" - I don't feel so. I read your interactions and I feel like Andy is taking advantage of you.

But, in the end, the case on Jerry is very strong, so I'll vote there first and then see what happens. It will give me more time to get my head in the game.

Marge Simpson

Actually, looking back a bit around the Chris Traeger vote, I get the Jerry thing.

But I think it doesn't make Andy look any better.

Andy/Jerry could be possible.

Marge Simpson

I trust Ben, so far. Ben looks best to me. Bobby looks good too. You guys may be at odds, but you both talk like civs. I think you should work together. Jean-Ralphio would be my third pick for a civ, I really like the specticism he is bringing to the Ben/Andy dynamic.

I don't trust Andy. Ben, why do you trust Andy? Bobby, do you trust Andy?

I do not think you have this game solved. I would not have been asked to sub in if you already know who the last two baddies are and you are about to lynch them.

I would say the baddies are two of Jerry, Andy, Donna. But not both of Jerry and Donna. That means Andy. And since Andy is pushing Jerry, Donna. I think Andy and Donna might be the baddies.

I don't understand why Jerry. Is there any reason I'm not aware of to rule some of these people out?

So far, based on what I've seen, I think Andy or Donna would be the right vote.

Of course, I could be really fucking this up and it is Jerry. But, I've been asked to sub in for a reason. Time to challenge you guys. Why isn't it Andy?

Marge Simpson

Hey peeps.

I'm subbing in. No chance I'll read the game, so who wants to make the most convincing case for who I should vote for? I want the town to win, so I'm relying on you guys to link me to some good cases!

I can't believe anyone lynched Leslie Knope. LESLIE KNOPE! That right there is where you will find baddies, I bet. Who would lynch her.

Everyone I know from P&R is dead.

Marge Simpson

I'm about half caught up on what I should and am totes voting Ben.

His style is garbage and he probably is taking it out on others, so lets get him outa here.

Marge Simpson

Ok, so I'm not saying I had more important things than finding out who is murdering people, but I had something to take care of.

I call it "Dunk-a-Gobbler." Imagine all the fun of a dunking booth, but instead of water you use hot oil, and instead of a person you use a turkey. Just perfect for any thanksgiving occasion.

The Syndicate

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