The Syndicate

Guillotine wrote: ↑Wed Feb 09, 2022 5:56 pm Also not a fan of your distancing accusations but im gonna assume they are reaction tests to which i answer the best way i can by doing this:

Looked like distancing to me, but you're town, so it's not.

But that means DDL and Guillo weren't distancing. Which is sad.

Guillotine wrote: ↑Wed Feb 09, 2022 5:50 pm

Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Wed Feb 09, 2022 4:54 pm DDL and Guillo trying to distance, and it's very cute.

@Guillotine What role did you think Nanook had when you started the game? You seemed confused about the mechanics, though I don't understand how.

I also want to tunnel Creature. I just want to. I had the idea that he didn't care as much about the mech stuff and really wanting to find the best plan for town, which I perceived HK and NAA to be doing at the very beginning of the game. When I read it again, meh, might've imagined that. But I still find his wording SUSPICIOUS. This might be dumb, but if he's mafia, I'm a genius.

These might be bad takes, but good thing is that we can always blame Nook if things goes to shits.

I read zero about the set up when i signed up for it. Zero when it begun.
I got the pm and i thought i randed doctor (and cursed the rand god for it) and then i proceeded to hard claim it as i usually hard claim random roles all the time, then others began posting and townreading me based on a dumbtell and there is when i realized that maybe i should read the OP. There is when i realized that i fucked up by signing up for a game that is not really mafia, that i'm being forced to let Nanook decide for me who is the chop and that on top of that, I have to protect him or we auto lose. And then all of that math talk… like, im here to play mafia… but im not and i still dont know what im supposed to do at night so im just gonna protect Nanook until i die cause that is simple enough
¯\\_(ツ)\_/¯

I signed up for this game cause of you and hk to be honest, i never miss a chance to play with both of you even though i cant read you both for shit lol. But i will never get better at reading you if i dont play with you often.

Ok, I straight up believe this.

You can be town.

We decided to rand our protects. Use a number generator from 1-100, I you roll 66 or over, you protect Nanook.

Or just do it anyway, cause you'll probably die before you can use all your saves.

@Creature Talk to me about why you're mafia and I'm not.

But also, HK, you would 100 % buddy me as mafia here, cause you know I love that shit lol.

I like Juliets so far tbh. Her sass to Creature was good. Not really getting a ton of wow that's town reads otherwise tbh. Be more town, please. Like me.

hollowkatt wrote: ↑Wed Feb 09, 2022 5:02 pm

Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Wed Feb 09, 2022 4:55 pm

hollowkatt wrote: ↑Wed Feb 09, 2022 4:55 pmYour posts are round like a panda

Doesn't make sense to me. But no read on me D1 makes sense to me ever.

I'll try to articulate then.
You have a tendency D1 to be fluffy and go with the flow regardless of what you rand, but more so when you're not town. Not because you're bad at trying to fit in and get things going as a wolf, you're a scary wolf, but because it's an easy way for you to blend with the crowd and scrape a few town reads.

When you're town you're more focused on what's going on because I feel it's important to you. Your early posts here were more focused than fluffy and there is a tone in them that seems pure to me. You have an early post talking about several different people that doesn't feel faked, and your next post, where you discuss mech, you conclude with a reminder that we need to find the trash pandas when most people were content to let their mech posts stand as is. You're reminding us that there's a team of baddies that we do need to find.

If you're a trash panda here there's no reason you need to add that last little coda to your post, you can just talk about mech like most everyone else was doing.

I dunno, that's a long winded way of saying "I think you're town because reading your posts makes me feel good about you" as opposed to "I think you're a trash panda because reading your posts makes me concerned about you"

HOpe that helps

Yeah it's not a bad read.

I'm also not in a great mood today, so maybe that's some of what you are seeing.

But your reasons is pretty valid tbh.

NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Wed Feb 09, 2022 5:01 pm

Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Wed Feb 09, 2022 4:57 pm @NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME It probably behooves us to let people who are generally read well/decent by others get more in the game. Maybe.

I didn't mean don't shoot at the 24 hour point. I don't mind that. But if it was me, I probably wouldn't shoot in the pool I think I could read well over time, unless I already had a formed read on them. THAT'S JUST ME THO. Obviously, you're going to do what you want. But I will still have opinions. And judge you. =p

2 mischops only feels unfair tbh. I think I felt the same last game lol.

@NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME It probably behooves us to let people who are generally read well/decent by others get more in the game. Maybe.

hollowkatt wrote: ↑Wed Feb 09, 2022 4:55 pmYour posts are round like a panda

Doesn't make sense to me. But no read on me D1 makes sense to me ever.

I'll do the dice roll thing as well. I'll do it every day though, depending on numbers. And I won't claim protects, of course.

Also, yes. Other saves should be used extremely conservatively.

DDL and Guillo trying to distance, and it's very cute.

@Guillotine What role did you think Nanook had when you started the game? You seemed confused about the mechanics, though I don't understand how.

I also want to tunnel Creature. I just want to. I had the idea that he didn't care as much about the mech stuff and really wanting to find the best plan for town, which I perceived HK and NAA to be doing at the very beginning of the game. When I read it again, meh, might've imagined that. But I still find his wording SUSPICIOUS. This might be dumb, but if he's mafia, I'm a genius.

These might be bad takes, but good thing is that we can always blame Nook if things goes to shits.

Creature wrote: ↑Wed Feb 09, 2022 10:01 am

sig wrote: ↑Wed Feb 09, 2022 9:58 am

Creature wrote: ↑Tue Feb 08, 2022 10:24 pm Alternatively we can nominate one player (on odd nights) or two players (on even nights) to protect NANOOK and everybody else rands their shots incase the nominated players happen to be wolves.

I like this plan maybe increase it by 1 just in case someone misses night action or mafia have some hidden block?

Trash pandas don't have a block assuming the setup is open.

Worst risk is we nominate a trash panda to protect NANOOK, in which case we'll rely on our randing.

Wording that pings me. It just feels wrong. Might be wrong, but I want to be right.

Guillotine wrote: ↑Wed Feb 09, 2022 10:17 am

Dragon D. Luffy wrote: ↑Wed Feb 09, 2022 6:18 am

Guillotine wrote: ↑Tue Feb 08, 2022 9:10 pm Im telling you right now, i aint attempting to save anyone in this game but myself, i believes in flips over saves.

Are people gonna have to spend another 2 rl weeks begging you to read the rules post

Do I know you?

Marmot wrote: ↑Wed Feb 09, 2022 10:17 am

Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Wed Feb 09, 2022 5:07 am I don’t remember what we did mech wise last time, but I think it worked-ish. Except Nut shot the wrong people.

I think maybe we coordinated enough to have the shooter covered, and then could rogue protect likely other targets of it felt necessary.

We let you win last time I believe

No. But we would have if I had the gun.

Guillotine wrote: ↑Wed Feb 09, 2022 10:24 am

Dragon D. Luffy wrote: ↑Wed Feb 09, 2022 6:37 am Falcon told me last game he never lies about his role claims.

And?

Distance part II

Creature wrote: ↑Wed Feb 09, 2022 12:59 pm I'm probably looking at Dragon + Dyslexicon + one of the mech talkers (NAA/HK/Guillo/maybe Urist).

Why me?

hollowkatt wrote: ↑Wed Feb 09, 2022 2:33 pm

Creature wrote: ↑Wed Feb 09, 2022 12:59 pm I'm probably looking at Dragon + Dyslexicon + one of the mech talkers (NAA/HK/Guillo/maybe Urist).

I don't remember why I felt good about dizzy but I did. People seem to want to pile on dragon and meh I'm not sure I care about dragon.

Why me to this too tbh lol

Guillotine wrote: ↑Wed Feb 09, 2022 10:21 am

Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Wed Feb 09, 2022 6:33 am
Why are you so adamant about not cooperating and doing what you want, when you don't seem to understand the basics of the setup in the first place?

Because im better at playing mafia than playing math, the moment i saw this becoming a math game i got bored.

Im still bored.

So who’s scum?

Dragon D. Luffy wrote: ↑Wed Feb 09, 2022 8:56 am

fingersplints wrote: ↑Wed Feb 09, 2022 8:16 am

Dragon D. Luffy wrote: ↑Wed Feb 09, 2022 6:58 am

Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Wed Feb 09, 2022 6:42 am

Dragon D. Luffy wrote: ↑Wed Feb 09, 2022 6:37 am Falcon told me last game he never lies about his role claims.

Falcon says he's town when he's mafia as well.

I don't know or care about the role claims.

I don't really think he's suspicious, but he doesn't have a "I'm town" truth tell.

I don't care if you don't care.

This game has no vanilla town roles. Falcon said he doesn't fake claim roles. He claimed a town role. So unless we believe his previous statement about having that meta was a lie, falcon should be treated as confirmed or nearly confirmed town.

I'm not saying falcon has a "no lie" meta. I'm saying he has a "no fake claim" meta. Those metas exist, I've met people with them in other sites before.

I don’t understand the distinction you are making here. Isn’t “claiming a town role” basically the same as just saying you are town this game

You are right, which is why I'm not sure if falcon's weirdly specific meta applies here or not.

Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Wed Feb 09, 2022 8:14 am

Dragon D. Luffy wrote: ↑Wed Feb 09, 2022 6:37 am Falcon told me last game he never lies about his role claims.

Is this why you asked him if he was a doctor directly?

Yes.

People who have truth metas should be met with claim prompts asap imo.

Ok. I like that intention.

Urist wrote: ↑Wed Feb 09, 2022 8:44 am

Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Wed Feb 09, 2022 5:07 am I don’t remember what we did mech wise last time, but I think it worked-ish. Except Nut shot the wrong people.

I think maybe we coordinated enough to have the shooter covered, and then could rogue protect likely other targets of it felt necessary.

Scum won by shooting nutella on n7 so clearly it didn't work lol
I don't think you came up with a system in the last game.

Because scum wasn’t shot.
I had all 4 scum in a PoE of 5 on day 0 that game. It was stupid. Buuut anyway.

Dice roll + conservative extra protection is my vote. Ensures safety for Nook, doesn’t give too much away.

Dragon D. Luffy wrote: ↑Wed Feb 09, 2022 6:37 am Falcon told me last game he never lies about his role claims.

Is this why you asked him if he was a doctor directly?

Dragon D. Luffy wrote: ↑Wed Feb 09, 2022 6:58 am

Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Wed Feb 09, 2022 6:42 am

Dragon D. Luffy wrote: ↑Wed Feb 09, 2022 6:37 am Falcon told me last game he never lies about his role claims.

Falcon says he's town when he's mafia as well.

I don't know or care about the role claims.

I don't really think he's suspicious, but he doesn't have a "I'm town" truth tell.

I don't care if you don't care.

This game has no vanilla town roles. Falcon said he doesn't fake claim roles. He claimed a town role. So unless we believe his previous statement about having that meta was a lie, falcon should be treated as confirmed or nearly confirmed town.

I'm not saying falcon has a "no lie" meta. I'm saying he has a "no fake claim" meta. Those metas exist, I've met people with them in other sites before.

Sure.

Right now I'd probably shoot one of DDL or Creature.

Dragon D. Luffy wrote: ↑Wed Feb 09, 2022 6:37 am Falcon told me last game he never lies about his role claims.

Falcon says he's town when he's mafia as well.

I don't know or care about the role claims.

I don't really think he's suspicious, but he doesn't have a "I'm town" truth tell.

NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Tue Feb 08, 2022 9:45 pm Ok, so basic risk calculation indicates that if we all roll 3, and we only save on a 3 (1/3 of the time)... There's a 1.7% probability of mafia winning instantly with a shot on Nanook -> This isn't a viable shot for them.

If we maintain a ~1.5-2% chance each day (just need to calculate the numbers for each amount of pandas), every scenario, should be trivial...

That gives mafia about a 7% chance of winning in by day 4 (exclusive targeting Nanook), 13% chance with 8 days of targeting...

This is a very good number for town, and I think Nanook can kill mafia faster than this.. I have not calculated the probability of us running out of saves, but I would probably do that privately...

Nobody ever saves anyone but Nanook, and nobody ever claims saves.

I agree with a lot of this, but not at all on the last sentence. We should definitely open up for other saves than on Nanook.

We should make sure Nanook is either covered or reasonably covered.
It should be either:
1. Assigned and foolproof (So no "If our reads are good, we have enough protects", because this is where the trash can manipulate).
2. Dice roll as you suggest here, with a high probability of success.

I prefer option 2, the dice roll, because it ensures that mafia doesn't know who has used their protects or not.

But in addition to the dice roll, we should open up for protects on others (or self).
This is where the element of surprise comes in handy.
We should be conservative about it, for sure, but we shouldn't just dismiss doing it.
I mean, some people are probably going to go rogue to some degree anyway.

The problem with only protecting Nanook is obviously that mafia can kill anyone else, and then we lose protects really fast.
Doesn't matter that you save your protects if you just die anyway.

At the same time, you do have to be careful not to use too many protects too quickly.

So for example, if you roll 3 in a 1-3, you protect Nanook.
If you roll 1 or 2, you should probably save your protects, but if you feel like you could possibly successfully save someone because intuition or what not, then it's not a terrible idea to have that option. Saving someone who has an amount of protects left is pretty huge.

We have to reevaluate the strategy for the coming night based on who dies and what the numbers are in the game.

There will also be "oh shit we didn't think about this" moments later regarding mech, most likely.

For example, if we do manage to save someone else than Nanook, should we claim who we protected? It may confirm town. But it also gives mafia info. Etc.

But there's some bridges we cross when we get there.
First of all, let's make sure Nanook is covered within reason.

And then, we find mafia, so we don't have to think about this for too long.

Dragon D. Luffy wrote: ↑Tue Feb 08, 2022 8:42 pm Hmm

Not sure how hardcore your truth meta is in this case tbh, like theres no work to fake claim the only available town role. But some players have truth metas that are like a religion and they'd rather self-modkill than break them.

Falcon doesn't have a truth tell.

NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Tue Feb 08, 2022 9:29 pm Also, for anyone who's confused, this isn't a mafia game, it's a statistics problem, with a side of mafia for Nanook to play.

No, it's also a mafia game. We should all also solve alignments obviously, and that will also make it easier for Nanook as well as others to solve the game. That is how mafia works. For example, if my solving is good, I'm likely town. If my solving is bad, I'm likely mafia.

Creature wrote: ↑Tue Feb 08, 2022 9:29 pm We have four kills each so optimization would be to most players save their protects and only the players who we expect to die early should be using their protects.

Look at this obvious scum slip.

NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Tue Feb 08, 2022 10:21 pm Anyways this game is literally up to me to solve so like

Antagonizing me and refusing to cooperate isn't gonna help things

Literally just asking you to be a team player

No, it's up to everyone to solve. It's up to you to make the kills.

Guillotine wrote: ↑Tue Feb 08, 2022 10:32 pmDude, why is everything i say insulting to everyone here. This is getting tiring.

Im not opposed to plans, just take it from someone whom is great at turning plans made by town against them as a wolf, you gotta have a wild card, someone capable of doing an 180 on the wolves without risking a throw. The moment you commit to a plan in mafia, that is the moment you lose because scum can manipulate that.

Im not saying i dont want yo cooperate, i do, im saying… we dont want to lay it all out for scum.

Why are you so adamant about not cooperating and doing what you want, when you don't seem to understand the basics of the setup in the first place?

Creature wrote: ↑Tue Feb 08, 2022 10:33 pm I think I'm only liking falcon45ca and Urist right now.

Why Urist?

I don’t remember what we did mech wise last time, but I think it worked-ish. Except Nut shot the wrong people.

I think maybe we coordinated enough to have the shooter covered, and then could rogue protect likely other targets of it felt necessary.

Hello, everyone.