The Syndicate

God, I hope I'm right on Nutella cause I think I screwed up on MP.

Omg Radishes still has a vote.

NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Thu Apr 23, 2020 10:34 pm
Long Con wrote: ↑Thu Apr 23, 2020 10:30 pm
NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Thu Apr 23, 2020 10:29 pm Like I would bet on hyena town almost as much as I would on jack tbh
Jack isn't a bet.
Everyone’s a bet

Remind me to retell the story about the time I fooled someone into thinking he got recruited into a nonexistent cult.

If Hyena is more and more town, good. Stronger POE. We're more likely right about somebody today.

Long Con wrote: ↑Thu Apr 23, 2020 10:31 pm Is my secret vote moot at this point? IS it MP for sure?

I think 5 players claimed secret MP votes at least.

nutella wrote: ↑Thu Apr 23, 2020 10:25 pm
speedchuck wrote: ↑Thu Apr 23, 2020 10:23 pm From a scum perspective you usually want to be in communication with your mates if you're going to bus them. Usually. Wilgy was, if scum, setting up a bus without talking to his teammates about who died. I actually feel pretty good not lynching there.
No, I think the argument would be that he knew MR died and was faking not knowing and making up an organic looking scumread of him to look good. But that seems extremely far fetched imo.

See here's the thing. He came in, dumped that idea, then left.

It was like a wrestling promo. Simple enough and short enough it could be scripted.

Idk if it was scripted. I just can't even come close to ruling it out.

speedchuck wrote: ↑Thu Apr 23, 2020 10:27 pm
Long Con wrote: ↑Thu Apr 23, 2020 10:26 pm Maybe Hyena is scum.
Got to reconcile him campaigning for lynching his teammate D1, enough that he blackmailed nanook into voting for MR at one point.

Not to mention the other reasons I townread him, for the same reasons I townread 112.

I really gotta read D1.

Hyena and Tony are the townreads I have that I'm most likely to reexamine if we get double town flips here since they're based on the weakest stuff compared to my other townreads.

I still think my case on Nutella is good, esp because DDL and Speedchuck have agreed on individual bits.

Hyena and Tony are the townreads I have that I'm most likely to reexamine if we get double town flips here since they're based on the weakest stuff compared to my other townreads.

I still think my case on Nutella is good, esp because DDL and Speedchuck have agreed on individual bits.

nutella wrote: ↑Thu Apr 23, 2020 10:23 pm
juliets wrote: ↑Thu Apr 23, 2020 10:20 pm In GOC this year I had a fit because G-Man didn't defend at all from a lynch and even voted for himself. I didn't think it was a fair thing to do to his teammates of which I was one.

In the situation I found myself in now I think there's a good chance nutella is civ and if she is, she is honestly a better player and would serve the civ team better than I could so I considered just voting for someone off wagon. However, though I think she might be civ I'm 100% sure I'm civ and my belief is I'm obligated to vote for her to try and save myself. There are others here who can make the final decision. I did the best I could.

a ton of linki.
Ugh I'm so stressed now

inb4 me juliets and MP are all town and scum is laughing at all of us

If all three of your are town, who is scum?

M Plus 7 wrote: ↑Thu Apr 23, 2020 10:18 pm
Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Thu Apr 23, 2020 10:14 pm
M Plus 7 wrote: ↑Thu Apr 23, 2020 10:12 pm Holy shit, I'm so sorry for not being here, I can actually talk about it now I assume... I literally just lost an F5 by voting another townie in a game where I had over 1,000 posts and tons of angst, so I feel really bad for not doing my best here -- I had no idea these games were going to cross and I had hoped (as it was futile) that I was going to get NKed earlier.
Talk to us about Juliets and Sloonei and Wilgy.

And Nutella since you said "fair enough" to my reasoning for scumreading her but also locked her as town.
My reads are pretty... cloudy here, but I don't really town read any of those players. Are Sloonei and Wilgy still dead spots?

The best thing Sloonei has going for him is the controversial idea that he wouldn't replace out if he was mafia right after his teammate got daykilled. Like roughly half the people weighing in have agreed and half have disagreed. Maybe more disagreement.

The worst thing he has going for him is he's unlikely to be replaced or really do anything so we can't really take him into lylo.

(I'm just going to assume MP is town for the next half hour because I can always ignore everything he says if he turns out to be scum.)

nutella wrote: ↑Thu Apr 23, 2020 10:19 pm
M Plus 7 wrote: ↑Thu Apr 23, 2020 10:18 pm
Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Thu Apr 23, 2020 10:14 pm
M Plus 7 wrote: ↑Thu Apr 23, 2020 10:12 pm Holy shit, I'm so sorry for not being here, I can actually talk about it now I assume... I literally just lost an F5 by voting another townie in a game where I had over 1,000 posts and tons of angst, so I feel really bad for not doing my best here -- I had no idea these games were going to cross and I had hoped (as it was futile) that I was going to get NKed earlier.
Talk to us about Juliets and Sloonei and Wilgy.

And Nutella since you said "fair enough" to my reasoning for scumreading her but also locked her as town.
My reads are pretty... cloudy here, but I don't really town read any of those players. Are Sloonei and Wilgy still dead spots?
Wilgy came in with a big partial/outdated catch up post in which he scumread MR without having seen that he'd been vigged and flipped scum. Most of us figured that meant he was town, that it was pretty unlikely he was faking not knowing.

Except for me.

Okay so I should have held off on forcing a specific secret vote for another 20 minutes or so. If MP is town, I'm really really sorry.

Also uh....you're getting secret lynched.

M Plus 7 wrote: ↑Thu Apr 23, 2020 10:12 pm Holy shit, I'm so sorry for not being here, I can actually talk about it now I assume... I literally just lost an F5 by voting another townie in a game where I had over 1,000 posts and tons of angst, so I feel really bad for not doing my best here -- I had no idea these games were going to cross and I had hoped (as it was futile) that I was going to get NKed earlier.

Talk to us about Juliets and Sloonei and Wilgy.

And Nutella since you said "fair enough" to my reasoning for scumreading her but also locked her as town.

Juliets vs Nutella was exactly the boring thunderdome I anticipated but hey, 40 minutes to go.

Linki: Sucks, man.

Oh hey [mention]M Plus 7[/mention]

Yeah, I'm just voting MP secretly.

Hyena wrote: ↑Thu Apr 23, 2020 9:43 pm
Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Thu Apr 23, 2020 9:36 pm Lol MP has 100 more posts than me and also I didn't actually vote for him secretly yet.
You do realize we can't change our secret votes, right? :P

Yeah. I mean, what's done is probably done.

But seriously, I don't have much reason to townread him at all from EOD1 to EOD2.

Lol MP has 100 more posts than me and also I didn't actually vote for him secretly yet.

MP7: My towngame and my scumgame are lightyears different
Also MP7: Puts forth most of his effort into ketchup and then disappears

Like I know you ain't at no dinner parties. We're quarantined and shit.

(If MP7 is like a doctor or something, sorry.)

speedchuck wrote: ↑Thu Apr 23, 2020 9:20 pm
Hyena wrote: ↑Thu Apr 23, 2020 9:18 pm
speedchuck wrote: ↑Thu Apr 23, 2020 9:13 pm Let's look at Juliets, MP, and nutella from a practical perspective. If we were to lynch two of them, which would give us the best path forward?
The worst case scenario would be two town flips, right? Which two town flips do you think would give us the most information?
*cringe*

Yeah I don't really like looking at it from that perspective. I don't want to strategize over 'but what if we're completely wrong and dumb'

Yeah. But devil's advocate, I guess I'd be most upset by a MP/Juliets double town flip. Or basically any double townflip that doesn't involve Sloonei or Wilgy. Which is what I've set us up for.

I'm not even joking. I'm just getting my way.

Of course, if Juliets continues to townread Nutella and Nutella continues to be unconvincing about Juliets, this is going to be a boring thunderdome.

I don't even townread Juliets, really. I just...don't get the case or the discrepancy between the length of the case and the confidence in it.

#strategy

I already privately voted MP.

Now we have to lynch him and Nutella.

We're not having public ties when we don't have private consensus. Somebody make an argument for taking someone off or on the chopping board.

I've made the argument for taking Sloonei off. If you don't like it, argue with me. We're not splitting the private vote and letting wolves choose the private vote.

If we can't decide between Nutella and MP publically, let's lynch one privately and consolidate on the other.

nutella wrote: ↑Thu Apr 23, 2020 9:04 pm Jack, why am I not included in the trust fall? And why are you basically assuming I am scum as part of your reasons for reading other players? You're really being uncharitable and closed-minded about this imo.

Because I strongly suspect you and anticipate you being publicly lynched.

I need to help decide on the secret vote. We're not voting you secretly.

It's an entirely naked slot at worst.

If you want to lynch Sloonei, convince me Juliets and MP are town. Cause I kinda think there has to be a wolf on the Sig wagon.

Trustfall

Sloonei - He might not want to replace out considering the shape his team is in if he’s scum.

Wilgy - Maybe he didn’t know MR was dead cause he’s town.

MP - He’ll probably post a lot?

Juliets - The main push against her is coming from Nutella, who is likely scum.

I find my reason not to vote Slooneichan most convincing, then Juliets, then Wilgy with MP last.

Reverse trustfall

Sloonei - Nothing

Juliets - Her vote helped save MR.

MP - His interactions with Nutella are bad and his vote helped save MR.

Wilgy - Nothing

So I’m least inclined to lynch Sloonei of the four potential secret votes.

speedchuck wrote: ↑Thu Apr 23, 2020 8:25 pm
juliets wrote: ↑Thu Apr 23, 2020 8:22 pm Guys, honestly, read Nutella's response to my suspicion of her. Does she sound like scum there? I don't think so.
Because meta?

The response itself didn't make much of an impression on me.

+1

speedchuck wrote: ↑Thu Apr 23, 2020 8:17 pm
Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Thu Apr 23, 2020 8:15 pm
speedchuck wrote: ↑Thu Apr 23, 2020 8:13 pm
Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Thu Apr 23, 2020 8:11 pm
nutella wrote: ↑Thu Apr 23, 2020 7:52 pm
Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Thu Apr 23, 2020 7:43 pm
I do think Sloonei is more likely a wolf than Juliets if Nutella is town so there’s that.
How so??

Generally I am thinking it's less and less likely that Sloonei is scum here. Especially from his latest post. I don't think he would just resign like that as scum after MR's death, unless his teammate is really deep.
Cause your case on Juliets isn’t convincing.
I'm not following you here.
Like the case on Juliets is so unconvincing, it doesn’t even move her below the null slot that is Sloonei.
Oh.

Hard disagree.

She quoted four posts, said they didn’t interact enough and also a vague tone read....on Juliets.

I guess Juliets is more likely to be scum than Sloonei just cause wagonomics but whatever it’s close and Jules is less aligned with Nutella.

I’m pretty fine with lynching Nutella and any of MP, Sloonei, Juliets, Wilgy.

My guess between the four is MP but that’s my POE and three of them are basically null reads for me.

speedchuck wrote: ↑Thu Apr 23, 2020 8:13 pm
Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Thu Apr 23, 2020 8:11 pm
nutella wrote: ↑Thu Apr 23, 2020 7:52 pm
Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Thu Apr 23, 2020 7:43 pm
I do think Sloonei is more likely a wolf than Juliets if Nutella is town so there’s that.
How so??

Generally I am thinking it's less and less likely that Sloonei is scum here. Especially from his latest post. I don't think he would just resign like that as scum after MR's death, unless his teammate is really deep.
Cause your case on Juliets isn’t convincing.
I'm not following you here.

Like the case on Juliets is so unconvincing, it doesn’t even move her below the null slot that is Sloonei.

nutella wrote: ↑Thu Apr 23, 2020 7:52 pm
Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Thu Apr 23, 2020 7:43 pm
I do think Sloonei is more likely a wolf than Juliets if Nutella is town so there’s that.
How so??

Generally I am thinking it's less and less likely that Sloonei is scum here. Especially from his latest post. I don't think he would just resign like that as scum after MR's death, unless his teammate is really deep.

Cause your case on Juliets isn’t convincing.

speedchuck wrote: ↑Thu Apr 23, 2020 5:21 pm Okay so jack voted sig, apparently. I was one of the MR voters, and I'm not on my own readlist. Sorry for the confusion.

Anywho.

Nanook voted Sig for self Prez. I suspect everyone else who voted Sig except Jack.
Why DID you vote Sig, Jack?

Cause I townread Tony and MP and didn’t have time to actually catch up.

speedchuck wrote: ↑Thu Apr 23, 2020 5:01 pm
Long Con wrote: ↑Thu Apr 23, 2020 4:05 pm I will shoot Sloonei if that's the consensus. He might be bad. He might have bowed back out due to the extra pressures of being bad. He might be Civ, and the secret votes will be unanimous. We can't let him get to Final 3 either way, right?
Shoot?

*ganged up on

Consider if Sloonei is the type of player to watch teammate Radish get blasted and teammate Nutella or MP get hanged up on and then replace out after a few posts.

I don’t think he is. A Nutella/Sloonei lynch is similar to a Nutella/Juliets lynch. It’s unlikely to catch two wolves. More likely to catch one even if we’re wrong on our main suspect.

I do think Sloonei is more likely a wolf than Juliets if Nutella is town so there’s that.

speedchuck wrote: ↑Thu Apr 23, 2020 4:41 pm Some questions to consider:

If nutella is scum, would she be as up-front-and-center as she is now? Kinda powerwolfing if so, even if she's suspected.

If MP is town (regardless of nutella's alignment) would he be voting only based on who he can save and who he trusts rather than, IDK, actually having reads of his own?

Absolutely yes.

Huh?

juliets wrote: ↑Thu Apr 23, 2020 7:34 pm
Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Thu Apr 23, 2020 7:29 pm I’m not giving credit to Wilgy for scumreading a player who died 20 hours prior. That info would be all over scumchat. It’s a really easy thing to fake and it doesn’t move my read of him at all.
Jack are you arguing for him to be the secret vote instead of Sloonei?

Not necessarily.

I’m not giving credit to Wilgy for scumreading a player who died 20 hours prior. That info would be all over scumchat. It’s a really easy thing to fake and it doesn’t move my read of him at all.

I'm okay with lynching Nutella and an inactive but I'll be entirely unsurprised when the inactive flips town and we move right back to MP the next day.

Dragon D. Luffy wrote: ↑Thu Apr 23, 2020 11:10 am
Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Thu Apr 23, 2020 12:56 am Like unflipped associative reads aside, Juliets is null. I read those posts and they don’t even move my Juliets needle. They give you a confident scumread on her. That smells to me.

I think Hyena believes his MP read even if it’s wrong.

I’m inclined to think Nutella doesn’t believe her Juliets read.

In the event I find myself shaken by flips not going how I plan on them going, I lose confidence. So if I was in Nutella’s shoes and I did find those posts suspicious, I’d be like “Sooooo maybe Juliets is scum. Idk. It’s the best I’ve got” not “I am confident in my scumread of Juliets so I’m keeping all the townreads I have even though I just lost my shit over an incorrect townread.”

It doesn’t feel like an actual town mindset.

Supposing Nutella is scum with MP. MP comes charging in. Nutella gives out an easy townread and then pushes on one of the null quartet off flimsy shit. That may not be what we’re seeing but that scenario feels consistent with Nutella’s actions and mindset in a way her being town doesn’t.

Or she’s scum and MP isn’t and figures she isn’t getting the lynch, accepts her pocket and shifts elsewhere. Also not necessarily the case but consistent.
This is the most conficent nutella I've seen in years, imo.

An hour after losing her shit over Radishes getting daykilled, which should have killed her confidence. What restored it was a selection of like 2 Juliets posts and 2 Radishes posts.

It's fake.

Master Radishes wrote: ↑Tue Apr 21, 2020 8:04 am This post is mainly for reference (mine if no one else’s):

With just a few minutes left, MP7 & Nute created a 4/4/4 split:

MR – DDL, speed, Hyena, Nook
Nook – LC, sig, 112, nutella
Sig – juliets, TSP, Jack, MP7

(To the best of my knowledge those votes are in chronological order too.)

Master Radishes wrote: ↑Tue Apr 21, 2020 8:31 am And just before that moment:

MR (4) – DDL, speed, Hyena, Nook
Nook (3) – LC, sig, 112
Sig (3) – juliets, TSP, Jack
Jack (2) - nutella, MP7

Master Radishes wrote: ↑Tue Apr 21, 2020 12:12 pm
Master Radishes wrote: ↑Tue Apr 21, 2020 8:31 am And just before that moment:

MR (4) – DDL, speed, Hyena, Nook
Nook (3) – LC, sig, 112
Sig (3) – juliets, TSP, Jack
Jack (2) - nutella, MP7
Nook is not w/w with either Nutella or MP7. If they were scumbuddies they wouldn't tie the vote - they'd just keep the status quo or find an excuse to join my wagon. There's no more than one wolf in that grouping, and maybe none. (I'm also assuming MP7 and Nute aren't wolfing together in that last minute vote switch situation.)

This is a bit of an odd series of posts if the team is Radishes/Nutella/MP because he's basically calling out a save attempt.

That said, he uses this analysis to say that MP and Nutella aren't teamed and that they aren't aligned with Nanook, which means that if Nanook is mafia, we shouldn't be looking at MP and Nutella.

So at first I read this as a good look for Nutella and MP but the more I look at it, the more I find it's a bad one.

Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Thu Apr 23, 2020 10:59 am
Dragon D. Luffy wrote: ↑Thu Apr 23, 2020 10:55 am I hate the nutella/MP interactions with every fiber of my being.

There are like 20 different possibilities for pocking in each page of it.

If they are both town I'll eat my hat.
Yeah yeah one of them should be calling out the other for the pocket attempt.

Especially after when I pointed out MP's reason for townreading Nutella was bad, he was pretty much like "fair enough."

But they're not. Cause they're teamed. MP's read on Nutella is fake and Nutella readily accepts it because she's not interested in reading MP either.

Dragon D. Luffy wrote: ↑Thu Apr 23, 2020 10:55 am I hate the nutella/MP interactions with every fiber of my being.

There are like 20 different possibilities for pocking in each page of it.

If they are both town I'll eat my hat.

Yeah yeah one of them should be calling out the other for the pocket attempt.

Especially after when I pointed out MP's reason for townreading Nutella was bad, he was pretty much like "fair enough."

Master Radishes wrote: ↑Mon Apr 20, 2020 6:56 pm
M Plus 7 wrote: ↑Mon Apr 20, 2020 6:45 pm Hey MR, what are your current reads and/or POE? Sorry if this question is answered somewhere else.
Probs town: LC, 112, Speed, maybe Jack based off recent posts, maybe Hyena?

Not lynching per activity: PC, Wilgy

Inner PoE: TSP, DDL, sig

Outer PoE: Nook, nutella, I guess Juliets (not SRing her really, just don't know what her scum game looks like), making my mind up on you still

Ask me in a few minutes and I'll probably shuffle my PoE around.

Link: jfc MP stop posting

So if my reads are all correct, Radishes puts all townies in his towngroup and all townies in his inner POE. Leaves his teammates in the outer POE/inactivity groups where they can be bused or saved as needed. Wouldn't necessarily expect no teammates in the probably town group but I really don't see any of those players being wolves.

On lynching multiple players.

Past strategy used: Lynch a suspect and a quiet player
Outcome: Quiet player is town but hey, that's what usually happens when you POE lynch quiet players and at least you didn't waste a day on it.

Past strategy used: Lynch two top suspects with teammate equity
Outcome: Both are town shit

Proposed idea: Lynch two players that are both suspicious and likely not teamed like Nutella and Juliets
Hypothetical Outcome: Probably one wolf lynch and one town lynch and even on the off chance both are town, we don't waste tomorrow lynching the counterwagon

Proposed idea: Lynch two top suspects with teammate equity because I feel confident enough Nutella is scum to just lynch her and MP
Hypothetical Outcome: We could just win yea

I think Juliets not wanting to vote for me on my anniversary is townie js.

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