The thought did occur to me that there are a lot of consensus townies and Epi wasn't one of them.
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- Thu Nov 08, 2018 2:41 pm
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- Thu Nov 08, 2018 2:36 pm
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Re: Hogwarts Mafia - Day 4
Megaman.speedchuck wrote: ↑Thu Nov 08, 2018 2:25 pmWHEN WAS THE LAST TIME I WAS MAFIA YOU MOUTH BREATHERJackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Thu Nov 08, 2018 2:14 pm I think you're all thinking way too hard about the whole Speedchuck/Quin fiasco. There's some overwhelming evidence that nobody is even considering.
Spoiler: show
WHEN
I'LL KILL THE LOT OF YOU
- Thu Nov 08, 2018 2:36 pm
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- Thu Nov 08, 2018 2:14 pm
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Re: Hogwarts Mafia - Day 4
I think you're all thinking way too hard about the whole Speedchuck/Quin fiasco. There's some overwhelming evidence that nobody is even considering.
Spoiler: show
- Wed Nov 07, 2018 10:47 pm
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Re: Hogwarts Mafia - Day 4
I know part of what makes it great is the not knowing.
- Wed Nov 07, 2018 10:46 pm
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Re: Hogwarts Mafia - Day 4
I wanna add a Sythern scarf to my avatar or these sunglasses to a Malfoy avatar.
Btw [mention]G-Man[/mention] Dark Horse put out two The Thing miniseries but they weren’t that good. They were kinda okay.
I still wanna know if (seriously don’t click this if you haven’t watched The Thing)
Btw [mention]G-Man[/mention] Dark Horse put out two The Thing miniseries but they weren’t that good. They were kinda okay.
I still wanna know if (seriously don’t click this if you haven’t watched The Thing)
Spoiler: show
- Wed Nov 07, 2018 10:42 pm
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Re: Hogwarts Mafia - Day 4
I’m just here to try to break the game.speedchuck wrote: ↑Wed Nov 07, 2018 10:41 pm Not mine, Jack.
And thanks for explaining for me about the Diridiri cuz Quin is confusing the heck out of me.
- Wed Nov 07, 2018 10:41 pm
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Re: Hogwarts Mafia - Day 4
But Kara is in like every scum poe.speedchuck wrote: ↑Wed Nov 07, 2018 10:39 pmSo that when I die my knowledge lives on. I think Kara is town.Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Wed Nov 07, 2018 10:34 pm @speedchuck
Why did you tell Kara who you think the vig is?
Considered telling the rest of the thread, too.
- Wed Nov 07, 2018 10:40 pm
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Re: Hogwarts Mafia - Day 4
Speed is saying his floobuddy (who is Kara because she already said so) dirticrawler switched herself with Speed.Quin wrote: ↑Wed Nov 07, 2018 10:37 pmdiricrawl cannot switch actions directed at one person to another, diricrawl can only switch actions directed at the owner to another. speedchuck has maintained the first, which is a mechanical impossibility.JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Wed Nov 07, 2018 10:36 pmI don't get it. Please explain while I sit with my legs crossed and listen nice a nice boy.
he also says his floo powder buddy is the reason for this, who can only be a Slytherin since they last won the house cup.
Therefore, someone who have had to misdirect Kara and him for his info to be wrong.
He’s still bad but you misunderstood.
- Wed Nov 07, 2018 10:34 pm
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Re: Hogwarts Mafia - Day 4
[mention]speedchuck[/mention]
Why did you tell Kara who you think the vig is?
Why did you tell Kara who you think the vig is?
- Wed Nov 07, 2018 10:32 pm
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Re: Hogwarts Mafia - Day 4
I liked that part where Sloonei, Mac and Jay were like “Aha! DH is bad!” and then Jay and Sloonei ditched the idea. That was a good read.
- Wed Nov 07, 2018 10:22 pm
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Re: Hogwarts Mafia - Day 4
Boom scum caught. Bake em away, toys.JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Wed Nov 07, 2018 9:49 pmo rly just paying your bills right
just like a decent honest citizen right
nothing shady at all, perfectly innocent stuff
OR NOT
- Wed Nov 07, 2018 10:17 pm
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- Wed Nov 07, 2018 10:05 pm
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Re: Hogwarts Mafia - Day 4
Also I’m simple af.
- Wed Nov 07, 2018 10:05 pm
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Re: Hogwarts Mafia - Day 4
Yeah but Speedchuck and Nutella so what do I know?MacDougall wrote: ↑Wed Nov 07, 2018 9:04 pm Civilians of Hogwarts.
When the LC situation occurred, was your immediate reaction "LC's teammates would have tried to save him there."?
- Wed Nov 07, 2018 9:00 pm
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Re: Hogwarts Mafia - Day 4
I trust Quin more.Sloonei wrote: ↑Wed Nov 07, 2018 7:41 pmWas this question ever answered?
Additionally, I want to ask who we'd believe more in the Quin vs. Speedchuck split if poutanko's cop claim didn't exist?
And also if there's a scenario in which all three of speedchuck, quin, and poutanko are town and telling the truth?
If these are things that have already been discussed then you can just slap me and point me in the right direction. But I'm hung up on these reported night actions right now and feel like it's the most pressing issue we've got right now.
- Wed Nov 07, 2018 4:19 pm
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Re: Hogwarts Mafia - Day 4
Did Glor fail N1 or more likely N2? If they misdirected you into a dead player, they had to know you had a phoenix.juliets wrote: ↑Wed Nov 07, 2018 4:14 pm Ok, I have been debating this at work and have decided that given the confusion about the night actions I should at least clear one of them up (or make it more confusing).
When I got Glorf's role card I was blown away to see that he had the Phoenix. I suspect he was waiting to use it if JJJ died but of course I don't know for sure. So I promptly did what Colin has been begging everyone to do and I used it, targeting Turnip Head. When dawn came I felt punched in the stomach to see that INH had been rezzed. I suspect I was targeted with Imperio though the only way that makes much sense is if the mafia already knew where the Phoenix was. I mean, why would they target me of all people with Imperio?
So mix that into the cake batter and see if we get a less lumpy cake - or is it now more lumpy?
lots of linki which I will read now
This means scum misdirect shenanigans very unlikely to be the cause of Speed/Quin discrepancy.
- Wed Nov 07, 2018 4:14 pm
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Re: Hogwarts Mafia - Day 4
The rest of my poe
- Wed Nov 07, 2018 4:13 pm
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Re: Hogwarts Mafia - Day 4
Kara, Mac and (drumroll please) a deepwolf are my POE.
Cause I never ever have only wolves in my POE. So why bother dig into my townleans at this point? Just wait for some flips.
Cause I never ever have only wolves in my POE. So why bother dig into my townleans at this point? Just wait for some flips.
- Wed Nov 07, 2018 4:10 pm
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Re: Hogwarts Mafia - Day 4
Obviously we need to lynch INH, Speedchuck and Quin for being in the wrong houses. We can just fast forward now.
- Wed Nov 07, 2018 4:08 pm
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Re: Hogwarts Mafia - Day 4
Suspect pool.speedchuck wrote: ↑Wed Nov 07, 2018 4:06 pmI don't know whether you're taking him out of the suspect pool or out of the townfirm pool.Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Wed Nov 07, 2018 4:02 pmGently.
And why?
I was being cheeky about his flawless “I haven’t read” logic but seriously I think Sloonei is spewed good by LC flipping bad. Jay disagrees but whatever.
- Wed Nov 07, 2018 4:05 pm
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Re: Hogwarts Mafia - Day 4
But yeah, exactly like Phenon.
I don’t want it.
Stay the course. This is fine.
I don’t want it.
Stay the course. This is fine.
- Wed Nov 07, 2018 4:02 pm
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Re: Hogwarts Mafia - Day 4
Gently.
- Wed Nov 07, 2018 3:46 pm
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Re: Hogwarts Mafia - Day 4
I’m taking Sloonei out of my poe.
- Wed Nov 07, 2018 3:46 pm
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Re: Hogwarts Mafia - Day 4
Flawless logic.Sloonei wrote: ↑Wed Nov 07, 2018 3:19 pmI have not read, so it makes sense that i wouldn't have reads.JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Wed Nov 07, 2018 3:15 pmThis is not a read.Sloonei wrote: ↑Wed Nov 07, 2018 3:11 pmJack - He was my first suspect based on a very minimal reading of his posts. I haven't abandoned that, but I also haven't followed up on it. I've not seen him doing anything alarming since my initial accusation, but I also haven't looked too closely. He'd be in the closest-to-neutral tier of scum reads on a hypothetical rainbow list.JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Wed Nov 07, 2018 2:55 pm Sloonei, could you please provide some quick gut reads on the people you didn't remove from your POE pool?
This is not a read.
Why aren't you comfortable?
This is not a read.Sloonei wrote: ↑Wed Nov 07, 2018 3:11 pmMac - I never really can read Mac even though we've been playing together for 100 years. I haven't discerned any notable scum-tells in that time. Sometimes I pick up on town-tells though, and I haven't done that here. As I mentioned in my last post, he seems like someone to talk about after the current episode ends.
This is not a read.
This is not a read.
This is not a read.
F-minus
- Wed Nov 07, 2018 3:41 pm
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Re: Hogwarts Mafia - Day 4
You’re ruining my secret code.JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Wed Nov 07, 2018 3:11 pmAre you talking about Phenon? I've been thinking about that one.Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Wed Nov 07, 2018 3:09 pm This one time I caught Golden and this was a secret code for me to point back to later.
- Wed Nov 07, 2018 3:30 pm
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Re: Hogwarts Mafia - Day 4
#helping
- Wed Nov 07, 2018 3:30 pm
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Re: Hogwarts Mafia - Day 4
What about horocruxes?JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Wed Nov 07, 2018 2:24 pm Let's work out the numbers so we can be more comfortable in our POE efforts.
The game began with 24 players. Given typical ratios, that is likely to amount to 5 or 6 mafia members. Considering the presence if civilian vigilante(s) as we've seen it, the safer assumption is probably 6.
If you accept that premise, we began at 18 vs. 6. Independents could influence this number, though I don't think there's been any evidence to indicate that one exists. It's not in the role list, and that could be interpreted as a bastardization or a host lie (as DDL has assured us is not the case). This isn't a slam dunk, but it's where I lean. So, 18 vs. 6.
We have 16 players alive. 2 mafia members are dead, and one more is confirmed among us. That leaves us with a theoretical present ratio of 12 vs. 4. In a standard one-lynch/one-kill progression, that would leave us with three mislynches until a MyLo phase at 6 vs. 4. Obviously, that standard progression has not existed to this point and is highly unlikely to exist, so we will have to continually monitor the numbers as they adapt.
If INH is successfully lynched today, we'd enter the night at 12 vs. 3. Worst-case scenario given what we've seen so far, three civilians are killed in the night phase (one by the mafia team, one by a vigilante, and one more by whatever other means). That'd result in 9 vs. 3 the following day. That's the worst scenario (and it still isn't terrible). If a mafioso again dies during the night phase, the dynamic is much brighter for the civilians. We have a clear lead right now, but complacency will murder us if we allow it to.
I think a good POE number to aspire to right now is then 6. If you can contain an entire mafia team of four members (including INH) within your six, then we should have enough mislynches available to win the game. It's a team effort though, so get to it. If anyone sees a flaw in my math or my logic, lemme have it.
- Wed Nov 07, 2018 3:09 pm
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Re: Hogwarts Mafia - Day 4
This one time I caught Golden and this was a secret code for me to point back to later.
- Wed Nov 07, 2018 3:03 pm
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Re: Hogwarts Mafia - Day 4
I tried this once and it just made it worse.Lunalee wrote: ↑Wed Nov 07, 2018 12:25 pmI have a theory that people's avatars affect other's views of their posts. Maybe I should change mine to a cute animal and see what happensspeedchuck wrote: ↑Wed Nov 07, 2018 11:24 am poutanko - Town because she is sweet and innocent and has good scum interactions and because no scum would fake a cop check right now right?
- Wed Nov 07, 2018 1:46 pm
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- Wed Nov 07, 2018 12:40 pm
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Re: Hogwarts Mafia - Day 4
Not sure if crying birds count as spells.
- Wed Nov 07, 2018 12:39 pm
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Re: Hogwarts Mafia - Day 4
Might not have been on purpose.
[Crucio]: This spell will torture a student, roleblocking them for a night and forcing them to reveal what spells they know.
[Imperio]: This spell will take control of a student’s actions. Any abilities they use will be redirected to a target of the user’s choice. The student being controlled cannot be forced to self-target. This ability can only be used once in the game on each player.
It’s one thing to rez a scumbuddy and waste the town’s time. Meaner to force a townie to burn their one shot rez one a wolf.
- Wed Nov 07, 2018 12:15 pm
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Re: Hogwarts Mafia - Day 4
Same reason they’d rez INH. Wastes a day or a vig shot.speedchuck wrote: ↑Wed Nov 07, 2018 12:11 pmWhy would scum rez Nova, though?Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Wed Nov 07, 2018 12:09 pmResurrection stone doesn’t pure rez in the lore and this is the first rez.Quin wrote: ↑Wed Nov 07, 2018 12:29 am fyi INH could have been resurrected with the resurrection stone. If scum got possession of it then it effectively became a throwaway item they'd want to use straight away, since it's no use to them as all roles flip. No fuckery there.
Unless he was resurrected by town in which case admit yourself to St. Mungo's ASAP.
We can assume the rez is a one shot or has some sort of major drawback. Otherwise, why didn’t scum rez previously? Even if they just got it, why didn’t town rez previously?
I'm betting it was a one-shot pheonix thing.
- Wed Nov 07, 2018 12:12 pm
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Re: Hogwarts Mafia - Day 4
Maybe derp. Deathly hallows still awesome.DharmaHelper wrote: ↑Wed Nov 07, 2018 12:32 amDidn't the rezz say Phoenix?Quin wrote: ↑Wed Nov 07, 2018 12:29 am fyi INH could have been resurrected with the resurrection stone. If scum got possession of it then it effectively became a throwaway item they'd want to use straight away, since it's no use to them as all roles flip. No fuckery there.
Unless he was resurrected by town in which case admit yourself to St. Mungo's ASAP.
- Wed Nov 07, 2018 12:09 pm
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Re: Hogwarts Mafia - Day 4
Resurrection stone doesn’t pure rez in the lore and this is the first rez.Quin wrote: ↑Wed Nov 07, 2018 12:29 am fyi INH could have been resurrected with the resurrection stone. If scum got possession of it then it effectively became a throwaway item they'd want to use straight away, since it's no use to them as all roles flip. No fuckery there.
Unless he was resurrected by town in which case admit yourself to St. Mungo's ASAP.
We can assume the rez is a one shot or has some sort of major drawback. Otherwise, why didn’t scum rez previously? Even if they just got it, why didn’t town rez previously?
- Wed Nov 07, 2018 11:28 am
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Re: Hogwarts Mafia - Day 4
But yeah, where he comes out and says it.
- Wed Nov 07, 2018 11:27 am
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Re: Hogwarts Mafia - Day 4
I’m refering to a specific post where Jimmy at mentioned me on the previous page.speedchuck wrote: ↑Wed Nov 07, 2018 11:25 amCan you quote the LC post where he said that? Or are you referring to the action?Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Wed Nov 07, 2018 11:24 am @JaggedJimmyJay
I just don’t think LC goes “Yeah, I saved Owner, who is my scum partner.” It reads like buddying.
- Wed Nov 07, 2018 11:24 am
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Re: Hogwarts Mafia - Day 4
[mention]JaggedJimmyJay[/mention]
I just don’t think LC goes “Yeah, I saved Owner, who is my scum partner.” It reads like buddying.
I just don’t think LC goes “Yeah, I saved Owner, who is my scum partner.” It reads like buddying.
- Wed Nov 07, 2018 9:48 am
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Re: Hogwarts Mafia - Day 4
nutella wrote: ↑Tue Nov 06, 2018 9:28 pmIf you did that in a dream you could call it an REM speedwagonColinIsCool wrote: ↑Tue Nov 06, 2018 9:24 pm Trading to [VOTE: SPEED] aubergine wagon for now, I guess
- Wed Nov 07, 2018 12:41 am
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Re: Hogwarts Mafia - Day 4
Oh and [VOTE:
INH] aubergine
- Wed Nov 07, 2018 12:38 am
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Re: Hogwarts Mafia - Day 4
Also, Kyle is more fun than all of you.
- Wed Nov 07, 2018 12:38 am
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Re: Hogwarts Mafia - Day 4
I saw you mentioned me and I was like “I’ve scumread Nutella all game but it would be funny to be masoned with her for a phase.”nutella wrote: ↑Wed Nov 07, 2018 12:20 ammaybe if you ever had anything remotely interesting to say everJackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Tue Nov 06, 2018 10:50 pmFuck yeah. Who wants to be my new roomie?Dragon D. Luffy wrote: ↑Tue Nov 06, 2018 7:17 pm House cup results for Day/Night 3!
Just like in the books, when you take the protagonists out of the equation, the winner is...
Spoiler: show
Imagine my disappointment.
- Tue Nov 06, 2018 10:54 pm
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- Tue Nov 06, 2018 10:50 pm
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Re: Hogwarts Mafia - Day 4
Fuck yeah. Who wants to be my new roomie?Dragon D. Luffy wrote: ↑Tue Nov 06, 2018 7:17 pm House cup results for Day/Night 3!
Just like in the books, when you take the protagonists out of the equation, the winner is...
Spoiler: show
- Tue Nov 06, 2018 12:45 pm
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Re: Hogwarts Mafia - Night 3
This all assumes the mafia doesn’t have extra kill powers in their secrets, which makes the odds worse for LC by cutting down on the hallow gain chance via vig kill.
It also assumes LC stopped the lynch. Glor (who imo is confirmed town) is the person most likely to be lynched instead based on raw votes. Colin is a long shot for being the player who was actually lynched but iirc, he was 2 or 3 votes down from LC.
It also assumes LC stopped the lynch. Glor (who imo is confirmed town) is the person most likely to be lynched instead based on raw votes. Colin is a long shot for being the player who was actually lynched but iirc, he was 2 or 3 votes down from LC.
- Tue Nov 06, 2018 12:41 pm
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Re: Hogwarts Mafia - Night 3
Ebwop
Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Tue Nov 06, 2018 12:38 pmHe seems to have survived a lynch (seems because there are vote changing powers) and most of the ways that could happen (secrets) are bad guy secrets. The others are the deathly hallows. Mafia have probably made 2 kills so even if it was a hallow and LC killed to get it, there’s roughly a 2/5ths chance LC got the hallow by scumkilling someone.
For LC to be town, he’d have to have started with a hallow or gained it from a vig kill. The chance of LC starting with a hallow is about 1/8th. The chance of a hallow moving via kill is about 1/5th. More like 1/13th for it to move via vig kill.
Ergo, the odds of a lynch avoid power being in death eater secrets is much higher than LC being town.
- Tue Nov 06, 2018 12:38 pm
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Re: Hogwarts Mafia - Night 3
He seems to have survived a lynch (seems because there are vote changing powers) and most of the ways that could happen (secrets) are bad guy secrets. The others are the deathly hallows. Mafia have probably made 2 kills so even if it was a hallow, there’s roughly a 2/5ths chance LC got the hallow by killing someone.
For LC to be town, he’d have to have started with a hallow or gained it from a vig kill. The chance of LC starting with a hallow is about 1/8th. The chance of a hallow moving via kill is about 1/5th.
Ergo, the odds of a lynch avoid power being in death eater secrets is much higher than LC being town.
- Tue Nov 06, 2018 10:49 am
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Re: Hogwarts Mafia - Day 3
What makes you think they are town?Epignosis wrote: ↑Tue Nov 06, 2018 1:52 amI don't suspect either.Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Mon Nov 05, 2018 4:01 pmTalk to me about LC and Nutella.Epignosis wrote: ↑Mon Nov 05, 2018 3:59 pm I am only on page 44, so I'm still behind. Most of the pages are blocked here and I will be in a meeting when the poll closes, I think. I recall being impressed with Russtifinko's Hitler thing, and so I'm putting my vote on timmer. I don't hate the Colin lynch, but I see he already has five votes.
- Mon Nov 05, 2018 11:53 pm
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Re: Hogwarts Mafia - Night 3
Nothing’s sexier than LC when you’re high.