The Syndicate

Master Radishes wrote: ↑Sat Nov 30, 2019 7:58 pm Jack's snarky post ^ is not made by a townie trying to convince us of his innocence.

If Jack thinks I'm 3P (I was expecting a light blue colour, though) then he should be making his case for LLD or juliets to be the mafia. Instead he's trying to get me lynched and effectively rolling his eyes at me and playing the 'well we just don't know' card.

I’m trying to debunk your bullshit which could cause Juliets, who has had a hell of a week, to make a wrong snap decision.

You a textbook poisoning the well. Put forth a nonsense case. If I let it stand, I’m a wolf. If I debunk it, I’m a wolf.

Just because you’re ignoring mechanical ways for townies to win (cause you’re not interested in them because you’re not town) doesn’t mean the town should. There are mechanical things that I don’t know because I’m not Juliets. That fact doesn’t make me scum.

If there’s a wolf at every level, it means that D2 and D3 were joke phases that didn’t do anything except at DL1.

Look at DL4 and tell me that there is supposed to be a fair townie to wolf balance in each DL.

Master Radishes wrote: ↑Sat Nov 30, 2019 7:54 pm On Day 4:

DL2: 112, Mac, Michelle, Colin*, Pawn*
DL3: Dom, Epi, iaafr, Jack
DL4: Eva, Radishes, sprityo

Again, where's the scum?

Master Radishes wrote: ↑Sat Nov 30, 2019 7:51 pm
Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Sat Nov 30, 2019 7:50 pm We already went over this. We don’t know how many scum belonged on each level and even if we did, we don’t know where Drago was supposed to go.
...is what you have to say, yes.

And your response to that massive hole in your idea is what?

Master Radishes wrote: ↑Sat Nov 30, 2019 7:49 pm Let me try colour coding and such.

On Day 3:

Dream Level 2 - 112, LLD, Mac, Michelle, Quin
Dream Level 3 - Colin, Dom, Epi, Eva, iaafr, Jack, Radishes, Pawn, sprit

Where is the scum likely to be found?

Actually wait good idea.

We already went over this. We don’t know how many scum belonged on each level and even if we did, we don’t know where Drago was supposed to go.

Massive disappointment.

Master Radishes wrote: ↑Sat Nov 30, 2019 7:40 pm how much faith do you put in our Deified Gamemakers to keep balance?

Lol I can tell this is gonna be good.

If Juliets thinks we can win by going no lynch, I don’t have anything that says she’s wrong.

It’s certainly better than taking a coin flip to maybe lynch one of the baddies and then hope mechanics stop the other.

juliets wrote: ↑Sat Nov 30, 2019 7:18 pm
Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Sat Nov 30, 2019 7:12 pm
juliets wrote: ↑Sat Nov 30, 2019 7:10 pm
Master Radishes wrote: ↑Sat Nov 30, 2019 7:06 pm What if we no lynch and see what happens?
Honestly, this is where I started the day.

What would make this a bad idea?
You suggesting this changes the math.
I'm just suggesting we make sure it doesn't change the math. I'm slower to evaluate the options than you guys. That's why I asked the question.

The answer is always like “If I tell you the scenario we can go no lynch, you tell the scum we’re in that scenario and then it is less likely to work.”

So idk. I think there exists a scenario where we go no lynch and hope tomorrow starts at 2 vs 1. Idk if we’re in it.

Why wouldn’t we just lynch the wolf then?

juliets wrote: ↑Sat Nov 30, 2019 7:10 pm
Master Radishes wrote: ↑Sat Nov 30, 2019 7:06 pm What if we no lynch and see what happens?
Honestly, this is where I started the day.

What would make this a bad idea?

You suggesting this changes the math.

juliets wrote: ↑Sat Nov 30, 2019 6:59 pm And I am being tugged by her AtE. Would she promise me, knowing what I've been through this week, just to win a game? She would have to be heartless and ruthless.

Are you seriously asking me if scum would try to deceive someone in a game of mafia?

Lady LambdaDelta wrote: ↑Sat Nov 30, 2019 6:33 pm I showed mathematically it is better to lynch scum.

Only based on information you don’t know. If you were town, you wouldn’t know if the other townie was poisoned. If they were, lynching a wolf automatically loses the game for the town.

You don’t give a shit about finding the correct path because you don’t want the correct path.

juliets wrote: ↑Sat Nov 30, 2019 6:51 pm Jackofhearts2005 when I look at LLD's voting and behavior regarding nutella and even me earlier in the game I have a hard time believing she is scum.

It’s process of elimination.

The reason you are here is cause Pawn accidentally got himself modkilled.

WolfJack always has a plan and it doesn’t involve hoping townies get modkilled or letting confirmed townies like Quin and Pawn last like 4 days after they get confirmed.

Confirmed townies lived because kills were randomized. Multiple kills missed because kills were randomized.

[mention]juliets[/mention]

Do you think our best bet is to lynch a wolf or 3P? I think you should be able to say that.

If we think nobody is poisoned (cause commuter) or the wolf is poisoned, we can lynch the wolf, poison tonight doesn’t matter because it’s 2 vs 1 to lynch Radishes tomorrow. Or we could lynch the poisoner and hope the wolf kill misses but that’s sub optimal.

If we think a townie is poisoned, we have to lynch the poisoner and hope that cures the poison. If we lynch the wolf, we go into the night with only one townie and no way to lynch the poisoner tomorrow.

I think. That’s not what I worked out yesterday so I’ll have to check that later.

juliets wrote: ↑Sat Nov 30, 2019 4:36 pm
Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Sat Nov 30, 2019 4:24 pm Sprityo was killed night 7, presumably by the mafia.

But yeah I totally missed that Eva was killed D5, Iaafr was killed D8, 112 was killed D10. I thought Eva was killed D6 so it seemed like an every other day thing.
Oh right I messed that up. Well so much for my theory.

I mean it still comes down to if we think the wolf is more likely to miss a kill tonight or if the serial poisoner is more likely to not kill a townie today.

It also occurs to me that having a 3P cop is a dead giveaway that the 3P is antitown.

It would have been nice to have that thought yesterday.

Sprityo was killed night 7, presumably by the mafia.

But yeah I totally missed that Eva was killed D5, Iaafr was killed D8, 112 was killed D10. I thought Eva was killed D6 so it seemed like an every other day thing.

And it sucks because we could have lynched LLD and then seen the Quin poison and lynched Radishes ftw.

juliets wrote: ↑Sat Nov 30, 2019 2:00 pm Jackofhearts2005 are you assuming that if we lynch the poisoner the poisoner's victim does not die? Don't answer this if it's against the rules.

That's a possibility.

juliets wrote: ↑Sat Nov 30, 2019 2:27 pm
Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Fri Nov 29, 2019 9:21 pm
juliets wrote: ↑Fri Nov 29, 2019 9:02 pm Also, if the LMS can kill every night something like point total must be limiting him or he would have killed every night for awhile. And where did we make assumptions in this thread about how often he could kill?
Two phases ago (the day 112 died and we lynched Colin), I theorized there would be another poison by pointing out poisons were only occurring on even days.

There was a poison yesterday on an odd day.

Ergo my assumption that Radishes was not a serial killer because he couldn’t poison every night was incorrect.

He’s probably been poisoning every night (at least since returning to DL1) and his targets must keep getting lynched or nightkilled.

I’d say he could have been holstering but then he wouldn’t have poisoned Quin. The Quin poison only makes sense from LMS Radishes who must poison.
Jack, why does the Quin poisoning only make sense from LMS Radishes who "must" poison. Are you just saying it proves that the 3D is an LMS because he has started doing it every night? Or is there something else you are saying. I know this seems tangential but I think whether Radishes is a 3D who can win with town or is an LMS is important.

I'm saying that it is LMS Radish or survivor Radish or any other common 3P wincon Radish to not poison every night once he is outed so as to appear like he only can poison every other night, which is the assumption that had been made out loud by several players.

The fact that he killed Quin on a different day than usual (ie poisoned him on a different night than usual) implies that he's not only not restricted to every other night, he can't choose to only poison every other night either.

A 3P that must kill every night is a serial killer.

juliets wrote: ↑Sat Nov 30, 2019 1:54 pm I'm unsure how much I can speculate. It's hard to do given the constraints. Maybe I just speculate to myself.

Yeah, I don’t want reasoning, just a final conclusion.

juliets wrote: ↑Sat Nov 30, 2019 12:40 pm
Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Sat Nov 30, 2019 11:45 am There isn’t a single scummy thing in my iso but LLD is more likely to be town because she self voted and pushed hard on a townie? Really?

It’s a good thing I’m unlynchable (or maybe not cause we’re probably in coin flip territory at best).

The vote thing from Radishes is wrong. If we lynch the wolf today, Radishes wins and the town loses. Of course he’s the right lynch and of course he’s going to push back on whoever says to lynch him. He wins unless we lynch him or the player he poisoned. He’s flat said he’s ignoring mechanics and mechanics are the reason he should be lynched. Mechanics are more likely to save us from Lexi than him. Probably.

Jack, the part I'm not understanding is how "mechanics are more likely to save us from from Lexi than him". I know there is only so much you can say but I'll ask anyway, is there anything else that you can say that might help me understand what you are talking about? Maybe you explained this statement more in your subsequent or prior posts and I'm just having trouble getting it.

Assume both LLD and Radishes are exactly who I think they are. Vanilla wolf. LMS bulletproof poisoner.

Who do you think lynching is more likely to cause a town win. Play it out in your head. Does the poison kill today and if so, who? Does LLD successfully kill tonight?

Just come back with who you think should be lynched between the two of them if you were sure those are the two baddies.

You really think scumJack pushes against lynches on Epi, Colin, Quin and Pawn? I had a poe of 1 player yesterday: LLD and had argued that Quin and Pawn were mechanically confirmed.

Let’s say I’m a wolf and I manage to mislynch LLD yesterday. I’m then living in a world where by my own reads, I am the only player in the poe, the only possible wolf from a mechanical standpoint being Juliets, a universal townread.

Colonialbob would call my wolftell “conducting.” I take control of the thread. We lynch who I want to lynch. I kill who I want to kill. We narrow the poe down and I’m always on the edge of it and I get the lynches I need to win. You can see this in Mass Effect and Shockhead Peter, where I controlled the lynch in the last half of the game. You can see it in my wildcards game in champs from three years ago. You can see me trying to do it in Kirby.

There’s no agenda to my posts here because I’m town. I didn’t mind more than half the non me players being confirmed because I’m town. I pushed hard against mislynches on my townreads that everyone else wanted to lynch because I’m town.

My play makes no sense from a wolf perspective when I’m town. That’s why I’m unlynchable. It’s not magic. It’s not even skill. My townplay is just really obvious and I always want it enough to not be a mislynch.

The whole game rides on a single mechanic that I can’t talk about. Really frustrating.

There isn’t a single scummy thing in my iso but LLD is more likely to be town because she self voted and pushed hard on a townie? Really?

It’s a good thing I’m unlynchable (or maybe not cause we’re probably in coin flip territory at best).

The vote thing from Radishes is wrong. If we lynch the wolf today, Radishes wins and the town loses. Of course he’s the right lynch and of course he’s going to push back on whoever says to lynch him. He wins unless we lynch him or the player he poisoned. He’s flat said he’s ignoring mechanics and mechanics are the reason he should be lynched. Mechanics are more likely to save us from Lexi than him. Probably.

*Radishes, not Pawn. Pawn’s reading the threadbit he’s dead.

[Offtopicish]If this was an HCRealms game, Pawn would come in with a character claim and wincon claim that may or may not be true and then he would have to make a narrative case for why those things are appropriate for the theme and balance of this game and while that overall isn’t as fun as the high level play I enjoy here and on MU, I do miss that sort of thing because I really love the concept of telling stories through gaming. [/Offtopicish]

It’s also why my host posts are self indulgently long and my setups are overly cute.

Lady LambdaDelta wrote: ↑Sat Nov 30, 2019 12:49 am
Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Sat Nov 30, 2019 12:44 am
Lady LambdaDelta wrote: ↑Sat Nov 30, 2019 12:37 am
Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Sat Nov 30, 2019 12:11 am I’ll take things I would love to say but would result in a town loss for 100, 200 and 300, Alex.
Given Juliets role we both know what we are claiming to be,

so I do not know why you are trying to pretend she doesnt know either. She knows her own role as town so she knows what we are trying to claim.

She knows what I did with my role, and she knows when I did it too.
I know Juliets knows the remaining town role.

You don’t know which of us is which town role. If you did, the town would have already lost and nothing I do matters. You don’t and I’m not going to tell you.
I know exactly which town role I am and which one she is.

And you do too, because you are soft claiming mine.

So good luck with that.

What a load.

I haven’t softed shit all game. I pretty much only claim in games that allow claiming if claiming will prevent a town lynch or cause a wolf lynch.

This time you are clearly lying cause Jay isn’t gonna post a mod announcement about my meta.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Sat Nov 30, 2019 12:43 am Reminder that anything which can be construed as a concrete reveal of role information, implicit or explicit, is prohibited. This applies to both honest and dishonest content. Let's ensure this game continues in the spirit it has held to effectively for the majority of play time. If anyone is ever uncertain about what is kosher and what is not, simply send a PM to Sloonei and I. It's always better to check first than to make assumptions if there's any room for doubt. Do not interact with, talk about, or acknowledge this post publicly. Thanks everyone.

Well never mind I guess.

The missed kills are still a dead giveaway even if Juliets hadn’t isoed me on like Day 10 and came up with a townread after seeing my scumgame a bunch of times.

Lady LambdaDelta wrote: ↑Sat Nov 30, 2019 12:37 am
Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Sat Nov 30, 2019 12:11 am I’ll take things I would love to say but would result in a town loss for 100, 200 and 300, Alex.
Given Juliets role we both know what we are claiming to be,

so I do not know why you are trying to pretend she doesnt know either. She knows her own role as town so she knows what we are trying to claim.

She knows what I did with my role, and she knows when I did it too.

I know Juliets knows the remaining town role.

You don’t know which of us is which town role. If you did, the town would have already lost and nothing I do matters. You don’t and I’m not going to tell you.

Actually, there is something I can say here that helps.

Pawn was not allowed to soft watcher. He was the watcher.

Eva was allowed to soft mason. She was not the mason.

Iaafr was allowed to soft double voter. He was not the double voter.

Quin was allowed to soft mason apparently due to the fact that nobody picked up on his hints and he was dying anyway by the time the hosts realized it.

I’m not going to talk about what LLD is hinting because I’m not going to confirm if she guessed which of us is which or not.

The fact that she’s allowed to claim and isn’t dead proves she’s lying.

We’re still lynching Radishes today.

I’ll take things I would love to say but would result in a town loss for 100, 200 and 300, Alex.

[mention]juliets[/mention] if you don’t realize why I’m saying what I’m saying and it makes you doubt me, I’ll be less vague until you get it but we’re not losing this game because the wolf baits me into giving away which of us is which role.

Lady LambdaDelta wrote: ↑Fri Nov 29, 2019 11:25 pm
Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Fri Nov 29, 2019 11:15 pm
Lady LambdaDelta wrote: ↑Fri Nov 29, 2019 10:13 pm Not that I disagree with you on Juliets being town but how is she confirmed town here?

Cannot believe I am asking literal actual scum player this question but
Not fucking telling for raisins.
Okay so you are confirming yourself scum to me, and then confirming Juliets town via that angle.

Thank you.

Juliets, Jack is attempting a mirror of my play that I started doing about 3 game days ago. I think you understand what I am saying.

I think we have this game solved, and we are in a weird spot that...

if the poisoner targetted the commuter, we should lynch the scum.

If the poisoner targetted the scum, we profit more by lyncching poisoner, but if we lynch scum we still have a chance at it tomorrow in 3p.

and if the poisoner targetted the doctor. we lose no matter what.

Which means actually, our best play is lynching the SCUM.

We win in 2/3 possible worlds in that outcome.

Come lynch Jack with me.

This is stupid. I know Juliets’s role cause raisins I’m not going to tell you but it’s obvious to her. Radishes is spewed 3P.

The way today always goes is that both of us “know” the other is the wolf only the evidence shows only one of us would miss like 4 kills if they were the wolf.

Lady LambdaDelta wrote: ↑Fri Nov 29, 2019 10:13 pm Not that I disagree with you on Juliets being town but how is she confirmed town here?

Cannot believe I am asking literal actual scum player this question but

Not fucking telling for raisins.

There’s like asterisks all over that statement but going into it would involve roleclaiming which would be a loss even if it didn’t result in my modkill.

I will say if LLD wasn’t aware who the poisoner is, she might not know who the commuter is which means we can win by lynching Radishes.

I don’t think there’s a way for the town to win by lynching LLD.

Obviously, the town can’t win by lynching a townie either.

Take your time, [mention]juliets[/mention] . You’re confirmed town. Radishes is basically confirmed 3P scum.

You have about 48 hours to decide if you’re going to believe me and vote Radishes or believe LLD and vote Radishes.

And Radishes has 48 hours to explain how the serial poisoner could win with the town without admitting the role he’s talking about is his.

Tfw two of the roles are confirmed and you aren’t allowed to roleclaim.

Lady LambdaDelta wrote: ↑Fri Nov 29, 2019 9:21 pm Given we need to lunch the third party...

Let us examine the third party kills and try and isolate who benefits from them.

Colin was the third party cop and spewed Radishes 3P with his death.

What are the chances there is a wolf, the wolf is LLD and she doesn’t know which of us is the commuter?

Or the chances of there being no wolf at all?

Cause if LLD is the wolf she is basically saying she wasn’t poisoned, which is the third path to victory by lynching Radishes.

The only path to victory that doesn’t involve lynching Radishes is that LLD is the wolf and Radishes is a bulletproof 3P who can poison every day and also win with the town.

juliets wrote: ↑Fri Nov 29, 2019 9:02 pm Also, if the LMS can kill every night something like point total must be limiting him or he would have killed every night for awhile. And where did we make assumptions in this thread about how often he could kill?

Two phases ago (the day 112 died and we lynched Colin), I theorized there would be another poison by pointing out poisons were only occurring on even days.

There was a poison yesterday on an odd day.

Ergo my assumption that Radishes was not a serial killer because he couldn’t poison every night was incorrect.

He’s probably been poisoning every night (at least since returning to DL1) and his targets must keep getting lynched or nightkilled.

I’d say he could have been holstering but then he wouldn’t have poisoned Quin. The Quin poison only makes sense from LMS Radishes who must poison.

juliets wrote: ↑Fri Nov 29, 2019 8:58 pm Jackofhearts2005 what do you mean by "kingmaker territory"?

Like if we lynch LLD, Radishes wins and if we lynch Radishes, LLD wins. Town can’t win but can determine the winner. Kingmaker.

I’m an idiot. Say you have an inactive as the last wolf.

What are the chances of randomizing and hitting the commuter over and over (cause surely the doc is out of shots)? Slim.

What about hitting the commuter and the serial killer who is bulletproof and who killed one of your teammates and has been spewed not wolf for awhile, randomly or otherwise? Much much higher.

Wolf kills can't simply have been stopped by the mechanics we know about or by scum LLD not submitting kills. If Jay hadn't flat said the wolf kill would be randomized after Mac died, I'd assume there was no wolf team.

I'm assuming Quin (who did not have the most votes at the time) died to poison, which implies even day (odd night, I guess) poison is NOT Radish's power as we previously suspected. Getting to kill more than every other night and killing multiple townies implies Radishes is LMS.

So we probably moved into kingmaker territory unless Radishes poisoned LLD.

Yeah, I'm not rolehinting or roleclaiming. It's against the rules.

juliets wrote: ↑Wed Nov 27, 2019 4:43 pm Guys I'm at the hospital with dad who is in critical condition. Don't know when I'll be home.

I'm so sorry, Juliets.

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