The Syndicate

We have 3 people I want to lynch and only 2 votes

(Please don't actually let it rand)

[VOTE: MP] aubergine LET IT RAND!

hyena you butt, you ruined it

nutella wrote: ↑Thu Apr 23, 2020 8:27 pm

Hyena wrote: ↑Thu Apr 23, 2020 8:18 pm

Master Radishes wrote: ↑Tue Apr 21, 2020 8:04 am This post is mainly for reference (mine if no one else’s):

With just a few minutes left, MP7 & Nute created a 4/4/4 split:

MR – DDL, speed, Hyena, Nook
Nook – LC, sig, 112, nutella
Sig – juliets, TSP, Jack, MP7

(To the best of my knowledge those votes are in chronological order too.)

Wait a sec. I forgot about Nook's wagon. Sig and 112 flipped town. If Nook is town, then at least one of Nute and LC are probably scum. Unless, somehow the wagon is pure?

I think the wagon is pure. Why do you think it can't be?

If it is, and the MR wagon is also pure, then EVERY SINGLE ACTIVE SCUM (minus MR) jumped on sig. Do you think that likely? (I've actually realized a possible answer but want to see your response)

juliets wrote: ↑Thu Apr 23, 2020 8:22 pm Guys, honestly, read Nutella's response to my suspicion of her. Does she sound like scum there? I don't think so.

Because meta?

The response itself didn't make much of an impression on me.

Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Thu Apr 23, 2020 8:15 pm

speedchuck wrote: ↑Thu Apr 23, 2020 8:13 pm

Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Thu Apr 23, 2020 8:11 pm

nutella wrote: ↑Thu Apr 23, 2020 7:52 pm

Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Thu Apr 23, 2020 7:43 pm
I do think Sloonei is more likely a wolf than Juliets if Nutella is town so there’s that.

How so??


Generally I am thinking it's less and less likely that Sloonei is scum here. Especially from his latest post. I don't think he would just resign like that as scum after MR's death, unless his teammate is really deep.

Cause your case on Juliets isn’t convincing.

I'm not following you here.

Like the case on Juliets is so unconvincing, it doesn’t even move her below the null slot that is Sloonei.

Oh.

Hard disagree.

Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Thu Apr 23, 2020 8:11 pm

nutella wrote: ↑Thu Apr 23, 2020 7:52 pm

Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Thu Apr 23, 2020 7:43 pm
I do think Sloonei is more likely a wolf than Juliets if Nutella is town so there’s that.

How so??


Generally I am thinking it's less and less likely that Sloonei is scum here. Especially from his latest post. I don't think he would just resign like that as scum after MR's death, unless his teammate is really deep.

Cause your case on Juliets isn’t convincing.

I'm not following you here.

juliets wrote: ↑Thu Apr 23, 2020 8:10 pm

Hyena wrote: ↑Thu Apr 23, 2020 8:05 pm

speedchuck wrote: ↑Thu Apr 23, 2020 8:01 pm 2:50 left. We need to start consolidating. I've outlined who my favorites for the lynch are, and I'm leaning toward nutella between the three. If we actively use the secret vote on a public figure, I have to figure out who to NOT lynch, which is actually harder.

[VOTE: nutella] aubergine

linki: hrm

I think Nutella is town, but I think I'd be okay with voting them if we also get rid of Jules. I don't think I want to go with Jack's suggestion of Sloonei anymore.

What sense does it make to vote nutella if you think she's town?

That's my vote right there, not hyenas.

MR back and forths with nutella a good bit. Scumreads her several times, but not sure how hard he pushed on that. The second exchange above, the one Hyena pointed out, is genuinely awkward.

Master Radishes wrote: ↑Mon Apr 20, 2020 1:13 pm

nutella wrote: ↑Mon Apr 20, 2020 1:10 pm Hi I'm nutella and I hate no-poster policy lynches

Hi everyone, my name is MR, and it's been three years since I policy lynched a no poster.

Master Radishes wrote: ↑Mon Apr 20, 2020 1:23 pm

nutella wrote: ↑Mon Apr 20, 2020 1:18 pm

Master Radishes wrote: ↑Mon Apr 20, 2020 1:17 pm

nutella wrote: ↑Mon Apr 20, 2020 1:14 pm Like come on guys, that slot is probabilistically more likely town than not, whereas we have thread content to analyze for all other slots that may help us determine that someone has more likelihood to be scum. Not to get mathy about it but it's just all around a dumb thing to do to lynch that slot. Allow me to say it -- it's -EV.

How are you with odds, Ms Mathy?

As in: what are the odds one of PC's voters is scum?

I don't even know how many scum there are, so I couldn't tell you.

I didn't expect a literal answer. I just meant that it would be a scummy thing do to hop on a 0 poster to 'prompt' them, if they didn't know where else to safely land right now.

Master Radishes wrote: ↑Mon Apr 20, 2020 6:28 pm

NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Mon Apr 20, 2020 6:23 pm Fuck it let’s kill nutella?

Just thinking this. Pushy case on M and possibly pocketing me.

[VOTE: Nutella] aubergine

Master Radishes wrote: ↑Tue Apr 21, 2020 12:47 pm

nutella wrote: ↑Tue Apr 21, 2020 12:40 pm Pop quiz!

Jack is mafia. Who can tell me why?

Don't know, but from my limited meta I'm feeling he sounds a bit like Inception Jack lately.

Master Radishes wrote: ↑Tue Apr 21, 2020 1:03 pm

Master Radishes wrote: ↑Tue Apr 21, 2020 8:04 am This post is mainly for reference (mine if no one else’s):

With just a few minutes left, MP7 & Nute created a 4/4/4 split:

MR – DDL, speed, Hyena, Nook
Nook – LC, sig, 112, nutella
Sig – juliets, TSP, Jack, MP7

(To the best of my knowledge those votes are in chronological order too.)

My townleans are spread out across the wagons. That suggests to me the wolves are too.

Tied votes are more often than not v/v, although I don't know how a 3-way tie factors into that. (I know it wasn't an actual tied vote, but Nook's final vote to self-pres was an obvious enough switch.) I'm not going to argue with anyone about that assertion about tied votes - disagree if you want, but that's an observation from many games of experience.

If Nook is scum, his scum buddies are more likely on me and Sig, as it would be quite risky to vote for a teammate in such a close vote (and most of these votes occured in the final hours, when it was clear enough that Nook was a potential wagon). I'm looking at TSP and Jack on Sig, and DDL and Hyena on me. The others had some signs of progression or, in MP7's case, was bouncing around like a rubber ball already. If anyone is a wolf on scumNook's wagon, I guess it'd be LC or 112, but that doesn't jive with my reads on them.

If Nook is town, the scum may be more evenly spread (although I won't forget that last game they piled up on me when I was mislynched, so that's not a hard and fast rule). Regardless, I haven't changed my mind on LC or 112, so that would mean Nutella would be the scum voter in this case, particularly since she didn't mind following MP7's directions to vote there. I see no reason that doesn't fit. But I'd still look at TSP/Jack and DDL/Hyena as sig was clearly a safe landing spot for a scum vote, and I am as well.


tl;dr regardless of Nook's alignment, I plan to ISO TSP, Jack, DDL, and Hyena first and foremost. The other votes felt natural or were clearly built up to.

These may not be in order.

2:50 left. We need to start consolidating. I've outlined who my favorites for the lynch are, and I'm leaning toward nutella between the three. If we actively use the secret vote on a public figure, I have to figure out who to NOT lynch, which is actually harder.

[VOTE: nutella] aubergine

linki: hrm

Yeah I just can't reconcile Nutella and MP being aligned with some things they've done, even if a lot of buddying/pocketing stuff has happened.

Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Thu Apr 23, 2020 7:56 pm

speedchuck wrote: ↑Thu Apr 23, 2020 5:21 pm Okay so jack voted sig, apparently. I was one of the MR voters, and I'm not on my own readlist. Sorry for the confusion.

Anywho.

Nanook voted Sig for self Prez. I suspect everyone else who voted Sig except Jack.
Why DID you vote Sig, Jack?

Cause I townread Tony and MP and didn’t have time to actually catch up.

Yeah you were behind d1

nutella wrote: ↑Thu Apr 23, 2020 6:43 pm

Long Con wrote: ↑Mon Apr 20, 2020 12:21 am Nanook, Tony, nutella, based on your own role card, what alignment do you think Alex Jones would have?

and this one too speedchuck, the fact that he was the one who brought up this point makes me think his perspective on this was pure. I think the later statement I quoted above really sealed it for me though. Thinking about it again and now knowing MR's mafia role, I suppose he could have been coming from the perspective of knowing that the scum roles were not necessarily really "bad" and figured there might be town roles that aren't totally "good" and did this in hopes of getting some credit, but that seems far fetched even for LC imo.

Fair enough.

I'm not sure how relevant the whole thing it, but it's a good point.
Lc looks good in general, honestly, other than the pings I stated.

nutella wrote: ↑Thu Apr 23, 2020 6:40 pm

speedchuck wrote: ↑Thu Apr 23, 2020 5:55 pm

nutella wrote: ↑Thu Apr 23, 2020 5:49 pm I looked into LC earlier -- I was also thinking that his MR interactions didn't look great, but then I saw that one post of his during the flavor-alignment discussion that I just could never see coming from non-town. Maybe I shouldn't put as much stock in that as I am though.

Please requote it. I have the memory of a koala.

Long Con wrote: ↑Tue Apr 21, 2020 12:22 pm

Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Tue Apr 21, 2020 9:23 am

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Tue Apr 21, 2020 3:19 am I think your argument can be boiled down to “Option 2 seems useless but at least pro-town” which is probably wrong on at least one side

I mean, suppose Donald Trump is mafia. Hard to say forcing someone to do a Donald Trump impression isn't protown.

It's just the implication that if the mafia was like Trump, VInce McMahon, Kelly Loeffler, etc, that option would be too good so things aren't that easy.

Idk. There should be some sort of theme to the scum team, I'd imagine.

My own role is one that I would immediately assume is an evil role, but I'm a civilian. That's why I thought that the teams are probably divided among infected and uninfected, or something.

Mmm that's alright I guess. Thanks.

Long Con wrote: ↑Thu Apr 23, 2020 5:51 pm

speedchuck wrote: ↑Thu Apr 23, 2020 5:01 pm

Long Con wrote: ↑Thu Apr 23, 2020 4:05 pm I will shoot Sloonei if that's the consensus. He might be bad. He might have bowed back out due to the extra pressures of being bad. He might be Civ, and the secret votes will be unanimous. We can't let him get to Final 3 either way, right?

Shoot?

Responding to this:

DrWilgy wrote: ↑Thu Apr 23, 2020 3:53 pm Fair, do we have a solid list of who all is for the Sloonei shot and have any other names been suggested (other than me of course)?

nutella wrote: ↑Thu Apr 23, 2020 5:49 pm I looked into LC earlier -- I was also thinking that his MR interactions didn't look great, but then I saw that one post of his during the flavor-alignment discussion that I just could never see coming from non-town. Maybe I shouldn't put as much stock in that as I am though.

Please requote it. I have the memory of a koala.

I won't have a whole lot more time to play today, but I know where I'm leaning. I'd like Long Con addressed soon (though we might not have time today), and I'd prefer some responses to the newer things I've mentioned in my above post.

Okay so jack voted sig, apparently. I was one of the MR voters, and I'm not on my own readlist. Sorry for the confusion.

Anywho.

Nanook voted Sig for self Prez. I suspect everyone else who voted Sig except Jack.
Why DID you vote Sig, Jack?

Jackofhearts2005 - almost mechanically confirmed as town (not 100%), mind-melding, I'm happy with resting on this townread

Dragon D. Luffy - went heavy after MR on D1, to the point that it endangered him with some people defending MR. Top town boy.

Hyena - has been playing fast and loose all game, similar to the way 112 was playing. A D1 vote on MR, campaigning for Nanook to join him. Doesn't post like he has anything to hide.

NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME - I don't really have any reason to lynch Nanook anymore. Ironically, he's addressed most of my grievances toward his tone and action by aggressively pursuing me.

Dr. Wilgy - fakeslip? I wouldn't put too much credence in that, but I've got a slight townread there regardless. Posting stream-of-consciousness and still implicating scum with it is pretty townly.

TonyStarkPrime - not lynching today, he's not really here and is not a top suspect, we can solve him later, townread when we left him. Note that MR voted Tony D1, an off-wagon vote.


Long Con - on second look does not look good with Master Radishes in his own interactions. ISO him and look for 'radish' and 'MR'. I townread LC otherwise, but he's recently proved how slippery he can be. I remember MR did some weird stuff on his side of the reaction, townreading LC while keeping options open. But was he keeping options open to push LC or bus LC?

juliets - has been gut pinging me all game, and her MR interactions don't look good. That hasn't really progressed any since nutella first made the case. I don't feel really strong about it, but it's not a bad case.

MPlus7 - As I said in a post a bit ago, he's voting based on who he trusts and on saving nutella. Not on scumreads, and not even based on a POE of townreads. It's not hunting, whatever it is. Plus there was the sig lynch mess... and yeah, I still have a scumread here. Don't care what the post count is.

nutella - I'm not going to say anything here that hasn't been said. Nutella's interactions with nanook look like pocketing, with MP look like performance, and her reaction to the Jack confirm / MR kill are less than inspiring. Her reads don't follow any conventional nutella meta, much as she likes to explain that away, and I didn't like the way she recently backed off nutella and decided that suddenly she could be wrong about everything after she's been right about everything for 20 hours since MR's death. She is posting a lot though, and if she has an agenda it's not a very good one. I tinfoil on this.

Sloonei - Good candidate for secret lynch, not much to say

My POE is too big, but luckily a lynch or two will narrow it down tremendously. No way are Juliets and Nutella scum together.
Note that the MR voters are all three on top of my readlist. That just happened, by accident. And the sig voters are...

...

Another post incoming.

Summary post of my reads, with a bunch of retread and some new stuff, incoming.

Vig slip?

Scum slip?

Freudian slip?

Pink slip?

Long Con wrote: ↑Thu Apr 23, 2020 4:05 pm I will shoot Sloonei if that's the consensus. He might be bad. He might have bowed back out due to the extra pressures of being bad. He might be Civ, and the secret votes will be unanimous. We can't let him get to Final 3 either way, right?

Shoot?

I especially want Jack to answer because I've been mindmelding with him but not as stubbornly, and this way I can devil's advocate him with my second-guessing

I know it seems like I'm going back and checking myself a lot but I don't know how many times I've tunneled nutella when we were both town

Some questions to consider:

If nutella is scum, would she be as up-front-and-center as she is now? Kinda powerwolfing if so, even if she's suspected.

If MP is town (regardless of nutella's alignment) would he be voting only based on who he can save and who he trusts rather than, IDK, actually having reads of his own?

Wilgy does derpy things, but not usually calculated derpy things :P

I'm leaning toward using my secret vote for sloonei, but could be convinced to effin devestate the entire nutella vs Juliets argument. We should probably figure out secret vote stuff ahead of time.

DrWilgy wrote: ↑Thu Apr 23, 2020 3:37 pm Fuck yeah, when did that happen?

20 hours ago or so.

Did you have any specific reason to think nutella and MR were aligned, or were you just reading them scum independently?

DrWilgy wrote: ↑Thu Apr 23, 2020 3:33 pm OH! here's another question. Who has reasons for Mr Master Radish to be civ?

MR got vigged. He was scum.

NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Thu Apr 23, 2020 2:51 pm

speedchuck wrote: ↑Thu Apr 23, 2020 2:38 pm @NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME It feels like I need to address your grievance or you're going to tunnel me for the rest of the game.

Please point me to where I ignored evidence of your towniness and I'll talk about it. Don't have time to find it myself.

As far as I can tell your initial scumread of me consisted of “I have trouble SRing townies when I’m Mafia, so nanook does too.” This has been refuted, by myself and others. You still hang on to the scumread without updating it.

To me this reads like you having a very similar issue to the one you accused me of, struggling to find other townies to SR.

There was a bit more to my intitial scumread of you, mostly gut. The refutation brought you up from a scumread to a slightly-south-of-null-read. Right now I have you as a light townread. I just haven't 'updated' anything. The fact that I'm not pursuing you (and that I preferred an MR lynch D1 to yours) was enough, IMO.

I'm not struggling at all to 'find scumreads' this game. I currently have, even with you as town, three people I actively scumread (though they aren't aligned with one another) and a couple of lurkers.

[mention]NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME[/mention] It feels like I need to address your grievance or you're going to tunnel me for the rest of the game.

Please point me to where I ignored evidence of your towniness and I'll talk about it. Don't have time to find it myself.

Or, at least, Juliets on D1 didn't make many firm posts. The previous post was not meant to be a slight on you, Juliets.

If [mention]nutella[/mention] wants to strengthen her case on Juliets/MasterRadish, she'd compare the little they said about each other to the little they said about everyone else.

Juliets hasn't made many firm posts against or for people this game, that I recall anyway. MR might be the same. Who's to say that this method doesn't condemn half the playerlist? It was only D1, after all. These things work better on later days.

(But you can go for it if you want to investigate other ISOs. I won't have time today. My weekends are busy, and COVID shifted my work schedule weirdly.)

Yeah I'd lynch nutella now.

Alright, I'm going to take a shower and put my glasses on.

I think I've missed some post in my sporadic catch-up but the main point is that Jack's take is good. Nutella or Juliets are scum, and not both. Juliets defensive post a page or two back was full of what I'd consider AtE. "I wouldn't have signed up if I knew the end time" "You've been wrong before, you desire a town lynch" etc.
Juliets did make a point just after this that DDL is almost definitely town for coming down hard on MR. I think I like that and agree with it, though if nutella is scum I'd be worried about a pre-planned bus. It's not like DDL has gone after much of anyone else.

But on the other side of things, nutella's posts about 'I am definitely right this time so right I don't need to second guess myself' are pingy, especially with her usual predisposition toward waffling.

I probably scumread Juliets more between the two, though, as I trust myself more there. I don't know how many times I've come at nutella when we've both been town.

Jury's out on nanook and MP until I can refresh myself.

I'm beginning to think Nanook is town just because he keeps blindly self-implicating over the wagonomics.

NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Thu Apr 23, 2020 1:30 am I mean I get what you’re saying but I think normal logic may not entirely apply given that radishes wasn’t even around to self prez and we had/have two non entities. Seems entirely possible that in a 3 scum world a more active partner would feel compelled to vote radishes, especially if one of the non entities is mafia, yeah?

Like I’m not pushing that world but I think it’s entirely plausible.

... says the guy who self-prezzed on MR

nutella wrote: ↑Thu Apr 23, 2020 1:23 am Not to get all hubrisy with my reads again but I really think I'm right lol. I look at the player list and feel like I have legitimately good reasons to believe most of them are town to the point that I think if we lynch juliets and the correct one of wilgy/sloonei, that's just game over we win. I keep wanting to second guess that because i really shouldn't be so confident in all the town reasons after what happened with MR, but most of them are based on much more substantial evidence now and I'm left with an easy POE. It can really be that simple sometimes, right?

Day flippin' 2: "Welp, almost everyone is town, let's just lynch lurkers I guess. I'm pretty sure all my townreads are right despite the debacle earlier and there's no reason to waffle on them."

NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Thu Apr 23, 2020 1:22 am Idk why mafia has to be on Sig wagon over mine? Both were close to as viable IIRC.

Maybe that’s my bias of TRing more people on Sig than me tho

Mafia had to go all the way to Sig or they'd still be on a teammate wagon. Obviously.

(I'm sorta kidding here. I have a lot of work to do before I finalize my reads today.)

nutella wrote: ↑Thu Apr 23, 2020 12:58 am I'm looking forward to speedchuck coming back in the morning to all this. I think it's like 50/50 whether he fully agrees with me on juliets or fully decides I'm scum.

Why y'all gotta do this when I'm asleep.

nutella wrote: ↑Thu Apr 23, 2020 12:39 am Why do you think my juliets push is opportunistic? Nobody else even talked about her before I did. It's an original case.

Okay admittedly I didn't have the best case but gutttt

I can't help it. I'm being pulled along by my guts.

There's a mental image for you.

I still suspect Juliets even if she was the only one to explain her Sig vote.

I hope nobody has put in their unchangeable private votes yet. We need a consensus target for that by... IDK, maybe 6 hours before EOD?

It doesn't fit together that neatly guys. Don't forget nanook's position here, and that MP comes from a time when the syndicate had a tie fetish even more than it does now.

I want to hear MP/Nanook combos. If MP is scum, is nanook? If nanook is scum, is MP? Can they be scum together? What would the thought process be?

MP scum, nanook town - why would MP chance voting for sig when nanook was probably the easier lynch at the time?
MP town, nanook scum - I mean yeah, nanook's going to self-preserve, so why did we ever thing the tie would work. Why would a 3-way tie ever work?
Both scum - would they really chance the reveal of having both of them pile onto sig?

Which world looks most likely to you?

And sorry Hyena, I'm going to ignore things about MP being excited/panicked at EOD1. That could just as easily be town with a big decision to make and a lot of excitement/investment into the game.

Let's fully analyse this and not 'Gotcha' MP just yet. We have time.

Please research the vote order someone, it's important and I ain't got time.

Master Radishes
3 Voters: Dragon D. Luffy, speedchuck, Hyena

NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME
4 Voters: Long Con, sig, 112, nutella

sig
5 Voters: NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME, juliets, M Plus 7, Jackofhearts2005, TonyStarkPrime

TonyStarkPrime
1 Voter: Master Radishes

OBSERVE~!

There was a save on Sig at the end of the game, and I think MP and Nanook need to help answer for it.
Why? How do I know it was coordinated, and not a random lynch?

Because MR wasn't even worried enough to self-preserve. (If Nanook is scum, it makes self-preserving more dicey as well)

But IDK what the order of the votes were and my wife wants me to help in the kitchen, so discuss please. Hyena looks bloody great IMO. 2 confirmed town voting for Nanook here. At least 1 or 2 scum on Sig, especially if Nanook is bad.

juliets wrote: ↑Wed Apr 22, 2020 7:07 pm Made a deal with Hyena to self preserve by voting for MR. It's not AI, he could have done that good or bad but I can't hold that against him. He then voted sig to self preserve and avoid a tie, I think that was in the last minutes.

BTW I know you're talking about nanook but this was a really good-looking move for Hyena.

We need to do EOD vote analysis