The Syndicate

So we'd need gwil+Kyle on that, then kenway could target me and I could target another suspect to lock another set down (we don't really need kenway but I'm assuming people don't trust me enough to let me have free range over my action)

And kites can protect from nutella's 2nd

What could go wrong

Kylemii wrote: ↑Thu Mar 15, 2018 10:25 am you're right. civNutella could have opened up the gates by misdirecting kites independently of a mafsig chosing to kill sprityo.

however, both nut and sig being mafia at once seems unlikely to me since Nutella revealing that she MDed kites, regardless of whether that was a truth or a lie only serves to re-implicste both her and sig, without any real benefit

Yes, I agree with that (I think I made a similar comment earlier).

Kites wrote: ↑Thu Mar 15, 2018 1:41 am

nutella wrote: ↑Wed Mar 14, 2018 11:44 pm I misdirected kites

then you should have failed because you can’t target me
sniper is a buffed version of archer so basically I still have the same powers, but
a) the kill chance increase of my 1st power was increased
b) i can’t be targeted by fliers when I’m targeting someone with my 2nd power which is what I did

so are you the other scum who didn’t kill sprityo

[mention]Kylemii[/mention] for reference

Kylemii wrote: ↑Thu Mar 15, 2018 10:10 am alright

the way i see it only 5 players could have done the murder last night.

cbob could only have done it if kenway is his partner

sig could only have done it if Nutella is his partner. or if Nutella isn't his partner? I'm a little confused about the implications of Nutella possibly lying about her target, but whether or not Nutella lied effects sig's ability to have killed. also to be considered, Nutella lying about a kite target would only implicate her and sig when they would have both been cleared so probably not w/w. sorry rambling

then we have rdw, kenway, and nutella

If Kites is telling the truth (he can't be targeted by fliers) then Sig nor nutella could've made the kill full stop.

But nutella could've enabled myself or a foot to make the kill, if she MD'd Kenway or gwil respectively.

Kylemii wrote: ↑Thu Mar 15, 2018 9:31 am

colonialbob wrote: ↑Thu Mar 15, 2018 9:30 am Who's most likely to have killed sprit? I think that's the best way to vote this phase.

why is that the best way to vote?

Well this is assuming we can narrow that down to like 2 or 3 people, but it's the best way to vote because it gives you the best chance of catching mafia.

Based on the assumption Kites and gwil are town (which I think is a solid one):

Nut/Sig couldn't have killed sprit. Kites blocked fliers, and is immune to flier targeting, so he's locked in. (Sidenote, the discrepancy between nutella's reported night action and kites has me actually suspecting her for basically the first time all game)

Gwil doctored sprit, so the killer couldn't have been on foot or he was misdirected. Either nutella MD'd gwil, or Kenway, myself, or RDW made the kill.

Option 1: nutella MDs gwil - I don't think there's any remaining MDs in the game other than her and I, and I didn't MD last night. So either she's lying about her target (and thus presumably mafia), or she failed but didn't mention it?

Option 2: one of Kenway, me, RDW are the killer. Kenway used his power on me, so if he's town (and wasn't MD'd) neither of us could make the kill. That leaves RDW. If Kenway is mafia, he could've made the kill and lied about targeting me, meaning there could be an unknown teammate out there.

So I guess voting this way depends on your trust of Kenway and how likely you think nutella a) is mafia and b) targeted gwil.

[mention]rundontwalk[/mention] what did you do last night?

Who's most likely to have killed sprit? I think that's the best way to vote this phase.

Also - the Don hand-picked their team. We've seen two RYMers and Quin. Do these choices tell us anything about the likely remaining mafia?

[mention]Kylemii[/mention] what do you think about the argument that if nutella was mafia they wouldn't habe killed rabbit8 n1 because mafia would've been safe from the Pegasus kill, and perhaps could've gotten it to fire against town?

(Not my argument originally, I don't remember who brought it up after rabbit died, but I find it reasonably compelling)

Another possibility: mafia nutella actually MD'd gwil and a footie killed Sprit. Don't feel like the likelihood of that is very high since gwil didn't reveal his doctor until today, but it's possible.

Kylemii wrote: ↑Thu Mar 15, 2018 12:05 am

Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Thu Mar 15, 2018 12:04 am

colonialbob wrote: ↑Wed Mar 14, 2018 11:56 pm

Kylemii wrote: ↑Wed Mar 14, 2018 11:55 pm not "host kills" you know what i mean. regular murder kills

Jack is the murderer scumslip confirmed

Remember that one time this actually happened? Tbf JKLantern did it first and better than me.

tell the story!!! (:

Kyle nooo
Kyle we need to catch mafia

Kylemii wrote: ↑Wed Mar 14, 2018 11:55 pm not "host kills" you know what i mean. regular murder kills

Jack is the murderer scumslip confirmed

[mention]sig[/mention] [mention]speedchuck[/mention] [mention]Kylemii[/mention] the entry for mage/sage sure seems to imply they're like any other action:

"Mage
Anima wielding foot soldier known for his versatility and armor piercing.
Fire - Each night, you may target another player and reverse their action. A nightkill will become a doctor, a guide will become a block, a track will become a reverse track, etc.
Promotes to Sage or Mage Knight"

nutella wrote: ↑Wed Mar 14, 2018 11:44 pm I misdirected kites

Argh PoE broken

Now you or Sig could be mafia

Hmm actually it would have to be you *and* Sig for it to make any sense

Or you're bad and trying to frame Sig I guess?

Meh still buy you as town, just means Sig is a legit suspect to me.

Kylemii wrote: ↑Wed Mar 14, 2018 11:32 pm

6) All players have one or more weapons. If you have multiple weapons, you must choose one each night. Swords > axes > lances > swords. Anima magic > light magic > dark magic > anima magic. If you use a weapon to target a player with a weapon yours beats, you have a 25% chance to self guide (be unblockable and unmisdirectable). If you use a weapon to target a player with a weapon that beats yours, you have a 25% chance to fail. If you miss your night action and have multiple weapons, you will use the same weapons you used last night. IIf you miss your night one action, your weapon choice will be randomized.

hey has everyone been mindful of the weapon triangle? this could explain some of the failed powers.

Yes, except the one night I decided to target ID because I was trying to get my action in before the deadline and forgot about it

speedchuck wrote: ↑Wed Mar 14, 2018 9:40 pm Please speak up and claim actions Vigs

I mean is there a reason for anybody to not claim actions?

sig wrote: ↑Wed Mar 14, 2018 9:47 pm [VOTE: Kenway] aubergine

I still think nutella could be mafia and the case on bob is compelling, however Kenway is my number one pick for tonight.

speedchuck wrote: ↑Wed Mar 14, 2018 12:36 pm RDW, Kenway, and Bob all have horses.

From what I'm gathering, either Kenway and Bob are scum together, RDW is scum with someone, or a LOT of redirecting might have happened.

[mention]Kites[/mention] [mention]nutella[/mention] please respond to this

Nutella your action from last night would be very helpful

Kites wrote: ↑Wed Mar 14, 2018 4:24 pm there are no town/mafia counters cos the roles were drafted, the game was balanced with the secret powers given afterwards, me thinks

Yes, and also I'm pretty sure he initially claimed the second life was gotten on upgrade, not from the beginning, while ID always had two lives, so even internally his logic doesn't work.

Kylemii wrote: ↑Wed Mar 14, 2018 3:38 pm alright so assuming gwilikers and kites are telling the truth about their targets and weren't misdirected, only a horseperson could have killed sprityo last night right? and if kenway is telling the truth about reversing cbob (and also wasn't misdirected) then that leaves kenway and rdw as potential killers, correct? are there any other horses?

If Kenway is telling the truth then kenway didn't kill anybody either and RDW is the only possibility

speedchuck wrote: ↑Wed Mar 14, 2018 12:36 pm RDW, Kenway, and Bob all have horses.

From what I'm gathering, either Kenway and Bob are scum together, RDW is scum with someone, or a LOT of redirecting might have happened.

I think that's a pretty good summary.

It's also possible (mechanically) that RDW and I are scum together and he bodyguarded me to protect me from the mage, which I *think* would've worked?

I didn't MD last night. Are there any other MD powers besides nutella?

Kites wrote: ↑Wed Mar 14, 2018 12:32 pm bob didn’t remind us he has a horse and tries to distract cos he killed sprityo

Except kenway targeted me last night.

[mention]nutella[/mention] who was your target last night? (Assuming you still misdirect, right?)

gwilikers6 wrote: ↑Wed Mar 14, 2018 11:39 am I believe Kenway also has a horse. But rdw is the more likely of the two I’d say.

[VOTE: rdw ] aubergine

nutella wrote: ↑Wed Mar 14, 2018 11:26 am

colonialbob wrote: ↑Wed Mar 14, 2018 11:03 am

Kites wrote: ↑Wed Mar 14, 2018 10:47 am process of elimination
[VOTE: colonialbob] aubergine

have at it

Do you believe Kenway is mafia?

does your alignment somehow depend on kenway's? what did I miss

anyway yeah I'm POEing cbob and... rdw I guess, or maaaayyybe sig but that feels less likely

[VOTE: cbob] aubergine

Kenway targeted me last night, swapping my power, so if I made the kill it wouldn't have worked.

I could still be mafia, but I didn't make the kill last night, so I'm a bad choice for today. (Same with you and sig)

rundontwalk wrote: ↑Wed Mar 14, 2018 10:48 am

colonialbob wrote: ↑Wed Mar 14, 2018 9:36 am

rundontwalk wrote: ↑Wed Mar 14, 2018 9:25 am [VOTE: gwilikers] aubergine

Reasoning please

Since like the first day Ive thought he could be wildcard scum. Just a hunch really but if I was scum I'd want to fake claim his role. And it's convenient his role didn't work when iron dwarf was on chopping block

Fake claim? You mean his Kites result?

Kites wrote: ↑Wed Mar 14, 2018 10:47 am process of elimination
[VOTE: colonialbob] aubergine

have at it

Do you believe Kenway is mafia?

rundontwalk wrote: ↑Wed Mar 14, 2018 9:25 am [VOTE: gwilikers] aubergine

Reasoning please

Kylemii wrote: ↑Wed Mar 14, 2018 2:49 am there are only two mafia left and only so many players who could even possibly be mafia based on mechanics and shit

this game is absolutely solvable by process of elimination at this point, i think

unless my math is wrong, we have 3 chances to get our next mafia lynch (unless speedchuck is mafia in which case we only have 2 chances)

if we can narrow down our communal suspect list to 3 most likely scum players then that would go a huge distance towards a victory

Strictly mechanically:

If gwilikers is town, Kites is town. If Kites is town, neither Sig nor nutella made the kill last night (doesn't prove they aren't mafia but is a point in their favor).

If Kenway is town, I didn't make the kill last night (same as above).

Any other mechanical clears?

sig wrote: ↑Tue Mar 13, 2018 11:13 pm Out of nine players you named five. Also why not nutella? Tell me why you think she's a civ.

Go look at the voting trains. I've been saying this since yesterday.

So mafia is either gwilikers & kites or 2 of rdw/speedunya/sig, I think?

I guess mafia gwil could have cleared townie kites for cred but eh.

sig wrote: ↑Tue Mar 13, 2018 9:10 pm So shall we lynch nutella?

err, no?

Kenway wrote: ↑Mon Mar 12, 2018 9:40 pm

sig wrote: ↑Mon Mar 12, 2018 1:31 pm

sprityo wrote: ↑Mon Mar 12, 2018 11:37 am Another observation. Everyone gushes that speedunya is town. yet he's still alive

while every single other town/townish player has been killed

Kites, Kenway, Speeduyna, and perhaps nutella is whom I'm looking at.

Dunya had a very strong early game, but I do feel like Speed is coasting a bit more.
Kenway I don't like him not being in BTSC.

My tinfoil scum read is still rdw.

Don't worry, got promoted. I have a vig and I'm using it on you tonight. Hasta la vista, siggy!

Please see my post at Sig below.

colonialbob wrote: ↑Mon Mar 12, 2018 1:43 pm

gwilikers6 wrote: ↑Mon Mar 12, 2018 1:27 pm We’ve lynched scum 4 days in a row technically. I think we’re doing well for ourselves. I don’t trust a vig kill from someone I don’t have a strong town read on getting in the mix. Plus you said you have a higher success rate now anyway. I believe you already got a kill through when I didn’t let you through so try again if you really feel strongly about it.

8 town, 2 mafia.

Worst case, no vig:
Town death tonight
Town lynch d9
Town kill n9
Town lynch d10
Town kill n11
LYLO d11

Worst case w/ vig:
2x town death tonight
Town lynch d9
2x town death n9
LYLO d10

Or

2x town death tonight
Town lynch d9
Town death n9
MYLO d10

[mention]sig[/mention] Why should we let you through?

gwilikers6 wrote: ↑Mon Mar 12, 2018 1:27 pm We’ve lynched scum 4 days in a row technically. I think we’re doing well for ourselves. I don’t trust a vig kill from someone I don’t have a strong town read on getting in the mix. Plus you said you have a higher success rate now anyway. I believe you already got a kill through when I didn’t let you through so try again if you really feel strongly about it.

8 town, 2 mafia.

Worst case, no vig:
Town death tonight
Town lynch d9
Town kill n9
Town lynch d10
Town kill n11
LYLO d11

Worst case w/ vig:
2x town death tonight
Town lynch d9
2x town death n9
LYLO d10

Or

2x town death tonight
Town lynch d9
Town death n9
MYLO d10

[mention]sig[/mention] Why should we let you through?

rundontwalk wrote: ↑Mon Mar 12, 2018 12:40 pm I told y'all Iron Dwarf was Mafia

You also said basically every person in the thread was mafia so

nutella wrote: ↑Mon Mar 12, 2018 11:44 am nice result!! looks like I made the right choice, that was stressful. and I still feel iffy about bob considering the way he wanted to lynch kenway but hopped on the ID bandwagon when it became clear it was his only option

Kites wrote: ↑Mon Mar 12, 2018 8:26 am reading dwarf’s ISO I want to lynch nutella next

y tho

Point of order I hopped on the ID bandwagon exactly the same time you did (my vote change post linki'd on yours) at which time there were plenty of votes still unaccounted for. I'm not saying i should be cleared for my vote but i also didn't just hop over to put my name on the list, either.

Kites wrote: ↑Mon Mar 12, 2018 9:05 am bob how’s your promotion? you haven’t talked about it at all i think. neither did dwarf. the same goes for speedchuck and sig too actually

I mentioned I got a horse. I also got a bow. Finally I also got a guide option to my power selection.

Kites wrote: ↑Mon Mar 12, 2018 8:44 am

nutella wrote: ↑Sat Mar 10, 2018 6:47 pm

Kites wrote: ↑Sat Mar 10, 2018 2:56 pm @nutella

you promoted to what? and what does the role do?

I misdirect every night instead of every other and it has a crit chance, there's one more detail to it that I may or may not decide to reveal

chance to crit kill? you killed colin and mac lol

That's a circular argument, since she couldn't have killed them unless she had already promoted. It doesn't prove whether she's bad or good.

Kites wrote: ↑Mon Mar 12, 2018 8:51 am well quin had a crit kill too if he was a swordmaster but nutella could have done it too

Or DDL or somebody targeted by Dr White or yourself or potentially Sig (idk how his kill shows up).

Two questions about my scumminess: would I have engaged with ID in the thread like I did if we were teammates? And does most of my posting yesterday seem townie or mafia (ignoring my voting for a second)

I'm not scum but yeah my voting the last two days doesn't look great, that's for sure.

speedchuck wrote: ↑Sun Mar 11, 2018 3:56 pm I'm suddenly very uncomfortable with cbob

Meh I feel like I've been trying to drive conversation all day. If I'm mafia I just let town apathy carry us to the win. Meta, but

speedchuck wrote: ↑Sun Mar 11, 2018 3:55 pm

colonialbob wrote: ↑Sun Mar 11, 2018 3:54 pm

speedchuck wrote: ↑Sun Mar 11, 2018 3:53 pm

colonialbob wrote: ↑Sun Mar 11, 2018 3:52 pm Ok I'm feeling better on kites/gwil so I'm leaning towards voting ID actually.

What does that have to do with Kenway?

Nothing, but i was hesitant to vote ID because I didn't like his fellow voters. I feel better about two of them so the train isn't as scary.

This is not what you said earlier

My feelings on ID are not linked with my feelings on Kenway. I still think Kenway is likely bad. But nobody seemed to be going for the Kenway lynch and I don't want vote shenanigans to screw us again.

I was worried about switching to ID because I was suspicious of Kites/gwil. But the point about the PM made me feel less like I was jumping on a mafia train, helping make my mind up about switching.

speedchuck wrote: ↑Sun Mar 11, 2018 3:53 pm

colonialbob wrote: ↑Sun Mar 11, 2018 3:52 pm Ok I'm feeling better on kites/gwil so I'm leaning towards voting ID actually.

What does that have to do with Kenway?

Nothing, but i was hesitant to vote ID because I didn't like his fellow voters. I feel better about two of them so the train isn't as scary.

[VOTE: Iron Dwarf] aubergine before deadline

here goes nothing i suppose

Ok I'm feeling better on kites/gwil so I'm leaning towards voting ID actually.

Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Sat Feb 10, 2018 4:14 pm Scum team now promotes, dangerous bosses that they are. All scum players with roles that have split promotions, pm me which class you want to promote to.

I'm currently out to eat for a family birthday. I will send out background roles, background safeclaims and scum promoted roles this evening and we can start Day 1.

[mention]speedchuck[/mention]

speedchuck wrote: ↑Sun Mar 11, 2018 3:42 pm Or there's a kidden mafia power called soften-em-up

doubtful, although there could be a mafia passive protecting them from the power or whatever. but at this point i'm willing to more or less townclear him for PoE purposes.

speedchuck wrote: ↑Sun Mar 11, 2018 3:42 pm

gwilikers6 wrote: ↑Sun Mar 11, 2018 3:40 pm We know from my role that Kites used the archer power "Soften 'em Up," and as far as we know, no promoted roles have the same power names as the unpromoted roles.

So because he promoted, he's town

because scum don't promote

yes?

Because that result was before any townies promoted, but scum all promoted before D1. So the fact that he had an unpromoted power name means he isn't scum.

speedchuck wrote: ↑Sun Mar 11, 2018 3:39 pm

colonialbob wrote: ↑Sun Mar 11, 2018 3:38 pm

Kites wrote: ↑Sun Mar 11, 2018 3:26 pm @colonialbob
take a look at the role list and you can see that no two roles have a power with a same name, the same goes for promoted roles. if even one person comes forward and says his/her promoted role has a power with the same name as the pre-promotion role did, I’m not cleared. But that ain’t happening

This is a really good point.

Explain it to me, because I have no idea what he means.

gwilikers got the result of (essentially) "soften him up - sig"

promoted roles don't have the same power names as their previous version. so either gwil and kites are w/w or kites is town.

Kites wrote: ↑Sun Mar 11, 2018 3:26 pm @colonialbob
take a look at the role list and you can see that no two roles have a power with a same name, the same goes for promoted roles. if even one person comes forward and says his/her promoted role has a power with the same name as the pre-promotion role did, I’m not cleared. But that ain’t happening

This is a really good point.

speedchuck wrote: ↑Sun Mar 11, 2018 3:32 pm @colonialbob Why do you avoid any talk about Dwarf?

I haven't, I said I bumped him up my list because I feel like he's trying to solve. He backed off me at a moment I felt I was still vulnerable (due to how the lap/RDW vote played out). It's possibly he's buddying me and I'm falling for it. Like I said, I've never liked his nutella case, which didn't make sense and was pushed consistently rather than engaging the thread.