The Syndicate

Sloonei wrote: ↑Mon Apr 09, 2018 3:21 pm
Kylemii wrote: ↑Mon Apr 09, 2018 3:20 pm
Sloonei wrote: ↑Mon Apr 09, 2018 2:33 pm Who are you gonna vote for and why?
probably you or scotty but like.... realistically I'll most likely vote in whatever way allows me to not die
You won't die either way. Neither will I. Only Scotty would actually die today.

Oddly enough I read him as the most civ of the trio.

Sloonei wrote: ↑Mon Apr 09, 2018 2:58 pm
colonialbob wrote: ↑Mon Apr 09, 2018 2:57 pm I'm voting Sloonei.

[VOTE: sloonei] aubergine
Why?

Your SD interaction plus pushing for a lynch coinciding with LC's slip plus your behavior around viewing the other thread. That's what pushed you over Kyle.

I'm voting Sloonei.

[VOTE: sloonei] aubergine

Sloonei wrote: ↑Mon Apr 09, 2018 11:30 am
colonialbob wrote: ↑Mon Apr 09, 2018 7:52 am Sloonei dancing around the "why is SD town" question makes me want to vote for him.
Why?

Because civs generally have a reason for civ-reading somebody so strongly. Nobody was asking for a case with posting history laid out chapter and verse, but you didn't even say "I feel her reads are genuine, particularly of X and Y" or whatever. Your read of her is a smooth surface that we can't interact with.

Epignosis wrote: ↑Sun Apr 08, 2018 9:46 pm Question for the field:

If you are LC's teammate in Cerberus, and you know he fucked up by naming your thread, what do you do?

I guess you push for a lynch in your thread to try and delay his but you've got to resign yourself to losing him at that point, don't you?

Scotty wrote: ↑Mon Apr 09, 2018 12:00 am
Sloonei wrote: ↑Sun Apr 08, 2018 11:49 pm Tell me more about INH. I didn't know about your feelings toward him and we seem to have arrived at similar conclusions about him independently.

Linki: lol
He's more Even than Strex because of the way he reacted when wilgy was on the chopping block. He went out of his way to stick his neck out for wilgy when he did not need to and was guaranteed not to affect any change. It's an extremely bold play if he is wilgy's teammate. But there's nothing in that, or anything else, which excludes him from being an Even.
Really? I’ve been on INH for weeks. Made a case a while ago, I dunno where it is- somewhere in my ISO. I’m surprised you somehow missed that.

I would contend that, looking at LoRab and Marmot’s separate bussing of Wilgy, one of the strex teammates decided to go the extreme oppposite, and act SO defensive that it would look non w/w.

I don't think this because look at his first Wilgy vote. It was "i think Wilgy is town but I'm voting him because he's best choice." If he was going hardcore defense I think that post is different and doesn't end in the vote.

Sloonei dancing around the "why is SD town" question makes me want to vote for him.

Dom wrote: ↑Sat Apr 07, 2018 8:34 pmcbob?

Understandable but incorrect.

Leaning Kyle personally.

Sloonei wrote: ↑Fri Apr 06, 2018 2:10 pm What makes you think one of us is the last Even?

Last even in Pikachu 2.0, rather. I think that was the case?

I'll [VOTE: boomslang] aubergine for self pres, and also because he'll still be in the game. I don't have a strong scumread on anybody up for lynch today, unfortunately.

Sloonei wrote: ↑Fri Apr 06, 2018 12:38 pm
colonialbob wrote: ↑Mon Apr 02, 2018 11:11 pm
Epignosis wrote: ↑Mon Apr 02, 2018 10:45 pm
colonialbob wrote: ↑Mon Apr 02, 2018 10:25 pm
Epignosis wrote: ↑Mon Apr 02, 2018 9:42 pm [VOTE: Lorab] aubergine
What do you think of the delay in pushing the button?
I don't care about it.

What do you think about Lorab?
No reason to townread her, but I need to go check out the context you mentioned to see what I think. I also think I'd rather lynch into Sloonei/Kyle/Scotty today.
I could see cbob and LoRab as teammates in this post. He throws a token question at Epi when he votes for LoRab, and then when prompted for a read of his own he gives a weak shrug and then serves some player salad as an alternative to voting for Strexcorp member #3.

These posts constitute his only mentions of LoRab as far as I can see.

Not player salad, but likely last Even.

Boomslang wrote: ↑Thu Apr 05, 2018 9:58 pm
Sloonei wrote: ↑Thu Apr 05, 2018 2:57 pm
sprityo wrote: ↑Thu Apr 05, 2018 2:36 pm
Sloonei wrote: ↑Thu Apr 05, 2018 2:14 pm What team is sprityo hypothetically a member of?
That’s a great question figuring I’ve voted to lynch every single member of the mafia we’ve lynched
And you were presumably killee by the evens.
Agreed 100%. I'm also very skeptical of the whole civ-to-mafia flip thing given that alignments are only revealed after second death. Why would flipping after first death make any sense to include as a mechanic in that case, especially with the already unusual length of this game?

But enough about conjectures. It's a difference of opinion, but I don't like Cbob calling this flip theory "reasonable." Scotty pulls good info on a cbob-Lorab connection as well.

SVS's response to spirit's defense feels like civ-on-civ perspective disagreement, too. There's too much passion to be mafia calculation.

Going to park my aubergine on Vote colonialbob for now.

I do think it's reasonable. It's not strong, and I wouldn't be pursuing it today, except that our options are so limited, and I have a pretty strong town read on Quin and nijuu.

sprityo wrote: ↑Thu Apr 05, 2018 8:31 pm Well SVS i guess I just never looked at cbob the same way I look at you.

If you’re so adamant about that line of thought we can just shove cbob off to a corner and forget about him

Scotty wrote: ↑Thu Apr 05, 2018 4:29 pm colonialbob I’m looking through your iso of the merge, and you seem pretty indignant about refrigerator maybe being Bad on day 9 and again a few cycles later- what evidence do you see of that? Because everything I’m seeing reads the opposite.

I would say I was more indignant about nobody responding to my question. I can see his targeting as mafia (psuedo-silencing SVS, protecting Kyle when he's getting attention) but it's not definitive and I don't have bad feels about Dom or Epi apart from that. Nobody else responded to it, so I've dropped it.

Sloonei wrote: ↑Thu Apr 05, 2018 2:57 pm
sprityo wrote: ↑Thu Apr 05, 2018 2:36 pm
Sloonei wrote: ↑Thu Apr 05, 2018 2:14 pm What team is sprityo hypothetically a member of?
That’s a great question figuring I’ve voted to lynch every single member of the mafia we’ve lynched
And you were presumably killee by the evens.

FWIW the current "sprityo is bad" theory I think is reasonable is sprit1.0 was civ, gets killed, turns mafia on second life.

Probably voting boomslang or sprit. Gotta look into stuff.

From what I've seen so far:
Boom probably not Strex (pressure targets/votes)
Ninja probably not Strex. (N1 kill)
Quin 1.0 civ. (Math)

Am I missing anything?

TFW you like to live dangerously

Epignosis wrote: ↑Tue Apr 03, 2018 11:18 pm If INH is an Evil Even, he isn't going out of his damn way to defend Wilgy.

Strike him off the list.

Agreed.

Sorry everybody. 5-6 pm deadlines are really tough for me to deal with honestly. I meant to look into some cases, but didn't have the time today. Tomorrow looks busy too. Wish I was playing better this game.

I might be better off responding to specific questions vs trying to dig through isos and make all my own cases.

Dom wrote: ↑Mon Apr 02, 2018 11:40 pm
colonialbob wrote: ↑Mon Apr 02, 2018 9:42 am Thought - is refrigerator bad?

Kept targeting supatown SVS, targeted me who was (supposedly) unlynchable anyway, now targets Kyle on a day he's likely to get a lot of attention.
which is it:

refridgerator used the role as you'd expect or didn't?

Used the role as I wouldn't expect? But it's not a very strong suspicion, so I wanted to get other people's opinions on it. Nobody felt like offering opinions apparently. There's certainly plenty of other, better options for today that I'm ok dropping this specific suspicion for now.

Epignosis wrote: ↑Mon Apr 02, 2018 10:45 pm
colonialbob wrote: ↑Mon Apr 02, 2018 10:25 pm
Epignosis wrote: ↑Mon Apr 02, 2018 9:42 pm [VOTE: Lorab] aubergine
What do you think of the delay in pushing the button?
I don't care about it.

What do you think about Lorab?

No reason to townread her, but I need to go check out the context you mentioned to see what I think. I also think I'd rather lynch into Sloonei/Kyle/Scotty today.

Epignosis wrote: ↑Mon Apr 02, 2018 9:42 pm [VOTE: Lorab] aubergine

What do you think of the delay in pushing the button?

Scotty wrote: ↑Mon Apr 02, 2018 7:40 pm
colonialbob wrote: ↑Mon Apr 02, 2018 7:30 pm
Spacedaisy wrote: ↑Mon Apr 02, 2018 5:33 pm Vig, wait you just built a case on him but you think he is a civ vig?
Scotty pls respond
hi

Sure, he could be.

I’m still voting for him because I have no way of knowing and it’s not as relevant to why I think he’s mafia

But if you think he's mafia why do you also think he's one of two options to be a vig?

Spacedaisy wrote: ↑Mon Apr 02, 2018 5:33 pm Vig, wait you just built a case on him but you think he is a civ vig?

[mention]Scotty[/mention] pls respond

sprityo wrote: ↑Mon Apr 02, 2018 6:20 pm perhaps we're getting too into possible night actions

this was the trouble in FireEmblem and look what happened to the town there

albeit we have a significant advantage than what they had

We also can't claim here which makes it much harder to game things out.

Sloonei wrote: ↑Mon Apr 02, 2018 2:21 pm Does anybody not think that one of the remaining members of Pikachu 2.0 is an Evil Even?

What is the reasoning here? Sorry if it's been stated and I just missed it.

Repeat: what do people think of refrigerator's targeting? Pro or anti town?

When did Ben start appearing?

sprityo wrote: ↑Mon Apr 02, 2018 9:49 am
colonialbob wrote: ↑Mon Apr 02, 2018 9:42 am Thought - is refrigerator bad?

Kept targeting supatown SVS, targeted me who was (supposedly) unlynchable anyway, now targets Kyle on a day he's likely to get a lot of attention.
Do you think one of Dom or Epi is bad is the derivative of what you’re asking

Couldn't remember the remaining options, but yes. Although if possible I'd like to separate the questions for now, to avoid halo effect biasing any thoughts on the actions themselves.

Thought - is refrigerator bad?

Kept targeting supatown SVS, targeted me who was (supposedly) unlynchable anyway, now targets Kyle on a day he's likely to get a lot of attention.

Hey everybody, sorry I disappeared all weekend. I was traveling for a buddy's birthday and was busy pretty much the entire time. I've read over the thread but I'll probably need to reread to help my absorption.

Also I'm not bad just fyi

[mention]Boomslang[/mention] um I was responding to *other people* speculating on mechanics/recruitment and I think I made two posts about it. Why not call out Sloonei or SVS for the same thing?

Yeah agreed on the Sig thoughts. Gonna iso him real quick to further my thoughts. Also still suspicious of inh since I realized I was mixing up the days of his Wilgy votes. Vote is very likely going between those two today.

colonialbob wrote: ↑Fri Mar 30, 2018 8:28 am
Sloonei wrote: ↑Fri Mar 23, 2018 1:01 pm I don't think Marmot responds to INH's vocaroo link the way he did if he and wilgy are partners. That effectively renders wilgy's role useless.
@S~V~S your thoughts on this and how it implies INH isn't Strex?

Wait nevermind cancel that. I was getting INH and WIlgy's roles backwards.

Sloonei wrote: ↑Fri Mar 23, 2018 1:01 pm I don't think Marmot responds to INH's vocaroo link the way he did if he and wilgy are partners. That effectively renders wilgy's role useless.

[mention]S~V~S[/mention] your thoughts on this and how it implies INH isn't Strex?

sprityo wrote: ↑Thu Mar 29, 2018 10:50 pm
colonialbob wrote: ↑Thu Mar 29, 2018 10:43 pm
sprityo wrote: ↑Thu Mar 29, 2018 10:28 pm I enjoy having nju having her role revealed and all, however I would’ve personally enjoyed cbob’s alignment much more
TOWN

There ya go buddy
You sure are cheeky huh?

Too much time playing with [mention]Jackofhearts2005[/mention] I'm afraid

colonialbob wrote: ↑Thu Mar 29, 2018 11:08 pm
Sloonei wrote: ↑Thu Mar 29, 2018 10:52 pm
colonialbob wrote: ↑Thu Mar 29, 2018 10:42 pm
Dom wrote: ↑Thu Mar 29, 2018 10:23 pm INH
Boomslang
Nju
colonialbob
Daisy
DDL

who is your biggest suspect and why?
who do you trust the most and why?
Out of those? DDL I think. Why those 6?
why ddl?
PoE kinda. Plus I remember some good points in the case somebody (sig? Sprit?) laid out. Kinda GTH-y answer, will revisit in the morning.

Scratch this, for some reason I forgot about Day 9 and was thinking INH's initial Wilgy vote came D10 in opposition to the speedchuck wagon. I need to rethink this.

Sloonei wrote: ↑Thu Mar 29, 2018 10:52 pm
colonialbob wrote: ↑Thu Mar 29, 2018 10:42 pm
Dom wrote: ↑Thu Mar 29, 2018 10:23 pm INH
Boomslang
Nju
colonialbob
Daisy
DDL

who is your biggest suspect and why?
who do you trust the most and why?
Out of those? DDL I think. Why those 6?
why ddl?

PoE kinda. Plus I remember some good points in the case somebody (sig? Sprit?) laid out. Kinda GTH-y answer, will revisit in the morning.

colonialbob wrote: ↑Thu Mar 29, 2018 10:42 pm
Dom wrote: ↑Thu Mar 29, 2018 10:23 pm INH
Boomslang
Nju
colonialbob
Daisy
DDL

who is your biggest suspect and why?
who do you trust the most and why?
Out of those? DDL I think. Why those 6?

Oh trust. Me. Then nju was just revealed as town, so...

sprityo wrote: ↑Thu Mar 29, 2018 10:28 pm I enjoy having nju having her role revealed and all, however I would’ve personally enjoyed cbob’s alignment much more

TOWN

There ya go buddy

Dom wrote: ↑Thu Mar 29, 2018 10:23 pm INH
Boomslang
Nju
colonialbob
Daisy
DDL

who is your biggest suspect and why?
who do you trust the most and why?

Out of those? DDL I think. Why those 6?

Sloonei wrote: ↑Thu Mar 29, 2018 9:52 pm Town read on nijuukyugou.

Bold.

Epignosis wrote: ↑Thu Mar 29, 2018 8:57 pm
colonialbob wrote: ↑Thu Mar 22, 2018 7:04 am
Boomslang wrote: ↑Wed Mar 21, 2018 6:09 pm Following the train, because I've fallen off of it. Vote Wilgy aubergine.
[VOTE: boomslang ] aubergine for this
This is the post in
Which you voted Boomslang for
His Wilgy vote, no?

colonialbob wrote: ↑Thu Mar 22, 2018 12:11 pm
Epignosis wrote: ↑Thu Mar 22, 2018 10:37 am What is the reason for voting Boomslang? What team do you think he's on, and what do you make of Marmot's aggression toward him?
His vote on Wilgy was the ultimate in "hello fellow townies", judging by his posts in this thread.

Sorry, I'm not reading the entire Cerberus thread plus Pikachu post-swap. You can either have me paeticipate, or have me read, but certainly not both. If somebody can point me to prior Boomslang case/suspicion on Wilgy I'll move my vote.
This is the post in
Which you judge Boomslang for what
You did not look for

colonialbob wrote: ↑Thu Mar 22, 2018 4:07 pm "Wilgy isn't bad but I'm going to lynch him anyway"

Nah. That doesn't fly.

[VOTE: INH] aubergine
This is the post in
You know what? You were trying
To save bad Wilgy

Wrong wrong wrong.

A) if I was trying to save Wilgy I would've been pushing speedchuck
B) why did I pick those two Wilgy voters instead of the early voters and tried to head it off before the counter-train got going
C) seriously Wilgy was a terrible choice to try and save since he was basically guaranteed to get lynched within a couple days

Epignosis wrote: ↑Thu Mar 29, 2018 8:39 pm In fact, read through bob
And see how he tried to steer
People from Wilgy

Yes, please show me how I tried to steer people from Wilgy.

He was dead man walking, and by the time I voted he had 12 votes. Why wouldn't I have just jumped on the train when it was pretty clear there wasn't going to really be a countertrain?

Spacedaisy wrote: ↑Thu Mar 29, 2018 12:04 pm I don't really understand what you mean, but if you are town I would rather you not talk about something that could put you at risk.

Go look at my role flip.

(I bring it up in the WIFOM-y hope that a mafia member would keep quiet and hope nobody notices)

Spacedaisy wrote: ↑Thu Mar 29, 2018 11:59 am I just had a thought. If we believe that there is at least one civ role which has a mafia role for their second life, then it seems to me that mafia would want to push as many first lynches of people as they can without following through to second lynches. This might be a good thing to go back and look for. Who was keen to lynch someone and then abandoned that person to move onto the next lynch? They could have been mining for their hidden teammate.

Despite great personal risk, I will say my first role is kinda tailor-made for that type of mechanic.

(I'm town tho, through and through)

Sloonei wrote: ↑Thu Mar 29, 2018 11:57 am RE: "Recruitment" mechanism, Golden said this early in the Cerberus thread:
Golden wrote: ↑Tue Feb 27, 2018 1:23 am 2nd roles are not assigned randomly. They were paired and the players received a pair at random.

As was noted in the second post of the thread, the split of players into tribes was random. There is no guarantee of any particular number or ratio of any alignment in the tribe.

Thanks, yeah, that's why I think that even if there was somebody who went from civ 1st life to mafia 2nd life that was a set part of the role pairing, not what I'd call a "recruitment".

As one of those people I'm also interested in an explanation

Sloonei wrote: ↑Thu Mar 29, 2018 1:07 am I'll ask this again: what evidence is there that the Evens kill on even nights and strex on odd?

The only pre-button NK in Pikachu was SVS on N6, we know we had Evens in Pikachu, we don't know we had Strex. It's more lack of counter-evidence i think.

Quin wrote: ↑Thu Mar 29, 2018 7:23 am
S~V~S wrote: ↑Thu Mar 29, 2018 7:13 am So what would you think? Three original and one first death recruit?

I wonder what the mechanism would be? If it was number based, like the first NK your team makes, or choice based, the baddies could find out who other baddies are, because their recruit would fail since I would guess they can't recruit from another team.

So either the baddies have info, or it is a random recruiting mechanism, imo. Would lynched people be excluded from the recruit process, since they would bring baggage?

I think Jack was civ both times. He moved from one life to the next cleanly.

This is something to think about, and what it basically says is no one can be excluded based on thread, because the person you just tried to lynch could be your new partner.

Anyone have any thoughts on anyone who change suspicions? Maybe came back from the Pet Semetary?
I am inclined to say that it's just a random reincarnation and would include lynchees. That's my preference for assignment more than an educated take on it.

If I was setting up this scenario (always a dangerous path to take but we're already well into speculation) I'd have the mafia roles predetermined, so (for example) there's a pair of roles where the first is civ and then when it dies the player is told they're actually a cylon mafia. We already know the first part of that is true, don't we? (Roles are paired)

Epignosis wrote: ↑Wed Mar 28, 2018 11:50 pm If dom is bad, he isn't on LC's team anyway.

Neither am I though

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