The Syndicate

And it’s only a 1 in 4 for you because you have potential partner equity

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Tue Mar 26, 2024 11:43 pm Yes. If you give me a choice between:

Door #1: weird gambit in a world where people could easily not even catch on

Door #2: kill two people at the same time

Well, I'm gonna open the right door.

given that I wasn’t a wolf I didn’t see how tight you could narrow it down (and I’m gonna try to keep myself from knowing to accidentally reveal anything) but if it’s really the 1 in 4 or whatever the clear is definitely more valuable (I don’t think it is)

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Tue Mar 26, 2024 11:40 pm

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Tue Mar 26, 2024 11:38 pm As like a “mechanism by which the wolves appear to not know what’s going on”

And to build on that: I think both Epi and LC would ask in mafia chat what the thief is. They'd figure it out.

hence

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Tue Mar 26, 2024 11:33 pm I don’t think Moto can be a wolf now. I think we shouldn’t kill anyone in the “should be a wolf kill” pool (though if Abigail was actually Kage I’ll hope for a smart bus). I’ll clear Epi/LC/hesitantly Jay for now. Three, maybe four reasonable candidates left, pool of two for the day.

gonna state the obvious and say if Jay is a wolf and is leading the game in posts by such a huge amount and then made a crazy gambit NK just to attempt to clear himself that’s very good play and far better than people typically think of his wolf range and I can’t be too upset about losing to it

As like a “mechanism by which the wolves appear to not know what’s going on”

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Tue Mar 26, 2024 11:37 pm The unfortunate lol-reality would be if this logic is broken because mafia didn't know the thief is Kagemusha.

Which is why both Tony and I should be almost hard-cleared.

ok that makes sense actually

But if they had info you’d think they’d have paid attention at some point

Now if they did have info it would make up for the small team along with the 3p role

But lets be real if Jay is town and wolves had the opportunity to get that flip and passed it up, either they’re silly or they had info or they just weren’t around

Which like also clears me along with all the other things that clear me

I don’t think Moto can be a wolf now. I think we shouldn’t kill anyone in the “should be a wolf kill” pool (though if Abigail was actually Kage I’ll hope for a smart bus). I’ll clear Epi/LC/hesitantly Jay for now. Three, maybe four reasonable candidates left, pool of two for the day.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Tue Mar 26, 2024 11:30 pm I hereby acknowledge Tony's post and continue voting Not Tony.

Yeah that’s really all the talking that needs to be done about it but I’d like it selfishly if we could make sure wolves saw it so they didn’t kill me

And I’ll prove I’m genuinely invested in a town victory by continuing to play the game despite the fact that a 3p survivor claim at this stage in this game should just float

I’m getting this out now since I don’t think it matters but probably adds to my win percentage. I’m a 3p survivor. I can only win with town. I don’t add to parity, so wolves — don’t kill me. If you (town) think I’m lying and waste time trying to kill me you will almost certainly lose the game to mech. I will spite anyone who tries this.

falconRab is buyable

ok super late

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Tue Mar 26, 2024 11:16 pm Could be, I dunno. The Wilgy kill suggests that at the very least, they don't have a grip on how to achieve that bonus.

If Tony is a civilian he is going to hate this conversation.

shut up mr teddy bear

I’m considering it

I should be cleared by wilgy kill lol

Long Con wrote: ↑Tue Mar 26, 2024 10:08 pm RIP Wilgy.

I thought the thief WAS Kagemusha, from the opening description. The thief is identical to the daimyō, but is Shingen the daimyō? And Kagemusha replaces Shingen, so I thought they would be identical.

But now I don't know, because AS didn't flip Kagemusha, so the thief is someone different? Hopefully, a Wolf? Also, there was no alignment given in the host post?

The thief is kagemusha

oh shit

when does day end

also could be a pr flip

i kinda started it didn't i

this isn't a wolf flip

smh really wanna vote jay

Vote Abi 2

falcon45ca wrote: ↑Mon Mar 25, 2024 10:00 am

Epignosis wrote: ↑Mon Mar 25, 2024 12:10 am He's not Glorfindel. Jesus.

@Simon Why did your team kill Scotty?

Do you?

I’m trusting your town read of Wilgy which is running headstrong into Epi’s read and I’m gonna think about what that means maybe tomorrow

no update on either because neither has done anything today (sorry)

you need a meta claim to support your disbelief or Ill accuse you of INCORRIGIBILITY

Long Con wrote: ↑Sun Mar 24, 2024 8:10 pm

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Sun Mar 24, 2024 8:01 pm

Long Con wrote: ↑Sun Mar 24, 2024 7:52 pm

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Sun Mar 24, 2024 5:37 pm but don't think it's logically conclusive and I think the implied premise is false

Why aren't you calling your votes in the thread? What is this tactic?

i don't tend to call my votes in thread unless it's required by law (which tbf it might be here) bevcause I don't know how the vote tags work

bro we’ve played mafia together for like a long time

Long Con wrote: ↑Sun Mar 24, 2024 7:52 pm

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Sun Mar 24, 2024 5:37 pm but don't think it's logically conclusive and I think the implied premise is false

Why aren't you calling your votes in the thread? What is this tactic?

i don't tend to call my votes in thread unless it's required by law (which tbf it might be here) bevcause I don't know how the vote tags work

epi get your kids to play some mafia

all I can say is we better hope there are two wolves

every so often I have the thought of "ah I'm second-posting people are gonna think I'm a wolf" and then I remember it's because no one else is here.

but don't think it's logically conclusive and I think the implied premise is false

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Sun Mar 24, 2024 5:17 pm If nothing else, civilian Long Con rarely responds to suspicion in this way.

don't entirely disagree.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Sat Mar 23, 2024 11:52 pm

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Sat Mar 23, 2024 11:49 pm I don't quite think that Long Con has demonstrated the earnest concern about his status that w!LC tends to betray but I'm not really sold on that being a reason not to vote for him

What's your impression of Epignosis?

who knows

the question is at what point do the wolves decide that it's in their best interest to start targeting the low-posters in order to reveal the gerat hope that they might find themselves, and quickly, with a decisive advantage

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Sun Mar 24, 2024 12:23 am The most generic team of three that comes to my head would be Long Con + falcon45ca + [low activity player of your choice].

Perhaps there's enough thread here for me to assess if these kinds of teams can be viably constructed (or refuted), but I'm not optimistic.

generic team indeed. could prove accurate enough.

gonna out more mech stuff I guess, everyone who gets put on the stand should at least strongly consider claiming kagemusha, depending on their relative game position. game theory works out that way. The PRs have to do it, the wolves then have to do it, at which point the town have to do it to provide proper cover. Don't think it's worth not talking this through before it starts happening and we have to start thinking about it.

i mean how tf can you role claim without character claiming with two of the roles being open

not even gonna wait to out game state knowledge that if jay leads a chop on a relatively high activity player and they flip town then jay will almost invariably be up the next day.

The game mechanics strongly incentivizes choosing a suspect and pushing them with some combined force. Claims and counterclaims, while they can happen, are gonna be at least potentially very damaging to town now I'm realizing that there's a possibility that this is a claim-banned-game and I'm gonna go check

no solid read on falc

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Sat Mar 23, 2024 11:50 pm How about a baseline question to gauge our view of things:

Are the mafia in this game active, inactive, or a reasonably even mix?

The answer to this question ought to dictate our collective mindset, I think. If we just shrug and let things go as they go, the default future is likely to kill another low-activity player next.

I will answer myself shortly, but I want to give others a chance to think about it before I add bias.

I'm kinda with Epi. Scotty kill strikes me as ~reasonable. At least suggests the wolves read the setup, not always a guarantee. I think the kids might have something of an inclination to smite their own father. Wonder if the father has an inclination against smiting a kid (applies widely -- epi notes, correctly, that there's some general disdain for going after the kids).

SLiP ALERT SLIP ALERT SLIP ALERT (jk)

I don't quite think that Long Con has demonstrated the earnest concern about his status that w!LC tends to betray but I'm not really sold on that being a reason not to vote for him

someone ask me why I didn't vote PA and I'll give the same answer

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Sat Mar 23, 2024 11:42 pm

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Sat Mar 23, 2024 11:41 pm

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Sat Mar 23, 2024 10:58 pm My first thought is that it seems unlikely a mafia team with Simon in it views Scotty as the best Night 1 kill (Scotty was virtually alone in reading Simon as a civilian).

Don't mind this as NKA but in the absence of a positive reason I can't find it convincing.

What do you mean by a positive reason?

an actual explanation, something that seems more explanable than "well there's a reason why simon might not"


you don't get killed for two reasons-

1) latent suspicion but more importantly
2) you are ~never~ one of the roles the game revolves around (at least not in the minds of many).

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Sat Mar 23, 2024 10:58 pm My first thought is that it seems unlikely a mafia team with Simon in it views Scotty as the best Night 1 kill (Scotty was virtually alone in reading Simon as a civilian).

Don't mind this as NKA but in the absence of a positive reason I can't find it convincing.