The Syndicate

Ricochet wrote: ↑Thu Nov 17, 2022 6:23 pm

Spacedaisy wrote: ↑Thu Nov 17, 2022 6:18 pm No, fuck, I don't want a tie. I'll voe lucy. [VOTE: lucy] aubergine

Is this just tie related? What's your lucy read?

I have flipped back and forth on lucy. More recently I have not felt like she was bad, but I haven't given her attention since she came back and started explaining things on D1.

I'm spinning out here. I don't like being the person to decide this elimination because I don't trust my reads. With so many town dead I'm really worried about a misstep here.

Epi is my only solid town read.

Boq really looks to have a limitation, and he actually looks like he's trying to game solve.

So it's lucy or TSP from those left. Going back to TSP. Between TSP and lucy, I've seen more town posts from lucy.

[VOTE: TSP] aubergine

We need at least one more vote on TSP though, if he tosses a self pres vote on lucy, it will be tied and mafia break the tie.

What is happening here.

Epignosis wrote: ↑Thu Nov 17, 2022 6:54 pm Skipped wall posts in the interest of time and the rest of what I sped through was jumbled anyway.

Most of it my jumble I'm sure. Where are you voting?

Why isn’t Epi dead?

Because you are the person who looks most solidly town. I fully expected that you would die last night.

It seems like everyone has some combination of Rico in their solve. I'm willing to put a vote there for now, see what happens. [VOTE: Ricochet] aubergine

When I say why is Epi still alive I don't mean that you are suspicious, I mean I don't understand the kill

Epignosis wrote: ↑Fri Nov 18, 2022 11:34 pm

Spacedaisy wrote: ↑Fri Nov 18, 2022 10:58 pm Because you are the person who looks most solidly town. I fully expected that you would die last night.

It seems like everyone has some combination of Rico in their solve. I'm willing to put a vote there for now, see what happens. [VOTE: Ricochet] aubergine

I cleared myself (unless you believe mafia got a free kill in a JJJ designed game).

As long as there's a kill, there's no reason to ask why I'm still alive. The answer to that is that mafia picked someone else.

Yes and I want to know why.

Epignosis wrote: ↑Sat Nov 19, 2022 12:20 am I'm prepared to lose, spec chat. Regardless if what happens, Violet has never voted. Not once. So with two mafia alive likely, what I do doesn't matter today. Oh well!

What if Violet is bad? You believe Violet is town?

Why lucy?

Epignosis wrote: ↑Sat Nov 19, 2022 12:44 am

Spacedaisy wrote: ↑Sat Nov 19, 2022 12:40 amWhy lucy?

Well, why not you?

You wouldn't like that.

I'm not voting me.

That's obvious.

There's Ricochet and Violet and Dys left.

So I'm going to turn this back around on you: RIcochet, Violet or Dyslexicon?

Its not you and it's not me. So at least two mafia in the following four:

Who does lucy suspect?
Epi and Dizzy

Who does Dizzy suspect?
lucy, rico, or violet

Who does Rico suspect?
Judging from yesterday lucy and violet

Who does violet suspect?
Rico and Dizzy


But I think it's like there is distancing now. Also wolves will want to keep as many from removed from the PoE as possible. So Dizzy with three people in their suspect list gives me a little warning bell.
Rico shows up in two suspect lists, as does Dizzy. Lucy is in three. But does wolf lucy try and make Epi of all people look bad? That seems like a stretch to me, town reading Epi is a better move for a wolf there. it won't look like TMI, but it also will make you look town-sided.

I think looking at those that if lucy is town, looking at this list of who is listing who in their PoE, I lean Rico and Dizzy. But it is really based on what I think the most likely play from a wolf is, it's not based on fact.

Let me ask you this. If it is lucy, who is most likely the teammate in your opinion?

Epignosis wrote: ↑Sat Nov 19, 2022 12:45 am Or if you prefer, why NOT lucy?

I don't think it makes sense for a wolf to come after you. I don't see the benefit in it.

Rico, who is in your PoE right now

Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Sat Nov 19, 2022 9:40 am

Ricochet wrote: ↑Sat Nov 19, 2022 2:47 am Morning. RIP TSP & Boq.

I've been on road yesterday, which synced well with the Night phase, and have a concert tonight and returning home tomorrow, which syncs less well with the Day phase. Will drop when I can today and more towards EOD tomorrow.

The TSP mislynch didn't clear stuff for me, since my reads were at lucy wagon wolf with Dolby, Violet backbench wolf, and maybe Dizzy sheeping us (whilst also wagon wolf with Dolby) or Boquise sheeping us hard. With Boquise kill, that leaves lucy / violet / dizzy.

Epig town, by virtue of his D2 action.
To which, my only small question mark would be that I am very confused as to why Moonwink's role flip seems identical to Epig's (or rather to how Epig's vig shot unfolded D2). Two policy killers in one game? Or some sort of copycat mechanism?

A central mechanism for the game is that roles can be inherited. Both me and Epig has chosen to inherit the role of the one we killed. Which makes it so that our original role is the one revealed.

I'm thinking this might be a derp for you maybe, as I think mafia would probably know this? Cause I'm pretty sure they also get the choice to inherit a role with kills they make.

Wait you killed someone? Who did you kill?

Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Sat Nov 19, 2022 9:26 am

Spacedaisy wrote: ↑Sat Nov 19, 2022 1:24 am

Epignosis wrote: ↑Sat Nov 19, 2022 12:44 am

Spacedaisy wrote: ↑Sat Nov 19, 2022 12:40 amWhy lucy?

Well, why not you?

You wouldn't like that.

I'm not voting me.

That's obvious.

There's Ricochet and Violet and Dys left.

So I'm going to turn this back around on you: RIcochet, Violet or Dyslexicon?

Its not you and it's not me. So at least two mafia in the following four:

Who does lucy suspect?
Epi and Dizzy

Who does Dizzy suspect?
lucy, rico, or violet

Who does Rico suspect?
Judging from yesterday lucy and violet

Who does violet suspect?
Rico and Dizzy


But I think it's like there is distancing now. Also wolves will want to keep as many from removed from the PoE as possible. So Dizzy with three people in their suspect list gives me a little warning bell.
Rico shows up in two suspect lists, as does Dizzy. Lucy is in three. But does wolf lucy try and make Epi of all people look bad? That seems like a stretch to me, town reading Epi is a better move for a wolf there. it won't look like TMI, but it also will make you look town-sided.

I think looking at those that if lucy is town, looking at this list of who is listing who in their PoE, I lean Rico and Dizzy. But it is really based on what I think the most likely play from a wolf is, it's not based on fact.

Let me ask you this. If it is lucy, who is most likely the teammate in your opinion?

I don't really understand what you're saying in this post. Can you rephrase, or tell me how much this weighs for you?

Who is independently the most wolfy to you?

Also, are there pairings you think are unlikely?

^Questions for everyone btw

I don't know who is most wolfy because they have all flipped civ so far so I don't trust my reads on individuals.

Least likely pairing looking at that list in my mind is Rico and violet. They both list each other, and that limits the wolves ability to wriggle out of reads and naturally appear to move on to other susicions. I trust people who list more suspects less, because wolves need to keep as much suspicion around as they can. PoE is not their friend. That would be you and Rico, both now having three suspects listed.

I have read every post in this game and yet somehow I am still apparently missing major points that have happened. I got it now, Dizzy is claiming to have killed Ruri. And is saying that when you kill someone, if you take on their role then your discarded role is revealed as theirs. Man, this took me a long time to catch on to.

Why are you so sure of it?

Epignosis wrote: ↑Sun Nov 20, 2022 12:48 am

Spacedaisy wrote: ↑Sun Nov 20, 2022 12:42 am I have read every post in this game and yet somehow I am still apparently missing major points that have happened. I got it now, Dizzy is claiming to have killed Ruri. And is saying that when you kill someone, if you take on their role then your discarded role is revealed as theirs. Man, this took me a long time to catch on to.

You're dizzy's teammate.

Only if Dizzy is Town.

Epignosis wrote: ↑Sun Nov 20, 2022 12:46 am

Spacedaisy wrote: ↑Sun Nov 20, 2022 12:43 am Why are you so sure of it?

Post 1103

two questions for you:

1. Has anyone disputed that Dizzy killed Ruri?
2. Do you see a wolf reason for Dizzy to have given up the role Ruri was flipped? Or to have refused it?

Epignosis wrote: ↑Sun Nov 20, 2022 12:56 am Spacedaisy is Dys' mafia partner because she thinks I'm good but won't consider Dys as bad. There's no room for that thinking.

I'm sorry if I'm too late for this, but that's how it goes.

When have I said I won't consider Dizzy bad? This is not what any of my most recent posts have said. I specifically said that Dizzy listing three suspects looked shady because PoE is not a wolf's friend.

Me asking questions and trying to understand what Dizzy is saying and consider if there is any merit to it is not the same as me thinking Dizzy is good.

You are wrong about me and being entirely unhelpful at this point. So carry on thinking what you want.

I would like to see where Rico votes before I consider moving.

If the spread stays this way, I will definitely move though, because a tie is not an option here. I would move to either Dizzy or Lucy at this point. A vote on you is just completely baffling to me. I don't know what the deal is with lucy's vote.

Epignosis wrote: ↑Sun Nov 20, 2022 1:17 am

Spacedaisy wrote: ↑Sun Nov 20, 2022 1:16 am I would like to see where Rico votes before I consider moving.

What does Rico's vote have to do with yours?

Are you not here to vote out mafia members?

Because I think seeing connections and interactions matter. It could help inform my decision of where my vote ends up.

lucy wrote: ↑Sun Nov 20, 2022 1:26 am

Spacedaisy wrote: ↑Sun Nov 20, 2022 1:18 am If the spread stays this way, I will definitely move though, because a tie is not an option here. I would move to either Dizzy or Lucy at this point. A vote on you is just completely baffling to me. I don't know what the deal is with lucy's vote.

it's ridiculous right?
last time I had a 100% confidence read I was right on dizzy and she won a game as mafia
I expected her to follow me because of this fact
because she didn't my conclusion is that she's too agenda'ed to actually bend to my will, ergo mafia

So you are saying your vote on Epi was an attempt to test Dizzy. Ok. I don't know what i think of that, but it's at least an explanation.

Real time with me?

I have a hard time reconciling Dizzy's behavior with wolf, especially yesterday unless they are protecting someone. Also, seeing their explanation of mech things I missed, gives me pause. I don't quite understand why it doesn't give anyone else pause.

I would rather see us voting Rico today, frankly. I'll move if I have to though.

I get that.

Have you read Dizzy's case for them being "mech cleared"? I don't think they are actually mech cleared, because as Epi pointed out, it requires believing they did what they say, however, I can't see a mafia reason to have passed on the role the Ruri flipped.

That's my reason to pause on Dizzy atm.

But I feel like in the last two games I played, I based how I read someone upon not seeing a good reason for a wolf to do what they did, as in I saw no benefit for them and only risk to do what they did if they were wolf. Both of those times I was fooled. it's why I am struggling with this right now.

lucy wrote: ↑Sun Nov 20, 2022 1:39 am

Spacedaisy wrote: ↑Sun Nov 20, 2022 1:36 am Also, seeing their explanation of mech things I missed, gives me pause. I don't quite understand why it doesn't give anyone else pause.

because it is within dizzy's range as scum to do x that is pro town

Passing up a role that is a guaranteed extra kill for the wolves though? That isn't just to look good, that is passing up a tool that you could quietly take, with no one the wiser and continue to kill people off with and get closer to your goal. Do you see what I mean?

Maybe I don't understand the role Ruri flipped. Let me double check that.

Ruri's role:
Spankvig lol

You’re both a slank and a spam vig. If someone posts fewer than five times in the previous day, you can shoot them. If someone posts more than 150 times in the previous day, you can shoot them. You can target up to three people per night.

If you target one person: they will die (assuming no other actions, ie roleblock, protection, etc)
If you target two people: your first listed target will die. Your second listed target has a 50% chance of dying.
If you target three people: your first listed target will die. Your second and third listed targets each have a 1 / 3 chance of dying.

And it specified that Ruri's original role was inherited and this was the discarded role. I suppose the only reason I could see a mafia throwing that away would be if they did not foresee town players making more than 150 or less than 5 posts in a day. And I suppose it could make them look suspect for not killing violet.

If Dizzy is bad, then Violet has to be their partner. It all comes down to did Dizzy actually make this kill, and would they discard this role if they are mafia?

Also, lucy, what do you make of Dizzy's behavior before the TSP flip? They were playing like an outed wolf and I was super confused that I had missed something. Thoughts?

lucy wrote: ↑Sun Nov 20, 2022 1:42 am

Spacedaisy wrote: ↑Sun Nov 20, 2022 1:40 am But I feel like in the last two games I played, I based how I read someone upon not seeing a good reason for a wolf to do what they did, as in I saw no benefit for them and only risk to do what they did if they were wolf. Both of those times I was fooled. it's why I am struggling with this right now.

this is because wolves always play mechanically sub-optimally, and say "why would wolves do x, it doesn't make sense"

It's one thing to play sub-optimally with something people will see. But it is another to literally throw away a huge advantage that no one would have to know you had to begin with. They could win the game quicker by keeping a killing role.

lucy wrote: ↑Sun Nov 20, 2022 1:50 am @Spacedaisy iso my last page or two, I pointed directly at dizzy then she won, I won't say that what dizzy saying isn't reasonable (it probably is) i am saying this is dizzy and I'm not trusting her confirming herself and I'm especially not liking her SRing me in lylo and positioning nobody to vote violet or rico at last second

what is SRing?

lucy wrote: ↑Sun Nov 20, 2022 1:56 am

Violet wrote: ↑Wed Nov 16, 2022 9:04 am I got unexpected trouble on weekend, but now I am fully able to play. I will analyze every post, every player and every vote that has been cast. You can expect results later today

1) I assume this was before ruri's role flipped
2) I assume role flipping late is so that people can inherit or not inherit roles after they kill someone
3) Violet is only other low poster (nobody was breaking 150) and he said he'd be more active

wouldn't u drop the role to look towny, daisy?

This is why I'm saying if Dizzy is bad, Violet must be their partner.

lucy wrote: ↑Sun Nov 20, 2022 1:56 am

Spacedaisy wrote: ↑Sun Nov 20, 2022 1:52 am

lucy wrote: ↑Sun Nov 20, 2022 1:50 am @Spacedaisy iso my last page or two, I pointed directly at dizzy then she won, I won't say that what dizzy saying isn't reasonable (it probably is) i am saying this is dizzy and I'm not trusting her confirming herself and I'm especially not liking her SRing me in lylo and positioning nobody to vote violet or rico at last second

what is SRing?

scum reading

Thanks, I'm pretty sure I knew this at one point or another but I could not remember and it was bugging me

I'm going to work, I'll be back tomorrow to figure out what I'm going to do

Daisy
Epi

lucy

violet
Dizzy
Rico

I haven't decided what I feel about you yet.

I don't know, that's my point. Originally it looked like you were trying to keep Epi as a viable suspect and that looked like someone who is scared of PoE to me. I have at times felt you were towny and at times felt you weren't. I can't get a bead on you.

lucy wrote: ↑Sun Nov 20, 2022 2:15 am

Spacedaisy wrote: ↑Sun Nov 20, 2022 2:11 am I don't know, that's my point. Originally it looked like you were trying to keep Epi as a viable suspect and that looked like someone who is scared of PoE to me. I have at times felt you were towny and at times felt you weren't. I can't get a bead on you.

Hans Niemann has all the anal beads

Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Sun Nov 20, 2022 4:13 pm Yeah, me and Violet die together

What are your feelings about violets alignment and I need to understand what that means for the numbers but I'm also under a deadline for a file and my brain can't process much today.

Given Triplehaven's role, I am kind of wondering about the likelihood of the role violet has claimed being town when we know there was already one neighborizor or whatever the fuck we call them that we absolutely know was town. I need to read back over their role.

Epi, I concur that Rico looks very much like mafia Golden in Game 1 right now.

Ricochet wrote: ↑Sun Nov 20, 2022 5:01 pm

Spacedaisy wrote: ↑Sun Nov 20, 2022 4:59 pm Epi, I concur that Rico looks very much like mafia Golden in Game 1 right now.

That was said towards Dizzy.

Well, it is you who has major mafia Golden vibes going on imo.

Rico, you've cased every single player, I didn't read everyone's in particular but I know in mine you kind of mischaracterized some of the things. For example, my move on TSP was specifically because we needed to get it off a tie. So I had to pick one of the three options that I could help move ahead of a tie. You just put I moved for no reasons.

You've cased everyone and yet not cast a vote

Worried about saving a teammate?

I'm tempted to shake shit up and vote lucy right now.

I really don't feel like what I'm seeing from Dizzy is a wolf look.

Why isn't Rico just self pres voting already?

Ricochet wrote: ↑Sun Nov 20, 2022 5:18 pm

Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Sun Nov 20, 2022 5:13 pm

Ricochet wrote: ↑Sun Nov 20, 2022 5:10 pm

Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Sun Nov 20, 2022 5:10 pm

Violet wrote: ↑Fri Nov 18, 2022 8:32 pm Some call me the loverizer. They are mistaken, as I am much more like a hostage taker. I pair myself with a player I suspect is a wolf and if wolves dare to kill me, they'll lose one of their own. If I used my powers succesfully that is.

Currently I think Rico and Dizzy are the likeliest wolves. Boq started to trouble me a bit after TSP's flip, but that slot doesn't require solving any longer.

@Ricochet Is this the post you are referring to?

Yes.

And you can’t see how that possibly can be a mafia role?

If Violet did not lie about the role description, then... no?

Makes more sense that a mafia would hold a role like that. They would know who they are taking down is not their teammate in the case that someone manages to vote them out of vig kill them. Whereas, giving that role to a civ can mean they are much more likely to take out another townie with them if they die. Plus, how many civ vig shots have we already seen?