The Syndicate

My PoE at the moment is basically anyone outside of me, Guillo and Nook.

I have a slight town lean on Urist.

I have no read at all on Wilgy.

I have a fluctuating read on falcon so I'd say slight wolf lean.

I don't trust Creature or DDL.

If the shot was in my hands I would shoot DDL.

This all comes with no ISOs yet. I'm about to get sleep now, so I will go ahead and vote on DDL at the moment, but it could still change before the shot gets taken, I'm not sure.

NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Mon Feb 14, 2022 10:29 pm
Spacedaisy wrote: ↑Mon Feb 14, 2022 10:24 pm Neither is pointing out you could just as easily read my ISO. I don't have detailed notes or a memorized case, I didn't go back to discuss this because I a trying to work. I shouldn't even be posting right now. I have to work until 5:30 in the morning so I can have a decent pay check this week and pay my bills. I would have to go back and refresh myself on everything Creature said that pinged. I don't have time for that right now.

The big things that do stick out in my head is the fact that Day Creature had 29 posts, of which 19 were mech discussion posts. Then at the end of the day he bemoaned that today was such a bust because all people talked about was mech and the wolves can hide in mech talk. Despite the fact that he was one of the driving forces of that conversation.

I also recall feeling like when NAA and Marmot were took out, it was likely an opportunity for the wolves to try and come in and control conversation. I waited because I wanted to see who seemed to come charging in. The two who came in were Creature and DDL. Creature also came in with wall posts reads. I didn't care for the look, but not something by itself that was bad.

I cannot fathom why anyone would have thought Dizzy bad. There is no world in which a wolf makes the post he did. It makes literally no sense to believe that he was wolf. Yet Creature and DDL were on him. It was beyond me, and the only reason I can see that someone would do it is because they would want to keep as many question marks out there as possible.

Honestly, I'm shocked I wasn't targeted last night after what you said. And I don't get why Dizzy was killed, because I was the only person who seemed confident he was town.

Beyond those thoughts, I can't recall particulars. It would require another ISO and I just feel like focusing on other things at this point. Now, I am going to go throw myself into work for like 8 hours. Catch you guys sometime tomorrow.
Glgl

Ftr literally this post is all I was after lol, that or a link. I don't really have time or energy to dig through ISOs this evening.

<3 Seems like we both were coming from the same place btw. Also, I frequently come across angrier than I actually am. No hard feelings I hope.

In fact, if I am right about Guillo and wrong about both DDL and Creature, that leaves us with falcon, Urist, and Wilgy.

I don't think I am wrong about both DDL and Creature. I would be shocked if at least one of these two was not wolf. The way DDL flipped on his read of Creature makes me prefer to see him shot today. I'll ISO later.. I have like an hour and a half left and only took a break for a few minutes from work.

Guillotine wrote: ↑Tue Feb 15, 2022 1:43 am
Spacedaisy wrote: ↑Mon Feb 14, 2022 10:24 pm I cannot fathom why anyone would have thought Dizzy bad. There is no world in which a wolf makes the post he did. It makes literally no sense to believe that he was wolf. Yet Creature and DDL were on him. It was beyond me, and the only reason I can see that someone would do it is because they would want to keep as many question marks out there as possible.

I thought Dizzy was scum, why are you calling out Creature and DDL for it but not me? I'm partly responsible for Dizzy getting heat yesterday.

Because I have believed since Day 1 you are town. Your actions are on the whole look much more town for it to concern me as much from you. Next to Dizzy, you were my strongest town read. But two people who have already acted suspiciously definitely look shady for it. I don't believe they really didn't notice it or see what I saw. Especially DDL. He's a smart dude.

Neither is pointing out you could just as easily read my ISO. I don't have detailed notes or a memorized case, I didn't go back to discuss this because I a trying to work. I shouldn't even be posting right now. I have to work until 5:30 in the morning so I can have a decent pay check this week and pay my bills. I would have to go back and refresh myself on everything Creature said that pinged. I don't have time for that right now.

The big things that do stick out in my head is the fact that Day Creature had 29 posts, of which 19 were mech discussion posts. Then at the end of the day he bemoaned that today was such a bust because all people talked about was mech and the wolves can hide in mech talk. Despite the fact that he was one of the driving forces of that conversation.

I also recall feeling like when NAA and Marmot were took out, it was likely an opportunity for the wolves to try and come in and control conversation. I waited because I wanted to see who seemed to come charging in. The two who came in were Creature and DDL. Creature also came in with wall posts reads. I didn't care for the look, but not something by itself that was bad.

I cannot fathom why anyone would have thought Dizzy bad. There is no world in which a wolf makes the post he did. It makes literally no sense to believe that he was wolf. Yet Creature and DDL were on him. It was beyond me, and the only reason I can see that someone would do it is because they would want to keep as many question marks out there as possible.

Honestly, I'm shocked I wasn't targeted last night after what you said. And I don't get why Dizzy was killed, because I was the only person who seemed confident he was town.

Beyond those thoughts, I can't recall particulars. It would require another ISO and I just feel like focusing on other things at this point. Now, I am going to go throw myself into work for like 8 hours. Catch you guys sometime tomorrow.

wtf are you on about falcon? I literally have said I don't see the point in me repeating a stance I have made clear throughout the entirety of three days and the person holding the shot doesn't agree with. I have said zero about any other interactions with anyone else. How am I stifling anyone? I'm not. In fact, the opposite, I've said that once I'm past my night of work, I intend to do some ISOs on others instead because I'm done taking about Creature.

Nook, as pointed out I have all of 40 posts, an ISO isn't difficult. And if you have questions aout my stance after that, you can ask me. I have no problem answering questions, but I am not going to go on about this one person anymore when you don't agree. If what I said before didn't sway your opinion I wouldn't expect repeating it ad nauseum would somehow make a difference. And I don't have more information than you, so if you don't believe it and you have the shot, whatever man. I can't control that. I'd rather do something else today.

NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Mon Feb 14, 2022 8:34 pm
Spacedaisy wrote: ↑Mon Feb 14, 2022 8:23 pm
NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Mon Feb 14, 2022 8:12 pm
Spacedaisy wrote: ↑Mon Feb 14, 2022 8:09 pm
Creature wrote: ↑Mon Feb 14, 2022 7:38 pm
falcon45ca wrote: ↑Mon Feb 14, 2022 7:35 pm
Creature wrote: ↑Mon Feb 14, 2022 7:32 pm Did the rest of the wolves tell you to go hard on me today?
No, that was my intuition saying that.

Also, Space Daisy
Spacedaisy's case was like "creature is playing like textbook wolf but i don't tell you what the textbook wolf is" and "creature is posting hence wolf".
That was not my case, but whatever. I'm done talking about you. Nook has made it apparent he doesn't agree on you so I'm not wasting my time talking about someone I believe is wolf but will never be shot. I will instead be focusing on others today, probably doing some ISO's. But not tonight because I have to work my ass off tonight, fun times.
I'll shoot anyone if there's a good case for it, everyone is on the table today
You didn't agree with me before, I don't expect you to before, so I'm not wasting my time. You do what you think is best. I don't have extra information that you don't so if you don't see the same things I do, I don't care and I don't want to waste time talking about them more.

DDL's sudden flip on Creature is an unexpected change for no clear reason.
This is supremely unhelpful lol, by this logic I may as well just shoot at random

I don't see the point in repeating myself. I don't see why me not discussing Creature anymore since you don't agree, and instead looking at other people again is unhelpful.

NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Mon Feb 14, 2022 8:12 pm
Spacedaisy wrote: ↑Mon Feb 14, 2022 8:09 pm
Creature wrote: ↑Mon Feb 14, 2022 7:38 pm
falcon45ca wrote: ↑Mon Feb 14, 2022 7:35 pm
Creature wrote: ↑Mon Feb 14, 2022 7:32 pm Did the rest of the wolves tell you to go hard on me today?
No, that was my intuition saying that.

Also, Space Daisy
Spacedaisy's case was like "creature is playing like textbook wolf but i don't tell you what the textbook wolf is" and "creature is posting hence wolf".
That was not my case, but whatever. I'm done talking about you. Nook has made it apparent he doesn't agree on you so I'm not wasting my time talking about someone I believe is wolf but will never be shot. I will instead be focusing on others today, probably doing some ISO's. But not tonight because I have to work my ass off tonight, fun times.
I'll shoot anyone if there's a good case for it, everyone is on the table today

You didn't agree with me before, I don't expect you to before, so I'm not wasting my time. You do what you think is best. I don't have extra information that you don't so if you don't see the same things I do, I don't care and I don't want to waste time talking about them more.

DDL's sudden flip on Creature is an unexpected change for no clear reason.

Creature wrote: ↑Mon Feb 14, 2022 8:10 pm
Spacedaisy wrote: ↑Mon Feb 14, 2022 8:09 pm
Creature wrote: ↑Mon Feb 14, 2022 7:38 pm
falcon45ca wrote: ↑Mon Feb 14, 2022 7:35 pm
Creature wrote: ↑Mon Feb 14, 2022 7:32 pm Did the rest of the wolves tell you to go hard on me today?
No, that was my intuition saying that.

Also, Space Daisy
Spacedaisy's case was like "creature is playing like textbook wolf but i don't tell you what the textbook wolf is" and "creature is posting hence wolf".
That was not my case, but whatever. I'm done talking about you. Nook has made it apparent he doesn't agree on you so I'm not wasting my time talking about someone I believe is wolf but will never be shot. I will instead be focusing on others today, probably doing some ISO's. But not tonight because I have to work my ass off tonight, fun times.
That would be very appreciated.

Don't act like I haven't talked about anyone else.

Creature wrote: ↑Mon Feb 14, 2022 7:38 pm
falcon45ca wrote: ↑Mon Feb 14, 2022 7:35 pm
Creature wrote: ↑Mon Feb 14, 2022 7:32 pm Did the rest of the wolves tell you to go hard on me today?
No, that was my intuition saying that.

Also, Space Daisy
Spacedaisy's case was like "creature is playing like textbook wolf but i don't tell you what the textbook wolf is" and "creature is posting hence wolf".

That was not my case, but whatever. I'm done talking about you. Nook has made it apparent he doesn't agree on you so I'm not wasting my time talking about someone I believe is wolf but will never be shot. I will instead be focusing on others today, probably doing some ISO's. But not tonight because I have to work my ass off tonight, fun times.

Creature wrote: ↑Sun Feb 13, 2022 10:01 am
Spacedaisy wrote: ↑Sat Feb 12, 2022 11:39 pm I fully suspect that when they took out those two posters, the wolves are stepping in to fill the void. When the night ended I sat back to watch and see who did that. Unsurprisingly Creature and DDL. Two people are already felt suspicious of.
Ftr I was already the second top poster at the end of day 2. All my posts today were oriented towards game solving.

If anything, Dyslexicon's posts felt contentless the most.

Every time I say to myself that the most logical wolf behavior would be XYZ, Creature is doing exactly that.
Oh, when said "teXTboOk wOlLFlaY" turns out to be completely wrong. We've all been there before.

Maybe so. But I’ll end up being an incorrect civ. It happens, but I’m not going to back down on my suspicion because the person I suspect says “everyone always thinks that about me.” I see what I see about you, and I think you are bad.

Dragon D. Luffy wrote: ↑Sun Feb 13, 2022 5:57 am
Spacedaisy wrote: ↑Sat Feb 12, 2022 11:39 pm First of Creature, I didn't do anything discreetly, I flat out explained the only reason I had him in my PoE was because I had no reason to eliminate him.

I don't know you, but I can see how you are acting in this game and it is so beyond shady.

I'm positive of only Dizzy, and I feel really confident in Guillo town, based on how his posts read to me. Urist I feel fairly confident in too, but not fully able to dismiss.

Everyone else is in my PoE.

Wilgy, do me a favor and give me a little bit more to chew on from you. I fully suspect that when they took out those two posters, the wolves are stepping in to fill the void. When the night ended I sat back to watch and see who did that. Unsurprisingly Creature and DDL. Two people are already felt suspicious of.

I would like to hear some thoughts from you so I can work out where to put you in my reads. I want to trust you, but I have no reason to eliminate you. Help me out. Who all do you still have in your PoE and why?

[VOTE: Creature] aubergine

Every time I say to myself that the most logical wolf behavior would be XYZ, Creature is doing exactly that.
There are some serious theather vibes coming from this post.

I don’t even know what that means

falcon45ca wrote: ↑Sun Feb 13, 2022 1:38 am
Spacedaisy wrote: ↑Sat Feb 12, 2022 11:41 pm Those Dizzy votes look really shady to me. Again, so not a shock. Dizzy is like the only person I fully trust right now. Those votes make zero sense.
How do you read Dizzy's vote on themselves?

You've mentioned Creature, what's your take on DDL? Do you have reads on players not on Dizzy's wagon?

I have a list of all my reads from the end of the last day just before Nook shot sig.

I don’t think much about dizzy’s vote because he has come across like he’s been having a tough time or something has him down.

Creature and DDL are my current top suspicions. I’ve gone back and forth on you.

I feel better about Guillo and Urist.

I can’t currently get a read on Wilgy, his only justification for voting creature was to sheep me. Regular gimmicky Wilgy regardless of alignment.

HK and you are the two I have still in My PoE that I go back and forth about. I’ve felt you are town at times and wolf at others. I’ll have to give you some ISOs today maybe.

Now back to catch up on whatever came after.

Those Dizzy votes look really shady to me. Again, so not a shock. Dizzy is like the only person I fully trust right now. Those votes make zero sense.

First of Creature, I didn't do anything discreetly, I flat out explained the only reason I had him in my PoE was because I had no reason to eliminate him.

I don't know you, but I can see how you are acting in this game and it is so beyond shady.

I'm positive of only Dizzy, and I feel really confident in Guillo town, based on how his posts read to me. Urist I feel fairly confident in too, but not fully able to dismiss.

Everyone else is in my PoE.

Wilgy, do me a favor and give me a little bit more to chew on from you. I fully suspect that when they took out those two posters, the wolves are stepping in to fill the void. When the night ended I sat back to watch and see who did that. Unsurprisingly Creature and DDL. Two people are already felt suspicious of.

I would like to hear some thoughts from you so I can work out where to put you in my reads. I want to trust you, but I have no reason to eliminate you. Help me out. Who all do you still have in your PoE and why?

[VOTE: Creature] aubergine

Every time I say to myself that the most logical wolf behavior would be XYZ, Creature is doing exactly that.

Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Fri Feb 11, 2022 7:21 pm
Spacedaisy wrote: ↑Fri Feb 11, 2022 7:19 pm Ok, I just did a complete read through again to get my feet under me.

I feel confident that the following are town
NAA
Guillo
Dizzy

I feel somewhat confident in these as town
Urist
Marmot

I have no read on wilgy

I believe the wolves are among these:
Creature
HK
Falcon
DDL
Sig

I’d probably include Wilgy in a PoE simply out of principle. No real read so I can’t eliminate him from a PoE.

Sorry I can’t get it down to just four yet Nook, but that is where I’m at right now.
I'm curious as to what your read on me and DDL especially entails?

Your post about Michelle before she flipped serves no purpose as a wolf. If you were wolf, you knew she would flip wolf. It would have served you better to not say it if you were wolf. You are definitely town.

The only person who commented on it was sig, I thought at first it made me read him town too, but I think that could easily be manipulated by a wolf too so he remains where he is.

I feel pretty sure that Creature is mafia, and Creature listed you and DDL together in the list of people they weren't sure of. When I saw it I thought, if Creature is bad they are probably one wolf one town. I feel confident you are town so I looked at DDL. His tone has seemed genuine in frustration, but I don't think it means anything because he is annoyed with a player for things connected to a previous game. I think that it might be interpersonal conflict and have no desire to focus on it at all. He did however suggest we use 5 or 6 protects on Nook each night during the mech discussion. I think we would fly through our protections at that rate and it would be an easy move as a wolf to suggest something that looks towny in motivation but really is a bad move for us. So I had him as bad at that point. Then when I came back after finishing reading through the thread, I found his read of me where he questioned my timing. I mean come one, there were like three or so people in a row who listed me as a possible shot target for Nook that they would be ok with in a row. That was why I questioned why I was in people's lists all of a sudden. There is nothing questionable about my timing at all.

Could I be wrong about DDL, maybe. I just didn't feel good about his suggestion of five or six protects being used every night. I'm no math person and even I thought that would be excessive.

Ok, I just did a complete read through again to get my feet under me.

I feel confident that the following are town
NAA
Guillo
Dizzy

I feel somewhat confident in these as town
Urist
Marmot

I have no read on wilgy

I believe the wolves are among these:
Creature
HK
Falcon
DDL
Sig

I’d probably include Wilgy in a PoE simply out of principle. No real read so I can’t eliminate him from a PoE.

Sorry I can’t get it down to just four yet Nook, but that is where I’m at right now.

There has been literally zero sense about why I’d be mafia at all. The only reasoning anyone has given was because of some assumptions about what drives the mafia kill and then presumption it is me by people who have literally never played with me before so I have no idea how I’m even in this list in the first place.

NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Fri Feb 11, 2022 2:09 pm
Marmot wrote: ↑Fri Feb 11, 2022 2:08 pm
NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Fri Feb 11, 2022 2:06 pm I expect your socky 2022 nominations
I'll fudge the votes in your favor, don't worry.
Ok, I want best newcomer this year. I didn't play the minimum amount to no longer be considered a rookie.

Nah, I’m angling for best newcomer.

NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Fri Feb 11, 2022 11:26 am Everyone knows their rolls for tonight?

60 if we kill trash panda
55 if we kill giant panda

Thank you for this so I don’t have to go search for it again.

*hid wolves

Creature wrote: ↑Fri Feb 11, 2022 9:58 am One can pretty much talk about mechanics yet recognize wolves' easiest thing to do is talk about mechanics.

Yeah and what you did was complain that there was so much mech talk (you called it sad) and implied it was a bust and his wolves. Completely overlooking your own role in it. I don’t believe you.

DrWilgy wrote: ↑Fri Feb 11, 2022 10:41 am Sheep Daisy. Rest of game. Bless.

I’ve missed you Wilgy. Also say hello to Wilgette for me.

Creature wrote: ↑Thu Feb 10, 2022 10:35 pm [VOTE: Spacedaisy] aubergine

You know what gets me about you? You went one about mechanics. Then you turned around and said you thought talking mechanics was a way mafia was hiding (after nearly 2/3 of your posts were about mechanics). And now you are saying you want to lynch someone who wasn't all about mechanics. You are shady as hell my friend.

[VOTE: Creature] aubergine

P.S. Not being mechanics minded and not being math minded are two different things. I was engaged in the mechanics conversation. I deferred in the end to someone who is math minded.

I arrived at my location tonight btw. So I can keep up and play fairly consistently at least for week until I go home again.

they were in the thick of it. I hope they weren't weeing anywhere inappropriate but I can't claim to know that.

NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Thu Feb 10, 2022 10:08 pm I take the falcon read back.

I would shoot Sig, creature or spacedaisy

Hi @Spacedaisy nice to finally get a game with you. Welcome to The Syndicate, Nanook has a gun... He went out onto his front porch and shouted NRA... And they delivered a gun within 10 minutes.

Nice to play with you. I appreciate the welcome, but perhaps I should to introduce myself, I'm one of the two founders of The Syndicate.

Also, shooting me would be a mistake as I'm not a trash panda.

I thought I was reading Creature civ, but the sudden turn and claim to be suspicious of mech talk hiding trash pandas has me

considering they wee in the thick of it. I'd put my vote there.

I’m about to be driving eleven hours for the day to head to Florida. So I won’t be posting much after I leave in like an hour until I reach the hotel.

Urist wrote: ↑Wed Feb 09, 2022 1:14 pm kill one of the people who were complaining about math being hard and you'll prob hit mafia

Complaining about not being good at math doesn’t make me mafia. It’s not like I was saying don’t do math. I was saying I hate math so someone else do it. I’m of the opinion (and have been from the start) that locking in on a plan of action as early as possible that gives us the best chance of keeping nook safe. Do we sacrifice some scum hunting time in the process? Maybe, but I think there has already been some interesting stuff said.

Creature wrote: ↑Wed Feb 09, 2022 12:58 pm The easiest thing for wolves to do is to talk about mech. It's a little sad we focused so much on mech talking and couldn't even have a proper game start to have an idea of where to go.

Interesting sentiment since like 19 or so of your 29 posts in thread were about mech.

NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Wed Feb 09, 2022 2:47 am
NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Wed Feb 09, 2022 2:09 am
Urist wrote: ↑Wed Feb 09, 2022 12:33 am s = scum remaining
t = town remaining
d = doctor shots remaining
Pn = odds of protecting nanook
Po = odds of protecting someone else (the target is left to the individual panda's discretion)

Pn = (d / s) * (1 - (t / (s + t)))

Po = Pn / 3

In general, the odds of nanook being unprotected by anyone are (1 - Pn) ^ t

So on night one, regardless of who's eliminated, the probabilities work out to...
Pn = (4 / 4) * (1 - (10 / (4 + 10))) = ~28.6%
Po = Pn / 3 = ~9.5%
The chance of nanook being unprotected is only ~3.5% which is close to ideal imo. Anything under 2% is too low because we'll likely run out of protects too quickly.

I think this formula achieves the goals of:
1) making a protect on nanook more likely if scum have fewer players left alive.
2) making a protect less likely if you've already protected before.
3) allowing a small chance of protecting a townie who isn't nanook, to give the opportunity for saves in other places.
Odd Nights
Panda % No Save % Save
10 0.666666667 0.333333333
9 0.633333333 0.366666667
8 0.6 0.4
7 0.55 0.45
6 0.5 0.5
5 0.45 0.55
4 0.35 0.65
3 0.25 0.75
2 0.15 0.85

Even Nights
Panda % No Save % Save
9 0.6 0.4
8 0.55 0.45
7 0.5 0.5
6 0.45 0.55
5 0.35 0.65
4 0.25 0.75
3 0.1 0.9
2 0 1

Realistically, @NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME has max 2 miss-chops. If we stick to this, only using saves on Nanook, then by N5 (which is the longest we have to hold out in this scenario) we should on average have 1.8 saves per player on average... This is basically a worst-case winning scenario calculated based on the misschops being D1 & D2. Misschops later in the game offer more flexibility than early.
I don't think we should talk night strategy past this - On N2 if you still have 4 saves, and you miss Nanook, you can try to make a play...

Even though I don't know how mechanically sound that is.

I don’t understand what you are saying.

::shrug:: I don't believe anything is sustainable, and nothing I presented is original, so it doesn't hurt my feelings. Basically, I'll go with whatever plan we all determine is our best shot if it keeps me from having to think about more math. :P

Oh god, more math.

I'm thinking about it, and I like the dice roll idea, but it's statistics, and just because it's low doesn't mean it can't happen. If somehow no one protects Nook and he gets hit, we're done. We can't risk that.

What if we mix the ideas of stacking protects and dice roll. Something like, stack protection on Nook, two on one kill nights, and three on two kill nights. And then everyone else rolls to possibly protect someone else (either one of the ones protecting Nook or someone else they think might be at risk), or themselves, or not protect at all? Because if they mafia know who is unprotected, it makes it easy for them to pick us off. But we can't risk completely random because we might accidentally end up with nook unprotected, right?

Someone want to do math on that? Is it sustainable for the length of the game or are we going to run out of kills too quickly if we stack too methodically on Nook?

NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Tue Feb 08, 2022 10:14 pm Anyways I'm not gonna post much, you guys do your thing

Oh, maybe hk was saying that Nook not posting much is a good plan. Not sure either, if this makes a difference, but I can understand Nook wanting to observe more than interact.

hollowkatt wrote: ↑Tue Feb 08, 2022 10:16 pm that's probably ideal from nanook tbh to just read and maybe react to pings or something like that

Are you saying he should only read and react to pings? If so,weird take. He controls the elimination, I think he should probably be up to speed on what is happening in the thread.

Oh and also, currently reading Guillo and Creature as town.

[/quote]

Urist wrote: ↑Wed Feb 09, 2022 12:33 am s = scum remaining
t = town remaining
d = doctor shots remaining
Pn = odds of protecting nanook
Po = odds of protecting someone else (the target is left to the individual panda's discretion)

Pn = (d / s) * (1 - (t / (s + t)))

Po = Pn / 3

In general, the odds of nanook being unprotected by anyone are (1 - Pn) ^ t

So on night one, regardless of who's eliminated, the probabilities work out to...
Pn = (4 / 4) * (1 - (10 / (4 + 10))) = ~28.6%
Po = Pn / 3 = ~9.5%
The chance of nanook being unprotected is only ~3.5% which is close to ideal imo. Anything under 2% is too low because we'll likely run out of protects too quickly.

I think this formula achieves the goals of:
1) making a protect on nanook more likely if scum have fewer players left alive.
2) making a protect less likely if you've already protected before.
3) allowing a small chance of protecting a townie who isn't nanook, to give the opportunity for saves in other places.

I am not good with the math, this made my brain melt.

I liked the idea of the dice roll, because it makes it harder for the mafia to manipulate. However, it also makes it less like we can gain any information from a NK either because they are literally just taking a shot in the dark. Votes won't really give us much information either because they don't mean anything. A wolf can bus their teammate easily because their vote is meaningless in the end since Nook chooses who dies. This will make it a lot harder to sus out who is suspicious. This feels a bit like a crap shoot. I didn't really pay attention to the setup before I joined, so I didn't even realize this was how it was setup.

Given it's a crap shoot, I can't see any benefit to claiming, so maybe let's go with the dice rolling idea. However, can we modify it? Like, if you roll anything other than a three you roll again to see if you protect someone else or yourself, or something like that? Would that lower the chances they will thin our numbers out too quickly? I'll leave answering that to the mathematicians of the group.

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Re: Pandas vs Trash Pandas [Day 2]

Re: Pandas vs Trash Pandas [Day 2]

Re: Pandas vs Trash Pandas [Day 2]

Re: Pandas vs Trash Pandas [Day 2]

Re: Pandas vs Trash Pandas [Day 2]

Re: Pandas vs Trash Pandas [Day 2]

Re: Pandas vs Trash Pandas [Day 2]

Re: Pandas vs Trash Pandas [Day 2]

Re: Pandas vs Trash Pandas [Day 2]

Re: Pandas vs Trash Pandas [Day 2]

Re: Pandas vs Trash Pandas [Day 1]

Re: Pandas vs Trash Pandas [Day 1]

Re: Pandas vs Trash Pandas [Day 1]

Re: Pandas vs Trash Pandas [Day 1]

Re: Pandas vs Trash Pandas [Day 1]

Re: Pandas vs Trash Pandas [Day 1]

Re: Pandas vs Trash Pandas [Day 1]

Re: Pandas vs Trash Pandas [Day 1]

Re: Pandas vs Trash Pandas [Day 1]

Re: Pandas vs Trash Pandas [Day 1]