The Syndicate

And the more I think on it, the less I can see a world where the last two are Wilgy/Shen. I think maybe Shen town read Wilgy too much to be a teammate. Maybe. Meh.

I honestly don’t know if Dolby was caused by a town role or a mafia role. Anything is possible. Right now, I think we need to focus on deciding between me, Shen, and Falcon. It’s our safest bet here. I think personally Falcon is the sure shot because now I’m questioning whether the second is Wilgy or Shen.

Cape90 wrote: ↑Wed Jul 27, 2022 6:51 pm

Spacedaisy wrote: ↑Tue Jul 26, 2022 10:31 pm Regarding Dolby, I don't have any idea what their role is or why they were subbed in for me. I only had chat with them while they replaced me until the new day started when I was returned to the game. I don't know if they were wolf or town even. All I know is they subbed for me, I wasn't allowed to post, they were told my role, and we had a private chat for that time.

Dolby suspected Shen and trusted Wilgy.

But I have no idea if Dolby was town and could be trusted. Given the fact I was never told Dolby's role or alignment, I can't go by just what they said because it could easily have been a baddie role or mechanic. But nothing in their limited interaction with me in the chat made me think they were bad. I was largely absent there as well.

Spacedaisy wrote: ↑Tue Jul 26, 2022 10:49 pm I apparently fucked up my multiquotes, but I just ISOed Marmot, and the reality is Marmot only gave me weak town read at best, and everytime he did he also pointed out reasons to suspect me. He made such a huge point to say I created the tie that I really don't believe I did, while he ignored the shadowvote from HK which probably actually created the tie that he then attempted to break in favor of Sabi. His last read of me outright said it was me and falcon as a team. That would be an insane read to leave if falcon and I are the remaining mafia. That's because I'm not mafia and he's just trying to shade me.

I'm done defending and now I'm going to look back at Shen and Wilgy.

If Dolby was mafia aligned, I believe it would make Wilgy bad, but my gut says Wilgy is town. We'll see if that changes after an ISO. And again, if Dolby is mafia aligned, then Shen is probably good. But the fact Shen just dropped a vote on me and left and is so focused on getting me eliminated does not look like a thinking townie. A townie should want to be certain, Shen is banking on convincing people quickly before I can defend against anything. I don't like the look. Especially because it doesn't make sense when examined next to my actual actions. The only problematic thing about me is that I had a soft town lean on dya Day 1.

The flaw with thinking that Dolby is mafia here from your POV if you are town is

How do we vote them out right now?

Why would there just be some unkillable mafia in this game as of right now?

I’m not saying there is an unkillable mafia role and it’s Dolby. I’m saying a mafia player in this game had the ability to create this sub in using Dolby in order to learn my role, act on my behalf and possibly make me look bad, and feed any info from me to the mafia or any bad info to me.

Why would there be a civ reason to have a role that randomly subs someone in for you for one day for no reason?

Dolby hard core read Wilgy town to me in our chat as well. There is the possibility of a Wilgy/falcon pairing possibility.

I was never told Dolby’s role or why the sub in occurred. It has nothing to do with my role because I am VT and at the start of our chat Dolby was told that. The fact I was given no info on it is why I am concerned it was a mafia role behind Dolby’s sub in. But I honestly don’t know what his alignment was.

Shending_Help wrote: ↑Wed Jul 27, 2022 6:43 pm

Spacedaisy wrote: ↑Wed Jul 27, 2022 6:42 pm The fact two wolves haven’t just come in and hammered me yet, should tell you that either myself or Shen is wolf. I know it’s not me, so Shen has to be wolf here. I am VT.

In the world where falcon is W with let's say Wilgy , how would wolves hammer?

Already brought this up myself before your post. See below.

Spacedaisy wrote: ↑Wed Jul 27, 2022 6:42 pm Unless it’s Falcon as the other wolf and he’s just not going to show up. Meehhh. But it makes no sense why Wilgy wouldn’t have voted me already if he is wolf.

No hammer on me already could mean I’m wolf, you’re wolf, or Falcon is wolf.

Unless it’s Falcon as the other wolf and he’s just not going to show up. Meehhh. But it makes no sense why Wilgy wouldn’t have voted me already if he is wolf.

The fact two wolves haven’t just come in and hammered me yet, should tell you that either myself or Shen is wolf. I know it’s not me, so Shen has to be wolf here. I am VT.

Cape90 wrote: ↑Mon Jul 25, 2022 5:04 pm

Spacedaisy wrote: ↑Sun Jul 24, 2022 1:31 am Shen I would like to look at more because i feel a bit blank there

Shen posted a lot so idk how you have like 0 opinions there

Because I have never played with him before, and I tend to play by gut. He didn't attract my attention, so I knew I needed to go back and look specifically at what he said. it's easier to get gut feels for people you are familiar with, but when you are skimming to try and keep up and pretty much failing at being present in the game, it's hard to have a read on someone you don't know. Also, totally was distracted by the bizarre reaction from Marmot to my vote on HK.

Cape90 wrote: ↑Tue Jul 26, 2022 7:34 pm I really think I am in for voting falcon or Spacedaisy.

Shending, you still have not gave opinions on what you think of the whole Spacedaisy and Dolby having a secret chat thing or whatever

This is a mistake, you're going the easy route here and I'm pretty certain you are town, which I will explain my reasoning for once I complete this ISO on you.

Cape90 wrote: ↑Tue Jul 26, 2022 7:48 pm

Spoiler: show

Marmot wrote: ↑Thu Jul 21, 2022 5:09 pm

Spacedaisy wrote: ↑Tue Jul 19, 2022 6:21 am

Marmot wrote: ↑Mon Jul 18, 2022 9:02 am hollowkatt ( 7 ) Marmot, Spacedaisy, Wisdom, Cape90, DrWilgy, Seanzie, Sabiplz
sabiplz ( 3 ) Shending_Help, NotAnAxehole, hollowkatt
falcon45ca ( 1 ) dyachei
Wisdom ( 1 ) Alison
Not Voting ( 3 ) dunya, falcon45ca, Jackofhearts2005


Here's the vote count from EOD1 again.

I believe what happened was, in the final minute, Spacedaisy vote for hk to make it a tie between hk and sabi at 5-5. Then sean and I moved our votes from sabi to hk to break the tie.


If sabi is town, I think this is a decent look for Spacedaisy since she sheeped a TR's vote. Ties are scum-sided in this setup, but I SD didn't seem to notice she'd made it a tie, and I'm willing to believe that.

I did not make it a tie. My vote put him at 5 over i think Sabi or someone at 4. Then you all moved your votes, probably because I voted and then I posted my vote since I only had two minutes until the poll ended.

@Wisdom what I meant. By liking you, was that immediately before my vote, you said something that struck me as very townie and since I was very much going on hit reads of people, I liked the look. I was already leaning voting he because sabi didn’t read to my gut as bad, so when I saw you had also voted there, I felt more confident in that choice based on my limited info at that time.

Back to catching up now.

Spacedaisy wrote: ↑Sat Jul 16, 2022 7:01 pm It wasn’t a tie when I voted I don’t believe. Or if it was I didn’t know it.

There's a disconnect in these two posts from Spacedaisy. On EOD1, she claimed to not make the Day 1 vote a tie. On Day 2, she also claimed to not break a tie.

I'm oretty darn certain that Spacedaisy made the vote a tie, and Sean and I broke the tie. It's possible someone else was moving votes at the time too, but I don't think it was anyone but Spacedaisy.


I don't think either of these actions are scummy (and breaking the tie would be townie), but I think it's odd that she denied doing either of them.


I wish she could be here to talk about it, but we have Dolby who doesn't know.

Dolby wrote: ↑Wed Jul 20, 2022 7:20 pm

Shending_Help wrote: ↑Wed Jul 20, 2022 7:15 pm @Wisdom gg friend, was nice finding each other In a game for once. I had a feeling you weren't gonna be allowed to stick around

Sorry sabi

@Dolby heyo! Gonna be interesting to see if an outside perspective is gonna land in the same towncore as most of the ppl alrdy playing have

How much have you read?

Imma be blunt

I think your post surrounding HK up to about 150 (where I’ve read to) are wolfy.

Wilgy is probs town

I have a chat with Spacedaisy and she thinks that Dunya is a wolf and marmot is town and she kinda just dipped recently

1 min Before flip I called you/cape/Dunya the PoE

I'm glad we can have a fresh perspective on the game, but why do you think Cape and dunya are poe? I see your reasoning for Shen, I need to go back and look at those posts.



Overall, I still think Spacedaisy/Dolby are slight town or at least outer POE. Outer POE mostly due to lack of Spacedaisy sharing content or reads, but townie because of the Day 1 HK vote.

Marmot wrote: ↑Thu Jul 21, 2022 5:18 pm

DrWilgy wrote: ↑Thu Jul 21, 2022 11:48 am Marmot, am I still a scum read?

Reading your ISO now.

Today, I will not make the same mistake that I made yesterday, and attempt to conserve posts.

~~~~~~~~~

I still think you're town. I know I've waffled on your slot, but I've found your explanations for your reads believable, and more townie than not for you.

Both your reads on Jack and HK stemmed from experiences in previous games, and in particular, given that your read on Jack in P#602 was wrong (and he was town), I think it's more likely that you're town, because I think you would have trouble pushing someone like Jack if you were scum. I know I would, and I don't think of either of us as being good enough wolves for that.

Marmot wrote: ↑Thu Jul 21, 2022 11:42 pm

NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Tue Jul 19, 2022 7:06 pm sabiplz ( 4 ) Seanzie, dyachei, Wisdom, Shending_Help
dyachei ( 2 ) Cape90, DrWilgy
falcon45ca ( 1 ) dunya
Not Voting ( 4 ) falcon45ca, sabiplz, spacedaisy, marmot

Here's the VC from Day 2. I'm looking at this in the scenario that dya is a wolf who was saved.

Sean was the first vote on the Sabi wagon here (or at least that's how Nanook logged it).


I don't think that Shen is a wolf based on Sean's push today. If Sean and Shen are wolves, I don't think they would have much trouble winning this game, even if they were the only two wolves left.

This VC probably points to DrWilgy and Cape as town if dya is a wolf.

dunya is town either way


Which means that any of the final wolves could be in falcon/spacedaisy.


Hmmm.

Marmot wrote: ↑Fri Jul 22, 2022 9:14 am Cape is another possibility? He did prod at me last night when Sean was pushing me.

Marmot wrote: ↑Fri Jul 22, 2022 9:22 am

Seanzie wrote: ↑Fri Jul 22, 2022 9:15 am

Marmot wrote: ↑Fri Jul 22, 2022 9:10 am I did cross votes with Sean, but I've also already laid out why I think Hess a wolf here, albeit dunya explained it way better than I did.

Sean, can you not see why that makes sense from my pov?

Your reads on both me and Dya are purely associative, so no, I don't give associative reads much credit, and you don't hardpush like I do, so I don't see your read on me making much sense. You also say I didn't do much D1 when I was one of the biggest Alison critics and my vote (not yours) was the one who buried HK.

Where did I say you didn't do much Day 1?

Why are you now suddenly claiming to make the burying vote on hk? At the time, the votes all came in at the same time (albeit I think Spacedaisy made the tie). Why claim that now when I'm pushing you and not when it happened?

Inside the spoiler is some spew off of Marmot's posts. I think Marmot definately talked the least about Shending and DrWigly out of the alive players overall

Oh and Sean did look pretty spewed + he's dead so I mostly ignored anything concerning them.

This is a really good and probably important point.

Ok, I feel most confident in Cape as a town read. Where Shen looks like he is methodically trying to move votes the way he wants, he tries to look natural in progressions (not so successfully imo), his votes and reads look bad to me. On the other hand Cape looks like a townie, reacting to what he is reading in the game as he goes. There is not a methodical building of anything, there is simply logic or opinions in the moment. I can understand that, that is how I usually play too unless I'm in a position of necessity such as this one where we will lose the game if you misyeet me today.

I believe the remaining two mafia are either Shen/Wilgy or Shen/falcon. I lean towards Shen/falcon because I think it would be risky to hard town read your partner like Shen has all game with Wilgy. But I could be wrong there.

I'm going to stop posting now because I don't know what is happening with post cap nonsense, I've never played in a post cap game like this where it's a total so yeah.

DrWilgy wrote: ↑Tue Jul 26, 2022 8:06 pm

Shending_Help wrote: ↑Tue Jul 26, 2022 8:01 pm

DrWilgy wrote: ↑Tue Jul 26, 2022 7:57 pm Pretty sure remaining wolves are Shending Falcon.

If not that it's Daisy Falcon.

May as well just vote Falcon and go from there I think.

Very interesting. Why me over daisy?

Because you suggested Daisy as a line over Marmot yesterday, plus your shift in read on Marmot still feels awkward.

Also, I have no clue as to why'd you argue Daisy over Falcon.

Obvious answer is you needed to misyeet Diasy and the best way to do that was to bus Marmot when Sean was already all in, otherwise you reveal the full team.

Wilgy looks good to me. Only one bad vote out of four. And this post looks thoughtful, which is what we need from a civ today. Honestly, his post don't offer up a lot of content, but his votes and the content he does offer looks thoughtful and consistent to me, unlike Shen. I still lean town on Wilgy.

Shending_Help wrote: ↑Fri Jul 15, 2022 12:58 pm

DrWilgy wrote: ↑Fri Jul 15, 2022 11:25 am [VOTE: HK] aubergine is a wolf this game and is to be yeeted at last light.

This is an imperial decree and shall not be revoked.

i'm getting the weakest of townleans from this post

So

N0: SpaceDaisy

Slight V: Marmot

Sliiightly above rand: Wigly, Alison

Town read Marmot Day 1.

Shending_Help wrote: ↑Fri Jul 15, 2022 3:12 pm [VOTE: sabiplz] aubergine

im fine with HK wagon too ftr, but I think this is just as good

Voted for the civ over the wolf in Day 1.

Shending_Help wrote: ↑Sat Jul 16, 2022 6:23 am Villagers:
Shending
Spacedaisy

Very likely V:
-

Probably V:
Marmot
Axe
Wisdom

V? :
Sean
HK
Wigly

Null:
Rest

Wolfleans:
Sabiplz

Two known wolves were given town reads in this. Interesting I was chosen as the N0 cover from Shen. Why would someone who doesn't know me ever choose me? The only reason I can think is it makes sense is because I'm an absent player, so it allows Shen the freedom to go after active players while playing this fake cover bit.

Shending_Help wrote: ↑Fri Jul 15, 2022 3:12 pm [VOTE: sabiplz] aubergine

im fine with HK wagon too ftr, but I think this is just as good

Voted a player who had claimed a town PR, that we now know was Town, over the other wagon which we know was mafia.

Shending_Help wrote: ↑Sat Jul 16, 2022 4:35 pm

hollowkatt wrote: ↑Sat Jul 16, 2022 4:33 pm

Sabiplz wrote: ↑Sat Jul 16, 2022 3:51 pm

Meta case on hk

OK I isoed HK and I have first hand knowledge of mafia HK, wolfsided town HK, and town HK. The whole spectrum of HK. I will compare with his mu games so bear with me.

P#77 (I think I'm formating this correct) has no explanation of his reads. Doesn't expand or go into detail. Town HK and wolfsided town HK (Albert like V briefly) goes into somewhat detail of his reads. He usually just doesn't do townreads but includes other types of reads.

P#78 feels pockety. HK tends to do this in his town meta

P#87 HK when town tries to not ruffle feathers. The fact he keeps butting head with someone he supposedly tr and trying to pocket (which is conflicting from earlier) is not what he does as town.

Him constantly antagonizing her p#100. He does this thing where he twists what someone says to go under their skin. He has done this to me when maf. He loves blaming others for when he incorrectly sr them.

Last part p#124 is HK has their weird expectation where he needs people to do stuff that his brain decided is the only way to do things. That's NAI for him but just want to point that out.


Summery: he's more in his mafia range than not.

[VOTE: sabi] aubergine

You've literally got everything backwards, but ok

Ok I really like this reaction

HK prolly just V

Sure, that was a very convincing argument on the part of HK. Solid reason not to vote them...

Shending_Help wrote: ↑Mon Jul 18, 2022 8:48 am

Marmot wrote: ↑Mon Jul 18, 2022 8:39 am 2) I have a single Day 2 vig shot, and plan on using it after the second ITA window closes.

That's very Pog.

In other news: I'm like halfway through my re-read of the game, and my current towncore is:

Me
Wisdom
Sean
You
Cape
*slight gap*
Sabi (especially if Dya is a wolf, which is where i'm leaning. But *probably* town regardless)



I also wanna tell you that I think you're wrong where you in #199 townread Dya for her post that was complaining about Wisdom's V-read on her being not deserved.

That's a very Dyachei kind of post, but not an AI one IMO.

Anyway, more thoughts of mine coming in a while (that's mostly gonna be me justifying my towncore)

(I'm also retracting my Cop cover, so I don't have Spacedaisy as n0 anymore)

Shending_Help wrote: ↑Mon Jul 18, 2022 9:49 am

Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Mon Jul 18, 2022 9:42 am

Shending_Help wrote: ↑Mon Jul 18, 2022 9:16 am

dyachei wrote: ↑Mon Jul 18, 2022 9:09 am

Shending_Help wrote: ↑Mon Jul 18, 2022 9:01 am Then i find it quite concerning you have wisdom as concerning tbh

They should be the most clear person in the game from interactions with Alison/HK almost never being w/w ontop of shooting Alison when there were a lot of shots that would've been more consensus at the time. And Wisdom's general tone/solving/WIM is also one of the highest in the game. But even ignoring that last point, I feel your focus this game has been kind of off

I also have troubles with your post yesterday basically saying "Both HK and Alison I wanna leave alive til later before i try reading them, since they get easier to read over time".

you don't think it's weird she's attributing shit to me that I've never said? Like I didnt even have a read on marmot and my read on alison was I do better reading her later

You can't understand why that's concerning fmpov?

I think it's concerning that your view doesn't give off a holistic feeling.

Like, if person A has done a ton of things that should make them very town, and then that person does something that I find rand wolf, maybe I would call it out and question it and try to figure out if I could've been wrong there. But I wouldn't straight up call that person concerning without having the earlier things in mind.

It's different if a person I'm null on would say something that's rand wolf, THEN I might call that person straight up concerning.

It's different in my mind to call a *thing* as off, and what you did, "wisdom is really conerning me". That implies that person is higher on your suspect list and you want others to put focus there.

Which leads me to believe you're not trying to find a towncore but just looking for things to push on (preferably breaking up the current consensus towncore if it's correct), which is how wolves like to do things

I kinda feel the opposite.

In that there’s not very much wolf agenda to push Wisdom, who is never getting misyeeted itg. And if Dya really said those things and Wisdom is correct? What good is claiming misattribution going to do?

Contrast town Dya, who is giving those statements because they’re just true from their pov.

We were never in the world where Dya actually said those things and still claiming misattribution. I was never implying that and you missed my point if that's what you thought i was saying.

I'm saying V!dya would have a reason to go "oh this is weird but Wisdom is prolly still town for shooting Alison and not being w/w with HK" while W!dya would have a reason to ignore those things and see if they could make others tinfoil a bit on wisdom just in case that misyeet is needed further down the line

It's possible what Dya is saying is from a town!POV. That they really think it's NAI to push/shoot Alison because Alison would be a bussable slot for draft reasons. And that Dya thinks that the HK interactions aren't useful because of some reason I haven't seen Dya adress yet. And that Dya is ignoring Wisdom on principle because they are more confident in reading other people.

But I think the world where Dya is wolfing makes so much more sense

Simultaneously defending dya and also shading them in both those posts.

Shending_Help wrote: ↑Mon Jul 18, 2022 12:47 pm Reasons why Marmot is town:

Spoiler: show

Marmot wrote: ↑Fri Jul 15, 2022 10:52 pm

hollowkatt wrote: ↑Fri Jul 15, 2022 5:20 pm I feel like Wisdoms Alison comment is more likely true than NAAs Lime statement is if only because if Lime is so antagonistic to NAA forcing NAA to wolf would probably be funny as fuck to Lime. I know it would be to me.

LC forced you to wolf didn't he?

This feels kind of a... abrasive (?)... way of bussing. I don't know if I have the right words for it, but I feel like it's Marmot legit wondering if that's what happened, and not him knowing. (Small town-point)

---

Spoiler: show

Marmot wrote: ↑Fri Jul 15, 2022 10:56 pm Townreads thus far

NAA
Cape
Shendog
Wisdom

Null

Everyone else

I'm pretty confident all 4 people in this list are town. A good look. (Small town-point)

---

Spoiler: show

Alison wrote: ↑Sat Jul 16, 2022 2:32 am

Cape90 wrote: ↑Fri Jul 15, 2022 1:55 pm

Alison wrote: ↑Fri Jul 15, 2022 8:06 am Marmot's entrance is pretty townie.

What have they done that is AI?

Marmot's entranced was relaxed and comfortable. I think they tend to enter kinda stiffly as mafia, and sometimes even play it up because they enjoy leaning into suspicion as a wolf.

Alison wrote: ↑Sat Jul 16, 2022 2:33 am

Alison wrote: ↑Sat Jul 16, 2022 2:32 am

Cape90 wrote: ↑Fri Jul 15, 2022 1:55 pm

Alison wrote: ↑Fri Jul 15, 2022 8:06 am Marmot's entrance is pretty townie.

What have they done that is AI?

Marmot's entranced was relaxed and comfortable. I think they tend to enter kinda stiffly as mafia, and sometimes even play it up because they enjoy leaning into suspicion as a wolf.

Compare his entrance here to eg. GOC.

This feels like a TMI read that Alison really believes, rather than trying to force a townread on a partner. (Medium town-point)

---

Spoiler: show

Marmot wrote: ↑Sat Jul 16, 2022 12:19 pm I could see sabi and Alison being teammates based on sabi's treatment of Alison. But also they're two of the three leading wagons, so maybe that's a little bold.

I like the thought process, and i also like the tone of "so maybe that's a little bold". Feels uninformed. (small town-point)

----

Spoiler: show

Marmot wrote: ↑Mon Jul 18, 2022 8:39 am @Wisdom I think Wilgy is more likely to have himself bussed over bussing another teammate.

I also am trying to think of a world where mafia hellbussed hk, and given that he was a PR, it doesn't seem like an optimal solution. If there are 5-6 mafia, they had plenty of voting power. But maybe the mafia team is just low WIM, and that WIM dropped even lower after that Alison shot.

I realize now I had read the ITA rules incorrectly. I thought we each got a shot in each window, but the reality is that we only get one shot total, so there was no rush to use it.


The reason I was proposing a list and pushing that discussion forward was twofold

1) If there were a 6 wolves, then utilizing all of our KP to eliminate them is important to lower the mafia/town ratio quickly and finding a consensus for who to ITA would be helpful.
2) I have a single Day 2 vig shot, and plan on using it after the second ITA window closes.

Openly claiming a Dayvig as a wolf is usually not a good move. Now he has to shoot into the PoE if he doesn't wanna play the day setting up for a "heroshot" and try to justify himself afterwards when it flips town. So if he does have a dayvig, it's better to just shoot an Obv-town and stay silent. And if he doesn't have one then obviously ppl will realize that at EoD. (BIG town-point)

---

Spoiler: show

Marmot wrote: ↑Mon Jul 18, 2022 9:02 am hollowkatt ( 7 ) Marmot, Spacedaisy, Wisdom, Cape90, DrWilgy, Seanzie, Sabiplz
sabiplz ( 3 ) Shending_Help, NotAnAxehole, hollowkatt
falcon45ca ( 1 ) dyachei
Wisdom ( 1 ) Alison
Not Voting ( 3 ) dunya, falcon45ca, Jackofhearts2005


Here's the vote count from EOD1 again.

I believe what happened was, in the final minute, Spacedaisy vote for hk to make it a tie between hk and sabi at 5-5. Then sean and I moved our votes from sabi to hk to break the tie.


If sabi is town, I think this is a decent look for Spacedaisy since she sheeped a TR's vote. Ties are scum-sided in this setup, but I SD didn't seem to notice she'd made it a tie, and I'm willing to believe that.

I like this post, both content and tone ("and I'm willing to believe that"). Especially so if Spacedaisy is V (small town-point)

--------


Apart from these posts, I also remember liking Marmot's entry d1, which is a small +, and he felt natural every time I saw him around in the thread.

But ATP I don't even need all the other reasons, I'm pretty much fine calling him town just for the Dayvig-claim

ISO on Marmot resulting in a town read of him.

Shending_Help wrote: ↑Mon Jul 18, 2022 3:24 pm

Sabiplz wrote: ↑Mon Jul 18, 2022 11:01 am

Shending_Help wrote: ↑Mon Jul 18, 2022 8:48 am

Marmot wrote: ↑Mon Jul 18, 2022 8:39 am 2) I have a single Day 2 vig shot, and plan on using it after the second ITA window closes.

That's very Pog.

In other news: I'm like halfway through my re-read of the game, and my current towncore is:

Me
Wisdom
Sean
You
Cape
*slight gap*
Sabi (especially if Dya is a wolf, which is where i'm leaning. But *probably* town regardless)



I also wanna tell you that I think you're wrong where you in #199 townread Dya for her post that was complaining about Wisdom's V-read on her being not deserved.

That's a very Dyachei kind of post, but not an AI one IMO.

Anyway, more thoughts of mine coming in a while (that's mostly gonna be me justifying my towncore)

(I'm also retracting my Cop cover, so I don't have Spacedaisy as n0 anymore)

@Shending_Help any reason why you changed your mind on me?

Uh, it was mainly me being in the mindset of thinking Dya was maf at the time tbh. I still think you're V if Dya's W, but i've cooled down on what I said in that list (that you're probably town individually regardless)

I did like at the time how you talked about not getting a result and being confused, but I've landed at you being either town or mafia roleblocker, and it not being very AI even if i'm sure you're genuine in your reaction to lacking a result

You're not in my bottom tier currently, but you're also not really a townread like the top 4

Already walking back the wishy washy wolf read on dya.

Shending_Help wrote: ↑Mon Jul 18, 2022 3:39 pm And then i got Dunya with the potential derpclear (but doesn't have to be one) as my next 'maybe V' person.

And then probably Sabi still. Partly because my brain doesn't wanna accept that we were so right d1 as a group. But could still be Sabi, especially if dya is V.

Then we have Spacedaisy, falcon, jack, dya

I'm mainly trying to figure out which people can fit together and which can't between my bottom 4-5.

Cuz i'm pretty damn confident in my top 4 being town, and then anything can be true.


So to summarize:

Me
Wisdom
Marmot
Sean
.
.
Cape
.
.
.
.
DrWigly
.
Dunya
.
Sabi (likely not with dya)
.
Falcon
Jack
Dya (likely not with sabi)

Now dya is back to wolf? But still talking about Sabi, despite this read.

Shending_Help wrote: ↑Mon Jul 18, 2022 6:56 pm

Marmot wrote: ↑Mon Jul 18, 2022 6:48 pm Why is dya a wolf? I must have missed something in my catchup

PoE + Them giving both flipped wolves passes because "they become obvious later" + them having very limited amounts of reads if you look through the ISO. And their entry was literally giving 1 townread, and it was on Axe who died in the night. It doesn't feel like they really believe strongly in anything from what i've picked up.

And i really hated when they threw out the sus on wisdom earlier and gave the excuse of Alison being bussable and Wisdom being hard to read for them. Like, sure. I can see that influencing things, but to just ignore Wisdom literally being dead right on HK/Alison all d1 and pushing it hard + shooting Alison and then shading that person because Wisdom misremembered something? (which is in character for wisdom as well)

I'm not sure Dya is a wolf, but it's the best I got tbh

Calling dya wolf, but sowing doubt about it at the same time.

Shending_Help wrote: ↑Mon Jul 18, 2022 7:43 pm

dunya wrote: ↑Mon Jul 18, 2022 7:39 pm

Cape90 wrote: ↑Mon Jul 18, 2022 7:34 pm also dunya, why is your vote still on Alison?

i'm still isoing people

dya has three votes and i do not plan to pile on till i feel comfy to be there

falcon hasn't come in and talked, but i feel comfy to be there

somehow i loved it when seanzie took a shot at jack so i need to iso jack, but it felt like, ooooh i like this shot more than i like a shot at dya after i concluded jack may be pocketing them >.>

Jack is still in my PoE, but I kinda like how he seemingly naturally got to basically my exact PoE. He's clearing me/marmot/wisdom/wigly/Cape and has Sean/Sabi as his next towntier. That's basically my exact reads apart from swapping Sean/Wigly places.

But yeah, Dya i haven't felt any kind of process from

I think killing falcon before Dya is acceptable though

---------

@Jackofhearts2005
@falcon45ca
@Spacedaisy

there's like 15 min left if you wanna shoot your ITA shot

Shading dya while not actually wanting them dead first.

Shending_Help wrote: ↑Tue Jul 19, 2022 1:12 pm

Marmot wrote: ↑Fri Jul 15, 2022 7:50 am

Wisdom wrote: ↑Fri Jul 15, 2022 2:30 am Good thing to know for everyone who's bad at reading openings: There's a post cap of 60!

I'm not sure I get the whole draft system but there can be up to 6 wolves? (Even though the pick order says 8) 6/15 is still a lot.

I don't know how much we are allowed to talk about the drafting? I have thoughts!

Oh, and n0 Dunya!

My guess is that there is a lot of PRs given the size of the mafia team (but there does still seem to be VTs).

Given that 3 wolves out of 15 is scum-sided in mountainous setup, 6 wolves out of 15 would need a lot of PR to balance imo.

OH and Wisdom. If you want yet another reason why I'm town I'll bring up the fact that I had a strong PR read on Marmot from the very first page of d1 when I read the parenthesis of this post ("but there does still SEEM to be VTs").

He'd be n1'd every time if I was wolfing, for being both a consensus townread and very very likely PR

Unless you were teammates.

Shending_Help wrote: ↑Tue Jul 19, 2022 4:23 pm I still think there's exactly 1 wolf in dya/sabi and I've slowly over the 2nd part of this day moved to now thinking Sabi is the more likely wolf between them.

And I agree with dyas reaction to sabi saying their WIM is down. In this gamestate I think wolves would struggle keeping their WIM up. Especially if the consensus towncore of wisdom Marmot Sean me Cape (and potentially Wigly) are all correct (which I think it is) . The wolves would feel very boxed in

Shending_Help wrote: ↑Tue Jul 19, 2022 4:51 pm Kinda getting the feeling sabi is just accepting death today. I don't feel like that's V-sabi's style (IK it's happened in turbos but that's different)

There's the shuffle back to Sabi that was clearly coming all along. Nice attempt at making it look like a believable progression though, even though you give no solid reason for why.

Shending_Help wrote: ↑Wed Jul 20, 2022 7:15 pm @Wisdom gg friend, was nice finding each other In a game for once. I had a feeling you weren't gonna be allowed to stick around

Sorry sabi

@Dolby heyo! Gonna be interesting to see if an outside perspective is gonna land in the same towncore as most of the ppl alrdy playing have

How much have you read?

I don't recall seeing the vote from Shen claimed in the thread, but clearly voted Sabi.

Shending_Help wrote: ↑Wed Jul 20, 2022 7:54 pm I'll do some looking tomorrow bout different constellations, but currently I'm leaning towards a Dya vote

I need to look at the votes and see if Shen's vote actually went to dya. If so, point in their favor.

This past vote Shen spent the day saying repeatedly they didn't believe Marmot was wolf, but seemed to end up following that vote when they couldn't convince the others of me or falcon. A vote on Marmot at least looks good for Shen, but the numerous posts spent trying to change the course of that vote before it happened does not. I'll have to look and see what the vote counts were and if their vote made a difference. I'll look at the vote tallies next, assuming the host has them in thread. I haven't been watching closely enough to know.

OK, looking at votes, Shen did vote dya. One good look for them. And their vote on Marmot was the hammer, also a town look. Of course, the voters left outstanding were myself and falcon (usually absent) Marmot and Wilgy. Marmot was also MIA, so no other vote seemed likely to get going. Still, I think generally a town look.

The two points that make me feel civ on Shen are the votes for dya and Marmot.
The multiple points that make me feel wolf on Shen are the way they tried to move the wagons away from dya and Marmot on numerous occasions, they voted for a civ twice both times when the other possible wagon was a wolf, they dropped an early vote on me and walked away when it's pretty crucial we get this right.

Sidenote, if Shen is wolf, I am afraid of a Wilgy/Shen pairing. Shen has town read them pretty consistently throughout the game and it could be pocketing or it could be that they're teammates. This thought scares me, frankly. If it's the case we are screwed. If Shen is bad, they have extensively talked about shooting or eliminating them, so either they think it's an acceptable loss to help them gain town cred, or falcon is not bad. Again, if that is the case it is a scary thought.

I'm not 100% convinced of Shen being bad, but I feel like the majority of the evidence looks really bad for them and their last couple votes look more like cutting their losses and trying to make themselves look less bad when they know they can't stop the elimination. Still, those votes do give me major reason to pause and consider before I'd cast a vote there.

Off to read Wilgy and then Cape. Is there a post cap today?

I apparently fucked up my multiquotes, but I just ISOed Marmot, and the reality is Marmot only gave me weak town read at best, and everytime he did he also pointed out reasons to suspect me. He made such a huge point to say I created the tie that I really don't believe I did, while he ignored the shadowvote from HK which probably actually created the tie that he then attempted to break in favor of Sabi. His last read of me outright said it was me and falcon as a team. That would be an insane read to leave if falcon and I are the remaining mafia. That's because I'm not mafia and he's just trying to shade me.

I'm done defending and now I'm going to look back at Shen and Wilgy.

If Dolby was mafia aligned, I believe it would make Wilgy bad, but my gut says Wilgy is town. We'll see if that changes after an ISO. And again, if Dolby is mafia aligned, then Shen is probably good. But the fact Shen just dropped a vote on me and left and is so focused on getting me eliminated does not look like a thinking townie. A townie should want to be certain, Shen is banking on convincing people quickly before I can defend against anything. I don't like the look. Especially because it doesn't make sense when examined next to my actual actions. The only problematic thing about me is that I had a soft town lean on dya Day 1.

Regarding Dolby, I don't have any idea what their role is or why they were subbed in for me. I only had chat with them while they replaced me until the new day started when I was returned to the game. I don't know if they were wolf or town even. All I know is they subbed for me, I wasn't allowed to post, they were told my role, and we had a private chat for that time.

Dolby suspected Shen and trusted Wilgy.

But I have no idea if Dolby was town and could be trusted. Given the fact I was never told Dolby's role or alignment, I can't go by just what they said because it could easily have been a baddie role or mechanic. But nothing in their limited interaction with me in the chat made me think they were bad. I was largely absent there as well.

Shending_Help wrote: ↑Tue Jul 26, 2022 8:12 pm

DrWilgy wrote: ↑Tue Jul 26, 2022 8:06 pm

Shending_Help wrote: ↑Tue Jul 26, 2022 8:01 pm

DrWilgy wrote: ↑Tue Jul 26, 2022 7:57 pm Pretty sure remaining wolves are Shending Falcon.

If not that it's Daisy Falcon.

May as well just vote Falcon and go from there I think.

Very interesting. Why me over daisy?

Because you suggested Daisy as a line over Marmot yesterday, plus your shift in read on Marmot still feels awkward.

Also, I have no clue as to why'd you argue Daisy over Falcon.

Obvious answer is you needed to misyeet Diasy and the best way to do that was to bus Marmot when Sean was already all in, otherwise you reveal the full team.

What about it was awkward?

Dya was pushing super hard to get falcon killed before she died and spearheaded a Cfd on him d1.
And daisy hasn't been towny when here Imo
And Dolby came into the game with a very wolfy POE of me/cape/dunya (I'm almost sure this = 3 townies)

Sure I still think falc /daisy is the most likely team, but your game view is making me very sacred of a you/daisy world

How is it not towny to vote out a mafia member on Day1, when I easily could have gone the other way and saved them? It's like the primary thing I actually HAVE done in this game. The rest of my time has been being largely absent, not acting anti-town.

Shending_Help wrote: ↑Tue Jul 26, 2022 8:12 pm

DrWilgy wrote: ↑Tue Jul 26, 2022 8:06 pm

Shending_Help wrote: ↑Tue Jul 26, 2022 8:01 pm

DrWilgy wrote: ↑Tue Jul 26, 2022 7:57 pm Pretty sure remaining wolves are Shending Falcon.

If not that it's Daisy Falcon.

May as well just vote Falcon and go from there I think.

Very interesting. Why me over daisy?

Because you suggested Daisy as a line over Marmot yesterday, plus your shift in read on Marmot still feels awkward.

Also, I have no clue as to why'd you argue Daisy over Falcon.

Obvious answer is you needed to misyeet Diasy and the best way to do that was to bus Marmot when Sean was already all in, otherwise you reveal the full team.

What about it was awkward?

Dya was pushing super hard to get falcon killed before she died and spearheaded a Cfd on him d1.
And daisy hasn't been towny when here Imo
And Dolby came into the game with a very wolfy POE of me/cape/dunya (I'm almost sure this = 3 townies)

Sure I still think falc /daisy is the most likely team, but your game view is making me very sacred of a you/daisy world

Dolby's read on dunya was due to my misread of her, which shifted back as I was reading that day but not able to post. She made a statement that looked like a blatant lie to me, based on my knowledge of dunya. She knows what it was, I'll bet, which is why she town read me for telling Dolby I thought she was mafia.

Shending_Help wrote: ↑Tue Jul 26, 2022 7:09 pm I'm gonna ISO Marmot later, but unless I find something unexpected I'll be voting Spacedaisy pretty early this phase and hope for the best

The only problem with this is that if the wolfteam isn't exactly daisy/falcon, and falcon stays Afk, then the vote might end 2-2 and wolves win through a tie

Huge mistake to vote me and it should be obvious. Think about it. Marmot tried his hardest to make me look bad surrounding the voting fiasco of Day 1. I should have been an easy lock town, I voted on HK with two minutes left when the votes were in flux and I could have turned it towards Sabi and saved a mafia member. But I didn't. He was trying to pain me bad, he didn't want any lock towns to come of that. The only thing I am guilty of is being too busy and sick irl and thus absent from the game. I am not a wolf.

I know Falcon being missing was somehow suspicious given some kind of activity, as mentioned by Dolby in our chat but I don’t really recall the details. That’s someone I’d consider. Shen I would like to look at more because i feel a bit blank there, but I also don’t know them. So I don’t have a read but I would like to because I think it’s help me.

Seanzie wrote: ↑Sat Jul 23, 2022 11:04 pm

Spacedaisy wrote: ↑Sat Jul 23, 2022 11:00 pm I don’t know why Dolby subbed in for me. I probably missed it in the mechanics. But I was replaced for a day basically and we had chat during that time.

That's weird.

Anyways, you're one of the low content slots that is making this game very difficult to solve. Would you mind walking me through your current worldview? Who are wolves, who are town, and do you have a claim? (I called for a massclaim yesterday, maybe half the people have claimed. The rest are mostly inactive).

Dolby pretty strongly believed Wilgy was town. Dolby was also told my role. I am VT. I don’t know anything about Dolby’s role except that he did share the couple reads I had which was Marmot is town and dunya is mafia. But as I read during the day I was not allowed to post, my mind changed on dunya and she ended up dead.

The thing is, going back to HK’s elimination, I am 99% certain that when I voted I scrolled down and saw that sabi had four votes and I had just cast the fifth vote on HK and thought it was good I just broke a tie, even though I hadn’t planned it. I am really quite sure you and Marmot were rushing around to break a tie that I already broke but you didn’t know it because I voted before I posted my vote in the thread. Considering this, I think the fact one of you tried to break the tie in favor of saving hk (who flipped mafia) by voting sabi (flipped town IIRC) is suspect. I previously thought both of you were town, now I think one of you is bad. I lean towards you but I really have to go back and see who cast that vote right after me that created the second tie, because it wasn’t me. Given the fact you also voted in a way that would have saved dya, and dunya is now dead who was certain you were bad, I have reservations about you. I’ll need to do more research tomorrow when my brain is more clear. Sick brain is fuzzy.

I don’t know why Dolby subbed in for me. I probably missed it in the mechanics. But I was replaced for a day basically and we had chat during that time.

It’s really bizarre to me you could place a late vote on someone that then gets eliminated (my vote was like second to last or something, and I am fairly certain when I placed it that it had put him into the lead, I think Marmot and Seanzie were moving votes and didn’t realize I had voted already to fix the tie they were panicking about. My post where I said “I created a tie?” Was because I was pretty sure I hadn’t and found that confusing) and still everyone is just like “meh” about your alignment. Ok then.

Right now I slight lean town on Marmot, Seanzie, Wisdom, and sabi. I can’t recall why I leaned town on dya before, I’ll have to look back at what they said.

Marmot wrote: ↑Mon Jul 18, 2022 9:02 am hollowkatt ( 7 ) Marmot, Spacedaisy, Wisdom, Cape90, DrWilgy, Seanzie, Sabiplz
sabiplz ( 3 ) Shending_Help, NotAnAxehole, hollowkatt
falcon45ca ( 1 ) dyachei
Wisdom ( 1 ) Alison
Not Voting ( 3 ) dunya, falcon45ca, Jackofhearts2005


Here's the vote count from EOD1 again.

I believe what happened was, in the final minute, Spacedaisy vote for hk to make it a tie between hk and sabi at 5-5. Then sean and I moved our votes from sabi to hk to break the tie.


If sabi is town, I think this is a decent look for Spacedaisy since she sheeped a TR's vote. Ties are scum-sided in this setup, but I SD didn't seem to notice she'd made it a tie, and I'm willing to believe that.

I did not make it a tie. My vote put him at 5 over i think Sabi or someone at 4. Then you all moved your votes, probably because I voted and then I posted my vote since I only had two minutes until the poll ended.

@Wisdom what I meant. By liking you, was that immediately before my vote, you said something that struck me as very townie and since I was very much going on hit reads of people, I liked the look. I was already leaning voting he because sabi didn’t read to my gut as bad, so when I saw you had also voted there, I felt more confident in that choice based on my limited info at that time.

Back to catching up now.

It wasn’t a tie when I voted I don’t believe. Or if it was I didn’t know it.

Seanzie wrote: ↑Sat Jul 16, 2022 7:00 pmoh space daisy

What?

Did I create a tie?

I like Wisdom too, I think I’ll drop my vote on HK.

Marmot wrote: ↑Sat Jul 16, 2022 6:56 pm

Spacedaisy wrote: ↑Sat Jul 16, 2022 6:54 pm I don’t have a read on almost anyone because I haven’t read up and I probably won’t. Sooo, I will say the little bits I have see. From DH and sabi I feel ok about. So I don’t want to vote them.

DharmaHelper isn't playing. (who are you referring to by DH?)


Quick synopsis of current wagons:

sabi has been dismissing meta reads on LC, the mafia draft captain, but has claimed a PR

falcon has posted a couple times, nothing of substance

hk is potentially in wolf meta, and stands accused of pocketing

Fat fingers + autocorrect, I’m playing on mobile. I meant dya

I don’t have a read on almost anyone because I haven’t read up and I probably won’t. Sooo, I will say the little bits I have see. From DH and sabi I feel ok about. So I don’t want to vote them.

dyachei wrote: ↑Sat Jul 16, 2022 6:09 pm

Spacedaisy wrote: ↑Sat Jul 16, 2022 5:57 pm Yo, I’m traveling guys. I’ve been traveling for like a day and I’ve got another like six hours to go. I don’t fully even understand the game, I was just convinced to play by Dunia and company.

Don’t expect much from me until tomorrow.

hi annie!

Hi dya. I approve of the nap trap 100%

Yo, I’m traveling guys. I’ve been traveling for like a day and I’ve got another like six hours to go. I don’t fully even understand the game, I was just convinced to play by Dunia and company.

Don’t expect much from me until tomorrow.