The Syndicate

sprityo wrote: ↑Tue Mar 06, 2018 12:50 am

Kites wrote: ↑Tue Mar 06, 2018 12:48 am @sprityo and anyone suspecting me

gwilly cleared me on night 3

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Mon Feb 19, 2018 11:55 am

gwilikers6 wrote: ↑Mon Feb 19, 2018 11:50 am This was my exact result btw: “**f*** *m ** - s*g”

I was drunk last night and working now so I haven’t put the slightest effort into decoding it. Have at it.

Soften 'em up. It corroborates I think Kites (?) who said they boosted sig's kill chance. I obviously didn't do that, so you were misdirected or something.

soften em up is an archer power so I hadn’t been promoted yet

explain further please?

Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Sat Feb 10, 2018 4:14 pm Scum team now promotes, dangerous bosses that they are. All scum players with roles that have split promotions, pm me which class you want to promote to.

I'm currently out to eat for a family birthday. I will send out background roles, background safeclaims and scum promoted roles this evening and we can start Day 1.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Mon Feb 19, 2018 11:55 am

gwilikers6 wrote: ↑Mon Feb 19, 2018 11:50 am This was my exact result btw: “**f*** *m ** - s*g”

I was drunk last night and working now so I haven’t put the slightest effort into decoding it. Have at it.

Soften 'em up. It corroborates I think Kites (?) who said they boosted sig's kill chance. I obviously didn't do that, so you were misdirected or something.

gwilikers6 wrote: ↑Mon Mar 05, 2018 1:54 pm

Kites wrote: ↑Mon Mar 05, 2018 1:26 pm

gwilikers6 wrote: ↑Mon Mar 05, 2018 7:38 am

Kites wrote: ↑Mon Mar 05, 2018 1:23 am

sprityo wrote: ↑Mon Mar 05, 2018 1:20 am @gwilikers6 what does Bishop do specifically, i have to choose between that and Valkyrie Knight for my promotion, albeit i might just not promote

he tells us and you promote to bishop, you can confirm if it’s true or not

Although I’m not really opposed to this if that’s a route you’d like to take. I just wouldn’t reveal first, naturally.

you don’t have to but it’s fool proof way to confirm you’re a civ. unless you both are scum lol

being secretive about night actions looks bad now tho cos of lap and quin

If that’s what spirit ends up promoting to, I’m down. I just figure my monk role was confirmed enough times that there’s really no need for me to confirm another one, especially when it’s not an info-getting role. I just see no reason to let scum know what I am right now.

gwilikers6 wrote: ↑Mon Mar 05, 2018 7:38 am

Kites wrote: ↑Mon Mar 05, 2018 1:23 am

sprityo wrote: ↑Mon Mar 05, 2018 1:20 am @gwilikers6 what does Bishop do specifically, i have to choose between that and Valkyrie Knight for my promotion, albeit i might just not promote

he tells us and you promote to bishop, you can confirm if it’s true or not

Although I’m not really opposed to this if that’s a route you’d like to take. I just wouldn’t reveal first, naturally.

Dragon D. Luffy wrote: ↑Mon Mar 05, 2018 11:20 am The Bob wagon is unique in the sense that it's really spread out, it's done by players who were not town leaders (except for Mac near the end), and it's not very susceptible to waffling. The people who voted for Bob sticked to it. Voters #1 and #3 and #5 are civ. If Kites is a civ too, this is a dangerous wagon for scum to be bussing on if Bob is bad, but also easy to blend in. If Bob is a civ then it is just easy. Hard to speculate here.

Dragon D. Luffy wrote: ↑Mon Mar 05, 2018 11:20 am Sure, but there is another problem. lapluie had 5 votes at the end of Day 2. Dr. White, the victim of misguided civ fury, had 3. Dr. White was lynched in a way that is still unknown by us all. And his three votes were from: two confirmed civs, and RDW. One possible explanation for the White lynch right in front of you.

sprityo wrote: ↑Mon Mar 05, 2018 1:20 am @gwilikers6 what does Bishop do specifically, i have to choose between that and Valkyrie Knight for my promotion, albeit i might just not promote

Kylemii wrote: ↑Sun Mar 04, 2018 11:02 pmKites, in this post were you referring to your long lost brother thing?

Epignosis wrote: ↑Sat Mar 03, 2018 9:01 pm

Kites wrote: ↑Sat Mar 03, 2018 4:39 pm epi has called rdw his top suspect and been after him since day 1 and now that we are finally about to lynch him, he’s not doing it

i do agree with him that we should just throw votes on rdw and call it a day, we gotta keep hunting. my rdw vote is locked though

What is the purpose of this observation if you agree with me?

lapluie wrote: ↑Thu Feb 22, 2018 12:57 am

Kylemii wrote: ↑Thu Feb 22, 2018 12:34 am @lapluie sorry if i missed it, did you ever tell us about the results of your latest thief check?

What the heck does that even mean, idek anything about this game im jist blindly playing it

gwilikers6 wrote: ↑Fri Mar 02, 2018 6:20 pm It's more beneficial for scum to not know that.

Dragon D. Luffy wrote: ↑Fri Mar 02, 2018 4:20 pm Hey guys lapluie is not badguya anymore whats up with that

Dragon D. Luffy wrote: ↑Thu Mar 01, 2018 2:33 pm My scum team:

Quin
RDW
Epi
Bob
Someone who has been blending like a boss. My gut says either Gwilker or Sig. Let's say Gwilkers for my attempt of calling the whole team.

Kites wrote: ↑Tue Feb 20, 2018 5:14 pm

Kites wrote: ↑Sat Feb 17, 2018 6:32 pm most likely either
a) mafia saved cbob’s ass cos he is scum
b) someone, civ maybe, wanted drwhite dead instead

anyways someone might have a power like lynch redirector? it would probably require voting for the target so colin, dunya/speedchuck or rdw maybe for voting drwhite

this is just speculation btw

I can’t stop thinking about this
since no one has come forward and claimed responsibility or given any explanation for drwhite’s death I’m gonna assume it was mafia’s doing. I believe it wasn’t a passive power, but an active, like epignosis’ lynch stop. And a power like that couldn’t be just aimed at any player of your choice or it would be too op, so you’d have to vote your target
so of those 3, colin is civ and dead, dunya/speedchuck seems good also
[VOTE: rundontwalk] aubergine
I still want Bob dead but I don’t see that happening today

Dragon D. Luffy wrote: ↑Thu Mar 01, 2018 1:08 pm

Spoiler: show

DDL presents

G-Man's Technicolor Vote Analysis

DAY 1

First, let's list all the votes that were cast in Day 1. Credits to my Enter key for enduring the abuse that was necessary to search for the word "vote" hundreds of times, since aubergines didn't exist yet.

Spoiler: show

DDL - Kylemii
Jay - Mac
Marmot - Epignosis
Marmot - Wilgy
Nutella - Mac
Mac - Bob
Jay - Sprityo
Mac - Bob
DDL - Mac
Jay - lapluie
Dunya - Epi
LC - TSP
Bob - rabbit8
Nutella - TSP
DDL - Sprityo
Dunya - Quin
TSP - Kylemii
Kites - Epi
LC - Marmot
Marmot - Epi
RDW - Marmot
Jay - Dr. White
Marmot - Epi
Epi - Colin
mac - Quin
RDW - Nutella
Gwilkers - Nutella
Bob - Colin
mac - Nutella
ID - DDL
Sig - Rabbit8
Dunya - Nutella
Bob - Rabbit8
Colin - Nutella
Kenway - TSP
ID - Epi
Bob - lapluie
DDL - Kenway
Bob - Rabbit8
RDW - Epi
DDL - Rabbit8
DDL - Kenway
Wilgy - Dunya
Nutella - Quin
DDL - Quin
Jay - Quin
Bob - Quin
RDW - Nutella
Marmot - Quin
Kylemii - Quin
LC - Quin
Jay - Nutella

Now let's give a treatment to this data. I will list every single one of those votes in order, but instead of naming vote the voter and the votee, I will just name the former, and use a color to represent the later.

DDL
Jay
Marmot
Marmot
Nutella
Mac
Jay
Mac
DDL
Jay
Dunya
LC
Bob
Nutella
DDL
Dunya
TSP
Kites
LC
Marmot
RDW
Jay
Marmot
Epi
mac
RDW
Gwilkers
Bob
mac
ID
Sig
Dunya
Bob
Colin
Kenway
ID
Bob
DDL
Bob
RDW
DDL
DDL
Wilgy
Nutella
DDL
Jay
Bob
RDW
Marmot
Kylemii
LC
Jay

Key:

Quin - Red
Nutella - Green
Epignosis - Purple
Rabbit8 - Orange
TSP - Dark Blue
MacDougall - Light Blue
Others - White

Now, the point here is to see the bandwagons forming and growing. From this list, we see that for most of Day 1, the thread did not know what to do. We can see there was an initial attempt to bandwagon Mac, which people eventually gave up on. There were some tentative votes on Quin that got abandoned. Then we have the slow growth of the Epi vote, as people got annoyed by the "Exercise". That wagon was accompained, but never surpassed, by the Rabbit8 one.

Later on, the Nutella wagon begins, and it grows fast. Suddenly it beats every wagon and it's leading with 5 votes, from RDW, Gwilkers, Mac, dunya and Colin, 2 of which we know were civs.

The day seems like it will be a battle between Nutella and Epi, with rabbit8 running behind.

Suddenly, something happens. Nutella decides to act on her previously stated suspicions about Quin.

The bandwagon is formed, and it grows with a storm. I jump, then Jay, then Bob. Then Marmot, then Kyle and then LC. This was a legit CFD (damn you Jay), and it only didn't suceed because Epi stopped the lynch.

There are two points of interest that call most of my attention, though you people are free to dissect other things:

First, Nutella looks great. Granted, she was saving herself, but a CFD on a teammate that had no votes atm (previous votes on Quin were changed) doesn't strike me as a good plan.

Second, RDW is sticking out like a sore thumb. No, look at that. He votes for Nutella. Heck, he starts the Nutella wagon. Then after the wagon has grown, he abandons it and votes for Epi. He seems fine with lynching Epi until the Quin wagons grows. Then in the last minute, he changes his vote to Nutella again, and almost gets her lynched in place of Quin.

My understanding? RDW is bad, Nutella is a civ. The baddies were going with a Nutella lynch on day 1. When their teammate was threatened, RDW went with the save.

Epi doesn't look great here either. Not only he was the hand that ultimately saved Quin, but a seriously case for RDW bussing Epi can be made here. RDW, after creating the weapon that would destroy Nutella, washes his hands and votes for a teammate. Perfect day.

I urge all of you to look at RDW's posts. He looks the worst from Day 1 interactions with Quin. Also see if you can find any other things to conclude from this exercise other than this.

colonialbob wrote: ↑Thu Mar 01, 2018 12:38 pm Feel like D4 should be our starting point, no?

[9] DrWilgy - sig, Kites, Iron_Dwarf, Marmot, gwilikers6, Dragon D. Luffy, Quin, rundontwalk, Speedchuck

Speedunya is still likely town, and for now let's eliminate DDL and Marmot as his townclears. That gives us:

sig, Kites, I_D, gwil, and RDW

(I don't think all 5 mafia were on Wilgy, in fact I'd guess at least one was on Quin, but let's PoE the safer option first before we worry about that.)

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Tue Feb 20, 2018 10:49 pm~ My top suspect is DrWilgy. Beyond the fake dunya crap, I also think he's by nature a high-chance don selection. Everybody loves Wilgy and would be pleased to have his unpredictable nonsense on their team with them.

Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Thu Mar 01, 2018 11:19 am [7] Quin - Marmot, Nutella, Dragon D. Luffy, Sig, speedchuck, gwilikers6, Kylemii
[4] Iron_Dwarf - rundontwalk, sprityo, quin, Epignosis
[1] Nutella - lapluie
[1] Marmot - Iron_Dwarf
[1] Kenway - colonialbob

No vote: Kenway, Kites

Dragon D. Luffy wrote: ↑Tue Feb 27, 2018 1:16 pm

Kites wrote: ↑Tue Feb 27, 2018 1:11 pm nah ive been red/orange on like almost every rainbow list

That is like mafia's wet dream. To be everyone's suspect and still not get votes.

dunya wrote: ↑Sun Feb 11, 2018 4:31 pmKites is a great mafia player, very suspicious by nature when he's civ.

Dragon D. Luffy wrote: ↑Tue Feb 27, 2018 11:48 amAlso Kites has been avoiding the thread's suspicion like a boss. I bet he is bad.

Kylemii wrote: ↑Sun Feb 25, 2018 3:30 am

Kites wrote: ↑Sun Feb 25, 2018 2:56 am oh no im so sorry brother
idk if I’m more scared of mafia or vigs now

why is that?

Dragon D. Luffy wrote: ↑Fri Feb 23, 2018 10:24 pm Epignosis
Quin
Wilgy
Kites
Colonialbob

How is that for a scum team.

speedchuck wrote: ↑Thu Feb 22, 2018 5:50 pm

Kites wrote: ↑Thu Feb 22, 2018 5:48 pm

speedchuck wrote: ↑Thu Feb 22, 2018 5:45 pm What does 'chosen by civ' mean?

Drafting. *role chosen by civ

So it has no bearing on alignment, then?

Sorry I wasn't here for drafting. People picked roles for others then. Okay.

speedchuck wrote: ↑Thu Feb 22, 2018 5:45 pm What does 'chosen by civ' mean?

Dragon D. Luffy wrote: ↑Thu Feb 22, 2018 5:40 pm

Kites wrote: ↑Thu Feb 22, 2018 5:38 pm dunya should be yellow uh

Do you know something we don't?

speedchuck wrote: ↑Thu Feb 22, 2018 4:44 pm

nutella wrote: ↑Thu Feb 22, 2018 4:39 pm well the post really reads like you protected mac so probably redirected?

Doesn't read like that to me.

Reads like 3 people arguing over who deflected the kill.

I'm guessing the normal mafia kill didn't go through tonight, and that these are bonus kills. Probably a townie killed Kites. IDK which side killed Mac. Maybe an extra scumkill?

linki: agreed. I wouldn't put too much stock in flavortext.

Dragon D. Luffy wrote: ↑Thu Feb 22, 2018 3:16 pm Tried to misdirect Kites and it failed.

[VOTE: Dr. Wilgy] aubergine

Kylemii wrote: ↑Wed Feb 21, 2018 6:32 pm

Kites wrote: ↑Wed Feb 21, 2018 6:22 pm

Kylemii wrote: ↑Tue Feb 20, 2018 3:44 am

Kites wrote: ↑Tue Feb 20, 2018 3:36 amoh wow just noticed this, maybe he is then
but that means i had nothing to with the possible misdirection of sig

how is your power worded? because redirecting harmful actions towards your long lost brother doesn't make a lot of sense thematically. is it possible you have it backwards?

Okay so Jack just corrected me :o If anyone tries to harm my brother, and my action could somehow prevent it, I will be misdirected to him.

So if Wilgy is my brother, I stopped sig and that means someone else killed Colin. However according to the rules you will be notified if your action fails but sig didn’t say so. So either Wilgy is not my brother and sig was misdirected or sig is lying about the kill.

misdirected to "him" misdirected to whom? :^?

Kylemii wrote: ↑Tue Feb 20, 2018 3:44 am

Kites wrote: ↑Tue Feb 20, 2018 3:36 amoh wow just noticed this, maybe he is then
but that means i had nothing to with the possible misdirection of sig

how is your power worded? because redirecting harmful actions towards your long lost brother doesn't make a lot of sense thematically. is it possible you have it backwards?

Kylemii wrote: ↑Tue Feb 20, 2018 3:44 am

Kites wrote: ↑Tue Feb 20, 2018 3:36 amoh wow just noticed this, maybe he is then
but that means i had nothing to with the possible misdirection of sig

how is your power worded? because redirecting harmful actions towards your long lost brother doesn't make a lot of sense thematically. is it possible you have it backwards?

Kites wrote: ↑Sat Feb 17, 2018 6:32 pm most likely either
a) mafia saved cbob’s ass cos he is scum
b) someone, civ maybe, wanted drwhite dead instead

anyways someone might have a power like lynch redirector? it would probably require voting for the target so colin, dunya/speedchuck or rdw maybe for voting drwhite

this is just speculation btw

Kylemii wrote: ↑Tue Feb 20, 2018 2:41 am

Epignosis wrote: ↑Tue Feb 20, 2018 12:37 am Okay. I scrapped my original idea.

Instead:

Kylemii wrote: ↑Mon Feb 19, 2018 1:48 pm

Kites wrote: ↑Mon Feb 19, 2018 7:38 amtargeted sig last night, giving him a +15% chance to kill the target, so he had a 90% chance to succeed. Anyways there’s a passive effect on my powers that will cause the person I targeted to be misdirected. But the only way that could have happened is if Colin was my long lost brother and Wilgy targeted him with a harmful action, but the chances it really happened are small.

if everything you're saying is true, and it would be weird if it wasn't since you alluded to this way back on day 0, wilgy probably really is your brother. I'm like 95% sure actually.

Who is the long-lost brother people?

This probably isn't exactly what you're asking but... Kites' comment about a long long lost brother prompted me to google "archer, long lost brother" and it brought me to the wiki page for Rebecca, an archer from Blazing Blade. She leaves home to search for her long lost brother, the only pirate is Dart, a dude who suffered amnesia and joined up with some pirates because thats how life is sometimes. Dart is highly hinted at being Rebecca's lost brother.

So far every role has been from "sacred stones" or "the blazing blade", and kite's made a cryptic post about a lost brother much earlier in the game... Idk. It makes sense.

Whether or not this confirms Kite's as civ I guess depends on how much fire emblem knowledge he has, because this would take an impressive amount of forethought to setup if fake, and the fact that sig was apparently redirected from targeting Wilgy despite none of the known redirectors being responsible for it seems to confirm Kite's thing.

Epignosis wrote: ↑Tue Feb 20, 2018 12:37 am Okay. I scrapped my original idea.

Instead:

Kylemii wrote: ↑Mon Feb 19, 2018 1:48 pm

Kites wrote: ↑Mon Feb 19, 2018 7:38 amtargeted sig last night, giving him a +15% chance to kill the target, so he had a 90% chance to succeed. Anyways there’s a passive effect on my powers that will cause the person I targeted to be misdirected. But the only way that could have happened is if Colin was my long lost brother and Wilgy targeted him with a harmful action, but the chances it really happened are small.

if everything you're saying is true, and it would be weird if it wasn't since you alluded to this way back on day 0, wilgy probably really is your brother. I'm like 95% sure actually.

Who is the long-lost brother people?

Quin wrote: ↑Mon Feb 19, 2018 10:15 pm

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Mon Feb 19, 2018 11:55 am

gwilikers6 wrote: ↑Mon Feb 19, 2018 11:50 am This was my exact result btw: “**f*** *m ** - s*g”

I was drunk last night and working now so I haven’t put the slightest effort into decoding it. Have at it.

Soften 'em up. It corroborates I think Kites (?) who said they boosted sig's kill chance. I obviously didn't do that, so you were misdirected or something.

yeah but why is kites giving his scum reads an extra chance to kill?

Kites wrote: ↑Wed Feb 14, 2018 8:35 am feels at the moment:
I’m comfortable around:
ColinIsCool
Dr. White
dunya
JJJ
Long Con
MacDougall
Marmot
Neutral:
DDL
gwilikers6
Kylemii
rdw
sprityo
Hmmmm... :
Iron_Dwarf
Kenway
nutella
rabbit8: the longer he’s gone the more I think he’s just not interested in this game
sig
TonyStarkPrime
Confused:
Epignosis - pls start giving reads on people, I’ll leave you alone for now tho
lapluie - post more
Quin - you gotta do more to redeem yourself
Bad feeling:
colonialbob - changed his votes frequently, almost exclusively between inactive people to invite them to talk - afraid to be responsible for false lynch?
DrWilgy - no useful content, weird dunya vote and no explanation

I hope I did the colors right

@Kites do you no longer suspect sig? why?

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Mon Feb 19, 2018 12:36 pm

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Sun Feb 18, 2018 11:58 pm Y'all tell me who you want me to kill next night phase, and then tell me if you think it's worth using that kill if it roleblocks and level-blocks every other civilian.

Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Wed Feb 07, 2018 11:28 am A Tragic Loyalist - If you are lynched, all townies will be roleblocked the following night.
*secrets*

Long Con wrote: ↑Mon Feb 19, 2018 12:05 pm

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Mon Feb 19, 2018 12:02 pm It's an archer role ability.

I don't see anything about softness in that role ability.

Also, this damns sig's lie even more since "Fliers can't target your target." Sig couldn't even have been misdirected by a flier.