The Syndicate

Dragon D. Luffy wrote: ↑Sun Feb 13, 2022 2:39 pm I guess there is a lesson to be learned about finding an "optimal" mathematical solution that disregards the social aspect of the game and ignores that the game is designed with much higher winning odds for the mafia faction, which town can only overcome through social cohesion.

hollowkatt wrote: ↑Sun Feb 13, 2022 1:22 pm

Creature wrote: ↑Sun Feb 13, 2022 1:19 pm

hollowkatt wrote: ↑Sun Feb 13, 2022 1:10 pm I'm voting creature btw

Understandable. Go for the currently most accessible mislynch.

I can't tell if that's sarcasm or what, but yeah, I think you're not a giant panda

hollowkatt wrote: ↑Sun Feb 13, 2022 1:10 pm I'm voting creature btw

Dragon D. Luffy wrote: ↑Sun Feb 13, 2022 12:31 pm

Guillotine wrote: ↑Sun Feb 13, 2022 11:56 am I had a good all analysis on Dizzy and lost it because the site had logged me out against my will and when i tried to log in using my credentials it failed the first time so i lost it all. I did it on my phone which was difficult to do.

Im pissed! I need to cool off before i do it again. Fuck this site

I first made a complaint about that in maybe 2017-2018. I have long since lost hope that bug will ever be fixed.

Spacedaisy wrote: ↑Sat Feb 12, 2022 11:39 pm I fully suspect that when they took out those two posters, the wolves are stepping in to fill the void. When the night ended I sat back to watch and see who did that. Unsurprisingly Creature and DDL. Two people are already felt suspicious of.

Every time I say to myself that the most logical wolf behavior would be XYZ, Creature is doing exactly that.

Guillotine wrote: ↑Sun Feb 13, 2022 2:46 am [VOTE: Creature] aubergine

I dont like how you shade me and townread me at the same time, fuck that.

falcon45ca wrote: ↑Sat Feb 12, 2022 9:30 pm

Creature wrote: ↑Sat Feb 12, 2022 7:48 pm Okay. Maybe I need a second opinion on DrWilgy.

I thought he was his usual town self and wouldn't be wolfreading me as wolf, but I'm sorta afraid his posts are noticeably smaller than the Lost in Space Hustle game I played with him.

I have no idea how to read Wilgy, and I don't think I'm alone. Are his posts smaller this game in a sense of their individual content is slimmer, or just lower post volume?

How would you rate the quality of his posting vs Lost in Space?

Dragon D. Luffy wrote: ↑Sat Feb 12, 2022 7:57 pm Creature last time I played with you, you were grossly scummy, like actually refused to do anything and was almost begging for a policy yeet. You were town. The fact you are doing things now is making my tinfoil senses spin like crazy.

Creature wrote: ↑Thu Feb 10, 2022 10:32 pm Perhaps this might just be an easy game.

I'm okay with sig and Spacedaisy shots.

Creature wrote: ↑Thu Feb 10, 2022 10:33 pm

NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Thu Feb 10, 2022 9:54 pm I don't know how valuable night kill analysis is going to be - other than it's not a mechanically minded mafia team.

sig and Spacedaisy makes sense then

DrWilgy wrote: ↑Fri Feb 11, 2022 12:50 am

NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Thu Feb 10, 2022 9:12 pm I would kill creature, Sig, or Falcon today probably.

Agreed.

Sig. Creature.

Trash Pandas.

Dragon D. Luffy wrote: ↑Fri Feb 11, 2022 7:19 am

NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Thu Feb 10, 2022 9:12 pm I would kill creature, Sig, or Falcon today probably.

I wouldn't kill Sig out of those.

Creature is feeling ok this phase too.

Creature wrote: ↑Fri Feb 11, 2022 2:38 pm

Marmot wrote: ↑Fri Feb 11, 2022 2:06 pm

Creature wrote: ↑Thu Feb 10, 2022 10:32 pm Perhaps this might just be an easy game.

I'm okay with sig and Spacedaisy shots.

What about DDL?

Also, sig was the first person to dive into Michelle spew, why is he on this list?

DDL I kinda trust Dyslexicon's townread on him and also the fingersplints kill looks way straight to the face if it was done because she was wolfreading DDL.

I think sig's spew dive left me unimpressed tbh.

Creature wrote: ↑Fri Feb 11, 2022 2:44 pm

Marmot wrote: ↑Fri Feb 11, 2022 2:43 pm I don't think that sig is necessarily town, but he has made more attempts at finding scum today than a few other players, namely Urist and DrWilgy

Spacedaisy falls in the same boat.


I agree that sig's attempts are not impressive, though I will acknowledge he has little to work with. On the whole, this game is very low-volume right now, and generating content seems to be difficult for a lot of people in this game.

I'd be ok shooting sig, I also think there are marginally better options today.

Okay. I think I'll give sig the medal of participation.

Creature wrote: ↑Fri Feb 11, 2022 3:06 pm

NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Fri Feb 11, 2022 3:00 pm If some/most of you guys could give four person POEs, that would be super helpful for me to organize how everyone is viewing the game. Or your confident lock town reads, either is helpful. Tyty.

DrWilgy
Dyslexicon
falcon45ca
hollowkatt
sig
Spacedaisy
Urist

Would probably rank DrWilgy > hollowkatt > falcon45ca/Spacedaisy > Urist > sig. I don't know where to place Dyslexicon tbh.

I don't have any confident lock town read, only gut reads.

Creature wrote: ↑Fri Feb 11, 2022 3:12 pm Why sig's reads are almost polar opposite to mine?

Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Fri Feb 11, 2022 3:13 pm Don’t know about my full PoE, but atp it will include Sig and HK.

My reads change as far as I have any.

Probably better if Nook makes his decision.

I might come back stronger if I live

Creature wrote: ↑Fri Feb 11, 2022 3:21 pm What the f? sig townreads DDL and Marmot yet wants to shoot them?

Creature wrote: ↑Fri Feb 11, 2022 3:22 pm Bit worried now about sig because they seem to have easily got these reads while I struggle getting any confident read.

Creature wrote: ↑Fri Feb 11, 2022 3:23 pm

Marmot wrote: ↑Fri Feb 11, 2022 3:22 pm

Creature wrote: ↑Fri Feb 11, 2022 3:21 pm What the f? sig townreads DDL and Marmot yet wants to shoot them?

I know he probably shoved us into a 4-person POE that Nanook requested (although sig actually gave 5), but I don't get why we ended up in there before hk.

I probably wouldn't shoot someone I listed as town unless I changed my mind about them.

Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Fri Feb 11, 2022 3:24 pm

Creature wrote: ↑Fri Feb 11, 2022 3:22 pm Bit worried now about sig because they seem to have easily got these reads while I struggle getting any confident read.

This a good point tbh

Though I might not get good reads because I’m not trying

Dragon D. Luffy wrote: ↑Fri Feb 11, 2022 3:28 pm I caught up most posts since my last one but this game is making me angry. I'm making a lot of effort not to flame Urist and NAA for the fact they apparently signed up just to troll people.

I need time away from this game.

I guess if you guys need some reads, Sig looks like classic tinfoil Sig. Do not shoot there. Urist/NAA could be mafia and I don't care. Hollowkat probably mafia. Guillo def town. I like Creature and Marmot now. No opinions on the rest. Me not having opinions on someone is a worse sign than otherwise, but not strongly.

falcon45ca wrote: ↑Fri Feb 11, 2022 3:59 pm My POE is Sig, SpaceDaisy, Wilgy & Marmot




These aren't just gut reads, but also involve the large & small intestine

Creature wrote: ↑Fri Feb 11, 2022 4:13 pm DrWilgy and sig may just be null reads because it feels like I was just wolfreading them for their playstyle.

hollowkatt might be one wolf. Not sure who else. Perhaps Urist.

hollowkatt wrote: ↑Fri Feb 11, 2022 6:17 pm I don't have a POE but I do have a do not shoot list:
dizzy
DDL
NAA
Falcon
Marmot

These people make me feel good about the solving they're trying to do and how they're going about it.

Guillo I think is probably town tbh but his push on me is ego driven more than it is anything else, that's bad guillo stop doing it.

Creature sheeped it, that was wonky, I'd shoot him.
Sig, Wigly, Urist, Spacedaisy I guess would be my POE by virtue of not town reading them.

Spacedaisy wrote: ↑Fri Feb 11, 2022 7:19 pm Ok, I just did a complete read through again to get my feet under me.

I feel confident that the following are town
NAA
Guillo
Dizzy

I feel somewhat confident in these as town
Urist
Marmot

I have no read on wilgy

I believe the wolves are among these:
Creature
HK
Falcon
DDL
Sig

I’d probably include Wilgy in a PoE simply out of principle. No real read so I can’t eliminate him from a PoE.

Sorry I can’t get it down to just four yet Nook, but that is where I’m at right now.

Spacedaisy wrote: ↑Fri Feb 11, 2022 7:30 pm

Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Fri Feb 11, 2022 7:21 pm

Spacedaisy wrote: ↑Fri Feb 11, 2022 7:19 pm Ok, I just did a complete read through again to get my feet under me.

I feel confident that the following are town
NAA
Guillo
Dizzy

I feel somewhat confident in these as town
Urist
Marmot

I have no read on wilgy

I believe the wolves are among these:
Creature
HK
Falcon
DDL
Sig

I’d probably include Wilgy in a PoE simply out of principle. No real read so I can’t eliminate him from a PoE.

Sorry I can’t get it down to just four yet Nook, but that is where I’m at right now.

I'm curious as to what your read on me and DDL especially entails?

Your post about Michelle before she flipped serves no purpose as a wolf. If you were wolf, you knew she would flip wolf. It would have served you better to not say it if you were wolf. You are definitely town.

The only person who commented on it was sig, I thought at first it made me read him town too, but I think that could easily be manipulated by a wolf too so he remains where he is.

I feel pretty sure that Creature is mafia, and Creature listed you and DDL together in the list of people they weren't sure of. When I saw it I thought, if Creature is bad they are probably one wolf one town. I feel confident you are town so I looked at DDL. His tone has seemed genuine in frustration, but I don't think it means anything because he is annoyed with a player for things connected to a previous game. I think that it might be interpersonal conflict and have no desire to focus on it at all. He did however suggest we use 5 or 6 protects on Nook each night during the mech discussion. I think we would fly through our protections at that rate and it would be an easy move as a wolf to suggest something that looks towny in motivation but really is a bad move for us. So I had him as bad at that point. Then when I came back after finishing reading through the thread, I found his read of me where he questioned my timing. I mean come one, there were like three or so people in a row who listed me as a possible shot target for Nook that they would be ok with in a row. That was why I questioned why I was in people's lists all of a sudden. There is nothing questionable about my timing at all.

Could I be wrong about DDL, maybe. I just didn't feel good about his suggestion of five or six protects being used every night. I'm no math person and even I thought that would be excessive.

Guillotine wrote: ↑Wed Feb 09, 2022 4:00 pm

hollowkatt wrote: ↑Wed Feb 09, 2022 2:33 pm

Creature wrote: ↑Wed Feb 09, 2022 12:59 pm I'm probably looking at Dragon + Dyslexicon + one of the mech talkers (NAA/HK/Guillo/maybe Urist).

I don't remember why I felt good about dizzy but I did. People seem to want to pile on dragon and meh I'm not sure I care about dragon.

Why don't you care about Dragon?

How about Michelle? She only has four posts, that means she is scum.

[VOTE: Michelle] aubergine

hollowkatt wrote: ↑Wed Feb 09, 2022 4:10 pm

Guillotine wrote: ↑Wed Feb 09, 2022 4:00 pm

hollowkatt wrote: ↑Wed Feb 09, 2022 2:33 pm

Creature wrote: ↑Wed Feb 09, 2022 12:59 pm I'm probably looking at Dragon + Dyslexicon + one of the mech talkers (NAA/HK/Guillo/maybe Urist).

I don't remember why I felt good about dizzy but I did. People seem to want to pile on dragon and meh I'm not sure I care about dragon.

Why don't you care about Dragon?

How about Michelle? She only has four posts, that means she is scum.

[VOTE: Michelle] aubergine

I meant that as I don't care if dragon dies, I don't have a town read there.

Michelle I think is probs fine? Like yes, only 4 posts, but none of them are bad, they exist.
Her saying she's not great with mech/math is accurate for her and following the plan is something everyone says they're going to do b/c you have to in games like this so really you've got to read her on tone and intent.

I like both of these posts:

Michelle wrote: ↑Wed Feb 09, 2022 10:12 am

sig wrote: ↑Wed Feb 09, 2022 10:02 am Also I totally should’ve read the rules before starting since lol wtf is this.

But also oof so glad I’m not the red panda we’d be dead by like day 3 somehow

Also also, is it accurate to say if we don’t use our actions it’s randed? If so wouldn’t it make the most sense for only like 3 ppl to target nanook and nobody else does anything so it’s totally random

From what I read we don't have to use our action each night, correct me if I am wrong, but I understand we can holster and keep our shots

Michelle wrote: ↑Wed Feb 09, 2022 10:10 am

Creature wrote: ↑Wed Feb 09, 2022 9:36 am

Urist wrote: ↑Wed Feb 09, 2022 9:31 am Rethinking this. It might not be worth trying to save anyone other than Nanook. In terms of actual value gained by saving other people, we would need 3 successful saves in order to increase our number of miselims from two to three.

Given this, I'm tempted to say we should just do the d3 method because it's prob the only one everyone will be able to understand.

I hope NANOOK is a good wolf hunter then.

11 v 4 --> Mislynch --> 10 v 4 --> Odd-night nightkill --> 9 v 4 --> Mislynch --> 8 v 4 --> Even-night nightkills --> 6 v 4 --> Mislynch --> 5 v 4 --> Odd-night nightkill --> 4 v 4

I think it's gonna be extremely hard for town to win if all nightkills succeed.

Nanook is a good wolf hunter

This is the worst case scenario and I doubt it will be like this, so we should do this every day depending on the flips to check the gamestate.

I think defending Nanook and scumhunting in the classic way should bring us the win

like ok, I play and host a LOT of secret hitler, which is very similar to this type of setup. You've got a team with knowledge and you've got a team with numbers.

The team with numbers wins by keeping the team with knowledge out of the pool of government. We've already accomplished that with having a Red Panda to lead us. We aren't making decisions at the end of the day other than where and when to protect. It's not on us specifically to "remove" another player from the game.

In SH you also don't get to remove, you have to use social/thread pressure to freeze the badguys out of the game.

Where it differs is that we aren't voting on governments here so there's no real track record of who's onboard with things or not, but what we do have is semi-traditional wolf hunting. We've started that already with potential wagons on DDL, Michelle, and NAA.

Now that there's some votes cast we can talk about those votes, see who's onboard and who's not, and why, and go from there. eventually this will give us a pool not only to remove from, but also to not worry about protecting, which allows us to focus our protections better on those who are going to need it.

My point here is this: It's smart for both teams to at least appear to be in step with The Plan so we can't scum hunt by looking at people who are opposed to the plan. What we have to do is look at tonally how they're supporting the plan, who appears to be approaching things straight vs with agenda, and that kind of thing.

Like most games today is a crap shoot but tomorrow we'll have knowledge on who defended the removed player should they be a raccoon, or who was pushing them should they be a giant panda.

tl;dr I think michelle is fine for now even at low posting.

Guillotine wrote: ↑Wed Feb 09, 2022 4:25 pm

hollowkatt wrote: ↑Wed Feb 09, 2022 4:10 pm We aren't making decisions at the end of the day other than where and when to protect. It's not on us specifically to "remove" another player from the game.

I keep forgetting that my vote is worth a damn in this game and that the only thing that wolves have to do in this game is to pocket Nanook and doc dodge every night.

But I think Michelle is in her wolf meta, how long has it been since the game started? 20 hours? with only 4 posts? Michelle has a post volume wolf tell, I remember I had to bus her for it in Spider-verse because others knew about it and knew I knew about it and I would look suspicious if I didn't bring it up. It's how Mac and I keep catching her at Mafia Universe. I think Nanook knows about this too but knowing him, he will probably let her live just because I'm sussing her but mark my words, I host a lot for her and her town meta vs her wolf meta difference is that STARK!

Guillotine wrote: ↑Wed Feb 09, 2022 4:45 pm This game is so dead.. I will be back later. Don't mind me if I leave my vote park on Michelle, is not like it is a threat if she is scum anyways.

NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Wed Feb 09, 2022 6:14 pm I might even throw Michelle into that list just so that Dunya can praise me in post if that's the exact 4.

Creature wrote: ↑Wed Feb 09, 2022 7:44 pm

Michelle wrote: ↑Wed Feb 09, 2022 10:01 am I am not a mechanical player and if this game turns out to be a game of maths and probabilities then I will follow the plan approved by Nanook

Michelle wrote: ↑Wed Feb 09, 2022 10:10 am

Creature wrote: ↑Wed Feb 09, 2022 9:36 am

Urist wrote: ↑Wed Feb 09, 2022 9:31 am Rethinking this. It might not be worth trying to save anyone other than Nanook. In terms of actual value gained by saving other people, we would need 3 successful saves in order to increase our number of miselims from two to three.

Given this, I'm tempted to say we should just do the d3 method because it's prob the only one everyone will be able to understand.

I hope NANOOK is a good wolf hunter then.

11 v 4 --> Mislynch --> 10 v 4 --> Odd-night nightkill --> 9 v 4 --> Mislynch --> 8 v 4 --> Even-night nightkills --> 6 v 4 --> Mislynch --> 5 v 4 --> Odd-night nightkill --> 4 v 4

I think it's gonna be extremely hard for town to win if all nightkills succeed.

Nanook is a good wolf hunter

This is the worst case scenario and I doubt it will be like this, so we should do this every day depending on the flips to check the gamestate.

I think defending Nanook and scumhunting in the classic way should bring us the win

I townread these two posts for some reason.

Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Wed Feb 09, 2022 8:00 pm Ok, I can actually vibe with Michelle + Marmot as pretty ok though.

Dragon D. Luffy wrote: ↑Wed Feb 09, 2022 8:07 pm Gullo is town.

I keep agreeing with everything he says.

Michelle's entry was yucky and Dizzy feels weird, yeah.

[VOTE: Michelle] aubergine

Dragon D. Luffy wrote: ↑Sat Feb 12, 2022 7:30 pm GTH scum team is hollowkat, daisy and dizzy. Maybe wilgy in place of one of them.

Undecided on Urist, I'm now entertaining the idea that mafia would at least make a more balanced act than whatever hes doing.

Creature wrote: ↑Sat Feb 12, 2022 7:08 pm Creature
Dragon D. Luffy
DrWilgy
Dyslexicon
falcon45ca
Guillotine
hollowkatt
Spacedaisy
Urist

6 giant pandas vs 3 trash pandas here

Urist wrote: ↑Fri Feb 11, 2022 5:18 pm I'm not trying to make you angry. I'm sorry that happened. I just have a minimalist approach to mafia.

The only things town should be doing right now are a) looking town, and b) advising Nanook on who to shoot. And I guess since I'm doing it right now: c) resolve conflict. Anything outside those bounds is just going to be a distraction for Nanook.

DrWilgy wrote: ↑Sat Feb 12, 2022 7:08 pm Nanook. Didn't kill Creature. Sad.

NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Fri Feb 11, 2022 7:05 pm

NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Fri Feb 11, 2022 11:26 am Everyone knows their rolls for tonight?

60 if we kill trash panda
55 if we kill giant panda

Bumping for visibility

Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Fri Feb 11, 2022 6:04 pm This setup seems so weird now. I feel like last time, it was super easy to get reads and discussions going. Maybe because Nut had the gun and jumped on everyone and everywhere.

Now I'm just like waiting for whatever Nook is going to do and in a general meh mood.

If we need it later, maybe infuse this with a whoever gets the most votes gets shot or something, to make something more happen. Or at least pretend. Dunno

Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Fri Feb 11, 2022 6:04 pm This setup seems so weird now. I feel like last time, it was super easy to get reads and discussions going. Maybe because Nut had the gun and jumped on everyone and everywhere.

Now I'm just like waiting for whatever Nook is going to do and in a general meh mood.

If we need it later, maybe infuse this with a whoever gets the most votes gets shot or something, to make something more happen. Or at least pretend. Dunno

Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Fri Feb 11, 2022 6:00 pm

Creature wrote: ↑Fri Feb 11, 2022 5:59 pm Would it be a bad idea to ask who wolves are more likely to nightkill tonight if not NANOOK?

It would probably be pointless speculation. Depends entirely on who the wolves are anyway.

Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Fri Feb 11, 2022 5:59 pm We should all follow the night plan. Just do it.

Also, quick, remind me what dice number it is again depending on the flip. Would appreciate it greatly.

hollowkatt wrote: ↑Fri Feb 11, 2022 10:47 am When I die please shoot Guillo because this push is fabricated bullshit on a very flimsy reason. DDLs reason isn't any better

falcon45ca wrote: ↑Fri Feb 11, 2022 3:59 pm My POE is Sig, SpaceDaisy, Wilgy & Marmot




These aren't just gut reads, but also involve the large & small intestine

Creature wrote: ↑Fri Feb 11, 2022 3:06 pm

NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Fri Feb 11, 2022 3:00 pm If some/most of you guys could give four person POEs, that would be super helpful for me to organize how everyone is viewing the game. Or your confident lock town reads, either is helpful. Tyty.

DrWilgy
Dyslexicon
falcon45ca
hollowkatt
sig
Spacedaisy
Urist

Would probably rank DrWilgy > hollowkatt > falcon45ca/Spacedaisy > Urist > sig. I don't know where to place Dyslexicon tbh.

I don't have any confident lock town read, only gut reads.

Marmot wrote: ↑Fri Feb 11, 2022 3:22 pm

Creature wrote: ↑Fri Feb 11, 2022 3:21 pm What the f? sig townreads DDL and Marmot yet wants to shoot them?

I know he probably shoved us into a 4-person POE that Nanook requested (although sig actually gave 5), but I don't get why we ended up in there before hk.

Urist wrote: ↑Fri Feb 11, 2022 3:06 pm

Marmot wrote: ↑Fri Feb 11, 2022 3:04 pm

Urist wrote: ↑Fri Feb 11, 2022 3:02 pm

NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Fri Feb 11, 2022 3:00 pm If some/most of you guys could give four person POEs, that would be super helpful for me to organize how everyone is viewing the game. Or your confident lock town reads, either is helpful. Tyty.

the problem with giving a public PoE is that it tells the mafia whether they should gamble on a nanook shot tonight.

We're going to have to play mafia at some point.

nah that's nanook's job

NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Fri Feb 11, 2022 3:00 pm If some/most of you guys could give four person POEs, that would be super helpful for me to organize how everyone is viewing the game. Or your confident lock town reads, either is helpful. Tyty.