The Syndicate

G-Man wrote: ↑Mon Feb 08, 2021 6:40 pm What if role claiming is prohibited? How would that change the mix?

You’d still never rely on the second part of the soup? Lol

Oh actually the soup odds are much lower than that even cause they’d have to match the scum to their exact ingredient, not just correctly identify the scum.

So yeah, there’d be clear benefit to using the first part of the list on Option 2, and clear benefit to playing it otherwise straight. List maker would obviously still submit guesses if it’s done in private cause why not maybe you get super lucky, but the group shouldn’t claim ever.

(For context playing it straight gives you a ballpark 45% chance to win, versus 33% via soup. Obviously reads can effect this in practice)

It isn’t tangibly easier

In that group of five scenario you’d end up with a situation where if you claim you probably have two people claiming one ingredient and three people claiming a second...and because you have to get it right in one try...you’ve got a 1/3 chance of winning and a 2/3 chance of losing.

Basically, if you try to win via soup you have to correctly identify both town in the group of 5, whereas if you try to win without soup you only have to correctly identify one.

It wouldn’t make the game full auto, but you’d only have to find one or two correct townreads in the half you know contains all the mafia.

Like playing it out, let’s say the game is 8/3 at start

D1 list has all the mafia in top half (let’s say round up to that being 6), you miskill someone in the top half of the list, then mafia NK in the bottom half. Now you go into D2 with 4 confirmed town (the rest of the bottom of the list), and 3 mafia in a group of 5 (the rest of the top of the list)

It makes infinitely more sense for nobody to claim ingredients and you just kill in the group of five, town has four kills at that point so one correct townread inside that group of five locks the game.

Like OK you get all mafia in the top half, great...you don’t start claiming ingredients to narrow down which ones scum have, you just kill through the top half until you win.

At a glance I don’t think option #2 would be incentive enough to use it instead of playing straight

I don’t think there’s any incentive strong enough here for town to claim anything, so it almost certainly just plays out as a mountainous game unless the mafia get lucky with a blind guess.