The Syndicate

[VOTE: Vanity] aubergine

I'm committed to it. I'm not going to strongarm you into voting him Nutella, but I think this is the way we need to go. If I'm wrong, you can beat me up tomorrow for it. :P

Also, hiiii Mendel. <3

nutella wrote: ↑Thu Nov 07, 2019 3:19 pm I'm very torn between thinking TLib is the poe shot we should take based on GH's article, and thinking he's just easy mislynch bait that will leave us as unsatisfied as the boo and ty lynches did. At least a vanity lynch will be interesting either way right?? Ugh I hate that justification though, I just want to make the choice more likely to bag us a wolf. Hmmph

I understand. I want to bag another wolf, too, and I'm probably going to beat myself over it if Vanity ends up flipping town. HOWEVER, I just feel like it's a net positive lynching Vanity now, even if we're wrong on him, especially considering it's all we've talked about for the past three days, lol.

nutella wrote: ↑Thu Nov 07, 2019 1:43 pm @Quin @Lady LambdaDelta you two need to participate. It doesn't feel like you're part of the game and you need to be. Just because you're lost on what's going on in here doesn't give you an excuse to just quit the game. Give us something. Please.

juliets wrote: ↑Thu Nov 07, 2019 1:49 pm Also, I want to join the call out to @Lady LambdaDelta and @Quin. If you are town we really need you.

Yes, this^ [mention]Quin[/mention] [mention]Lady LambdaDelta[/mention]

Also, I find it interesting that every time that TLib and Long Con are talked about, TLib is the one getting voted for and not Long Con.

nutella wrote: ↑Thu Nov 07, 2019 1:59 pm Hyena was voting vanity before and I think he sees me as associated with vanity? Unless he's now concerned about the false dichotomy/that vanity and elephant could both be town and he thinks I was taking advantage of it.

I was doing both at different times. This time it was the latter.

Neither Boo's nor Ty's lynch had a huge impact on the game, I feel, because we're still focusing so much on Elephant vs Vanity. The game is going nowhere and it's getting stale. Let's get it moving again.

nutella wrote: ↑Thu Nov 07, 2019 3:05 pm ...Wait so do you still suspect vanity or are you saying you think he's town but driving you nuts?

I still suspect Vanity.

nutella wrote: ↑Thu Nov 07, 2019 1:39 pm I would just sheep hyena but he's voting for me lol. I would just sheep juliets but she isn't voting currently.

@Hyena we can do vanity I guess. If he flips wolf do your worst on me. I give up.

Well, like, here's the deal. The reason I'm wanting to do vanity is because it still feels like there are good odds that Elephant and Vanity are v/w and that Elephant feels like the more towny of the two. However, if we're feeling that they both are town, then there's no sense in lynching between the two of them anymore.

That's the thing though, however. I don't want to continue talking about Elephant vs Vanity. We've been talking about it for the last three days. Either we need to flip one of them today (I really want Vanity over Elephant), OR we need to fully decide today that they're both town. The game can't progress until we do one of those two things. I want this resolved today so that we can start focusing on other things.

[VOTE: unvote] aubergine

juliets wrote: ↑Thu Nov 07, 2019 7:09 am @Elephant and @Hyena do you feel like vanity was just fabricating his lack of knowledge about why Nanook accepted me and Elephant into the town core?

No, he might've been unaware of it. I'm just annoyed that he didn't go back to see why Elephant was being townread. Like, it doesn't really feel like Vanity has been reading Elephant's, or anybody's really, posts and that he's just blindly pushing Elephant only because of that's what he has been doing. Like, there's no effort to really change direction, aside from occasionally calling people scum when they go against him. It's this lack of effort to evaluate people that's really driving me nuts.

Like, Nutella has been swinging back and forth between Elephant and Vanity, but at least these changes are based on, like, new thoughts and info as they're posted in the thread. Vanity, on the other hand, is perfectly fine refusing to acknowledge Nutella's swinging in spite of there being clear evidence that she has been doing it, and it felt like he was fine with it only because Nutella started townreading him again.

nutella wrote: ↑Thu Nov 07, 2019 1:08 pm I was so attached to my elephant theory for a while lol but I think I was misguided about the thing with juliets so I am backing off. It just made so much sense in my mind but I have to give her some say here.

Come at me Hyena.

Ugh, you're killing me, nutella.

[VOTE: Nutella] aubergine

Honestly, this is what I want to see happen now.

Like, do I really need to go on? Nutella has been swinging wherever the tide goes between Elephant and Vanity, and then, when she has had a chance to flip one of them, she hasn't. TWICE.

nutella wrote: ↑Mon Nov 04, 2019 5:15 pm
vanity. wrote: ↑Mon Nov 04, 2019 5:12 pm yeah elephant's just a wolf. hope people sheep me glgl
I'm on board. I have a particular fear of being wrong about him specifically, but I feel bad enough about his play on balance that I feel okay voting him over you here.

On board with Vanity to lynch Elephant again!

nutella wrote: ↑Mon Nov 04, 2019 5:17 pm
vanity. wrote: ↑Mon Nov 04, 2019 5:15 pm
nutella wrote: ↑Mon Nov 04, 2019 5:15 pm
vanity. wrote: ↑Mon Nov 04, 2019 5:12 pm yeah elephant's just a wolf. hope people sheep me glgl
I'm on board. I have a particular fear of being wrong about him specifically, but I feel bad enough about his play on balance that I feel okay voting him over you here.
you fear being wrong on him? why did you think he was town?
I'd rather not elaborate rn

TBH, I would personally like for you to elaborate because it feels like you don't have good reasons to explain why you're "townreading" either of Elephant or Vanity.

nutella wrote: ↑Mon Nov 04, 2019 5:18 pm
vanity. wrote: ↑Mon Nov 04, 2019 5:16 pm for the record wolves almost certainly voted on me while i was away so guess i'm lock clear xd
How many wolves do you think are in this group? Anyone you specifically think may be teamed with elephant?

nutella wrote: ↑Mon Nov 04, 2019 6:19 pm
NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Mon Nov 04, 2019 6:15 pm Welcome to the town core elephant and juliets

For me it’s between vanity and creature for the kill, nutes I’m guessing you want vanity over creature based off a snippet of a post I saw from you thay was a TR for creature I think?
Ugh idk. I switched very quickly to really thinking vanity is town.

Not totally convinced on the elephant/juliets thing but I guess I can't ask for why I should be.

Maybe we should just lynch ty4on

"Ayy, let's lynch Ty instead of doing what I said I wanted to do earlier and flip one of Elephant or Vanity."

nutella wrote: ↑Sun Nov 03, 2019 10:04 pm
Hyena wrote: ↑Sun Nov 03, 2019 9:28 pm Hmm.

Question to all:

Do you think Spiny/Boo flipping town helped the other group solve people within their group? Do you think one of Vanity's or Elephant's flips will help them? How about Ty4on, who they apparently voted out of the group? Should we be trying to help give them info via flipping the people they send here?
Well I think vanity's or elephant's flip could be interesting to them regardless, though they'd have to assess interactions from d1 based on memory

Supports flipping one of Vanity or Elephant here.

nutella wrote: ↑Sun Nov 03, 2019 11:24 pm
NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Sun Nov 03, 2019 11:13 pm
nutella wrote: ↑Sun Nov 03, 2019 10:26 pmSure
Can we do vanity first or are you set on elephant?
Nah I'll probably be down for vanity. I didn't get around to investigating elephant more today like I meant to, though I might have a chance later or in the morning.

Down for Vanity first.

nutella wrote: ↑Mon Nov 04, 2019 12:24 pm Still waiting for some reaction from vanity to the wagon, but I could be down for an LC counter. I might be on the wrong track with Elephant, and Creature has a point that someone's gotta be skating by without much attention and LC is certainly a prime candidate for that position.

Then she's down for a counter wagon, lol.

nutella wrote: ↑Mon Nov 04, 2019 3:32 pm Nanook why do you think elephant and juliets are unlikely to be w/w? I was just considering that possibility so please enlighten me.

I find myself reaching the general conclusion that vanity is in fact the best choice for today. I have better reasons to townread just about everyone else. And I expect more of a fight from him as town.

Let's just do it [VOTE: vanity] aubergine

Back on board with a vanity lynch!

nutella wrote: ↑Mon Nov 04, 2019 5:12 pm Ugh I do kind of believe the dumbtell though

back to [VOTE: elephant] aubergine

Then effortlessly swings back to voting Elephant, lol.

nutella wrote: ↑Sun Nov 03, 2019 4:32 pm
Hyena wrote: ↑Sun Nov 03, 2019 4:26 pm
NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Sat Nov 02, 2019 10:05 pm
nutella wrote: ↑Sat Nov 02, 2019 9:05 pm [VOTE: Elephant] aubergine
[VOTE: Elephant] aubergine
[VOTE: vanity] aubergine
Mmm?

Here, I placed a vote on Vanity to compete with the Elephant wagon.

nutella wrote: ↑Sun Nov 03, 2019 4:33 pm
Hyena wrote: ↑Sun Nov 03, 2019 4:32 pm
vanity. wrote: ↑Sun Nov 03, 2019 11:50 am hyena why are you such a tough case to crack every time you're in the game...

like i want to say this is villa hyena but... idk what else to say. i don't think it's that simple tbh
I like making this complicated. :P Keeps the game fun.
Actually that's a p bad post from vanity

nutella wrote: ↑Sun Nov 03, 2019 4:38 pm
Hyena wrote: ↑Sun Nov 03, 2019 4:35 pm Nutella, you've called Vanity potential scum a couple times, but you haven't seemed to really push on him all that much from what I've seen. Is there something going on between you two? :P
I'm hesitant to vote for him bc I keep getting pushed back to thinking he's town but at the moment I'm leaning more toward taking suspicion of him more seriously

Swinging BAAAACK to "vanity is more suspicious"

nutella wrote: ↑Sun Nov 03, 2019 4:47 pm
Hyena wrote: ↑Sun Nov 03, 2019 4:43 pm
nutella wrote: ↑Sun Nov 03, 2019 4:26 pm
Trustworthy Liberal wrote: ↑Sun Nov 03, 2019 12:12 pm
juliets wrote: ↑Sun Nov 03, 2019 12:10 pm
vanity. wrote: ↑Sun Nov 03, 2019 12:09 pm is flavor claiming even legal in this game?
JJJ said in the rules post we can claim character but not role or abilities.
Nice I tottaly missed that does it give us anything to flavor claim?
....what is this

you've like, read your role pm right?

or are you scum with a safe claim like dragomir's that you missed somehow lol
This is related to the townslip from him I mentioned yesterday. :P Suppose TL /didn't/ have a fakeclaim and didn't have a role that looked similar to the VTs that have been flipped so far, like Dragomir's for example (he flipped as FORGER). What would that lead you to believe?

(again though, take it with a huuuuge grain of salt)
sure ok

Doesn't challenge me on my TLib read here despite scumreading(?) him earlier.

nutella wrote: ↑Sat Nov 02, 2019 6:47 pm
NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Sat Nov 02, 2019 6:43 pm Someone wanna tag me with cliff notes about who was scummy yesterday here, cause uh....I’m not reading back
Lol like nobody tho. Maybe elephant or vanity but never both

nutella wrote: ↑Sat Nov 02, 2019 7:11 pm
juliets wrote: ↑Sat Nov 02, 2019 6:51 pm Most all of us were read as scum by some at some point in the day (nutella I think we all saw as town all the way through).
And Benson. He and I were both pretty clear of suspicion.

You, LC, and TL I have varying levels of concern about but after yesterday I think it's likely one of elephant or vanity is scum, maybe with TL also based on how that went down.

It's subtle, but she's still pushing that Elephant vs Vanity agenda here. TLib, who Vanity is voting for currently, is also thrown in here, too, as a possible partner to them.

nutella wrote: ↑Sat Nov 02, 2019 7:25 pm @Creature why aren't you scum

@Elephant why aren't you scum

I'ma start with a vote for one of you two probs

nutella wrote: ↑Sat Nov 02, 2019 9:05 pm [VOTE: Elephant] aubergine

nutella wrote: ↑Sat Nov 02, 2019 11:57 pm
juliets wrote: ↑Sat Nov 02, 2019 9:50 pm @nutella did you see my questions to you? If you don't want to talk about both, maybe you could just talk about Elephant since you voted him.
I just feel like he's the most likely scum in this bunch rn, partially poe and partially his thread activity/pushes on d2 (and some on d1). Like in general he seems like he might have an agenda. Could be teamed with TL I guess. I will do more in depth research in a bit, see how I feel about him in relation to Drago and such.

Switching back to the "Elephant is scum" side again.

nutella wrote: ↑Fri Nov 01, 2019 12:48 pm @vanity. sorry dude, like I said I won't blame you for not being around, but please address this post:

nutella wrote: ↑Fri Nov 01, 2019 11:23 am @vanity. you don't have a huge number of D2 posts, and in most of them you have some focus on whether or not certain players were on the Drago wagon and ensuring that we consider potential bussing. I feel like we all reached a consensus that yes we need to look for bussers but somehow your contributions stop there and you haven't been very active in our actual hunting activity so far. If it's just a time issue I won't hold it against you but I do expect a little more when you're available.
And please also address the actual points in elephant's iso. I will probably move off you but only if you take this pressure seriously.

nutella wrote: ↑Fri Nov 01, 2019 11:25 am
vanity. wrote: ↑Wed Oct 30, 2019 6:27 pm
Creature wrote: ↑Wed Oct 30, 2019 6:26 pm When will I be mislynched btw? I want to know when it's ready
why are you so concerned about being lynched today? just because you didn't vote on the wolf wagon?
Not a fan of this post

Still against Vanity at this point, and then....

nutella wrote: ↑Fri Nov 01, 2019 1:11 pm
Benson wrote: ↑Fri Nov 01, 2019 12:57 pm Ugh vanity, the only thing Im nervous about is how concerned you are about how "villagery" you've been. That just makes me suspect you're a wolf that thinks he played a clean game and deserves credit.
But he did the same thing in wc1 to some extent.

I'm still uneasy about him but not feeling great about actually voting him anymore. [VOTE: boo] aubergine

Nothing done to resolve the Elephant vs. Vanity conflict. I'll give her some leeway here though, since things weren't really all that clear at that time.

nutella wrote: ↑Thu Oct 31, 2019 11:28 am
Elephant wrote: ↑Thu Oct 31, 2019 3:51 am The analysis that nutella posted along with her vote history had this:
nutella wrote: ↑Wed Oct 30, 2019 6:07 pmSo vanity was an earlier Drago vote, briefly left it, then eventually was the one to break the tie with Epi. He's probably just town here.

nutella wrote: ↑Wed Oct 30, 2019 6:07 pmBenson, iaafr, and pawn look generally okay but certainly not cleared from this. I'm trying to figure out who looks too clean and it's hard to tell. Maybe vanity.
Why does iaafr ending on "no lynch" look ok to you?
Why does Pawn Lelouch voting Dragomir look ok to you, but Trustworthy Liberal voting him next does not?
Why does Benson sheeping vanity. look ok to you? At the same time, vanity. looks "too clean", how is that?
I struggle to follow your thoughts here, nutella.
Idk, I admit I didn't spend a lot of time thinking about each player and just sort of typed up my first instincts. Your points here are definitely worth considering.

I thought those people looked ok on balance based on timing and how they defended their votes but it's not conclusive by any means.

I think Benson is just very towny overall, but I'm glad you're questioning vanity bc I'm less sure about him.

Elephant's points are now worth considering, and starting to switch on Vanity.

nutella wrote: ↑Fri Nov 01, 2019 11:10 am Ugh as much as I feel attached to my spiny suspicion I have to say boo is looking town now. I think his takes are largely misguided due to culture clash, but I think he really believes them.

Gonna move to [VOTE: vanity] aubergine for some pressure. Where you been dude? Kinda seems like you're coasting

nutella wrote: ↑Fri Nov 01, 2019 11:23 am @vanity. you don't have a huge number of D2 posts, and in most of them you have some focus on whether or not certain players were on the Drago wagon and ensuring that we consider potential bussing. I feel like we all reached a consensus that yes we need to look for bussers but somehow your contributions stop there and you haven't been very active in our actual hunting activity so far. If it's just a time issue I won't hold it against you but I do expect a little more when you're available.

Turns into a vote and accusation against Vanity. What's her opinion on Elephant at this moment? Maybe there isn't an explicit townread but she sure seems open to working with him against vanity at the moment:

nutella wrote: ↑Thu Oct 31, 2019 11:32 am
Elephant wrote: ↑Thu Oct 31, 2019 4:50 am To be absolutely clear, I do not scumread strong player bias per se, nor do I believe that only those players who have posted reads lists today have it. I do suspect the attempt to limit the day's activity to pushes on the weaker players only.
The strong player bias certainly exists and is a real trap that town can often fall into that makes it progressively harder to sniff out deepwolves because certain people are just granted townreads based on style as if they're scum they can coast on that. I'm glad you're bringing it up, the sooner we scrutinize our "strong player" townreads the better.

nutella wrote: ↑Fri Nov 01, 2019 12:11 pm Anyway yeah I am liking elephant's vanity case

nutella wrote: ↑Tue Oct 29, 2019 2:50 pm
112 wrote: ↑Tue Oct 29, 2019 2:36 pm elephant is so agenda-y
Spicy take. How so?

nutella wrote: ↑Tue Oct 29, 2019 2:51 pm
Benson wrote: ↑Tue Oct 29, 2019 2:39 pm
112 wrote: ↑Tue Oct 29, 2019 2:36 pm elephant is so agenda-y
I keep getting pings that he's slowly planting the seeds for future mislynches.
I can see that I guess at least in his interaction with juliets about Tony, that was pretty weird imo.

nutella wrote: ↑Tue Oct 29, 2019 4:29 pm
iaafr wrote: ↑Tue Oct 29, 2019 4:24 pm
nutella wrote: ↑Tue Oct 29, 2019 4:22 pm TL and to some extent Drago feel like the too-easy options for D1. Though Drago has also kinda disappeared. See if some pressure brings him in.[VOTE: drago] aubergine

Prob not staying on either of these guys. I don't want to end in a lame small brained mislynch. I wanna catch the big fishes
who are your big fish candidates
Pawn, LLD, maybe juliets or elephant

nutella wrote: ↑Tue Oct 29, 2019 5:18 pm @Elephant I was thinking of your interaction with juliets as planting seeds on Tony, not on juliets but using her for it. Like she had backed off of her case but you were heavily encouraging her to go back and reinforce it.

Suspicion on Elephant from D1.

nutella wrote: ↑Wed Oct 30, 2019 6:07 pm So vanity was an earlier Drago vote, briefly left it, then eventually was the one to break the tie with Epi. He's probably just town here.

Calls Vanity probably town at the beginning to D2.

(cont.)

vanity. wrote: ↑Wed Nov 06, 2019 8:19 pm
Long Con wrote: ↑Wed Nov 06, 2019 8:06 pm
nutella wrote: ↑Wed Nov 06, 2019 7:59 pm I feel dumb for blindly believing this tbh lol. You're right that elephant being in the towncore was just based on Nanook's read which may not be reliable.
Ok, then I don't get your big vanity turnaround today.
i don't think nutella has done a lot of turning around on me, the only thing is now she doesn't necessarily believe that juliets and elephant are interconnected villagers. wouldn't be surprised if she still wants to lynch me. based on a question i asked her elephant's alignment has nothing to do with mine in her mind.

[mention]vanity.[/mention]
I'm going to show you each time Nutella has flipped between you two. Hold on.

First and foremost,

[VOTE: Vanity] aubergine

Hi. I can't sleep, so I'm going to post a bunch of thoughts.

Elephant wrote: ↑Wed Nov 06, 2019 4:46 pm
Hyena wrote: ↑Wed Nov 06, 2019 4:28 pm
Elephant wrote: ↑Wed Nov 06, 2019 4:13 pm image.jpeg
Ignoring nutella's response for a moment, did my case for potential scum!nutella make you think? Does it, like, balance out the stuff you just mentioned? You're calling it spicy, but does it do anything for you in terms of thoughts? :P
GH was the host for the finale game. He commented any read in spec-chat with that word. To me, it signifies, "could be correct, could be completely wrong".

Whenever a mislynch occurs, we tend to look at the wagon that produced it, and therefore suspicion attaches to nutella, Juliets, and Creature; even more so as vanity failed to self-preserve on this wagon. Since it seems reasonable to assume that not all of these players are scum, it follows that this suspicion attaches to some of these players unjustly -- maybe even to all three of them. I am unwilling to throw my towncore out with the bathwater on that kind of consideration. I do, however, entertain the notion that one of the players voting me yesterday was a wolf. With that assumption, vanity's flip reflects directly on Long Con: it is hardly likely that I had two wolves voting me by themselves, especially since vanity could easily have targetted Ty4on instead. But if vanity is town, Long Con appears in the spotlight.

I like this response. Even if I didn't, what you brought up about the Radishes, Benson, and nutella core and the 112, iaafr, and Epi core reminded me how much I liked the former group. I think that alone drowns out these paranoid, tinfoil thoughts I have, lol. Plus, I liked nutella's response to me, too, especially the last post.

Yeah, Nanook's unvote annoyed me. Ty's flip isn't bad, but I really wanted that Vanity flip.

Elephant wrote: ↑Wed Nov 06, 2019 4:13 pm image.jpeg

Ignoring nutella's response for a moment, did my case for potential scum!nutella make you think? Does it, like, balance out the stuff you just mentioned? You're calling it spicy, but does it do anything for you in terms of thoughts? :P

Okay.

nutella wrote: ↑Wed Nov 06, 2019 4:18 pm
Hyena wrote: ↑Wed Nov 06, 2019 3:57 pm
Hyena wrote: ↑Wed Nov 06, 2019 3:57 pm
Hyena wrote: ↑Wed Nov 06, 2019 3:38 pm
nutella wrote: ↑Tue Nov 05, 2019 11:37 pm
nutella wrote: ↑Tue Nov 05, 2019 11:34 pm Elephant and Juliets are supposedly just town, though I suspected each of them for a bit.
Hyena has been a strong townread of mine for a while but I might need to consider reevaluating that read (especially in the case vanity flips town i guess)
Creature, LC, and TLib are question marks but all townleans imo for various reasons
This is part of my takeaway from the strategy article I linked earlier. I have been as strong a consensus townread as Benson and Nanook were, yet they were selected as NKs over me, so it may be the case that wolves are keeping me around due to one of my townreads in fact being one of them. I strongly townread and defended vanity for a fair bit of yesterday, so it could be him, but there could be a universe where it's Hyena.
After rereading this again, I think your take on me is a healthy one. If I were to make a similar read, you'd probably be the the one I'd need to consider reevaluating, too, with Elephant as a distant second.
Adding on to this, I feel like the status quo right now is that one of Elephant or Vanity is scum and that you are town. If I were to make a read right now that would go completely against this, I'd probably say that both Elephant and Vanity are actually town and that you are scum that's hopping between both sides whenever it's convenient. It would also explain that lack of a Vanity vote EoD3 to seal his lynch, because I think you, as scum, would want to prolong the Elephant vs. Vanity antics as long as possible to provide a distraction for town. Why is this the case?
Why ISN'T this the case** rather
It's absolutely possible that elephant and vanity are both town. That doesn't make me scum though. I backed off on elephant when some people claimed he was pseudo-confirmed for some reason with a link to juliets. As for vanity I honestly believed his defense yesterday up until the end, and regretted not changing my vote when I realized he still was probably just the better choice there. I'm not hopping back and forth, I'm assessing based on changing circumstances/evidence.

Okay. You believed Vanity's defense yesterday. Now, you're voting him. Was it simply Ty's flip that changed your mind on him? Like, explain the progression from you believing him to you not believing him today. What tipped you over to the point of scumreading him again?

nutella wrote: ↑Wed Nov 06, 2019 4:15 pm I only advocated holstering based on a misguided assumption that the other side may have gotten Ty's flip which we know is not the case. In general I'm in favor of the vig resolving slots that are giving us trouble, as long as they have role points and there is a reasonable candidate.

I'm not sure how this relates to what I just said. o:

Elephant wrote: ↑Wed Nov 06, 2019 3:57 pm
Hyena wrote: ↑Wed Nov 06, 2019 3:38 pm
nutella wrote: ↑Tue Nov 05, 2019 11:37 pm
nutella wrote: ↑Tue Nov 05, 2019 11:34 pm Elephant and Juliets are supposedly just town, though I suspected each of them for a bit.
Hyena has been a strong townread of mine for a while but I might need to consider reevaluating that read (especially in the case vanity flips town i guess)
Creature, LC, and TLib are question marks but all townleans imo for various reasons
This is part of my takeaway from the strategy article I linked earlier. I have been as strong a consensus townread as Benson and Nanook were, yet they were selected as NKs over me, so it may be the case that wolves are keeping me around due to one of my townreads in fact being one of them. I strongly townread and defended vanity for a fair bit of yesterday, so it could be him, but there could be a universe where it's Hyena.
After rereading this again, I think your take on me is a healthy one. If I were to make a similar read, you'd probably be the the one I'd need to consider reevaluating, too, with Elephant as a distant second.
Re-evaluating nutella would probably upset my world the most. I watched a formation of players on D1, Mr Radishes and Benson and nutella, and then 112 and iaafr and Epignosis in relation to them. My townreads of Benson and nutella stem from that day.

Someone suggested yesterday that the vigilante should shoot the other wagon again, who was that? nutella advocated holstering, didn't she?

Riiiight. Okay, yeah, I remember that. This is important, because I too was growing suspicious of the latter three, especially 112.

Hyena wrote: ↑Wed Nov 06, 2019 3:57 pm
Hyena wrote: ↑Wed Nov 06, 2019 3:57 pm
Hyena wrote: ↑Wed Nov 06, 2019 3:38 pm
nutella wrote: ↑Tue Nov 05, 2019 11:37 pm
nutella wrote: ↑Tue Nov 05, 2019 11:34 pm Elephant and Juliets are supposedly just town, though I suspected each of them for a bit.
Hyena has been a strong townread of mine for a while but I might need to consider reevaluating that read (especially in the case vanity flips town i guess)
Creature, LC, and TLib are question marks but all townleans imo for various reasons
This is part of my takeaway from the strategy article I linked earlier. I have been as strong a consensus townread as Benson and Nanook were, yet they were selected as NKs over me, so it may be the case that wolves are keeping me around due to one of my townreads in fact being one of them. I strongly townread and defended vanity for a fair bit of yesterday, so it could be him, but there could be a universe where it's Hyena.
After rereading this again, I think your take on me is a healthy one. If I were to make a similar read, you'd probably be the the one I'd need to consider reevaluating, too, with Elephant as a distant second.
Adding on to this, I feel like the status quo right now is that one of Elephant or Vanity is scum and that you are town. If I were to make a read right now that would go completely against this, I'd probably say that both Elephant and Vanity are actually town and that you are scum that's hopping between both sides whenever it's convenient. It would also explain that lack of a Vanity vote EoD3 to seal his lynch, because I think you, as scum, would want to prolong the Elephant vs. Vanity antics as long as possible to provide a distraction for town. Why is this the case?
Why ISN'T this the case** rather

And, I think this is more relevant now since LLD made it to our thread and she was scumreading you on D1.

Hyena wrote: ↑Wed Nov 06, 2019 3:57 pm
Hyena wrote: ↑Wed Nov 06, 2019 3:38 pm
nutella wrote: ↑Tue Nov 05, 2019 11:37 pm
nutella wrote: ↑Tue Nov 05, 2019 11:34 pm Elephant and Juliets are supposedly just town, though I suspected each of them for a bit.
Hyena has been a strong townread of mine for a while but I might need to consider reevaluating that read (especially in the case vanity flips town i guess)
Creature, LC, and TLib are question marks but all townleans imo for various reasons
This is part of my takeaway from the strategy article I linked earlier. I have been as strong a consensus townread as Benson and Nanook were, yet they were selected as NKs over me, so it may be the case that wolves are keeping me around due to one of my townreads in fact being one of them. I strongly townread and defended vanity for a fair bit of yesterday, so it could be him, but there could be a universe where it's Hyena.
After rereading this again, I think your take on me is a healthy one. If I were to make a similar read, you'd probably be the the one I'd need to consider reevaluating, too, with Elephant as a distant second.
Adding on to this, I feel like the status quo right now is that one of Elephant or Vanity is scum and that you are town. If I were to make a read right now that would go completely against this, I'd probably say that both Elephant and Vanity are actually town and that you are scum that's hopping between both sides whenever it's convenient. It would also explain that lack of a Vanity vote EoD3 to seal his lynch, because I think you, as scum, would want to prolong the Elephant vs. Vanity antics as long as possible to provide a distraction for town. Why is this the case?

Why ISN'T this the case** rather

Hyena wrote: ↑Wed Nov 06, 2019 3:38 pm
nutella wrote: ↑Tue Nov 05, 2019 11:37 pm
nutella wrote: ↑Tue Nov 05, 2019 11:34 pm Elephant and Juliets are supposedly just town, though I suspected each of them for a bit.
Hyena has been a strong townread of mine for a while but I might need to consider reevaluating that read (especially in the case vanity flips town i guess)
Creature, LC, and TLib are question marks but all townleans imo for various reasons
This is part of my takeaway from the strategy article I linked earlier. I have been as strong a consensus townread as Benson and Nanook were, yet they were selected as NKs over me, so it may be the case that wolves are keeping me around due to one of my townreads in fact being one of them. I strongly townread and defended vanity for a fair bit of yesterday, so it could be him, but there could be a universe where it's Hyena.
After rereading this again, I think your take on me is a healthy one. If I were to make a similar read, you'd probably be the the one I'd need to consider reevaluating, too, with Elephant as a distant second.

Adding on to this, I feel like the status quo right now is that one of Elephant or Vanity is scum and that you are town. If I were to make a read right now that would go completely against this, I'd probably say that both Elephant and Vanity are actually town and that you are scum that's hopping between both sides whenever it's convenient. It would also explain that lack of a Vanity vote EoD3 to seal his lynch, because I think you, as scum, would want to prolong the Elephant vs. Vanity antics as long as possible to provide a distraction for town. Why is this the case?

nutella wrote: ↑Tue Nov 05, 2019 11:37 pm
nutella wrote: ↑Tue Nov 05, 2019 11:34 pm Elephant and Juliets are supposedly just town, though I suspected each of them for a bit.
Hyena has been a strong townread of mine for a while but I might need to consider reevaluating that read (especially in the case vanity flips town i guess)
Creature, LC, and TLib are question marks but all townleans imo for various reasons
This is part of my takeaway from the strategy article I linked earlier. I have been as strong a consensus townread as Benson and Nanook were, yet they were selected as NKs over me, so it may be the case that wolves are keeping me around due to one of my townreads in fact being one of them. I strongly townread and defended vanity for a fair bit of yesterday, so it could be him, but there could be a universe where it's Hyena.

After rereading this again, I think your take on me is a healthy one. If I were to make a similar read, you'd probably be the the one I'd need to consider reevaluating, too, with Elephant as a distant second.

Long Con wrote: ↑Tue Nov 05, 2019 10:27 pm Hello, thread. First, I want to say that Ty4on's death was hilarious. Tragic and all, but he... just... got himself killed for a joke? I don't know. Never seen such a thing.

I see vanity is a current lynch favourite, not surprising. Just got home from work, and I'm going to a friend's house. So I'll catch y'all on the flippity-flop.

How do you feel about Vanity becoming the current lynch favorite? Do you think it's become too status quo? Like, from your perspective, what's the status quo right now? And what kinda read do you think would go COMPLETELY against the status quo right now? I want you to play devil's advocate again.

Elephant wrote: ↑Wed Nov 06, 2019 8:26 am I wonder why unrelated thoughts keep entering my mind as I read Trustworthy Liberal's ISO. I like Hyena and Creature because their play style tends to keep the game state fluid. They seem to have a knack for spotting stale players and challenging them. As long as either one of them is doing this, we shouldn't be stuck on a powerwolf gamestate.

This is my hope, at least. <3

Elephant wrote: ↑Wed Nov 06, 2019 7:21 am
Hyena wrote: ↑Wed Nov 06, 2019 12:34 am WAIT

BOO'S MASON PARTNER MIGHT'VE BEEN THE ONE PUSHING THOSE THREE, OR AT LEAST, TRYING TO MAKE A CASE FOR 112 AND EVENSTAR!
If iaafr was softing a mason role on D2, then why did we lynch Boo on the same day? Is there anything in Spiny/Boo's ISO that betrayed their mason role, that could have been found, or rather, is there anything in iaafr's ISO that pointed at Spiny? It's a long shot, but if scum could make that link, they could have engineered that lynch.

Firstly, I didn't know that Boo was mason until he flipped, so I didn't think to look at who was softing that they were masons with him until after.

Secondly, I actually did take a look at iaafr's ISO after the thought occured to me, and, like, I didn't see as many references to Spiny as I'd think to see if they were mason partners? Spiny mentioned iaafr a bunch though before she replaced out, which is why I think it still could be iaafr. I dunno for sure though.

Elephant wrote: ↑Wed Nov 06, 2019 6:00 am
Hyena wrote: ↑Wed Nov 06, 2019 12:46 am @Elephant I noticed that you haven't really spoken much about TLib. I think the one time you did, which was in response to being asked if you thought that TLib was a mislynch or not, you mentioned that you hadn't really put effort into evaluating him. Do you have any thoughts on him now? Like, it doesn't even look like you two have directly interacted at all.
I did invest some effort into Trustworthy Liberal, and this should be documented, on D2, I believe? I have somewhat of an idea of Trustworthy Liberal's personality: he tends to appear mildly confused at most times, which leads to him missing mechanical details as to how the forum works up to other things that have been going on in the game, in a friendly and harmless fashion. I like him. I find Trustworthy Liberal difficult to read, though, because I can't read him on shading information (that's just TL being TL), and I can't analyze his influence on the thread, because my impression is that he's barely had any? (To do: re-check this statement!) His solving process is different from mine, and will take a dig and deep thought to understand. Before I have done that, I anticipate me interacting with him would mostly lead to misunderstandings. I have not seen a convincing case on Trustworthy Liberal, and don't expect vanity. will be producing one; he could be the analogue to the DFaraday wagon today, but he really shouldn't be, because there is enough material to make a more informed decision about him.

(My bad then! I'll look again more closely next time.)

I can definitely agree that TLib hasn't really had much influence on the thread. If I remember correctly, this was the case in our qualifier game in Champs, too. More often than not, he mostly helped give other people (the ones he townreads) more influence in the thread by latching on to them and sheeping them. That's what it seemed like anyway. In G8, he latched on to Dan's read on me and pushed me along with Dan for, like, the first half of D1. In this game, I'm getting that he also likes to use past meta to a degree to form his reads on people, which might be where his initial concern about me came from? I remember him stating that I was showing similarities to how I played in G8.

I kinda want to see if Vanity does produce a case on him, even if he has stated that his previous post may be his last post in the game. Long Con's case on him felt like the only one I've seen that has had substance.

(Speaking of Long Con, where has he gone? I feel like I keep forgetting about him.)

Lady LambdaDelta wrote: ↑Wed Nov 06, 2019 4:02 am I have no fucking idea what is happening lol

I can relate.

nutella wrote: ↑Wed Nov 06, 2019 1:59 am You mean boo could have passed along your cases to someone who pushed them on the other side? Seems like kind of a stretch but ok... do you have a point that helps us here though or no?

Yes, that's what I mean. No, it doesn't help us here at the moment, I think. I just thought it was interesting.

nutella wrote: ↑Tue Nov 05, 2019 8:09 pm I would like everyone when they have a minute to read this and tell me your thoughts on it in the context of this game.

I'll take a look at this in a bit.

[mention]Elephant[/mention] I noticed that you haven't really spoken much about TLib. I think the one time you did, which was in response to being asked if you thought that TLib was a mislynch or not, you mentioned that you hadn't really put effort into evaluating him. Do you have any thoughts on him now? Like, it doesn't even look like you two have directly interacted at all.

juliets wrote: ↑Tue Nov 05, 2019 7:34 pm
Creature wrote: ↑Tue Nov 05, 2019 7:31 pm
juliets wrote: ↑Tue Nov 05, 2019 7:22 pm
Creature wrote: ↑Tue Nov 05, 2019 7:22 pm I'm thinking maybe it didn't really matter who was lynched yesterday
Talk some more about that Creature, what do you mean?
If nutella, you and I are all town, wouldn't scum jump on Ty4on to save vanity? Or is vanity the only scum present here?
hmmm...that's a good question. If there are two scum here and vanity is one then why wouldn't the other vote Ty.

I need to think on this. In the meantime, I'm tabling Vanity until I reevaluate everyone.

[mention]vanity.[/mention]Did you switch from pushing Elephant to pushing TLib because you thought people were unwilling to join you on Elephant? If not, can you explain why?

WAIT

BOO'S MASON PARTNER MIGHT'VE BEEN THE ONE PUSHING THOSE THREE, OR AT LEAST, TRYING TO MAKE A CASE FOR 112 AND EVENSTAR!

Quin wrote: ↑Tue Nov 05, 2019 11:21 pm
nutella wrote: ↑Tue Nov 05, 2019 11:18 pm
Quin wrote: ↑Tue Nov 05, 2019 11:12 pm also not that it matters at this moment but iaafr is my top suspect. i'll make that case when he shows up.
interesting. I'd like to hear more about why. And generally about how the players on the other side have been behaving
I think iaafr had TMI about stuff going on in this thread. That's all I'm comfortable saying at this time.

Best ask Lady about what actually happened those days if you want specifics. I know Epi, 112 and Evenstar were brought up a lot as suspects.

So, the thing I find interesting here is that Epi, 112, and Evenstar were being heavily suspected there, especially 112 and Evenstar. I talked about those two a little bit D2:

Hyena wrote: ↑Thu Oct 31, 2019 2:41 pm
Creature wrote: ↑Wed Oct 30, 2019 6:49 pm
Benson wrote: ↑Wed Oct 30, 2019 6:10 pm
Elephant wrote: ↑Wed Oct 30, 2019 6:09 pm I still believe 112 was mafia as well.
Drago went after them very early in the game. Would he do that to a new teammate he's unfamiliar with?

lol, I remember this interaction and I remember thinking it was "over the top" enough that it could have been a w/w interaction based on the model I have in my head of Eva's playstyle. In this case, I think it would've been an attempt to distance from Dragomir. She also explicitly said that even though she didn't like Dragomir, she didn't want to lynch him yesterday, which was why had her vote on 112.

Interestingly enough, 112's vote was ON Evenstar, so they were both voting each other EoD.

Hyena wrote: ↑Thu Oct 31, 2019 9:03 pm
Benson wrote: ↑Thu Oct 31, 2019 8:59 pm
Hyena wrote: ↑Thu Oct 31, 2019 8:55 pm
Elephant wrote: ↑Thu Oct 31, 2019 3:59 pm
Hyena wrote: ↑Thu Oct 31, 2019 2:47 pm
boo wrote: ↑Wed Oct 30, 2019 7:08 pm My biggest suspect within our group is Hyena (and, happily enough, in general). The drive to force a tie (s)he, sorry, don't know most of you in this game yet engaged in struck me as wrong at the time, going so far as to ask me after I put the no lynch vote down to flip it to help cause a tie.
So, I gave an explanation earlier for why I was trying to tie the wagons as much as possible at EoD. I don't think we would've gathered much information if the wagons remained uneven before, like, the last moment. People were changing their votes between Dragomir and 112 until the very last moment, but there wouldn't have been a need to if one wagon remained greater than the other.
What exactly is the information we gathered, please?
Well, for one, Evenstar came back to the thread about 10 minutes before EoD (5:48pm specifically) after being gone for a couple hours, and she expressed over the top panic not only about the day almost being over, but also about Epi being wagoned. At that moment (you can double check using the vote info juliets posted this morning), Epi had four votes [iiafr, Mac, nova, and me]. Also at this moment, according to Juliet's timeline, 112 had four votes, too, before iaafr switched from Epi to 112 and putting 112 at 5 votes.

(Actually going back to look at it now, there had to be five votes before iaafr joined because 112 ended up with 7 votes, and only Nova and Eva joined and stayed on 112 after this time point. By the looks of it, these five people were [Creature, Tony, Elephant, Epi, and Jack]. This actually strengthens my case.)

Anyway, at that moment, the votes seemed to be 112 at 5 votes, Drago at 7 votes, and Epi at 4 votes. While you could believe that Eva genuinely came back at that moment and genuinely was frustrated with the Epi voters, she ended up not trying to go after the Epi voters. Instead, she ended up voting for 112 while also adding that she wasn't sure if Drago was scum or not. I have a suspicion that she returned that late in the day to try to bolster 112's wagon with her own vote to try to save 112. She placed her vote at 5:57pm, right near day end.

That was just ONE thing I noticed.
You mean Drago here, right? Or Epi?

Yeah, Eva definitely lost a lot of her town equity after that EoD performance.
DRAGO

Thank you for catching that error. >.<

Hyena wrote: ↑Thu Oct 31, 2019 9:38 pm
Long Con wrote: ↑Thu Oct 31, 2019 9:19 pm
juliets wrote: ↑Thu Oct 31, 2019 9:17 pm
Long Con wrote: ↑Thu Oct 31, 2019 8:59 pm
juliets wrote: ↑Thu Oct 31, 2019 7:21 am @Long Con as it pertains to TL's reasons for voting Drago, I didn't see anything wrong with those reasons. Were your reasons better? What were they?
I generally suspected him more than 112. He was preoccupied with trying to shape a case around 112 saying he was going to roleplay, even though I don't think 112 ever really did it. His "mindmeld buddies" comment on the Mac TMI thing was cringey as well... what did I say before, like a slick salesman or something?

It was also easy to want to vote for him due to his crap with Evenstar, which I didn't like. I don't know if that was alignment-indicative, but it sure made the vote easier.
Thanks LC, yeah I also felt like he was determined to prove that 112 was coming from a scummy place by trying to set herself up for a "town claim". His persistence in that gives 112 some town points in my mind. I don't really think the Eva stuff was AI, other than the possibility he was trying to appear light-hearted thus towny. Didn't come off that way though.
I've never seen Drago be like that before... his flip makes me think it could be some awkward distancing between them, especially when she didn't vote for him.
WAIT. So that WASN'T normal Drago behaviour? Because I mentioned the possibility that that whole thing between Drago and Eva could have been performed to put distance between themselves.

Hyena wrote: ↑Fri Nov 01, 2019 5:03 pm I think I've been so hesitant about even considering Elephant as a lynch is because I agree with him on two things.
1. Drago flipping mafia doesn't clear 112, and that, in fact, she could still be scum, and
2. I didn't feel good about Vanity saying that five people (the Drago non-voters) should be focused on today, and that it felt like he was trying to narrow discussion.

On the other hand, aside from #2, I don't really have any issues with Vanity, and he would still be my top town if it weren't for #2.

Hyena wrote: ↑Sun Nov 03, 2019 5:17 pm
vanity. wrote: ↑Sun Oct 27, 2019 4:17 pm also 112 jumping onto me calling iaafr 3p was interesting

i didn't even necessarily believe it, and i was joking the post before. i just threw it out there sorta as a meme and uhhh... i don't know where i'm going with this. 112 bandwagoning onto it somewhat doesn't necessarily feel wolfy though. if something pinged them about iaafr then cool.
Hmmmmm...

This makes me wish 112 was here and not in the other group. They did something similar in Wildcards and I let it slide. She ended up being scum, lol.

I guess my main question right now is who from your group was suspecting those three you mentioned the most?

Okay, things are getting pretty interesting. I'll be back in a moment with some quoted posts.

NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Mon Nov 04, 2019 6:57 pm Juliets is in the towncore, no questions

If elephant is she is too

Okay, than I want to switch out TLib for juliets.

NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Mon Nov 04, 2019 6:56 pm
Hyena wrote: ↑Mon Nov 04, 2019 6:52 pm
vanity. wrote: ↑Mon Nov 04, 2019 6:52 pm i don't even need to see the towncore and i already know that it's bollocks.

i've had no information of this. why don't you guys share this poe with the class?
Me, nutella, Nanook, TLib, Elephant.
Juliets

You said she was in "I don't know land." :P

Ty4on wrote: ↑Mon Nov 04, 2019 6:54 pm
Hyena wrote: ↑Mon Nov 04, 2019 6:52 pm
vanity. wrote: ↑Mon Nov 04, 2019 6:52 pm i don't even need to see the towncore and i already know that it's bollocks.

i've had no information of this. why don't you guys share this poe with the class?
Me, nutella, Nanook, TLib, Elephant.
TLib and Elephant?

Yes.

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