The Syndicate

[mention]Elephant[/mention] Regarding votes with vanity:
I think it was a combination of circumstance and agreeing with vanity's mindset, while also town reading him. Further, I'm the type of person that enjoys showing chaos near the deadline to potentially snuff out once we have flips. That's why I quickly moved to TSP when it became viable again. That wagon didn't go anywhere so we went back to Drago, which is ultimately where I wanted to end up I was also very comfortable at the type of people supporting the Drago wagon - most of whom I was town reading. (I was never voting 112 just because of our history).

nutella wrote: ↑Thu Oct 31, 2019 11:32 am

Elephant wrote: ↑Thu Oct 31, 2019 4:50 am To be absolutely clear, I do not scumread strong player bias per se, nor do I believe that only those players who have posted reads lists today have it. I do suspect the attempt to limit the day's activity to pushes on the weaker players only.

The strong player bias certainly exists and is a real trap that town can often fall into that makes it progressively harder to sniff out deepwolves because certain people are just granted townreads based on style as if they're scum they can coast on that. I'm glad you're bringing it up, the sooner we scrutinize our "strong player" townreads the better.

I think it's a fair point from Elephant and I do need to reevaluate some of my biases. I've seen too many wolves coast to the end from a good round 1.
But I'll say this: my town reads tend to be quite fluid and dependent on new information. So right now, the people who heavily pushed Drago look good, but if 112 ends up being a wolf too then all those town reads/leans are immediately reevaluated.

Elephant wrote: ↑Thu Oct 31, 2019 2:45 am

vanity. wrote: ↑Wed Oct 30, 2019 6:17 pm tlib
elephant
juliets
long con
dfaraday

this is the list of suspects i'm working within today. get crackalackin.

With distance, sometimes issues appear more clearly than when they are close. We are left with eleven players in that part of the subconscious we are tasked to defend. Four of us have reached the wildcards or the finale: Spiny Creature/boo, Hyena, nutella, and vanity. They are all absent on vanity's list. Benson and Creature also do not appear on this list. It appears to me that vanity. has constructed his suspect pool largely along the lines of player ability, exempting the better players from suspicion, and going after what could be considered "low hanging fruit" in this game, with its overall high standard of players. @vanity. , what was your intention behind creating this suspect list? To be quite overt about it, it does look like scum pushing mislynch bait. I am going to examine if other players here identify player quality with player alignment, but for now, I shall [VOTE: vanity.] aubergine.

If you want one more I've also reached the finale

Nutella, what do you think of Long Con? He's a big fat null for me but I generally like what he says.

Elephant deserves some significant attention in coming days. His EoD was one of the weaker ones.

"person who has been mislynched 90% of the time in forum mafia is sad about another lynching call the cops"

I'm dead. I like you TL.

Trustworthy is almost too adorable to lynch

I dig the analysis, LC. I had similar concerns.

The only thing I'll argue is the TMI about the threads. My initial assumption was also that we were split into two groups.

Long Con wrote: ↑Wed Oct 30, 2019 11:55 pm I don't miss iaafr. I seriously started skipping his posts altogether. Nothing against the guy, but his reads were total chaos, more than I have seen.

Awe I loved iaafr. I think he operates and thinks similar to me.

Long Con wrote: ↑Wed Oct 30, 2019 11:48 pm

Benson wrote: ↑Wed Oct 30, 2019 11:38 pm I'm not sure what to make of Creature acting so defeated already. I think it's genuine frustration, but I suppose that could still be frustration from being a caught wolf.

AtE perhaps? He is part of a drastically narrowed list of possible scum.

I feel like his shtick is to tug on AtE strings, scum or town. But idk, I've never played with him before.

I'm not sure what to make of Creature acting so defeated already. I think it's genuine frustration, but I suppose that could still be frustration from being a caught wolf.

Another question of curiosity: have both groups gone down a level in the subconscious? Or is one group still at the first level while the other was "sent down" This won't make much sense if you haven't seen the movie.

Long Con wrote: ↑Wed Oct 30, 2019 9:48 pm We have everything back to the beginning of the game in this thread. Why do we get to own it? Does the other thread(s) have a copy of the whole thread? If not, they are running on memory and current-phase-only stuff. Of course, they might not be lynching at all.

I assumed the thread was somehow duplicated for each group?

nutella wrote: ↑Wed Oct 30, 2019 8:02 pm

Benson wrote: ↑Wed Oct 30, 2019 7:56 pm Huh, Epignosis viewing thread?

Uh oh mod privilege abuse (I'm sure it was accidental, epj is very honorable)

Yeah I assumed as much. I was just poking fun. I think the entire community and culture here is amazing.

Huh, Epignosis viewing thread?

boo wrote: ↑Wed Oct 30, 2019 7:19 pm

Benson wrote: ↑Wed Oct 30, 2019 7:10 pm

boo wrote: ↑Wed Oct 30, 2019 7:08 pm I didn't get through everything, but am reasonably up-to-date now all the same. I just skipped D0 and went from the lynch forward, skimming anything that seemed like fluff and focussing on what was relevant to me, meaning Spiny's posts and interactions as one of the only two things I am clear on).

My biggest suspect within our group is Hyena (and, happily enough, in general). The drive to force a tie (s)he, sorry, don't know most of you in this game yet engaged in struck me as wrong at the time, going so far as to ask me after I put the no lynch vote down to flip it to help cause a tie.

I do have a general question for people though. Given the size of this game, I would expect 2 baddie teams, not 1. If it was discussed, I missed that, but I am interested in thoughts. Because a lot of people here seem to be drawing what seem like pretty bold civ-reads (although one of my biggest takeaways is that people are not nearly as gunshy about doing that as I am used to, so maybe that's just a style that exists now?) after the Drago lynch on people who I read as just as likely being a counter-team.

I am under the impression we're dealing with a standard wolf team, and a weaker third party.

What is a standard wolf team to you, though?

I haven't played a game at all in... a year? I dunno, it's been a while. And that was just one or two with a year+ before that being when I was last really active. To me, the standard set up is 2 different mafia teams, in a game of 30 probably 4 players each, 5 if there's some strong independents that are more civ-aligned by design.

I'm assuming based on your response though, you're used to a different dynamic? How large would a standard wolf team be in a setup you're used to?

Off the top of my head I'm thinking 6-7 wolves (inceptors) and 1-3 third party; the rest villagers.

Creature wrote: ↑Wed Oct 30, 2019 7:15 pm The day I decide to contribute I am lynched, so why should I even keep trying?

To fulfill your wincon??

I thought Hyena had legitimate reasons for driving a close lynch near EoD but I'll let him address that before I say anything.

Creature wrote: ↑Wed Oct 30, 2019 7:09 pm

Benson wrote: ↑Wed Oct 30, 2019 6:48 pm

Creature wrote: ↑Wed Oct 30, 2019 6:45 pm

My bum is on your lips wrote:Wolf reads
Nova - Tried extensively to push away from the Drago lynch. Like his ISO is literally 50% defending Drago or trying to lynch a CW. Prime suspect today.

I don't think that's necessarily scummy, could be just wrong townie. At least I'd expect scum to be more discreet unless I'm missing something.

Nova pings me so much because I don't understand his reasoning for being so firmly against the Dragomir wagon. It was like he was trying to get anyone (112 or Epignosis) lynched, as long as it wasn't Drag. Yes, this does seem strange for a wolf to do so blatantly, but it could have been because Drago had a power role and maybe he really wanted to preserve that?

Yes, godfather is such a strong role, we can't afford losing one.

boo wrote: ↑Wed Oct 30, 2019 7:08 pm I didn't get through everything, but am reasonably up-to-date now all the same. I just skipped D0 and went from the lynch forward, skimming anything that seemed like fluff and focussing on what was relevant to me, meaning Spiny's posts and interactions as one of the only two things I am clear on).

My biggest suspect within our group is Hyena (and, happily enough, in general). The drive to force a tie (s)he, sorry, don't know most of you in this game yet engaged in struck me as wrong at the time, going so far as to ask me after I put the no lynch vote down to flip it to help cause a tie.

I do have a general question for people though. Given the size of this game, I would expect 2 baddie teams, not 1. If it was discussed, I missed that, but I am interested in thoughts. Because a lot of people here seem to be drawing what seem like pretty bold civ-reads (although one of my biggest takeaways is that people are not nearly as gunshy about doing that as I am used to, so maybe that's just a style that exists now?) after the Drago lynch on people who I read as just as likely being a counter-team.

I am under the impression we're dealing with a standard wolf team, and a weaker third party.

Only interactions of note that I can find between Drag and Spiny. I guess it looks okay on Spiny/Boo.
Draw your own conclusions but there isn't much there.

Creature wrote: ↑Wed Oct 30, 2019 6:54 pm

Benson wrote: ↑Wed Oct 30, 2019 6:25 pm The fact that TLib is interested in find the bussers on the wagon kinda looks good on him. If he were a wolf I think he'd want to soak up the credit for being on that wagon instead of insinuating there may have been bussing.

Not necessarily

though I townlean him for other reasons

I know. But it's at least *somewhat* villagery for him to think that.

juliets wrote: ↑Wed Oct 30, 2019 6:52 pm

Benson wrote: ↑Wed Oct 30, 2019 6:48 pm

Creature wrote: ↑Wed Oct 30, 2019 6:45 pm

My bum is on your lips wrote:Wolf reads
Nova - Tried extensively to push away from the Drago lynch. Like his ISO is literally 50% defending Drago or trying to lynch a CW. Prime suspect today.

I don't think that's necessarily scummy, could be just wrong townie. At least I'd expect scum to be more discreet unless I'm missing something.

Nova pings me so much because I don't understand his reasoning for being so firmly against the Dragomir wagon. It was like he was trying to get anyone (112 or Epignosis) lynched, as long as it wasn't Drag. Yes, this does seem strange for a wolf to do so blatantly, but it could have been because Drago had a power role and maybe he really wanted to preserve that?

Drago was The Godfather. They put it in the OP.

Yeah, I know. I messed up my wording.

Benson wrote: ↑Wed Oct 30, 2019 6:48 pm

Creature wrote: ↑Wed Oct 30, 2019 6:45 pm

My bum is on your lips wrote:Wolf reads
Nova - Tried extensively to push away from the Drago lynch. Like his ISO is literally 50% defending Drago or trying to lynch a CW. Prime suspect today.

I don't think that's necessarily scummy, could be just wrong townie. At least I'd expect scum to be more discreet unless I'm missing something.

Nova pings me so much because I don't understand his reasoning for being so firmly against the Dragomir wagon. It was like he was trying to get anyone (112 or Epignosis) lynched, as long as it wasn't Drag. Yes, this does seem strange for a wolf to do so blatantly, but it could have been because Drago had a power role and maybe he really wanted to preserve that?

This should say powerful role, not power role. I suppose the Godfather isn't as strong in games where you can't claim anything, however.

Creature wrote: ↑Wed Oct 30, 2019 6:45 pm

My bum is on your lips wrote:Wolf reads
Nova - Tried extensively to push away from the Drago lynch. Like his ISO is literally 50% defending Drago or trying to lynch a CW. Prime suspect today.

I don't think that's necessarily scummy, could be just wrong townie. At least I'd expect scum to be more discreet unless I'm missing something.

Nova pings me so much because I don't understand his reasoning for being so firmly against the Dragomir wagon. It was like he was trying to get anyone (112 or Epignosis) lynched, as long as it wasn't Drag. Yes, this does seem strange for a wolf to do so blatantly, but it could have been because Drago had a power role and maybe he really wanted to preserve that?

Benson wrote: ↑Wed Oct 30, 2019 6:41 pm

nutella wrote: ↑Wed Oct 30, 2019 6:36 pm

vanity. wrote: ↑Wed Oct 30, 2019 6:27 pm

Creature wrote: ↑Wed Oct 30, 2019 6:26 pm When will I be mislynched btw? I want to know when it's ready

why are you so concerned about being lynched today? just because you didn't vote on the wolf wagon?

Yeah creature stop whining and help us solve. Some of us still townread you but that could change if you don't participate in a helpful way.

Yep. I don't like the AtE pleas. And I don't like the scattered opinions that look more like a wolf trying to look busy, rather than a villager trying to helpfully game-solve.

I should clarify that by "don't like" I mean they are making me suspicious.

nutella wrote: ↑Wed Oct 30, 2019 6:36 pm

vanity. wrote: ↑Wed Oct 30, 2019 6:27 pm

Creature wrote: ↑Wed Oct 30, 2019 6:26 pm When will I be mislynched btw? I want to know when it's ready

why are you so concerned about being lynched today? just because you didn't vote on the wolf wagon?

Yeah creature stop whining and help us solve. Some of us still townread you but that could change if you don't participate in a helpful way.

Yep. I don't like the AtE pleas. And I don't like the scattered opinions that look more like a wolf trying to look busy, rather than a villager trying to helpfully game-solve.

Benson wrote: ↑Wed Oct 30, 2019 6:25 pm

Creature wrote: ↑Wed Oct 30, 2019 6:25 pm At least let me spam the shit out of this thread today

Why were you ITT but not posting at EoD?

[mention]Creature[/mention]

It's such a huge relief that I get to focus on a reasonable amount of players now.

nutella wrote: ↑Wed Oct 30, 2019 6:23 pm

Trustworthy Liberal wrote: ↑Wed Oct 30, 2019 6:20 pm

vanity. wrote: ↑Wed Oct 30, 2019 6:18 pm i understand those are a lot of drago voters but 7 of us are drago voters. unless we wanna trim down our pool by a lot, then i think we don't clear the drago voters from scrutiny

So only 3 Drago voters in the other group sure is a weird split also for people that have done this before are both halfs revealed after wards or forever hidden?

First of all how do you know there are two groups and not say three? Oddly there are 27 players alive and 11 in our group, so either way the groups are unevenly distributed.

Good catch.

I wonder if the wolves got any say in how the players were grouped?

Creature wrote: ↑Wed Oct 30, 2019 6:25 pm At least let me spam the shit out of this thread today

Why were you ITT but not posting at EoD?

The fact that TLib is interested in find the bussers on the wagon kinda looks good on him. If he were a wolf I think he'd want to soak up the credit for being on that wagon instead of insinuating there may have been bussing.

juliets wrote: ↑Wed Oct 30, 2019 6:20 pm

vanity. wrote: ↑Wed Oct 30, 2019 6:17 pm tlib
elephant
juliets
long con
dfaraday

this is the list of suspects i'm working within today. get crackalackin.

You think I'm a suspect? I took Drago to 5 votes from 4 where he was tied with others.

How inclined are you to bus your wolf-mates, in general?

vanity. wrote: ↑Wed Oct 30, 2019 6:13 pm i'm not going to be here for much longer but i'm willing to do a small amount of solving while i'm present

I'm curious about why you (and Nute) are leaning villager on Creature? I thought his absence at EoD looked horrible.

Whoa I just realized we're in a separate grouping. Spicy.

Elephant wrote: ↑Wed Oct 30, 2019 6:09 pm I still believe 112 was mafia as well.

Drago went after them very early in the game. Would he do that to a new teammate he's unfamiliar with?

Those kills are weird. So, are we to expect the wolves shot Texas and covered the kill with their Janitor? Obviously, Texas is worth examining.

As I'm writing this I may or may not be dead (Schrodinger joke here) but I'm fucking hyped about the state of things after that lynch. Like we got got got the Godfather on D1. There's no way the wolves didn't counter push that wagon so we have many juicy reads to be gleaned from that flip. Obviously, Nanook is not a wolf after that. 112 can be my best pal again. That entire wagon on Drago is almost green, I'm sure. And the CW's are probably riddled with wolves. Nova came out of that round looking like a wolf for the attempt to save Drago.

READS:

Strong town read

Nanook - Huge push against Drago. This doesn't happen if he's w/w.

112 - Spewed probable non-wolf by Drago: 112 also served as the CW that some wolves likely pushed to save Drago. 3P should remain a possibility, however.

Nutella - Involvement in Drago lynch is great.
The vote was fairly early on the wagon and a major contribution to the lynch. Her subsequent posts after the fact helped push the wagon along.

Town read/leans

Pawn - Big Drago vote.

vanity - Proponent and voter of the Drago wagon.

Juliets - Interactions with Drago suggest town. Her vote was fairly crucial in Drago's lynch and I don't see her as the type to bus like that.

Iaarf - Overall, had a villagery progression at EoD even though it did seem like he wanted 112 lynched over Drago, and almost made it happen.
Drago was hunting iaarf as a 3P candidate early on. This is typical wolf stuff when they no someone isn't a wolf, but may be 3P instead of a villager.

Hyena - I don't agree the wolf accusations. What I see is a villager with specific tactics to get reads and reactions that will help us.

Eva - I'm not sure where I stand on her. I was village reading her but after EoD she's lost some town equity. I'll have to re-evaluate.


PoE – towny

Master Radishes - He can have a little credit for switching to Drago, but he late on the wagon and MR is no enemy of bussing.

Long con - Idk, I just like him

Jack - I like Jack, but I want to call this TMI: viewtopic.php?f=260&t=1812&start=3350#p561129

Mac - He started the push for Epig at the same time the Drago wagon was taking off. It's concerning, however Nova tries to help Mac lynch Epi in a way I don't see w/w partners doing; and I'm already liking Nova as a wolf.

Spiny/boo - OK. He had some interactions with Drago that suggest they may not be w/w

TLib - He's saved by helping push Drago before it was a sure deal. If he's wolf, he could've just pushed 112 instead.

Epignosis

PoE - Null

Ladylambda
Quin
DFaraday
Rej
Dom
Michelle
sprityo

PoE - wolfy

Creature - I remember seeing his name at the bottom for most of EoD, but he wasn't posting as if he was a frozen wolf. Given the content I've seen from him, I don't see how he wouldn't be contributing at EoD, even if he wasn't caught up.

Elephant - Maybe I didn't find the mislynch seeds, but I'm still suspicious of him and his agenda. His EoD did nothing to elevate himself.


Wolf reads
Nova - Tried extensively to push away from the Drago lynch. Like his ISO is literally 50% defending Drago or trying to lynch a CW. Prime suspect today.

----------------------------


***After reading the kills****

Wtf, two of my wolf leans were killed. I'm not sure how that will affect the reads now.

If Drago flips wolf I'm treating myself to ice cream

Hyena wrote: ↑Tue Oct 29, 2019 5:58 pm

iaafr wrote: ↑Tue Oct 29, 2019 5:57 pm yea idk the dragomir wagon looks sketchier, so says my heart

Whaaaat? The dragomir wagon looks hype right now compared to the 112 wagon.

Yeah this

Please make sure it isn't close to a tie by EoD because there may be vote manipulators.

juliets wrote: ↑Tue Oct 29, 2019 5:51 pm

Benson wrote: ↑Tue Oct 29, 2019 5:47 pm Tony Stark hasn't been posting since he got here. Not a good look for someone on the block.

I may be turning around on my Juliet v lean. She isn't very involved right now

I'm here trying to keep up and catch up on what I missed.

Is there something you want me to comment on?

No, I just thought you have more generally thoguhts/takes as we progressed. It's no worry if you're still catching up.

CFD on Creature?

iaafr wrote: ↑Tue Oct 29, 2019 5:48 pm [VOTE: 112] aubergine

anime betrayal vote has arrived

"ive been betrayed many times but this time is the worst"

- 112, probably

112 disappeared too...

Tony Stark hasn't been posting since he got here. Not a good look for someone on the block.

I may be turning around on my Juliet v lean. She isn't very involved right now

iaafr wrote: ↑Tue Oct 29, 2019 5:38 pm

Benson wrote: ↑Tue Oct 29, 2019 5:37 pm

iaafr wrote: ↑Tue Oct 29, 2019 5:36 pm if im being honest 112 isnt ateing me hard enough

like her hearts not in it

when she was AtEing thesunfan in finale she was pretty ruthless man

She usually AtE's harder as a wolf

does that make her town in this game then...?

also in finale she was town and ate pretty hard

like "ive been betrayed many times but this time is the worst"

I don't know what it makes of this game tbh. But I know when 112 is scum they'll deliberately fill their posts with AtE to win you over. The AtE in the finale was probably genuine stuff.