The Syndicate

juliets wrote: ↑Fri Nov 01, 2019 1:33 pm
Benson wrote: ↑Fri Nov 01, 2019 1:24 pm I'm at the point where I have a good suspicion one of Elephant or Juliets is a wolf, but probably never together. This inference hinges on vanity being town, however
Then by all means vote for me. I am tired of this game. I have been called a bad player because I am methodical and meticulous, I have been called lazy after I worked my ass off on that vote analysis and put all my effort into responding to people. I have been compared to some cartoon character I don't even know. I spend all my free time on this game and am not enjoying it. Its like another job.

I can die and join the spectator chat and have fun with Ty4on and whoever else is there, maybe TSP and Texas. I can speculate and be myself, cautious and methodical.

Maybe you will learn something from my lynch. I am humor by the way, how ironic.

Whoa, it was just a suspicion Juliets! I don't think you're bad, lazy, or anything negative. You have put in substantial work, I see that.
Being productive doesn't preclude you being a wolf in my mind.

[VOTE: boo] aubergine

Hyena wrote: ↑Fri Nov 01, 2019 1:29 pm Okay, I've decided what I wanted to do with TLib. Sorry for doing this, TLib.
Trustworthy Liberal wrote: ↑Wed Oct 30, 2019 6:17 pm Also if i read that right Tony was just a Vanilla Towny (or the equivalent) please correct me if i am reading that wrong
I recall someone mentioning that scum gets fakeclaims to use. Is this correct? If so, this is the possible townslip/PR slip that I saw from TLib.

As per Drago's role card they do get safe claims. There's also a sample vanilla card in the OP.

That is possibly a telling comment for TLib to make, all things considered.

[mention]vanity.[/mention] how are you interpreting your wagon right now? Who do you think are the wolf pushers and the villager pushers?

I'm at the point where I have a good suspicion one of Elephant or Juliets is a wolf, but probably never together. This inference hinges on vanity being town, however

The vote from boo was not good. He seemed more annoyed at vanity's general approach, rather than thinking he's a wolf.

I still don't like vanity as a wagon today.

Ugh vanity, the only thing Im nervous about is how concerned you are about how "villagery" you've been. That just makes me suspect you're a wolf that thinks he played a clean game and deserves credit.

Now this is getting interesting

vanity. wrote: ↑Fri Nov 01, 2019 12:43 pm oh good dfaraday has made exactly 2 posts the whole game.

that's going to be a wonderful slot to solve.

I'm annoyed. 2 posts in like 6 days is simply unacceptable

juliets wrote: ↑Fri Nov 01, 2019 12:43 pm
vanity. wrote: ↑Fri Nov 01, 2019 12:38 pm also why is juliets blatantly plagiarizing from elephant's case?
Because Benson asked me what caused me to change my vote and the answer was some of the things in Elephants case. So I pointed out which things - I wasn't "plagiarizing" but I'm not surprised you used such an inflammatory word in connection with me. I guess I should have just said "Some of the things in Elephant's case"

The thing that I found concerning (and I assume vanity did too) was that you were just restating Elephant's observations. BUT those were the 'whats' regarding vanity; I want the 'Why'.

^ I *don't think

juliets wrote: ↑Fri Nov 01, 2019 12:33 pm
Benson wrote: ↑Fri Nov 01, 2019 12:12 pm @juliets I'm not seeing what you see that made you flip your vanity read. Can you help me out?

PS I can do some actual ISOing work once I get on my laptop.
Several points from Elephants iso including:

- vanity stalls any initiative to introduce structured conversation
- vanity's reads have very obvious strong player bias
- vanity announces intent to "kill Drago" at -1:45, his reason on the actual vote is "don't want epi lynched"
- Vanity tunnels Juliets from the star, never re-evaluates
- vanity establishes a D2 pool of suspects along his old, biased reads
- Subjectively, vanity does not feel like the town!vanity from wildcards 1 (a point I agreed with earlier)

Elephants comments inside the spoiler (I don't want to reproduce the entire spoiler but let me know if this confuses you)

- I find this notable, because Evenstar had stated that Pawn would usually be correct in his reads independent of his alignment. MIchelle's question was well justified. (this had to do with the associative reads business)

- vanity actively stalls on iaafr's initiative. (Iaafr's initiative was everyone post top town read)

- vanity stalls on MacDougall's initiative. (Macs grouping of players)

- vanity is not using teh groups for their intended purpose, and instead launches into a very different discussion that looks like it is engaging with teh groups, but is really just about wolf reads

There are several other things inside the spoiler but all these comments inside the spoiler relate to posts so it's hard to understand unless you look at them.

Are you convinced on Faraday at this point or looking at someone else you think is a better candidate than vanity?

The thing is I see only a couple of those things a maybe Wolfy; the rest being NAI. Which piece of evidence do you think is most damning to vanity and why?
FWIW, I didn't even *do* those initiatives and I'm town, so I think that should be necessarily wolfy.

I haven't established where I want to land today. I'm keeping my cards close for now but I should hopefully have some conclusions to make after reviewing ISOs again.

Elephant did inception in Juliets to make her think vanity is a wolf xD

I can see a world where hyena is a wolf and is TMI-townreading Trustworthy.

[mention]juliets[/mention] I'm not seeing what you see that made you flip your vanity read. Can you help me out?

PS I can do some actual ISOing work once I get on my laptop.

Tbh if someone quoted a bunch if my posts and simply said "fencesitting" I would not feel inclined to give a serious response.

When looking at Juliets' vote record, hyena doesn't look as good as I thought he did. He seemed to be switching to every wagon that wasn't Drago until the very last second.

Elephant, fwiw I actually did have a slight scum lean on vanity early in day 1. That evaporated as we move to EoD.

boo, thoughts on the case against TLip (forgive me if you addressed this). Or DFaraday's entrance into this round?

boo wrote: ↑Thu Oct 31, 2019 11:24 pm
Benson wrote: ↑Thu Oct 31, 2019 11:17 pm @boo do you have any thoughts on players in contention for today's lynch yet? Or still getting caught up?
I already voted for Hyena. At the moment, I'm satisfied leaving it there.

Is the main reason because he was driving for a tie?

As I've stated, I don't think what he was doing was open-wolfing by any stretch. I fully agree with Hyena's tactic of trying to have tied wagons close to EoD. I don't think anyone literally wanted a tie; we just wanted it to be close to potentially expose some wolves once we see how players flip.

Putting my tin-foil hat on and saying that if Elephant is indeed a wolf then he was definitely planting more seeds by trying to get us to doubt our villager reads on the "strong players".

juliets wrote: ↑Thu Oct 31, 2019 11:16 pm
Benson wrote: ↑Thu Oct 31, 2019 11:07 pm I suppose Creature's reluctance to appease me by actually casing Spiny makes him look more like a villager than anything else
I don't understand, you only asked for one quote and her ISO is only one page, lol. But I do think Creature is town, just for a different reason.

I'm suggesting that his apathy is villagery because he seems unconcerned with how it'll be perceived. I anticipate if he were a wolf he would try to appear helpful to avoid criticism.

[mention]boo[/mention] do you have any thoughts on players in contention for today's lynch yet? Or still getting caught up?

juliets wrote: ↑Thu Oct 31, 2019 11:15 pm Hey, am I crazy?! Why has TSP voted in our host area?

I think it's also for the dead peeps.

I suppose Creature's reluctance to appease me by actually casing Spiny makes him look more like a villager than anything else

juliets wrote: ↑Thu Oct 31, 2019 10:35 pm
Long Con wrote: ↑Thu Oct 31, 2019 10:30 pm Is this something you often do, juliets? You are really... busying yourself.
Once I did EOD and Hyena asked me for points where there was a tie I realized I needed to know what the totals were coming into EOD. So I just...got hooked and found the voting to be interesting. We caught Drago so I feel like the votes must tell us something. It's worth a try, not a lot going on in the thread.

I very much appreciate your work

Creature wrote: ↑Thu Oct 31, 2019 9:29 pm All I have rn is memoirs of seeing Spiny's posts while she was posting and thinking about them now they look actually scummy

Bring me one of these posts. Just one.

Long Con wrote: ↑Thu Oct 31, 2019 9:15 pm
Benson wrote: ↑Thu Oct 31, 2019 9:12 pm [VOTE: DFaraday] aubergine
I went to ISO DFaraday after those votes. Then I didn't know what to do with the rest of my minute.

I'm just glad he finally finished checking his role PM

[VOTE: DFaraday] aubergine

What is the bussing culture like on this forum? I know that's a weird question but I've noticed it can differ site to site. For example my home forum - CanucksCommunity - is VERY pro-bussing. Almost so much so that we always expect it. But conversely, MU had way more anti-bus folks in the games I played and it happened less often.

Long Con wrote: ↑Thu Oct 31, 2019 8:59 pm
juliets wrote: ↑Thu Oct 31, 2019 7:21 am @Long Con as it pertains to TL's reasons for voting Drago, I didn't see anything wrong with those reasons. Were your reasons better? What were they?
I generally suspected him more than 112. He was preoccupied with trying to shape a case around 112 saying he was going to roleplay, even though I don't think 112 ever really did it. His "mindmeld buddies" comment on the Mac TMI thing was cringey as well... what did I say before, like a slick salesman or something?

It was also easy to want to vote for him due to his crap with Evenstar, which I didn't like. I don't know if that was alignment-indicative, but it sure made the vote easier.

Oh I forgot it was you that pointed out how fake his "mindmeld buddy" post was. I thought that was Jack tbh. I'll give you some town points for that because up until then Drago wasn't really in the line of fire.

Hyena wrote: ↑Thu Oct 31, 2019 8:55 pm
Elephant wrote: ↑Thu Oct 31, 2019 3:59 pm
Hyena wrote: ↑Thu Oct 31, 2019 2:47 pm
boo wrote: ↑Wed Oct 30, 2019 7:08 pm My biggest suspect within our group is Hyena (and, happily enough, in general). The drive to force a tie (s)he, sorry, don't know most of you in this game yet engaged in struck me as wrong at the time, going so far as to ask me after I put the no lynch vote down to flip it to help cause a tie.
So, I gave an explanation earlier for why I was trying to tie the wagons as much as possible at EoD. I don't think we would've gathered much information if the wagons remained uneven before, like, the last moment. People were changing their votes between Dragomir and 112 until the very last moment, but there wouldn't have been a need to if one wagon remained greater than the other.
What exactly is the information we gathered, please?
Well, for one, Evenstar came back to the thread about 10 minutes before EoD (5:48pm specifically) after being gone for a couple hours, and she expressed over the top panic not only about the day almost being over, but also about Epi being wagoned. At that moment (you can double check using the vote info juliets posted this morning), Epi had four votes [iiafr, Mac, nova, and me]. Also at this moment, according to Juliet's timeline, 112 had four votes, too, before iaafr switched from Epi to 112 and putting 112 at 5 votes.

(Actually going back to look at it now, there had to be five votes before iaafr joined because 112 ended up with 7 votes, and only Nova and Eva joined and stayed on 112 after this time point. By the looks of it, these five people were [Creature, Tony, Elephant, Epi, and Jack]. This actually strengthens my case.)

Anyway, at that moment, the votes seemed to be 112 at 5 votes, Drago at 7 votes, and Epi at 4 votes. While you could believe that Eva genuinely came back at that moment and genuinely was frustrated with the Epi voters, she ended up not trying to go after the Epi voters. Instead, she ended up voting for 112 while also adding that she wasn't sure if Drago was scum or not. I have a suspicion that she returned that late in the day to try to bolster 112's wagon with her own vote to try to save 112. She placed her vote at 5:57pm, right near day end.

That was just ONE thing I noticed.

You mean Drago here, right? Or Epi?

Yeah, Eva definitely lost a lot of her town equity after that EoD performance.

juliets wrote: ↑Thu Oct 31, 2019 7:48 pm So you guys as I'm going through these votes I see people changing votes like every 5 to 10 minutes for a period of time. I don't understand what they are doing. They are not pressure votes because there's not time for the person they voted for to even see it. In some cases others vote right after them and then they change and the other(s) follow. It seems scummy to me but a lot of the people from MU and the champs spec chat are doing it so there's got to be some point here - what is it?

I personally like to do that because I think quickly building up wagons can often yield telling responses. In my experience villagers are much less tentative and will be able to vote at their pleasure without the extra burden of trying to satisfy their wolf-agenda. Having the wagons build up so fast applies pressure and makes it a lot harder on the wolves as they have to simultaneously evaluate where and when they should vote to a) avoid future suspicion, and b) prevent their teammates from dying.

Has anyone (mainly Nutella & Creature) fully substantiated what you don't like with Spiny. I struggle to find anything bad.

From Tlib: "Hyena if you remember i am very reluctent to vote every since it got me killed in my first forum game thats why am ready the Dragomir person first"

That's obviously an incredibly wolfy mindset to have - not voting for fear of looking bad. But it is TLib, and I trust he does actually get mislyched a lot.

^ Elephant, that is precisely my interpretation. It was likely a decision to vote Drago first, with the analysis coming post hoc.

Conversely, I can make a similar interpretation to Long Con's analysis of TLib (to a lesser degree). He is almost looking for any reason to call TLib wolfy, without looking for the reasons he *could* be town.

juliets wrote: ↑Thu Oct 31, 2019 3:49 pm I'm going to work on finding the points where there were ties in the vote records as Hyena requested. I'll check back here in case I get tagged.

You're doing yeoman's work, Juliets.

juliets wrote: ↑Thu Oct 31, 2019 3:29 pm @Benson fyi, the LOST website was the first website some of us old guard people played Mafia on. boo called me JC because I used to be Juliet's Coffee - JC - which had something to do with the show (LOST). There was also a Ben on LOST, he was a bad guy.

haha, thank you

juliets wrote: ↑Thu Oct 31, 2019 3:16 pm Something for everyone:

I seem to be off the mark on TL because unlike everyone else I don't see his case on Drago to be weak for a Day 1 case. Many of the rest of you voted Drago, what were your reasons?

He had a few wolfy posts I'm too lazy to pull up. In one he had this attitude about "catching" Mac in a TMI that seemed super fake. Also, when mac started getting votes he had the wolfiest pop-in to tell us he was working on a case against Mac.
Him not showing up on Tuesday what-so-ever meant he was worse than 112/tony/TL in my mind. And finally, I REALLY liked the people on the Drago wagon compared to the others.

boo wrote: ↑Thu Oct 31, 2019 2:59 pm
Benson wrote: ↑Wed Oct 30, 2019 7:11 pm I thought Hyena had legitimate reasons for driving a close lynch near EoD but I'll let him address that before I say anything.
Oh, it was Benson not LA or JC... dunno how I got that. I guess Ben is also Lost... let's go with that.

wat

Who is JC?

Trustworthy, when your wagon was at its height you expressed concern over how quickly it built up. I believe you were suggesting there was some nefarious intention behind it. Did you ever re-evaluate that wagon and consider whether or not it was being pushed by wolves?

Random thoughts concerning Juliets after a quick read through her ISO:

When I look at this I see multiple opportunities for Juliets to stick to wolf leans on either 112 or TSP as we progress through Tuesday. But instead she goes out of her way to undermine those reads as we moved closer to EoD. Like she could have kept her options open but instead made it clear she would rather stay away from lynching 112 or TSP - two of the other primary wagons before EoD.
We now know TSP was town, and for sake of this argument lets assume 112 is also town. Why would she do that as a wolf? She boxed herself into a position where she had to vote Drago, which unless was pre-planned at the start of Tuesday, I don't see as an optimal wolf strategy. Ofc, if 112 is also a wolf this entire read can be chucked out the window but I think the odds are with me here.
Thoughts?

Elephant wrote: ↑Thu Oct 31, 2019 12:56 pm
Benson wrote: ↑Thu Oct 31, 2019 11:33 am
Elephant wrote: ↑Thu Oct 31, 2019 2:45 am
vanity. wrote: ↑Wed Oct 30, 2019 6:17 pm tlib
elephant
juliets
long con
dfaraday

this is the list of suspects i'm working within today. get crackalackin.
With distance, sometimes issues appear more clearly than when they are close. We are left with eleven players in that part of the subconscious we are tasked to defend. Four of us have reached the wildcards or the finale: Spiny Creature/boo, Hyena, nutella, and vanity. They are all absent on vanity's list. Benson and Creature also do not appear on this list. It appears to me that vanity. has constructed his suspect pool largely along the lines of player ability, exempting the better players from suspicion, and going after what could be considered "low hanging fruit" in this game, with its overall high standard of players. vanity. , what was your intention behind creating this suspect list? To be quite overt about it, it does look like scum pushing mislynch bait. I am going to examine if other players here identify player quality with player alignment, but for now, I shall [VOTE: vanity.] aubergine.
If you want one more I've also reached the finale
I assume you played the finale in a previous reason, is that correct?

I was voted into the season 3 finale but ended up dropping out due to my schedule conflicting, sadly.

nutella wrote: ↑Thu Oct 31, 2019 12:55 pm
Benson wrote: ↑Thu Oct 31, 2019 12:19 pm I don't like picking on people while they try to get started but Faraday's entrance is so wolfy. I don't like the casual: "this wagon good; that wagon bad" thing, especially when he isn't caught up.
I don't see this at all. He doesn't say anything about wagons, he just says he has reason to townread creature and he like LC's case on TL.

I thought he was implying he didn't like Creature as a wagon but supported a TLib wagon based on Long Con's case. He didn't directly say that, but that was my take-away. I just get suspicious when people do that so early, especially when they aren't caught up with everything. It seems like posturing for a future vote on the TLib wagon.

Elephant, I trust you're also thinking TLib is mislynch bait here?

I don't like picking on people while they try to get started but Faraday's entrance is so wolfy. I don't like the casual: "this wagon good; that wagon bad" thing, especially when he isn't caught up.

nutella wrote: ↑Thu Oct 31, 2019 12:07 pm So btw I had a showerthought this morning that I want to share with the class. I know I said I don't much like nk analysis but I think the Texas kill could indicate either Eva w OR an attempt to frame Eva. This is because Tex was very good at catching wolf Eva in WC1 so Eva could be scared of them; Texas even brought this up in this game so if it's a frame it's not even limited to wc1 players or spectators (though statistically some of those are on the wolf team). I'm not sure how this can help us narrow it down but figured it was worth mentioning in case anyone else has thoughts.

Interesting. Texas even left their vote on Eva when that wagon died out, so they seemed pretty serious about that read.
I think they may have also thought Texas was the cop since they used the Janitor ability (I'm assuming they have a limited number of those to use). IIRC they had stong town reads on Mac, 112, iaarf, and me. But ofc, it could all be for the WIFOM.

Benson wrote: ↑Thu Oct 31, 2019 11:50 am @Elephant Regarding votes with vanity:
I think it was a combination of circumstance and agreeing with vanity's mindset, while also town reading him. Further, I'm the type of person that enjoys showing chaos near the deadline to potentially snuff out once we have flips. That's why I quickly moved to TSP when it became viable again. That wagon didn't go anywhere so we went back to Drago, which is ultimately where I wanted to end up I was also very comfortable at the type of people supporting the Drago wagon - most of whom I was town reading. (I was never voting 112 just because of our history).

Should read: snuff out *wolves

Creature wrote: ↑Thu Oct 31, 2019 6:54 am
Benson wrote: ↑Wed Oct 30, 2019 11:38 pm I'm not sure what to make of Creature acting so defeated already. I think it's genuine frustration, but I suppose that could still be frustration from being a caught wolf.
Posting a ton isn't acting defeated afai recall

After I voted you, you literally said something along the lines of: "why should I even try if I keep getting lynched". Idk how I'm supposed to read that any other way than you acting defeated for pity points.

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