The Syndicate

TripleHaven wrote: ↑Wed Jul 21, 2021 8:25 pm I think the soup that was posted was fake. I don't think scum would submit that many names knowing their guesses would be outted to the thread if they failed, and without proper claims at that. I do think mafia has a soup kill, but none of their attempts have been successful as no one has claimed to my knowledge.

I don't think my soft was like, that obvious, and most people probably didn't interpreted it as a soft. in fact idk if it counts as a soft really

Okay. Where are you at in terms of reads?

TripleHaven wrote: ↑Wed Jul 21, 2021 8:16 pm

Alison wrote: ↑Wed Jul 21, 2021 8:14 pm Martin's entrance is extremely weird and scummy and seemed to have an abnormal fixation on TH when doing so would not be natural at the point in the catchup they were supposedly at.

TH came back, said they wouldn't do what they did as town, and claims to be softing an ability (that is presumably alignment-indicative) but didn't get souped.

I want to kill both of these slots and think they can easily be partnered.

The soft wouldn't confirm me as town, but scum wouldn't do it.

Any thoughts on why you didn't get souped, if you softed? Do you think the soupkill is fake?

Martin's entrance is extremely weird and scummy and seemed to have an abnormal fixation on TH when doing so would not be natural at the point in the catchup they were supposedly at.

TH came back, said they wouldn't do what they did as town, and claims to be softing an ability (that is presumably alignment-indicative) but didn't get souped.

I want to kill both of these slots and think they can easily be partnered.

c4e5g3d5 wrote: ↑Wed Jul 21, 2021 7:54 pmLC's BK right

Lime Coke (not to be mixed up with Long Con) is the account of BlueKang (not to be mixed up with BoKnows).

c4e5g3d5 wrote: ↑Wed Jul 21, 2021 7:40 pm I'm mid Mac ISO

Mac buried hk D2 and he's alive and not a wagon

Someone tell me if there's a greencheck here or something

He was not alive, and then he came back to life.

This is not the Martin I'm used to. The town Martin has a good grasp of game theory, makes super linear plays and constantly overthinks and second questions himself even when he is sure. This Martin enters the game and immediately tunnels a flipped + resurrected town off one line of text.

MartinGG99 wrote: ↑Wed Jul 21, 2021 6:32 pm @TripleHaven why are you town

(Anyone else can answer this if they want to, but I would prefer hearing TH's response)

You've said you aren't caught up; what made TH stand out to you, when they haven't been a major factor in most of the threadplay?

MartinGG99 wrote: ↑Wed Jul 21, 2021 4:07 pm why is it that its Alison + Mac in there though

idk about all the other players but out of all the group of 4 players you could've probably put in there

that's odd imo unless its just coincidence and claims have flown about since then

This is an incredibly weird comment to make

What's so special about me and Mac being in this soup?

osieorb18 wrote: ↑Wed Jul 21, 2021 3:10 pm I think current wagons (TH/Listo) are W/W so I'm fine with either.

What makes you think Listo is a wolf?

A raw claim of "I flipped wrong" doesn't prove anything. Genuine town will claim they flipped wrong if they did flip wrong. Genuine mafia will lie about flipping wrong just to mess with town. If HK has a strong read on who in DVC was lying, we can listen to that. Absent that, the best way to proceed as I have mentioned is to build worlds where X is town, and then build worlds where X is mafia, and compare the worlds: is anyone scum regardless of the flip? Whose alignments are dependent on/chained to each other? Who has a difference check with someone else?

For a period of time I played exclusively flipless mafia: this is one of the strategies used to try to coherently gamesolve in the absence of flips. Since "I flipped wrong" doesn't tell us anything, we can almost treat slots like Michelle and Ender as being psuedo-flipless and try to suss out either their alignment or the alignment of those associated with them through worldbuilding.

hollowkatt wrote: ↑Wed Jul 21, 2021 2:16 pm

Alison wrote: ↑Wed Jul 21, 2021 2:07 pm MIchelle flipped a framer role so if you red checked TSP and he flipped town I'd lean towards assuming he was framed rather than some wild theory about being able to fake a green flip on a mafia who's daykilled.

what are the odds michelle and I both target TSP N1

Guillo wrote: x2 Killing Framer
The killing framer may at night target a player. The killing framer will kill one random person who targets that player with a night action on that same night (except for investigations), in addition to making your target immune to the person's actions that night. If targeted by investigation actions, your target will show as opposite alignment. If targeted by multiple people, no one dies.

Michelle would have targeted TSP to frame him yeah? Then I'd have to target TSP to investigate him as a wolf and the only reason I didn't die is b/c I investigated him instead of did something else.
Sure, not out of the realm of possibilities

I don't think it's that unlikely, TSP is exactly the kind of slot cops love to investigate N1.

[VOTE: TH] aubergine

Lime Coke is in a weird state for me. If Ender is scum then he's scumsided with his pushes pretty hard and I found his D1 posting to be pretty wolfy. To his credit is the fact that his interactions with honey looked T/T and kind of unnecessary for a mafia to fake (if he's scum and honey is town he'd get more mileage from letting me/Mac tunnel her and then turning the heat around on us when she flips town than by going for a level 1 white knight play). He was also one of the people included in the soupkill, and a genuine soupkill attempt on Lime Coke fits best in a scum Ender world rather than a town Ender one. The soupkill attempt is at least plausible - he did soft doc or some variant of protective role a couple of times and was visibly tilted when his pet townread and in-game best friend died at night. Adding everything up, probably leaning slightly more town than scum, but keep holding him accountable for his pushes.

I don't know what to make of Flea. Fae haven't really gotten into the meat of the interactions and pushes and had a weird reluctance to push Ender yesterday asking me if I was sure and stating that fae didn't want to commit to the vote (implied to be for some mech reason, like an ability that shorts out if they vote town or something). I think fae are still overall townie on play, especially on D2, and I am looking forward to seeing faer tryhard solving today.

MIchelle flipped a framer role so if you red checked TSP and he flipped town I'd lean towards assuming he was framed rather than some wild theory about being able to fake a green flip on a mafia who's daykilled.

lost monkey wrote: ↑Tue Jul 20, 2021 10:29 am

Scotty wrote: ↑Tue Jul 20, 2021 9:41 am

lost monkey wrote: ↑Tue Jul 20, 2021 9:34 am @hollowkatt @TonyStarkPrime If you have any important info please share it in a single post in your chat.

Huh? What chat

discord chats.

LoMo said this, clearly indicating that he had a medium-type ability, and was shot at night.

This strongly implies that at least one of the flips is fake and the mafia team did not want LoMo to reveal that dead people are claiming they flipped wrong.

It probably also makes the soup kill a little more likely to be real because if the soup kill was faked the mafia team could use their real soupkill on LoMo instead of wasting a nightkill on him. I'm not sure why LoMo was shot if the soup kill was real, given that it states they lost their factional ability - it's possible that they have extra KP, or some kind of conditional killing ability in that world.

This suggests that I should probably not be voting Scotty based of these worlds. TH/osie have scum equity regardless of flips and there is probably 1/2 mafia there. I think Nanook is actually really likely to be scum if Ender is town because as mafia, he loves sheeping townies with bad tunnels (see basic mafia) to allow town to self destruct.

I've thought about worldbuilding for Michelle but they don't seem drastically different. We've already done most of the legwork for scum Michelle worlds since we've been living in that world the whole game. For town Michelle worlds, I'm not sure who it would implicate or clear; town Michelle tends to get N1ed very often regardless of reads.

So worldbuilding:

If Ender is indeed scum, Creature is probably cleared, Mac is probably cleared, Scotty is cleared.

If Ender is town, Creature is most likely outed, Mac is not quite outed but goes down quite a bit, Scotty is outed.

Dolby is most likely town no matter what except in the exact scenario that he is scum with a daykill and Ender was framed. That is pretty unlikely so I'm just going to take Dolby as clear.

TH and osie have been largely ignored by the thread but there have been no good reasons to clear them. There is probably scum laying low here and coasting by. TH probably fits that behavioral pattern more than osie.

Creature/Mac/Scotty seem chained together in alignment because of Ender interactions. I don't think that all three or scum or even that two out of three are scum, except for the world of Creature/Scotty with town Ender. Unless we live in that world, I'd probably be happy to give all three a day pass.

Nanook looks good but not clearing-levels of good in scum Ender worlds, because in that world he sheeped two townies and voteparked on a mafia in a close EOD.

I'm voting you because I haven't fully made up my mind as to where I want to vote and I felt your existential crisis stuff about possibly faked flips in a game you know is bastard felt kinda performative.

[VOTE: Scotty] aubergine

Scotty: your push on listo has been at least partially based on Ender associations. How does the suggestion of Ender being town (which I know you've been publicly grappling with and taking seriously) affect your read on listo?

I think mafia kidnapped me because it doesn't make much sense for town to kidnap me there.

On the topic of possibly faked flips: could Gnome have been scum?

You can use sleuthing to figure out if someone flipped wrong or right - see my analysis of possible fakery in Michelle/Ender flips above.

You've suggested that Michelle being town would look bad for you, and that Michelle being scum would help clear you. But I don't remember you doing anything to elicit that kind of association. With Ender, yes, but not with Michelle.

Have you been anti-Michelle?

The correct play here is probably to build worlds where Michelle is town and worlds where Michelle is scum and try to figure out which is more likely and which names overlap between the worlds.

I don't think there's any evidence pointing towards Ender being town. For Ender to be town, either Dolby is scum with a daykill and a faked soup on himself, or Dolby was insanified and Ender was death-framed. Both possibilities seem unlikely.

Re: Michelle and Ender both claiming to be town, I'd assume anyone that flips mafia would claim that in DVC to confuse any townies who might be resurrected or communicate with living players.

I had a strong townread on Michelle D1: she was in her town meta, and her town meta is polarized. She also makes far more sense as the nightkill than Falcon. Conversely, the wolves submitting Bomb Maker on me suggests that they thought I blew up the person who visited LoMo, which means they probably knew a scum flipped that day. If the soupkill is faked, it's possible Michelle is town.

hollowkatt wrote: ↑Wed Jul 21, 2021 11:27 am

Alison wrote: ↑Wed Jul 21, 2021 11:25 am

Scotty wrote: ↑Wed Jul 21, 2021 11:12 am Why was lomo killed? That’s another odd choice with the falcon one.

Also if that were mafia kill, the soup kill attempt was bogus. I really don’t want it to be bogus and hope that the kill was someone else

That bit is weird. The announcement that mafia lost their NK came directly from the mod, so it can't have been faked by just submitting wrong roles on their own members. I considered the possibility of a mafia member who could alter mod posts, but that seems both overpowered and it's unclear to me why they would try to claim the nightkill was disabled and then use it immediately after.

I would not discount the possibility that the "soup kill" post was a faked modpost. that kind of role is 100% within guillos wheelhouse to create

If we can't trust flips and modposts then the game gets weird as fuck. If the soupkill was made to falsely clear someone I'd probably suspect Mac or Lime Coke.

Scotty wrote: ↑Wed Jul 21, 2021 11:12 am Why was lomo killed? That’s another odd choice with the falcon one.

Also if that were mafia kill, the soup kill attempt was bogus. I really don’t want it to be bogus and hope that the kill was someone else

That bit is weird. The announcement that mafia lost their NK came directly from the mod, so it can't have been faked by just submitting wrong roles on their own members. I considered the possibility of a mafia member who could alter mod posts, but that seems both overpowered and it's unclear to me why they would try to claim the nightkill was disabled and then use it immediately after.

Why are they teammates?

Lime Coke wrote: ↑Tue Jul 20, 2021 3:54 am So Ender decided to go after Creature and vote with Garden while she was his counter wagon.

I asked Ender why he was townreading her, he didn't answer me at all. I'm fine with leaving my vote on Garden Gnome for today.

I honestly wouldn't mind Scotty here either seeing that Honey, along with other dead towns iirc, had him as scum.

I'll have a look at Scotty/Ender interactions when I'm less tired but my initial impression is that they didn't look teamed

Both Ender and GG were working together to kill Creature which means Creature is probably spewed town. Ender flipping red makes the desperation soup theory a lot more likely. Scotty is probably not W/W with Ender, and I'm not sure why Mac is voting the way he is.

In fact the unorthodox guess of ascetic suggests that the wolves do "just know what he is".

EnderWiggin wrote: ↑Mon Jul 19, 2021 9:51 am Also wtf at that soup. If wolves gunned Mac don't they just know what he is????

Why are you assuming here that the soup failed because of Mac, as opposed to one of the other targets? The failure message simply states "one or more of the targets hasn't been matched to their role". Maybe they were right about Mac, and it's Lime Coke that isn't a doctor, or whatever.

If it was a desperation soup I would turbo Ender and Gnome back to back without hesitation.

Garden Gnome wrote: ↑Mon Jul 19, 2021 10:35 am Undecided.
I think that it would be too much of a scum power as, if anyone in that list is scum, that person would become impossible to catch. On the other hand, I re-read the game rules and didn't find anything about the mod publicly announcing that the soup kill is wrong or that there were consequences for the entire team for wrong guesses. You might want to read over the rules about the soup kill because I might have misunderstood it or misinterpreted it in some way.

The rules state that:

Mafia also has the soup kill, a mechanic that allows them to kill players by correctly guessing their role actions. Scum has to submit only 1 of a player's JOAT's abilities for the soup kill to work. This is a mechanic that punishes claiming, there is no info of how many soup kill shots scum got, it could be 1 or it could be infinite. The soup kill is absolute and inevitable if a role ability is submitted correctly.

This seems to intentionally leave out a lot of information about the soupkill, like how it works, the consequences for failing it, etc. "there is no info of how many soup kill shots scum got" seems to suggest that Guillo wants the specifics of how the soupkill works to be a mystery to town, presumably to avoid people trying to game it or find loopholes that allow them to claim their role while still being immune to soupkills.

I will say that announcing a failed soup and having your nightkill stripped away if you fail are both things I've seen in role madness games before (although never at the same time), as ways to make scum be absolutely sure that they're right about the role before submitting it, and also to encourage town to fakeclaim roles.

Lime Coke wrote: ↑Sun Jul 18, 2021 7:34 pm Sorry for the absence. I got a bit mad earlier and needed to step away and get through my work day without being tilted. Honey dying last night is one of the main reasons I'm starting to hate bastard games.

Lime Coke wrote: ↑Sun Jul 18, 2021 7:45 pm By the way I feel like the mafia most likely have a strongman because Honey was obvious town and should've been a doc target with Alison getting NK immunity, so either the protectives went completely stupid or mafia have a way of getting through the protection.

I could see mafia interpreting these posts as softing doctor.

Nothing in Mac's ISO suggests ascetic though. If that was a legitimate attempt to kill him my best guesses are either that they have a rolecop, or that the fake gun gave him the ascetic role (it is kind of negative utility since it stops all beneficial actions but allows kills to go through).

It could be a desperation soup. If both Ender and Gnome were mafia and under pressure they might have tried to gamble on a big soup kill that could end the game instantly. I pulled a similar stunt in Shadow Corridors where I felt like town had too much advantage so I combed through the thread for softclears and tried to Thanos snap the town out of existence.

Scotty wrote: ↑Mon Jul 19, 2021 10:30 am

Alison wrote: ↑Mon Jul 19, 2021 10:27 am I'm not a fan of the Creature wagon. I think there's much less reason to exe him than either Gnome or Ender and I'm a big anti-fan of how both Gnome and Ender piled onto it happily.

What’s your opinion of this chicken noodle soup with your name in it?

It's a weird soup and I'm considering the possibility that mafia intentionally souped their own member in order to trade tonight's NK for a fake clear. Hitting me as Bomb Giver makes sense if they had info about my action and if Michelle did try to kill LoMo. Dolby claimed lie detector in thread. Mac as ascetic is a completely random line unless they rolecopped him. I'm don't understand Lime Coke as doctor either.

Souping Mac as ascetic is super weird and I don't really get why.

Guillotine wrote: ↑Mon Jul 19, 2021 7:16 am

A Soup Kill Has Been Attempted!

The following soup kill has been submitted:

MacDougall - Ascetic
Dolby - Lie Detector
Lime Coke - Doctor
Alison - Bomb Giver

One or more of these players has been wrongly matched to their roles, as a result, the soup kill fails and the mafia team will lose their factional kill for tonight.

This spews LoMo as town. I believe the mafia were under the impression that I gave a bomb to LoMo which exploded when Michelle tried to kill him, leading to her death. I will not confirm or deny the details of my action in case they have another soup, but trying to soup me as specifically bomb giver suggests that Michelle did indeed die when she tried to kill LoMo.

I think Scotty has been townie today tbh. He has a lot of WIM and motivation to solve, and his thoughts are free flowing and make sense.

I'm not a fan of the Creature wagon. I think there's much less reason to exe him than either Gnome or Ender and I'm a big anti-fan of how both Gnome and Ender piled onto it happily.

listo95 wrote: ↑Sun Jul 18, 2021 8:43 pm

Alison wrote: ↑Sun Jul 18, 2021 8:40 pm

Scotty wrote: ↑Sun Jul 18, 2021 8:11 pm

Alison wrote: ↑Sun Jul 18, 2021 7:53 pm If listo was scum I'd expect his read on nanook to be TMI, not an attempt to misexe a townie. This is especially true given the self-deprecating "ah I'm really bad at giving logical reasons for my cases all I have is gut" which is very poor if you're trying to get other players to vote an innocent townie but very effective if you want to distance from your partner without risking real momentum against them. So if nanook is town then I think the chances of listo being town actually increase.

His reads early on melded with mine and is the main reason I was tRing him.

Simultaneously, I don’t town read him much for having a constant tunnel on nook. That’s pretty easy to fake as mafia.

I'm saying if nanook is town he is probably town, not that he is town for tunnelling nanook.

And I think a good question to ask in response to this here in a what if scenario. What if Nanook flips wolf? What does that do to your read of me?

If nanook is wolf I would kinda suspect you of being his partner because you seem very sure that nanook is wolf based on a gut read (= TMI) but have expressed your read in a way that (self-admittedly) makes it hard to get other people on board (= distancing from a partner you don't actually want dead).

I am mostly town leaning you now and believe in a T/T world way more than that world though.

That said listo's refusal to sheep me and Mac's meta on nanook is probably townie in general because it reflects genuine conviction on his nanook read. If he is scum with nanook as his buddy now is the perfect chance to turn around on him without looking suspicious. Conversely if he is scum with nanook as a townie he is trying to kill then I think he would go after easier targets than someone who is being meta-townread by two loud players. I think his push on nanook comes from a genuine read.

Scotty wrote: ↑Sun Jul 18, 2021 8:11 pm

Alison wrote: ↑Sun Jul 18, 2021 7:53 pm If listo was scum I'd expect his read on nanook to be TMI, not an attempt to misexe a townie. This is especially true given the self-deprecating "ah I'm really bad at giving logical reasons for my cases all I have is gut" which is very poor if you're trying to get other players to vote an innocent townie but very effective if you want to distance from your partner without risking real momentum against them. So if nanook is town then I think the chances of listo being town actually increase.

His reads early on melded with mine and is the main reason I was tRing him.

Simultaneously, I don’t town read him much for having a constant tunnel on nook. That’s pretty easy to fake as mafia.

I'm saying if nanook is town he is probably town, not that he is town for tunnelling nanook.

listo95 wrote: ↑Sun Jul 18, 2021 8:10 pm

Alison wrote: ↑Sun Jul 18, 2021 7:53 pm If listo was scum I'd expect his read on nanook to be TMI, not an attempt to misexe a townie. This is especially true given the self-deprecating "ah I'm really bad at giving logical reasons for my cases all I have is gut" which is very poor if you're trying to get other players to vote an innocent townie but very effective if you want to distance from your partner without risking real momentum against them. So if nanook is town then I think the chances of listo being town actually increase.

Okay so let me get this right. His town meta is to pretty much do nothing and just sheep a strong voice? Where I come from that is literally wolf play. If I'm misunderstanding what you say his meta is then I'm sorry. Also let me just explain my unable to give reasons for cases. It is more being unable to find reasons more being unable to articulate why someone has been wolfy.

Genuinely I feel like he has done almost nothing this entire game except sheep voices and give that confusing start to D2 with Michelle.

Both his scum and town meta involve doing very little and sheeping a strong voice. That is just the way nanook plays, he likes to pick someone who he thinks has good reads and follow them. When he is scum he will select a loud but wrong townie to sheep and allow them to self destruct (in fact he just finished a scum game where he did this to great success), and when he is town he will try to identify people with a high percentage chance of being town and good reads early and just follow them for the rest of the game. In this case I am leaning more towards the town side of that equation because the people he has chosen to attach his banner to are me and Mac, and I don't think we get kidnapped/time looped if we are leading town down the wrong path.

Scotty wrote: ↑Sun Jul 18, 2021 8:08 pm

Alison wrote: ↑Sun Jul 18, 2021 7:50 pm What's with your Creature town lean? I had him as town early on for bellyaching about the soup kill but he has contributed next to nothing since then and Mac calling him out was one of the last few posts he made before he got silenced so that read has withered.

His apathy just came off as town to me. But I can see it either way. He’s a slanker and can get shot down the line if it comes to it. Would like to see more contributions

He used to have a meta of posting like five words a day when he's scum so I'm not going to clear him for apathy.

If listo was scum I'd expect his read on nanook to be TMI, not an attempt to misexe a townie. This is especially true given the self-deprecating "ah I'm really bad at giving logical reasons for my cases all I have is gut" which is very poor if you're trying to get other players to vote an innocent townie but very effective if you want to distance from your partner without risking real momentum against them. So if nanook is town then I think the chances of listo being town actually increase.