The Syndicate

Urist wrote: ↑Mon Jul 20, 2020 9:45 am

Urist wrote: ↑Mon Jul 20, 2020 9:34 am (M+7 was on both wagons, but joined Lav early so doesn't really count).

This should say "joined Lav late".

And yeah we could be making it more difficult than it actually is. If we take our tinfoil hats off for a second, we can double down on our d1 towncore, which was Carot, Dizzy, myself and MP7. That'd leave Michelle, 1612, and speedchuck. Which doesn't seem so crazy to me.

I don't know when you were in the D1 towncore. You were nearly executed and the only person who expressed strong trust in you was I think nanook. I think you are the Godfather and I really dislike your pushes this phase.

Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Mon Jul 20, 2020 9:32 am @Alison Let me see if I can gather my thoughts. Speed, Urist and MP wanted to yeet 1612 over Lavender. If 1612 is town this doesn't mean much. If 1612 is scum however, it's either a bus or scum team is 1612/Michelle/Cobbtedcarot, which is entirely possible. I think that if 1612 is scum, Michelle is scum too, cause why would he put so much energy into defending Lavender as town between the two? Doesn't make sense if they were both town and he is scum. It's either TMI or just an actual read. I'm trying to imagine a world where Michelle is town. Then that would make either Urist or MP, or even both scum. I don't believe in that. And it also would be shit luck to have Urist as godfather here. Michelle/1612/X is probably still the most likely world here to me. Does this track?

I think I've mentioned before that speed could have been putting a vote on 1612 without it being a bus. At the time the vote happened, it looked unlikely for 1612 to be an execute consideration and they didn't push it very hard.

I think the team is Michelle/speed/Urist.

Urist wrote: ↑Sun Jul 19, 2020 10:16 pm And if 1612 is scum as well?

Then it doesn't change anything. At the time they sat their vote on 1612, it did not look like 1612 had a strong chance of being executed. They didn't post anything after that, so they probably were away and didn't see the wagon forming on 1612. They could easily have parked a vote on 1612 - regardless of his alignment - to dodge having to choose between Lavender and Michelle, confident that it won't go anywhere.

Urist wrote: ↑Sun Jul 19, 2020 10:09 pm

Alison wrote: ↑Sun Jul 19, 2020 9:56 pm I do have a very real suspicion that speed was on a vanity wagon because they didn't want to push their buddy but didn't want to be caught on the Lavender wagon.

If your theory is making the assumptions that 1612 is town and Michelle is scum, the theory is useless because you've already solved the game with the assumptions. :P

No, even if the assumptions are true, I still have to solve the rest of the scum team. Also, the only assumption required to get to "speedraldo is scum" is "Michelle is scum".

I do have a very real suspicion that speed was on a vanity wagon because they didn't want to push their buddy but didn't want to be caught on the Lavender wagon.

Urist wrote: ↑Sun Jul 19, 2020 8:27 pm I'm just... not going to post tonight. We should have banished 1612 today. That's it.

Why aren't you going to post tonight? It's not like you're waiting on the info borne from the NK - we know it's going to be me. If you're town, I suggest you help solve the game and persuade people as to why your scumreads are correct, rather than intentionally refusing to contribute.

Given that the mafia can quickhammer if someone votes wrong, I will ask that instead of voting in the poll, someone take up the role of recording votes, and at the EOD, everyone agrees to vote that person.

Urist wrote: ↑Sun Jul 19, 2020 7:43 pm

Alison wrote: ↑Sun Jul 19, 2020 7:23 pm If Lavender was town, I'd expect mafia to be pretty comfy during the EOD. So I think this looks good for 1612 actually - he doesn't even have to post during EOD, he could easily have rested on his laurels, come in the next day and collected his towncred for being right about Lavender the next day. The frantic posting from him doesn't look like mafia watching a town get hammered before their eyes. It could be self-pres, but even so, the frustration when it became clear we were going to execute Lavender looks good.

Players who this implicates: speed, ted, Urist. All of them had a laidback attitude throughout the previous day, although replacements might have affected this (it really was a bad time to have replacements, honestly).

1612 was tied with Lavender. The only reason he'd have to be relaxed is if his scum buddies were *not* on Lavender.

Fair point, but 1612 was freaking out even when it looked like it was going to be Lavender or Michelle. This means that in a world where 1612 is somehow scum, their scum buddy would have to be Michelle. And if Michelle is scum here, speedraldo is also scum for the stated reasoning - so it is still correct to go Michelle -> speedraldo. The emotion felt real to me though - I do think 1612 was town who just had a really strong meta read on someone they knew. It didn't feel like a white knight.

M Plus 7 wrote: ↑Sun Jul 19, 2020 7:33 pm

Alison wrote: ↑Sun Jul 19, 2020 7:23 pm If Lavender was town, I'd expect mafia to be pretty comfy during the EOD. So I think this looks good for 1612 actually - he doesn't even have to post during EOD, he could easily have rested on his laurels, come in the next day and collected his towncred for being right about Lavender the next day. The frantic posting from him doesn't look like mafia watching a town get hammered before their eyes. It could be self-pres, but even so, the frustration when it became clear we were going to execute Lavender looks good.

Players who this implicates: speed, ted, Urist. All of them had a laidback attitude throughout the previous day, although replacements might have affected this (it really was a bad time to have replacements, honestly).

This is probably true, and it almost certainly means Michelle is wolf here from a gamestate perspective, right?

I think Michelle is probably wolf given this flip, and frankly, I don't have the space to explore worlds where she isn't. Without a cop, the only ways we can really confirm alignment are if someone spews an alignment really obviously (like proto did EOD1) or by executing someone. Since we cannot afford to get a single misexecute for the rest of the game, I think my best chance of winning is to press forward with the idea that she is scum and play to my outs. Yes, if she is town we lose instantly, but we don't have any other option than to take a risk - safe play isn't going to cut it here, since we need to be right three times in a row.

M Plus 7 wrote: ↑Sun Jul 19, 2020 7:24 pm Sigh. I'll be back later too. We still can win this, but also I need more emotional energy.

I don't. Take your time and come back with a clear head, and I'll do my best to contribute as much as possible before I die. I don't really regret the execute - if it turns out I was hopelessly off-base postgame, then I will, but as things stand, it did sort a bunch of people for me (1612/Michelle/speedraldo) and that was one of the goals I meant to accomplish with Lavender's execute, as I indicated earlier. It's unfortunate he isn't scum, but unfortunate things are a part of life. It is better to think about how to most optimally play situation you're in right now and maximize winrate from here than dwell on what could have been.

Alison wrote: ↑Sun Jul 19, 2020 7:32 pm I think MP7 and Dizzy are scum

Are town, rather.

Let's operate on the assumption that Michelle is scum.

If my point about 1612's emotion during EoD is true, that would indicate that he is not her mafia buddy.

I think MP7 and Dizzy are scum, and the game is narrow enough that I don't have the space to pursue tinfoil reads. So I will simply have to bet the game on the fact that they are town. Therefore, the POE pool is reduced to [speedraldo, cobblertenoid, Urist].

Of these, I am most confident in speedraldo being scum. Their vote on 1612 looks fishy if we walk into it with the idea that 1612 is town and Michelle is scum - it could be a chainsaw defense there. Furthermore, leaving a vote on 1612 near EOD and disappearing from the thread after being explicitly told to consolidate is very bad. It looks like speedraldo didn't want to vote his scum buddy (at the time Michelle was a very possible execute) but also didn't want to get caught on the Lavender wagon.

That leaves cobblertenoid or Urist as the last possible member of the scum team.

If Lavender was town, I'd expect mafia to be pretty comfy during the EOD. So I think this looks good for 1612 actually - he doesn't even have to post during EOD, he could easily have rested on his laurels, come in the next day and collected his towncred for being right about Lavender the next day. The frantic posting from him doesn't look like mafia watching a town get hammered before their eyes. It could be self-pres, but even so, the frustration when it became clear we were going to execute Lavender looks good.

Players who this implicates: speed, ted, Urist. All of them had a laidback attitude throughout the previous day, although replacements might have affected this (it really was a bad time to have replacements, honestly).

This filp probably implicates Michelle the most. I'll look at teams involving Michelle during this night phase, before I die. I think she's probably the best execute tomorrow.

M Plus 7 wrote: ↑Sun Jul 19, 2020 6:51 pm Alison, I assume you won't budge so it'll almost certainly have to be me, yeah?

I won't budge. I don't move votes around close to EOD unless I have a very compelling reason, and I'm not seeing it.

M Plus 7 wrote: ↑Sun Jul 19, 2020 6:48 pm 1612 is pushing Cobbler and jeraldo though.

Hmm.

This is some pretty elaborate theater if it's 1612/Lavender/Michelle.

M Plus 7 wrote: ↑Sun Jul 19, 2020 6:46 pm No, see, I disagree with that so bolded/underlined sentiment vehemently, and in fact I couldn't disagree more, but that's what makes playing so much fun -- different perspectives.

Maybe I should post that in the "most unpopular opinions about mafia" thread on MU. In any case, I acknowledge it's not how most people like to play and I don't seek to deny them their fun - which is why I don't try to excise the emotion from the game. I prefer to use it to my advantage instead. I am just pointing out that is the world in which I'd enjoy mafia the most.

Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Sun Jul 19, 2020 6:42 pm

Alison wrote: ↑Sun Jul 19, 2020 6:40 pm

Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Sun Jul 19, 2020 6:38 pm Imagine Lav/1612/Michelle, is that possible?

I don't think so. What wolf team comes into the game with 4 town flips, one of which was a modkill that was very bad for town, and two replacements, and goes "hm, I think we should start bussing each other"?

A lot of the players are not pushable. Tutu cleared you and herself, semi-cleared Urist. They can't push me without looking bad and lol I'd like to see them try. What else are they going to do?

Push jeraldo, push cobbler, shoot the towncore. Maybe push Urist to set him up for a fall in FX. It's what I'd do.

M Plus 7 wrote: ↑Sun Jul 19, 2020 6:41 pm

1612 wrote: ↑Sun Jul 19, 2020 6:40 pm Sorry about if I am making the game unenjoyable for you guys, just trying my best to defend here. You're right, I'll try not to say those types of words in my future games here/mafia.gg in general

Not at all, you're fine. I understand the frustration regardless of alignment. Alison is allergic to emotion, hehe.

I'm not allergic to emotion. In an ideal world mafia would be played solely without emotion, but we do not live in an ideal world, and it is even more irrational to pretend emotion doesn't exist and to not use it to help you get better reads. I often use emotion to read people even if I don't have much myself. I am just saying that it is incorrect to express this particular kind of emotion regardless of alignment, and that it negatively affects town members.

Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Sun Jul 19, 2020 6:38 pm Imagine Lav/1612/Michelle, is that possible?

I don't think so. What wolf team comes into the game with 4 town flips, one of which was a modkill that was very bad for town, and two replacements, and goes "hm, I think we should start bussing each other"?

M Plus 7 wrote: ↑Sun Jul 19, 2020 6:35 pm

Alison wrote: ↑Sun Jul 19, 2020 6:35 pm Please stop with the "you are in for a rough F7 if you do this" stuff. I don't know why people do stuff like this. It doesn't convince anyone, it attracts scumread on you (which is bad regardless of your alignment here), and it annoys people who are just trying to play the game the best they can.

He's probably just a wolf, it's okay. I increasingly think it's faked emotion.

If 1612 is a wolf then the intensity of this emotion makes me think it's a last ditch effort at saving his scum buddy. And if 1612 is not a wolf then obviously I do not want to vote him. So I'm comfortable with a Lavender vote here.

No townie here wants to choose wrongly. Every single one of us is trying to avoid having to walk into F7 tomorrow, and every single one of us is aware that whatever execution we end up choosing, there is a probability that it leads us to F7. There is no purpose to saying "you will end up in F7 if you do this" except to make us feel guilty or paranoid, neither of which are things we should be feeling at this stage in the game.

Please stop with the "you are in for a rough F7 if you do this" stuff. I don't know why people do stuff like this. It doesn't convince anyone, it attracts scumread on you (which is bad regardless of your alignment here), and it annoys people who are just trying to play the game the best they can.

Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Sun Jul 19, 2020 6:26 pm

M Plus 7 wrote: ↑Sun Jul 19, 2020 6:24 pm I need to re-consider the 1612 and Lavender both being town world though. That means...

X/speed/Michelle? where X is most likely Cobbler but could be Urist or Dizzy?

Ugh.

Yeah, if Lav and 1612 are actually both town I hate this game. Actually I think Urist has been pretty underwhelming for being copped town.

Yes, he has, but game theory binds my hands. I can't touch him unless the possibility that he's specifically Godfather outweighs the possibility that any other person is mafia in general, and I am also willing to throw away a possible clear on him if we execute the Godfather. Even if he is underwhelming, it is not correct to execute him yet.

Alison wrote: ↑Sun Jul 19, 2020 6:23 pm

1612 wrote: ↑Sun Jul 19, 2020 6:22 pm

Alison wrote: ↑Sun Jul 19, 2020 6:21 pm

1612 wrote: ↑Sun Jul 19, 2020 6:20 pm I might be tunneled with Lavendar town and Michelle tunneling him as townas well, but I jsut ahd to give my two cents with Alison and Michelle not reading his legacy info at all and how town it was. Like Alison did you still not read the long paragraph he gave? I don't understand, i really dont

I read the paragraph. I'm not convinced it makes him town. Do you have an argument why it's townie?

I would be going into OGI personal reads that you asked me not go into...?

Talking about meta is okay.

But also if your read on Lavender involves meta stuff, why would you expect me to understand that it's townie?

1612 wrote: ↑Sun Jul 19, 2020 6:23 pm

Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Sun Jul 19, 2020 6:22 pm @Urist @speedchuck @tedxtr Are you guys here?

I'll move to 1612 in the end if nobody wants to move to Lav.

Lav/1612 not self pressing is weird.

What is self pressing?

If it comes down to you or Lavender, who will you choose?

M Plus 7 wrote: ↑Sun Jul 19, 2020 6:23 pm 1612's emotion is pretty good if he's faking it. I'm still not sure though. I still think there's agenda there.

I do think Lavender's moves make practically no sense and they could also just be trapped and/or desperate wolf, but I'm a bit more anxious about Lavender flipping town than I am 1612. It's alright though. I think either of them is at least an okay yeet today.

Not sure what to do with jeraldo/speed, but.

We'll deal with speedraldo tomorrow. Or rather, you will deal with speedraldo tomorrow, since I will killed during the night.

1612 wrote: ↑Sun Jul 19, 2020 6:22 pm

Alison wrote: ↑Sun Jul 19, 2020 6:21 pm

1612 wrote: ↑Sun Jul 19, 2020 6:20 pm I might be tunneled with Lavendar town and Michelle tunneling him as townas well, but I jsut ahd to give my two cents with Alison and Michelle not reading his legacy info at all and how town it was. Like Alison did you still not read the long paragraph he gave? I don't understand, i really dont

I read the paragraph. I'm not convinced it makes him town. Do you have an argument why it's townie?

I would be going into OGI personal reads that you asked me not go into...?

Talking about meta is okay.

1612 wrote: ↑Sun Jul 19, 2020 6:20 pm I might be tunneled with Lavendar town and Michelle tunneling him as townas well, but I jsut ahd to give my two cents with Alison and Michelle not reading his legacy info at all and how town it was. Like Alison did you still not read the long paragraph he gave? I don't understand, i really dont

I read the paragraph. I'm not convinced it makes him town. Do you have an argument why it's townie?

Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Sun Jul 19, 2020 6:17 pm

Alison wrote: ↑Sun Jul 19, 2020 6:16 pm1612 will probably self-pres. So it's really 4-3.

Well he though, after being so adamant to town read Lav? If s/v then I guess

It doesn't matter how strong his townread is. His townread on himself will be stronger.

Anyway, AtE annoys me greatly but I'm a pragmatic enough player to use things that annoy me to to win games. The frustration feels real and I'm voting Lavender. I think 1612 is town who's wrong.

1612 wrote: ↑Sun Jul 19, 2020 6:17 pm

Alison wrote: ↑Sun Jul 19, 2020 6:14 pm

1612 wrote: ↑Sun Jul 19, 2020 6:12 pm

Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Sun Jul 19, 2020 6:10 pm Yeah, it does feel like 1612 kind of just decided to read Lavender town and Michelle scum. Whether it's cause of distancing Michelle or hard defending Lavender, I don't know. Maybe the former actually.

I really don't get how you guys are seeing this world. IF i was teamed with michelle, it would be in my best interest to push lavendar and sheep Alison's vote. But again, DID NOT SEE THE LOGIC

If you were teamed with Michelle, it would be in your best interest to say you hate Michelle, but in reality vote with me. Which is what you did.

I would be VERY happy if you decided to swap to Michelle, and that was my suggestion for the entirety of day 3 after you guys started to tunnel lavendar. I DONT want lavendar to be the vote

Yes, I understand that. We're saying that if you're scum teamed with Michelle it would make sense for you to make a fake push on her.

Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Sun Jul 19, 2020 6:12 pm [VOTE: Lavender] aubergine

3-3 wagons. The excite.

1612 will probably self-pres. So it's really 4-3.

1612 wrote: ↑Sun Jul 19, 2020 6:12 pm

Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Sun Jul 19, 2020 6:10 pm Yeah, it does feel like 1612 kind of just decided to read Lavender town and Michelle scum. Whether it's cause of distancing Michelle or hard defending Lavender, I don't know. Maybe the former actually.

I really don't get how you guys are seeing this world. IF i was teamed with michelle, it would be in my best interest to push lavendar and sheep Alison's vote. But again, DID NOT SEE THE LOGIC

If you were teamed with Michelle, it would be in your best interest to say you hate Michelle, but in reality vote with me. Which is what you did.

Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Sun Jul 19, 2020 6:10 pm Yeah, it does feel like 1612 kind of just decided to read Lavender town and Michelle scum. Whether it's cause of distancing Michelle or hard defending Lavender, I don't know. Maybe the former actually.

There are worlds where 1612 is just town who's super locked into a certain read. It would expain the flailing as well as the confidence.

@Dizzy - GTH, I would still execute Lavender. I don't really like 1612's flailing at EOD, nor do I like his certainty about the scum team in a murky gamestate. I still think Lavender has more scum equity, produces more information, and I can see worlds where 1612 does this as town.

M Plus 7 wrote: ↑Sun Jul 19, 2020 6:05 pm

Alison wrote: ↑Sun Jul 19, 2020 6:03 pm

Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Sun Jul 19, 2020 5:57 pm I mean, these are the three wagons I'm most comfortable with, but I'm still stressed, cause we can't have a misyeet

Stress leads to bad decisions. Also remember that this game is played for no stakes. Just calmly look at the evidence in front of you and select the player with the highest probability of being mafia. Keep cool and you'll do fine - your reads are good.

Let's play again after this sometime.

Sure thing.

1612 wrote: ↑Sun Jul 19, 2020 6:00 pm

M Plus 7 wrote: ↑Sun Jul 19, 2020 5:55 pm I actually think 1612 and Michelle teamed together could make a lot of sense despite 1612's push there.

if i was a scum team with michelle i would hard push lavendar since Alison was already tunneled. i don't understand how you think I am distancing here. It's just michelle IN MY HONEST OPINION take it or leave it

You are voting Lavender. It costs you nothing to distance Michelle a little.

Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Sun Jul 19, 2020 5:57 pm I mean, these are the three wagons I'm most comfortable with, but I'm still stressed, cause we can't have a misyeet

Stress leads to bad decisions. Also remember that this game is played for no stakes. Just calmly look at the evidence in front of you and select the player with the highest probability of being mafia. Keep cool and you'll do fine - your reads are good.

M Plus 7 wrote: ↑Sun Jul 19, 2020 5:55 pm I actually think 1612 and Michelle teamed together could make a lot of sense despite 1612's push there.

Urist and I also believe this is possible.

Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Sun Jul 19, 2020 5:53 pm I'll feel bad if 1612 is town here ngl
But any town misyeet would suck the worst. I just want that red flip to blow the game open

Please temper your expectations. Most red flips won't blow the game open - the waters are too murky here. It is almost certain that several townies are extremely wrong about the gamestate.

Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Sun Jul 19, 2020 5:50 pm

1612 wrote: ↑Sun Jul 19, 2020 5:49 pm Well this sucks, my town read just left the game because he was being tunneled and no one but me actually listened to him and read his logs so he can't even push michelle with me. i feel so alone LOL

Does s/s literally say this? Lol

Good point.

Maybe it's 1612/Michelle/?

1612 wrote: ↑Sun Jul 19, 2020 5:49 pm Well this sucks, my town read just left the game because he was being tunneled and no one but me actually listened to him and read his logs so he can't even push michelle with me. i feel so alone LOL

If you are town I will ask you not to use AtE with me.

M Plus 7 wrote: ↑Sun Jul 19, 2020 5:49 pm

Alison wrote: ↑Sun Jul 19, 2020 5:46 pm

Alison wrote: ↑Sun Jul 19, 2020 5:45 pm

M Plus 7 wrote: ↑Sun Jul 19, 2020 5:42 pm 1612, I think the fact that you have only one scum team possibility actually makes you very NOT town.

This is accurate actually.

Like if I was town 1612 here, how the heck am I this confident as to what the gamesolve is?

I may read Michelle scum and I may even think Lavender is town based on the Michelle thunderdome, but how the heck am I that certain on Urist?

I've even been not actively considering Dizzy or Urist, and well, *gestures at my posts*.

Yeah, I'm not one hundred percent on Lavender too even though I'm confident Lavender/Michelle is V/W. And I've put you, Dizzy and Urist out of my mind. This confidence is baffling to me, because there's no smoking gun that a townie would conceivably have to be super certain what the team is at this point.

1612 wrote: ↑Sun Jul 19, 2020 5:48 pm

Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Sun Jul 19, 2020 5:46 pm

1612 wrote: ↑Sun Jul 19, 2020 5:45 pmBecause my flip gives no information and you are suggesting that we use our one misbanish on me instead. Please reconsider

Why would your flip give no information?

You would still be stuck on the Michelle and Lavendar and have no info between them which I think you would end up voting wrong in a final 7 situation and losing. like what, i really dont get it. am i crazy??

Didn't you go to great lengths to establish an anti-Michelle legacy? And emphasize how you can read Lavender really well because you have meta with him? If you were flipping town what makes you think we would vote wrong in that scenario?

This 1612 EOD has been really bad. I may have to violate my anti-flash-wagon rule.

(Well, technically, my rule is "no flash wagoning one hour before deadline", but I still have twelve minutes before I cross that boundary...)

Alison wrote: ↑Sun Jul 19, 2020 5:45 pm

M Plus 7 wrote: ↑Sun Jul 19, 2020 5:42 pm 1612, I think the fact that you have only one scum team possibility actually makes you very NOT town.

This is accurate actually.

Like if I was town 1612 here, how the heck am I this confident as to what the gamesolve is?

I may read Michelle scum and I may even think Lavender is town based on the Michelle thunderdome, but how the heck am I that certain on Urist?

M Plus 7 wrote: ↑Sun Jul 19, 2020 5:42 pm 1612, I think the fact that you have only one scum team possibility actually makes you very NOT town.

This is accurate actually.

M Plus 7 wrote: ↑Sun Jul 19, 2020 5:40 pm

M Plus 7 wrote: ↑Sun Jul 19, 2020 5:39 pm

M Plus 7 wrote: ↑Sun Jul 19, 2020 5:39 pm Which of these is the most and least likely?

1. Town 1612 adamantly believes that Lavender is town, and Lavender is town

2. Town 1612 adamantly believes that Lavender is town, and Lavender is wolf

3. Wolf 1612 is TMIing town Lavender

4. Wolf 1612 is hard defending his wolf mate Lavender

For me, 4 and 3 are most believable, although 1 is possible I guess. 2 I have no idea.

From a gamestate perspective, I actually am now thinking 1612 has a higher chance of flipping wolf than Lavender does.

The thought has crossed my mind too and this reasoning isn't that inaccurate. I think reads factor into the equation too though, and Lavender does give more information on his flip.