The Syndicate

staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Mon Jan 18, 2021 11:34 pm
NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Mon Jan 18, 2021 11:30 pm
nutella wrote: ↑Mon Jan 18, 2021 11:29 pm
NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Mon Jan 18, 2021 11:22 pm It’s Nutella and dk

Both lock town
Cool I agree
Can you imagine for a minute

If Mac and jay and spf are also town

How cool would that be

The universe isn’t usually that kind tho
mafia should prolly just concede if that's the case

blocks three nightkills, nails the exact entire scumteam on d3, and predicts the outcome on d1. what a god

staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Tue Jan 26, 2021 11:14 pm alison/doom/koba/esooa/grogu/jagged/nanook/nutella/tutuu

i feel comfortable removing nanook and DOOM from that pool right now, pending re-evaluation on LYLO. it feels weird to remove DOOM from that pool, but that's where my brain is taking me

so that leaves alison/koba/esooa/grogu/jagged/nutella/tutuu

now we're getting warmer, but i hesitate to comfortably remove any more names from that pool. grogu's appeals to me feel so heartfelt that i'm almost tempted to, but i feel that would be a mistake if i think about the game from a holistic perspective. one of koba or esooa would probably be the first names i would look at to further remove from this pool

Remind me again why you're clearing DOOM?

nutella wrote: ↑Tue Jan 26, 2021 11:10 pm genuinely don't think i've ever "powerwolfed" in my life

i would absolutely have bussed by now

I don't remember you bussing in Radiohead or Making Friends. Like the circumstances are different but clearly bussing isn't the first thing you jump to when the going gets rough, and clearly you're fine just hanging along killing townies for a bit. What about this game indicates that you would definitely have bussed as scum?

Grogu wrote: ↑Tue Jan 26, 2021 11:10 pm I’m sure essoa has pushed more than us two. I can’t remember who she pushed since I thought she was pretty towny early on. My mind has changed a lot, yours should to.

I'm on nutella/tutuu has at least one mafia if not to so yeah I'd say my mind has changed a lot lol

nutella wrote: ↑Tue Jan 26, 2021 11:08 pm
Alison wrote: ↑Tue Jan 26, 2021 11:05 pm
nutella wrote: ↑Tue Jan 26, 2021 10:59 pm posts are long and i'm making dinner but the idea i'm "powerwolfing" is a funny one
You've made confident pushes on: Michelle, LC, Made, SPF, Ellie, me. I know for a fact all six of these players are town. Either you're power wolfing and just going on a killing spree amongst townspeople, or your accuracy rating is wayyyy off compared to your usual town meta. Either way, it makes sense to me to investigate.
sometimes my accuracy isn't amazing, this isn't a new thing

holding me to a standard of having perfect reads is unfair. i have been wrong before and i can be wrong again

I've been wrong before too, I don't intend to hold you to that standard. Most people this game have had bad reads in one way or another. I'm just remarking that a string of 6 bad exes is out of character for you and provides more evidence to think you're mafia. Space Invaders provides a counterexample, but in a different dynamic (you were more likely to get hard pocketed in SI because the whole mafia team was trying to pocket you due to the unique setup). I'm not trying to find a standard to hold you to, just trying to establish how far or not far off the baseline your play has been this game.

Grogu wrote: ↑Tue Jan 26, 2021 11:07 pm
Alison wrote: ↑Tue Jan 26, 2021 10:56 pm Actually, quick question for Grogu. @Grogu Sorry if you've explained this before, but who do you think is scum with Esooa in your solve?
No idea who is scum with her. I have my scum reads:
Essoa, jagged**, koba, tutuu.
But who knows

Esooa has been constantly suspecting Koba and tutuu all game, even when all three of them were comfortable townreads. Why would she do that to a scumbuddy?

Hm, to be fair I have seen nutella legitimately go on a killing spree amongst townspeople as town before, in Space Invaders. That game was a particularly weird dynamic though, so not sure how much it maps over. But it does prove that nutella can sometimes be wildly inaccurate as town, even though her reads are normally decent.

nutella wrote: ↑Tue Jan 26, 2021 10:59 pm posts are long and i'm making dinner but the idea i'm "powerwolfing" is a funny one

You've made confident pushes on: Michelle, LC, Made, SPF, Ellie, me. I know for a fact all six of these players are town. Either you're power wolfing and just going on a killing spree amongst townspeople, or your accuracy rating is wayyyy off compared to your usual town meta. Either way, it makes sense to me to investigate.

Grogu wrote: ↑Tue Jan 26, 2021 10:58 pm
Alison wrote: ↑Tue Jan 26, 2021 10:23 pm
Grogu wrote: ↑Tue Jan 26, 2021 10:20 pm I love how Alison complaints about being consensus POE but then has me in all the worlds. Has no real read on me yet I’m scum with every possible team. Yikes
I don't have you in all the worlds. I have you as a possibility, that's all. It could be nutella/DOOM/JJJ, for instance. I don't think you really understood my solve post because you've made comments about it (like asking why I think Esooa is a wolf) that don't match up to what I said at all.
You had her as possible deep wolf. Then gave her an easy out.
Why put her in there only to then explain only why she’s town and not scum? Doesn’t match up

I believe nutella/tutuu contains one or more wolves. I am trying to convince people that nutella/tutuu contains one or more wolves. To do that, I must first convince them that a deepwolf exist. Then, I must convince them why nutella/tutuu are the most likely deepwolves out of the possible deepwolves. To do that I have to examine the likelihood of the other deepwolves being true, including Esooa.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Tue Jan 26, 2021 10:57 pm I think my view of Esooa right now is somewhat analogous to those who suspect nutella instead. Esooa is the consensus game-long town read that I struggle to trust right now.

I haven't dug deep into various team possibilities for her yet though.

I asked Grogu the question about Esooa's teammates precisely because one of the things I found when doing associatives was that Esooa doesn't fit with many teams, and most of the teams she fits in involve you lol. (And Grogu, which is why the question is fairly important for them to answer.)

Grogu wrote: ↑Tue Jan 26, 2021 10:55 pm Copy:
Esooa is pushing Grogu and me moderately hard. Dkkoba is pushing anyone that pushes them fiercely. nutella is pushing me fiercely, and tutuu is pushing DOOM fiercely and me moderately. The two possible patterns that match what I'd expect to see from a deepwolf needing to exert control over the game are nutella and tutuu. Esooa doesn't really fit for a couple of reasons: she doesn't seem that invested in controlling the narrative today, there's been enough rage and controversy over her that I think her teammates would proabbly have shut down if she was scum, and her pushes are chill and don't have the brute force vibe that the other three do.

This is troubling me. If Ali is town, why is essoa pushing me and her not exactly what she said scum would do???
Essoa is pushing town/town. I feel like she’s giving essoa a free pass and being super soft. It is just me?

It's a relative comparison. The consensus POE in this game has been pretty rotten; everyone's pushed town. You've pushed Michelle yourself. The point is not to say "oh, so and so has scumread a townie, so they must be scum" - the point is to look at the quantity of bad scumreads, weigh whether or not those scumreads were there by accident or bad reads or something more, and see how hard the scumreads were pushed. I don't know you're town for sure, so in my mind Esooa has pushed one unresolved slot and one town slot moderately hard. That is probably on par for the rest of the game, so she doesn't stand out as being suspicious from that context alone. I go into more detail why nutella's pushes stand out to me - it's because of the sheer quantity and variety of them.

Actually, quick question for Grogu. @Grogu Sorry if you've explained this before, but who do you think is scum with Esooa in your solve?

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Tue Jan 26, 2021 10:41 pm @Alison, a difficulty I am having:

If I call you town, which I kinda feel like doing right now, then I move one of [Nanook, tutuu, nutella] into my POE of five in your place. You're not in a terribly different place, but you have different "top town reads". Of those three, nutella would actually be my last choice behind both Nanook and tutuu. You spoke a bit of tutuu and team dynamics, but your solve doesn't say a lot about Nanook (or myself, just that we might fit in this team or that). Why do you trust Nanook enough that he isn't where your solving leads you instead of nutella?

nutella can be mafia. At this point I'm not ruling anyone out. But your nutella solve is opposite to my intuition, so it'd help to me to talk that over with you.

Mostly because nanook's associatives are wack. Like he mostly has associatives with Ellie, Made, Michelle etc. that we already know the alignments of. He has one associative with nutella, but nutella has associatives with more people. So to me it makes sense to start from nutella/tutuu and see what worlds those slots block out, and try to fill in the remaining pieces of the puzzle by seeing who fits with the deepwolf, who they were trying to shield or let skate by, etc.

That said, I wouldn't say I trust nanook fully. I've honestly liked his day talk today, I think he's been very chill and unconcerned with shoving the gamestate around, which means if he's mafia he's fairly confident that the gamestate will resolve in his favor today (which doesn't seem likely since we just got a bunch of clears and a lot of good town solving is happening). He's possibly mafia in the worlds that tutuu is the deepwolf, since he's defended her. I'm not clearing him by any means.

Grogu wrote: ↑Tue Jan 26, 2021 10:20 pm I love how Alison complaints about being consensus POE but then has me in all the worlds. Has no real read on me yet I’m scum with every possible team. Yikes

I don't have you in all the worlds. I have you as a possibility, that's all. It could be nutella/DOOM/JJJ, for instance. I don't think you really understood my solve post because you've made comments about it (like asking why I think Esooa is a wolf) that don't match up to what I said at all.

Grogu wrote: ↑Tue Jan 26, 2021 10:18 pm Alison why u have me in POe and also vote Nutella after having essoa as a wolf?
Kinda interesting you avoid voting him and he also avoid voting you and you both mention me as the fall back...

1) Esooa is a she. You've been informed of this already. Please try to respect people's pronouns; it's really important to them.

2) I don't have Esooa as a wolf. Please read my post for a full explanation of my logic.

3) I don't like that you're trying to frame the exe as either being me, or you, or Esooa, and that my sole vote controls the outcome of the day.

What's your take on nutella and tutuu? Are they scum? Do you have plans to vote them?

By the way I thought about including a section where I analyze whether or not outsiders (Dkkoba, Grogu, DOOM) or Syndicate regulars (nutella, nanook, tutuu) are more likely to try to get me murdered as scum and the argument for outsiders was that they wouldn't know how difficult I am to get exed and the argument for regulars was that they wanted bragging rights for misexing me D3 but I scrapped the whole thing because I felt it was too subjective and slightly masturbatory anyway since I don't think I can objectively evaluate this kind of thing.

Grogu wrote: ↑Tue Jan 26, 2021 10:16 pm @Alison vote essoa

no. see my post

Alison wrote: ↑Tue Jan 26, 2021 10:10 pm If anyone finds a problem with my logic let me know. I'll be voting nutella until further notice, but will settle for JJJ/Grogu exe if people are unconvinced, since they have to be cleared before endgame. If you want to flip me to prove that my solve is in good faith, I can't stop you and I'm not going to vote myself, but have the respect of coming back here after my flip and following this line.

[VOTE: nutella] aubergine

Oh, right, and you should probably consider the possibility of Esooa/Dk as a wolf at FX. Before then, I'm confident enough they're town that you should leave them alone.

If anyone finds a problem with my logic let me know. I'll be voting nutella until further notice, but will settle for JJJ/Grogu exe if people are unconvinced, since they have to be cleared before endgame. If you want to flip me to prove that my solve is in good faith, I can't stop you and I'm not going to vote myself, but have the respect of coming back here after my flip and following this line.

Being in the POE means I have a unique perspective on the game. Let us say, for example's sake, that everyone else is working with a 5 person POE. I have an advantage, because I know my own alignment, which means my POE is 4 instead of 5, which means my reads are going to be on average better because I don't wrongly scumread myself. It also means that I'm in the best position to analyze the pushes on me and see which ones seem sincere and which ones come from an inauthentic place. I'm telling you this to convince you that if I do end up being exed my reads are probably better than anyone else's in the game, because I don't want you to ignore them like you do with every legacy read and post.

There is scum in [nutella, Esooa, tutuu, Dkkoba]. There might be more than one; I don't know, but there is almost guaranteed at least one. I don't believe that all four of these are town and made everyone go for a completely garbage POE while a scum team like [Grogu, nanook, JJJ] or whatever just sat on their hands and watched them burn. Whoever is wolf in that category is the most elusive, but they're also the ones who're most vulnerable right now because they just went from being in complete control over the game and pushing town towards consecutive bad exes in a row to getting a wet slap in the face.

Whoever is the deepwolf in there has to put their hand back on the rudder and exert control over the game again. Town is now firmly at an advantage with three clears, 2 free misexes, and a pretty solid grouping of players, associative and scumminess wise. They cannot just sit back and blow smoke - they have to expose themselves a bit, openwolf and try to push a scum agenda.

Esooa is pushing Grogu and me moderately hard. Dkkoba is pushing anyone that pushes them fiercely. nutella is pushing me fiercely, and tutuu is pushing DOOM fiercely and me moderately. The two possible patterns that match what I'd expect to see from a deepwolf needing to exert control over the game are nutella and tutuu. Esooa doesn't really fit for a couple of reasons: she doesn't seem that invested in controlling the narrative today, there's been enough rage and controversy over her that I think her teammates would proabbly have shut down if she was scum, and her pushes are chill and don't have the brute force vibe that the other three do.

Dkkoba is a candidate for deepwolf, but they're acting in complete self pres and don't seem to care about killing anyone except nutella. I don't think it makes sense for the deepwolf candidate to focus solely on self pres here because they can't win if they just focus on surviving and let their team rot. I also don't think it makes sense for a deepwolf candidate to attack someone else in the towncore because it basically outs them if they succeed and then the scum team has no win condition.

That leaves nutella and tutuu. Between the two, I suspect nutella more. Both players are very strongly in their respective town metas, so if my analysis is right, someone is playing a pretty magnificent scum game. Before this game, I'd expect tutuu to do that more easily than nutella (see: Overtime Mafia), but I actually trend towards suspecting nutella here because whichever one of them is a wolf is relying strongly on meta to shield them, and that fits more with nutella's behavior here. She was out of her scum range D1/D2, yes, but she also had a pretty comfortable time those days so if anything is an ideal environment to help you expand your scum range, it's that.

nutella has strongly pushed on: LC, Ellie, Made, Michelle, nook, SPF, myself. All of these individuals have at some point or another been consensus scumreads, so I'd expect the average player to have pushed fiercely on quite a few of the people in this list, but nutella hits all of them. The wide variety of people she's pushed on (all with equal conviction) suggests that she might just not care who dies as long as it's town.

tutuu has strongly pushed on: LC, Ellie, DOOM, myself. That's 3/6, and DOOM's status is still unverified (could still be scum, which would look good for tutuu because I don't think she's scum partners with her after their spat).

Broadly, if nutella is the deepwolf, she's powerwolfing, and if tutuu is the deepwolf, she's really focusing on going deep. Given the events of D1/D2 and what a circus it was, I'd expect to see more powerwolfing, which makes me lean towards nutella. My analysis clears Dkkoba, and Dkkoba strongly scumreads nutella, which is a point against her as well. I'm around 60% nutella is the deepwolf, 35% tutuu is the deepwolf, and 5% something weird happened (like Esooa/Dk being the wolf, the towncore being clean, etc.)

nutella can't be scum partners with Esooa because they had a fight that was way too toxic and personal. I have never played with scum Esooa, but I think it's out of nutella's range, not even as a member of the mafia, but as a member of the Syndicate. Call it angleshooting but I don't think nutella as a Syndicate admin would fake an interaction that heated and personal just to get an edge in a scum game that both of them were trusted in anyway.

nutella prooobably isn't scum partners with nook becuase she bussed him really hard in a situation where she didn't have to bus him at all.

nutella probably isn't scum partners with Dkkoba for the same reason she isn't scum partners with nook - she had no reason to attack Dk like that here if they were scum together.

tutuu isn't scum partners with DOOM unless both of them are capable of doing some real kabuki theatre shit. Re-evaluate this one at FX or whatever, but the spat between them (particularly DOOM telling people not to ping her or mention her or speak her name because she got so tilted by tutuu) just seemed far too intense to be fake.

tutuu isn't scum partners with Esooa either because Esooa has constantly suspected her, even when everyone else was certain tutuu was town. There is no reason to continuously argue against your scum buddy at that point, you just relax and accept that they're going to be consensus town.

Could tutuu and nutella be wolves together? Maybe - they haven't really attacked each other much. Both of them have claimed to have re-evalled all their reads, but not really changed their read on each other. Meh.

So Esooa is double cleared by not being partners with either deepwolf. Dk is possible, but evidence points away from them and they only fit on one team.

That means the possible worlds are:

nutella solo deepwolf - nutella + 2 in [JJJ/Grogu/DOOM]

tutuu solo deepwolf - tutuu + 2 in [JJJ/Grogu/nanook]

nutella/tutuu wolves - nutella + tutuu + [JJJ/Grogu]

That means JJJ/Grogu are probably always in the POE from associative analysis, DOOM/nanook can be scum if the deepwolf fits with them, and there's a pretty high chance of there being 1 in [nutella/tutuu]. Optimal use of the exe is to clear worlds, which means I would prefer to exe either nutella or tutuu first (leaning towards nutella because she fits the deepwolf archetype better) to resolve DOOM/nanook, and then just brute force through [uncleared between DOOM/nanook, JJJ, Grogu] to end the game.

nutella wrote: ↑Tue Jan 26, 2021 9:47 pm also Jay coming to limited solves with scum Alison is something

so I can move my vote but I'd like to know what Alison's solve actually is lol

I'm writing it up now. You're also probably not going to like it.

So here's the deal. I'm town. Lots of people think I'm not. I'm going to explain to you why I'm town, and then if you're not convinced, I'm going to explain to you why sheeping my solve is optimal after I die. Treat this as my legacy post. I don't want people to ignore it or brush it aside or just move on to the next name in the POE since this one wasn't a hit. Do me the respect and courtesy of quoting it and going over it collectively after knowing that my solve was made in good faith.

A lot of people have been going on about how my scum range is infinite, I can fake mindmelds, I'm positioned to be scum, whatever. So all the stuff you townread me for in D1/D2 is invalid. That's fair enough. My towniness comes from an aspect of my scum game which I don't fake, which is that I'm a complete control freak as scum.

Fact: either tutuu was shot at by scum last night, or she was blocked from carrying the kill. If I am scum, I never shoot tutuu here, and if I am scum, I never allow tutuu to carry the kill. I would always do it myself because I have very low roleblocker/jailkeeper equity regardless. The people who I've been bonding and forming rapport are have been people like JJJ and to a lesser extent DOOM. This is, again, not the way scum me plays. I'd go for the pocket on nutella/Esooa, players who are 1) good 2) widely townread 3) already have existing rapport with me because of out of game interactions, not someone I rarely talk to and a complete newcomer who I've never seen before. If I am scum, I do a hell of a lot more to get myself out of the "if there's a deepwolf look here first" territory. Because even if the role claims hadn't happened the way they did, town would've realized that the POE was rotten relatively soon and I would want to position myself to get out of firing range when that happened.

You can call this WIFOM if you want, but these patterns have been happening since the start of the game, and I don't think that far ahead. In particular, it doesn't make sense for mafia!Alison to intentionally botch the N2 nightkill just to get a bit of WIFOM equity, and since mafia!Alison has no reason to allow partner tutuu to carry the nightkill or shoot town tutuu, there are no worlds where that result comes out if I'm a mafia member.

There is consensus suspicion on me. This means that if I am scum I am bussed. Mafia Alison would have enough pride in her mafia play that she wouldn't let herself be the sacrificial bus D3 under bad circumstances for mafia, because she knows she's probably the best player in this game at pulling mafia out of a bad spot. (See: Space Invaders, Shadow Corridors, etc.) There is no world where she goes "okay guys just vote me out and get as much towncred as you can" in scum chat. The only person who has been defending me is Grogu, and if you think I could stand to be in the same scum chat as Grogu for five seconds without laser precision guiding all his posts you don't know me. If the world you are entertaining is a world where scum Alison asks scum Grogu to defend her, best they can come up with would not be "I just think Alison is town". When I was scum in Shadow Corridors with Marmot I left him page after page of possible arguments and excuses he could use in endgame.

So that's my towncase on myself. Believe it or don't. If you don't believe it, commit to sheeping me after my flip.

I'm posting in between classes and can't keep up with the speed of the thread. I'm gonna finish everything up and hopefully find time to play. Can the people who have me at the bottom of their scumlists please explain why (unless you already have) because I don't enjoy it when all the townie shit I do gets dismissed as "Alison could have faked this as scum, oh well, everyone else is townie, guess she's the exe by default".

If you're going to exe me off that you better commit to sheeping my solve after I flip.

nutella wrote: ↑Tue Jan 26, 2021 6:45 pm
Alison wrote: ↑Tue Jan 26, 2021 6:34 pm
JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Tue Jan 26, 2021 6:32 pm
Alison wrote: ↑Tue Jan 26, 2021 6:31 pm I thought you were fairly confident and thought the mafia had been dealt a sore blow earlier, but now you're giving off "bleh this game is hard everyone's a suspect" vibes
They have definitely been dealt a sore blow.

The game is still hard. Look around you. We have a lot of work to do, and that means people gonna face suspicion. I am sick and tired of the bad vibes that have no reason to exist. It's not what Mafia is about.
I don't disagree the game isn't won yet but I do think there's a difference between "we're all fumbling about cluelessly in the dark", which is the vibe I got from your post, and "we have a solid idea of where the mafia is hiding, but we need to tease them out of those hiding spots", which is where I'm at right now.
I agree with the second sentiment and don't think Jay was expressing the first, I think he was expressing the second where Koba is one of the places mafia may be hiding. Do you disagree?

I interpreted his statement about everyone being a suspect as hinting at the first sentiment. I have Koba as 2nd top townread aside from clears so yes I disagree

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Tue Jan 26, 2021 6:35 pm
Alison wrote: ↑Tue Jan 26, 2021 6:34 pm
JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Tue Jan 26, 2021 6:32 pm
Alison wrote: ↑Tue Jan 26, 2021 6:31 pm I thought you were fairly confident and thought the mafia had been dealt a sore blow earlier, but now you're giving off "bleh this game is hard everyone's a suspect" vibes
They have definitely been dealt a sore blow.

The game is still hard. Look around you. We have a lot of work to do, and that means people gonna face suspicion. I am sick and tired of the bad vibes that have no reason to exist. It's not what Mafia is about.
I don't disagree the game isn't won yet but I do think there's a difference between "we're all fumbling about cluelessly in the dark", which is the vibe I got from your post, and "we have a solid idea of where the mafia is hiding, but we need to tease them out of those hiding spots", which is where I'm at right now.
I don't think we're "fumbling". I said that people who aren't confirmed are naturally going to hear suspicions from someone, and getting mad about it is just silly. That includes people I read as town.

okay

Grogu wrote: ↑Tue Jan 26, 2021 6:31 pm Oh yes esso is in the game. Very scummy early on, looking worse now will all the misses.

tbf everyone's been missing this game

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Tue Jan 26, 2021 6:32 pm
Alison wrote: ↑Tue Jan 26, 2021 6:31 pm I thought you were fairly confident and thought the mafia had been dealt a sore blow earlier, but now you're giving off "bleh this game is hard everyone's a suspect" vibes
They have definitely been dealt a sore blow.

The game is still hard. Look around you. We have a lot of work to do, and that means people gonna face suspicion. I am sick and tired of the bad vibes that have no reason to exist. It's not what Mafia is about.

I don't disagree the game isn't won yet but I do think there's a difference between "we're all fumbling about cluelessly in the dark", which is the vibe I got from your post, and "we have a solid idea of where the mafia is hiding, but we need to tease them out of those hiding spots", which is where I'm at right now.

Made wrote: ↑Tue Jan 26, 2021 6:31 pm
Alison wrote: ↑Tue Jan 26, 2021 6:30 pm
JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Tue Jan 26, 2021 6:26 pm Gang, in this environment people are gonna have suspicions of you if your name is not exactly Michelle, Made, or SPF.

Please stop getting pissed off at folks for playing the game. Town does not know the answer, and clearly the answer is not an easy one to find in this game. You're gonna get questions, and you're gonna face suspicion. I know the same applies to me.
hm
what kind of hmm is this?

a suspicious hm, see the post after

Made wrote: ↑Tue Jan 26, 2021 6:28 pm
Made wrote: ↑Tue Jan 26, 2021 6:27 pm
nutella wrote: ↑Sat Jan 23, 2021 1:03 am
DaughterOfOmega wrote: ↑Sat Jan 23, 2021 12:40 am I am surprised everyone is voting ellie

tutuu wrote: ↑Sat Jan 23, 2021 12:41 am
DaughterOfOmega wrote: ↑Sat Jan 23, 2021 12:40 am I am surprised everyone is voting ellie
Did you not just call her Mafia?

tutuu wrote: ↑Sat Jan 23, 2021 12:45 am
DaughterOfOmega wrote: ↑Fri Jan 22, 2021 11:24 pm Yeah Ellie is mafia btw gl with the game

DaughterOfOmega wrote: ↑Sat Jan 23, 2021 12:40 am I am surprised everyone is voting ellie
Like what are these two posts back to back. This is absurd.

DaughterOfOmega wrote: ↑Sat Jan 23, 2021 1:02 am I'm surprised everyone is voting Ellie today
...the actual fuck
if DoOm is mafia this is willdddd
like there's no calculated mafia reason to do this here right?

if DOOM is mafia I'd expect this to just be a simple TMI issue, where they went in thinking "ok my plan is to push Ellie D2" and then got confused by why so many people piled on, given that they knew Ellie was town ahead of time.

I don't think it's particularly AI either way atp

I thought you were fairly confident and thought the mafia had been dealt a sore blow earlier, but now you're giving off "bleh this game is hard everyone's a suspect" vibes

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Tue Jan 26, 2021 6:26 pm Gang, in this environment people are gonna have suspicions of you if your name is not exactly Michelle, Made, or SPF.

Please stop getting pissed off at folks for playing the game. Town does not know the answer, and clearly the answer is not an easy one to find in this game. You're gonna get questions, and you're gonna face suspicion. I know the same applies to me.

hm

Made wrote: ↑Tue Jan 26, 2021 6:19 pm
Alison wrote: ↑Tue Jan 26, 2021 6:11 pm
Made wrote: ↑Tue Jan 26, 2021 6:09 pm I think there's at least two baddies in
alison/Nanook/JJJ/grogu
I'd argue there's three
in order from civvie to wolf
JJJ
Grogu
Nanook
Alison

I'm really not seeing the DoOm tinfoil, but i'll recheck the beginning of the day eventually
Why does there have to be three in this list?

None of us pushed pet reads or narratives very hard D2 - I don't think we had a particularly large hand in setting up the Ellie/Made/Michelle dichotomy. What makes you think town just self destructed as opposed to being guided, when the latter is much more common and makes more sense?
no pet reads were really needed on D2, you just had to ride it out. imo D2 was set up on D1

also, Nanook and JJJ are really weird when looked at together because both had incentive to push me harder than they did.

Nanook cuz i was his scum read and both Ellie and Michelle he had as green
JJJ because his theories was based on either Ellie x Made or Michelle x Made
I don't think it would of been hard get Ellie and Michelle to vote me yesterday. Something about this is weird.

It makes sense NOT to push here if you know i'm not bad
@Michelle @staypositivefriend thoughts here?

who set it up on D1, then? because I don't think the four people on your list is the answer

DkKoba wrote: ↑Tue Jan 26, 2021 6:14 pm if alison flips town its much liklier she attempted to pocket me but sure.

Nice freudian slip :P

Made wrote: ↑Tue Jan 26, 2021 6:13 pm JJJ choosing to start look at DoOm then DK for teammates for Alison doesn't do well with my headcannon new order:
Grogu/JJJ
Nanook
Alison

Again, why am I scum

like you said my Day 1 vote patterns were opportunistic but I don't think they were at all and I would appreciate if you could break down what exactly about them were opportunistic

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Tue Jan 26, 2021 6:10 pm
Alison wrote: ↑Tue Jan 26, 2021 5:52 pm I'm not going to bother trying to mess with color tags but my rainbow reads look something like this now:

[SPF, Made, Michelle] - town confirmed
[Esooa, Dkkoba] - old towncore
[tutuu, nutella, nook, JJJ] - middling town
DOOM
Grogu

The main shift of note is that I've pushed tutuu and nutella down a peg, because I think there's probably a deepwolf in the old [Esooa/Dkkoba/tutuu/nutella] core, and those two fit the bill best (have been pushing specific narratives to try to corral the game, and I know for a fact they're wrong about me)
Please talk to me about me.

I had you as a confident townread yesterday. Now I'm less confident. I don't know how good your scumgame is or how capable you are of faking a mindmeld with me. Your plus points today are that you've outputted a pretty chill vibe in the face of pressure and bad developments for scum, and your negative points today are that you don't seem particularly eager to look into the towncore to see if you've gone wrong there.

What's your read on the people in the towncore? Do you still trust them after the claims?

Made wrote: ↑Tue Jan 26, 2021 6:09 pm I think there's at least two baddies in
alison/Nanook/JJJ/grogu
I'd argue there's three
in order from civvie to wolf
JJJ
Grogu
Nanook
Alison

I'm really not seeing the DoOm tinfoil, but i'll recheck the beginning of the day eventually

Why does there have to be three in this list?

None of us pushed pet reads or narratives very hard D2 - I don't think we had a particularly large hand in setting up the Ellie/Made/Michelle dichotomy. What makes you think town just self destructed as opposed to being guided, when the latter is much more common and makes more sense?

DaughterOfOmega wrote: ↑Tue Jan 26, 2021 6:08 pm I don't do well with people being petty and mocking me. I will now be blocking you, and trying to play the game the way I wanted to from the start, I will ask you not to talk to me any further.

hm

Made wrote: ↑Tue Jan 26, 2021 5:54 pm
Alison wrote: ↑Tue Jan 26, 2021 5:52 pm I'm not going to bother trying to mess with color tags but my rainbow reads look something like this now:

[SPF, Made, Michelle] - town confirmed
[Esooa, Dkkoba] - old towncore
[tutuu, nutella, nook, JJJ] - middling town
DOOM
Grogu

The main shift of note is that I've pushed tutuu and nutella down a peg, because I think there's probably a deepwolf in the old [Esooa/Dkkoba/tutuu/nutella] core, and those two fit the bill best (have been pushing specific narratives to try to corral the game, and I know for a fact they're wrong about me)
so you think nutella is playing scum even though she's far out of her scum range?

There's two worlds: "easy" world and "hard" world. Easy world is if the team is something like DOOM/Grogu, and then nook or JJJ. I'm not sure that team fits with the gamestate we had D2 unless town self destructed really hard - none of them have really been pushing their views/reads.

"Hard" world means that one of [tutuu/nutella/Esooa/Dkkoba] is scum. I've never played with scum Esooa or Dkkoba, but I feel like tutuu/nutella have been out of their scum range this game. Problem is that those two are the ones who've been positioning themselves to push agendas like deepwolves, while Esooa/Dkkoba have just seen the claims and then done nothing all day (Esooa just townread nanook and peaced out, Dkkoba has been afk).

Evidence points to the world being hard. If the world is hard, either deepwolf or deepwolves are acting in ways that make no sense, or deepwolf or deepwolves are out of their scum range and have been falsely cleared. I have to take the possibility into account.

@Made see reads list above. Tiers are ordered, so Esooa is townier than Dkkoba, nook is townier than JJJ, etc.

I'm not going to bother trying to mess with color tags but my rainbow reads look something like this now:

[SPF, Made, Michelle] - town confirmed
[Esooa, Dkkoba] - old towncore
[tutuu, nutella, nook, JJJ] - middling town
DOOM
Grogu

The main shift of note is that I've pushed tutuu and nutella down a peg, because I think there's probably a deepwolf in the old [Esooa/Dkkoba/tutuu/nutella] core, and those two fit the bill best (have been pushing specific narratives to try to corral the game, and I know for a fact they're wrong about me)

Made wrote: ↑Tue Jan 26, 2021 5:38 pm
Alison wrote: ↑Tue Jan 26, 2021 5:31 pm
Made wrote: ↑Tue Jan 26, 2021 3:27 pm Wait so we’re confident that Tutuu is mafia because she’s hit all of her town markers but hasn’t been mafia in 2 years???

Alisons votes look the worst here
[VOTE: Alison] aubergine
Explain this?

Michelle wrote: ↑Tue Jan 26, 2021 3:21 pm I want to see the progression of votes in day 1, I coloured them in green the flipped villagers, in light green the mechanically confirmed
Btw @DkKoba you said you have some pics after VCs please post them
Spoiler: show
Michelle wrote: ↑Sun Jan 24, 2021 1:24 pm deleting some rows from VCs
and now ordering them chronologically
Michelle wrote: ↑Sat Jan 23, 2021 3:54 pmthis is a post where I quoted some VCs, keeping it for refference

Michelle wrote: ↑Wed Jan 20, 2021 12:00 am This wagon formation alwaya bakes a wolf

[VOTE: SPF] aubergine

Alison 1 Made
Esooa 1 DkKoba
JaggedJimmyJay 1 tutuu
Long Con 1 Esooa
NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME 1 Long Con
staypositivefriend 1 Michelle

Michelle wrote: ↑Wed Jan 20, 2021 12:57 am
Alison 1 Made
DaughterOfOmega
EllieDelight 1 Long Con
JaggedJimmyJay 1 tutuu
Long Con 5 EllieDelight, nutella, Alison, staypositivefriend, Esooa
Michelle 1 DkKoba
staypositivefriend 1 Michelle

Oh my,

Michelle wrote: ↑Wed Jan 20, 2021 8:58 am When on earth a player like LC has such a huge wagon on day 1 of a game and one who claimed wolf like me and is supected by everyone and their mother has just one vote?
Probably he scum slipped, but i am not sold on that, but keeping all day a single wagon is antitown iykwim

And the game has few mafia monsters, none of them stressed by such thing.
I will try to read and see what happened.

EllieDelight 1 Long Con
JaggedJimmyJay 1 tutuu
Long Con 7 MacDougall, nutella, Made, EllieDelight, Alison, staypositivefriend, Esooa
Made 1 NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME
Michelle 1 DkKoba
staypositivefriend 1 Michelle

Michelle wrote: ↑Thu Jan 21, 2021 2:08 am
DaughterOfOmega 1 tutuu
EllieDelight 3 Long Con, Esooa, MacDougall
Esooa 1 DaughterOfOmega
Long Con 4 staypositivefriend, nutella, EllieDelight, Alison
Made 2 NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME, JaggedJimmyJay
Michelle 2 Grogu, Made
staypositivefriend 1 Michelle
tutuu 1 DkKoba

Michelle wrote: ↑Thu Jan 21, 2021 2:42 am
DaughterOfOmega 1 tutuu
EllieDelight 4 Long Con, Esooa, MacDougall, Michelle
Esooa 1 DaughterOfOmega
Long Con 4 staypositivefriend, nutella, EllieDelight, Alison
Made 2 NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME, JaggedJimmyJay
Michelle 2 Grogu, Made
tutuu 1 DkKoba

Tied wagons rn

Michelle wrote: ↑Thu Jan 21, 2021 5:10 am
EllieDelight 3 Long Con, Esooa, Michelle
Esooa 1 MacDougall
Long Con 6 staypositivefriend, nutella, EllieDelight, Alison, Made, DaughterOfOmega
Made 2 NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME, JaggedJimmyJay
Michelle 1 Grogu
tutuu 1 DkKoba

Michelle wrote: ↑Thu Jan 21, 2021 2:33 pm
Alison 1 Michelle
EllieDelight 3 JaggedJimmyJay, Esooa, Alison
Esooa 1 MacDougall
Long Con 5 staypositivefriend, nutella, EllieDelight, Made, DaughterOfOmega
MacDougall 1 Long Con
Made 1 NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME
Michelle 1 Grogu
tutuu 1 DkKoba

Michelle wrote: ↑Thu Jan 21, 2021 2:43 pm [VOTE: Ellie ] aubergine

EllieDelight 5 JaggedJimmyJay, Michelle, Esooa, Long Con, Alison
Esooa 1 MacDougall
Long Con 5 staypositivefriend, nutella, EllieDelight, Made, DaughterOfOmega
Made 1 NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME
Michelle 1 Grogu
tutuu 1 DkKoba

Michelle wrote: ↑Thu Jan 21, 2021 5:21 pm
EllieDelight 6 tutuu, JaggedJimmyJay, Michelle, Esooa, Long Con, Alison
Grogu 1 staypositivefriend
Long Con 5 nutella, EllieDelight, MacDougall, Made, DaughterOfOmega
Made 1 NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME
Michelle 1 Grogu

Michelle wrote: ↑Thu Jan 21, 2021 5:38 pm
EllieDelight 6 tutuu, JaggedJimmyJay, Michelle, Esooa, Long Con, Alison
Esooa 2 Made, DkKoba
Grogu 1 staypositivefriend
Long Con 4 nutella, EllieDelight, MacDougall, DaughterOfOmega
Made 1 NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME
Michelle 1 Grogu

Michelle wrote: ↑Thu Jan 21, 2021 6:08 pm [VOTE: Made ] aubergine
Voted for science

EllieDelight 5 staypositivefriend, tutuu, Esooa, Long Con, Alison
Esooa 2 DkKoba, MacDougall
Long Con 3 nutella, EllieDelight, Made
Made 4 Michelle, DaughterOfOmega, NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME, JaggedJimmyJay
Michelle 1 Grogu

Michelle wrote: ↑Sat Jan 23, 2021 2:31 am
EllieDelight 4 Alison, Esooa, tutuu, nutella
Made 1 NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME

votes now
Ellie at 4 votes

Michelle wrote: ↑Sat Jan 23, 2021 9:16 am I found my last post when i fell asleep
Wagons:

EllieDelight. 5 staypositivefriend, tutuu, Esooa, Long Con, Alison
Esooa. 2. DkKoba, MacDougall
Long Con 3. nutella, EllieDelight, Made
Made. 4. Michelle, DaughterOfOmega, NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME, JaggedJimmyJay
Michelle 1 Grogu

I woke up with the idea that all these were t/t/t, except Esooa's, she is suspect because is not growing as wagon at all.
Grogu voting for me as single vote doesn't look like a wolf tbh

Nutella"s push for Long Con looks like she made it up and shows why i will never trust Nut in this game.

Michelle wrote: ↑Sat Jan 23, 2021 3:10 am how eveyone went back to LC?

EllieDelight 2 tutuu, Alison
Esooa 1 DkKoba
Long Con 10 JaggedJimmyJay, nutella, EllieDelight, Made, Esooa, staypositivefriend, NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME, Long Con, MacDougall, DaughterOfOmega
Made 1 Michelle
Michelle 1 Grogu

I kept the last VC in this form to be easy to work with

these votes look most opprotunistic

Also gun to head rainbow reads Alison?

I was vote parked on my scumread the whole day and then switched to Ellie when I got cold feet. The exe was always between LC/Ellie there I don't know what else you expected me to do; I would probably just stay parked on LC forever if I was scum, since I had no reason to prefer an exe between LC/Ellie.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Tue Jan 26, 2021 3:55 pm
Made wrote: ↑Tue Jan 26, 2021 3:50 pm To bounce off of that, today had three turns:
Mafia finding out there’s a jail keeper and not a sick child when nobody died

Town and mafia finding out I was cop and that Michelle was green checked

Town and mafia finding out about SPF and Tutuu

Anyone’s particular reaction between these notes feel awkward?
I'm trying not to dig my heels to deep into any theory like this while I work on a detached assessment of the game. With a gun to my head though I think Omega's reception of events has been the most awkward. Alison's has been pretty subdued as well.

My emotional reaction is NAI.

NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Tue Jan 26, 2021 3:50 pm Spf should just rand between saving Michelle and made imo. Highest chance to get a save off successfully.

Won't they just shoot her?

Made wrote: ↑Tue Jan 26, 2021 3:27 pm Wait so we’re confident that Tutuu is mafia because she’s hit all of her town markers but hasn’t been mafia in 2 years???

Alisons votes look the worst here
[VOTE: Alison] aubergine

Explain this?

nutella wrote: ↑Tue Jan 26, 2021 3:08 pm
JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Tue Jan 26, 2021 2:44 pm I’m iffy on Alison clearing Nanook for days on the basis of a power role read. Could be, but the thought never occurred to me, and Nanook calls himself confirmed all the time.
yeah my thought when she said that was that it's a very easy thing for her to set up to call back to lol

If I am scum what advantage does this give me over just laying down some generic cheap townread on nook and either killing him at night if I genuinely believe he's a PR or just going about my business if I don't

Just because I can come and argue that I would have killed nook if I was scum?

No it doesn't. Gamestate doesn't point to me being the deepest wolf, wtf

nutella wrote: ↑Tue Jan 26, 2021 3:07 pm vibing with tooty toots a lot. i think ali/domo/grog fits

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Tue Jan 26, 2021 2:44 pm I’m iffy on Alison clearing Nanook for days on the basis of a power role read. Could be, but the thought never occurred to me, and Nanook calls himself confirmed all the time.

I cleared him for like one in game day.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Tue Jan 26, 2021 2:42 pm I suspect Nanook’s solving style would be relatively easy to fake, e.g. making snap reads with a low degree of wordy explanation and building an elimination pool. I think his responses to today’s claim drama would be more difficult to fake, especially in real time.

It's probably within his scum range, I actually find the most townie thing he's done is to not care about pushing a line of thinking at all

nutella wrote: ↑Tue Jan 26, 2021 2:37 pm
Alison wrote: ↑Tue Jan 26, 2021 12:15 pm Two questions.

@NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME, did you have any inkling as to the basis of my townread on you?

@nutella Why do you think I'm scum?
very, very limited world possibilities and you have positioned yourself the way i think you would as a wolf

This is not how I'd be playing this game as a wolf lol, I would be aggressively pocketing the towncore if I was one, and I wouldn't have taken such a lax attitude with a POE I knew would flip town sooner or later.

I feel like you're trying to shove a narrative through where it *has* to be me because that's the only world that fits and I don't think that's true at all. Who do you think went deep D1/D2? And don't say me, lots of people said they would sus me first if the game was even slightly hard, I was only barely trusted.

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