The Syndicate

the thread needs to wake up

sig could be a wolf but he is showing a lack of any real self preservation intent by pushing on dennis

pyxxy had a progression on falcon throughout d1 and d2 that is very easy to see as a wolf awkwardly shifting their positioning once their other partner (seanzie) died, and his solving has felt the least sincere to me compared to my other townreads

so, willing to have my mind changed, willing to discuss it further, but that's where im at

that's the reason why I really want people to engage with my thoughts today, because if I'm wrong, I need help figuring out where

honestly I think that it is pyxxy right now

@tedxtr - wya?

here*

staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Sat May 13, 2023 12:08 am trustfall:

so, for those of you who are uninitiated, the premise behind a trustfall is simply to “name the best reasons you can think of the call a player town”.

i do mental trustfalls in pretty much every game i play, but i feel like the gamestate right now kind of necessitates me thinking out loud and sharing that process as transparently as possible

so, let’s get started:

dennis

-he had a towny reaction to being potentially eliminated yesterday - continuing to post as normal and seeming to take the elimination in stride, when if dennis was the final maf, i would expect him to be a bit more panicked/concerned? his post at p#1732 looks like a villager who realizes he should stop talking bcuz he might be dead, and not like a wolf who is worried that the game is about to come to an end

-what benefit does dennis have to defend me as a wolf yesterday? i don’t see a clear one. if dennis is mafia, then he has the easiest excuse in the world to push on me. kate died and she was convinced i was mafia. sixstrings was confident i was mafia too. why not just go the path of least resistance and sheep his family?

if dennis is mafia, then he would need to be playing from the perspective that he has to secure as many miseliminations as possible. bearing that in mind, it would have probably been a lot easier for dennis to get me eliminated first followed by sixstrings, instead of the other way around. i would have (likely) died with sixstrings in my immediate POE, and sixstrings would look bad after i flipped town. so, again, why not just vote me out and then use my elimination as an excuse to get sixstrings voted out the next day? that’s two miseliminations right there!

so in short, i’m struggling to see why dennis goes out of his way to make the game harder for himself in a world where he’s mafia

neon

-to put it as simply as possible, it does not feel to me like neon had TMI of falcon’s alignment. she went out of her way to defend him and call him a likely town flip, even at a point when falcon had seemed to have given up on saving himself

there is no real strategic incentive that i can see for neon defending falcon in the way that she did, and i think that her defense of falcon particularly makes sense in the context of falcon seeming to play in a way that was intended to manipulate neon’s meta on him (ie: the super pockety posts he made toward her, and the way neon expressed the sentiment that falcon might not be so bold as to try to pocket her 2 games in a row)

-the specific way that neon defended falcon aligns with the exact meta that ive seen in the last 2 games ive played with her (ie: neon has a tendency to passionately defend players she thinks are being treated/pushed unfairly), and idk if she would go out of her way to replicate this meta as a wolf unless her goal was to pocket just specifically me

-p#102 from seanzie (the post where seanzie is like: “i believe that SPF is telling the truth about mafia, and i think you do too”) is a weird post to make toward your own partner, because it feels a bit …like gaslighting in a sense? the wording of the post comes off as rather manipulative and i struggle to understand what the train of thought behind that post was if seanzie/neon were W/W, whereas it’s easy for me to see why seanzie would make that post if neon is town and he wanted to convince her that i’m mafia

-the way falcon talked about neon on p#271, p#275, and p#337 (and other posts, but those feel like the big ones to me) all feel a bit like TMI of her alignment

hard to imagine falcon going out of his way to hard townread his partner in the early stages of the game, but easy to imagine falcon trying to pocket neon in the early stages of the game by talking about how towny she is

-the way falcon sheeped neon on psv felt a bit like a wolf piggybacking off of a villagers incorrect push as opposed to a wolf sheeping another wolf

-super small point, but i like that neon essentially gave a non-answer on p#75 when she was asked to explain her townread on falcon, (Ie: “vibes”), when wolves who are TRing their partners or trying to powerwolf tend to be a bit more overly explanatory, in my experience

potentialsheltervet

-seanzie’s treatment of psv arguably spews PSV as town. for example:

1. i find it kind of difficult to imagine seanzie going out of his way to dunk on his partner as soon as the game starts (p#61)

2. ………if seanzie went out of his way to dunk on his partner as soon as the game starts, why not commit to distancing from her? why do this really awkward shift where you start acting cloying toward her and talk about how her responses have been towny? (ie: p#191, p#296, p#452

3. it’s kind of easy for me to see seanzie pushing on PSV at the start of the game as a way to “anchor” himself into the game or produce content, and then backing off once he saw that PSV was pushing on him for it and that he wanted to catch less heat. it’s a little harder for me to understand why seanzie would open the game by distancing from his partner, only to change his mind rather awkwardly and abruptly

-falcon pushing on PSV with neon reads a bit like a wolf trying to find an easy name to push on, though this is a more minor point since his push on her was ultimately fairly limited

-idk if psv would be so bold as to townread both of her partners toward the beginning of the game at p#277

-it was easy to see the writing on the wall that falcon was going to die on d2, but PSV played in a way that gave her zero towncred from his flip. i would expect a wolf on d2 to distance a bit from falcon at least a little bit or call him null or something, but PSV outright said he was town and that she didn’t want to vote for him. again, this is a counter intuitive way for PSV to treat falcon if they are W/W and she is preparing to solo endgame

-psv has felt like one of most invested/solvey players over the last dayphase or so. this isn’t super town indicative since maf are capable of being invested too, but i kind of anticipate maf would feel a bit demotivated here, and i dont sense that in psv’s play

pyxxy

-it’s a bit towny in a vacuum that pyxxy called out falcon on p#503 and that he seemed actively suspicious of him in the early game before most players were. if falcon and pyxxy are W/W and pyxxy was trying to distance from him, not totally sure why he would switch his read on falcon on d2 so abruptly

-there are some micro towntells i’ve picked up on from pyxxy, like his handling of camilia on d1, or him saying that he should be POE’d below sig,

sig

-i like sig coming right out of the gate pushing on falcon on d2 on p#1169, when a wolf might be more reluctant to hardbus their remaining partner at that stage

-at a very base level, i think that sig’s posts are good. i have townread him whenever i see him posting in the thread in realtime, because his posts seem to indicate a high depth of thought and i generally find it easy to understand his conclusions even if i disagree with them. (ie: based on this analysis, i think the 3 person POE he’s pushing of myself/psv/dennis is likely wrong, but i can believe that he believes in it)

i also found it towny that he said he was purposely withholding some of his thoughts on p#1497 bcuz he wanted to let the day play out, and i think it’s difficult for wolves to come up with posts like that organically

it’s difficult to know how much weight to put into this, because i don’t have a good feel for how wide sig’s scumrange is, but it’s something on my mind regardless

tedxtr

falcon pushed on ted and voted for him rather abruptly on p#922 and p#923, and i kind of think this might be clearing for ted

that’s because at the time, falcon was the leading wagon (to my memory) and one of the main contenders for elimination. ted was one of the other leading candidates for miselimination at the time, and i had my vote parked on him

so,, falcon abruptly jumping on ted after barely mentioning him and then pushing on him with some posts that feel quite explicitly “bad faith” reads to me more like a wolf who is trying to find an excuse to get a villager miseliminated and self-preserve, as opposed to a wolf who is bussing another wolf

if falcon was bussing ted, i would expect their dynamic to play out a bit differently from how it did. for one, i think that ted would have probably made a bigger show out of his push on falcon instead of just saying: “is falcon still in his wolf meta?” and parking his vote on him once he got a “yes” answer, and i think that falcon would have proly tried to make his push look more aggressive/clearing for ted instead of just pushing on him in the laziest/most opportunistic way possible

-super minor point, but there was a point on d1 when ted and falcon were both parked on psv together (which kate pointed out on p#562), and i tend to think that wolves are generally cautious about parking on wagons together and try to distance by voting for different players, esp on d1 when voting with each other is almost never necessary

-another smaller point, but ted’s solving has just consistently felt “real” to me in a way that scum solving usually does not, such as his conviction on PSV being mafia and the way he has gravitated back and forth toward pursuing his read on her to losing confidence in it, or his hedginess about who should die at the end of yesterday, or even the way he questioned me about why i was interrogating kate at the end of d3

i know things are rlly quiet today but i would super appreciate thoughts on any of the reads I gave her

pyxxy wrote: ↑Sat May 13, 2023 1:20 am
staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Sat May 13, 2023 12:20 am but honestly, full transparency, right now i am kind of feeling like the exact way to win the game is to eliminate me, pyxxy, and sig in whatever order. i struggle to see any of the other names being mafia right now, and my reasons to townread them feel good to me

so if anyone here thinks that im misclearing any of ted/neon/psv/dennis, then i really need you to speak up and help me see it
nope my only waver is PSV

if I had to order for myself:
Neon - towncore
Dennis - strong townread
ted - townread

and mostly this is a "how much have I played with someone" list

(but I suspect the last scum feels that Dennis is the most obv town, thus my guess earlier that he's next to go......home from the summer camp trip)

talk more about PSV? why is she a waver compared to your other townreads?

@sig - what do u think of the reasons I gave to townread Dennis on the last page?

but honestly, full transparency, right now i am kind of feeling like the exact way to win the game is to eliminate me, pyxxy, and sig in whatever order. i struggle to see any of the other names being mafia right now, and my reasons to townread them feel good to me

so if anyone here thinks that im misclearing any of ted/neon/psv/dennis, then i really need you to speak up and help me see it

so uhh....i'm going to chew on all of that for a while. i would really appreciate peoples thoughts and opinions because i spent a lot of time working on those posts and i really want ppl to interact with me today so that i can leave a confident legacy if i end up getting eliminated

so anyway, some observations from having done all that and having spent some time going back through the game in general:

-i found it very easy to come up with reasons to townread dennis, neon, ted, and potentialshelter

-with neon in particular, i actually had to make myself stop writing new reasons to townread her, just because i kept coming up with new ones as i looked back through the game. i think one of the bigger developments from doing this exercise is that i'm now pretty confident that she is town, especially since i couldn't really come up with any meaningful reasons to distrust her in my distrustfall, and i felt like my tinfoil against her didn't really hold up to any scrutiny

-i also kind of want to treat dennis as clear too. my reasons to trust him were a bit less sparse than some of my other reads (ie: neon), but i also felt really swayed by my reasoning while i was writing it in the moment. i don't see why dennis ever takes the approach he does to me yesterday if he is a solo wolf who needs to endgame. it would be shooting himself in the foot for no real reason

-....tbh kind of the same with ted....i think that falcon's push on him is arguably clearing and i feel like i am overcomplicating/overthinking by theorizing about a world where he and falcon hard pushed each other on d2 at a point when their other partner was already dead. it seems like the most simple explanation here is the most likely to be true

-which kind of leads me to sig and pyxy, who i felt like i had the least amount of reasons to townread respectively

-but even though i didn't have many reasons to townread sig, i still felt kind of swayed by the small reasons that i did have to townread him. i did have to do some digging/grasping to come up with those reasons tbh, but they felt a bit convincing to me when i was writing them

-as for pyxy, i really struggled to come up with coherent reasons to townread him - it was a lot harder than i expected it to be. but i did find it easy to come up with reasons to be worried about him in my distrustfall (like his progression on falcon and the way he piggybacked off of neon's tr on falcon to defend falcon himself, after pushing on him throughout d1)

-i found it the hardest overall to come up with reasons to distrust neon, psv, and sig. that might sound weird since sig isn't in my most confident townreads, but it was just a bit difficult for me to write about him in either direction

but the fun doesn't stop there, dear readers. in the process of making that trustfall, i also made a distrustfall. this is the same concept as the “trustfall”, but this time, you are trying to name the best reasons you can think of to call a player mafia, and to challenge the logic behind your townreads as critically as possible

dennis

-dennis’s progression on both seanzie and falcon followed a similar pattern - barely speaking about or acknowledging them, and then proceeding to vote/push them rather abruptly once the momentum shifted against them. the reality is that dennis played virtually zero role in building momentum against either seanzie or falcon, so there is no real towncred to give him for those eliminations

neon

-the obvious explanation for neon defending falcon (that i ignored in my trustfall) could simply be that she wanted to keep her partner alive as possible because she did not want to try to solo endgame. this would make some level of sense

(.........though if this was the case, i would expect neon to be a bit more proactive in trying to save him instead of just calling him town and leaving it at that)

potentialsheltvervet

-at the end of the day, a lot of the reasons i have to townread PSV are based on spew/wifom, which are both easy to draw incorrect conclusions from and tends to be the territory where i misread players the most

pyxxy

-it was kind of hard for me to come up with strong reasons to townread pyxxy in general

-pyxxy doesn’t have much of a visible progression on either seanzie or falcon. he was absent when seanzie got flashwagoned at the EOD1

-his shift from: “i find falcon scummy and think he’s in scum meta” to “im sheeping neon’s tr on falcon” on d2 is a bit abrupt, and it could very well be because seanzie died and pyxxy was trying to pivot away from having to distance from his other partner

-falcon and seanzie did not seem to interact with or acknowledge the existence of pyxxy much at all

sig

-my reasons to townread sig feel a little weak in comparison to my other townreads right now, and essentially boil down to: “I Like His Posts”

a counterargument to the towncred im giving to him for pushing on falcon could be that sig realized he would need to be the one to endgame once seanzie flipped, and so he entered d2 with the specific intent to push on falcon and make himself look good

tedxtr

-my perception is that ted has deflated a bit over the last dayphase or so, which could theoretically come from a wolf who is sad about both of their partners being dead and is lacking motivation

-my tr on ted is largely based on spew and spew is super malleable and easy to draw incorrect conclusions from

trustfall:

so, for those of you who are uninitiated, the premise behind a trustfall is simply to “name the best reasons you can think of the call a player town”.

i do mental trustfalls in pretty much every game i play, but i feel like the gamestate right now kind of necessitates me thinking out loud and sharing that process as transparently as possible

so, let’s get started:

dennis

-he had a towny reaction to being potentially eliminated yesterday - continuing to post as normal and seeming to take the elimination in stride, when if dennis was the final maf, i would expect him to be a bit more panicked/concerned? his post at p#1732 looks like a villager who realizes he should stop talking bcuz he might be dead, and not like a wolf who is worried that the game is about to come to an end

-what benefit does dennis have to defend me as a wolf yesterday? i don’t see a clear one. if dennis is mafia, then he has the easiest excuse in the world to push on me. kate died and she was convinced i was mafia. sixstrings was confident i was mafia too. why not just go the path of least resistance and sheep his family?

if dennis is mafia, then he would need to be playing from the perspective that he has to secure as many miseliminations as possible. bearing that in mind, it would have probably been a lot easier for dennis to get me eliminated first followed by sixstrings, instead of the other way around. i would have (likely) died with sixstrings in my immediate POE, and sixstrings would look bad after i flipped town. so, again, why not just vote me out and then use my elimination as an excuse to get sixstrings voted out the next day? that’s two miseliminations right there!

so in short, i’m struggling to see why dennis goes out of his way to make the game harder for himself in a world where he’s mafia

neon

-to put it as simply as possible, it does not feel to me like neon had TMI of falcon’s alignment. she went out of her way to defend him and call him a likely town flip, even at a point when falcon had seemed to have given up on saving himself

there is no real strategic incentive that i can see for neon defending falcon in the way that she did, and i think that her defense of falcon particularly makes sense in the context of falcon seeming to play in a way that was intended to manipulate neon’s meta on him (ie: the super pockety posts he made toward her, and the way neon expressed the sentiment that falcon might not be so bold as to try to pocket her 2 games in a row)

-the specific way that neon defended falcon aligns with the exact meta that ive seen in the last 2 games ive played with her (ie: neon has a tendency to passionately defend players she thinks are being treated/pushed unfairly), and idk if she would go out of her way to replicate this meta as a wolf unless her goal was to pocket just specifically me

-p#102 from seanzie (the post where seanzie is like: “i believe that SPF is telling the truth about mafia, and i think you do too”) is a weird post to make toward your own partner, because it feels a bit …like gaslighting in a sense? the wording of the post comes off as rather manipulative and i struggle to understand what the train of thought behind that post was if seanzie/neon were W/W, whereas it’s easy for me to see why seanzie would make that post if neon is town and he wanted to convince her that i’m mafia

-the way falcon talked about neon on p#271, p#275, and p#337 (and other posts, but those feel like the big ones to me) all feel a bit like TMI of her alignment

hard to imagine falcon going out of his way to hard townread his partner in the early stages of the game, but easy to imagine falcon trying to pocket neon in the early stages of the game by talking about how towny she is

-the way falcon sheeped neon on psv felt a bit like a wolf piggybacking off of a villagers incorrect push as opposed to a wolf sheeping another wolf

-super small point, but i like that neon essentially gave a non-answer on p#75 when she was asked to explain her townread on falcon, (Ie: “vibes”), when wolves who are TRing their partners or trying to powerwolf tend to be a bit more overly explanatory, in my experience

potentialsheltervet

-seanzie’s treatment of psv arguably spews PSV as town. for example:

1. i find it kind of difficult to imagine seanzie going out of his way to dunk on his partner as soon as the game starts (p#61)

2. ………if seanzie went out of his way to dunk on his partner as soon as the game starts, why not commit to distancing from her? why do this really awkward shift where you start acting cloying toward her and talk about how her responses have been towny? (ie: p#191, p#296, p#452

3. it’s kind of easy for me to see seanzie pushing on PSV at the start of the game as a way to “anchor” himself into the game or produce content, and then backing off once he saw that PSV was pushing on him for it and that he wanted to catch less heat. it’s a little harder for me to understand why seanzie would open the game by distancing from his partner, only to change his mind rather awkwardly and abruptly

-falcon pushing on PSV with neon reads a bit like a wolf trying to find an easy name to push on, though this is a more minor point since his push on her was ultimately fairly limited

-idk if psv would be so bold as to townread both of her partners toward the beginning of the game at p#277

-it was easy to see the writing on the wall that falcon was going to die on d2, but PSV played in a way that gave her zero towncred from his flip. i would expect a wolf on d2 to distance a bit from falcon at least a little bit or call him null or something, but PSV outright said he was town and that she didn’t want to vote for him. again, this is a counter intuitive way for PSV to treat falcon if they are W/W and she is preparing to solo endgame

-psv has felt like one of most invested/solvey players over the last dayphase or so. this isn’t super town indicative since maf are capable of being invested too, but i kind of anticipate maf would feel a bit demotivated here, and i dont sense that in psv’s play

pyxxy

-it’s a bit towny in a vacuum that pyxxy called out falcon on p#503 and that he seemed actively suspicious of him in the early game before most players were. if falcon and pyxxy are W/W and pyxxy was trying to distance from him, not totally sure why he would switch his read on falcon on d2 so abruptly

-there are some micro towntells i’ve picked up on from pyxxy, like his handling of camilia on d1, or him saying that he should be POE’d below sig,

sig

-i like sig coming right out of the gate pushing on falcon on d2 on p#1169, when a wolf might be more reluctant to hardbus their remaining partner at that stage

-at a very base level, i think that sig’s posts are good. i have townread him whenever i see him posting in the thread in realtime, because his posts seem to indicate a high depth of thought and i generally find it easy to understand his conclusions even if i disagree with them. (ie: based on this analysis, i think the 3 person POE he’s pushing of myself/psv/dennis is likely wrong, but i can believe that he believes in it)

i also found it towny that he said he was purposely withholding some of his thoughts on p#1497 bcuz he wanted to let the day play out, and i think it’s difficult for wolves to come up with posts like that organically

it’s difficult to know how much weight to put into this, because i don’t have a good feel for how wide sig’s scumrange is, but it’s something on my mind regardless

tedxtr

falcon pushed on ted and voted for him rather abruptly on p#922 and p#923, and i kind of think this might be clearing for ted

that’s because at the time, falcon was the leading wagon (to my memory) and one of the main contenders for elimination. ted was one of the other leading candidates for miselimination at the time, and i had my vote parked on him

so,, falcon abruptly jumping on ted after barely mentioning him and then pushing on him with some posts that feel quite explicitly “bad faith” reads to me more like a wolf who is trying to find an excuse to get a villager miseliminated and self-preserve, as opposed to a wolf who is bussing another wolf

if falcon was bussing ted, i would expect their dynamic to play out a bit differently from how it did. for one, i think that ted would have probably made a bigger show out of his push on falcon instead of just saying: “is falcon still in his wolf meta?” and parking his vote on him once he got a “yes” answer, and i think that falcon would have proly tried to make his push look more aggressive/clearing for ted instead of just pushing on him in the laziest/most opportunistic way possible

-super minor point, but there was a point on d1 when ted and falcon were both parked on psv together (which kate pointed out on p#562), and i tend to think that wolves are generally cautious about parking on wagons together and try to distance by voting for different players, esp on d1 when voting with each other is almost never necessary

-another smaller point, but ted’s solving has just consistently felt “real” to me in a way that scum solving usually does not, such as his conviction on PSV being mafia and the way he has gravitated back and forth toward pursuing his read on her to losing confidence in it, or his hedginess about who should die at the end of yesterday, or even the way he questioned me about why i was interrogating kate at the end of d3

might be a while yet but i hope ur still around in an hour or so

potentialsheltervet wrote: ↑Fri May 12, 2023 9:15 pm @staypositivefriend Thoughts on sig?

hold that thought for a bit, doing some analysis now

h-hewwo?

if im still alive (which i perceive as being fairly likely atm) when the night ends then im going to prioritize doing a Trust Fall and Distrust Fall and go from there

potentialsheltervet wrote: ↑Fri May 12, 2023 2:08 pm I don't see why we should wait around for the NK to be thinking, analyzing, considering. I think it's clear people in the POE like myself, Dennis, etc. will be spared. Just sitting and doing nothing is, imo, just giving the last goon a breather.

ftr i agree, but i made a point to take a breather after that flip because i wanted to come back refreshed and with a new perspective. didn't really feel any motivation to continue solving after that happened

it must feel weird to kill ur own dad

hm

okay

i think the funniest outcome from this is that dennis actually is mafia and the game ends

Lemonfairy wrote: ↑Thu May 11, 2023 5:03 pm pyxxy and SPF are w/w
they planned this together

that EOD was outing

it's over for us

genuine accident on my part. sorry if that leads to you dying today dennis

ftr i was intending to come back on and vote sixstrings

i thought we had another hour, no?

wait why did the poll close an hour early??

im considering just putting my vote back on sixstrings because im not really brave enough to flashwagon anyone else right now

who is ur top sr rn pyxxy?

pyxxy wrote: ↑Thu May 11, 2023 4:12 pm
pyxxy wrote: ↑Thu May 11, 2023 4:03 pm
Dennis wrote: ↑Thu May 11, 2023 3:47 pm Dude the wolf is just gonna be something annoying like sig literally watch this happen
sig has not left my radar

I did almost push us to vote sleep today

scummy af but I was just like, maybe we learn more from who the last scum decides to kill, since there's no consensus towncore atm (imo? or am I wrong? tell me who you think is towncore rn :3)
Actually I'm going to make that last part an official question for the thread ™:

Who do you have as towncore/townlock/firmly town right now, if anyone?

A possible venn diagram with:

If we're wrong today, who do you think the night kill will be?

lemonfairy, dennis, ted neon roughly in that order

psv is technically in my POE but she felt towny when i was interacting with her in realtime last night and i think her specific defense of falcon would be a super uncanny angle for her to take if she was partners

so idk

not opposed to exploring different options today but i dont think i could vote psv in good conscience

@sig - are you here rn? i want to chat

idk i dont think i could really justify voting PSV right now

[VOTE: unvote] aubergine

hmmmm

SixStrings wrote: ↑Thu May 11, 2023 3:46 pm
staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Thu May 11, 2023 3:35 pm
SixStrings wrote: ↑Thu May 11, 2023 10:04 am
staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Wed May 10, 2023 11:51 pm
SixStrings wrote: ↑Wed May 10, 2023 11:41 pm
staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Wed May 10, 2023 10:19 pm
potentialsheltervet wrote: ↑Wed May 10, 2023 10:16 pm Has six responded to the accusation that he's too aware of thread state? I've seen him around a bit but I don't think I've seen him respond to that specifically.
I do also think he's trying to soft his flavor with his PFP but that's pretty weak reasoning to not vote there.
lol this is kinda a towny thought
What does is mean to be too aware of thread state?
it's what i explained in this post here:

staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Wed May 10, 2023 10:04 pm
staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Tue May 09, 2023 2:22 pm it ....could be sixstrings. one thing that does make me worried about him is actually just how consensus-y/"agreeable" his reads were when he checked into the thread, even though he is clearly absent. i would expect a villager who is struggling to play or keep up with the game to not have many confident reads, but sixstrings had a readslist that was almost entirely in agreement with the consensus, which could indicate that he was being fed information by this team - this is the exact tell that i used to catch beggbow wayyy back in season 7 game 6
^^and ftr, this is still the main reason why i think it might be sixstrings, and why i haven't taken him out of my POE in spite of him having some posts that show a towny lack of self awareness

the lack of self awareness paired with sixstrings having extremely accurate, consensus, and good reas doesn't really align with how i would expect someone struggling with the game to play. if sixstrings is town then frankly i think his reads would probably just be a lot messier than they have been. his reads are good enough but im not sure i see much of a solving process behind them, which indicates to me that he might be playing with TMI
the main reason why i'm concerned about you being mafia is because in spite of the fact that you have barely been invested in this game (from what i can tell), your reads have been extremely aligned with the consensus and have shifted in alignment with the threadstate, which makes me worry that you are playing from a position of perfect information and not actually scumhunting
thank you for the response, yes i do often follow the consensus. i spend more time trying to understand the mindset and process of others with more experience. keep in mind that being new means i really don't get the nuances yet. reading wolf behavior doesn't seem as easy reading town; so following the consensus feels like the smarter way until i have a better grasp. This is game 3 for me of anything like this. the closest before would be a game of poker. Hopefully that explains the lack of solving comment.
also thank you for explaining. that perspective does definitely make sense to me, yeah

i guess the thing that confuses me about this explanation is that you are portraying yourself as someone who is just trying to follow the consensus and doesn't seem to grasp the nuances yet, but you are also portraying a high amount of confidence about me being mafia in spite of the fact that me being mafia isn't a consensus among the thread right now

so where is your conviction on me coming from? is it specifically because of kate? and do you see how your claimed lack of self-confidence in your own reads paired with the confidence that you are projecting on me being mafia comes off a little bit contradictory?
I've followed consensus that has followed my wife kate for the past days which has worked out well. I have no idea what the rest of the people chose today to not listen to her. That's the disconnect, i think.

but you aren't just following the consensus - you are specifically projecting a high level of confidence about your read on me being correct, like in this post:

SixStrings wrote: ↑Wed May 10, 2023 11:46 pm it seems staypositivefriend has led a charge against me. Seems that my SPF wolf suspicions are sound, else why lead a charge?

and to be clear, i don't think that it's wolfy for you to follow the consensus, nor do i think it's wolfy for you to think that i'm mafia. the thing that i'm concerned about is the dissonance between you saying: "i have no idea what is going on and i'm just sheeping other people" and you also acting very confident that your scumread has to be corrected

@Dennis - if u had full control over the elimination rn, who would you kill?

tedxtr wrote: ↑Thu May 11, 2023 3:04 pm Pretty much all votes seem bad to me in some way if they’re villas

In a “yeah should’ve seen it but have no clue who to go for” way

Idk what you’re supposed to do in these situations

i don't have a ton of time to do one right now myself, but imo the correct way to approach this situation is a trustfall

who do you have the strongest reasons to townread and why? who is it the hardest to come up with believable reasons to townread?

if anyone feels strongly that we should kill someone that is not sixstrings or dennis then im willing to give it consideration, but if it's coming down btwn dennis and sixstrings (or me) then i'm voting six

fwiw i am unwilling to kill dennis today

SixStrings wrote: ↑Thu May 11, 2023 10:04 am
staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Wed May 10, 2023 11:51 pm
SixStrings wrote: ↑Wed May 10, 2023 11:41 pm
staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Wed May 10, 2023 10:19 pm
potentialsheltervet wrote: ↑Wed May 10, 2023 10:16 pm Has six responded to the accusation that he's too aware of thread state? I've seen him around a bit but I don't think I've seen him respond to that specifically.
I do also think he's trying to soft his flavor with his PFP but that's pretty weak reasoning to not vote there.
lol this is kinda a towny thought
What does is mean to be too aware of thread state?
it's what i explained in this post here:

staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Wed May 10, 2023 10:04 pm
staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Tue May 09, 2023 2:22 pm it ....could be sixstrings. one thing that does make me worried about him is actually just how consensus-y/"agreeable" his reads were when he checked into the thread, even though he is clearly absent. i would expect a villager who is struggling to play or keep up with the game to not have many confident reads, but sixstrings had a readslist that was almost entirely in agreement with the consensus, which could indicate that he was being fed information by this team - this is the exact tell that i used to catch beggbow wayyy back in season 7 game 6
^^and ftr, this is still the main reason why i think it might be sixstrings, and why i haven't taken him out of my POE in spite of him having some posts that show a towny lack of self awareness

the lack of self awareness paired with sixstrings having extremely accurate, consensus, and good reas doesn't really align with how i would expect someone struggling with the game to play. if sixstrings is town then frankly i think his reads would probably just be a lot messier than they have been. his reads are good enough but im not sure i see much of a solving process behind them, which indicates to me that he might be playing with TMI
the main reason why i'm concerned about you being mafia is because in spite of the fact that you have barely been invested in this game (from what i can tell), your reads have been extremely aligned with the consensus and have shifted in alignment with the threadstate, which makes me worry that you are playing from a position of perfect information and not actually scumhunting
thank you for the response, yes i do often follow the consensus. i spend more time trying to understand the mindset and process of others with more experience. keep in mind that being new means i really don't get the nuances yet. reading wolf behavior doesn't seem as easy reading town; so following the consensus feels like the smarter way until i have a better grasp. This is game 3 for me of anything like this. the closest before would be a game of poker. Hopefully that explains the lack of solving comment.

also thank you for explaining. that perspective does definitely make sense to me, yeah

i guess the thing that confuses me about this explanation is that you are portraying yourself as someone who is just trying to follow the consensus and doesn't seem to grasp the nuances yet, but you are also portraying a high amount of confidence about me being mafia in spite of the fact that me being mafia isn't a consensus among the thread right now

so where is your conviction on me coming from? is it specifically because of kate? and do you see how your claimed lack of self-confidence in your own reads paired with the confidence that you are projecting on me being mafia comes off a little bit contradictory?

tedxtr wrote: ↑Thu May 11, 2023 2:35 pm i’ll be honest, i don’t know how good i feel with a six lunch

don’t really like how people came to voting him and i’m nowhere near as confident as i was on falcon

will prob feel bad too if i mislunch him his first time when he voted a wolf but uhh

is there anyone else you want to kill today?

idk how much ill be around before the deadline but ill try my best

Neon wrote: ↑Thu May 11, 2023 2:21 am Hmmm. I'm intrigued by spf passing six but being worried about his flip. Could be tmi of his alignment...*shrugs*

well me not being confident is specifically because i dont have tmi

SixStrings wrote: ↑Wed May 10, 2023 11:46 pm it seems staypositivefriend has led a charge against me. Seems that my SPF wolf suspicions are sound, else why lead a charge?

can't say that i love this reaction, since i made it clear that i'm not really that confident you're mafia in the first place:

staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Wed May 10, 2023 10:05 pm but i'm not gonna try to convince you that sixstrings is mafia, cause i'm not really that confident in the first place. i just have the least reasons to townread him out of everyone here, i think he has played "too perfectly" in spite of barely seeming to pay attention to the game, and i think his hand would have been forced into bussing/distancing from falcon yesterday, particularly with the context of falcon giving up and seeming to not try to save himself. he fits more cleanly as a wolf than p much any other name in this list

but i do think you make the most sense as mafia right now, and it's important to be open about that. that is how the game works

SixStrings wrote: ↑Wed May 10, 2023 11:41 pm
staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Wed May 10, 2023 10:19 pm
potentialsheltervet wrote: ↑Wed May 10, 2023 10:16 pm Has six responded to the accusation that he's too aware of thread state? I've seen him around a bit but I don't think I've seen him respond to that specifically.
I do also think he's trying to soft his flavor with his PFP but that's pretty weak reasoning to not vote there.
lol this is kinda a towny thought
What does is mean to be too aware of thread state?

it's what i explained in this post here:

staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Wed May 10, 2023 10:04 pm
staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Tue May 09, 2023 2:22 pm it ....could be sixstrings. one thing that does make me worried about him is actually just how consensus-y/"agreeable" his reads were when he checked into the thread, even though he is clearly absent. i would expect a villager who is struggling to play or keep up with the game to not have many confident reads, but sixstrings had a readslist that was almost entirely in agreement with the consensus, which could indicate that he was being fed information by this team - this is the exact tell that i used to catch beggbow wayyy back in season 7 game 6
^^and ftr, this is still the main reason why i think it might be sixstrings, and why i haven't taken him out of my POE in spite of him having some posts that show a towny lack of self awareness

the lack of self awareness paired with sixstrings having extremely accurate, consensus, and good reas doesn't really align with how i would expect someone struggling with the game to play. if sixstrings is town then frankly i think his reads would probably just be a lot messier than they have been. his reads are good enough but im not sure i see much of a solving process behind them, which indicates to me that he might be playing with TMI

the main reason why i'm concerned about you being mafia is because in spite of the fact that you have barely been invested in this game (from what i can tell), your reads have been extremely aligned with the consensus and have shifted in alignment with the threadstate, which makes me worry that you are playing from a position of perfect information and not actually scumhunting

im gay

will u vote sixstrings with me?

Lemonfairy wrote: ↑Wed May 10, 2023 10:36 pm
staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Wed May 10, 2023 10:18 pm
potentialsheltervet wrote: ↑Wed May 10, 2023 10:10 pm
staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Wed May 10, 2023 9:27 pm
potentialsheltervet wrote: ↑Wed May 10, 2023 7:34 pm @Neon You still think it's me? What kind of mental gymnastics are you doing to connect me and falcon as partners?
do u think that u and falcon are obviously not partners? why should i be clearing u rn?

and why do u think it's neon?
Falcon sheeped Neon by voting me D1 and D2. It's not impossible play for paired scum, but it's not optimal in a world where we just lost Seanzie.
Neon I'm not confident on but she was defending falcon, which I think is a good play given the early loss of Seanzie, throughout D2. She jumped on the Seanzie train pretty late.
I see what people are saying about her hellbus meta but she makes some sense as the last scum to me.
well if i wanted to counter this argument, i would say:

1. falcon didn't actually push you that hard in the first place. in fact, he said that you giving links to your mafia games on d2 was towny, and then he said he thought you weren't mafia with his main scumread (kate) at the end of d2

2. it makes sense for falcon to distance from his partner if he perceived himself as a likely elimination, and given the way that he was playing, it seems he did perceive himself that way

the actual reason why i think that you might be town is because the way you defended falcon doesn't strike me as the way that a wolf would treat falcon yesterday, and i think they would want to create distance from him instead of going out of their way to call him towny

i feel exactly the same way about neon, too. it's not about her having a meta of "hellbussing" (which i dont rly care about), it's more that her overall defense of falcon felt like it lacks TMI of falcon's alignment and is a weird angle for a wolf to take
while you're talking about this I want to say I remembered PSV agreeing with me on Ted/falcon being likely not w/w and convincing Kate that it wasn't a likely team and in hindsight, that's not something scum would want to do, especially when both wagons were at 2/2

i agree. i'm not really interested in voting PSV today, especially after this last page

Lemonfairy wrote: ↑Wed May 10, 2023 10:29 pm
potentialsheltervet wrote: ↑Wed May 10, 2023 10:20 pm
staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Wed May 10, 2023 10:18 pm
Lemonfairy wrote: ↑Wed May 10, 2023 10:14 pm
staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Wed May 10, 2023 10:11 pm
Lemonfairy wrote: ↑Wed May 10, 2023 10:10 pm
staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Wed May 10, 2023 10:02 pm good question

i don't think that it's you

i don't think that it's neon

i don't think that it's ted

i can understand the paranoia around dennis but i don't think that it's him right now either. dennis does not strike me as the type of wolf who would want to hardbus both of his partners and try to sol oendgame, and he feels significantly more pure and explotary to me than the wolfgame i just saw from him like 4 months ago. i actually don't have him in my POE right now at all

to be blunt i've just been trying to figure out which name in psv, pyxxy, sig, and sixstrings i should hardclear so that i can create a game winning legacy if i get eliminated today

i'm leaning on just removing sig from that pool - i dont think that his play aligns with the mindset of a wolf who would want to hardbus and solo endgame (similar to my read on dennis), and i think he's been getting townier with each dayphase. my original concern about him was more his lack of posting than anything, but he has been getting consistently townier with each dayphase as he has been posting more/getting a stronger presence

so that leaves psv, pyxxy, sixstrings, and myself. am i happy with that being the game winning POE? maybe.

i think that psv "fits" as a partner to falcon in a very level 0 way but it's not actually how i expect W/W interaction to play out in most circumstances, and i think psv defended falcon in a needlessly hard way if she was actually wolfing with him, esp since falcon had given up and i wouldn't rly expect the final wolf to care about defending him

it could be pyxxy but any case i could even come up with against them is more: "i dont townread them as strongly as the other players and they dont have any interactions i have clearing", as opposed to anything they have done that i find genuinely wolf indicative

sixstrings............shrug. it's easy to conf bias and say that it's just him and that my reasons to townread him aren't as good as my reasons to townread everyone else (which is true!), but sometimes he does say stuff that make me feel like he is disconnected from the gamestate in a town indicative way

idk. being honest with you, i kind of think it might just be sixstrings
I want to say something like "you're just making the easiest push" but I get pocketed by posts like this
my rebuttal is that the easiest push has been correct for this entire game so far. i don't care if a push is easy, i just care if it's correct
Seanzie was not an easy push, I don't think
it was sudden
i want to say that he was the easiest push throughout a lot of d1 but i dont remember if this is actually true bcuz d1 feels like forever ago
D1 was kinda a crapshoot I think, when I came back to thread and was catching up I was shocked to see how many votes were on Seanzie
still think there probably should be 1 scum on there

i disagree, and it's exactly because the seanzie wagon happened spontaneously over roughly the course of an ~hour (if memory serves), and it is entirely possible that seanzie's partners were just not in the thread at the time. we know for a fact that falcon wasn't

potentialsheltervet wrote: ↑Tue May 09, 2023 6:17 pm We have four tries, so I guess Dennis, pyxxy, SPF, six in the pool but not equally.

@potentialsheltervet -

im a bit confused by your current view of the game because you listed this four person POE of me/dennis/pyyxy/six, but then included neon shortly after

so what is your current POE? is it those four names + neon? how would u order that POE rn?

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