The Syndicate

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Wed May 19, 2021 5:49 pm

staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Wed May 19, 2021 5:26 pm who's the last wolf, TSP?

I gave up

nice

i feel like i throgouhly debunked every element of that post to the extent that i dont understand how you could still reasonably have it as the foundation for your read

but im not going to change your mind in the next 10 minutes if ive been unable to change it over the last 48+ hours. i feel like i'm obviously town. i feel like i am spewed clear by invicitus in an undeniable way. if you don't see it, then w/e

who's the last wolf, TSP?

i would usually say that the apathy of this gamestate implies that the village is in a bad position, but i think the apathy here is more justifiable ​in light of two wolves being caught back to back and a playerlist full of people who generally feel villager

TSP might be the last wolf, and i'm hopeful that he is. but if he's not, and if i get shot tonight, then i would kindly ask everyone here to really kick things into gear and communicate and listen to one another as much as you can. this game is still winnable even in a world where me/TSP are villagers, but it's gonna take some elbow grease from the remaining rest of the town to figure things out

Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Wed May 19, 2021 5:12 pm

staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Wed May 19, 2021 5:06 pm

Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Wed May 19, 2021 4:55 pm My reason for reading spf town may not be that impressive. She hasn't been that impressive. She flat out ignored my reasons for suspecting Alison and only focused on Marmot. It wasn't impressive.

don't know if i would call it "ignoring" per se - there was already consensus suspicion against alison and quite literally every player in this game was worried about her slot. i didn't feel the need to participate in conversations discussing my personal read on her when i knew that her slot was dead regardless of my input, and regardless of how valid or invalid your point was

so when i put it that way, i suppose i did ~ignore~ your point against her, but it was because i already perceived her slot as 100% doomed

But why were you not interested in my point at all? I spent time developing it and explaining it, and I directly asked for feedback. I find it kind of strange that you ignored it tbh. But everyone did. So maybe it was one of those things that made perfect sense to me which I fail to relay.

And also, ok, the slot is doomed. Is that good? If so, why not doom it more? And if it's doomed but you don't think it should be, why not defend? Idk. I didn't particularly care for you just not commenting.

Anyway. Tony may flip scum and then we good.

honestly? i probably just wasn't in the mood - i recall that i was fairly grumpy throughout d2 and a little irked by the gamestate, and as such, i was less inclined to feel like engaging with other people, even though engaging with you would have probably helped create the gamestate that i wanted in the first place :P

i had the alison slot firmly in my POE and i only felt comfortable taking her out of it if jagged significantly towntold to me - i watched his analysis with a close eye yesterday to see if that would happen, and it never did. my overall thoughts on the slot were: "probably scum", but i was keeping my cards held close to my chest and seeing where his solving went naturally

Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Wed May 19, 2021 4:55 pm My reason for reading spf town may not be that impressive. She hasn't been that impressive. She flat out ignored my reasons for suspecting Alison and only focused on Marmot. It wasn't impressive.

don't know if i would call it "ignoring" per se - there was already consensus suspicion against alison and quite literally every player in this game was worried about her slot. i didn't feel the need to participate in conversations discussing my personal read on her when i knew that her slot was dead regardless of my input, and regardless of how valid or invalid your point was

so when i put it that way, i suppose i did ~ignore~ your point against her, but it was because i already perceived her slot as 100% doomed

Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Wed May 19, 2021 4:49 pm

staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Tue May 18, 2021 10:27 pmdyslexicon: i feel like i should townread dizzy more than i do - i think that most of my concern w/him stems from a place of paranoia and from a place of knowing that he is capable of playing a solid wolf game. dizzy has played this game in the exact way that i would play it if i was a wolf in this setup - he heavily distanced from the alison slot while (attempting to) prop up the invicitus slot as a villager, and taking that approach as a wolf would simply be smart scum strategy. as such, i find it difficult to feel comfortable clearing dizzy based solely on the logic of: "he hardpushed on alison", but i do feel that occam's razor points to his slot being a villager. his posts throughout the entirety of d1 were very villagery and i like that he continually hounded me (and others) to share our takes on alison as well

dizzy is a townlean, but he's my current favorite tinfoil if this game is not as easy as it appears

nanook: i'm of a couple different minds about nanook - i actually dont feel that any of his interactions with the flipped wolves are clearing, even though they generally reflect well on him. that said, i essentially had a soul townread on nanook throughout d1/d2, and that stemmed from the fact that he was one of the top posters in the game in spite of giving him plenty of slank cover to ignore the thread. nanook, as a wolf, had the perfect "out" to stop participating, but he chose to get into a fairly aggressive fight w/koba, he chose to publicly shade jagged for not analyzing him quickly enough, he has made choices that, in general, do not feel reminiscent of someone who is playing with a wolf mindset

my soul still says that nanook is town, but i don't feel that my logic that being the case is equally as strong. make of that what you will

Ok this. Regarding me: It's not that I did those things, it's how I did it. It should not be hard to read me and Invictius's interaction and understand that this is v/w. It's blatant pocketing. In fact, it's much how we work when we are in fact both town, and Invictius spent energy trying to make it seem that way to me. He straight up pocketed me and yes, I got fooled. I didn't think he'd be this calm as scum. My bad. It's also the way I went for Alison and how. I had an epiphany about it on D2 relating to how I didn't realise Invictius was Plat and how Alison reacted to that. And since nobody has brought that up (not even JJJ when he iso'd my interaction with Invictius - which was telling!), I'll just do it now - I didn't even know that Invictius was Plat (as I know him as). When asked if I knew him, I said no until I could recognise who he was. Sure, you can say wifom, but Occam's razor bishes. So you can read what the interaction entails and how they are, instead of say "that is how I would have played it, technically", cause that doesn't do much for you. It's actually pretty shady. Bad, spf, bad.

What do you think about Nanook's derps? Genuine or no?

all of the reasons that you listed in this post are the reason why i townread you, and why i feel that occam's razor points to you being a villager. i have simply lacked the underlying confidence that you are ~definitely~ a villager that many other players in this game have, and that is solely because i am aware that you have an extremely solid scum game, and i have not felt that you have been significantly towny within the last dayphase or so even though i think your d1 reflects well on you

im not calling you scum, but i am in the position of knowing that if TSP flips villager, there is ~definitely~ a deepwolf. there are a lot of solid reasons to townread everyone in this game besides TSP, so a TSP town world implies a world where you would need to be scrutinized more carefully - i think that you are more likely town than not, but i also think that you will need to really kick your solving/effort into gear to townclear yourself if the game goes on after me and TSP's death

i believe that nanook's derps were genuine. i soulread him as a villager even though most of the reasons are tonal

what does your POE look like, dizzy?

same

what can i do to convince you that im town with the time that we have left, marmot? i'm hopeful that TSP is the remaining scum, but i'm not exactly optimistic that this game is as easy as it appears on a surface level, nor do i think the people in this game are particularly well equipped to win in the event that the scum is not exactly in TSP/me

question that i would like everyone to answer:

if TSP is not the final mafia, who is?

brief thoughts on everyone here:

koba/syn: https://www.mafiathesyndicate.com/viewt ... 62#p786162

https://www.mafiathesyndicate.com/viewt ... 93#p786193

^^i'm leaning on the koba/syn slot being a villager primarily because of these posts. the second post is interesting to me because koba shows a willingness to wagon alison but then goes back on that idea within the same post - in theory, i would find this wolfy, but i think that it's a villagery look when contrasted with the fact that koba is the one who brought up alison's inactivity in the first place. if koba is a wolf and they brought up alison's activity as a way to distance/shade them, why does koba fall back like that when the actual possibility of alison being wagoned comes up? my instinct tells me that koba would have tried harder to dissociate themselves and alison if they were going for a ~bussing~ strategy, and if they weren't going for a bussing strategy, then the first post i linked here is wholly unnecessary for koba to make as a wolf

that, paired with syn's posts feeling generally villagery today, has me lean on the slot just being town

dyslexicon: i feel like i should townread dizzy more than i do - i think that most of my concern w/him stems from a place of paranoia and from a place of knowing that he is capable of playing a solid wolf game. dizzy has played this game in the exact way that i would play it if i was a wolf in this setup - he heavily distanced from the alison slot while (attempting to) prop up the invicitus slot as a villager, and taking that approach as a wolf would simply be smart scum strategy. as such, i find it difficult to feel comfortable clearing dizzy based solely on the logic of: "he hardpushed on alison", but i do feel that occam's razor points to his slot being a villager. his posts throughout the entirety of d1 were very villagery and i like that he continually hounded me (and others) to share our takes on alison as well

dizzy is a townlean, but he's my current favorite tinfoil if this game is not as easy as it appears

hollowkatt: https://www.mafiathesyndicate.com/viewt ... 83#p786683

^^i think this entire exchange reflects fairly well on HK. if HK was a wolf that intended to hardbus his partner that (at the time) had virtually zero negative attention on him, i get the impression that he and invicitus would make more of a show out of it, but their interactions w/each other are pretty bland, and it felt to me like invicitus wanted to brush off and ignore HK more than he wanted to play up their interactions

i dont find HK tonally villagery, and i think that's because there is such a difference btwn his tone in this game and his usual tone that i am struggling to not have some concerns about it, but i do think that this slot is town

long con: i wish that LC posted more - it would make it a lot easier for me to get a firm grasp on his alignment. it is indisputable that invicitus tried to steer the chop onto the long con wagon toward the end of d1, and i think it's actually a good thing that there are zero interactions btwn invictius and long con on d1. there is no theatre, no aggressive back and forth, just invicitus trying to steer the chop onto long con. when i pair that with the fact that long con's comments yesterday appeared to genuinely add to jagged's frustration with being unheard, i feel that this slot is almost certainly a villager too. would probably not re-evaluate until f5

nanook: i'm of a couple different minds about nanook - i actually dont feel that any of his interactions with the flipped wolves are clearing, even though they generally reflect well on him. that said, i essentially had a soul townread on nanook throughout d1/d2, and that stemmed from the fact that he was one of the top posters in the game in spite of giving him plenty of slank cover to ignore the thread. nanook, as a wolf, had the perfect "out" to stop participating, but he chose to get into a fairly aggressive fight w/koba, he chose to publicly shade jagged for not analyzing him quickly enough, he has made choices that, in general, do not feel reminiscent of someone who is playing with a wolf mindset

my soul still says that nanook is town, but i don't feel that my logic that being the case is equally as strong. make of that what you will

tonystarkprime: i mean........shrug. there's not much to say here - TSP's interactions w/the flipped wolves are practically non-existent and jagged's treatment of him was middling at best

Marmot wrote: ↑Mon May 17, 2021 8:40 pm Me: I suspect spf, we should resolve her
SPF: wtf! No way! I'm blatant obvious town. Never yeet me

Also me: Dk/Syn have basically spewed themselves town
Syn: Wtf! Resolve me this instant! Vig me if you have to. I won't stand to be taken to F3

the three of us should have a sitcom

Syn wrote: ↑Mon May 17, 2021 7:48 pm

hollowkatt wrote: ↑Mon May 17, 2021 7:41 pm marmot's just confirmed town, SPF I think has to be town b/c if the team was JJJ/SPF they're counting on marmot somehow not shooting at either of them? Also I like SPFs post where she lays out the JJJ posts that she'd have made if she were wolfing.
Kinda like Syn for his acceptance of being POE and the timeline post, which is townie b/c it exists, wolf Syn has no reason to say that

Everyone else getting re-evaluated today, probably starting with TSP b/c I remember his posts the least.

It just makes sense to resolve my slot, tbh. I have the least connection to either side. Even JJJ in his fake casing couldn't come up with anything more than "Well, the dk/Syn slot exists." So while there isn't a specific reason to suspect me immediately, that changes the longer I'm alive. Marmot using his shot on me means there's no possible "Maybe it's just Syn" case D4 or beyond.

i find this post villagery

Marmot wrote: ↑Mon May 17, 2021 7:52 pm

staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Mon May 17, 2021 7:50 pm

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Sun May 16, 2021 5:20 pm I’m being pulled away and may not be back by the deadline. I suggest shooting Tony.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Sun May 16, 2021 6:16 pm Dizzy, I’ve been treated like a foregone conclusion by at least four people. You’re not the only one.

Don’t waste a vig shot on me. I am town, and I can only hope folks will be ready to listen next time. This thread is a case study in intra-town toxicity, and it will be an even bigger problem whenever I’m dead. Too many folks are not at all ready to contend with this game after I flip despite my best efforts to encourage broader solving. It doesn’t have to be that way, and we can be better. Give me the dang chance and I can do whatever I can to make y’all listen.

Also Nanook’s posts suck and I’ve not seen any convincing sell that he’s town. If not Tony shoot him.

does jagged make these posts if his partner is tony?

What do you think?

i would think that the first post from jagged reflects well on tony if the second post didn't exist. with the existence of that second post, it feels like jagged is trying to have it both ways - dissociating himself from tony while still providing him with a way to push for someone else to be shot. i would not be able to comfortably rule it out as partner interaction, but i was interested in hearing other takes

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Sun May 16, 2021 5:20 pm I’m being pulled away and may not be back by the deadline. I suggest shooting Tony.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Sun May 16, 2021 6:16 pm Dizzy, I’ve been treated like a foregone conclusion by at least four people. You’re not the only one.

Don’t waste a vig shot on me. I am town, and I can only hope folks will be ready to listen next time. This thread is a case study in intra-town toxicity, and it will be an even bigger problem whenever I’m dead. Too many folks are not at all ready to contend with this game after I flip despite my best efforts to encourage broader solving. It doesn’t have to be that way, and we can be better. Give me the dang chance and I can do whatever I can to make y’all listen.

Also Nanook’s posts suck and I’ve not seen any convincing sell that he’s town. If not Tony shoot him.

does jagged make these posts if his partner is tony?

Marmot wrote: ↑Mon May 17, 2021 7:25 pm Also, I do have a reason that SPF could be town. If the scum team was exactly SPF/JJJ, I would've expected them to kill me instead last night to prevent the town from getting more KP in reducing their numbers. The fact that they didn't does make me think that they thought I was gonna shoot SPF, and decided to let me murder a townie with my first shot.

for your consideration, something i noticed earlier is that it felt kinda like jagged was trying to pit us against each other toward the middle of yesterday:

https://www.mafiathesyndicate.com/viewt ... 85#p788685

https://www.mafiathesyndicate.com/viewt ... 55#p789055

https://www.mafiathesyndicate.com/viewt ... 05#p789105

^^these are all posts i would make if i was a wolf and i wanted to subtly instigate arguments in the thread between a town v town dynamic. these questions from jagged feel very pointed - i think he wanted us to get trapped in a spiral of arguing with each other and fos'ing each other as a way to cause as much discordance in the village as he possibly could

(blaze it)

how do we think that jagged would treat his partner in this position?

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Sun May 16, 2021 2:01 pm

NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Sat May 15, 2021 11:45 pm Yes but you said my name a bunch and that's close enough

I just determined that as of your gripe, I had said your name exactly three times in this thread, twice as tangential mentions when I was discussing DK and once as an ISO link. What are you talking about?

this, in conjunction with jagged floating nanook's name as a probable slot at the end of yesterday, pushes me into feeling like nanook is a villager

i got the sense yesterday that jagged ~needed~ to keep nanook in his POE and that he had a vested interest in making sure that nanook would remain a viable chop option - his treatment of nanook in general reeked of someone with a specific agenda, and i'm inclined to think that the agenda was to create enough suspicion against nanook to get him mischopped - a mischop that was probably needed for jagged and his team to win the game

wont ride or die w/this read until i look deeper, but at first glance, i think that jagged's interactions with nanook reflect well on nanook

the fact that im not lock town after invicitus outed himself because of my claim is just....hard for me to grasp. it is truly confusing to me. how do we live in a world where i prevented invictius from doing the sole thing that he intended to do (finding the vilgilante), and allowed the vigilante to hide for as long as they wanted, but i'm still not perceived as blatantly town?

how do we live in a world where i did absolutely nothing to shield alison from being in the POE at any point (and no, the exchange with gavial doesn't count) and even outright voiced suspicion against her slot, only for it to be perceived as me having high partner equity with alison?

i dont get it! but this will be the one and only time today that i intend to complain about it

Marmot wrote: ↑Mon May 17, 2021 6:11 pm [VOTE: SPF] aubergine


I still believe she's the final wolf.

cool, nice shot! it looks like the village has more than enough information to pull a victory out of this game as long as we do some work and make sure that we all communicate

i'm gonna admit that i've been struggling in games lately to not care about peoples push on me, regardless of what their reasoning is. your push on me in this game feels uniquely distracting to me because i feel like i should be cleared and spewed as a villager on multiple levels (by making ivicitus hardclaim, by clearly not being partnered with jagged).

so, it's hard for me to resist the temptation to just spend the entirety of today aggressively telling you why you're wrong and why you should be reading me as blatant town if you think critically about the game for more than 5 seconds

even so, i don't wanna be aggressive, and i don't wanna create a negative environment in a game that should be an easy villager win even in a world where i ~do~ get mischopped. so, i will try my best to focus on simply finding the last wolf today

that said, i would ask you to keep an open mind about me too. the reason i have so much conviction about your push on me is because i feel like i should be BLATANTLY spewed town in a million different directions, and i want to convince you to see that if you're capable of having your mind changed today

Marmot wrote: ↑Sun May 16, 2021 5:14 pm

staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Sun May 16, 2021 5:04 pm @Marmot - in my humble opinion, you need to apply occam's razor to my slot. it is possible that there exists a world where i did an elaborate fakeclaim with invictus for the purpose of bussing and getting myself towncred, but the option that requires the least amount of assumptions is that me and invicitus are not aligned with each other. i have been confused by how willing you are to theorize that me and invictus are doing theatre without being equally willing to theorize the obvious possibility that we are simply not teamed with each other

it should also be obvious to you by this point that me and jagged aren't teamed - there is no world where i get strategic benefit out of my current treatment of jagged if we are wolves together. i am not townreading him or protecting him but i'm also not really pushing for him to be shot - he's just broadly ~in~ my POE. this is a position where wolves often put their partners, yes, but i'm a wolf that is capable of reading a room and knowing when a slot is going to die sooner than later, and my focus as a wolf that is teamed w/jagged would be to dissociate jagged and myself as much as possible by bussing, ~or~ i would try to protect him and change the current gamestate. my middling, passive approach to his slot is the worst strategic move that i could make as a wolf, and i hope that congress of vienna showed to you that my wolfgame is not as tepid as you seem to be implying with that read

if your beef with me is simply the fact that i fos'd you and pressured you earlier today, then that's something that you will simply have to reckon with. i had concerns about you, those concerns were reasonable, and i tried to work with you to reach common ground

I fail to see why this should be true while this is also true.

Also a POE candidate is a great vig choice, especially one which was at the time AFK, I think that town SPF would agree. Also per this point, if Alison/JJJ and Invictus are wolves, their teammate would look around the room and see one being outed and yeeted, and the other being the primary vig option. That's a terrible gamestate for the wolves to be in.

I think if you're town, you could recognize that Alison was, at the time, a great vig option.

the answer to why both of these things are true is contained within the post that you're quoting. wolves have a tendency to broadly shade their partners without pushing on them, but in this specific context, it would be an extremely stupid strategy for me to treat jagged in the way that i have if we were partnered together. it would be a treatment that would give me no towncred in the slightest from a jagged scum flip while also doing absolutely nothing to change the direction of jagged inevitably getting killed

also, you are hilariously overstating the way that i reacted to gavial's suggestion that alison should be shot. this is the exchange:

staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Fri May 14, 2021 8:23 pm

Gavial wrote: ↑Fri May 14, 2021 8:23 pm

staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Fri May 14, 2021 8:22 pm well w/e, i don't care if this dude wants to fish my role out. i CC vig. i did not shoot last night

you can go into anti-spew now

You shoot Alison tonight?
I track PoE?

i'd like to give alison some more time to talk before i decide if she should be POE'd or not, but i'm fine with us settling on a shot by the end of the day

gavial did not ask me: "do you think that alison is a good potential shot for tonight?", or "what are your thoughts about alison?".

gavial asked me: "you shoot alison tonight?". i was not going to take a definitive stance on shooting a player that had been absent from the thread due to health issues without allowing her the opportunity to post more, and furthermore, there would be NO point in replying like this as a wolf, because i'm not a real vigilante and my opinion on the shot did not matter at that point! there is NOTHING in this post that is protecting alison, and i am astounded that you even think that this is an example of me "not agreeing" that alison was a good shot

if i get shot tonight, then i literally have no regrets, and i would do it the exact same way if i could do it all over again. i got the wolf to hard confirm themselves, and in a perfect world, the mafia would have no idea who the vigilante is right now

@Marmot - in my humble opinion, you need to apply occam's razor to my slot. it is possible that there exists a world where i did an elaborate fakeclaim with invictus for the purpose of bussing and getting myself towncred, but the option that requires the least amount of assumptions is that me and invicitus are not aligned with each other. i have been confused by how willing you are to theorize that me and invictus are doing theatre without being equally willing to theorize the obvious possibility that we are simply not teamed with each other

it should also be obvious to you by this point that me and jagged aren't teamed - there is no world where i get strategic benefit out of my current treatment of jagged if we are wolves together. i am not townreading him or protecting him but i'm also not really pushing for him to be shot - he's just broadly ~in~ my POE. this is a position where wolves often put their partners, yes, but i'm a wolf that is capable of reading a room and knowing when a slot is going to die sooner than later, and my focus as a wolf that is teamed w/jagged would be to dissociate jagged and myself as much as possible by bussing, ~or~ i would try to protect him and change the current gamestate. my middling, passive approach to his slot is the worst strategic move that i could make as a wolf, and i hope that congress of vienna showed to you that my wolfgame is not as tepid as you seem to be implying with that read

if your beef with me is simply the fact that i fos'd you and pressured you earlier today, then that's something that you will simply have to reckon with. i had concerns about you, those concerns were reasonable, and i tried to work with you to reach common ground

i will end today w/a vote on myself as an act of protest!

gonna reiterate again that my approach to solving today has been based on the idea that i will get another 48 hours to scumhunt tomorrow - these reads are underdeveloped but i feel pressed to take some kind of stance before the end of the day in light of marmot's claim and his intent to shoot me

i recall that when i bussed long con in grasslands mafia a long time ago, we made a point of making theatre out of it and getting people to dissociate us as a team. that makes the fact that long con barely interacted with or responded to invicitus's suspicions reflect somewhat well on long con, IMO. i don't feel that long con is out of his wolfrange based on my parsing of his ISO, but i think the most simple explanation is that he is a villager, and i personally wouldn't touch there until later in the game if the POE has dwindled down

i feel the same way about hollowkatt - it is possible to envision a world where HK/invict committed to a hardbus wifom extravaganza, but the answer that requires the least amount of assumptions is simply that hollowkatt is a villager

if nanook is a wolf, i'm not getting there in the next hour. i feel that there is a specific interaction between invict, koba, nanook, and myself in the middle of d1 that suggests that nanook could be a spewed villager, and i have felt that nanook's posting in general is villagery. this seems to be a fairly contentious slot, so i will make a point of ISO'ing nanook and settling on a read on him if i'm alive tomorrow. at the moment, i'm leaning on him being a villager

marmot is the vig

gavial is the tracker

if all of those names are villagers, that means the wolves are in:

TSP/jaggedjimmyjay/dizzy/syn

i'm not sure how i feel about that pool of names - i maintain my feeling that dizzy had a very villagery d1 and he would not be my first shot of choice, but i also feel that his reaction to marmot wanting to shoot me was oddly opportunistic. it was out of character for dizzy to spend the entirety of this game reiterating that i was a fairly comfortable townread of his, only to react to marmot outing himself and threatening to shoot me by saying: "yeah! i can see it!". that said, i'm not sure how much of this read is being influenced by the fact that it has to do with dizzy scumreading ~me~, but his read on me did a turnaround that i am struggling to understand coming from a villager POV

most of TSP's posts have been fairly lukewarm to me - he is a slot that will probably inevitably get mischopped in the event that he is a villager, and i dont think it's a bad idea to resolve his slot tonight

continuing to withhold judgement about jagged's slot until i see what his overall view of the game looks like - his analysis has been agreeable so far but i haven't really had the chance to go back and forth with him and bounce ideas off of him, and i think that those interactions will make jagged's alignment clearer to me than anything

i thought that both syn and koba's posts were mildly villagery so i actually dont feel totally comfortable having them in this pool. the fact that i feel this way is making me wonder if i'm misreading someone among long con/HK/nanook, but i don't have the time to deduce that right now

Marmot wrote: ↑Sun May 16, 2021 4:37 pm

staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Sun May 16, 2021 4:31 pm

Marmot wrote: ↑Sun May 16, 2021 3:51 pm I believe that the Invcitus claim, SPF counterclaim was an attempt to get the vig role out in the open to talk about, and give SPF a little bit of cred for CCing providing cover. Also, in the event that SPF was a civilian and/or the actual vig, wouldn't Invictus at least try to get her yeeted instead? He gave up far to easily for me to think that's the case.

1. how was i protecting alison from being shot by the vigilante by suggesting to invictus that i would like to give alison more time to post before i made up my mind about her alignment? for one, this would have no impact on how alison was treated by the rest of the thread, let alone the real vigilante, and number two, the intention of that post was simply to add authenticity to my claim and convince invicitus that i wasn't going to immediately retract. i was putting on a show to get him to out himself, and it worked

it's worth noting that i have made no attempts to shield alison from the POE in general - i had very little to say about her on d1 because she only made a handful of posts throughout the entire day, and it was clear to me that her lack of activity was not alignment indicative - there was just ultimately not enough content to read her alignment off of. i have expressed concerns about alison's slot today and i have made no attempts to take them out of the consensus POE or prevent people from wolfreading them

if i'm a wolf and i'm trying to protect the alison slot, then i am doing an objectively bad job at it. if i'm wolf and i'm trying to bus the alison slot, then i'm doing an even worse job at it, since my approach to that slot will give me zero towncred in the event that they do flip wolf

the framing of your wallpost implies that gavial asking me to shoot alison was a factor in me deciding to retract, but the reason why i retracted is because invicitus 100%, objectively outed themselves as a wolf and i did not see the point of continuing to keep up the fakeclaim any longer

Wouldn't a better cover be to stick with the roleclaim and eat the nightkill tonight?

i did consider that, but there were too many factors out of my control for it to be a good idea. i didn't know if the wolves would hit the vigilante or the tracker, and if i was alive the following day with ~no~ claimed vig shot (or even worse, a vig shot that i did not claim to have), it probably would have led to me getting chopped or at least heavily scrutinized

my claim served one obvious utility (making invictus hardclaim wolf) - i didn't feel the need to push it beyond that

anyway, i will spend the time we have left in the day scumhunting to the best of my ability - apologies for losing my temper a bit

Marmot wrote: ↑Sun May 16, 2021 3:51 pm I believe that the Invcitus claim, SPF counterclaim was an attempt to get the vig role out in the open to talk about, and give SPF a little bit of cred for CCing providing cover. Also, in the event that SPF was a civilian and/or the actual vig, wouldn't Invictus at least try to get her yeeted instead? He gave up far to easily for me to think that's the case.

1. how was i protecting alison from being shot by the vigilante by suggesting to invictus that i would like to give alison more time to post before i made up my mind about her alignment? for one, this would have no impact on how alison was treated by the rest of the thread, let alone the real vigilante, and number two, the intention of that post was simply to add authenticity to my claim and convince invicitus that i wasn't going to immediately retract. i was putting on a show to get him to out himself, and it worked

it's worth noting that i have made no attempts to shield alison from the POE in general - i had very little to say about her on d1 because she only made a handful of posts throughout the entire day, and it was clear to me that her lack of activity was not alignment indicative - there was just ultimately not enough content to read her alignment off of. i have expressed concerns about alison's slot today and i have made no attempts to take them out of the consensus POE or prevent people from wolfreading them

if i'm a wolf and i'm trying to protect the alison slot, then i am doing an objectively bad job at it. if i'm wolf and i'm trying to bus the alison slot, then i'm doing an even worse job at it, since my approach to that slot will give me zero towncred in the event that they do flip wolf

the framing of your wallpost implies that gavial asking me to shoot alison was a factor in me deciding to retract, but the reason why i retracted is because invicitus 100%, objectively outed themselves as a wolf and i did not see the point of continuing to keep up the fakeclaim any longer

Marmot wrote: ↑Sun May 16, 2021 4:21 pm

staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Sun May 16, 2021 4:18 pm

Marmot wrote: ↑Sun May 16, 2021 4:16 pm Maybe try a different tactic like telling me who to shoot insteead of calling it absurd spf.

well, i do find it absurd that i gave you the cover to hide as the real vigilante, and you responded to that by outing yourself anyway and then threatening to shoot the person that prevented you from having to out

unfortunately, there might not be enough time for me to form a fully developed worldview of this game within the next hour and a half to convince you not to shoot me, since i was under the impression that i would have another 48 hours to scumhunt tomorrow and that i would not be in any real danger of dying

I'm a town vig. If you're town, just tell me who to shoot, not try to tell me my play is horrendous.

Also, I don't really need any cover at this point, there's another outed PR.

my approach to solving this game has been predicated on the idea that i will have another 48 hours to scumhunt tomorrow. if i do not have those 48 hours, then i do not anticipate that my suggestions for the shot will have a high level of accuracy. there's only a little bit of time left in the day. we will see

Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Sun May 16, 2021 4:19 pm

staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Sun May 16, 2021 4:17 pmthat is correct. he wanted to force the vigilante to out themselves

The vig would never actually have to out there though, be real. His claim was never going to fly.

i have no doubt that invicitus would have been chopped regardless of whether or not i made my fakeclaim, but there absolutely would have continued to be a lingering: "what if.....?" tinfoil about gavial's report being fake if invictus did not promptly out himself upon seeing my claim, and i could see further concern about whether or not the claims should be resolved by night actions. there was enough concern about the legitimacy of gavial's report, and i effectively prevented a situation where marmot would need claim just to definitively shut down the idea that gavial could be fake

Marmot wrote: ↑Sun May 16, 2021 4:18 pm But he didn't stick with it and try to get you yeeted, he just gave up. That's why I think it's wolf theater.

invicitus knew he was outed - his intention with claiming the vigilante was to get the real vigilante to claim. when i claimed, he thought that he had accomplished his goal and then peacefully popped out of the thread

why is it not more simple to believe that invict simply wanted the vig to out, believed that my claim was real, and then gave up, then to believe that the dynamic between us was elaborate wolf theater?

Marmot wrote: ↑Sun May 16, 2021 4:16 pm Maybe try a different tactic like telling me who to shoot insteead of calling it absurd spf.

well, i do find it absurd that i gave you the cover to hide as the real vigilante, and you responded to that by outing yourself anyway and then threatening to shoot the person that prevented you from having to out

unfortunately, there might not be enough time for me to form a fully developed worldview of this game within the next hour and a half to convince you not to shoot me, since i was under the impression that i would have another 48 hours to scumhunt tomorrow and that i would not be in any real danger of dying

Marmot wrote: ↑Sun May 16, 2021 4:15 pm

staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Sun May 16, 2021 4:10 pm

Marmot wrote: ↑Sun May 16, 2021 3:31 pm

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Sun May 16, 2021 2:57 pm @Marmot do you believe SPF's counter claim on Invictus was theater?

Yes

I'm also the real vig and plan on shooting her tonight.

if your reaction to me claiming vigilante and successfully forcing the mafia to hardclaim and out themselves while also providing you ample cover to hide and take shots without the mafia knowing who you are is to turn around and shoot the same person who provided you with that cover, then uh....i don't know what to say

I believe Invictus claimed vig first and you CC'd him no?

that is correct. he wanted to force the vigilante to out themselves

staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Sun May 16, 2021 4:10 pm

Marmot wrote: ↑Sun May 16, 2021 3:31 pm

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Sun May 16, 2021 2:57 pm @Marmot do you believe SPF's counter claim on Invictus was theater?

Yes

I'm also the real vig and plan on shooting her tonight.

if your reaction to me claiming vigilante and successfully forcing the mafia to hardclaim and out themselves while also providing you ample cover to hide and take shots without the mafia knowing who you are is to turn around and shoot the same person who provided you with that cover, then uh....i don't know what to say

like no offense marmot, but i genuinely am having a hard time wrapping my head around that being the play that you want to make. that is absolutely absurd and you'll have to excuse me for being a bit frustrated that you claimed at all, let alone claimed with the intention to shoot the person who literally gave you the cover to hide, lmfao

Marmot wrote: ↑Sun May 16, 2021 3:31 pm

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Sun May 16, 2021 2:57 pm @Marmot do you believe SPF's counter claim on Invictus was theater?

Yes

I'm also the real vig and plan on shooting her tonight.

if your reaction to me claiming vigilante and successfully forcing the mafia to hardclaim and out themselves while also providing you ample cover to hide and take shots without the mafia knowing who you are is to turn around and shoot the same person who provided you with that cover, then uh....i don't know what to say

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Sat May 15, 2021 11:35 pm Let's try it this way:

Those who suspect me to whatever degree, could you please state what you believe to be Alison's worst crime(s)? I may or may not bother answering to said crimes, but it would still be useful to me to know what brought our dear player roster to this scenario. Thanks.

i have concerns about your slot, but it's almost entirely due to the fact that there are a number of players in this game that i find very villagery, whereas i was lukewarm about the majority of alison's posts. i am withholding judgement about your posts until i see what direction your solving goes in, but i'm reading your analysis and keeping an open mind about you

marmot, could you please explain your townread on TSP? he's a slot i've been struggling to read, so maybe we can reach some common ground there

Marmot wrote: ↑Sat May 15, 2021 10:45 pm I think that town!SPF could look at my ISO, see that I explained every single one of my townreads at some point (except for Gavial, but that needs no explanation), and not come away with the idea that they're just a hodgepodge of random reads that also happened to be the consensus.

You don't appear to disagree with my reads, nor have you questioned me about any of them or where they come from. You seem more interested in me viewing you as town, and shading me as scum, then you do in hearing my take.

well, you can know that i looked at your ISO to examine your reads, since the initial post i made explaining my read on you had direct quotes from your ISO. i have looked into the reasons why you have the townreads you do, and that is the exact issue - the reads feel like reads that any wolf that has autopilot mode set to "ON" would make. i am looking for signs of authentic solving or hunting from you, and i have not seen any of them yet

that does not mean that you're a wolf, and that's why i'm trying to engage w/you in a good faith way and keeping an open mind about your slot, so that we actually can find each other if we're both villagers

Marmot wrote: ↑Sat May 15, 2021 10:41 pm I prefer correct reads to spicy reads.

reads can still be spicy even if theyre consensus - like, if you had a super unique and wild reason to scumread the alison slot based on a heavily detailed infograph psychoanalyzing their interactions with invictius, i would find it villagery even if your read is a "consensus" read. the issue is that your reads feel relatively barebones to me

Marmot wrote: ↑Sat May 15, 2021 10:38 pm @staypositivefriend do you disagree with any of my reads specifically?

i disagree with nanook being in your POE - i intend to ISO nanook before i commit myself to this read, but i feel that his posting on an individual level ~and~ the way that invicitus interacted with him makes him come off looking fairly villagery

i also disagree with me being in your POE - for obvious reasons :P

i would not personally have TSP in my list of townreads yet - i need to see more from him and i have felt underwhelmed by his content so far

Marmot wrote: ↑Sat May 15, 2021 10:36 pm

staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Sat May 15, 2021 10:29 pm the reasons that i gave for your townreads in this posts were direct quotes from your ISO, but the description is "off base"? how so?

this response has a lack of charitability to my perspective that i find wolfy as well

You made the statement that my reads are "hodgepodge of lukewarm takes that primarily echo the already existing consensus"


You used the word hodgepodge, that is an uncharitable word right there. It suggests that I haven't thought about my reads (which despite my brain fart with falcon, I have)

Also, is there an issue with my reads being similar to the consensus, even if I came to them in a different manner?

do you feel that the depth of thought that you've put into your reads is reflected in the way that you've posted in this thread? is it possible for town!SPF to reasonably believe that you have put a lot of thought into your reads based on the ones that you have outed so far?

if the answer is "no", then why do you feel that my perspective is uncharitable/scummy?

if the answer is "yes", then what am i missing that will help me see the thought you've put into this game?

no particular issue with your reads being consensus - i would just be more likely to lend credibility to your reads being authentic if i felt that your reads had a level of spiciness/uniqueness to them

Marmot wrote: ↑Sat May 15, 2021 10:22 pm

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Sat May 15, 2021 10:12 pm

staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Sat May 15, 2021 10:08 pm marmot townread alison on d1 for "pushing for activity"

he townread dizzy for "reasonable reads and omgusing"

he echoed the agreement that falcon should be chopped on d1 because "alison said stuff about falcon that i agree with"

he scumread hollowkatt on d1 for believing that there was a wolf between invict and himself

his most recent POE has a disproportionate amount of townreads relative to the effort he's put into the game so far, and the fact that falcon was included in his POE despite already being dead indicates to me that marmot is not particularly in tune with this game

it is not impossible for a villager to have any of these reads, but i do not sense any underlying passion or internal consistency behind them - marmot's iso is a hodgepodge of lukewarm takes that primarily echo the already existing consensus

if i contrast that with his style of reading and scumhunting in a recent game we played together (congresss of vienna), i have some mild concern. one of the first reads that marmot outed in that game was a wallpost that analyzed my specific word choices in heavy detail while using previous meta as a crossreference - it was unique and thoughtful, and i have not felt any similar kind of energy from him yet in this game

Thanks. @Marmot how do you feel about this description of your play so far? What do you think of SPF?

I think it's pretty off-base. I've offered reasons why I think all of my townreads are town. Some of them might be similar to or agreements with what's been said already.

Also, there's no formula out there that says you have to contribute x amount of content to have y amount of townreads.

the reasons that i gave for your townreads in this posts were direct quotes from your ISO, but the description is "off base"? how so?

this response has a lack of charitability to my perspective that i find wolfy as well

Marmot wrote: ↑Sat May 15, 2021 10:00 pm I think you mean copy-paste spf, unless you think I'm also deleting other people's reads in the process.

lol yeah that's the term i meant :P

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Sat May 15, 2021 9:55 pm

staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Sat May 15, 2021 9:47 pm i feel that marmot's posts in this game have been fairly wolfy so far - his reads feel very cut and paste and i have not observed much depth of thought in his solving nor interest in putting the pieces of the game together

not married to that read, but that's how i currently feel

Can you explain what you mean by "cut and paste"?

marmot townread alison on d1 for "pushing for activity"

he townread dizzy for "reasonable reads and omgusing"

he echoed the agreement that falcon should be chopped on d1 because "alison said stuff about falcon that i agree with"

he scumread hollowkatt on d1 for believing that there was a wolf between invict and himself

his most recent POE has a disproportionate amount of townreads relative to the effort he's put into the game so far, and the fact that falcon was included in his POE despite already being dead indicates to me that marmot is not particularly in tune with this game

it is not impossible for a villager to have any of these reads, but i do not sense any underlying passion or internal consistency behind them - marmot's iso is a hodgepodge of lukewarm takes that primarily echo the already existing consensus

if i contrast that with his style of reading and scumhunting in a recent game we played together (congresss of vienna), i have some mild concern. one of the first reads that marmot outed in that game was a wallpost that analyzed my specific word choices in heavy detail while using previous meta as a crossreference - it was unique and thoughtful, and i have not felt any similar kind of energy from him yet in this game

i feel that marmot's posts in this game have been fairly wolfy so far - his reads feel very cut and paste and i have not observed much depth of thought in his solving nor interest in putting the pieces of the game together

not married to that read, but that's how i currently feel

staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Thu May 13, 2021 1:52 am

Invictius wrote: ↑Thu May 13, 2021 1:42 am

staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Thu May 13, 2021 1:28 am

DkKoba wrote: ↑Thu May 13, 2021 1:26 am

staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Thu May 13, 2021 1:25 am

DkKoba wrote: ↑Thu May 13, 2021 1:24 am

staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Thu May 13, 2021 1:21 am no clue what nanook's alignment is yet

i mean they are purposefully trying to obfuscate it in an extremely anti town way that hurts solving - so if they're town they're playing like a jackass with no regard for anyone else trying to solve the game

nanook is? i dont really get that impression at all, he seems fine

is this how they normally play?

i barely paid attention to them in bread mafia bc they kept voting town lol

yeah he has a pretty chill playstyle but he tryhards when it counts in my experience

i dont mind him coasting as long as he picks it up when it's necessary, and i trust that he will

the issue is when he's scum he literally has to do very little to get near end game. And every phase counts otherwise why do any of us bother at all unless it's end game

well, nanook playing a coasty game doesnt mean that he doesn't have specific alignment tells - i pegged him as maf in a recent mash game even though he was one of the lowest posters in the thread. i am neutral about his alignment so far but i don't think he's an impossible read

it might be easier to read him accurately if his activity was higher, but that's true for a lot of people

i've been weighing the theory that this specific exchange between invicitus and myself spews both nanook and koba as town

it feels like invicitus is trying to subtly "egg on" koba to continue pushing on nanook - koba had launched some aggressive attacks on nanook and when i tried to shut the conversation down, invict lit things on fire again by broadly complaining about nanook's playstyle and echoing koba's opinion

Marmot wrote: ↑Wed May 12, 2021 5:10 pm Current quick takes.

Alison is town for pushing for activity.
Dizzy is town for reasonable reads and OMGUSing. Good luck surviving til Day 2 Dizzy.
I am town because my rolecard says so.

also marmot, you said that alison was town on d1 for "pushing on activity"

what happened to that read?

im not entirely sure what to make of that, lmao

could you please explain your strongest reads in either direction? your strongest wolfread? your strongest townread?