The Syndicate

hold on I'm missing something. what stops the wolves from PR reading vulgard and not have it claimed to them?

outed wolf wrote: ↑Mon May 31, 2021 11:15 am
Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Mon May 31, 2021 11:05 am Um.

Why is the story not this:

Vulgard claims JK to Marl in night chat. Marl is mafia and believes the claim. Marl then tells his team that Vulgard is JK. They decide to both NK Vulgard and block Vulgard. This is always the best play for mafia if they think Vul is JK, and this explains why Amy could track. Assuming block trumps JK.

Sunbae however is the real JK and targets Vulgard, so he doesn’t die.

What am I missing?

If you believe Vulgard is town, should your vote not always be on Marl? And I rather believe Vulgard is town.

Is this not just the actions that makes the most sense? Mafia would rather kill JK than 2-shot Tracker. They would also rather block JK, as Vulgard (if he was JK) would be able to stop the kill on him with some luck.

Yes???
I agree with this fwiw

If vulgards a villager marluxion has to be a wolf

No reason why anyone would kill vulgard otherwise

I mean, is that the ONLY case? I havent read through his posts, but could someone have read PR vibes into it and gone after him without marl?

@Chloe what's your read on marl now?

SO i looked through tangy's d1 posts (and lost my quotes somehow) and I get the feeling she was pocketing nutella on that readthrough. she starts with a slight wolf read but quickly changes to a v read and not just any v read, but the highest v read. Due to meta. Also of note is she was pretty wishy washy on alison, and as I mentioned that was something I am looking at today. People that just didn't take much of a stance.

looking at gavial and kza, she had a light v read on kza for nothing and wanted gav or arete over kza. voted gav reluctantly - clearly preferred arete

I need to look through some of chloe's posts next, but so far not so good with the benefit of hindsight

im not shrugging, I'm just not putting in huge amounts of energy to a light game. there's a fucking difference

Vulgard wrote: ↑Mon May 31, 2021 4:39 am
dyachei wrote: ↑Sun May 30, 2021 6:39 pm So if it's not alison, I want to look at the people who didn't really have a conviction on her slot
I... would expect town!dya to do that overnight. And to start today with different posting.

Marl claiming JK on c4

Amy has the towniest reactions to the initial shitshow (Marl claiming JK on c4). But she's already an IC so w/e.

C4/SPF is complicated and depends on who was actually carrying the kill. I think a SPF/c4 world has TMI on c4 not being outed (not carrying the kill), though. C4's reaction to it is like "who the fuck would kill me" which doesn't sound very concerned. And SPF reluctantly admits c4 might be mafia after all. I'd expect more extreme reactions from them if c4 was actually the carrier.

Zack is completely uninterested in this conundrum and talks about Dya first thing. Either he's town thinking Marl's claim is fake or mafia with TMI.

Visor... just tells people not to claim early. Does not consider the claim being fake, either.

C4/SPF not having strong reactions to the claim. Zack ignoring it straight up. Visor complaining about the early claim. Yeah, nobody believed the claim. Except maybe Visor. The reactions are so weak. Nutella's reaction by voting c4 stands out a bit but that's also not very strong. I can't extrapolate anything from this, it's impossible they are all wolves with TMI. Probably not Marl's partners, though, if Marl is a wolf? This is a reach, but if Marl had his partners in the thread while claiming, he'd have them support him.

Sunbae claiming JK on me

Sunbae's claim is actually very towny from the start. If this get CC'd the CCer better have a good case for themselves.

C4 and Marl's reaction is basically the same. "WHAT?" Visor's reaction is actually really good here. He doesn't assume I'm mafia, for one, and thinks about other mechanical possibilities.

Marl goes all in on me being a wolf here and accuses Arete of being my partner. ...I actually think it's TOWN indicative of him. This is extremely opportunistic of him, but hear me out here. I really don't think wolf!Marl instantly take the opportunity to chain two misyeets here. Even if he gets both misyeets, this makes him look absolutely terrible. His reaction fits the bill of "townie who feels betrayed and assumes the worst straight up." The post pinging me afterward about my effort in the mason chat is even townier. Wolf Marl has no reason to post this since he already pretends I'm a wolf. It all reads like "villager who thinks he was betrayed." And since he has a tendency to tunnel, his insistence on me being a wolf here is something I don't find surprising.

Yeah, no, his posting continues to be exactly what I'd expect from villager!him. He even seems to forget the postcap exists and screamsa for like 30 posts. This isn't wolf!Marl.

#2860 is another post from him I find super unlikely to come from a wolf POV. This isn't a thought that comes to wolf!Marl, since wolf!Marl knows I'm VT and Sunbae is trueclaiming.

SPF trying to figure out whether I'm JK or not could go either way. Her trying to figure out what I was trying to do with c4 looks decent but I think it's in her wolfrange.

Dya's posts are really 'eh' throughout. They don't seem very invested in this conundrum. They sound so... deflated throughout today. I'd warrant a guess they expect to go regardless of me being "redchecked" and they've lost the WiM to play. I don't think v!dya who was wrong on Alison posts like this today, I just don't.

Visor and Zack talking about something completely unrelated is wolfy. Visor worldbuilding around my red flip before I even get the chance to defend myself is wolfy. They don't seem to care about me ever posting today, they are setting themselves up for the future. I don't sense a villagery inquisitiveness in their posting. Visor looks better than Zack because at least he's looking into mechanical possibilities. That said, wolves can easily do this as well. The one thing that looks good for Visor is that he reaches the conclusion vul/c4/dya. I think c4 is a wolf and I think dya is a wolf as well. The third isn't me, though; if anything I'd say it's SPF for shielding c4 and pretending to be pocketed.

If dya/c4/spf (spf only if c4 is actually a wolf) is not the solve, I'd take another look at Zack/Visor. Zack just isn't giving a damn about the situation. Meanwhile, if that solve is wrong, then Visor created a PoE of three villas while preflipping me red. I realize he's now considering other worlds but that should still say a lot. SPF's posting have been alright but I think her wolfrange is broad enough to accomodate them.

Note that if c4 is a villager then SPF is much more likely to be a villager. This doesn't work in reverse, though.

I'd say Chloe is a wolf but I still think Tangrowth's posting was super super towny. I am not convinced. Her not talking about the situation at all could be explained by her not being there. Which means I think it's NAI.

Why not anyone else?

Nutella - I really think she's just threadspewed at this point. And I've also heard she has a polarized meta, so I trust that. And I've vibed with her posting multiple times throughout the game.
Dizzy - Doesn't treat Gavial like that as a wolf. Doesn't play the same idgaf way like his partner KZA does; Dizzy entered the thread claiming wolf. KBA entered the thread openly shitposting. I don't think two wolves do this, then proceed not to interact with each other, etc. it doesn't make much sense.
Marl - I think his reactions, of all people's, are the towniest here. If he's a wolf pushing agenda and I'm getting snowed, well done. I really think his posts here don't come from a wolf POV. His progression tracks when you assume "villager who feels betrayed and gets tunneled."
Arete - Locking this as V. I am not bothering to explain any further, Arete is just town.
Amy - Tracker.
Sunbae - JK unless CC'd. The only person who could CC this at this point is Chloe I think. In which case, lmao.

why the fuck would I do anything overnight in a light game

i also have a puzzlehunt this weekend. I spent all my time off from this game there

Ok I'm back now

I think c4 is still wolfy for how he behaved around alison. I need to peek at EOD2 again to get a better feel on who else.

sunbae wrote: ↑Sun May 30, 2021 7:58 pm Bro, I believe I've conceded your c4 stuff already but I'm fine with it. I not longer thing it necessarily means c4 is town and I have zero other reasons to town read them at this point. I need to actually spend time reading Vul at some point too, but I'll be sure to focus there as well and give some final thoughts on it.

Amy, good gif.

I think Nutellas reaction to today has been yuck fwiw but I'll look there in a bit too.Amy, nows the time to let me know how strong your nutella read is.

I'ma bail for a while (lots of posts used already). Gonna spend them all on game relevant content and entirely ignore any claim stuff from vulgard or whatever. I would suggest we go through the following things:

1. Iso vulgard and find the people he started turning on when others did.
2. Find a pretty solid group of villagers we trust. Need like 3-4 other than yourselves.
3. Sort dya because lost in all of the claim stuff is that Dya has shown approx zero care about being wrong in a similar way to Vulgard on the god read
4. Create a poe and start boxing wolves in

The time for "oh i know them meta read!" and "previous game differs!" lil cliquey reads to hit the bricks and "heres whats happened this game" reads to take over.

this is bs, I care about being wrong but I've been preoccupied today with walrus and a puzzlehunt

sunbae wrote: ↑Sun May 30, 2021 7:46 pm would you prefer "jedi mind tricked" instead of "conned"?

we've all seen marl play before? couldn't marl have just decided to fake claim like all FoLers?

arete has the want I think

sunbae has been sort of towny for me but sort of not, that fits with PR pretty well

[VOTE: vulgard] aubergine

im in the middle of stuff right now (and about to have dinner) will be more involved in a minute

Marluxion wrote: ↑Sun May 30, 2021 6:45 pm [VOTE: C4] aubergine

this is a vote I can get behind

there were a lot of people that were just meh about what she'd be iirc

So if it's not alison, I want to look at the people who didn't really have a conviction on her slot

ngl, i was considering posting SPF IS GAY as my last post

every minute feels like it's taking forever

Arete wrote: ↑Sat May 29, 2021 5:54 pm
dyachei wrote: ↑Sat May 29, 2021 5:46 pm
Arete wrote: ↑Sat May 29, 2021 5:44 pm hm

Dya, can you walk me through what your thought process is right now? like a couple sentences of stream-of-consciousness what's going through your head
I'm worried about the votes on me and I really think alison is a wolf. but now I'm worried about c4, too. I thought he had another reason for reading alison as pr but he doesnt. And didnt he mention it when i was in the lead? kind of makes me wonder if he's pushing for the mis elim
hm

I've been mulling this over because like, all of these are reasonable thoughts, but there's not the ... emotion? ... that I'd expect to see if someone you have as 95 percent a wolf is about to go over

like it doesn't feel excited at all

maybe this is a dumb read

idk why I have a frantic energy rn

nice cat, zack

Arete wrote: ↑Sat May 29, 2021 5:44 pm hm

Dya, can you walk me through what your thought process is right now? like a couple sentences of stream-of-consciousness what's going through your head

I'm worried about the votes on me and I really think alison is a wolf. but now I'm worried about c4, too. I thought he had another reason for reading alison as pr but he doesnt. And didnt he mention it when i was in the lead? kind of makes me wonder if he's pushing for the mis elim

I dont want it to switch off alison at all dizzy

staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Sat May 29, 2021 5:42 pm dyachei, how confident do you feel that alison is gonna flip red? like a percentage?

like 95%

Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Sat May 29, 2021 5:38 pm
dyachei wrote: ↑Sat May 29, 2021 5:36 pm it doesn't feel like an EOD
Why, and what does that tell you?

everyone just feels so static. It's been like this all day. I'm used to MU where there might be a cfd

it doesn't feel like an EOD

c4e5g3d5 wrote: ↑Sat May 29, 2021 5:32 pm
dyachei wrote: ↑Sat May 29, 2021 5:30 pm
c4e5g3d5 wrote: ↑Sat May 29, 2021 5:29 pm
dyachei wrote: ↑Sat May 29, 2021 5:27 pm
c4e5g3d5 wrote: ↑Sat May 29, 2021 5:26 pm Obviously if Alison doesn't actually get in here and claim she's a wolf, but I'm still considering that a big if.
a part of me wants to ask why you're so sure, another part wants nothing to do with it
What's not to understand? It would mean that she was actually just ditching the game instead of lying low for a mech reason.
but why would you immediately go to a pr read for that? is that really all it's for?
Did you miss literally everything else I said about this?

i thought you had more of a reason because her not claiming when she thought it was EOD SHOULD change your mind on this but it didnt

c4e5g3d5 wrote: ↑Sat May 29, 2021 5:29 pm
dyachei wrote: ↑Sat May 29, 2021 5:27 pm
c4e5g3d5 wrote: ↑Sat May 29, 2021 5:26 pm Obviously if Alison doesn't actually get in here and claim she's a wolf, but I'm still considering that a big if.
a part of me wants to ask why you're so sure, another part wants nothing to do with it
What's not to understand? It would mean that she was actually just ditching the game instead of lying low for a mech reason.

but why would you immediately go to a pr read for that? is that really all it's for?

c4e5g3d5 wrote: ↑Sat May 29, 2021 5:26 pm Obviously if Alison doesn't actually get in here and claim she's a wolf, but I'm still considering that a big if.

a part of me wants to ask why you're so sure, another part wants nothing to do with it

staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Sat May 29, 2021 5:18 pm
dyachei wrote: ↑Sat May 29, 2021 5:14 pm
staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Sat May 29, 2021 5:12 pm i still dont feel that c4 is wolfy. shrug
why do you think he's villa without mentioning CoV
he is focused on asserting his presence and making sure that people listens to him while at the same time being willing to die on highly specific hills and thought processes that i feel a wolf would be more likely to concede - there is a sense of stubbornness and almost deliberate wolfiness to his posts that i feel like most wolves go out of their way to avoid exhibiting

looking at his iso again, he's in the range of a wolf who could have pocketed me by exploiting our specific meta dynamic, but i don't feel that he's wolfy

maybe it's just my perspective as his number 1 wolfread, but his case against me sucks

staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Sat May 29, 2021 5:12 pm i still dont feel that c4 is wolfy. shrug

why do you think he's villa without mentioning CoV

Vulgard wrote: ↑Sat May 29, 2021 4:50 pm
dyachei wrote: ↑Sat May 29, 2021 4:44 pm
Vulgard wrote: ↑Sat May 29, 2021 4:41 pm I have no idea why I haven't asked this question before, but.

Dyachei. If Alison is a villager. What then?

And actually, if Alison is a wolf, what then? Any suspected partners? You've been tunneling her for 2 day phases now, surely you have some associations. Give us something other than getting annoyed every time someone wolfreads you.
I literally just posted a reads list this afternoon. c4's behavior seems kind of weird, but I admit that may be something to do with his pr read
How does this reconcile with your wolfread on c4? I feel like you're implying something other than "he's mafia" in this post despite calling him mafia just now.

I feel like I just answered this. If alison w, c4's much more likely to be a wolf trying to save her without taking a lot of responsibility for it

it's easy to say "I had a PR read on someone" to move votes off them

Vulgard wrote: ↑Sat May 29, 2021 4:46 pm
dyachei wrote: ↑Sat May 29, 2021 2:51 pm Villa to wolf list
Amy
Tangy/chloe
Vulgard
visor
Sunbae
nutella
bronana
spf
marl
Dizzy
Arete
C4
Alison
You mean this? This doesn't tell me anything about how your reads change depending on Alison's alignment. Unless the readlist was made with the premise Alison's a wolf.

independent reads. if alison a wolf, c4 is a wolf

staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Sat May 29, 2021 4:45 pm anyone have any questions for me?

yes give us a full reads list?

Vulgard wrote: ↑Sat May 29, 2021 4:41 pm I have no idea why I haven't asked this question before, but.

Dyachei. If Alison is a villager. What then?

And actually, if Alison is a wolf, what then? Any suspected partners? You've been tunneling her for 2 day phases now, surely you have some associations. Give us something other than getting annoyed every time someone wolfreads you.

I literally just posted a reads list this afternoon. c4's behavior seems kind of weird, but I admit that may be something to do with his pr read

Arete wrote: ↑Sat May 29, 2021 4:34 pm
dyachei wrote: ↑Sat May 29, 2021 4:30 pm
Arete wrote: ↑Sat May 29, 2021 4:28 pm
dyachei wrote: ↑Sat May 29, 2021 4:25 pm
Arete wrote: ↑Sat May 29, 2021 4:20 pm
dyachei wrote: ↑Sat May 29, 2021 4:14 pm
Arete wrote: ↑Sat May 29, 2021 4:07 pm

oh right also I forgot to say this earlier but this is like

the easiest thing ever to fake

like I don't even have a strong wolfgame but I am capable of confidently stating a villager is a wolf as scum

if this is out of Dya's wolfrange then sure, I'll listen, but I would find it surprising on priors if it were
why do you keep trying to find reasons to keep me as a wolf?
I'm not 'trying to find reasons to keep you as a wolf' I'm 'baffled that anyone would think that post was worth townreading from anyone with more than about a game of wolfing experience in the first place'
but you are. you keep arguing that everything I do fits a wolf and when someone says maybe it doesnt, you say it does for a new reason
do you actually think the post Nutella quoted would be at all surprising for a wolf-pushing-a-villager (which was the specific hypothetical under discussion) to make

either for a general-wolf or for you-in-particular
you'd have to be a hard busser, which I am not
no like

neither Nutella nor I are talking about the world where that post is a bus

in worlds where Alison is a villager and you are a wolf, is that a post you would struggle to make

oh my bad. probably not

Arete wrote: ↑Sat May 29, 2021 4:28 pm
dyachei wrote: ↑Sat May 29, 2021 4:25 pm
Arete wrote: ↑Sat May 29, 2021 4:20 pm
dyachei wrote: ↑Sat May 29, 2021 4:14 pm
Arete wrote: ↑Sat May 29, 2021 4:07 pm
nutella wrote: ↑Sat May 29, 2021 3:14 pm
dyachei wrote: ↑Sat May 29, 2021 12:32 pm

yeah alison isn't a villager
like this doesn't ever come from a wolf pushing town does it

lol me

i probably owe you numerous apologies dya
oh right also I forgot to say this earlier but this is like

the easiest thing ever to fake

like I don't even have a strong wolfgame but I am capable of confidently stating a villager is a wolf as scum

if this is out of Dya's wolfrange then sure, I'll listen, but I would find it surprising on priors if it were
why do you keep trying to find reasons to keep me as a wolf?
I'm not 'trying to find reasons to keep you as a wolf' I'm 'baffled that anyone would think that post was worth townreading from anyone with more than about a game of wolfing experience in the first place'
but you are. you keep arguing that everything I do fits a wolf and when someone says maybe it doesnt, you say it does for a new reason
do you actually think the post Nutella quoted would be at all surprising for a wolf-pushing-a-villager (which was the specific hypothetical under discussion) to make

either for a general-wolf or for you-in-particular

you'd have to be a hard busser, which I am not

Arete wrote: ↑Sat May 29, 2021 4:20 pm
dyachei wrote: ↑Sat May 29, 2021 4:14 pm
Arete wrote: ↑Sat May 29, 2021 4:07 pm
nutella wrote: ↑Sat May 29, 2021 3:14 pm
dyachei wrote: ↑Sat May 29, 2021 12:32 pm
Vulgard wrote: ↑Sat May 29, 2021 12:31 pm I call Alison a villager, then she re-enters the thread and does this.
yeah alison isn't a villager
like this doesn't ever come from a wolf pushing town does it

lol me

i probably owe you numerous apologies dya
oh right also I forgot to say this earlier but this is like

the easiest thing ever to fake

like I don't even have a strong wolfgame but I am capable of confidently stating a villager is a wolf as scum

if this is out of Dya's wolfrange then sure, I'll listen, but I would find it surprising on priors if it were
why do you keep trying to find reasons to keep me as a wolf?
I'm not 'trying to find reasons to keep you as a wolf' I'm 'baffled that anyone would think that post was worth townreading from anyone with more than about a game of wolfing experience in the first place'

but you are. you keep arguing that everything I do fits a wolf and when someone says maybe it doesnt, you say it does for a new reason

Arete wrote: ↑Sat May 29, 2021 4:07 pm
nutella wrote: ↑Sat May 29, 2021 3:14 pm
dyachei wrote: ↑Sat May 29, 2021 12:32 pm
Vulgard wrote: ↑Sat May 29, 2021 12:31 pm I call Alison a villager, then she re-enters the thread and does this.
yeah alison isn't a villager
like this doesn't ever come from a wolf pushing town does it

lol me

i probably owe you numerous apologies dya
oh right also I forgot to say this earlier but this is like

the easiest thing ever to fake

like I don't even have a strong wolfgame but I am capable of confidently stating a villager is a wolf as scum

if this is out of Dya's wolfrange then sure, I'll listen, but I would find it surprising on priors if it were

why do you keep trying to find reasons to keep me as a wolf?

I dont think she's JK, she's just a wolf

nutella wrote: ↑Sat May 29, 2021 3:33 pm
dyachei wrote: ↑Sat May 29, 2021 3:31 pm how is it that all you guys think I'm a wolf, but then follow my POE almost exactly
turns out i don't actually think you're a wolf at the moment

give it 5 minutes

how is it that all you guys think I'm a wolf, but then follow my POE almost exactly

sunbae wrote: ↑Sat May 29, 2021 2:52 pm Dya, can you chat to me about Chloe? I'm trying to figure out how to iso them as a sub and could use more takes there.

I'm reading off a tangy's tone rn. I think the KZA stuff is twtbaw

Villa to wolf list
Amy
Tangy/chloe
Vulgard
visor
Sunbae
nutella
bronana
spf
marl
Dizzy
Arete
C4
Alison

the people I'm most concerned about are all voting me

Vulgard wrote: ↑Sat May 29, 2021 12:31 pm I call Alison a villager, then she re-enters the thread and does this.

yeah alison isn't a villager

also can people like @sunbae stop calling me dejected? Cuz I'm not at all. I'm *still* excited to play this game even with the shitty reads on me. I was just busy with work yesterday, especially in the afternoon.

I'm not dejected so stop trying to attach words like that to me

oh my read on nutella is that nutella is light v. There have been a couple things today that lead me to that including her OMGUS voting. What I don't like is that she has been misconstruing or misrepping my posts all fucking day

Arete wrote: ↑Fri May 28, 2021 11:42 pm @dyachei can you give examples of (non-incompetent) wolves having bad progression in the specific way that you're accusing c4 of having bad progression (literally 180ing on previous strong reads with no explanation)? I'm trying to figure out if we have a legitimate difference in opinion on how wolves tend to play vs. whether you're just making things up

@Arete I can't give examples because I don't remember exactly which games they're from. My mind doesn't really work like that. Worse than his progression was his refusal to help me understand it. Yeah, yeah, I know I demanded posts but he didn't even share the general strokes of why spf was suddenly a villager to him and it was a sudden change.

nutella wrote: ↑Sat May 29, 2021 12:54 am
staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Sat May 29, 2021 12:18 am i looked through the majority of alison's ISO last night and still came out of it feeling cold and indifferent - i have never been in a game with her before where i have been so apathetic about her posts, and that includes a wolfgame i just saw from her where she was putting in similar lack of effort. i have genuinely been wondering if alison plans to die and has been effectively in some form of anti-spew, because the lack of content even relating to the people that she's focusing on is just surreal, and i don't know what i'm supposed to make of it. she's in my POE.
yeah i agree with this

staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Sat May 29, 2021 12:18 am i've spoken at length about my concerns with dyachei, and they are concerns that are still resonating in the back of my mind even as i've held back on my push for the latter half of this dayphase. i feel that dyachei and i are looking at very different games. they are suspicious of c4 and nutella even though those two are some of my strongest villager reads. they scumread alison even though their reasoning for scumreading alison has primarily fallen flat for me. (specifically, the logic about alison being informed by her partners that dyachei was calling gavial anti-town just Does Not Make Sense to me. i don't get it! it doesn't feel like a villagery thought process to have.) i do feel that dyachei's posts have overall improved in tone and energy today, but i'm not there on them being a villager at all. dyachei is in my POE.
this too -- i think it's a helpful articulation that dya is sticking with the old and imo weak reasons to suspect alison

man i really dont know what to do with this dichotomy atm lol

i was somewhat concerned about visor/alison as a pair and that was exacerbated with visor's reactions to when alison popped in thinking it was eod. that was all weird vibes

no, I'm not sticking with old reasons. More proof you're not reading my posts. That's what started my suspicion. As the game has gone on and alison hasn't done more, my suspicion has grown. She's given me no reason to see her as a villager.

At least be honest with my reasons for reading alison the way I am. It's shit like this that has me doubting you

sunbae wrote: ↑Sat May 29, 2021 1:17 am Sometimes when a situation is really making me struggle it helps to break down the problem into smaller pieces and find a solution that covers all of them:

Main Problem: I am having difficulty parsing the Dya/Alison stuff

Mini Problem #1: I do not feel like Alison has provided much in terms of large scale takes this game. I do not believe Alison has attempted to discern the alignment of various players but rather has started with a conclusion on said players and argued from there when it was relevant to the discussion. I also believe that - from what I've heard about Alison - town Alison would be quite insightful and bringing their own point of view to the table, making me think about various things in new ways this game.

Mini Problem #2: I do not feel like Dya has stretched out their world view at all nor have really been trying to solve the game as a whole. Rather it's been a lot more of a narrow swath of focus (unless specifically asked) and a constant reiteration of the main day 1 read.

Mini Problem #1 & #2 issues: Alison and Dya have been after each other since midway through day 1. I do not know which person to believe here. I spent some time pushing Dya and spent more time defending Dya and being skeptical of Alison.

Mini Problem #3: Both of these players have been declared highly likely wolves from multiple players in the game.

Mini Problem #4: Both of them have basically dismissed any pressure in their direction (sounds like OMGUS is the phrase being used often? But I think thats the gist of it).

Potential Solution?: Dya was called wolf early. Began to attack Alison. Alison was getting town reads early. People started to believe Dya instead. Both players pretty much froze in place as that happened. Neither branched out too much. Neither started solving around their wolf read. They've spun their wheels on each other. KZA died overnight. Both of them are just pretty down and disheartened. They are both wolves that were going for some distance and got locked into a situation they didn't know how to handle. My difficulty in parsing this interaction is because the answer is *both* of them rather than one.

Probability? Uncertain. Does it answer all of my issues? It would. Gonna ponder overnight.

I'm always called wolf early. It's a thing and I hate it

Vulgard wrote: ↑Sat May 29, 2021 2:59 am I think Alison's competent enough to do this as a wolf, but I still think she is a villager. @ Chloe

@ visor That part is weird because like. That's not what was happening day 1. Day 1 Amy had a few posts where it looked like she was pocketing dya and dya proceeded to townread her. Come today, Amy is now wolfreading Dya and Dya is townreading Amy. I'm not sure why she'd turn on someone who townreads her if she were a wolf, especially today, when far fewer people townread her. What would be the point of the day 1 thing then? It's possible she's following the thread's concerns about Dya in an effort to stay alive, but it seems counterproductive for wolf!Amy to do.

As for what it means about Dya, I don't know. I feel like townreading Amy in this situation is anti-wincon for their wolfgame, since they could just flip their read on Amy like Amy flipped her read on them. It would be justified. But then again, it literally doesn't matter to dya since dya's been insistent on pushing Alison all game. Besides, I've just checked ISOs and while Amy's shifting her read on Dya, Dya doesn't seem to be paying attention to it at all. I'm not sure if v!Dya ignores that.

There's also the fact you say Amy's wolfreading Dya, but Amy's currently voting on the same wagon as Dya.

Amy's wolfread on Alison is weird. Her only reasoning for putting her toward the bottom of her readlist (apparently) is that she isn't comfortable voting anywhere else. This was earlier during day 2. She also says that Alison is playing an underwhelming game if town. I... don't see many other explanations for why she even wolfreads Alison. She should be townreading Dya based on this mindset as well, since Dya is by far the strongest Alison pusher in this game and Amy calls an Alison vote her most comfortable vote. Her shifting her read on Dya should mean something for her Alison read as well, no? I'd be more okay with it if Amy straight up said the Alison voting was self-pres, but she claims to genuinely believe Alison is a likely wolf - yet I find it hard to find any arguments for it in her ISO. The read just looks fake and birthed from a self-preservation instinct.

Amy is just town

Chloe wrote: ↑Sat May 29, 2021 4:41 am continuing through d1:

multiple people have brought up c4's shortened readslists and asked him to please stop using that formatting. it actually kinda rubs me the wrong way that hes pretty much ignoring requests to cooperate. maybe hes smug town that wont change his playstyle to appeal to the masses but i feel like he'd state that somewhere?

just had a really dumb chloe moment
thought someone tmi'd their buddy but then realized i just suck at reading
lol

dizzy's treatment of seth is a big ol' whatze fuck but so incredibly unnecessary and against the grain as a wolf that i feel it's villagery

spf actually bothering to interact with seth and trying to dig into his brain is a good look as it seems the consensus is to just brush him off as wolfy and accept that he's the chop. no dunk-fest or painting him in a bad light. this doesnt feel like the spf i saw in CoV either. no indication of hardbussing for the c r e d, and her posts dont feel overly padded? also a distinct lack of lampshading which is good
(i'll also add on that her progression on me doesnt give me any bad vibes)
tossing out the How To Find SPF As Town guide pretty early on initially felt premature to me and very out of place. didnt like it. im usually not a fan of that type of thing. though upon re-read im actually leaning in the opposite direction now. its ever-so-slightly townie to break the flow of the thread willingly.. and at the same time doing something blatantly gross (self-meta! woo!) yet her post doesn't feel like shes using it as a crutch or gaslighting (for lack of a better word) the thread into thinking shes been villagery af bro! (either of which i'd expect from a wolf more than just a 'hi heres a little thing on how to figure me out. do with it what you will i guess' and leaving it at that)
reading the whole sunbae/spf interaction with a clearer mind makes me realize i was pretty damn conf-biased my first time around just because of how icky i found the guide in general, and i kinda.. wanted her to be a wolf a little bit? still think sunbae DIVING in and going ham, as well as the follow-up discussion with spf, is fairly villagery

this isnt really the type of associative-read i'd expect from a woofer? this is a read i think applies *much* more to anyone newer to wolfing, or fm in general, but it goes a level deeper than what i'm used to seeing from wolves so ye its a good vibe

pretty much every new nut posts just solidifies my read there
on a related note i didnt mention this earlier i dont think (?) but i think the fact that dya hasnt found nut when im like.. really confident there, is concerning? im see-saw between it being wolfy and it being villagery but i dont really understand it at this point - and from what i saw it was mostly based on the fact that shes not as.. bouncy as they're used to? @dyachei i can you expand on your nut read for me please? i could be getting snowed, but i really dont think i am. i'd appreciate a more fleshed out post or two that i can dig into please (will check and make sure i didnt miss anything from you wrt nut after im done with this)

im reading through alison's take regarding seth and i can see an argument for it being tmi - but i dont get why she would do that and what she thinks she gets from his flip? she'd have to know she'd look bad? like, if shes a wolf i cant help but get the feeling shes positioning herself to be bussed and put the other wolves in a better position, but also.. we're down a wolf and thats super risky and not optimal. im preflipping a bit but if alison flips wolf PR i think dya is just lickity lock. if she flips goon i think theres a chance she could be being bussed *i guess* (heavily heavily doubt tbqh) but i dont fully feel like fully entertaining either of these worlds without a flip. i personally think shes flippin v.

lol @ nut just assuming seth is a wolf lmao - then in the next post remembering wolf prs exist. like cmonn the girl is a villager

feel like arete would just be contributing to the dunk-fest on seth and moreso trying to stop people from finding him, rather than bringing up actual legitimate points in his favor. not a very strong read of mine since i didnt see a lot of action to back up their words and this is mostly based on What I Expect From Wolfrete but yeah its a better look than not tbh. and their fear that they'll be paired with seth if he flips w is kinda pure yeah

this post from hally has good thoughts wrt marl - i vibe with them
the series of posts here has some of the upbeat chaotic energy i expect from villamorl

i'm a HUGE sucker for emotions and seeing dya get upset at how people are treating them is hard for me to not assign some townpoints. otherwise i dont have many thoughts on them wrt d1 (but ugh this feels TMI-y considering their read on nut :/)
if wagons stay like this i'll probably be going dya just because of a few things i find as somewhat townie from alison
dya is my first iso to look into in the morning

ohmygod im finally caught up on everything
i finally understand what the hell is happening in this game lmao
i can see clearly now, the rain is gone

bye

Chloe, what do you find villagery from alison? that she seemingly has no agenda? And while I bus as a wolf, I never bus like this

Arete wrote: ↑Fri May 28, 2021 9:42 pm
dyachei wrote: ↑Fri May 28, 2021 9:40 pm
Arete wrote: ↑Fri May 28, 2021 9:39 pmwas Dya in CoV?
yes and on d1 i was like the first person to point out c4 ws nothing like he was in CoV

im just having second thoughts looking at his progression
hm

in my experience wolves don't have that sort of abrupt 180-with-no-explanation-whatsoever unless they're really bad at playing scum, like, generally they'll try to at least justify the read change a little bit

do you disagree with that general-statement or are you arguing that c4 is a really unusually bad wolf?

I see it more often than you'd expect and not always from bad wolves

Arete wrote: ↑Fri May 28, 2021 9:39 pmwas Dya in CoV?

yes and on d1 i was like the first person to point out c4 ws nothing like he was in CoV

im just having second thoughts looking at his progression

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