The Syndicate

Amy wrote: ↑Fri May 28, 2021 9:32 pm

staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Fri May 28, 2021 9:28 pm is it unreasonable for me to assume that outed wolf's wolf equity increases significantly if amy is a villager?

dont wanna seem like im setting up chops, but i was just thinking about how outed wolf and amy seem to have a unique dynamic where outed wolf is (presumably?) very good at correctly identifying amy's alignment, and he is confident that amy is a wolf. dyachei has a similar dynamic and claims to have the opposite impression. my gut tells me that an amy/dya wolfteam is too easy - it's just such a level 0 solve

for the record, nl's only played against my towngame once before this that i can recall, and that was rocks

every other time i've played against him i THINK has been a wolfgame

and he's caught me in most of those games, yes

but given current events, i'm not convinced that means he has a good read on me

dyachei wrote: ↑Fri May 28, 2021 9:28 pm

Amy wrote: ↑Fri May 28, 2021 9:28 pm dya what's your read on zack

maybe I'm pocketed but I kind of like his dgaf attitude

i don't think his tone in hydra was particularly gaf

think that attitude is pretty NAI for zack

i'm assuming you haven't given him too much thought beyond that?

c4e5g3d5 wrote: ↑Fri May 28, 2021 9:27 pm

dyachei wrote: ↑Fri May 28, 2021 9:21 pm

c4e5g3d5 wrote: ↑Fri May 28, 2021 9:19 pm

dyachei wrote: ↑Fri May 28, 2021 9:15 pm

c4e5g3d5 wrote: ↑Fri May 28, 2021 9:14 pm

dyachei wrote: ↑Fri May 28, 2021 8:58 pm @c4e5g3d5 that is the progression case. what the hell happened to make you 180 your read on spf that suddenly

Her posting got better

that's such a non answer

What... exactly are you looking for here
Do you think that's not a valid reason to townread someone?

i think you should be able to show me what posts and why

Yeah this is a wolf lol

"Hey everyone come look at this one read that changed"
"Not pulling quotes immediately? Sus."

Just finding some random petty shit to cling to

Busywork? Distraction? Fuck if I know.

Just take that explanation I just gave Dizzy if you want to understand my spf townread

Amy wrote: ↑Fri May 28, 2021 9:28 pm dya what's your read on zack

c4e5g3d5 wrote: ↑Fri May 28, 2021 9:19 pm

dyachei wrote: ↑Fri May 28, 2021 9:15 pm

c4e5g3d5 wrote: ↑Fri May 28, 2021 9:14 pm

dyachei wrote: ↑Fri May 28, 2021 8:58 pm @c4e5g3d5 that is the progression case. what the hell happened to make you 180 your read on spf that suddenly

Her posting got better

that's such a non answer

What... exactly are you looking for here
Do you think that's not a valid reason to townread someone?

Amy wrote: ↑Fri May 28, 2021 9:16 pm

dyachei wrote: ↑Fri May 28, 2021 9:15 pm the read hasn't weakened over time, my busy-ness has. I had work and now am dealing with some stuff on MU and trying to catch up on reading certain things

but like no one's listening to me anyway

give me a general overview of what you wanna do here

c4e5g3d5 wrote: ↑Fri May 28, 2021 9:14 pm

Chloe wrote: ↑Fri May 28, 2021 8:55 pm i honestly feel bad about it i just cant fuckin connect

maybe it'll take me a Night phase idk

im just
here

idk
hi

If it helps, I feel disconnected from the game, but it's because my brain is fried for completely unrelated reasons.

dyachei wrote: ↑Fri May 28, 2021 8:58 pm @c4e5g3d5 that is the progression case. what the hell happened to make you 180 your read on spf that suddenly

Her posting got better

c4e5g3d5 wrote: ↑Mon May 24, 2021 8:24 pm

dyachei wrote: ↑Mon May 24, 2021 8:22 pm

c4e5g3d5 wrote: ↑Mon May 24, 2021 8:21 pm Do I actually need to do something proactive about spf

what would you do? and why?

Kill

Because she randed wolf

c4e5g3d5 wrote: ↑Mon May 24, 2021 8:33 pm

staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Mon May 24, 2021 7:07 pm

Amy wrote: ↑Mon May 24, 2021 7:06 pm is now a good time to say that zack's opening post rubbed me the wrong way

probably just not used to him breaking kayfabe, but

in what way did it bother you?

Above: what bothered Amy
Below: "Hey Amy what bothered you?"

Doesn't look like a question actually meant to figure something out

staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Mon May 24, 2021 7:26 pm (i actually do sort of townread amy because i think that occam's razor points to her suspicion about zack being genuine)

Just general overexplanation, she could've just said "genuine" and have been done with it.

Little things, but they're things I very distinctly see from her wolf game and not from her town game. Her writing more words than she actually means is a tell I've caught her on quickly before.

c4e5g3d5 wrote: ↑Tue May 25, 2021 9:15 am

Tangrowth wrote: ↑Mon May 24, 2021 10:18 pm Does someone want to talk to me about how to find spf as town (or scum, for that matter)? I saw her play in some of Jay's games I spectated but beyond that I'm at a loss for what she's said so far, it was... thorough. But I don't think I'd call spf a town read or anything.

The best way I can describe it is

As town, she thinks
As wolf, she writes

In her wolf posts, there's some sense of architecture to the ideas, and she writes for show a lot. As town she plays by discovery, and her posts make it obvious she's thinking out loud. She's one of the easiest reads out there if you know what you're doing.

outed wolf wrote: ↑Mon May 24, 2021 10:53 pm You think this a couple hours into D1?

Amy wrote: ↑Mon May 24, 2021 10:54 pm you think the wolves are trying to shove through a cheap misdunk... 3 hours into a 48 hour d1?

Welcome to Alison
This is a thing that'll happen, don't mind it for now.

-----

Caught up, strongest reads off of memory are sunbae and Vulgard always town

c4e5g3d5 wrote: ↑Tue May 25, 2021 7:57 pm

bronana wrote: ↑Tue May 25, 2021 5:17 pm Plus any random grouping of five players has approximately a 75% chance of having at least one wolf, if my math is right.

Spoiler: show

1 - (13 / 17)^5 = 73.85% of at least one wolf

if you want to assume "I am town and I am not one of those five players" = 1 - (12 / 16)^5 = 76.3% of at least one wolf

There are some underlying assumptions about votes on a wagon being independent events which isn't really true, but whatever, close enough. Been awhile since I took any stats or probability courses though. Yes this a useless post a wolf could easily make, sue me.

Just gotta pop in with even more wolfy IIOA to say that players' alignments aren't independent so it would actually be

1- (13/17) * (12/16) * (11/15) * (10/14) * (9/13) = 56.1%

Since spf posted her own spf reading guide, here's my less boring spf reading guide from the same game. Spoiler alert, it worked.

c4e5g3d5 wrote: ↑Wed May 26, 2021 9:46 am Oh and spf's town lol

bronana wrote: ↑Fri May 28, 2021 5:39 pm if amy and dya are both wolves why on gods green earth did they kill hally instead of visor

nutella wrote: ↑Fri May 28, 2021 4:51 pm yeah alison and i are mafia teammates you got it good job bronana

staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Fri May 28, 2021 4:38 pm [VOTE: alison] aubergine

Vulgard wrote: ↑Fri May 28, 2021 4:04 pm Amy, why is Visor town?

@dyachei Here:

bronana wrote: ↑Wed May 26, 2021 4:29 am

Vulgard wrote: ↑Wed May 26, 2021 4:20 am

bronana wrote: ↑Tue May 25, 2021 8:08 pm gotta say if dizzy is a wolf i don't see the point of going to bat so vociferously for gavial like this, regardless of gavial's alignment

I don't see a point either, but can you walk me through your thought process?

at the time i was thinking a wolf would probably either bus to some degree or try to subtly steer the yeet elsewhere (if gav is a wolf), or encourage the wagon or at least not get in the way if he's town. Thinking about it now though I think it could make some sense as a TMI white knighting of a villager, or just some other kind of brazen play. Tangentially related, I'm a little worried that people cleared dizzy way too easily.

sunbae wrote: ↑Fri May 28, 2021 4:00 pm Hey Dya, I think you'd agree I've done a fair amount of attempting to figure out your alignment and stuff. Can you do me a favor and read up on c4 for me and tell me your thoughts? Like, not a "off the top of my head I think X" but after actually reading through their iso? I feel like that's a spot I've been calling town from gut reactions to posts and need an overview of again and could use some opinions. Plus, it would help having you branch out into other directions for a little bit for me.

bronana wrote: ↑Fri May 28, 2021 3:55 pm i think the amy/dya dynamic makes more sense to me as w/v or v/v than as w/w

like one is a wolf and because of their usual dynamic in games is reluctant to really go after the other and so doesn't know wtf to do (this applies more to amy than dya)

or they're both town and right on each other

play seems weird as w/w

Amy wrote: ↑Fri May 28, 2021 3:38 pm i would like for someone to read my dya thing, since it seems to be pertinent

Vulgard wrote: ↑Fri May 28, 2021 3:23 pm Bronana / Zack:

- First take on Gavial is that his posts didn't make any impression.
- Notes that Gavial seems to have a polarized meta but doesn't comment on it beyond that.
- Claims Gavial would get bussed hard if he was a wolf. ...For some reason, I dislike this comment. It looks TMI-ish to me, even though the actual wording is fine. I'll bring it up here for clarity.

bronana wrote: ↑Tue May 25, 2021 5:17 pm

staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Tue May 25, 2021 5:03 pm

Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Tue May 25, 2021 5:02 pm If you believe Gavial is mafia, we should chop someone on his wagon right now. There will be mafia there if Gavial is mafia.

how does that work?

I came into this game gavial would get bussed hard if he's a wolf, based on how his meta has been described.

Plus any random grouping of five players has approximately a 75% chance of having at least one wolf, if my math is right.

Spoiler: show

1 - (13 / 17)^5 = 73.85% of at least one wolf

if you want to assume "I am town and I am not one of those five players" = 1 - (12 / 16)^5 = 76.3% of at least one wolf

There are some underlying assumptions about votes on a wagon being independent events which isn't really true, but whatever, close enough. Been awhile since I took any stats or probability courses though. Yes this a useless post a wolf could easily make, sue me.

- Immediately followed by asking Gavial... this. I'm going to quote this post as well, so I can check if other people see what I'm seeing. I get the impression these two posts are TMI on Gavial being a villager, even though the actual wording looks fine.

bronana wrote: ↑Tue May 25, 2021 5:20 pm

Gavial wrote: ↑Tue May 25, 2021 5:18 pm Why do I have 5 players voting me?
Not that I really care much anyway since I’m multi-balling and I’m only VT.
Just a shame people don’t like me that much.

dude what is this weaksauce

where's the seth that's like "these are the wolves BLAM these are the town BAM im a GOD sheep me" ?

I really think this is Zack talking to someone he knows is a villager and checking if he's going to damn himself further or not.

- Calls Gavial outright mafia after this.
- Dya is the other wolfread at the time.
- Claims he doesn't see the point of Dizzy treating Gavial like they did regardless of Gavial's alignment. It's a sentiment I actually share and it's a major reason why I townread Dizzy. That said, I'm not sure if Zack is the person who came out with this take first, and I also find it decently likely this could come from a wolf, so I'm not awarding him many townpoints for it.
- Bounces off Amy's wolfread on Gavial and agrees (and reiterates) that Gavial is playing nothing like his towngame.
- I ask about his take on Dizzy implying Dizzy isn't a wolf because of their odd treatment of Gavial. Zack responds to it, and the response is FINE, but he writes an addendum that "he's a little worried that people cleared Dizzy way too easily." I dislike this. It's hedgy, and it also reads like "I think this points to Dizzy being town (treatment of Gavial) but they also don't deserve an easy clear so don't actually call them locktown please." I didn't notice this on my first reading, but I think it's wolfy now, unless Dizzy is a wolf (I don't think wolf!Zack adds this comment if he was talking about his partner Dizzy rather than v!Dizzy; he can just rep a townread without consequence, boosting his teammate's position in the game).
- Claims Gavial is doing nothing.
- Claims Gavial and KZA are his top wolfreads when Nutella asks him about... dya. When it comes to Dya, Zack apparently has no idea anymore, since he posted a shrug emoji.
- Has no idea what KZA is even posting, which is something I actually vibed with back when I saw it. Could see this being W/W with KZA, though. It isn't actually calling KZA mafia, it's more like a sign of confusion/exasperation/whatever.
- Wonders about Arete potentially townreading Gavial.
- Asks SPF about potential bussers of Gavial. Noting here that SPF is actually saying she's 70% confident Gavial's mafia, not 100%. Basically preflipping Gavial as mafia here, assuming the question is even genuine.
- Keeps discussing how nonsensical KZA's treatment of Gavial is. It looks pretty decent in a vacuum since he's discussing a wolf's nonsensical posting. The fact he's following up on his prior suspicion is a good look, I don't see him visibly pushing on KZA, though. I'm noting the absence of concern over Gavial's alignment; he does ask Arete why they're potentially TRing Gavial (that's the implication of their singular "oh?" aimed at Arete) but doesn't follow it up with any behavioral change or anything.
- Votes Gavial despite discussing KZA's nonsensical treatment of Gavial for a while. ...Hm.

Overall, I have several points of concern. The treatment of Gavial looks decent overall, but there are several points where I suspect Zack has TMI on Gavial being a villager, particularly in the two posts I put in quotes. There's also the little interaction we had about his read on Dizzy @ Dizzy's treatment of Gavial, where it felt like he didn't want Dizzy to be too townread from it despite voicing the townlean himself. He also has a profound lack of interest in Gavial, particularly after it became clear Gavial was going to be yeeted day 1. He does question KZA a fair bit, but never pushes for KZA over Gavial. He seems surprisingly content about the state of affairs, neither committing to the Gavial yeet too hard (outside of quietly supporting it) nor trying to get KZA yeeted (though he did call KZA's train of thought incomprehensible).

I still think Zack could be town despite this. It's possible I misattributed signs of TMI to his posts there, particularly since I admit the language itself shouldn't be concerning. But I still get the impression that he's just mafia.

staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Fri May 28, 2021 3:20 pm @dya - thanks - how does that play into your thought from a couple of posts ago that nutella OMGUS'ing you on the last page is making it easier for you to read her? has that helped move the needle for you in either direction even if you're still not sure?

dyachei wrote: ↑Fri May 28, 2021 2:37 pm

nutella wrote: ↑Fri May 28, 2021 2:26 pm cool dya's just a wolf probably


they refuse to explain what they mean about alison's strategy at all, theyre just handwaving about it to dismiss any argument for her being town

and i actually just dont believe they havent found me town yet

you're not doing your normal bouncing around thing this game. I'm so glad that you decided to OMGUS and such though. It helps me read you

staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Fri May 28, 2021 3:07 pm dyachei, what is your general read of nutella right now? do you have a stance on her one way or another? the exchange on the last page where you said that she felt less fluid to you made me think that you wolfread her, but i dont wanna misrepresent you

nutella wrote: ↑Fri May 28, 2021 3:06 pm also, dya, if you fully accept chloe as town, you should honor her read on me. i'm not saying fully accept godreads or whatever bc i know that's annoying (and a pain to wolf against especially lol), but if you really want to solve me at least consider it with some weight

ok that's all. if i say anything else i'll go further in a direction i dont really wanna go

dyachei wrote: ↑Fri May 28, 2021 3:03 pm I didnt even wolf read you lmao

maybe stop getting tilted at me for not doing what you want me to do.

I get what you want but until alison actually posts more do you think I'll be able to build on my case? answer honestly now

alright i just mean when you say i'm not fluid i find it hard to believe
and re: alison, fine. i want her to post more as well.

nutella wrote: ↑Fri May 28, 2021 2:54 pm

dyachei wrote: ↑Fri May 28, 2021 2:39 pm

nutella wrote: ↑Fri May 28, 2021 2:38 pm

dyachei wrote: ↑Fri May 28, 2021 2:37 pm

nutella wrote: ↑Fri May 28, 2021 2:26 pm cool dya's just a wolf probably


they refuse to explain what they mean about alison's strategy at all, theyre just handwaving about it to dismiss any argument for her being town

and i actually just dont believe they havent found me town yet

you're not doing your normal bouncing around thing this game. I'm so glad that you decided to OMGUS and such though. It helps me read you

then you haven't read my posts, i've bounced around a TON including on you

not like you normally do, no. you feel less fluid to me than normal

I have been fluid and transparent and you can see the stream-of-consciousness in my posts, I've changed my mind back and forth on multiple reads including you, sure it looks different because it's a post-capped game and I'm condensing more thoughts into single posts but I think it should be fairly clear if you actually read through my posts that I'm not holding back any ideas that pass into my head

The more you say dismissive things like this without backing them up the more I think you're just a wolf just throwing stuff at the wall rather than a villager with any kind of coherent approach to solving via the thread. But through a decent chunk of last night I considered you could be town-- if you are I understand wanting to just low-effort the game and push your strongest scumread in alison, but I also want you to develop your reasoning further both on that and on your read of me. I feel like you haven't really backed anything up especially with these assertions about me, and it really just feels like you're throwing shade to look contrarian and aren't actually interested in solving my alignment.

dyachei wrote: ↑Fri May 28, 2021 2:48 pm

nutella wrote: ↑Fri May 28, 2021 2:40 pm

dyachei wrote: ↑Fri May 28, 2021 2:38 pm it's tilting me you're just dismissive of my feelings on Alison

I'm literally not

Ive said multiple times that if you're town you may well be right

But I don't think you're town at the moment, and if you are I'd like you to consider all angles



you generally read me pretty well and you're just flinging shit at me here

you've been on my case for stupid little things since d1. sorry YOU think I'm flinging shit at you. Maybe consider your own actions here

yeah okay i'm just not engaging with you anymore. it's not stupid little things. it's your entire approach to the game, and when your only response is omgus like this, it's not a good look. back your shit up or die.

nutella wrote: ↑Fri May 28, 2021 2:40 pm

dyachei wrote: ↑Fri May 28, 2021 2:38 pm it's tilting me you're just dismissive of my feelings on Alison

I'm literally not

Ive said multiple times that if you're town you may well be right

But I don't think you're town at the moment, and if you are I'd like you to consider all angles



you generally read me pretty well and you're just flinging shit at me here

nutella wrote: ↑Fri May 28, 2021 2:38 pm

dyachei wrote: ↑Fri May 28, 2021 2:37 pm

nutella wrote: ↑Fri May 28, 2021 2:26 pm cool dya's just a wolf probably


they refuse to explain what they mean about alison's strategy at all, theyre just handwaving about it to dismiss any argument for her being town

and i actually just dont believe they havent found me town yet

you're not doing your normal bouncing around thing this game. I'm so glad that you decided to OMGUS and such though. It helps me read you

then you haven't read my posts, i've bounced around a TON including on you

Vulgard wrote: ↑Fri May 28, 2021 2:34 pm By the way, I've wolfed with Alison twice. She was LW one time, but still. I've already mentioned this before. Alison may be a smart player, but I think assuming she always pulls 300 IQ gigabrain plays is fallacious.

Will get back to my hunting in 30 minutes or so. Expect most of my content to come out today because tomorrow I'll be busy all day. Should be able to swap my vote if needed, though.

nutella wrote: ↑Fri May 28, 2021 2:26 pm cool dya's just a wolf probably


they refuse to explain what they mean about alison's strategy at all, theyre just handwaving about it to dismiss any argument for her being town

and i actually just dont believe they havent found me town yet

nutella wrote: ↑Fri May 28, 2021 2:20 pm

dyachei wrote: ↑Fri May 28, 2021 1:57 pm you keep getting frustrated at my process though. It's not dismissive to point out that alison is better than that. It's just fucking TRUE. Alison is usually highly involved in games and gives good reasons for her reads. she's not doing that here. so I guess suck eggs

you're still ENTIRELY missing my point and vulgard's

reread his post

he explains why alison's progression makes sense from an uninformed perspective, and why if she was a wolf her strategy would be different

and like.... this response is just continuing to be dismissive tbh. I've stated MULTIPLE times that I've seen Alison take a more laid back approach as town many times, and you're not actually delving into why you think her approach is indicative of her having wolf pov or not besides just saying "she had tmi" over and over

i'm really set off by this response because you're just not listening to anything i've said about alison at all


thanks for the takes on amy and zack

nutella wrote: ↑Fri May 28, 2021 1:46 pm

Spoiler: show

bronana wrote: ↑Fri May 28, 2021 4:50 am

nutella wrote: ↑Fri May 28, 2021 4:38 am trying to fall asleep and suddenly absurdly confident the team is just amy/dya/zack and everyone else is simply a villager

is this literally just the hydra game again but this time i'm a villager and I can't blame gh for my troubles

anyway i saw the amount of posts to backread, got to #1700 or so, decided to procrastinate reading the rest of this shit until tomorrow. tomorrow zack is not gonna like present zack

lolbye

bronana wrote: ↑Fri May 28, 2021 5:44 am [VOTE: dyslexicon] aubergine

omgus. I don't understand your case on me or why Nutella finds it so compelling, feels like you are maybe trying to bait me into a thunderdome as an avenue to generate content today

at some point searching my name I think I saw visor made a reads list wall with actual reasons and thought who even are you

I am not totally comfortable with Amy/dya but I don't really think they are wolves there I said it prepare your memes if one or both flips red

I think the consensus poe is probably bunk but have no good ideas myself for where to go, maybe some combo of dizzy/marl/Alison ... c4? some person being townread for doing stuff? are we are vulgard is town? why is visor so confident nutella is town

I wanted to go to sleep awhile ago but couldn't stop thinking about this shit even though I never fully caught up on the thread. mafia is so freaking dumb

classic shitty late night zack post people will hate

Amy wrote: ↑Fri May 28, 2021 5:49 am i hate my list actually

arete is too low, zack is too low, why can't i move sunbae higher, what am i doing with the dya/alison bullshit

someone is snowing me HARD

Amy wrote: ↑Fri May 28, 2021 5:54 am [VOTE: Alison] aubergine

i guess?

i'm having misgivings about dya, not because of anything they've done but because everyone else seems SO certain that they're onto something that i wonder if i'm a dumbass for wanting to townread them

and that's the primary thing giving me pause about my alison read

but i think alison's playing a fairly underwhelming game if town and i still think the seth thing is weird

though c4 did still have a cromulent point about the w/w vs w/v thing... i think? i haven't reread the interactions in question

and i'm not going to tonight

this post is a mess probably but i probably shouldn't be awake given my recent sleeping troubles

oof. these zack and amy posts only made me feel better about my solve

Spoiler: show

Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Fri May 28, 2021 7:06 am

Marluxion wrote: ↑Fri May 28, 2021 6:39 am

Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Fri May 28, 2021 3:59 am But they did in fact TMI Gavial town in the most classical lolwolf defending the top town wagon. I will see what others say about this.

You kinda did the same thing though

I do not believe I did!
If you think otherwise, you must be misunderstanding something, which I will happily explain to you, or at least attempt! Because if I at any point was more certain about Gavial on D1, it was that he was probably mafia. Although that confidence gradually disappeared towards EoD!

Can you tell us what the two smaller reasons are? Even if they dont make sense to us or convince us that swagged-out-lissa is scum, they might help us find you if you're town

Yes, I can!

One of them I have mentioned already. Zack said it was reasonable to be confused about a strong player posting the way I did D1, (which apparently was so crazy and trolly to the likes of which nobody had ever seen!) when I was a strong player as far as he knew. It just reminded me of a player in champs who said the same thing to me, and he was mafia, and I speculate whether mafia would be more cognisant of the relative strength of players. The issue also becomes whether or not there is component of TMI in the reaction: "Why is this person posting like this when they could be doing better?" However, I am not so sure whether this component exists in Zacks musings as much as it did when it happened to me last time (where the message was "Just do your thing, I've heard you're good!" which does seem more TMI-ish.)

So I'm not sure about the strength of this, but it reminded me of another situation.
The second thing is even weaker, and I'm not sure it's meaningful at all:

bronana wrote: ↑Tue May 25, 2021 2:15 pm

c4e5g3d5 wrote: ↑Tue May 25, 2021 11:50 am Sorta soulread Dizzy v.

a) did you just TMI dizzy?

To which my internal response was "Did YOU just TMI me town?"

I am confident I have seen scum accuse town of TMI when they have correct reads.
The way c4 delivered his read did not warrant this response from Zack imo. It doesn't flow well.

However, this is not to say that town cannot also do this!

---

So again, this may not be very meaningful for others or even myself at this point, but this is what I thought.

I also have no made my mind up about Zack at all. Some aspects of his response to me I find rather towny. For example his annoyance of me breaking post cap (whoops, didn't realise there was post cap lol) "just" to call him scum. But I will not disrespect him enough to not give towny responses to pressure! This is just one player that has done things that I want to talk about and investigate further. If I had made my mind up, I would not still be talking about it!

these additional points from dizzy i think are actually really good. those are both the kind of things that can show actual tmi from a wolf

Spoiler: show

Vulgard wrote: ↑Fri May 28, 2021 8:14 am Dizzy's take on KZA's sparse ISO is the one I agree with the most. Specifically with Nutella being a likely villager because it's KZA's first townread. And also because nutella has a somewhat polarized meta as far as I understand it, making townreading wolf!nutella there redundant since they'll be outed anyway.

I'm finally caught up and I think Amy's day phase so far hasn't been great. The vote on Alison specifically skeeves me out, because I've read all these arguments about dya/Amy having partner equity, and her suddenly voting the person dya's been pushing all game feels wrong. She's been going through the motions and posting reads, reads I actually didn't hate, but then she goes completely against them and decides to follow dya on their Alison wagon. It looks like she's trying to get a misyeet on Alison before she and her partner dya get yeeted. Dya being the other top wagon at the moment adds credibility to this theory.

At this point my read on Alison is less dependent on Alison and more on how her slot's been treated throughout the game. If Amy/dya are wolves then Alison is pretty much always town. If Amy/dya are town, more specifically dya, Alison's probably a wolf. In that world, I'm simply inclined to believe dya's right about their non-consensus wolfread. I specifically get flashback to Champs finale where this exact thing happened.

I usually hate preflips but yeah.

Might change my mind about this when I get to ISOing.

Vulgard wrote: ↑Fri May 28, 2021 10:56 am The - s are in chronological order.

Alison:

- Assumes that Gavial is "anti-town" rather than "mafia" in her very first post about Gavial. Calls his behavior NAI despite the presence of metareads in the thread at that point. (Nevermind that those meta reads were wrong, this is still important.)
- Calls Gavial "rand" and calls the people who vote for him based on him being anti-town "lazy."
- Claims Dizzy defending Gavial is a good look for Dizzy because it'd be a bad move for wolf!Dizzy regardless of Gavial's alignment. I actually agree with this point. Mentions that there's a solid chance of Gavial being a wolf.
- Responds to Amy's wolfread on Gavial by saying she isn't closed off to the possibility of Gavial being mafia.
- "I'm not ready to lock Gavial town." Weird progression jump there. It's like she's bouncing around a limbo where she sometimes implies Gavial's town and sometimes doesn't. This megahedge is odd.
- Calls Gavial's level of caring about the game NAI, thus continuing to refuse to call Gavial's alignment.
- Claims she isn't a Gavial expert.
- Continues to push the line that Gavial's NAI to her.
- Calls Gavial's VT claim kinda towny.

I... think this looks towny when viewed as a whole and in-context? KZA was the main CW yesterday, and KZA was a wolf. Alison spending the entire day refusing to call Gavial's alignment doesn't seem like a wolf play. I think she'd take one of two stances here: either bus or just push Gavial and listen to people's metareads. I'd even argue doing the latter benefits Alison more - not only does she get a misyeet, but she takes no blame for it, since she had given a lot of consideration toward Gavial's alignment and she wasn't the person with the mistaken metareads on Gavial. Her calling Gavial's VT claim "kinda towny" close to EoD also makes it more likely KZA gets yeeted, which prevents the wolves from getting a rolecop check. Their chances of getting it were tiny last night, since KZA was always getting vigged (they'd have to RB exactly the vig), and KZA would go day 2 anyway in that case. Still, it would be beneficial for the wolves (1 rolecop check is better than 0), and Alison didn't go for it. My impression of her wolfgame is that she knows what's optimal and what isn't. In that case, she didn't have much to lose by just accepting the Gavial push and joining it. In fact, her contrarian stance on Gavial is what got her scumread in the first place, yet another point in favor of Alison being town.

Might not be able to get all of these out, but I wanted to get this one out specifically.

good vulgard posts that i agree with

also the one about amy which is getting me to consider a world where amy is a wolf and dya isn't

Spoiler: show

dyachei wrote: ↑Fri May 28, 2021 11:30 am im kind of offended people think i havent given reads outside of alison because i have

i'm also solidifying my read on tangy/chloe today. I think chloe's behavior in thread makes sense from her perspective as a sub thrown into this game. I like that she's taking small bites to read people instead of trying everyone at once? feel like a wolf would share reads more certainly than she has

dyachei wrote: ↑Fri May 28, 2021 11:35 am I think your townread of alison is naive. I think it looks at level 1 play and I think alison plays at a higher level than that.

do you think there was actually a chance kza gets elimmed yesterday?

dyachei wrote: ↑Fri May 28, 2021 11:40 am

Vulgard wrote: ↑Fri May 28, 2021 11:37 am

dyachei wrote: ↑Fri May 28, 2021 11:35 am I think your townread of alison is naive. I think it looks at level 1 play and I think alison plays at a higher level than that.

do you think there was actually a chance kza gets elimmed yesterday?

What's the "higher-level" play Alison would've been doing there? Explain what you think her motivations for this could've been.

I think she was just TMI-ing someone that's clearly not like the others in this playlist (and lhf) to look good. alison can be very manipulative with her reads, she knows how people perceive them

you're defensive about having given more reads and yet... i just feel like every time you enter thread your focus is so narrow and you only reply to like 2 specific things at a time and i never know what your like, broader thoughts are at any given time

would love more transparency into your thoughts in general, i get that it's a light game and you dont want to put in a ton of effort or change your style but i just feel like some entire dimension is missing

like i can name some of your townreads, like chloe, visor, amy, but i don't have a lot of insight into your pov

i do fully agree with you about chloe, i'm quite confident she's just a villager at this point.

also, i think your response to vulgard's alison read is dismissive and shallow. it's like you're waving your hand and saying "no alison is better than that and would have deeper strategy" without actually digging into vulgard's reasoning and how he is in fact accounting for that. it also seems contradictory to say "she's aware of how her reads make her look, and also she obviously had TMI." honestly if you're town i think there's a decent chance you are right about alison by sheer poe, but i want to see you actually considering the angles of why her sorta messy progression on gav might actually come from an uninformed place.

finally, would love to hear more thoughts from you specifically on amy and zack with an updated view to their posts this phase and what you think they are accomplishing in thread, and what you think of the gripes that i, visor, vulgard, dizzy, etc have expressed. i'd like you to examine whether your earlier reasons to townread amy have really held up through d2.

Vulgard wrote: ↑Fri May 28, 2021 12:21 pm

Vulgard wrote: ↑Fri May 28, 2021 7:56 am Visor is a wolf.

I do not have an argument to back this up.

Discuss.

I actually did want people to discuss this because I personally have no idea how to read him as of right now and it's day 2.

Vulgard wrote: ↑Fri May 28, 2021 11:37 am

dyachei wrote: ↑Fri May 28, 2021 11:35 am I think your townread of alison is naive. I think it looks at level 1 play and I think alison plays at a higher level than that.

do you think there was actually a chance kza gets elimmed yesterday?

What's the "higher-level" play Alison would've been doing there? Explain what you think her motivations for this could've been.

Vulgard wrote: ↑Fri May 28, 2021 11:37 am There was a real KZA wagon at various points d1, including EoD. He doesn't survive n1 99% of the time because of the n1 vig existing and the various calls to vig him, but there was the 1% chance of the vig getting roleblocked which I'm trying to take into account.

sunbae wrote: ↑Thu May 27, 2021 9:38 pm

Amy wrote: ↑Thu May 27, 2021 9:30 pm

sunbae wrote: ↑Thu May 27, 2021 9:29 pm I kinda wanna just yeet alison, marl, and nutella into the great sky daddy yee haw

woah wait did i miss the part where you're scumreading nutella

talk to me about that one because i pretty strongly disagree

nutellas posts regarding gav and kza read to me as someone that knows both are flipping by start of d2 and is just getting the easy kza "cred"

Off Topic

Hally: the play makes no sense from kza's perspective if he's partnered with gav
it's possible he's tmi-ing him town or it's possible he's town with a ??? take but i dont see what kza has to gain from his posts on gav if they are partnered

Nutella: i think it's decently likely theyre just both wolves

it's not like kza really committed to a strong read on gav, just sort of waved his hand a bit

it's possible he has tmi and gav is actually town but meh

Off Topic

Nutella: vulgards confidence on gav flipping wolf solidifies mine as well, though I was already pretty confident based on how he's behaving

probably keeping symbolic vote on dya for the heck of it

Kza us probably just a wolf too atp

Off Topic

c4: do i need to bother making a read on kza

nutella: na, assuming gav chop vig get kza

Off Topic

amy: i think we stick with gav here?

Nutella: yeah it's prob better to just stick with him

idk

my vote is on kza and i think he has an equal if not higher chance of flipping wolf and i'd be happy with either going over

fight me on that if you want, i get the appeal of just flipping gav regardless

That is someone that knows Gav is flipping villa and kza is dead too and wants the kza cred early

bronana wrote: ↑Thu May 27, 2021 9:24 pm

dyachei wrote: ↑Thu May 27, 2021 9:22 pm

nutella wrote: ↑Thu May 27, 2021 9:20 pm

dyachei wrote: ↑Thu May 27, 2021 9:15 pm like why would my read on alison change because what I thought yesterday actually happened spf

i still don't understand what your view was on gav at any point yesterday, like at points you seemed to fully endorse his wagon and think he was going to flip wolf, but you kept also saying that if he didn't then alison w

it just all feels a little convenient to me and i didn't find a coherent thread through your posts as to whether you ever directly suspected gav

i struggled with his wagon all day yesterday. I told myself pre game I wouldn't just vote him because he's not one of the people I enjoy playing with so I treated him early like he was lhf and not a real read. By the end of the day I still wasnt sure becuase I had a stronger wolf read on alison and she seemed to be treating him as a villager. I ended up on him at EOD because I wanted my vote to count and kza felt like rand

hmm? you called kza a wolf lean at eod with your last post

dyachei wrote: ↑Wed May 26, 2021 5:37 pm

c4e5g3d5 wrote: ↑Wed May 26, 2021 5:35 pm spf sunbae Vulgard 3/3 core
nut prolly threadspewed
Couldn't give fewer shits about dya unless Seth flips green
Couldn't give fewer shits about Hally and Zack unless KZA flips green

Alison
Amy
Arete
Dyslexicon
Marluxion
outed wolf
Tangrowth

Someone gimme their most urgent legacy top townie in that bunch

amy

and with that, I'm done posting so here's a reads list

V
Amy
Tangy

V lean
c4
sunbae
vulgard

dunno what to do with
nutella
hally
zack
visor
dizzy
arete
spf

w lean
gav
kza

w
alison

bronana wrote: ↑Thu May 27, 2021 9:20 pm why is it weird that dya is saying the same thing about alison now?

they went hard after alison d1, alison is still alive and has not really changed in any significant way since then so ... ?

nutella wrote: ↑Thu May 27, 2021 9:20 pm

dyachei wrote: ↑Thu May 27, 2021 9:15 pm like why would my read on alison change because what I thought yesterday actually happened spf

i still don't understand what your view was on gav at any point yesterday, like at points you seemed to fully endorse his wagon and think he was going to flip wolf, but you kept also saying that if he didn't then alison w

it just all feels a little convenient to me and i didn't find a coherent thread through your posts as to whether you ever directly suspected gav

staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Thu May 27, 2021 9:13 pm

dyachei wrote: ↑Thu May 27, 2021 9:10 pm

Alison wrote: ↑Tue May 25, 2021 9:05 pm

staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Tue May 25, 2021 9:03 pm i'm not voting gavial for being anti-town. he can be anti-town all he wants. i'm voting gavial for being wolfy. i am willing to listen if people feel that he's still within his village meta or if they feel that he's rand, but i dont get why youre framing the votes on gavial as being about gavial being "anti-town" when they're actually about gavial being wolfy

Because I'm hearing people like dya say that he's anti-town, and I think Gavial is rand. So I put in my two cents about Gavial's meta.

like this, sunbae. she knew I was calling gav anti-town but she was still catching up on the game

she mentioned a couple of times that she was catching up with the thread out of order though, yeah? so why is it wolfy for her to catch-up in that specific way? is the implication that you think alison was told by her partners that you were calling gav anti-town? or that she was pretending to re-read?

an issue i've been having is that i notice a sense of repetition in your posts (this was something i pointed out on d1 as well, but to a lesser extent) - the point that you're making about alison right now is the same point that you made about her on d1. the point that you made about tangrowth a couple of posts ago is the same point you made about her on d1. all of these points are logical, but i don't get the sense that your reads and your overall understanding of the game is shifting as the game progresses - it's feel to me more like you've chosen a couple of specific names (alison, tangygrowth) to focus on and reiterate the same narratives about

that might not be entirely fair to you, but it's the impression i've gotten so far

sunbae wrote: ↑Thu May 27, 2021 9:07 pm Understandable re: can't explain it better. Sadly I don't have the most experience (though the little experience I do have has been massively pleasant!) so it's hard for me to follow that one.

You got any SPF thoughts? Seems like people are locking in town there but i gotta be honest, I got super spooked with pr-hally getting blasted overnight because I know spf/hally are like, super knowledgeable with each other lol

Alison wrote: ↑Tue May 25, 2021 9:05 pm

staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Tue May 25, 2021 9:03 pm i'm not voting gavial for being anti-town. he can be anti-town all he wants. i'm voting gavial for being wolfy. i am willing to listen if people feel that he's still within his village meta or if they feel that he's rand, but i dont get why youre framing the votes on gavial as being about gavial being "anti-town" when they're actually about gavial being wolfy

Because I'm hearing people like dya say that he's anti-town, and I think Gavial is rand. So I put in my two cents about Gavial's meta.