The Syndicate

thats fair

i was mulling over thinking if psi is that ballsy to powerwolf like that, and she did start imitating my tone and stuff for her facetous posts. could have whiteknighted/pocketed me

dunno

nutella wrote: ↑Mon Dec 07, 2020 9:35 pm If you're town psi is sus and ironically I'd have to flip my poe lmao

hows that?

nutella wrote: ↑Mon Dec 07, 2020 9:34 pm I don't care about your vote since you're probably wolf lol it's mostly dunya's that was bad since those two had essentially agreed to mason earlier.

she identified me as town and voted to save me

fmpov it was objectively a good play

well techicanlly u arent cuz if ur town u dont know if im town yet

but u know. etc etc. assume u know im town for the sake of argument

nutella wrote: ↑Mon Dec 07, 2020 9:32 pm

tutuu wrote: ↑Mon Dec 07, 2020 9:29 pm i townread nanook so u guys r silly for killing him

but i scumread tutuu so if we kill her i wont kick myself over it its her fault that i didnt townread her

I'm talking about a simple fucking poe strategy. If you're a villager in my poe so be it. I'm not straying from that poe just because of some sb leveling wifom.

nanook was in my poe. i killed in my poe

i was wrong on at least 1 member in my poe. too bad

u are wrong ot at least 1 member in your poe. you are objectively at the literal exact same position as me. get off ur high horse

i townread nanook so u guys r silly for killing him

but i scumread tutuu so if we kill her i wont kick myself over it its her fault that i didnt townread her

we have 2 more guaranteed yeets, i am going to yeet epi and marmot, i dont think im that hard to find as town, make sure psi isn't pocketing us and we will still win

nutella wrote: ↑Mon Dec 07, 2020 8:08 pm

tutuu wrote: ↑Mon Dec 07, 2020 8:06 pm

nutella wrote: ↑Mon Dec 07, 2020 7:59 pm That was not the time to wave off a perfectly good poe and I am supremely disappointed in everyone who voted there who is town.

considering im town from my pov u arent exactly doing much better than the rest of us

You are in the poe. Nanook fucking wasn't, he was obvtown and I wish the others had seen that, maybe I'm responsible for not making that clear but come on

We had a fairly consensus poe of you/marmot/epi I really don't get how the votes on nanook started

what im saying is you getting pissy at other people for killing a villager u thought was obvtown is silly, considering u tried very hard, all day, to kill a villager (who is obvtown to some) yourself

nutella wrote: ↑Mon Dec 07, 2020 7:59 pm That was not the time to wave off a perfectly good poe and I am supremely disappointed in everyone who voted there who is town.

considering im town from my pov u arent exactly doing much better than the rest of us

clearly the way you took the "cool. that post wasn't aimed at you, it was aimed at nanook and nutella" was just the way it should have been taken.

dunya wrote: ↑Mon Dec 07, 2020 6:52 pm I can comment on any post I want to, tutuu. No post made in this game is for only a select number of people.

I said I didn't care about all that because it's wifom. Wifom is never a good defence.

Telling me it's not for me WAS rude, so yeah, I don't like playing with someone who is going to have that sort of attitude with me in a game I'm trying to enjoy tbh, didn't appreciate it.

its okay for you to say out of nowhere that you dont care about my post that isnt aimed at you as if you are an arbiter of justice who gets to decide whats a good defense and whats not

but its not okay for me to tell you off

its okay for you to say "i dont care about this"

but me telling u "ok. its not for u" is rude. it ruins your enjoyment

my perception that i found your words rude is irrelevant. my feeling that it ruins my enjoyment is irrelevant. you can comment on whatever you want, anyway you want.

i do not have the same privilege as you.

dunya wrote: ↑Sun Dec 06, 2020 2:25 pm

tutuu wrote: ↑Sun Dec 06, 2020 2:17 pm

NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Sun Dec 06, 2020 2:08 pm Six months is not that long tbf

nanook has seen first handedly people scumreading me due to finding my tone weird, he has also seen first handedly me pocketing ppl in that scum game that just ended by me falling back to doing the thing people want to see from me (the way that i often used to have my tone before)

if nanook is town he can't find me as town here? he can't clear this misunderstanding? why is he further adding shade to my defense by saying six months isn't that long, and i could be scum because im different from six months ago?

@nutella who also said that she was surprised that i was scum in that game (because presumably i copied the town meta thats wanted from me perfectly) - she also cant see that im being stubborn town here for not confronting to peer pressure and doing what i want?

This is all wifom and I don't care about it

Your poe is everyone except me...I don't buy >that<

imagine me getting tunneled by multiple ppl and trying to explain why im town, having someone else come in and interject that they don't care about it, have me bite my tongue and simply point out that you saying that you dont care about it is uncalled for since its not aimed at you, hear from you that you dont like playing with me, swallow that one too and not respond, carry on playing the game, and now i come and i read that i was the rude one

NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Mon Dec 07, 2020 6:36 pm Also at least three of you should feel no small amount of shame rn

you vote parked me the entire day without giving a read on me when i killed wolf d1 just like u, i feel no shame shrug

dunya wrote: ↑Mon Dec 07, 2020 5:28 pm Can't believe I'm doing this.

I don't feel it's Marmot
I think Epi is town
I don't think mafia tutuu gonna be so offhanded and kinda rude to me cos I'm scum reading her

I don't like that nanook didn't mention esooa once in his iso before I voted for her.

So.... voting nanook.

this is rich coming from someone who said that they don't like playing with me because i pointed out that one of my posts wasn't aimed at them when they told me that they don't care about that post

it was definitely me who was the rude one

Yes i am

Epignosis redemption arc. I love it

Turns out Epi is a GOAT player

Im locked on nanook everyone else is town

im bored and burnt out, i am just going to come at eod to self-pres vote. wont be reading anything

every time a card is pulled, the mafia would have a chance equal to 1 divided by the number of cards remaining in deck to pull an extra green card

i think i can use the same numbers from before, i just need to add this. thing?

won winrate is 39.5% assuming no 8 ball kills. i can calculate the odds of 0 8ball kills, but then i have to account that sometimes game ends in f3 and sometimes in f5. so that branches off in two directions

and THEN i need to calculate for every day. like. i already branched it before. f5 vs f3

if i branch it twice again now, does that mean i need to end up with 4 branches if i follow this way of calculating it?

is there no smarter way to solve this

ok so, how to calculate odds of this. lets imagine night kills do not exist. you have a deck of 8 cards. 6 green and 2 red cards. you draw one each turn (yeet). what is the chance that you end in a situation where there are 2 remaining cards in the deck and one of them is red, or, there are 4 remaining cards in the deck and 2 of them are red (scum win)

the second one is easy. 6/8 * 5/7 * 4/6 * 3/5 = 360 / 1680 = 0.21 (roughly). so 21% to draw 4 consecutive green cards (scum win)

then, in the 79% that this does not happen (not scum win at f5), one mafia was yeeted at some point / one red card was pulled

you have 4 cards, 1 red and 3 green. whats the chance for town win? you have 2 chances to draw the red card, so 3/4 * 2/3 are the chances to not draw it (50%), so 50% to draw it

so in this scenario, the scum win% is 21% from earlier + 79%/2 = 60.5%. and town win ratio would be 39.5%

and that is without any night kills, which always hit town (always pull a green card). that would lower town win% even further, although calculating that feels tricky.

so no, bad idea. bad bad bad idea

i am actually surprised that it would end up so much below 50%. i wonder if i did the math wrong somewhere, or if not, its just surprising. interesting

and i wonder if its really that tricky to calculate the town winrate with the added complexity of 8ball nightkills

i am being pretty literal

PSINightmareEmpower wrote: ↑Sun Dec 06, 2020 7:17 pm

PSINightmareEmpower wrote: ↑Sun Dec 06, 2020 7:16 pm But that's boring

What's the point of playing if we're never going to do anything

Besides DDL would just modkill us anyway

Edit but not really: I just realized that's not the point, you weren't suggesting it's a good idea you were just theorizing

Sorry I took it too literally

aww its okay pat pat

actually i wonder if the optimal way to win this setup was to agree to literally not post

we all agree to not post and rng our yeets every day

there's a high concentration of mafia members, and also mafia would have no damn clue who to 8ball and we could probably get away with very few 8ball yeets, i think town winrate would be above 50%

nutella was the d1 8ball i bet i bet i bet

PSI best player in the world. respect

u are our last hope

Esooa wrote: ↑Fri Dec 04, 2020 9:56 am

dunya wrote: ↑Fri Dec 04, 2020 9:49 am

Esooa wrote: ↑Fri Dec 04, 2020 9:44 am So I also feel most comfortable voting nutella cause she's not exactly LHF like the others I'd usually be ok with voting for

i don't understand this part. you're ok with voting for low-hanging fruit? who is LHF in this game in your opinion?

I'm generally pretty ok with voting LHF cause I.E. killing a player like epi who seems pretty good will be a lot worse when he flips town compared to someone like Marmot (not offense to him just picking up from the thread he's pretty LHF xd). And I don't have very good reads yet which is mb, but because of that I generally would default to voting someone who's more scummy on average

and on the PSI thing, I guess I can see what you mean by she would make it up as a weird response to pressure as maf. I guess I thought it made sense cause linki is annoying but it wouldn't really change my posts lol

yes, esooa is absolutely a player who would forget that she isn't supposed to know that epi is town and she isn't supposed to let everyone else know this

scumslips like this are definitely a thing that exist, and esooa is definitely prone to making them

hell yea PSI go GET EM GURL

DAB on the haters

everyone b like "REEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE IF U DONT SCUMREAD TUTU WE GONNA BEAT YO ASS WE GONNA MESS U UP REAL GOOD U BETTER LISTEN AND VOTE TUTU OR ELSE"

BUT PSI IS LIKE

"HELL NAW BITCH GET OFF MY FUCKING FACE I AINT DOING SHIT DAB DAB DAB DAB DAB DAB DAB"

nutella wrote: ↑Sun Dec 06, 2020 6:44 pm ....yeah, we chop tutuu over epi here

psi pls

look at where esooa groups you with tutuu as townreads

psi actually knows whats up

dont listen to nutella, psi. trust yourself and you will be right

[VOTE: nanook] aubergine

i wish to have my vote placed on my scumread, this makes me feel the best, i will obviously change it at eod

PSINightmareEmpower wrote: ↑Sun Dec 06, 2020 6:24 pm If there's anyone on the Tutuu wagon who townreads me and trusts my takes I would encourage you to vote Epi because I sincerely believe this is the correct chop and I really think chopping Tutuu is a mistake

spec chat's probably laughing about how misguided and overconfident I am

i respect that

PSI gives me protagonist vibes

the silent girl at the back of the class that doesn't say much (and she definitely has circular big glasses like harry potter). and shes a huge nerd and bookworm

BUT, one day, a criminal walks in the school and threatens everyone to give them money at gunpoint. the whole class panicks and doesn't know what to do, but PSI pushes up her glasses to her face (who reflect the white light from the windows), she naruto ninja runs towards the assailant and drop kicks him (while shes doing it the camerawork from the matrix kick in and they show her from all angles) and then after she saved the day she turns towards the camera, she does a split, and the assailant explodes

@Marmot do u remember when i said that im a pitcher and you're a baseball and im gonna throw you to f3 so hard that you will escape the stratosphere and you were like "WHEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE"

thats gonna happen to u if u dont help out ur friend tutuu with a vote on epi!!!!! please!!!!! im still gonna die but just for the sake of showing off that we're independent thinkers that don't conform to the hivemind people who r trying to lead the town!!!

voted epi for self-pres

maybe my friend marmot can help me too

we still lose 3 to 4 votes but we will die as champions

tutuu
dunya
nutella
PSI
marmot
epi
nook

PSINightmareEmpower wrote: ↑Sun Dec 06, 2020 6:07 pm I'm starting to think I'm just so incredibly convinced that Epi is the last scum that I can't see anyone else as scum anymore

This is probably a hard tunnel or something but I don't really feel like it's a tunnel it just feels like I solved the game

I shouldn't be this confident but I legitimately just can't see it any other way

alright, i can see that ur town now.

maybe it could be epi

PSINightmareEmpower wrote: ↑Sun Dec 06, 2020 6:04 pm

tutuu wrote: ↑Sun Dec 06, 2020 5:59 pm

PSINightmareEmpower wrote: ↑Sun Dec 06, 2020 5:57 pm Tutuu still feels townie to me, but she's slipping down. I honestly don't know what to think about her at this point.

i think that you dont know what to think about me at this point because you have the correct read that im town, but you also feel the need to conform to the peer pressure of everyone else saying im mafia

Actually you're right, but it's also because you just finished a game where you were scum and apparently you did super well and tricked everybody so now I'm like "well the bar for Tutuu towniness is super high now, so maybe what she's done in this game isn't enough to warrent a townread"

Bleh I can't think of you as anything but town but I don't want to be wrong

nah, only nanook was a player (shortly) in that game, and nutella was in the unspoiled spec chat i believe. but none of them seem to have followed that game that closely + if nanook is mafia then has a reason for not bringing up his past experiences with ppl being wrong on their reads on me

people have just been wrongly reading me every game lately. in this perc game i played with nook they all piled up on me and yeeted me instead of a mechanically confirmed mafia, thats just how much they wanted me dead. in this finished scum game on the syndicate i was consensus townread and i was whooping some ass left and right

its not that my bar for townyness is super mega high, its just that people seem to read me the opposite of what i am

i am a consensus scumread now - guess my alignment

PSINightmareEmpower wrote: ↑Sun Dec 06, 2020 5:57 pm Tutuu still feels townie to me, but she's slipping down. I honestly don't know what to think about her at this point.

i think that you dont know what to think about me at this point because you have the correct read that im town, but you also feel the need to conform to the peer pressure of everyone else saying im mafia

its really good, you should watch

@nutella have you seen devilman crybaby?

wait im in the northern hemisphere too lol

ur right, i didnt know why i thought winter started earlier

autumn in december? do you live close to the equator?

am i wrong to think that no matter what i post is going to invoke a knee jerk reaction of people scumreading it due to their confirmation bias?

i am still town ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

i would prefer to win over to lose, and i would be happy for other members of the town to townread me

but not sure if there's much i can do in this position under this death tunnel from multiple ppl

i believe that the final mafia is nanook, i could be wrong

hammer would be nice, 36 hours will be a drag

well maybe its not different

i was just responding to you saying "naw"

NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Sun Dec 06, 2020 3:56 pm Naw 3 locks the game as long as we avoid NKs

Which isn’t a certainty but

I think we’ll probably be ok

i understood that you're talking about 3 people that you're certain are town but that's different from what i talked about

u need to pick 1 more person for the final 4

dunya + nutella + nanook + ?

psi or epi

i would take epi

if marmot is town though we all ought to give him kudos (for correctly townreading me)

it takes bravery to go against the town consensus, and not only do that, but also be right

really dont know who fooled me if nanook is town

maybe its just marmot and i want him to be finally town cuz i feel for him when he said in wolf chat that he always gets pressured and he was delighted when i hard defended him

mafia having their night kill be optional will be rough

means there will be no 1v2, no matter what it will be a 1v3 at the end

yea i sincerely doubt im marked

if you're set on killing me today might be good because we will save 1 townie's life

cool, that post wasn't directed at you, it was directed at nanook and nutella

conform