The Syndicate

i don’t think i’m ever voting you or sabie today as it stands. if we miss ill revisit in the night phase in case i die but not today

Ranmilia wrote: ↑Wed Sep 30, 2020 1:15 am YEAH SAME

ahem

keep talkin to me though. how's your ran tinfoil about how i'm pocketing sabie doing?

i’m not tinfoiling you like, i don’t think you would try to shut down mp’s push on me if you’re mafia. it would be in your interest to fan the flames there right? or wait, no because i have to die over you if you’re mafia but if im more tinfoiled than you it will look weird if i die because you presumably should have. so ig there is a world where you’re defending me because you’re setting up to kill me. but that seems kinda silly. like, our thoughts have been pretty in alignment ever since you subbed in and idk why you would have to bus cayvie. so i think you’re just town

i really wanna hear more from mist/mp about their thoughts on each other

mist not most*

i still want to reread D1 to refresh my memory on how everyone treated cayvie because it feels so long ago atp. i’ll have time to do that tomorrow because it’s my day off. i think im voting between mp and most this day but i haven’t decided which yet so hopefully that reread will help

Ranmilia wrote: ↑Wed Sep 30, 2020 12:52 am (something something boxed in and trying to expand the poe

just take me out back and old yeller me. i've become my own nightmare.)

I think it is actually bad, agree with all the stuff Hally just said, plus more. There wasn't much basis at that point in time for MP7 to confidently townread Mist and swing around that hard, and I think there's no way it's correct to push a Hally case on 5 in that spot.

"Mist? Nah too easy" isn't a thought she should be having here. What I've been looking for from Mist and MP7, and the reason I've been dragging my heels trying to get them to post, is to see the element of "oh dear, I could've screwed up this game badly by townreading cayvie, time to reevaluate."

I don't... love either of their reactions, but there's only one wolf, and currently I'm buying Mist's feeling crushed more than MP7's swing to Hally.

(The food situation here is still not good but I have procured and eaten a food.)

what don’t you like about mist’s reaction? i assume that she’s not giving more of her own thoughts?

(also glad to hear about the food )

Mistyx wrote: ↑Tue Sep 29, 2020 10:01 pm for what it's worth and i'm only posting this because y'all deserve an explanation, not because it'll make me feel better at all

i'm not posting much today because i'm overcommitted again and thinking about how little i'm doing is making me spiral more instead of motivating me, because my brain hates me or something like that

...interestingly enough, that's way more common in my wolf games, but i guess this is an exception to the rule

Ranmilia wrote: ↑Tue Sep 29, 2020 9:58 pm Like where does MP7 arrive at a townread on Mist and not a townread on Hally, to this extent, where is that from? That is a big question I have here.

idk i wanna hear mp’s current thoughts on mist

Ranmilia wrote: ↑Tue Sep 29, 2020 9:40 pm Mmmmrf.

Ok fine sure here's why why why.

MP7 claims her process is always finding town, yet hits us here with a scumcase. It is based on Hally being the wolf poised to win - an analysis I'm familiar with and make myself most of the time - but conveniently, if we accept this, it makes MP7 the wolf poised to win.

She also brings this up and votes it here on 5 players remaining. From MP7's perspective, I don't think it can possibly be correct to vote this on 5 as opposed to waiting for final 3, because it's very likely that either Ran or Hally will die tonight, the two of us being relatively active posters who did vote against Cayvie. She's still said nothing about Mist other than "meh, too easy." But she also hasn't said anything much about me. Hyena and Tony both died expressing "Ran powerwolfing?" concerns that I expected to be fighting here, but no one is engaging on anything. This makes me assume that people are freerolling Ran+Hally to see which of us dies tonight.

So why does MP7 want to vote Hally today? Smells like TMI that Mist is in fact too easy and that she's planning to kill me and sow discord between Sabie/Hally in final 3.

IS Mist too easy? I don't know, it's hard to say because Mist isn't posting much today.

Is MP7 independently scummy? Also a hard time telling because she isn't posting much. Had my doubts from yesterday though and this case does not make a ton of sense to be coming from her here, to me.

Is there possibly merit to this case and Hally isn't all that towny? I don't know, where's Hally at today?

Is this a lock case? Heck no. Discuss it.

It's a little frustrating feeling alone and then just getting why why why'd on things I post. Sorry about that.

potential counterpoint: if mp is scum, her plan this game has clearly been “try to pocket hally like nobodys business.” if shes scum here planning to take me to F3, wouldn’t she wanna keep trying to pocket me so i vote with her in f3? or maybe she thinks that pocketing me hasnt worked because i still don’t tr her so she’s just abandoning that strategy and trying to play a different long game? idk im similarly confused as to where this push on me is coming from because like, up until that post, mp was one of the few who was suspicious of mist. and she also strongly tr me. so i don’t get how im suddenly the most scummy person over mist. like, if im thinking about it from mp’s pov, idk why town!her ever votes me over mist today given all her posts up until now. but i also feel like scum!mp could easily just vote mist here too? so why does she want to overplay her hand here by pushing me now?

Ranmilia wrote: ↑Tue Sep 29, 2020 8:53 pm Was that too snippy? I may be being too snippy. I apologize. We're three days overdue for groceries and I've had no food for about 30 hours and still won't for another hour. You're all wonderful. Please post though.

wait you haven’t eaten for 30 hrs? ran omg please eat

Ranmilia wrote: ↑Tue Sep 29, 2020 5:21 pm [VOTE: MP7] aubergine

@Mistyx @sabie12 @Hally

Think this may be the correct vote.

mm maybe. i don’t like mp’s push on me but i can’t tell if just omgusing or if it’s actually bad

sabie12 wrote: ↑Tue Sep 29, 2020 7:15 am

Ranmilia wrote: ↑Tue Sep 29, 2020 6:20 am Bored. Reread Hyena's ISO. Dang. Hyena was a real one. I got thoughts, but not a lot I think would be productive or am comfortable saying until I hear a lot more from Mist, MP7, Hally... and also Sabie.

I guess I can say I'm pretty sure Hyena was the IC and TSP was the vig, not the other way around. Hyena showed no fear at any point whatsoever, and almost no self defense despite taking what I perceive to have been a fair amount of heat. They knew they were unyeetable. (Cayvie agreed.) TSP's night posts are all but yelling outright "I am the vig and I am not going to shoot tonight because if I miss and am killed it's MYLO and scum could win by claiming my shot."

I'm... not sure this changes much for anyone going forward. Maybe lessens Hyena read influence a little, but not much.

I'd hoped to get a lot more done yesterday and today tbh. Spelunky 2 will be out by the time I'm up again and I am absolutely going to disappear into it. (relatively speaking. I'll be around.) No knock on anyone. Just unfortunate.

Why does it keep giving me "the submitted form was invalid, try submitting again" on quick reply. Every single time.

Why am I ...and sabie?
I had some similar thoughts regarding hally as MP. I thought it was possible they may have planned to bus in order to get the vengeful kill.
Mist though even admitted to being somewhat disconnected to the game and after awhile (cayvie disappeared) started fizzling out of being involved.

Didn't think of the roles being reversed between tony and hyena I guess that's possible but like you said I don't know if that changes anything.

what does planning a bus to make the vengeful kill actually get me if i’m scum? it’s just a one for one trade. why is that good for scum!me? or why is it better than just... not bussing? it’s not as though cayvie loses her kill if her teammate doesn’t bus her immediately. and it’s not better for her to kill sooner, it’s worse because she’s dead and then her teammate has to survive the game without her

im not meaning to dismiss your ideas or make you feel bad, really. i just don’t understand this idea that the vengeful kill would be of such great value to mafia that i would hard bus cayvie since like a few hours into D1 just so she could use it. that's a way worse strategy than protecting cayvie and then using her kill if she happens to die anyway at some later time

M Plus 7 wrote: ↑Tue Sep 29, 2020 12:23 am Some Hally thoughts:

- I sort of feel like Hally's hunting this game is more like shading. Especially their thoughts on sabie during Night 1 seem sort of designed to make sabie look suspicious more than actually get at sabie's alignment. And Hally's asked some questions to me too and I felt like they never really were trying to assess my role card.
- Hally and cayvie interacted a ton, and some of the banter is... weird?
- Hally had cayvie and Hyena at the bottom in their D1 reads list after voting cayvie earlier for their thought not being a real thought... which is sort of strange how Hally sort of drops? it almost reads like a forced suspicion too in retrospect, switches their vote to Hyena (which cayvie was also pushing), then switches back to cayvie, and like... I don't feel like the reads organically develop over the course of the rest of D1? They just sort of park on cayvie and makes it seem like they're considering other things but I don't sense much in terms of gears-turning so to speak.

If I were cayvie's teammate and she threw out that theory early on D1 and then vanished, I actually think some distancing like Hally did and then subsequent exploring of options and then parking on teammate while keeping options open would be the easiest way to ensure a win. It gives her the option to coast until endgame and/or switch off of cayvie onto someone like Hyena if Hyena hadn't suddenly become townread by enough of the thread for that to go away.

Every other player... sabie, Mist, Ran are all evidently trying to at least figure the game out? Or at least seem turbulent and lost? Hally has tried to make it seem like that but... I feel like their posting during Night 1 was lacking any sort of town spark like that.

Hally is the player most set up to win if they're scum out of any of us, and I think that's by design.

mp, you’re misrepresenting what happened with me and cayvie. i didn’t park on her when she vanished, i voted her when she was here and then i never moved because i didn’t want to. like, the way you’re making it sound is like cayvie vanished so then i had no choice to bus her but that’s not what happened. and i was not “fishing around for other options.” you’re reading malicious intent into my actions that doesn’t exist. im not gonna stop trying to solve other people just because i was voting cayvie. like, i voted hyena briefly then decided he was town so i went back to cayvie. and i never felt anyone else was scummier than her at any point so i stayed there

i also feel i have to push back on you saying that it’s “by design” that im most set up to win as scum as though it’s ever a legitimate strategy to bus my only teammate that quickly. really, you can say this is wifom but i was the most tr, most active player d1. scum!me doesn’t have to bus from that position. i had the thread control and clout to push someone else over cayvie. like, half the thread was tr’ing her. she was not a lost cause. and you can say that bussing cayvie would help me get to endgame but like, no. everyone tr me D1. scum!me could easily have gotten to endgame whether i bused or not. and the reality is that hard bussing to the extent that i would have needed to do to be scum this game actually would put me in a worse situation than not bussing at all because even with the vengeful kill the number of mislims i’d need to win would still be two and i’d have to survive two nights in a row without people getting suspicious of me still being alive. it’s just a terrible strategy

i really don’t get where this push is coming from. you didn’t think it was likely scum would bus at all before. why do you think the opposite now? like, i’m extremely confused at how you progressed from having me as i think your strongest tr D1 to then seeing me eliminate scum D1 to now voting me D2. can you please walk me through this? what led you to this read?

M Plus 7 wrote: ↑Mon Sep 28, 2020 6:29 pm I actually think it's Hally.

[VOTE: Hally] aubergine

I'll talk more later, can't much right now. Just had gamestate thoughts percolating in the back of my mind this whole time. Hally's actions seem agenda-compatible to me at this moment.

except no

like, last i remember you thought that it was really unlikely i was scum because it wouldn’t make sense for me to bus cayvie that hard. what changed?

Mistyx wrote: ↑Mon Sep 28, 2020 11:54 am maybe it's hally lol idk

what prompted this thought?

Ranmilia wrote: ↑Mon Sep 28, 2020 7:12 am Ok, thanks.

So to answer MP7 now: my take on Sabie's defensiveness is that it is a good look. Her statements re: her stance on cayvie are true and consistent with frustration at being lumped in as "defending cayvie," which from her perspective is an inaccurate characterization that she is fighting back at being pinned with. I was aware of this at the time I initially put forth that characterization, as a hypothesis test to see how Sabie would respond to it.

I think she responded in a consistent and towny fashion. Currently I believe Sabie the most out of the three non-cayvie-voters, making her the one that I do NOT wish to yeet. There is some chance that she is playing this off to deflect and hedge, but it is exactly what I would expect from town in her spot.

(Additionally I do not buy the argument brought against Sabie by Mist yesterday, regarding confusion over IC claims being "the most suspicious thing in the thread." I find that also believable for town and not very scummy if at all. That argument being weak is another part of why my current suspicious lie on Mist and MP7.)

So there's a hot take for y'all. Bedtime for me now.

this reminds me that i don’t think mist ever answered what she meant about sabie and the ic thing being the most sus thing itt. i still don’t get what she meant by that. [mention]Mistyx[/mention]?

also i think i agree atm that sabie feels the most genuine out of sabie/mist/mp for reasons i just explained. also i think she actually did derp herself clear by thinking cayvie had to kill the last person who voted her

sabie12 wrote: ↑Mon Sep 28, 2020 6:57 am

Ranmilia wrote: ↑Sun Sep 27, 2020 11:54 pm I guess it's gone long enough that I should say something to @sabie12.

You are not posting into a void, I see your posts and your stances are duly noted. Currently I have characterized you as "townread Cayvie." You are correct in pointing out that you did not strictly speaking do that. You did, however, post:

sabie12 wrote: ↑Sat Sep 26, 2020 7:31 am I am always a low poster in the beginning of games I am slow to start as I get a feel for things sorry that's just me. Also as I've said this week didnt go as planned for me but oh well.

I feel like this game is better for the scum team because they can kill us all easily and we won't even know for sure they're doing it.
Now that I can read ISOs I could maybe vote hally as they seem to have been perpetuating the random pokemon discussion and just seem different than the town game I saw before. Now that I read cayvie I feel her thought about hyena and hally may have been genuine but then she disappeared after Wednesday. I think tony is his usual town self. I could see maybe a vote for mist I don't feel like they're towny though I guess others do. I think MP seems like her town game before. I'm just not sure.

For now I will [VOTE: hally] aubergine I'm sure I'll get grilled about that but that's what I feel right now. In the other town game Hally was so unsure and thought everyone was town and didn't want to vote people and this game seems different to me.

Bolded and underlined the key phrase. This, as I understand it, is the exact reason that MP7 and Mist gave for why they townread Cayvie. So, posting that specific stance + not voting cayvie is why I currently have you lumped in that group. You may not have said "I townread Cayvie" but if you prefer we can adjust the language to "people who believed cayvie's thoughts were genuine and did not vote her." Does that make sense?

Yes and the rest of the sentence was but she hasn't posted since Wednesday which is my own weird way of being like hmmm what's up with that? I had been reconsidering and I was changing my mind. I can re explain that I (I guess wrongly) after that thought people were reconsidering cayvie and I let it influence my opinion when maybe I shouldn't have. I was going to change to cayvie then I think maybe it was MP said oh cayvie is probably just town and then the conversation started moving away from it. There was no poll and I didn't even realize people were still voting there. I just tried to have further discussion about it and I was asking if people had any familiarity with her or her playstyle or whatever. If that was responded to then I missed it and I'm sorry.
I did not defend cayvie I just wanted to generate discussion and look at other options.

I do realize I word things weirdly and people always misunderstand me. I also realize the remaining mafia has to build a world where someone else is and I am an easy target because no one here gets me. I guess I can't blame them for that since they also want to win this game.

i kinda wanna tr this. like specifically sabie feeling down about ppl not getting her. iirc she had another post i think to me where she seemed upset that i seemed to be dismissing the thing about cayvies bussing theory i think it was? like i think town are more likely to have their feelings hurt over ppl not vibing with their ideas because they’re actually like trying to solve and care about it whereas scum dont. idk if im explaining this well. but ig the reason it seems townish is because i don’t feel like this emotion is targeted as AtE to like make ppl tr her. its more like her just being upset with herself almost as opposed to like trying to actively guilt us into tr’ing her

M Plus 7 wrote: ↑Sun Sep 27, 2020 9:38 pm I guess my instinct still says it's either Mist or sabie, but like... sabie has had moments where imo it seemed like she was the last one but she also has had posts where I feel like they were really genuine, so I'm torn, and then Mist feels too easy somehow?

what do you mean, mist feels too easy? or like, what does that have to do with her alignment?

M Plus 7 wrote: ↑Sun Sep 27, 2020 9:24 pm

Hally wrote: ↑Sun Sep 27, 2020 8:31 pm i assume tony was just ic then

mp being vig would be great. it also kinda explains why she’s felt a bit off to me. being pr can make ppl act differently

What do you mean by me being off?

idk, it just seems like you’ve struggled to integrate yourself fully into the game. and one of the reasons for that could have been that you were stressed about having a pr or were playing differently because of that. but obviously not

hi im finally here. catching up now!

hi sorry ill try to give this game more of my attention tomorrow night and wednesday

wait seriously? hyena was vig? that’s so fucking rip

i assume tony was just ic then

mp being vig would be great. it also kinda explains why she’s felt a bit off to me. being pr can make ppl act differently

oh im vt

so mp is vig?

rip tony. not surprised though

Ranmilia wrote: ↑Sat Sep 26, 2020 11:42 pm Good night MP7, good night Hally if applicable.

##Nightvote: Mist

why mist?

sabie12 wrote: ↑Sat Sep 26, 2020 11:58 pm I shall sleep and try again tomorrow. Just feeling frustrated. I'll get over it and keep trying.

sabie12 wrote: ↑Sat Sep 26, 2020 11:47 pm I mean cayvie has a whole interaction about bussing and being a vengeful mafia and then ended up being the vengeful mafia so I pointed that out. I thought maybe that was something worth discussing if we're analyzing cayvies ISO. If no one thinks looking at other players interactions with a mafia member is worthwhile then fine I give up go ahead and misyeet me. If someone else had come up with that idea it would be awesome smart amazing cool. If I say it, it's heavily questionable and makes no sense and why would I ever even think that was meaningful?

oh no i didn’t mean it’s not worthwhile. i’m just trying to understand what you see in it. you didn’t say what you think the posts meant when you quoted them. so i just want to know what you get from them. sorry i’m not trying to frustrate you

im probably gonna look through the whole game again for cayvie stuff. not tonight though. i wanna sleep soon

sabie12 wrote: ↑Sat Sep 26, 2020 11:37 pm

Hally wrote: ↑Sat Sep 26, 2020 11:21 pm im like kinda pinged by sabie pulling up those quotes about cayvie’s vengeful bussing theory and just dropping them in the thread because i feel like if sabie is the last mafia she would absolutely want to plant paranoia about a bus. like i don’t get why conf scum’s words should hold bearing on whether or not scum bussed. it’s just wifom at best

I looked through cayvies ISO and those quotes stood out to me. If anything can be gleaned from her ISO I thought maybe those quotes were significant. Alas as always my thoughts and ideas don't make sense to anyone else but me. I thought it was mist but then those interactions seem weird as teammates.

but why are they significant? what do they mean to you? and what interactions re: mist?

good night!

M Plus 7 wrote: ↑Sat Sep 26, 2020 11:27 pm

Hally wrote: ↑Sat Sep 26, 2020 11:25 pm

M Plus 7 wrote: ↑Sat Sep 26, 2020 11:25 pm

Hally wrote: ↑Sat Sep 26, 2020 11:24 pm

M Plus 7 wrote: ↑Sat Sep 26, 2020 11:18 pm

Hally wrote: ↑Sat Sep 26, 2020 11:17 pm

M Plus 7 wrote: ↑Sat Sep 26, 2020 11:08 pm Hey I guess in retrospect if sabie/cayvie is the team I was onto something sort of? Hehe.

what i was getting at is that maybe you had tmi cayvie was scum and so sabie’s treatment of cayvie was something that stood out to you as an angle you could push if/when cayvie flipped. but idk it doesn’t have to be that

Wait, what do you mean exactly?

like if you’re scum you knew cayvie was scum, so you saw sabie hedging on cayvie and called it out because you knew that if cayvie flipped you could push sabie and you wanted to set it up. but again it doesn’t have to be that. like your explanation for it makes sense

Oh, I see, like I was looking for angles to push people. That makes sense.

is that what you were doing?

Hehe! No.

welp. worth a shot

im gonna let the ppl who are good at mech stuff decide whether claiming tonight is good

M Plus 7 wrote: ↑Sat Sep 26, 2020 11:25 pm

Hally wrote: ↑Sat Sep 26, 2020 11:24 pm

M Plus 7 wrote: ↑Sat Sep 26, 2020 11:18 pm

Hally wrote: ↑Sat Sep 26, 2020 11:17 pm

M Plus 7 wrote: ↑Sat Sep 26, 2020 11:08 pm Hey I guess in retrospect if sabie/cayvie is the team I was onto something sort of? Hehe.

what i was getting at is that maybe you had tmi cayvie was scum and so sabie’s treatment of cayvie was something that stood out to you as an angle you could push if/when cayvie flipped. but idk it doesn’t have to be that

Wait, what do you mean exactly?

like if you’re scum you knew cayvie was scum, so you saw sabie hedging on cayvie and called it out because you knew that if cayvie flipped you could push sabie and you wanted to set it up. but again it doesn’t have to be that. like your explanation for it makes sense

Oh, I see, like I was looking for angles to push people. That makes sense.

is that what you were doing?

M Plus 7 wrote: ↑Sat Sep 26, 2020 11:18 pm

Hally wrote: ↑Sat Sep 26, 2020 11:17 pm

M Plus 7 wrote: ↑Sat Sep 26, 2020 11:08 pm Hey I guess in retrospect if sabie/cayvie is the team I was onto something sort of? Hehe.

what i was getting at is that maybe you had tmi cayvie was scum and so sabie’s treatment of cayvie was something that stood out to you as an angle you could push if/when cayvie flipped. but idk it doesn’t have to be that

Wait, what do you mean exactly?

like if you’re scum you knew cayvie was scum, so you saw sabie hedging on cayvie and called it out because you knew that if cayvie flipped you could push sabie and you wanted to set it up. but again it doesn’t have to be that. like your explanation for it makes sense

im like kinda pinged by sabie pulling up those quotes about cayvie’s vengeful bussing theory and just dropping them in the thread because i feel like if sabie is the last mafia she would absolutely want to plant paranoia about a bus. like i don’t get why conf scum’s words should hold bearing on whether or not scum bussed. it’s just wifom at best

Ranmilia wrote: ↑Sat Sep 26, 2020 11:10 pm If IC is within mp7/sabie/mist they should claim ASAP to avoid the risk of getting vigged.
If vig wants to shoot tonight, I'd prefer they call their shot. But if they do call a shot they have to take it, no fake shots from anyone please.

Unfortunately I think there's a fairly significant chance Hyena was a PR.

hyena claimed vt

M Plus 7 wrote: ↑Sat Sep 26, 2020 11:08 pm Hey I guess in retrospect if sabie/cayvie is the team I was onto something sort of? Hehe.

what i was getting at is that maybe you had tmi cayvie was scum and so sabie’s treatment of cayvie was something that stood out to you as an angle you could push if/when cayvie flipped. but idk it doesn’t have to be that

M Plus 7 wrote: ↑Sat Sep 26, 2020 11:08 pm

Hally wrote: ↑Sat Sep 26, 2020 11:06 pm

M Plus 7 wrote: ↑Sat Sep 26, 2020 10:49 pm

Hally wrote: ↑Sat Sep 26, 2020 10:03 pm

M Plus 7 wrote: ↑Sat Sep 26, 2020 5:26 pm I feel like sabie's hedging on cayvie seems a bit opportunistic.

what did you mean by this mp? isn’t hedging the opposite of being opportunistic?

Hmmm yeah I guess the wording was poor. It just felt like sabie was trying to have it both ways and it read awkwardly to me.

why did you find that scummy if you read cayvie town? like wouldn’t sabie not really wanting to kill cayvie be a good thing if fypov cayvie was town? idk if this makes sense

Oh huh, I see what you mean. I just thought it meant sabie was acting with TMI, I didn't really think of it from whether cayvie was town or scum specifically because either way it felt like sabie was dancing around cayvie and she knew cayvie's alignment, you know?

hm. ok that makes sense ig

M Plus 7 wrote: ↑Sat Sep 26, 2020 11:04 pm

Hally wrote: ↑Sat Sep 26, 2020 11:04 pm

M Plus 7 wrote: ↑Sat Sep 26, 2020 10:47 pm

Hally wrote: ↑Sat Sep 26, 2020 9:54 pm if i buy mp’s reaction as pure and buy sabie’s derp as real, it’s just mist. but i tr mist so that feels wrong. but i don’t think ran would bus there. so i’m going wrong somewhere

What's the most likely scenario to you if Mist is town?

that either you or sabie is scum

Well, okay, that makes sense, lmao, I just was wondering if you had a clear pecking order.

not atm. gotta see where my inquiries lead

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Sat Sep 26, 2020 11:03 pm wait is mafia at parity?

i assume so?

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Sat Sep 26, 2020 11:00 pm MP and Hally have a bajillion posts

and water is wet

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Sat Sep 26, 2020 10:57 pm

M Plus 7 wrote: ↑Sat Sep 26, 2020 10:52 pm

Mistyx wrote: ↑Sat Sep 26, 2020 10:46 pm optimal mech play i think is IC reveal and vig claim TOMORROW then we pick one player to punt and the other to vig

scum can’t risk a vig claim then because no shot outs them

Wait, I don't quite understand the second part I think. Why is it better for N2 vig shot than N1?

if someone hypothetically claims vig day 2 and it turns out it was hyena or whatever and there's no cc then if there's no shot they're a confirmed wolf

ftr hyena claimed vt D1 so we’re golden on that front unless he was bluffing

Mistyx wrote: ↑Sat Sep 26, 2020 10:55 pm

M Plus 7 wrote: ↑Sat Sep 26, 2020 10:52 pm

Mistyx wrote: ↑Sat Sep 26, 2020 10:46 pm optimal mech play i think is IC reveal and vig claim TOMORROW then we pick one player to punt and the other to vig

scum can’t risk a vig claim then because no shot outs them

Wait, I don't quite understand the second part I think. Why is it better for N2 vig shot than N1?

because an N1 shot can allow a D2 claim from scum

if there’s no n1 shot and two D2 claims we just win
if there’s an n1 shot and two D2 claims we have to pick between them
and if there’s no n1 shot and one D2 claim we have a chance to prove it
if there’s an n1 shot and one D2 claim we can’t confirm anything

im too tired to comprehend this

M Plus 7 wrote: ↑Sat Sep 26, 2020 10:51 pm

M Plus 7 wrote: ↑Sat Sep 26, 2020 10:50 pm I think we just force the scum to shoot Hally though.

By this I mean... if she's town, let her get NKed. I don't want to tinfoil that yet. If she's alive at a critical stage and it becomes relevant, consider it thoroughly. I guess this is a small game though so maybe I'm thinking about this backwards.

yes, please nk me @scum. i promise you won’t regret it

M Plus 7 wrote: ↑Sat Sep 26, 2020 10:49 pm

Hally wrote: ↑Sat Sep 26, 2020 10:03 pm

M Plus 7 wrote: ↑Sat Sep 26, 2020 5:26 pm I feel like sabie's hedging on cayvie seems a bit opportunistic.

what did you mean by this mp? isn’t hedging the opposite of being opportunistic?

Hmmm yeah I guess the wording was poor. It just felt like sabie was trying to have it both ways and it read awkwardly to me.

why did you find that scummy if you read cayvie town? like wouldn’t sabie not really wanting to kill cayvie be a good thing if fypov cayvie was town? idk if this makes sense

M Plus 7 wrote: ↑Sat Sep 26, 2020 10:47 pm

Hally wrote: ↑Sat Sep 26, 2020 9:54 pm if i buy mp’s reaction as pure and buy sabie’s derp as real, it’s just mist. but i tr mist so that feels wrong. but i don’t think ran would bus there. so i’m going wrong somewhere

What's the most likely scenario to you if Mist is town?

that either you or sabie is scum

Mistyx wrote: ↑Sat Sep 26, 2020 10:46 pm optimal mech play i think is IC reveal and vig claim TOMORROW then we pick one player to punt and the other to vig

scum can’t risk a vig claim then because no shot outs them

why shouldn’t the vig shoot tonight?

M Plus 7 wrote: ↑Sat Sep 26, 2020 10:44 pm

Hally wrote: ↑Sat Sep 26, 2020 9:10 pm i think vig should shoot with mp/sabie/mist. and if they feel they’re at risk to be shot tonight (ie on cayvie) i think they should claim too so that scum can’t nk them tonight and then claim vig later on. i’m worried in a flipless setup about scum fake claiming and getting wrongly cleared off that. but idk if this mechanically correct

Wait, you think all three of us should claim then, are you sure?

no you three shouldn’t since if you’re town scum won’t kill you because you’re in the poe. if the vig is in you three it’s better to stay hidden until at least tomorrow. i was more worried about if ran or tony is vig because scum could kill them tonight and then we wouldn’t know. but tbh this is kinda dumb because i forgot tony claimed ic already. so he’s probably just always the kill here

sabie why did you quote those posts? do you think they mean that a bus was more or less likely?