The Syndicate

Hally wrote: ↑Tue Mar 01, 2022 5:44 pm there’s things wolves do not ever fake and c4 thinking dizzy was softing a red check on me at SoD and soft communicating about it itt is one of those things

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Tue Mar 01, 2022 5:41 pm I voted c4 because the gamestate just flipped on its head, and given ten seconds to think it felt like the right direction

NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Tue Mar 01, 2022 5:22 pm I see the claim and im not CCing rn

DrWilgy wrote: ↑Tue Mar 01, 2022 5:22 pm Man, I still think it's C4.

Master Radishes wrote: ↑Tue Mar 01, 2022 3:50 pm I will poke my head in again before EoD but won't be super active. But we're not chopping me today.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Tue Mar 01, 2022 2:54 pm

Hally wrote: ↑Tue Mar 01, 2022 2:53 pm that may be the villageriest thing anyone has done this game

I’m not sure what you’re referring to

Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Sun Feb 27, 2022 6:23 pm I was watching the Alison thing on phone, pretty much knew it was wrong, but didn’t do anything about it. And when she claimed mafia, I thought it was pretty obvious she was lying.

c4e5g3d5 wrote: ↑Tue Mar 01, 2022 2:46 pm

Hally wrote: ↑Tue Mar 01, 2022 2:45 pm

c4e5g3d5 wrote: ↑Tue Mar 01, 2022 2:42 pm

Hally wrote: ↑Tue Mar 01, 2022 2:23 pm

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Tue Mar 01, 2022 4:47 am

MacDougall wrote: ↑Tue Mar 01, 2022 4:28 am irt to the latter I would add that they in fact were not viewed as such by anyone else aside from specifically c4 who I am now tunneling as dizzy's partner for separate reasons

Let me know if you disagree with c4/Dizzy analysis. In the interest of immediate solving I am just going to say: I think c4 had a PR read on Dizzy at least for a moment, and that's what caused c4's faux-1610 "slip" post. If true, they're not both mafia. I made a few other points in there too.

@c4e5g3d5 confirm?

Close enough
Thought it was probably fake but wasn't sure either way and wanted to just resolve it
Especially since he was softing something that would've 180'd all my reads

wait

did you think he was softing a red on me?

Yeah, a watch

c4e5g3d5 wrote: ↑Tue Mar 01, 2022 2:42 pm

Hally wrote: ↑Tue Mar 01, 2022 2:23 pm

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Tue Mar 01, 2022 4:47 am

MacDougall wrote: ↑Tue Mar 01, 2022 4:28 am irt to the latter I would add that they in fact were not viewed as such by anyone else aside from specifically c4 who I am now tunneling as dizzy's partner for separate reasons

Let me know if you disagree with c4/Dizzy analysis. In the interest of immediate solving I am just going to say: I think c4 had a PR read on Dizzy at least for a moment, and that's what caused c4's faux-1610 "slip" post. If true, they're not both mafia. I made a few other points in there too.

@c4e5g3d5 confirm?

Close enough
Thought it was probably fake but wasn't sure either way and wanted to just resolve it
Especially since he was softing something that would've 180'd all my reads

NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Tue Mar 01, 2022 2:40 pm

Hally wrote: ↑Tue Mar 01, 2022 2:38 pm what does that post even mean lol

It means I'm 99% sure that C4, Dizzy, MR contain 1 or fewer mafia.

Master Radishes wrote: ↑Tue Mar 01, 2022 2:33 pm

Hally wrote: ↑Tue Mar 01, 2022 2:27 pm okay but what if it’s like NAA/wilgy and we’re just imploding for no reason as both wolves do nothing? because that’s not even unlikely

nobody has been able to explain why wilgy is a villager still and i find the reasons why NAA is a villager unconvincing

NAA is doing town!him things on the surface, like throwing out a single read at a time and sticking to it, keeping a low volume, etc.

He played recently on CDC and had, like, two whole reads the entire game, and one was correct. So far in this game he's basically said 'Alison V, MR W' and he's batting .500 on that one too. (I guess lately he's daring to state opinions on others as well, but more as throw-outs rather than central aspects of his worldview.)

So like...yeah, he's in his town meta. But honestly that's not really enough to meta-read someone imo. I don't see anything he's posted that can't come from scum!him, knowing if he keeps a low profile we'll let him go for awhile.

My issue is that if it's just not him, and I can't say with much certainty it is, then I'm living in a hard world of Jay/C4/Dizzy/Nook and some of those combos don't make sense and it's gonna be a lot of effort to get it right if we're in LYLO or close to it.

Master Radishes wrote: ↑Tue Mar 01, 2022 2:28 pm I'm struggling with Jay lately. Everything seems clean on the surface. But if anyone is keeping my head under the surface D2 it's him, even as he protests it is not him. His initial reasons for SRing me were pretty basic. He's putting in tons of effort lately, but also, like...is it all that much? Quoting a bunch of posts then writing a paragraph summary of them? It's not busywork per se, but I don't think I'd effort-clear him for it, not for someone like Jay who eats isos for breakfast.


But I think I should re-read something (anything) before I start spitballing too much. People are allowed to misread me, and it makes sense in D2 in this gamestate to have me in their sights.

NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Tue Mar 01, 2022 2:27 pm @JaggedJimmyJay I'm going to vaguely explain why Mac is mafia without giving away the read entirely.

Let's assume that Mac is mafia, then we can assume that there is a certain agenda to his posts. I'm not going to guess too much as to how this would work.

Now, let's assume that Mac is town... Well then we can assume that he is playing without an agenda, which should roughly demonstrate a random distribution as to the alignment of people he's communicating with.

The random distribution would not necessarily be the game!rand distribution, but leaning towards mac!reads rand distribution. I'm going to assume (I've tested this with a couple games) that Mac's gut / instinctive replies are above the game rand, and he replies to mafia about 30% of the time as town.

Now, if we take this on some of his runs of posting, we can determine that there is about mechanically a 1% chance that Mac, Hally, JJJ, NAA, Nanook, DrWilgy are all town.

I know my alignment, and I have Hally, JJJ as lock town.

I think DrWilgy is firmly within town meta... If you disagree here, this is where I can be wrong.

Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Tue Mar 01, 2022 1:20 pm I started to read D1 from scratch, but it got super boring quickly. However, probably the only real thought I has was that Nanook had a pretty towny opening there. And later now he points out the same thing. His frustration and self vote stuff is maybe a bit icky, I don't know. It's a tempting thing to do ig. Ruminating a bit on it, I think Nanook might be town. I feel like I'm just guessing, same as everyone else. Which is demotivating.

I'm probably just going to keep town reading Hally/Jay/c4.
Mac is somehow in his own category, but I would just guess he's town because vibes. However, I never became clear about if he scum read Hally or town read Hally when he had his fight with Jay. Cause it was like "Jay and Hally are the mafia" and then he answered to me that Hally was derp cleared town. And I didn't get any of it. A not to whoever cares.
Hally I town read for my own reasons.
c4 I town read much for the reasons Hally stated here.
I have no energy to do anything other than town read Jay, and it's very likely correct.

If I take out Nanook, NAA/Wilgy/MR is probably my pool.
I haven't really considered my teammate MR a lot. If you all say he's mafia, cool. I hope it's right for the game state.
Wilgy and NAA exist.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Tue Mar 01, 2022 11:35 am MR and NAA

From MR

Spoiler: show

Master Radishes wrote: ↑Fri Feb 25, 2022 1:56 am Catching up was fun until you all stopped talking about me. I'm going to stop and just assume Mac and NAA are voting me for no reason because it's them. I can see Alison's quoted on this page.

Master Radishes wrote: ↑Fri Feb 25, 2022 2:02 pm

Hally wrote: ↑Fri Feb 25, 2022 2:00 pm nobody has any thoughts on this?

Hally wrote: ↑Fri Feb 25, 2022 1:02 pm

c4e5g3d5 wrote: ↑Fri Feb 25, 2022 12:46 pm Can I get a tldr on Axe that doesn't revolve around "not towny"

- treatment of alison is wolfy - opens saying he wants to sheep her while not yet having a read on her then v reads her for a weak reason that doesn’t really apply to her and makes no effort engage with/understand the suspicion surrounding her i.e. what villagers do when someone they v read is getting wolf read a ton. just don’t see any critical thought or drive to figure things out in his treatment of her and it reads more like he’s just trying to ingratiate himself to her.

- treatment of his nonconsensus suspects is wolfy - keeps throwing you out as a wolf read but does nothing about it. again, not what villagers do when someone they wolf read is getting widely v read. i think at one point he even threw out you/jay/dizzy as his suspects and you’re all being cleared pretty much, meaning from his pov town’s consensus is way off, yet i don’t see any of the concern in his posts that villagers have when they think everything is upside down.

- i find his treatment of me wolfy too but obviously biased there. just don’t feel like he’s been trying to solve me in a good faith way.

Hally wrote: ↑Fri Feb 25, 2022 1:06 pm also he and nanook know each other well afaik + nanook has been getting a lot of heat, but NAA has largely ignored him i think

i dunno, just not feeling the villager in the way he’s approaching anything but i’ve never played with him so maybe i’m backwards here

Never seen scum NAA either so dunno, but I did read it over earlier and didn't have anything to counter it, just so you know your hard work didn't go to waste.

Master Radishes wrote: ↑Fri Feb 25, 2022 2:04 pm I found it easy to misread Axey first time I played with him though. So like your second point of not seeing concern in his posts does feel normal for him imo.

Master Radishes wrote: ↑Sat Feb 26, 2022 2:17 pm Here is my advice on what to do. First, eliminate Alison so that I won't die today.

If Alison flips scum, then eliminate Mac. If Mac is town, then eliminate Dizzy and Wilgy, in that order.

If Alison flips town, then eliminate me. I will flip town, whereupon which you should eliminate NAA and Wilgy.

I have about a 60% confidence that this solve wins the game. This may not seem like a lot of confidence, but it's actually quite a lot if you think about what I am proposing.

Master Radishes wrote: ↑Sat Feb 26, 2022 2:12 pm [VOTE: NAA] aubergine

Omgus

Master Radishes wrote: ↑Sat Feb 26, 2022 2:14 pm My wagon has the two most stale votes.

Like I guess Axe moved his briefly to put Alison at 5 or whatever happened, but seeing as he then went back to me that barely counts.

Master Radishes wrote: ↑Sat Feb 26, 2022 2:23 pm Imagine it's Alison/NAA and both wolves have sat on my wagon for the bulk of the Day.

The fun thing about always being LHF is being bait.

Master Radishes wrote: ↑Sat Feb 26, 2022 3:43 pm What if the crowd of Jay, Hally, Dizzy, C4, Marmot, and I all rank Alison, NAA, Mac in preferred order and then find the average score to decide who dies.

(In this plan Wilgy and NAA are NPCs.)

Master Radishes wrote: ↑Sat Feb 26, 2022 3:44 pm

Master Radishes wrote: ↑Sat Feb 26, 2022 3:43 pm What if the crowd of Jay, Hally, Dizzy, C4, Marmot, and I all rank Alison, NAA, Mac in preferred order and then find the average score to decide who dies.

(In this plan Wilgy and NAA are NPCs.)

*Nook, not NAA, for that last sentence.

Master Radishes wrote: ↑Sat Feb 26, 2022 3:52 pm Alison > NAA > Mac > Nook

Not sure I'm ready for a Wilgy yeet at this stage.

Master Radishes wrote: ↑Mon Feb 28, 2022 2:15 pm So I can have some light reading on my bus ride home, why was NAA's EoD villagery?

I dont even know what to feel about him, I just don't really get why he's now a town read.

Master Radishes wrote: ↑Mon Feb 28, 2022 2:33 pm [VOTE: NAA] aubergine

Okay.

Master Radishes wrote: ↑Mon Feb 28, 2022 3:47 pm Why am I and Dizzy in a dichotomy? That was an Alison thing and now it's an NAA thing and I don't know why.

Master Radishes wrote: ↑Mon Feb 28, 2022 4:12 pm

NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Mon Feb 28, 2022 3:50 pm

Master Radishes wrote: ↑Mon Feb 28, 2022 3:47 pm Why am I and Dizzy in a dichotomy? That was an Alison thing and now it's an NAA thing and I don't know why.

You're both scummy, and I trust Alison sufficiently to carry her legacy out. This is why I sheeped her from the moment I thought she was town.

But why is there a difference check?

Master Radishes wrote: ↑Mon Feb 28, 2022 5:04 pm

NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Mon Feb 28, 2022 4:45 pm

Master Radishes wrote: ↑Mon Feb 28, 2022 4:12 pm

NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Mon Feb 28, 2022 3:50 pm

Master Radishes wrote: ↑Mon Feb 28, 2022 3:47 pm Why am I and Dizzy in a dichotomy? That was an Alison thing and now it's an NAA thing and I don't know why.

You're both scummy, and I trust Alison sufficiently to carry her legacy out. This is why I sheeped her from the moment I thought she was town.

But why is there a difference check?

Because likely only one of you can be mafia... And at least one of you MUST be mafia.

But


and hear me out here


why?

Master Radishes wrote: ↑Mon Feb 28, 2022 5:04 pm

NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Mon Feb 28, 2022 4:45 pm

Master Radishes wrote: ↑Mon Feb 28, 2022 4:14 pm And what's your reasoning for me being scummy?

You should have argued with the ghost before she became a ghost.

Alison had a case. A poor one, but a case.

What's yours?

Master Radishes wrote: ↑Mon Feb 28, 2022 5:27 pm Like I mostly am trying to get a read on NAA in return by understanding him. I don't intend to defend myself point by point or anything.

But like... Jay. Wtf.

From NAA

Spoiler: show

NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Sat Feb 26, 2022 11:59 am So, MasterRadishes is mafia right, when are yall moving onto this wagon?

NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Sat Feb 26, 2022 12:42 pm

Marmot wrote: ↑Sat Feb 26, 2022 12:32 pm Can you talk more about why MR is scum?

Baaaaaaaaaaah

NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Sat Feb 26, 2022 12:53 pm

Marmot wrote: ↑Sat Feb 26, 2022 12:48 pm

NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Sat Feb 26, 2022 12:45 pm

Marmot wrote: ↑Sat Feb 26, 2022 12:44 pm [VOTE: NAA] aubergine

Don't be foolish, we can sheep Alison together.

It won't work. My vote for alison isn't sheeping.

Oh, I meant sheep Alison on her MR read.

NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Sat Feb 26, 2022 5:06 pm I would also kill MR. MR or dizzy best chances of hitting mafia

NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Sat Feb 26, 2022 5:13 pm

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Sat Feb 26, 2022 5:11 pm

NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Sat Feb 26, 2022 5:06 pm I would also kill MR. MR or dizzy best chances of hitting mafia

I know you're not the explaining type, but it would be valuable to me if you could just expand this by like one more sentence.

MR see Alison

Dizzy see voting history - idgi, it seems like the objective was to always vote Alison and to appear to be doing other things throughout the day.

That is all

NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Mon Feb 28, 2022 3:42 pm Kill MR if Mafia - > Nanook

NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Mon Feb 28, 2022 3:42 pm Kill MR if Town -> Dizzy if Mafia -> Mac

NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Mon Feb 28, 2022 3:50 pm

Master Radishes wrote: ↑Mon Feb 28, 2022 3:47 pm Why am I and Dizzy in a dichotomy? That was an Alison thing and now it's an NAA thing and I don't know why.

You're both scummy, and I trust Alison sufficiently to carry her legacy out. This is why I sheeped her from the moment I thought she was town.

NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Mon Feb 28, 2022 4:45 pm

Master Radishes wrote: ↑Mon Feb 28, 2022 4:12 pm

NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Mon Feb 28, 2022 3:50 pm

Master Radishes wrote: ↑Mon Feb 28, 2022 3:47 pm Why am I and Dizzy in a dichotomy? That was an Alison thing and now it's an NAA thing and I don't know why.

You're both scummy, and I trust Alison sufficiently to carry her legacy out. This is why I sheeped her from the moment I thought she was town.

But why is there a difference check?

Because likely only one of you can be mafia... And at least one of you MUST be mafia.

NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Mon Feb 28, 2022 4:45 pm

Master Radishes wrote: ↑Mon Feb 28, 2022 4:14 pm And what's your reasoning for me being scummy?

You should have argued with the ghost before she became a ghost.

Conclusion

I think this interaction looks pretty clear from both sides with respect to mafia-mafia indicators. Either way the agenda I see [if I assume either to be mafia in isolation] suggests mafia/town. If MR is mafia, then he views NAA as a necessary mischop and is trying to generate that reality with subtle or not-subtle suggestions that NAA is not meeting a standard of explanation and/or trying to capitalize on low-hanging fruit (MR himself). If NAA is mafia, then he is minimizing his own ability to gain credit from chopping MR if MR is also mafia -- he is attributing his suspicion largely or entirely to Alison's legacy, meaning the credit would go to Alison. I don't figure these two are mafia teammates.

MacDougall wrote: ↑Tue Mar 01, 2022 4:58 am @Hally I am townreading Jay because I am in fact town and he decided to be obvious about his alignment today to a ridiculous degree.

Refrain from tinfoil for the love of all that is holy.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Tue Mar 01, 2022 4:47 am

MacDougall wrote: ↑Tue Mar 01, 2022 4:28 am irt to the latter I would add that they in fact were not viewed as such by anyone else aside from specifically c4 who I am now tunneling as dizzy's partner for separate reasons

Let me know if you disagree with c4/Dizzy analysis. In the interest of immediate solving I am just going to say: I think c4 had a PR read on Dizzy at least for a moment, and that's what caused c4's faux-1610 "slip" post. If true, they're not both mafia. I made a few other points in there too.

Hally wrote: ↑Tue Mar 01, 2022 2:18 pm

MacDougall wrote: ↑Tue Mar 01, 2022 4:13 am Hally is townreading Dyslexicon because Dyslexicon is pushing her and "that is what Dyslexicon would do if they were town", but like actually let's be real. Hally is actually bleedingly obvious town and town Dyslexicon would have that read and not be pushing her lol. Hally is just levelling herself out of the easier read.

Also noting Dyslexicon isn't even voting her, so Hally is reading Dizzy town for pushing her even though Dizzy isn't even pushing her really.

it wasn’t for pushing me per se, it was more like i thought the way he was even entertaining i could be a wolf was villagery

like, i don’t know if a wolf could actually bring themselves to look at my posting this game through the lens of TMI and be like “yeah i could say hally is wolfy”

i did misread w!dizzy once for seeming “paranoid” of me but iirc that game he really just did it early D1 and then stopped once i posted myself clear whereas this game he did it SoD2 after i had already posted myself clear (at least imo)

MacDougall wrote: ↑Tue Mar 01, 2022 4:13 am Hally is townreading Dyslexicon because Dyslexicon is pushing her and "that is what Dyslexicon would do if they were town", but like actually let's be real. Hally is actually bleedingly obvious town and town Dyslexicon would have that read and not be pushing her lol. Hally is just levelling herself out of the easier read.

Also noting Dyslexicon isn't even voting her, so Hally is reading Dizzy town for pushing her even though Dizzy isn't even pushing her really.

MacDougall wrote: ↑Tue Mar 01, 2022 4:08 am

Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Sat Feb 26, 2022 2:46 pm

Hally wrote: ↑Sat Feb 26, 2022 2:40 pm

Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Sat Feb 26, 2022 2:32 pm

MacDougall wrote: ↑Sat Feb 26, 2022 8:10 amno burn intended I am just trying to make you recognise the hypocrisy of claiming my play "leads nowhere" when your current play is to yolo a vote onto a town Mac

You're a possible chop. C4 is not. So it leads somewhere. Potentially. Your alignment is irrelevant.

If you want to understand my perspective. But if you want to moan, feel free.

this reminds me, i actually think mac’s moaning is king wolfy for him

when he’s v i feel like he gets motivated by pressure and is all “i’m gonna bitchslap the wokves now,” but his response here has felt kinda weaksauce so far

That's what I've been saying. He's moany, arguing points that doesn't matter and not really solving the game afaic.

But I almost feel like he's town playing his wolf meta, though I don't know why I feel this way.

now that I am confirmation biasing myself into this world I'd like to point out that this post is a scum claim

MacDougall wrote: ↑Tue Mar 01, 2022 4:04 am

Hally wrote: ↑Tue Mar 01, 2022 3:04 am i really must be tired because i’m tinfoiling a jay/mac world lol. i actually think it fits with their interactions well, specifically

- jay was kinda oddly defensive of mac D1 imo when i don’t think mac’s play really warranted it

- they had that big fight SoD2 that i can see as wolf theater. on jay’s side, it’s already been noted that he seemed uncharacteristically combative towards mac, and i think mac would absolutely go for that kind of theater here. it seems very much in his wheelhouse to have a big fight to look unaligned.

- since that fight nothing has really happened between them? mac has continued to take pot shots at jay here and there but not really pursued his suspicions while jay has gone back to town reading him, and mac is now town reading jay back

- i also think this team would kinda explain why the game has felt so frustrating

it’s entirely possible i’ll think this is dumb when i wake up and i doubt i’ll ever be able to pull the trigger on it but i’m throwing it out there for the #postgamecred

if you want an example of jay/mac randing wolf in the last year I can give it to you...

spoiler alert

day 1 - jay was eliminated he was mafia
day 2 - mac was eliminated he was mafia

lol