The Syndicate

No. No claims ever.
If you tell the truth then the mafia can kill the people who haven't saved yet.
If you lie you're liable to be miseliminated for it and it doesn't help town anyway.

Alright so what we're doing is rolling 1d100, and if you get AT LEAST this high a number, you save Nanook:

Odd Nights Even Nights

NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Wed Feb 09, 2022 10:36 am Would everyone be ok with pre-rolling their saves/no saves? What I mean by this is, privately roll & note down whether or not you're saving Nanook at each Panda count so that we can answer any how to questions during the day and nobody is stuck thinking about this at night.

Also, it allows people to start privately forming ideas of what they're going to do with their saves... We can even probably set objectives like "if you have more than 3 saves by day 3, you should use one randomly... Etc... That way we can communicate all of the mech during the day, all calculated - none revealed. Don't soft claim, don't hard claim.

what dice are we rolling?

Rethinking this. It might not be worth trying to save anyone other than Nanook. In terms of actual value gained by saving other people, we would need 3 successful saves in order to increase our number of miselims from two to three.

Given this, I'm tempted to say we should just do the d3 method because it's prob the only one everyone will be able to understand.

Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Wed Feb 09, 2022 5:07 am I don’t remember what we did mech wise last time, but I think it worked-ish. Except Nut shot the wrong people.

I think maybe we coordinated enough to have the shooter covered, and then could rogue protect likely other targets of it felt necessary.

Scum won by shooting nutella on n7 so clearly it didn't work lol
I don't think you came up with a system in the last game.

Guillotine wrote: ↑Wed Feb 09, 2022 12:43 am

Guillotine wrote: ↑Wed Feb 09, 2022 12:43 am Im not good at plans but i think i got the plan to keep wolves at bay with our saves.

1) We establish the PoE
2) Assign one player in PoE to protect Nanook and we chop them
3) If for any reason Nanook dies, that means the PoE player didnt protect Nanook.
4) Repeat.

That way we make our PoE protect our red panda and the non-poe choose to protect whoever they townread! Genius!

What you think?

Correction

i can't even begin to understand how you thought this would work

s = scum remaining
t = town remaining
d = doctor shots remaining
Pn = odds of protecting nanook
Po = odds of protecting someone else (the target is left to the individual panda's discretion)

Pn = (d / s) * (1 - (t / (s + t)))

Po = Pn / 3

In general, the odds of nanook being unprotected by anyone are (1 - Pn) ^ t

So on night one, regardless of who's eliminated, the probabilities work out to...
Pn = (4 / 4) * (1 - (10 / (4 + 10))) = ~28.6%
Po = Pn / 3 = ~9.5%
The chance of nanook being unprotected is only ~3.5% which is close to ideal imo. Anything under 2% is too low because we'll likely run out of protects too quickly.

I think this formula achieves the goals of:
1) making a protect on nanook more likely if scum have fewer players left alive.
2) making a protect less likely if you've already protected before.
3) allowing a small chance of protecting a townie who isn't nanook, to give the opportunity for saves in other places.

NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Tue Feb 08, 2022 9:45 pm Ok, so basic risk calculation indicates that if we all roll 3, and we only save on a 3 (1/3 of the time)... There's a 1.7% probability of mafia winning instantly with a shot on Nanook -> This isn't a viable shot for them.

If we maintain a ~1.5-2% chance each day (just need to calculate the numbers for each amount of pandas), every scenario, should be trivial...

That gives mafia about a 7% chance of winning in by day 4 (exclusive targeting Nanook), 13% chance with 8 days of targeting...

This is a very good number for town, and I think Nanook can kill mafia faster than this.. I have not calculated the probability of us running out of saves, but I would probably do that privately...

Nobody ever saves anyone but Nanook, and nobody ever claims saves.

"i believe nanook can kill mafia quickly"
*does math assuming nanook will shoot wrong d1*

@NotAnAxehole do you know scum's chance of winning if they miss every kill?

NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Tue Feb 08, 2022 10:22 pm

Urist wrote: ↑Tue Feb 08, 2022 10:15 pm

NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Tue Feb 08, 2022 9:55 pm

Creature wrote: ↑Tue Feb 08, 2022 9:53 pm We should still do some non-NANOOK saving because we're likely losing if we only protect NANOOK. It's 11 v 4 and wolves will get 3 kills every two nights.

Yeah, I'll calculate how much we can allot to that after... And once we all agree on the risk factor, we lock it in and stop playing the mechanics, and just play mafia.

the acceptable risk is roughly:
the amount of "winrate" scum loses by missing a kill... minus 1%

It's scum's probability of winning if they target Nanook exclusively.

what i mean is that we need to ensure the risk of losing by leaving nanook unprotected is less than the risk of scum losing by missing out on a kill. for example, if we assume scum have a WR of 50% going into n1, and if we assume that scum WR drops to 45% if the kill fails, then as long as we keep the risk of nanook being unprotected under 5% we're good.
i haven't done any of the math with regard to winrates but i'm pretty sure the logic is fine.

NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Tue Feb 08, 2022 9:55 pm

Creature wrote: ↑Tue Feb 08, 2022 9:53 pm We should still do some non-NANOOK saving because we're likely losing if we only protect NANOOK. It's 11 v 4 and wolves will get 3 kills every two nights.

Yeah, I'll calculate how much we can allot to that after... And once we all agree on the risk factor, we lock it in and stop playing the mechanics, and just play mafia.

the acceptable risk is roughly:
the amount of "winrate" scum loses by missing a kill... minus 1%

going to try to come up with a plan that doesn't suck balls in a bit
but i wanted to say that i do agree with not claiming. ideal play would be to lie anyway.

@Syn new game-relevant avatar pls

nanook lock town never rescind