The Syndicate

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Thu Mar 18, 2021 7:14 pm also smh that's 372 percent epi do you think there are 3.72 wolves

hey that's anti-mutant

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Thu Mar 18, 2021 7:10 pm gonna take a nice vacation/victory lap in the thread today, anyone who asks me a question will receive a gif

what kinds of gifs

[VOTE: Alison] aubergine

Or Jack.

Also it might be a really good idea to massclaim today.

Seanzie wrote: ↑Wed Mar 17, 2021 3:36 pm
MartinGG99 wrote: ↑Wed Mar 17, 2021 3:30 pm
Seanzie wrote: ↑Wed Mar 17, 2021 3:25 pm Silly question, how many hours until EoD? I am having a hard time figuring this out with daylight savings time.
3 and 1/2 hours, I think.
Hmm, cool, so the poll is 6pm Central Daylight Time now? That works well because that is what I am in.

Sounds about right.

MartinGG99 wrote: ↑Tue Mar 16, 2021 10:06 am
The dead towns
BoKnows - Wastelander
c4e5g3d5 - Wastelander
DrWilgy - Wastelander
falcon45ca - Jagged Jimmy J
Rej - New Reno
staypositivefriend - Hubologist
Sloonei - Wastelander
KZA - NCR
NANOOK - NCR

The town-read; some aren't 100% cleared but for my theory purposes they are.
Epignosis - Chosen One / Arroyo
reywaS / Kylemii - Matt / BoS
MartinGG99 - Louis / New Reno
TonyStarkPrime - IDK what exactly he is but I think he's lock-town or a wolf I would lose to
Urist - Some sort of protective; May be one of our only protectives.
Poison / Syn / Seanzie - Likely Sheriff Marion / Only Redding?
Long Con - Wastelander

The likely or possible towns
Grogu - Hubologist

To Be Determined
Jackofhearts2005 - Unkown
Marmot - Unkown
Spacedaisy / sprityo - Unkown; should be re-evaluated in light of Wolf chop chop.

Slaver
Alison - Slaver

Vault City (Dead)
MacDougall - Vault City
Esooa - Vault City

Enclave
ChopChop - Enclave
Daughter of Omega - Enclave
So my current **working theory** of the game clears Epi + Urist + Me + TSP + Kylemii + Seanzie

Alison 100% as slaver

And if there's any towns left its probably Grogu and LC.

Everyone else should probably be re-evaluated imo. Possibly including Space Daisy / Sprityo.

Oh and btw I thought about Urist possibly being a fake protective and the scum doing something dumb such as shooting Alison since slaver has a vest but I think that would've changed ChopChop's "result" and visit earlier.

Re-posting this as my reads, except LC is put as more town.

There were these interaction earlier before today (D6) that looks like not w/w and spews LC as not-teamed imo.

Long Con wrote: ↑Sat Mar 13, 2021 4:28 pm
ChopChop wrote: ↑Sat Mar 13, 2021 4:06 pm
Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Sat Mar 13, 2021 4:04 pm Ngl my main hesitation in voting Tony is that I feel like I should have a solid read on him and he says I should townread him and I’d be kinda embarrassed to misyeet himnotreal

That’s not a good reason to actually townread him.
He’s doing that because he thinks he’s a good wolf!

If you believe that he’s a wolf and you have lots of information that points towards that you push it.
As long as you point your reasons why, there’s no em brass meant.
Oh, that's rich.

But Tony is pretty suspicious right? I'll [VOTE: Tony] aubergine

Long Con wrote: ↑Sun Mar 14, 2021 10:55 am
TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Sun Mar 14, 2021 3:25 am @Dom the last ten posts is roughly my impression of the case against me
Yeah, for sure. I was just kidding about my vote for you, just wanted to see how it would travel. [VOTE: chopchop] aubergine I told him I would, and he didn't care. Pretty much out of my hands.

Long Con wrote: ↑Sun Mar 14, 2021 6:40 pm
ChopChop wrote: ↑Sun Mar 14, 2021 6:39 pm
Long Con wrote: ↑Sun Mar 14, 2021 6:38 pm
Marmot wrote: ↑Sun Mar 14, 2021 6:35 pm
Long Con wrote: ↑Sun Mar 14, 2021 6:33 pm
Marmot wrote: ↑Sun Mar 14, 2021 6:32 pm
Long Con wrote: ↑Sun Feb 28, 2021 8:03 pm If I'm already outed as town, what kind of fakeclaim should I give to deceive the wolves? Just claim vanilla?

LC did say this on Day 1.
That was just to try and mess with wolves, maybe draw a nightkill.

I know, my point is that I doubt you're a PR because this does look like cover, and so you're either VT or wolf.
You're not wrong.
Is that a VT Hardclaim or an Open Wolf?
Already said, go back and read. Except I really did.

Personal PoE:

Alison/Chop Chop -> Jack -> Marmot -> Sprityo

PoE may be changed slightly depending on the massclaim tomorrow, but I'm not going to hypothesize about unless I live to see it.

Seanzie wrote: ↑Wed Mar 17, 2021 3:25 pm Silly question, how many hours until EoD? I am having a hard time figuring this out with daylight savings time.

3 and 1/2 hours, I think.

I suppose you can be right on that as well, but he did spin up a story about Chop Chop being put down earlier today. But then he immediately voted so unless he forgot Slaver has a vest as well then he probably doesn't have a kill anyways.

Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Wed Mar 17, 2021 12:04 am
MartinGG99 wrote: ↑Tue Mar 16, 2021 11:54 pm I mean, unless enclave is going to claim a Redding role you're basically confirmed town
Who is this aimed at?

Seanize, who replaced Syn, who replaced Posion.

They're Sheriff Marion and undisputed Redding unless someone else is a Redding.

D7 mass claim seems fine to me btw

Might be the best time for it imho.

Just don't let it distract from killing Chop Chop if he's still alive then.

Seanzie wrote: ↑Wed Mar 17, 2021 12:02 am
MartinGG99 wrote: ↑Tue Mar 16, 2021 11:56 pm There's also the issue that Epignosis basically has to kill Marmot (if hubologist) if we never yeet Alison.
If Epi gets a kill at some point, he can just kill Alison himself (why would he kill Marmot over Alison here?). It is possible that some hubologists will die just by NK and such, but if there comes a time where it is very clear that Alison needs to die to stop Epi from scumsiding, then we can yeet her then. It makes no sense to do it until that point though when killing her sooner only limits our options.

I think if Epi was aware of having the ability to kill he would've let us know or used it already. But I'm no mech expert. Or maybe he does, and by voting Alison he can safely kill Chop Chop without worrying much about his own wincon because Alison, as the Slaver, has a vest. She'll just eat up the bullet without worry if she hasn't been attacked yet.

There's also the issue that Epignosis basically has to kill Marmot (if hubologist) if we never yeet Alison.

"But wait, we can just force her to vote"

Yeah right she'll just scum-paint a town and vote there.

I mean, unless enclave is going to claim a Redding role you're basically confirmed town and so if votes start piling up on you she will vote with them.

Otherwise she can just lay back and not vote.

Seanzie wrote: ↑Tue Mar 16, 2021 11:39 pm
MartinGG99 wrote: ↑Tue Mar 16, 2021 11:27 pm
Seanzie wrote: ↑Tue Mar 16, 2021 11:23 pm
MartinGG99 wrote: ↑Tue Mar 16, 2021 11:09 pm We could in effect just lose 3 towns over trying to fight over who controls Alison's wincon

and IMO the chances of us losing that fight are much more likely than winning it
Why are you even thinking about fighting to control Alison's wincon, and where are you getting these 3 towns that we could lose?

Alison can wolfside, and she is still less of a threat than any of the actual wolves. If there are 3 Enclave left, yeeting Alison today locks us into an uphill battle where we have to survive for at least 3 more days even if we vote perfectly. Yeeting Chop today reduces the minimum number of yeets we need to make to win. Tomorrow if we really don't have a good lead on another wolf, it might make sense to chop Alison, but Alison is NOT an essential exe, whereas Chop IS an essential exe. Chop also has more utility to the wolves than Alison does (unless she has a shot and Frank does not, but this is an off chance).
Chop can long-commuter and he can't carry the kill while doing it. He doesn't really have any utility.

Slaver needs 80% of those that I listed dead, including 1 from each faction. She has to achieve that **before Enclave dies and the game ends**. That's why we can lose up to all of those towns, with the third one (if they kill Kyle + Epi) happening at a LYLO situation and she just scum-sides to yeet you with the enclave.
Chop's vote has more utility than Alison's since it can be coordinated in mafiachat. Chop can also read and give suggestions to mafia in mafiachat. Alison's abilities to scumside essentially consist of her having to guess who scum is and then try to vote to mess it up. Alison's vote could accidentally end up breaking a tie and yeeting a wolf, whereas Chop's is essentially guaranteed not to do that.

Yes, Alison could be bad to have around in lylo, but if we don't yeet her, we have one more misexe before lylo than if we do yeet her.

Alison isn't a misexe imo. She doesn't need to know who the wolves are; she already knows who's town like we do.

Such as you.

Updated this btw, and corrected my Hubologist wincon statement.

MartinGG99 wrote: ↑Sun Mar 14, 2021 5:45 pm
JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Fri Feb 26, 2021 12:28 am The Wastelanders win the game if the Enclave are eliminated and no more than one member of the Vault City and Hubologists factions combined is left alive.
Vault City is dead. Hubologists already lost SPF. If there's more than 1 living Hubologist then this is a problem.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Fri Feb 26, 2021 12:28 am The NCR wins the game if the Enclave are eliminated and no more than one member of the Vault City and New Reno factions combined is left alive.
There is likely only 1 New Reno left alive, and Vault City is dead.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Fri Feb 26, 2021 12:28 am The Brotherhood of Steel wins the game if the Enclave are eliminated and no more than one member of the Vault City and Slavers factions combined is left alive.
Vault city is dead, and there's only one slaver.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Fri Feb 26, 2021 12:28 am Arroyo wins the game if the Enclave are eliminated and no more than one member of the Slavers and Hubologists factions combined is left alive.
There's at least one slaver, and if hubologists exists then they haven't solve their non-enclave wincon until only one of them is alive.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Fri Feb 26, 2021 12:28 am Redding wins the game if the Enclave are eliminated and no more than one combined between the Slavers faction and Jagged Jimmy J is left alive.
JJJ got modkilled, and there's only one slaver.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Fri Feb 26, 2021 12:28 am New Reno wins the game if the Enclave are eliminated and no more than one combined between the NCR faction and Jagged Jimmy J is left alive.
Both NCR (likely) and JJJ are dead.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Fri Feb 26, 2021 12:28 am The Hubologists win the game if the Enclave are eliminated and no more than 50% of the members of the Arroyo and Wastelanders factions combined are left alive.
More than likely 50% of Wastelander/Arroyo have died.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Fri Feb 26, 2021 12:28 am Jagged Jimmy J wins the game if the Enclave are eliminated and no more than one member of the New Reno and Redding factions combined is left alive.
JJJ is dead so this doesn't really matter unless you think Falcon deserves a win. This probably gets solved if I or Seanzie dies.

We basically never win the manipulation of Alison imo unless we expect Enlcave to be dumb

Seanzie wrote: ↑Tue Mar 16, 2021 11:23 pm
MartinGG99 wrote: ↑Tue Mar 16, 2021 11:09 pm We could in effect just lose 3 towns over trying to fight over who controls Alison's wincon

and IMO the chances of us losing that fight are much more likely than winning it
Why are you even thinking about fighting to control Alison's wincon, and where are you getting these 3 towns that we could lose?

Alison can wolfside, and she is still less of a threat than any of the actual wolves. If there are 3 Enclave left, yeeting Alison today locks us into an uphill battle where we have to survive for at least 3 more days even if we vote perfectly. Yeeting Chop today reduces the minimum number of yeets we need to make to win. Tomorrow if we really don't have a good lead on another wolf, it might make sense to chop Alison, but Alison is NOT an essential exe, whereas Chop IS an essential exe. Chop also has more utility to the wolves than Alison does (unless she has a shot and Frank does not, but this is an off chance).

Chop can long-commuter and he can't carry the kill while doing it. He doesn't really have any utility.

Slaver needs 80% of those that I listed dead, including 1 from each faction. She has to achieve that **before Enclave dies and the game ends**. That's why we can lose up to all of those towns, with the third one (if they kill Kyle + Epi) happening at a LYLO situation and she just scum-sides to yeet you with the enclave.

I'll be honest some points of this game really show what I have my signature @_@

I completely forgot Hubologists have a unique wincon.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Fri Feb 26, 2021 12:28 am The Hubologists win the game if the Enclave are eliminated and no more than 50% of the members of the Arroyo and Wastelanders factions combined are left alive.

Oh wait.

Marmot wrote: ↑Tue Mar 16, 2021 11:19 pm
MartinGG99 wrote: ↑Tue Mar 16, 2021 11:16 pm But yeah hubologists wanting Alison to slightly scum-side makes sense since they need Epi or LC dead. Unless there's more wastelanders.

There'd have to be 6 Wastelanders/Arroyo left alive and none of them die in order for me to be concerned. I'm not.

You don't think LC is town? He claimed Wastelander/VT on D5 I think.

Grogu is a wolf who tries to hard-core derp-clear repeatedly

or is jut town

But yeah hubologists wanting Alison to slightly scum-side makes sense since they need Epi or LC dead. Unless there's more wastelanders.

im an idiot I misread

Marmot wrote: ↑Tue Mar 16, 2021 10:59 pm I guess I keep coming back to the main point. All town members need Enclave dead. Most town members don't need Alison dead.

Alison needs maybe 1-2 more town dead at this point. Enclave needs to reach parity.

You're a hubologist right?

So would you rather kill Alison or Epignosis?

We could in effect just lose 3 towns over trying to fight over who controls Alison's wincon

and IMO the chances of us losing that fight are much more likely than winning it

MartinGG99 wrote: ↑Tue Mar 16, 2021 11:03 pm Alison basically has to do the same, given a number of the town (including you) are her enemies, and has an unlikelyhood of having a gun.

Town doesn't win in trying to manipulate her imo.

Dom - Arroyo
Esooa - Vault
Mac - Vault
--Dead--

Epi - Arroyo
Seanzie - Redding
Kylemii - BoS

In order to reach 80% or more dead, 2 of the bottom have to die assuming there's no more Arroyo or Redding. And if there is, trying to get Alison to town-side will be tought.

Actually

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Fri Feb 26, 2021 12:28 am The Slaver wins the game if they survive with at least 80% of the combined members (and at least one each) of the Arroyo, Redding, Vault City, and Brotherhood of Steel factions eliminated

They could even kill Epi + Kylemii and Alison would still have to scum-side to get rid of Seanzie.

F8 I mean.

All Enclave has to do is kill maybe 1 and just leave the others to like F5 and Alisno will invaribly scum-side imo.

Seanzie wrote: ↑Tue Mar 16, 2021 10:59 pm
MartinGG99 wrote: ↑Tue Mar 16, 2021 10:55 pm
Seanzie wrote: ↑Tue Mar 16, 2021 10:51 pm
MartinGG99 wrote: ↑Tue Mar 16, 2021 10:40 pm
Alison wrote: ↑Tue Mar 16, 2021 5:47 pm I shot Mac N1 btw. If I hit town then yay, if I hit scum then I claim the shot and take full credit for gunning him down while pretending not to know what happened tp c4.

Too bad he self protected (presumably).
Okay, fine.

Maybe you did shoot.

Fact remains though that Enclave have better ability to manipulate you than town does.
But like... chop vs Alison... Chop doesn't even need to be manipluated, he just literally is a wolf and will do whatever the wolves want. Alison maybe does wolfside, but she would be essentially outed lone wolf, and outed lone wolf is always less of a threat than outed regular wolf.
Yeah we're killing the people who are or are likely going to be manipulated by the Enclave.

The game ends when Enclave + Vault City dies, and that means Alison has to get enough of her enemies killed before Enclave is dead.
But like... Chop has to do that... EVEN MORE... and Chop has access to wolfchat which makes him wayyy more dangerous to town than (novigleft) Alison could be. It is a strict inequality comparison unless Alison has a shot left (and then it is unclear if it is better or not as I explained, due to numbers, it is better to have 2 or 0 shots remaining, not just 1).

Alison basically has to do the same, given a number of the town (including you) are her enemies, and has an unlikelyhood of having a gun.

Town doesn't win in trying to manipulate her imo.

Dom - Arroyo
Esooa - Vault
Mac - Vault
--Dead--

Epi - Arroyo
Seanzie - Redding
Kylemii - BoS

In order to reach 80% or more dead, 2 of the bottom have to die assuming there's no more Arroyo or Redding. And if there is, trying to get Alison to town-side will be tought.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Fri Feb 26, 2021 12:28 am How the hell does the game end?

1) Enclave destroyed by the end of Night 5 -- all blue, cyan, and soft green factions win. Slaver and Vault City may or may not win pending circumstances.

2) Enclave destroyed, Slaver is dead, and Vault City cannot achieve win condition.

3) Enclave destroyed and Vault City has achieved win condition.

4) Enclave and Vault City are both destroyed.

5) Enclave meets win condition.

6) Any other eventualities, if applicable, are assessed by the host case-by-case and a sensible endgame is determined. No endgame will be allowed featuring only "town" (blue, cyan, and soft green) factions -- if all others are eliminated, regardless of win condition, the game will end. If the game is active, at least one non-"town" player is alive (Slaver, Vault City, and/or Enclave).

Seanzie wrote: ↑Tue Mar 16, 2021 10:51 pm
MartinGG99 wrote: ↑Tue Mar 16, 2021 10:40 pm
Alison wrote: ↑Tue Mar 16, 2021 5:47 pm I shot Mac N1 btw. If I hit town then yay, if I hit scum then I claim the shot and take full credit for gunning him down while pretending not to know what happened tp c4.

Too bad he self protected (presumably).
Okay, fine.

Maybe you did shoot.

Fact remains though that Enclave have better ability to manipulate you than town does.
But like... chop vs Alison... Chop doesn't even need to be manipluated, he just literally is a wolf and will do whatever the wolves want. Alison maybe does wolfside, but she would be essentially outed lone wolf, and outed lone wolf is always less of a threat than outed regular wolf.

Yeah we're killing the people who are or are likely going to be manipulated by the Enclave.

The game ends when Enclave + Vault City dies, and that means Alison has to get enough of her enemies killed before Enclave is dead.

Marmot wrote: ↑Tue Mar 16, 2021 10:48 pm I can't tell if this is an argument for or against ChopChop going first.

Its more meant to persuade others than it is an argument that I personally care about.

Alison wrote: ↑Tue Mar 16, 2021 10:41 pm If Enclave leaves my targets alive then I'm going to intentionally deny them the victory because doing so would risk ending the game with my targets alive, thus making me lose.

Enclave's only hope is to kill my targets for me and pray I am grateful enough to vote with them.

I'm not sure if I agree with that per my earlier arguments.

Chance are they can just ensure they kill all but close to 80% of your enemies, but not cross-over.

Besides, I don't like how everyone thinks Town has a better handle on this when they don't. Past games have shown that knowing who the 3P is, even if being uncertain and nothing garunteed about their role, shows the 3P lives and gets a favorable win.

Marmot wrote: ↑Tue Mar 16, 2021 10:38 pm
MartinGG99 wrote: ↑Tue Mar 16, 2021 10:31 pm Heck we also used

"We can win with them"

In Shadow Corridors.

The 3P scum-sided and the scum won with their last member, who was @Marmot as the Thunder Cat sockpuppet account.

These are not the same. We know exactly what Slaver's win con and abilities are here, and whether or not we need them dead.

Can we at least kill Chop Chop first so we can flip his role and talk about him afterward?

If chop-chop votes tomorrow he's going to be spewing or antispewing, if anyone is interested in that. I'm not.

Or none at all and just doesn't vote.

Alison, however, can vote and wouldn't really be (anti-)spewing anything.

Alison wrote: ↑Tue Mar 16, 2021 5:47 pm I shot Mac N1 btw. If I hit town then yay, if I hit scum then I claim the shot and take full credit for gunning him down while pretending not to know what happened tp c4.

Too bad he self protected (presumably).

Okay, fine.

Maybe you did shoot.

Fact remains though that Enclave have better ability to manipulate you than town does.

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Tue Mar 16, 2021 3:19 pm the question of can we manipulate alison into doing what we want is inherently dangerous

^^^^This^^^^^

Enclave have a better ability of doing this than the town does:

1) Some towns are de-facto end-of-story Alison's enemies.
2) The Enclave control the night-kills.

Alison should die today. Then ChopChop.

@Seanzie

The history and the arguments I present here are compelling enough, whether its LYLO or MYLO in the end of the game doesn't really matter imo, and that assumes we get to Lylo and Mylo for sucking so bad as to failing to catch Enclave when we got some strong towns

Where said strong towns can be killed by Alison tonight

Heck we also used

"We can win with them"

In Shadow Corridors.

The 3P scum-sided and the scum won with their last member, who was @Marmot as the Thunder Cat sockpuppet account.

Let's be honest the whole GoC was a test of the argument

"We can win with them"

Only to lose to 3P after ~19,000 posts in that game.

Seanzie wrote: ↑Tue Mar 16, 2021 3:11 pm
TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Tue Mar 16, 2021 3:09 pm alison might also have a shot left
Yes, Alison might, but if both Frank and Alison shoot, we lose one yeet. If only one shoots, we lose one yeet. So the only case where yeeting Alison might make sense is if Alison has a shot, and Frank does not, which I'd guess isn't the case, and also again since we can win with Alison alive, it is optimal to yeet in Enclave here.

It's not a matter of whether

"we can win" with Alison.

Its a matter of "How likely will we win with Alison".

Right now the Enclave have likely asked themselves the same question, and given that they can manipulate night-kills, WIFOM all they want, and etc, they have a better chance of getting Alison to side with them.

Heck ChopChop admitting wolf for no very good reason other than to tell Alison who to shoot

is probably symbollic of the Enclave wanting Chop Chop dead instead of Alison

Like Alison can't 3P-side, she has to town-side or scum-side

and with the current state of the game Town will lose the auction as the Enclave are in a better position to manipulate it

Don't forget that the enclave know who they are so figuring out alignments, especially with the claims and mech info we've given today, its probably obvious to them who most of the rest of the town are.

All they gotta do is tip-toe into balancing killing who they necessarily need to kill in order to live, but also not kill Alison's enemies to get her to scum-side.

GEE, IF ONLY THE ENCLAVE WOULD KILL MY CLEAR-AS-DAY ENEMIES SO I CAN TURN AGAINST THE ENCLAVE

Like, its probably plain obvious to Enclave who the Slaver's enemies are

Seanzie wrote: ↑Tue Mar 16, 2021 3:07 pm
Urist wrote: ↑Tue Mar 16, 2021 3:06 pm we don't lose a yeet by killing alison because she needs to scumside if she wants to win.
We do lose a yeet by killing Alison because Alison can survive and we can still win, and also Frank probably still has a shot left, so the "there are an odd number of players" argument doesn't hold water.

We don't lose a yeet because if we don't yeet her we will likely have yeet one of our own to get her to town-side.

Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Tue Mar 16, 2021 3:04 pm Chop already claimed wolf.

Alsion already claimed slaver and just claimed to be helping Enclave.

Alison wrote: ↑Tue Mar 16, 2021 12:28 pm So I'm just going to stick around in the thread and have a nice nap and hope the mafia don't get killed before they win for me. Best of luck!

Search found 623 matches