The Syndicate

this is probably too tinfoil to actually mean anything but the good villagery wallpost Tangy wrote is pretty close to what I would expect wolf!Vulgard to tell wolf!Tangy to do if she asked him in scumchat how to get me to stop pushing her

when your top townread that you've never misread before starts making posts that look like lolcatting with words

Also Marl's posts on this page blatantly don't come from a perspective of TMI regardless of Vul's alignment

(obviously 'pretending to not know a flip in advance' is fakeable but the specific way he's doing it would be very hard to fake)

When is EoD

I vaguely remember it being different than normal but I don't remember how different and I don't know how to see when a poll closes

hi Vul

what's up

(uh, disclaimer, if you haven't seen the pasta, that's a joke post)

bronana wrote: ↑Tue Jun 01, 2021 3:27 pm [VOTE: sleep] aubergine

we need more information

Yo Bronana

I feel like this might have been a joke post

But also i feel like there's some truth behind every joke and I just got pinged by this

So can you tell me the rationale behind this post?

dyachei wrote: ↑Tue Jun 01, 2021 2:56 pm
Arete wrote: ↑Tue Jun 01, 2021 2:41 pm
bronana wrote: ↑Tue Jun 01, 2021 4:56 am

also @Arete I'd be interested to hear your thoughts on this too since you dug into a lot of these interactions. Anyone else obviously free to also chime in with their thoughts.

well I was mostly looking through their Isos for mentions of Vul/Visor and vice versa so there might be something clearing between Syn/Dizzy or Sun/Dya that I missed but I don't particularly have a reason to think that either of the two teams you mentioned can't work associatively

I don't think that a Vul/Dizzy permutation is plausible
i dont think so either but for a potentially bad reason

what's your reason

bronana wrote: ↑Tue Jun 01, 2021 4:56 am

also @Arete I'd be interested to hear your thoughts on this too since you dug into a lot of these interactions. Anyone else obviously free to also chime in with their thoughts.

well I was mostly looking through their Isos for mentions of Vul/Visor and vice versa so there might be something clearing between Syn/Dizzy or Sun/Dya that I missed but I don't particularly have a reason to think that either of the two teams you mentioned can't work associatively

I don't think that a Vul/Dizzy permutation is plausible

Vulgard wrote: ↑Tue Jun 01, 2021 11:02 am Did you know "chat" is "cat" in French? You could say French cats like to chat.

are you lolcatting

Vulgard wrote: ↑Tue Jun 01, 2021 4:09 am
Arete wrote: ↑Tue Jun 01, 2021 3:38 am
Vulgard wrote: ↑Tue Jun 01, 2021 3:36 am
Arete wrote: ↑Tue Jun 01, 2021 3:33 am
Vulgard wrote: ↑Tue May 25, 2021 4:38 am c4, dya and KZA are in the "no impressions made" club and I would like them to play the game. I do not townread c4 for a carefully voiced scumread (?) on SPF. That's in any average wolf's wolfrange and I think SPF is too quick to clear them regardless of alignment.

dya and KZA just haven't talked about the game much yet. Dya got offended based on a single accusation if I read that correctly, and KZA 5-posted and dipped.
since I feel like no one actually reads my wallposts I'm just going to highlight this post as super important if Vul flips wolf (which, to be clear, I still don't think he will! just. acknowledging the possibility.)

like I feel like I've seen a lot of ambient 'the team is probably just Vul/c4/Dya' floating around and ... no, that's not a thing.
meow
uh

what does this post mean
I'm katze

katze in what way

Arete wrote: ↑Tue Jun 01, 2021 3:38 am
Vulgard wrote: ↑Tue Jun 01, 2021 3:36 am
Arete wrote: ↑Tue Jun 01, 2021 3:33 am
Vulgard wrote: ↑Tue May 25, 2021 4:38 am c4, dya and KZA are in the "no impressions made" club and I would like them to play the game. I do not townread c4 for a carefully voiced scumread (?) on SPF. That's in any average wolf's wolfrange and I think SPF is too quick to clear them regardless of alignment.

dya and KZA just haven't talked about the game much yet. Dya got offended based on a single accusation if I read that correctly, and KZA 5-posted and dipped.
since I feel like no one actually reads my wallposts I'm just going to highlight this post as super important if Vul flips wolf (which, to be clear, I still don't think he will! just. acknowledging the possibility.)

like I feel like I've seen a lot of ambient 'the team is probably just Vul/c4/Dya' floating around and ... no, that's not a thing.
meow
uh

what does this post mean

@Vulgard

Vulgard wrote: ↑Tue Jun 01, 2021 3:36 am
Arete wrote: ↑Tue Jun 01, 2021 3:33 am
Vulgard wrote: ↑Tue May 25, 2021 4:38 am c4, dya and KZA are in the "no impressions made" club and I would like them to play the game. I do not townread c4 for a carefully voiced scumread (?) on SPF. That's in any average wolf's wolfrange and I think SPF is too quick to clear them regardless of alignment.

dya and KZA just haven't talked about the game much yet. Dya got offended based on a single accusation if I read that correctly, and KZA 5-posted and dipped.
since I feel like no one actually reads my wallposts I'm just going to highlight this post as super important if Vul flips wolf (which, to be clear, I still don't think he will! just. acknowledging the possibility.)

like I feel like I've seen a lot of ambient 'the team is probably just Vul/c4/Dya' floating around and ... no, that's not a thing.
meow

uh

what does this post mean

Vulgard wrote: ↑Tue Jun 01, 2021 3:30 am
Arete wrote: ↑Tue Jun 01, 2021 3:15 am @Vulgard

if you get voted out today and are a villager are there any non-mechanical reads (in either direction) that you strongly want pushed
My towncore of Arete/Amy/Sunbae/Nutella/Dizzy/Marl. I am very confident this is pure.

ok I changed my mind again

Vul is just a villager

the logical explanation for why he stopped giving reads as a wolf is that he didn't want to spew anything more, even to the extent that anti-spew can still spew things

but if that's what he was doing then he has no reason to come back and give a legitimate answer to my question

you're all going to tell me this is dumb and I don't care

Vulgard wrote: ↑Tue May 25, 2021 4:38 am c4, dya and KZA are in the "no impressions made" club and I would like them to play the game. I do not townread c4 for a carefully voiced scumread (?) on SPF. That's in any average wolf's wolfrange and I think SPF is too quick to clear them regardless of alignment.

dya and KZA just haven't talked about the game much yet. Dya got offended based on a single accusation if I read that correctly, and KZA 5-posted and dipped.

since I feel like no one actually reads my wallposts I'm just going to highlight this post as super important if Vul flips wolf (which, to be clear, I still don't think he will! just. acknowledging the possibility.)

like I feel like I've seen a lot of ambient 'the team is probably just Vul/c4/Dya' floating around and ... no, that's not a thing.

293 bronana
216 c4e5g3d5
328 dyachei
279 Dyslexicon
274 Marluxion
364 nutella
293 outed wolf
289 staypositivefriend
214 Tangrowth / Chloe / Syn
268 Vulgard

^non mech-clear villagers^

if Vulgard really is redchecked:
(sidenote, while I was doing this I kept running into Vulposts from earlier days that are super villagery)
Outed Wolf is never a wolf with Vulgard

Spoiler: show

This post ~never comes from a partner in my opinion, there's no need to try to rub your partner's face in how they were WRONG and BAD and MISREAD SOMEONE IN A GAME OF MAFIA when you in fact have TMI that they they didn't do that. It's relevant to me that he wasn't (in this post) trying to shade him off of it, which is what I would expect from distancing, but rather to make fun of him, which doesn't make sense from the PoV of a wolf talking about another wolf.

Marl is never a wolf with Vulgard
The entire sequence that happened near the beginning of the day where Marl thought Vul was trying to get him to fake jailkeeper never happens if Marl/Vulgard are W/W in my opinion, I think Marl really believed that Vul was JK and trying to soft to him. This is only reinforced by the fact that Vul claims he didn't intend to claim jailkeeper in the first place.

Dizzy is probably just a villager

Spoiler: show

Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Fri May 28, 2021 8:03 pm @sunbae I found the things that made me tinfoil Dya/Vulgard.
May or may not be extremely dumb.
Vulgard wrote: ↑Fri May 28, 2021 7:32 amI'm kinda townreading Dya for their consistent frustration over being scumread, but at the same time I can only mildly townread them for it for so long. This and their Alison scumread they've been repping for a while are the only things I remember Dya doing, while most other players have voiced reads on every other player in the game, done significant analysis, etc.
Using the word "repping" is interesting, because it doesn't signal to me a mindframe that it's a read Dya is having, but rather projecting.
However, first of all, lol language. And I also gathered that Vulgard, from what I understand, is not a native English speaker like myself. And I myself may misread the significance of this particular word here. But it crossed my mind.
Vulgard wrote: ↑Fri May 28, 2021 11:32 am I think I've been fairly consistent in saying that you haven't been exclusively tunneling Alison, but that your read on Alison is definitely the highlight of your contributions so far. It's the first thing I associate with you in this game, outside of the constant defensive attitude. The defensive attitude part is something I could see being NAI based on how I saw you play as town sometimes, but yeah.
Speaking of reads outside of Alison, do the flips give you more reads outside of Alison? What do you think @ my townread of Alison?
Also this. I don't quite understand, because they say the defensive attitude could be NAI based on how they have seen Dya as town. Does this mean that Dya is not town here? Is it meant to say "based on how I saw you play as scum"? Am I reading this wrong or reading too much into this?
To be clear, I actually read Vulgard as more town. And I don't really have a read on Dya. But these are two things that crossed my mind, and they are very detailed, so it may just be me reading too much into things.

I don't think wolves would really have thought they needed to distance from wolf Vulgard, particularly when they had an Arete right there to sponge + blame if he ever flipped. Wolves do sometimes do ?? things for wolf reasons but I think that regardless this particular sort of nitpick would be really weird to come from a partner, like, it's not a "normal" read it's a detailed nitpick of a quirk of language, which is not really the first thing most people would think of if they wanted to theatre.
Bronana is probably a villager

Spoiler: show

Vulgard wrote: ↑Fri May 28, 2021 3:23 pm Bronana / Zack:
- First take on Gavial is that his posts didn't make any impression.
- Notes that Gavial seems to have a polarized meta but doesn't comment on it beyond that.
- Claims Gavial would get bussed hard if he was a wolf. ...For some reason, I dislike this comment. It looks TMI-ish to me, even though the actual wording is fine. I'll bring it up here for clarity.
bronana wrote: ↑Tue May 25, 2021 5:17 pm
staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Tue May 25, 2021 5:03 pm
Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Tue May 25, 2021 5:02 pm If you believe Gavial is mafia, we should chop someone on his wagon right now. There will be mafia there if Gavial is mafia.
how does that work?
I came into this game gavial would get bussed hard if he's a wolf, based on how his meta has been described.
Plus any random grouping of five players has approximately a 75% chance of having at least one wolf, if my math is right.
Spoiler: show
1 - (13 / 17)^5 = 73.85% of at least one wolf
if you want to assume "I am town and I am not one of those five players" = 1 - (12 / 16)^5 = 76.3% of at least one wolf
There are some underlying assumptions about votes on a wagon being independent events which isn't really true, but whatever, close enough. Been awhile since I took any stats or probability courses though. Yes this a useless post a wolf could easily make, sue me.

- Immediately followed by asking Gavial... this. I'm going to quote this post as well, so I can check if other people see what I'm seeing. I get the impression these two posts are TMI on Gavial being a villager, even though the actual wording looks fine.
bronana wrote: ↑Tue May 25, 2021 5:20 pm
Gavial wrote: ↑Tue May 25, 2021 5:18 pm Why do I have 5 players voting me?
Not that I really care much anyway since I’m multi-balling and I’m only VT.
Just a shame people don’t like me that much.
dude what is this weaksauce
where's the seth that's like "these are the wolves BLAM these are the town BAM im a GOD sheep me" ?
I really think this is Zack talking to someone he knows is a villager and checking if he's going to damn himself further or not.
- Calls Gavial outright mafia after this.
- Dya is the other wolfread at the time.
- Claims he doesn't see the point of Dizzy treating Gavial like they did regardless of Gavial's alignment. It's a sentiment I actually share and it's a major reason why I townread Dizzy. That said, I'm not sure if Zack is the person who came out with this take first, and I also find it decently likely this could come from a wolf, so I'm not awarding him many townpoints for it.
- Bounces off Amy's wolfread on Gavial and agrees (and reiterates) that Gavial is playing nothing like his towngame.
- I ask about his take on Dizzy implying Dizzy isn't a wolf because of their odd treatment of Gavial. Zack responds to it, and the response is FINE, but he writes an addendum that "he's a little worried that people cleared Dizzy way too easily." I dislike this. It's hedgy, and it also reads like "I think this points to Dizzy being town (treatment of Gavial) but they also don't deserve an easy clear so don't actually call them locktown please." I didn't notice this on my first reading, but I think it's wolfy now, unless Dizzy is a wolf (I don't think wolf!Zack adds this comment if he was talking about his partner Dizzy rather than v!Dizzy; he can just rep a townread without consequence, boosting his teammate's position in the game).
- Claims Gavial is doing nothing.
- Claims Gavial and KZA are his top wolfreads when Nutella asks him about... dya. When it comes to Dya, Zack apparently has no idea anymore, since he posted a shrug emoji.
- Has no idea what KZA is even posting, which is something I actually vibed with back when I saw it. Could see this being W/W with KZA, though. It isn't actually calling KZA mafia, it's more like a sign of confusion/exasperation/whatever.
- Wonders about Arete potentially townreading Gavial.
- Asks SPF about potential bussers of Gavial. Noting here that SPF is actually saying she's 70% confident Gavial's mafia, not 100%. Basically preflipping Gavial as mafia here, assuming the question is even genuine.
- Keeps discussing how nonsensical KZA's treatment of Gavial is. It looks pretty decent in a vacuum since he's discussing a wolf's nonsensical posting. The fact he's following up on his prior suspicion is a good look, I don't see him visibly pushing on KZA, though. I'm noting the absence of concern over Gavial's alignment; he does ask Arete why they're potentially TRing Gavial (that's the implication of their singular "oh?" aimed at Arete) but doesn't follow it up with any behavioral change or anything.
- Votes Gavial despite discussing KZA's nonsensical treatment of Gavial for a while. ...Hm.
Overall, I have several points of concern. The treatment of Gavial looks decent overall, but there are several points where I suspect Zack has TMI on Gavial being a villager, particularly in the two posts I put in quotes. There's also the little interaction we had about his read on Dizzy @ Dizzy's treatment of Gavial, where it felt like he didn't want Dizzy to be too townread from it despite voicing the townlean himself. He also has a profound lack of interest in Gavial, particularly after it became clear Gavial was going to be yeeted day 1. He does question KZA a fair bit, but never pushes for KZA over Gavial. He seems surprisingly content about the state of affairs, neither committing to the Gavial yeet too hard (outside of quietly supporting it) nor trying to get KZA yeeted (though he did call KZA's train of thought incomprehensible).
I still think Zack could be town despite this. It's possible I misattributed signs of TMI to his posts there, particularly since I admit the language itself shouldn't be concerning. But I still get the impression that he's just mafia.

If you start from the PoV where Vulgard is a wolf and read the specific way he hedges on Bronana, and evaluate it both from the perspective where he's a wolf hedging on a wolf so that he doesn't have to push him super hard vs. the perspective where he doesn't want to look bad if Bronana flips V, I think it makes much more sense of the latter. The point is to push Bronana, the hedge is to hedge against being wrong (this is actually true regardless of his alignment, just, in one case he's a lot more confident in being wrong)

c4 is ....... probably >rand V. There are definitely some

posts later on in his ISO, but at the beginning of his ISO he spends a substantial amount of time trying to discredit townreads on him, but not in a way that seemed remotely oriented towards getting cred. Not sure if I would lock it in but personally I wouldn't go there tomorrow if Vul flips wolf today.

Vulgard wrote: ↑Tue May 25, 2021 4:38 am c4, dya and KZA are in the "no impressions made" club and I would like them to play the game. I do not townread c4 for a carefully voiced scumread (?) on SPF. That's in any average wolf's wolfrange and I think SPF is too quick to clear them regardless of alignment.
dya and KZA just haven't talked about the game much yet. Dya got offended based on a single accusation if I read that correctly, and KZA 5-posted and dipped.

also this doesn't say anything individually about c4 or Dya's alignment but this is like never three wolves if Vulgard is a wolf
other than that I didn't see anything that made me super strongly feel that him + another player were never W/W

If Outed Wolf is Mafia:

Worth noting that in that world he's very likely to be the wolf roleblocker which makes him more likely to bus than other wolves would be.
Vulgard is never a wolf
see above section on why Outed Wolf is never a wolf with Vulgard
Bronana is, like, probably not a wolf?

outed wolf wrote: ↑Wed May 26, 2021 8:54 am calling me going through the motions is interesting, its a charge id level against people who are not me this game lol
(hell i think bronana would be a more accurate target for that than me)

this probably looks like a weak reason but this deflection (if it comes from a wolf in the first place) is more wolf-deflecting-onto-a-villager than wolf-deflecting-onto-a-wolf
c4/Dya is probably not the world because of how he's been trying to push them as specifically W/W bussing each other
Marl is probably a villager this, I think he would have some amount of difficulty faking the jailkeeper-hypocover-with-c4-target-for-Vul if he had TMI that Vul wasn't the jailkeeper on account of knowing that blocking c4 wouldn't have stopped the factional kill. (technically this doesn't rule out some of the more ??? lolmech worlds)
other than that I couldn't find anything that strongly made me feel not W/W
worth noting
Marl and Bronana are probably-not-wolves with both Vul and Outed Wolf
if there's some other weird mech stuff
this section was originally going to be trying to figure out what sort of wolf team would make that kind of mech mistake but apparently the roleblocker was only two-shot so it actually makes sense as not a mistake. lolarete.

@Vulgard

if you get voted out today and are a villager are there any non-mechanical reads (in either direction) that you strongly want pushed

oh you have another post that's like

an actual post

okay

Vulgard wrote: ↑Tue Jun 01, 2021 2:58 am I think we should sleep, we don't have enough information.

...should I keep writing the associative-reads-if-Outed Wolf-is-the-wolf-roleblocker mech world half of the post I'm working on

or are you just lolcatting with words

I really really don't want you to be a wolf!!!!!

Amy wrote: ↑Mon May 31, 2021 10:00 pm
Syn wrote: ↑Mon May 31, 2021 7:28 pm visor is being funny which is >rand mafia
@Arete how does this make you feel

I think it indicates that regardless of Syn's alignment we disagree on what sort of things are wolfy

I don't actually think it's a super AI disagreement, most wolves make fake reads for real reasons (like they'll say someone is doing something that they actually believe it's generally wolfy/villagery)

and I think I understand your point better about my thoughts being really weird, at the time I was confused about that

dyachei wrote: ↑Mon May 31, 2021 8:42 pm
Arete wrote: ↑Mon May 31, 2021 8:38 pm the benefit to a Dya/Vul/X wolfteam of having Dya openwolf here is that if Dya gets voted out Vul would 100 percent be able to kill Sunbae, since the jailkeeper can't target consecutively.

but that requires that Vul be a wolf and I don't want to believe that.
im not openwolfing though. or wolfing at all

tell me, what benefit do you see to the rest of the day without knowing vulgard's flip?

and if you think the way you do, why are you voting me? isn't that what I supposedly want?

me: 'Dya is posting cat pics. are they lolcatting?'

me: 'ok they said they weren't lolcatting but they also kept it up, I think they're lolcatting and just messing with me'

me: 'sweet, free wolf, I'm going to vote them'

me: 'why are they lolcatting though??? it doesn't make sense???? like a villager is already dying, if they want to lolcat they might as well do it tomorrow'

me: 'oh no. if Vul is scum then it actually makes sense. aa.'

the benefit to a Dya/Vul/X wolfteam of having Dya openwolf here is that if Dya gets voted out Vul would 100 percent be able to kill Sunbae, since the jailkeeper can't target consecutively.

but that requires that Vul be a wolf and I don't want to believe that.

dyachei wrote: ↑Mon May 31, 2021 8:20 pm

it's boxed in

Syn wrote: ↑Mon May 31, 2021 8:17 pm why would dya be giving up even if vulgard is a wolf and they're partners

¯\_(ツ)_/¯

I was trying to figure out earlier if they were posting cat pictures as a brief break or something or if they were actually just a given up wolf but the fact that they've kept doing it makes me think the latter

dyachei wrote: ↑Mon May 31, 2021 8:15 pm
Arete wrote: ↑Mon May 31, 2021 8:14 pm Dya choosing now to lolcat makes me vaguely scared that they're trying to save wolf!Vulgard but I really really don't want to believe that's true
im not lolcatting though

okay

do you have, like, new reads, or anything else that might indicate that you are in fact a villager, and not a wolf who is giving up

who do you want to kill today

Dya choosing now to lolcat makes me vaguely scared that they're trying to save wolf!Vulgard but I really really don't want to believe that's true

(someone please tell me if I'm misreading this and Dya secretly loves posting cat pictures as town but this feels like it has a lot of Arete-lolcatting-in-FoL-28 energy)

I guess Vul is the only one who actually knows what that means but

yeah

[VOTE: Dyachei] aubergine

dyachei wrote: ↑Mon May 31, 2021 7:48 pm
outed wolf wrote: ↑Mon May 31, 2021 7:47 pm dya with the cats

positive signs villabros
nah, just bored

okay so like I don't want to be like 'Dya cat pics? dya wolf?' but why is your response to being bored to do the universally-acknowledged sign of being a given up wolf

or is your claim to not be lolcatting sarcasm

bronana wrote: ↑Mon May 31, 2021 7:45 pm
JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Sun May 23, 2021 7:29 pm- Role blocked/jailed players are not counted as having targeted anyone. A tracker who targets a role blocked player who attempted to perform an action will receive a result indicating that their target targeted nobody.
isn't that the result amy claimed on dizzy - didn't target anyone? we sure amy wasn't roleblocked?

I think what that's saying is that if a tracker targets a player who gets roleblocked, the player who gets roleblocked will seem to visit no one even if they tried to perform a night action

e.g. if Hally is the vig and Amy is the tracker and JJJ is the roleblocker, and JJJ roleblocks Hally while Hally shoots KZA, then Hally would appear to visit no one

dyachei wrote: ↑Mon May 31, 2021 7:44 pm

are you lolcatting or is the cat picture just for no reason

nod

KZA wrote: ↑Tue May 25, 2021 9:30 pm
Vulgard wrote: ↑Tue May 25, 2021 4:38 am c4, dya and KZA are in the "no impressions made" club and I would like them to play the game. I do not townread c4 for a carefully voiced scumread (?) on SPF. That's in any average wolf's wolfrange and I think SPF is too quick to clear them regardless of alignment.

dya and KZA just haven't talked about the game much yet. Dya got offended based on a single accusation if I read that correctly, and KZA 5-posted and dipped.

Vulgard wrote: ↑Tue May 25, 2021 8:12 am I could say similar things about KZA, for that matter. Except KZA's ISO is even worse. Not only does it have fewer posts, but its only attempt at engagement is a thin townread on SPF. Also, bows out of reading Gavial instead of even trying. Terrible look so far. The point about "looking out of touch with the thread" also applies here. Dizzy just above me is open about the fact they won't engage with the game (not sure how to read that at the moment). KZA here is low-efforting and being quiet about it.

Stupid read, but KZA and Dizzy aren't W/W based on that. I doubt they would both do this as wolves, and in such a different manner, too. If they wanted to meme and become the slankwolf collective, they'd either both do it like Dizzy or both like KZA. I understand if people consider this read stupid, though.
sorry to bring up old stuff, I've been working a lot and not really posting

wanna walk me through this 0-100? I don't really see how you made this progression when I had 0 posts between those 2

the reason I ask is that this is literally the only mention of or interaction with Vul in his Iso and while it's definitely not out of the range of W/W your read felt weirdly confident given the evidence it was theoretically based off of, which made me think you might be getting information from scumchat

(uh for reference if you aren't getting info from scumchat, the reason Vul is the top wagon is that Sunbae, the jailkeeper, says that she jailkept him with no nightkills -- Amy had claimed Tracker on D2 and wasn't roleblocked, which is plausibly indicative that wolves were yoloing a kill attempt on her)

Syn wrote: ↑Mon May 31, 2021 7:03 pm from kza's enormous ISO I have determined that all signs point to vulgard

when you say this do you mean 'KZA's ISO, and also other reasons which you chose not to mention and are summarizing as "kza's enormous ISO",' or do you mean 'actually literally just KZA's ISO'

I think if I read Outed Wolf's posts from the specific perspective where he's the wolf roleblocker who got jailkept trying to block Amy N1, and whose team tried to kill Vul N2, they're more or less exactly what I would expect to see in that world (particularly if Marl is also a villager)

Spoiler: show

outed wolf wrote: ↑Sun May 30, 2021 7:09 pm (okay you can)

Vulgards an interesting one

outed wolf wrote: ↑Sun May 30, 2021 7:11 pm It's possible wolves shot vulgard to jk dodge so they could kill Amy unprotected tomorrow

But then you RB Amy

So unlikely I guess

outed wolf wrote: ↑Sun May 30, 2021 7:14 pm C4 vulgard dya work for y'all?

outed wolf wrote: ↑Sun May 30, 2021 7:20 pm
Arete wrote: ↑Sun May 30, 2021 7:16 pm ok so this is a really dumb theory and if Vul is somehow a wolf then saying it is super minus EV because it just tells him what to fakeclaim

but

if Sunbae is a wolf who carried the kill

he would have TMI that Marl is faking (since he would know that c4 didn't carry the kill)

and TMI that the real jailkeeper is going to out him

and he would probably put together with Marl + Vul's conversation at SoD that Vul was the actual jailkeeper

and this is all very convoluted but I think it's more likely than the world where I was wrong about Vul
this is horrendous pal

outed wolf wrote: ↑Sun May 30, 2021 8:30 pm

in more serious news i generally believe sunbaes claim but we'll see what people say

i think dya is a wolf in most worlds and probably didnt carry the kill in case they were blocked (which would be a reasonable assumption i think)

sunbaes progression on vulgard is perfectly followable, his progression on me is perfectly followable

i think c4 wasnt outed but made outed wolf posts anyway (we've all done the same shit he did when weve been outed as a wolf)

dya/c4/vulgard makes sense to me

i think arete is ego attached to ready vul correctly but they can die anyway if wrong

outed wolf wrote: ↑Sun May 30, 2021 8:41 pm i mean its just vulgard/c4/dya right?

outed wolf wrote: ↑Sun May 30, 2021 8:45 pm i think vulgard was just tryna go deep when he knows the village is gonna catch onto c4 and dya

i got other stuff to do today so dont expect any digging here

outed wolf wrote: ↑Sun May 30, 2021 8:51 pm i dont think vulgard was intending for it to be a proper claim

i think he was doing it for town cred raisins

outed wolf wrote: ↑Sun May 30, 2021 11:20 pm Arete just going down with the ship or?

outed wolf wrote: ↑Mon May 31, 2021 1:46 am There is a world where the wolves shot vulgard and didn't RB Amy but idk it's not optimal at all for wolves to do that lol

outed wolf wrote: ↑Mon May 31, 2021 3:30 am Hmm. Expecting Amy to be blocked from the jailkeep is theoretically viable

Vulgards still a weird kind of kill, but now that you mention it it is a possibility

It's definitely not what I'd have done as a wolf though

outed wolf wrote: ↑Mon May 31, 2021 4:27 am what if: marl w thought vul was the jk

shot him

sunbae accidentally saved the day

outed wolf wrote: ↑Mon May 31, 2021 11:15 am
Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Mon May 31, 2021 11:05 am Um.

Why is the story not this:

Vulgard claims JK to Marl in night chat. Marl is mafia and believes the claim. Marl then tells his team that Vulgard is JK. They decide to both NK Vulgard and block Vulgard. This is always the best play for mafia if they think Vul is JK, and this explains why Amy could track. Assuming block trumps JK.

Sunbae however is the real JK and targets Vulgard, so he doesn’t die.

What am I missing?

If you believe Vulgard is town, should your vote not always be on Marl? And I rather believe Vulgard is town.

Is this not just the actions that makes the most sense? Mafia would rather kill JK than 2-shot Tracker. They would also rather block JK, as Vulgard (if he was JK) would be able to stop the kill on him with some luck.

Yes???
I agree with this fwiw

If vulgards a villager marluxion has to be a wolf

No reason why anyone would kill vulgard otherwise

outed wolf wrote: ↑Mon May 31, 2021 11:26 am I mean either vulgard is a wolf who got blocked

Or he's a villager who got saved

If he's a villager who got saved the only one who has a reason to kill him is marluxion with the jk stuff. I can't find a legit reason for a single other person in the game to kill him. It's not like he was a threat, nobody was listening to him after gavial. And I doubt Chloe or arete kill him just because they know him

We just have to decide if we think vulgard is wolf RB that got blocked (most likely wolf role if he's a wolf) which is why Amy isn't blocked

Or if marluxion shot vulgard because he thought he claimed jailkeeper and potentially roleblocked him too (cause didn't RB Amy)

outed wolf wrote: ↑Mon May 31, 2021 11:27 am Marluxion pushing hard for vulgard to die is a thing too

outed wolf wrote: ↑Mon May 31, 2021 11:31 am Either way there's a wolf in vul/marl

outed wolf wrote: ↑Mon May 31, 2021 11:36 am Sure that is also possible.

I think I lean toward marl being a wolf rn but I need to sleep on it and throw some darts with others on it a bit

Vulgards posting where he goes nowhere with 2000 words isn't exactly inspiring confidence

outed wolf wrote: ↑Mon May 31, 2021 12:02 pm I mean I just can't imagine shooting vulgard here as a wolf unless I was super super super confident he was jk

And marl has the reason to be confident

outed wolf wrote: ↑Mon May 31, 2021 12:03 pm Nobody was listening to vulgard lol

outed wolf wrote: ↑Mon May 31, 2021 12:04 pm I'm tired as hell and gonna save some posts

I don't buy any of the theatrics and I don't buy the wolves shooting vulgard as a random pr hunt

See y'all later

outed wolf wrote: ↑Mon May 31, 2021 1:22 pm im fine killing vulgard

i think if we're assuming optimal play by the wolves then vulgard is a wolf plain and simple.

outed wolf wrote: ↑Mon May 31, 2021 1:58 pm er, vulgard and i can both be villas

(also id never not rb amy lol cmon)

outed wolf wrote: ↑Mon May 31, 2021 2:23 pm look sunbae, its possible wolves made a bad play

i dont think its super likely but the world exists

i just dont wanna get shrug killed tomorrow in case you are wrong cuz im a villabro

like essentially he goes 'yeah, Vul is just a wolf here, also his posts today are wolfy and Arete defending him is wolfy. we should kill him. technically he could be a villager though? but he's not a villager. also there's no way a wolf would have made the sort of mechanically bad play that would have been necessary for Vul to be a villager here.'

and then when the Marl thing comes up he's like 'yeah actually Marl or Vul definitely has a wolf. for sure. the alternative where wolves are mechanically incompetent is pretty ridiculous.'

and then when the specific he-is-roleblocker-who-targeted-Amy-N1 world comes up he's like 'wait no if Vul is a villager then maybe the wolves are just mechanically incompetent. you shouldn't kill me just because he flipped villa.'

which like

'wolves could be mechanically incompetent and you shouldn't kill me just because Vul flipped town' is a perspective that makes sense for a villager to have

but he was much less willing to believe the 'wolves did something mechanically incompetent' theory when it was two other players (Marl + Vul) who people were suggesting might be domed together than when it was him and Vulgard -- if it's a plausible theory then it should be a plausible theory no matter who the non-Vul player is

and despite expressing the belief that even independent of mechanics, considering specifically Vul's posts today Vul is likely to flip scum, he seems legitimately worried about the possibility of him flipping town, which feels weird with his PoV

also I think there's very likely to be a wolf in Vul/Outed Wolf based on the fact that Sunbae is the only one actually pushing for a world where they have to be V/W, whereas if they were V/V it would make sense for wolves to want to encourage that dichotomy (which no one has been doing)

[VOTE: Outed Wolf] aubergine

nutella wrote: ↑Mon May 31, 2021 5:31 pm it's ok arete happens to everyone

if he's actually a wolf here I'm going to cry

I still think he's town but like 85 percent town rather than like 99 percent town and almost entirely because of days 1-2

Vulgard wrote: ↑Mon May 31, 2021 5:27 pm I'm not going to post anymore unless something wild happens.

^aaaaa

???

is Nutella bouncing back and forth like a ping-pong ball multiple times in the same page normal?

heya Syn

have you had the chance to read the thread?

also if you're the Jailkeeper you need to hardclaim today and claim your target, I don't really think that's likely but

Spoiler: show

when you write posts in this tone it scares me

please stop scaring me

with that being said, the mechanical situation is [whatever mech scenario makes him a villager], my reasoning for this is that he's town and so cannot have been the wolf carrying the factional kill

this is a bit flippant but like, I don't know what the specific mechanical situation was, that's not something I can confidently figure out, all I can do is try to backsolve the mech situation from my reads

fwiw Sunbae is right that Vul's posts from while I was sleeping are different (and closer to his wolfrange) compared to his posts on other days

I'm inclined to think that that's because he was fake redchecked and not because he's a wolf but I acknowledge that I had a preexisting strong read that he was a villager

Dya, I'm a little unclear on your thought process in getting from 'Vul is redchecked, die' to thinking he's a villager. Can you walk me through how you got there on him?

idk this might be a dumb take but for me the Bronana post was like ... it felt townie because it had a lot of words but it didn't actually move the needle for me when I considered it rationally? it's easy to look vaguely villagery in an isolated wallpost

oh right

I just remembered the Marl derpclear and that's still not fake unless he forgot how many wolves there were as scum

[insert 20 posts of Marl complaining that I'm reading him on that instead of on the content of his posts, because he feels it's unfair for him to be cleared off of something like that]

[VOTE: Chloe] aubergine

I think Chloe completely dodging the thread for ten hours (ten hours that were dominated by a probable V/V thunderdome) is not great and her mindset w.r.t. Alison yesterday is also not great

(like not that she would never be busy for ten hours but it's the ten hours directly following SoD)

Marluxion wrote: ↑Mon May 31, 2021 3:48 am
Vulgard wrote: ↑Mon May 31, 2021 3:47 am I retract my townread on Marl for not even considering I am telling the truth.

Going to backread real quick.
Mechanics do not lie
silver tongued people who attempt to pocket me using my own damn neighborhood chat do

I went through my entire game history and marked every game that I could remember where someone falsely claimed a redcheck on a villager (not counting games where it was a meme or a reactiontest). Some of them are for circumstances that don't apply here (framers, misreading their role PM, being a wolf, etc.), but not all of them.

It's ten out of eighty-one, five if you only count the ones where a villager was the one claiming the check. Which isn't a lot, per se, but there are a lot more fake redchecks on the list than times-I-misread-Vulgard.

okay so here's why this post ~always comes from town!Vulgard

Vulgard wrote: ↑Mon May 31, 2021 3:08 am Okay.

1. I hardclaim VT. Unless someone else CC's this, Sunbae is just the jailkeeper. Besides, the solving they've been doing off my red flip (wrong, but we'll get to that later) looks like they genuinely believe they have a red on me and not like a wolf trying to exploit the no-kill to get me killed.

to a certain extent I gave Vulgard an out by coming up with the Sunbae theory, obviously my intention wasn't 'come up with an excuse he could use as wolf' but nonetheless that was an effect of what I did, and he didn't take it, he instead went with the VT possibility even though that's less believable.

worth noting that in a previous game where Vul was redchecked as a wolf (parity copped as unaligned with a villager) he was basically like 'katze scum vote katze' (katze was the villager) and then when someone brought up the possibility of a framing effect (which existed in the setup) he was like 'I guess kat was framed' once other people started to be like 'kat was framed' https://forum.throneoflies.com/t/fol-fo ... 82831/2991 -- a major contrast with his approach here

Vulgard wrote: ↑Mon May 31, 2021 3:08 am 2. I was saved from a kill last night. That's the only explanation. I have no idea why the wolves didn't roleblock Amy. It's possible they didn't think they needed to, or it was WIFOM, or something else. In theory, a "no movement" result from Amy on a wolf would slightly improve said wolf's position.

This is a minor point but assuming the wolfteam is mechanically competent they would just have the roleblocker carry both the kill and the roleblock, which doesn't seem to have occurred to Vulgard in this post when he talks about a wolf trying to get a no movement result to improve their position.

Vulgard wrote: ↑Mon May 31, 2021 3:08 am
3. The Marl and c4 thing you are completely misinterpreting. Marl also misunderstood me. We did claim jailkeeper to each other, but I thought I botched it and decided to go with "believe it or don't believe it" - type of posting with Marl in our night chat. I did think it might be useful to fake claim JK in case he turned out to be a wolf; I also considered softing JK today to better sell it. I've tried the whole game not to spew myself VT. At no point was I trying to soft a red on c4. The reason I asked SPF about her shield on c4 had to do with my reads, some of which I discussed overnight with Marl. My read on c4, I did discuss with him. I ended up thinking c4's posts were almost as bad as dya's and he didn't even try to save Alison when his top wolf suspect, dya, was pushing there. I thought that looked pretty terrible with Alison flipping V and I was going to push that. I asked SPF about her shield on c4 because I would find it suspicious if she were still shielding him given all that, and me and Marl both agreed to some levels of paranoia about SPF (though Marl straight up thinks she can be a wolf).

this is just a town!Vul thought process, and I totally believe that the c4 thing was a misunderstanding (which basically makes sense to me) -- this also explains why Vul just left the thread when Marl claimed, if he wasn't expecting Marl to claim then he would feel more inclination to do things like 'sleep' and less inclination to do things like 'stick around and watch the fireworks'

Vulgard wrote: ↑Mon May 31, 2021 3:08 am 4. The string of posts you're claiming was me softing a red on c4 was me actually hinting something to Marl. Me and Marl both had Sunbae in our PoE in our night chat. Zack posted something I interpreted as him claiming a red on Sunbae, and that is what I was hinting at when I talked to Marl. I was wondering if he saw it too, because if he did and if the claim was true, we were collectively correct on a PoE read and it would be awesome. It would mean our nightchat got us somewhere. The thing about my JK stuff and claiming a red on c4 was all your narrative, I never planned to do any of this. Honestly, I'm disappointed everybody turned on me instantly (minus Arete) and never considered a different world.

I find his comments about thinking Bronana was softing a red on Sunbae to be completely believable because I thought the same thing at that time -- he could technically be pocketing me with this since I mentioned it in the thread overnight, but his posting at the time makes sense when viewed from that PoV. 'Bronana was softing a red on Sunbae' is a perspective he obviously wouldn't have as wolf unless the factional kill target was randomly Sunbae

also the thing about how he was excited because it would mean the nightchat got somewhere is super villagery, don't @ me

Vulgard wrote: ↑Mon May 31, 2021 3:08 am
I am town. I am not CCing Sunbae; the real JK should do that if he's fake. I don't know why Amy wasn't roleblocked, but I know I was attacked last night.

Stop solving around my red flip, because I am town and Sunbae got a save on me. That's a clear, not a redcheck. Though I understand why you think it's a redcheck, at least consider my point of view and try to solve with me. Not AROUND me, and certainly not around my red flip.

And next time, please let me explain myself instead of instantly making assumptions. Especially when I've barely even posted.

I don't actually have a response to this but if I'm dissecting this post I might as well leave it in

okay so I have another theory

this theory is probably even dumber than the last theory

wolves killed Vulgard for ... reasons, probably a mix of 'thinking he was the jailkeeper' (tbc this isn't shade on Marl, he hasn't done anything that spewed himself VT so he would have been in the PR pool) + 'him and I being masons'

wolves expected Amy to be jailkept and so didn't feel the need to roleblock her (the other EXTREMELY tinfoil possibility that I don't actually believe at all is that specifically outed wolf is the wolf roleblocker and targeted Amy night 1, but was blocked by Sunbae (allowing Amy to get a check off))

alternatively wolves expected Amy to holster and decided to save the roleblock for tomorrow night? but that's really galaxy brain and unlikely

none of these theories make sense but he's a villager so there has to be something that explains it???

[VOTE: Unvote] aubergine

sorry for tunnelling you Sunbae, I got wrapped up in a specific narrative of Vulgard-being-the-jailkeeper and didn't really consider VTgard worlds

Vulgard is bleeding town right now

and I have no idea what happened last night because no possibility makes mechanical sense unless the wolves are completely incompetent

ftr I strongly suspect that Chloe either literally completely forgot about the game or is intentionally choosing not to post

which in the latter scenario would be super wolf-AI for her (regardless of Vulgard's alignment, actually)

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