The Syndicate

nutella wrote: ↑Mon May 31, 2021 1:24 am arete i... how can you still think sunbae is not town lol

...he's been very villagery today, I'm not denying that, just.

weh.

at this point I'm just waiting for Vul to show up. which will probably not be for several hours, so this might not be a good plan.

...if Vulgard turns out to be a wolf somehow

which I still don't believe

but

if

then Outed Wolf is never ever ever a wolf

like

outed wolf wrote: ↑Thu May 27, 2021 8:40 pm
Arete wrote: ↑Thu May 27, 2021 8:37 pm
outed wolf wrote: ↑Thu May 27, 2021 8:32 pm
Arete wrote: ↑Thu May 27, 2021 8:29 pm
outed wolf wrote: ↑Thu May 27, 2021 7:31 pm
Arete wrote: ↑Thu May 27, 2021 7:29 pm
bronana wrote: ↑Thu May 27, 2021 7:27 pm

is his godread on you as good as his godread on gavial?
his godread on me is real and supported by an extensive history of games as both V/V and V/W
much like his extensive history of games with seth eh?
I'm sort of mrrr about how Outed Wolf is trying to discredit townreads on me/reasons to townread me without actually pushing for me to get killed (or even really expressing more than a slight scumread on me)

it kind of feels like he's trying to make sure that I'm a viable push for the future but doesn't want to get his hands dirty pushing me now
LOL

hilarious post - i said i thought you were a villager yesterday, the post is making light of vulgard not you
alright, what was your motivation behind discrediting Vul's reads?
... because he was wrong? he spent like 80 posts yesterday saying how much of a gavial god reader he was and that we couldnt let gavial slip away and we had to kill gavial

with his EXTENSIVE history of catching gavial and hes NEVER BEEN WRONG BEFORE

and he was wrong.

W R O N G
R
O
N
G

INCORRECT

NOT RIGHT

so i gave him a bit of shit for it

no one treats their partner like this, no one makes a show of rubbing their partner's face in their "wrong" reads in this way -- not because it would be too harsh for distancing, or whatever, but because the motivation isn't to distance, it's to make fun of him, and that's not something that makes sense to do to your wolfmate

I think I'm explaining this badly

but

tfw someone claims a redcheck on your top townread and you keep waiting for them to be super wolfy so you can bury them and they keep making villagery posts

Sunbae do you absolutely 100 percent hardclaim that if you are a villager you are specifically the Jailkeeper who jailkept specifically Vulgard, and definitely didn't, like, change your action and forget or something

I didn't actually read all the quotes but I do notice that Chloe specifically sheeped onto the Amy wagon without actually making a read on her herself, just saying that she was sheeping Nutella (?)

which isn't necessarily always scummy, I did the same thing with sheeping Vul onto Amy , but when she voted Alison she did the same thing where most of the justification she gave for her vote was reasonable-but-not-alignment-based ('Dya is more useful than Alison' type logic) rather than actually calling Alison a wolf even if she did shade her nonpresence a bit

and that's a pattern that makes me mrrr a bit, justifying your vote with a reason that's still true if you have TMI is the sort of mistake I don't expect Chloe to prevent herself from making

bronana wrote: ↑Sun May 30, 2021 11:52 pm
Arete wrote: ↑Sun May 30, 2021 11:30 pm
bronana wrote: ↑Sun May 30, 2021 11:21 pm if vulgard jailed sunbae, there was zero reason to claim because my votepost could have reasonably been interpreted as a soft that I'd jailed sunbae. Surely vulgard would have recognized the opportunity for a potential roleswap without blatantly hinting to marl to claim?

Vulgard wrote: ↑Sun May 30, 2021 6:41 pm
Marluxion wrote: ↑Sun May 30, 2021 6:39 pm
Vulgard wrote: ↑Sun May 30, 2021 6:36 pm I don't think I'll need to explain.

I understand why people want to turboyeet dya but there's also other stuff I'd like to discuss.
Should I tell them
I don't think you'll have to? Up to you though.

alright if you are that confident in your ability to read vulgard, i can see how you'd interpret it that way (though I disagree - he is still lightly encouraging marl to claim there despite my post, and further marl clearly thought vul meant he jailed c4, and vul didn't contradict him)

It is true that Vulgard didn't contradict him but he also has not posted since Marl made the claim post, and he's in a European time zone, though I agree that it would probably be weird for him to soft that Marl should claim to him and then go to sleep without waiting to see if he actually did/what he claimed??

I do agree that from his posting alone it makes more sense for him to have targeted c4 than Sunbae, I just struggle to understand Sunbae's counterclaim in that world. Like, 'I'm going to literally mechanically out myself tomorrow so that I can get a single PR misexe'd and tie myself to a wolfmate who's always getting yeeted, due to being redchecked by said PR' is approximately the most nonsensical wolf strategy I can come up with.

bronana wrote: ↑Sun May 30, 2021 11:21 pm if vulgard jailed sunbae, there was zero reason to claim because my votepost could have reasonably been interpreted as a soft that I'd jailed sunbae. Surely vulgard would have recognized the opportunity for a potential roleswap without blatantly hinting to marl to claim?

Vulgard wrote: ↑Sun May 30, 2021 6:41 pm
Marluxion wrote: ↑Sun May 30, 2021 6:39 pm
Vulgard wrote: ↑Sun May 30, 2021 6:36 pm I don't think I'll need to explain.

I understand why people want to turboyeet dya but there's also other stuff I'd like to discuss.
Should I tell them
I don't think you'll have to? Up to you though.

nutella wrote: ↑Sun May 30, 2021 11:03 pm
Arete wrote: ↑Sun May 30, 2021 10:52 pm I'm in a weird place right now where I want to solve things that aren't just Vul/Sunbae

but the Vul/Sunbae thing is obviously super important for that

and even though Vulgard is 99 percent just the villager there's still a little part of me that's scared that I'll start looking through Sunbae for associations and Vulgard will get back and start lolcatting

weh

I skimmed through Sunbae's Iso hoping to find a smoking gun that would prove he's a lying wolf but sadly I didn't find one

alternatively if Vul gets back and doesn't immediately openwolf I can spend every one of my posts defending him and pushing Sunbae, I have a hundred and forty of them today
why do you think vul is 99% v

idgi

are you just openwolfing

I'm assuming you don't just want a reiteration of my reasons for townreading him

I know him very well and historically have had an extremely high rate of accurately reading him by the end of day 1, so it would be very surprising if I were wrong here, more surprising than a wolf faking a redcheck (which happens all the time)

also I really don't want to be wrong because I like having an automatic free mason/free wolf pelt but that doesn't affect the odds that I am wrong

staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Sun May 30, 2021 11:01 pm in post number one, vulgard asks me a pointed question about whether or not i am still shielding c4

in post number two, vulgard says that he understands why people want to turboyeet dya, but that there's something "else" he wants to discuss first. this is clearly implying that vulgard has a guilty on someone that isnt dyachei

in post number three, vulgard asks marl if he's seeing what he's seeing

in post number four, (and this is the most important part), vulgard gives marluxion the option to claim for him

I don't know

I didn't see Marl and Vulgard's chat, Marl says that Vul seemed to be not scumreading Sunbae but I don't know what he actually said about them

It's also possible that he jailkept c4 but in that case I have literally no idea what Sunbae is doing. The theory about Vul jailkeeping Sunbae was mostly me trying to rationalize Sunbae's behavior and it's possible that I came up with the wrong rationalization.

staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Sun May 30, 2021 11:01 pm doesn't the language of vulgard's post toward marluxion (the one where he says: "you might not even need to claim for me") imply that his guilty was on someone that already had a lot of scrutiny? how the hell does that fit in a world where vulgard investigated someone like sunbae?

Bronana had just voted Sunbae, in P#2683. C4 was under suspicion at that time but actually didn't have any votes, Sunbae and Dya were the only people to have votes before Marl claimed.

I'm in a weird place right now where I want to solve things that aren't just Vul/Sunbae

but the Vul/Sunbae thing is obviously super important for that

and even though Vulgard is 99 percent just the villager there's still a little part of me that's scared that I'll start looking through Sunbae for associations and Vulgard will get back and start lolcatting

weh

I skimmed through Sunbae's Iso hoping to find a smoking gun that would prove he's a lying wolf but sadly I didn't find one

alternatively if Vul gets back and doesn't immediately openwolf I can spend every one of my posts defending him and pushing Sunbae, I have a hundred and forty of them today

outed wolf wrote: ↑Sun May 30, 2021 9:03 pm
Arete wrote: ↑Sun May 30, 2021 9:02 pm
bronana wrote: ↑Sun May 30, 2021 8:55 pm he also could have planned on marl being dead before it became relevant anyway

it doesn't make sense for wolf!Vul to plan around Marl being dead within the next couple of phases because he would have known that Marl was VT/otherwise non PR
amy is just an ic and vul possibly just wanted to figure out if marl was jk

I feel like Marl claiming JK, then rescinding and saying it was just a reactiontest to gauge his alignment and that he's actually not the JK, would have been a pretty major clue that Marl wasn't JK

but I guess I don't know exactly how it went down in the neighborhood

bronana wrote: ↑Sun May 30, 2021 8:55 pm he also could have planned on marl being dead before it became relevant anyway

it doesn't make sense for wolf!Vul to plan around Marl being dead within the next couple of phases because he would have known that Marl was VT/otherwise non PR

Amy wrote: ↑Sun May 30, 2021 8:41 pm does vulgard try to hardbus c4 like that?

thats the main thing holding me back

I still think he's a villager but with that being said hardbussing people is within his wolfrange (particularly if he expects them to sink anyways), he prefers to powerwolf but he's not, like, a 'never bus' type or a 'never bus more than slightly' type

Arete wrote: ↑Sun May 30, 2021 8:14 pm while Vulgard was still alive

*while Marl was still alive

sunbae wrote: ↑Sun May 30, 2021 8:11 pm Arete, if you can come up with a plan that results in wolves trying to kill Vulgard, not roleblocking Amy, Vulgard claiming Jailkeeper to Marl, and me being the real Jailkeeper I'm all ears but that scenario seems nonexistent to me (or to others who believed the c4 claim by marl was a mechanical lock) so help me see it

Sunbae, if you can come up with a plan that results in wolf Vulgard randomly hardclaiming Jailkeeper to Marl in the neighborhood, overnight, before he saw the night results, when the real-in-this-world Jailkeeper claiming at any point while Vulgard was still alive would force him into a thunderdome, I'm all ears, but that scenario seems nonexistent to me so help me see it

(it's possible that I'm wrong about the exact details of night actions/who was carrying the kill/etc. but I'm not really sure why you would falsely claim a redcheck on him for any reason other than being a wolf)

Marluxion wrote: ↑Sun May 30, 2021 8:00 pm
Arete wrote: ↑Sun May 30, 2021 7:59 pm
Marluxion wrote: ↑Sun May 30, 2021 7:54 pm Arete you're going to get yourself mld if you are actually town.
if Vulgard is somehow a wolf here that was going to happen no matter what I said today

like it's not like people would be like 'oh, well, Arete spent two days explaining how their godread on Vulgard made him town, but that's okay, because once he was redchecked they stopped defending him'

I'm not going to pretend to think he's a wolf when I don't just to possibly marginally reduce the chances that I get chainelimed down the line
This is like
Heavy sunk cost fallacy
You're tunneled

it's only sunk cost fallacy if the thing you think I'm optimizing for is 'not getting misexe'd if Vulgard is a wolf'

when actually the thing I'm optimizing for is 'correctly reading Vulgard'

look if he comes back and starts lolcatting or something then I'll stop defending him, but I think he's a villager and I'm not going to pretend I don't

I have found him as village despite an incorrect redcheck before, https://forum.throneoflies.com/t/sfol-5 ... -won/79225 (ignore the fact that I voted him, I was a 3p getting blackmailed by wrong villagers, the point is that I was correctly calling him a lock villager despite the redcheck)

Marluxion wrote: ↑Sun May 30, 2021 7:54 pm Arete you're going to get yourself mld if you are actually town.

if Vulgard is somehow a wolf here that was going to happen no matter what I said today

like it's not like people would be like 'oh, well, Arete spent two days explaining how their godread on Vulgard made him town, but that's okay, because once he was redchecked they stopped defending him'

I'm not going to pretend to think he's a wolf when I don't just to possibly marginally reduce the chances that I get chainelimed down the line

Marluxion wrote: ↑Sun May 30, 2021 7:48 pm
Arete wrote: ↑Sun May 30, 2021 7:46 pm
sunbae wrote: ↑Sun May 30, 2021 7:41 pm my initial thought was "vul trying to get marl to out as jk on c4 red check once the day started means that c4 isn't a wolf. vul knew they were 100% outed (my thinking was they thought c4 was jk so they were trying to get marl to claim it, c4 counters, we kill c4, then marl, then hate ourselves) so ill listen to arguments on it being some mega level with c4 wolf too
okay but this theory doesn't make sense in the first place because Vul would have had ~no reason to claim jailkeeper to Marl overnight in that world

ah yes

wolf Vulgard psychically determined that he would be jailkept, and rather than doing literally anything else about this he claimed jailkeeper to Marl, anticipating that when the kill failed he could manipulate Marl into claiming JK who targeted c4, just in case c4 happened to be the jailkeeper

what an incredibly plausible and realistic theory
Arete why would sunbae yolo one for one with Vulgard if sunbae is a wolf

It isn't lylo and one of the two is exactly the wolf roleblocker

If Sunbae carried the nightkill he would know that he would be outed anyway as soon as the real jailkeeper claimed. In this world, he would know that your claim to have jailkept c4 was false (as that would not explain the failed nightkill). He could reasonably have deduced from your interactions with Vulgard today that Vulgard was the real jailkeeper (this is actually true even if Vul was fakeclaiming to you as VT -- although in this world it would be pretty obvious from the real non-Vul jailkeeper CCing Sunbae), and claimed a red on Vul so that when Vul claimed a red on him it would look reactionary.

staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Sun May 30, 2021 7:44 pm
Arete wrote: ↑Sun May 30, 2021 7:39 pm
staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Sun May 30, 2021 7:37 pm
Arete wrote: ↑Sun May 30, 2021 7:36 pm
staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Sun May 30, 2021 7:26 pm in a world where vulgard/c4 are wolves, what was vulgard's endgame w/guiltying c4 and making marl claim it for him? it would make sense to me if vulgard intended for c4 to flip villager and then for marl to get chopped the next day for fakeclaiming a guilty

but if c4 is a wolf, what does vulgard gain by doing that?
if he's a wolf (which he isn't) he wouldn't have known that the kill would be blocked when he was talking to Marl last night
yeah sure, but i don't understand how that relates to the point that i'm making. i might be misunderstanding you?
hypothetical wolf Vulgard couldn't have planned anything out when he was talking to Marl like 'I'll claim JK to him, and then get him to frame c4 tomorrow' because he wouldn't have known that there would be no kill

idk if I explained that in a way that makes sense
yeah that does make sense - i think that vulgard decided to claim JK upon seeing that no one died, and that he was probably laying the groundwork for a fakeclaim later in the game prior to that point

i dont understand why that reasoning points to vulgard being a villager

Vulgard claimed jailkeeper to Marl in their night chat

their chat that happened at night

night being the time BEFORE the kill (or in this case, the lack of a kill) is posted

sunbae wrote: ↑Sun May 30, 2021 7:41 pm my initial thought was "vul trying to get marl to out as jk on c4 red check once the day started means that c4 isn't a wolf. vul knew they were 100% outed (my thinking was they thought c4 was jk so they were trying to get marl to claim it, c4 counters, we kill c4, then marl, then hate ourselves) so ill listen to arguments on it being some mega level with c4 wolf too

okay but this theory doesn't make sense in the first place because Vul would have had ~no reason to claim jailkeeper to Marl overnight in that world

ah yes

wolf Vulgard psychically determined that he would be jailkept, and rather than doing literally anything else about this he claimed jailkeeper to Marl, anticipating that when the kill failed he could manipulate Marl into claiming JK who targeted c4, just in case c4 happened to be the jailkeeper

what an incredibly plausible and realistic theory

staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Sun May 30, 2021 7:37 pm
Arete wrote: ↑Sun May 30, 2021 7:36 pm
staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Sun May 30, 2021 7:26 pm in a world where vulgard/c4 are wolves, what was vulgard's endgame w/guiltying c4 and making marl claim it for him? it would make sense to me if vulgard intended for c4 to flip villager and then for marl to get chopped the next day for fakeclaiming a guilty

but if c4 is a wolf, what does vulgard gain by doing that?
if he's a wolf (which he isn't) he wouldn't have known that the kill would be blocked when he was talking to Marl last night
yeah sure, but i don't understand how that relates to the point that i'm making. i might be misunderstanding you?

hypothetical wolf Vulgard couldn't have planned anything out when he was talking to Marl like 'I'll claim JK to him, and then get him to frame c4 tomorrow' because he wouldn't have known that there would be no kill

idk if I explained that in a way that makes sense

which is more an argument for him not being a wolf in the first place than for anything specific about c4's alignment

I agree that if Vulgard were to be a wolf c4 would look good from that

staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Sun May 30, 2021 7:26 pm in a world where vulgard/c4 are wolves, what was vulgard's endgame w/guiltying c4 and making marl claim it for him? it would make sense to me if vulgard intended for c4 to flip villager and then for marl to get chopped the next day for fakeclaiming a guilty

but if c4 is a wolf, what does vulgard gain by doing that?

if he's a wolf (which he isn't) he wouldn't have known that the kill would be blocked when he was talking to Marl last night

Marluxion wrote: ↑Sun May 30, 2021 7:30 pm It's literally his only suspicion he rambled on at length last night

okay

did he mention Sunbae at any point and if so what did he say about them

Marluxion wrote: ↑Sun May 30, 2021 7:22 pm @Arete if Vulgard was the jailkeeper he would have targeted c4 from our conversation last night

Meaning sunbae, if a wolf, would know this information was correct. Your theory doesn't check out.

how confident are you about this

like did he say 'by the way, I, Vulgard, the jailkeeper, am targeting c4,' or did he say 'hm, c4 is kind of suspicious'

staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Sun May 30, 2021 7:20 pm
Arete wrote: ↑Sun May 30, 2021 7:16 pm ok so this is a really dumb theory and if Vul is somehow a wolf then saying it is super minus EV because it just tells him what to fakeclaim

but

if Sunbae is a wolf who carried the kill

he would have TMI that Marl is faking (since he would know that c4 didn't carry the kill)

and TMI that the real jailkeeper is going to out him

and he would probably put together with Marl + Vul's conversation at SoD that Vul was the actual jailkeeper

and this is all very convoluted but I think it's more likely than the world where I was wrong about Vul
in a world where this is a reality, why did vulgard heavily imply to marl at the start of the day that he had a guilty on c4? vulgard's overall approach to the start of the day almost certainly would have been different in a world where he was a JK with a guilty on sunbae, don't you think?

he didn't

he softed a guilty but he only mentioned c4 once (which is admittedly more than the zero times he mentioned Sunbae)

Vulgard wrote: ↑Sun May 30, 2021 6:26 pm
JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Sun May 30, 2021 6:00 pm Night 2 has ended. Nobody has died.

Day 3 begins. You have 48 hours to place your votes.

I’ll post a quiz answer key here later when I can.
Hoping this is a redcheck and not a save, but I'll take either.

Vulgard wrote: ↑Sun May 30, 2021 6:29 pm
staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Sun May 30, 2021 6:07 pm that makes two days in a row where I ended the day with dyachei as one of my strongest suspects, only to not feel confident to push the momentum in the direction of their chop

im done with that. i want dya gone today and if they're a villager then I take responsibility for it
I'm going to sleep soon but I need to ask this.

Are you still shielding c4? I have some thoughts about dya myself but I need to ask this first.

Vulgard wrote: ↑Sun May 30, 2021 6:30 pm
Marluxion wrote: ↑Sun May 30, 2021 6:25 pm VULGARD AND I BOTH LIVED ITS ACTUALLY A CHRISTMAS MIRACLE
Marl are you seeing what I'm seeing?

Vulgard wrote: ↑Sun May 30, 2021 6:36 pm I don't think I'll need to explain.

I understand why people want to turboyeet dya but there's also other stuff I'd like to discuss.

Vulgard wrote: ↑Sun May 30, 2021 6:41 pm
Marluxion wrote: ↑Sun May 30, 2021 6:39 pm
Vulgard wrote: ↑Sun May 30, 2021 6:36 pm I don't think I'll need to explain.

I understand why people want to turboyeet dya but there's also other stuff I'd like to discuss.
Should I tell them
I don't think you'll have to? Up to you though.

and he hasn't been in the thread since Marl claimed the guilty on c4 so he would have no way of knowing that Marl was claiming a guilty that was incorrect

sunbae wrote: ↑Sun May 30, 2021 7:09 pm
Marluxion wrote: ↑Sun May 30, 2021 7:08 pm
sunbae wrote: ↑Sun May 30, 2021 7:06 pm ehhhh i think ima skip the whole song and dance because wolves know this is wrong

counter
vulgards a wolf
WAIT WHAT
i am the jailkeeper

i roleblocked vulgard because i could tell this game was going poorly and that the god read player not caring one bit about being wrong was sketch + they were the easy kill carrier

ergo they are a wolf

sunbae wrote: ↑Sun May 30, 2021 7:16 pm though i targeted him as an angel target

gottem

[VOTE: Sunbae] aubergine

ok so this is a really dumb theory and if Vul is somehow a wolf then saying it is super minus EV because it just tells him what to fakeclaim

but

if Sunbae is a wolf who carried the kill

he would have TMI that Marl is faking (since he would know that c4 didn't carry the kill)

and TMI that the real jailkeeper is going to out him

and he would probably put together with Marl + Vul's conversation at SoD that Vul was the actual jailkeeper

and this is all very convoluted but I think it's more likely than the world where I was wrong about Vul

I'm not really sure why Sunbae is trying to 1-v-1 Marl here when c4 is already outed but that sure is a thing that's happening, I guess?

sunbae wrote: ↑Sun May 30, 2021 7:08 pm pretty sure vulgard baited him into claiming to throw shade at the day and out me but my hands are tied and i cant let the day be spent clearing vulgard and casing c4

so your theory is ... Marl is a villager who Vulgard somehow mind controlled into fakeclaiming jailkeeper? lol

Amy pointed this out already but it would be really weird for wolves to decide to just factional kill c4 (which could in theory happen), or any non-Amy target, while not roleblocking Amy

@Marluxion

am I reading you correctly that you claimed to Vul in your neighborhood

he was already clear but if he can be extra clear that's cool too

[VOTE: c4] aubergine

okay well I guess my reads just suck then

:wowee:

ngl I thought bronana was softing jailkeeper who targeted Sunbae

Spoiler: show

Chloe wrote: ↑Sat May 29, 2021 2:09 am
Marluxion wrote: ↑Sat May 29, 2021 2:06 am wolfing with them in deck mafia, their wim was probably already super low after the loss
idk if this is their direct next game or not but if they did rand wolf back to back with that game it could explain why their wim is demonstrably low this game
im ngl i didnt think alison was someone who gets hit with wimdrops
i dont know her super well but from my few convos with her shes pretty level-headed and 'gg go next'

i dont think her disconnect is super duper AI, really

Chloe wrote: ↑Sat May 29, 2021 2:03 am okay im ngl ive had this thought going through my head for a while but its bit me in the ass before so ive been not really wanting to share

but like
what the hell is alison's gameplan as a wolf? i dont understand. is she being set up to push the other wolves deeper via bus? does she legitimately have zero gameplan and shes super disconnected from the thread?

to be fair i dont know what shes doing if shes a villager either but the fact that i cant pinpoint any true direction or agenda from her gives me a lot of doubts about the wagon being a hit

Chloe wrote: ↑Sat May 29, 2021 2:45 am people who have experience playing with alison:

would wolf!alison fake being unaware of when EoD is and self-pres without a PR claim? shes locked into a VT claim now pretty much
isnt she one of the people who thinks fakeclaiming PR for the cc or potential to live another day is almost always optimal or am i mixing her up with someone else

Chloe wrote: ↑Sat May 29, 2021 3:24 am alison/dya isnt a world unless the plan is to send exactly dya deep
but like why the hell
they'd be down a partner *already* and its extremely suboptimal
and dya would have to explain being freakin alive in lylo after dunking on alison

its not really a world in my mind

Chloe wrote: ↑Sat May 29, 2021 4:41 am continuing through d1:

multiple people have brought up c4's shortened readslists and asked him to please stop using that formatting. it actually kinda rubs me the wrong way that hes pretty much ignoring requests to cooperate. maybe hes smug town that wont change his playstyle to appeal to the masses but i feel like he'd state that somewhere?

just had a really dumb chloe moment
thought someone tmi'd their buddy but then realized i just suck at reading
lol

dizzy's treatment of seth is a big ol' whatze fuck but so incredibly unnecessary and against the grain as a wolf that i feel it's villagery

spf actually bothering to interact with seth and trying to dig into his brain is a good look as it seems the consensus is to just brush him off as wolfy and accept that he's the chop. no dunk-fest or painting him in a bad light. this doesnt feel like the spf i saw in CoV either. no indication of hardbussing for the c r e d, and her posts dont feel overly padded? also a distinct lack of lampshading which is good
(i'll also add on that her progression on me doesnt give me any bad vibes)
tossing out the How To Find SPF As Town guide pretty early on initially felt premature to me and very out of place. didnt like it. im usually not a fan of that type of thing. though upon re-read im actually leaning in the opposite direction now. its ever-so-slightly townie to break the flow of the thread willingly.. and at the same time doing something blatantly gross (self-meta! woo!) yet her post doesn't feel like shes using it as a crutch or gaslighting (for lack of a better word) the thread into thinking shes been villagery af bro! (either of which i'd expect from a wolf more than just a 'hi heres a little thing on how to figure me out. do with it what you will i guess' and leaving it at that)
reading the whole sunbae/spf interaction with a clearer mind makes me realize i was pretty damn conf-biased my first time around just because of how icky i found the guide in general, and i kinda.. wanted her to be a wolf a little bit? still think sunbae DIVING in and going ham, as well as the follow-up discussion with spf, is fairly villagery

this isnt really the type of associative-read i'd expect from a woofer? this is a read i think applies *much* more to anyone newer to wolfing, or fm in general, but it goes a level deeper than what i'm used to seeing from wolves so ye its a good vibe

pretty much every new nut posts just solidifies my read there
on a related note i didnt mention this earlier i dont think (?) but i think the fact that dya hasnt found nut when im like.. really confident there, is concerning? im see-saw between it being wolfy and it being villagery but i dont really understand it at this point - and from what i saw it was mostly based on the fact that shes not as.. bouncy as they're used to? @dyachei i can you expand on your nut read for me please? i could be getting snowed, but i really dont think i am. i'd appreciate a more fleshed out post or two that i can dig into please (will check and make sure i didnt miss anything from you wrt nut after im done with this)

im reading through alison's take regarding seth and i can see an argument for it being tmi - but i dont get why she would do that and what she thinks she gets from his flip? she'd have to know she'd look bad? like, if shes a wolf i cant help but get the feeling shes positioning herself to be bussed and put the other wolves in a better position, but also.. we're down a wolf and thats super risky and not optimal. im preflipping a bit but if alison flips wolf PR i think dya is just lickity lock. if she flips goon i think theres a chance she could be being bussed *i guess* (heavily heavily doubt tbqh) but i dont fully feel like fully entertaining either of these worlds without a flip. i personally think shes flippin v.

lol @ nut just assuming seth is a wolf lmao - then in the next post remembering wolf prs exist. like cmonn the girl is a villager

feel like arete would just be contributing to the dunk-fest on seth and moreso trying to stop people from finding him, rather than bringing up actual legitimate points in his favor. not a very strong read of mine since i didnt see a lot of action to back up their words and this is mostly based on What I Expect From Wolfrete but yeah its a better look than not tbh. and their fear that they'll be paired with seth if he flips w is kinda pure yeah

this post from hally has good thoughts wrt marl - i vibe with them
the series of posts here has some of the upbeat chaotic energy i expect from villamorl

i'm a HUGE sucker for emotions and seeing dya get upset at how people are treating them is hard for me to not assign some townpoints. otherwise i dont have many thoughts on them wrt d1 (but ugh this feels TMI-y considering their read on nut :/)
if wagons stay like this i'll probably be going dya just because of a few things i find as somewhat townie from alison
dya is my first iso to look into in the morning

ohmygod im finally caught up on everything
i finally understand what the hell is happening in this game lmao
i can see clearly now, the rain is gone

bye

Chloe wrote: ↑Sat May 29, 2021 2:28 pm
Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Sat May 29, 2021 4:54 am
Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Sat May 29, 2021 4:49 am
Chloe wrote: ↑Sat May 29, 2021 4:41 amdizzy's treatment of seth is a big ol' whatze fuck but so incredibly unnecessary and against the grain as a wolf that i feel it's villagery
For the last time. My treatment of Gavial was that I thought it was likely he was mafia, and I wanted him to spew the fuck out of his teammates. I have just finished a game where us two were the mafia team, and he death tunnelled me for no reason from the get go, and it looked very janky, so if he was mafia I wanted to give him ample opportunity to get messy in the thread and create more stuff around him.

I've explained this a few times now. I don't really see what's so crazy about it.
@Chloe I just realised you probably haven't read my explanations for this, so fair comment on your end. I just got annoyed because I feel like I've explained this a lot. And it's like people are asking "Why would scum do this" and come up with "No compute", but they don't ask "Why would town do this" and then take into account the actual reason why. (Or at least one of the reasons, other being I just wanted to create [stuff])
Okay, thank you! And apologies
your annoyance feels villagery dont mind me
Marluxion wrote: ↑Sat May 29, 2021 4:59 am
Chloe wrote: ↑Sat May 29, 2021 3:26 am wait what the fuck do my remaining posts carry over to tomorrow?

i've never played with something like that

this is amazing
they dont you get 100 each day which is why my cap for today is like 180 something
ohhhhhhhhhhhhhh
okay gotcha im an idiot who read something wrong ty

Marluxion wrote: ↑Sat May 29, 2021 5:16 am
Alison wrote: ↑Thu May 27, 2021 8:08 pm
dyachei wrote: ↑Thu May 27, 2021 8:03 pm
bronana wrote: ↑Thu May 27, 2021 8:02 pm I'm not sure why amy and dya have to be aligned with each other at all
because alison is omgusing
I am yes.

I did not put Amy and you into a team together, I just said you two were my suspects.

Alison wrote: ↑Thu May 27, 2021 8:09 pm I think in this specific state my OMGUSes are a lot more likely to be correct than usual so I would appreciate if people didn't brush it off as "oh she's just OMGUSing".
this is a v strange string of posts
it just doesnt feel genuine?
I actually got the opposite impression of these? I agreed with arete earlier that the whole "yeah im OMGUSing, but my OMGUSing is RIGHT" is kinda villagery

Marluxion wrote: ↑Sat May 29, 2021 5:23 am i think alison and dya do have some potential as partners just because of the way they've been treating each other
it feels like dya and soah in reflections a bit
i disagree - i dont think the two have much partner equity
also wasnt dya like.. hard defending soah in reflections? i thought they were doing the opposite of what theyre doing here lol

dyachei wrote: ↑Sat May 29, 2021 10:21 am
Chloe, what do you find villagery from alison? that she seemingly has no agenda? And while I bus as a wolf, I never bus like this
Some very base-level things, like the fact that I don't understand what the hell she's doing here if she's a wolf. I don't get why she would put herself in such a weirdass position with her Gavial defense, why it feels like there's zero indication of agenda from her, and theres no direction at all. Like.. she's not doing jack shit to try to get other people to go over before she does. I agree with c4's assessment at SoD (and i find it kinda odd that its not really being brought up). I honestly believe that she wouldn't have acted how she did and faked not knowing when EoD is - and even if she *did* she would either do a last-second PR claim to shuttle votes elsewhere, or actually attempt to get someone else wagoned with more than a 'voting here for self pres. bye'

I don't hard townread her by any means, but I do think shes >rand V

And admittedly the fact that people are now tying me in with her for ??? reasons makes my brain do a big middle finger and i want to be right for the sweet 'i told you so'

Like
What the fuck ever, she probably dies no matter what because shes contributing legit nothing and not defending herself
But I don't think shes a hit

bronana wrote: ↑Sat May 29, 2021 12:36 pm I don't think dya is a wolf. it's possible I'm wrong of course, I'll deservedly eat shit if I am, but ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ I think they're just town and they have also been on Alison's case all game who is also the person I want to kill. I have not seen any compelling reason to think Alison is a villa, she is putting surprisingly little effort in to solve the game.

it's odd, I would have expected the votes to shift to Alison after Amy's claim, but dya is now in the lead by 3 votes, and one of the alison voters is visor who has been one of the hardest dya pushers this game. dark forces etc

I kinda think Chloe is just a wolf regardless of whether there are 0, 1, or 2 wolves in alison/dya. this one's harder to explain and I'll need to go look back at stuff to flesh it out more / check myself. tangy has been an obvious villager for me every game I've played with her, and this time she just wasn't and the progression on kza also looks bad. I agree to some extent with visor's take on Chloe's posts, a lot of repetition and catch up walls that seem like busy work I'm sure she is capable of posting as mafia. I can't put my finger quite on it but their reads are developing in this weird way that seems more like a hyper aware reaction to the game state than a natural development .

in any case most everyone wants to see Alison/dya resolved before they'll entertain Chloe, and I think I also want to see that resolved first too but I wanted to put this out there. not sure who the third wolf is (for some reason I want to say Sunbae? meh) need some time to figure out that one and it's putting the cart before the horse regardless.
Are we reading the same game?
I honestly am getting to the point where it feels like you're doing whatever you can to make sure people don't lock me in as a villager. Your treatment of me doesn't feel like you're truly trying to figure me out.
I'm not doing 'busywork.' I'm providing what thoughts I have with what information I have and trying to get a better understanding of what the hell is happening in this game. I'm finally caught up with all the Day 1 events so i feel more comfortable giving thoughts without them being backed-up by my interpretation of things that happened - based on what other people have been saying.

Chloe wrote: ↑Sat May 29, 2021 3:16 pm
nutella wrote: ↑Sat May 29, 2021 3:12 pm honestly dya has such conviction in alison flipping red that they're either just v or it's the stupid fucking bus thing and i dont think it's the stupid fucking bus thing
yeah
dya never taking their foot off the gas and the sheer insistence feels like a villagery tunnel

i heavily heavily doubt this is a bus here - it'd have started early d1 and continued even after they lost a buddy - which is entirely unnecessary

and the fact that dya is *still* townreading my slot even though im incredibly manic right now and even voting them is making me do brain somersaults

i might just give in and and drop my ego

idk what the fuck alison is doing but dya is doing at least 100x more

Chloe wrote: ↑Sat May 29, 2021 3:17 pm fuck it

[VOTE: Alison] aubergine

no more joy_wowee

Chloe wrote: ↑Sat May 29, 2021 3:20 pm i think wagons could be v/v but dya is a bigger asset to town than a 0-posting alison

im legit annoyed at this point that she isnt posting - regardless of her alignment. its just super frustrating
i want to be right but im probably not if shes not going to bother to do anything to defend herself in the slightest

Chloe wrote: ↑Sat May 29, 2021 3:23 pm
Marluxion wrote: ↑Sat May 29, 2021 3:20 pm so wait
like
now what?
are wolves just hard bussing alison or?
i'm really having a hard time building a world around this
like
say alison flips red
who is a wolf
idfk

the fact that her wagon has been primarily pushed by dya, and i dont read them as being w/w - and dya's sheer insistence is rather villagery - leads me to believe she wasnt a planned bus
i dont think anyone other than dya is really getting credit for this wagon so whats the point

wolves either took the approach of trying to shuttle votes elsewhere or beginning to bus when it became clear alison is going over no matter what

idk maybe c4? but hes nothing like CoV which is giving me pause

idk what the solve is regardless of her alignment rn
im just lost

Chloe wrote: ↑Sat May 29, 2021 3:31 pm bruh im not hard-townreading c4 im just saying CoV *gives me pause* even tho i wanna look his way if alison is v

@Chloe

hello bread

we need to talk about your read on Alison

I feel like every individual take you had on her makes logical sense but they don't make logical sense when you put them together -- you spend a long time shielding her because you're like 'if she's a wolf why isn't she doing literally anything or trying to shade herself' and then you're like 'i want to be right [that she's town] but im probably not if shes not going to bother to do anything to defend herself in the slightest' which is using the same reason you townread her earlier as an argument that she's a wolf

nutella wrote: ↑Sun May 30, 2021 6:05 pm
re: dya, they could be town with a wrong tunnel, but they could be a wolf who successfully pushed through their desired mischop. it will certainly be telling to see where they go next

that is a true statement

in the sense that you literally just took all the options and listed them

Alright, so, I have no idea what Alison was doing but the good news is that this is probably a really good situation to try to analyze both the people pushing her and the people defending her for TMI. I think I'm probably going to have an easier time finding villagers here than wolves, so that's going to be most of what I focus on, probably, unless I see something especially bad?

c4[/b

]So, towards EoD, I thought that c4 could have been TMIing Alison V with his PRread, but he made a post at EoD that I think almost never comes from a place of TMI. P#2461 (which I can't quote because the thread is locked), just before EoD, after Alison didn't come back and claim PR:> So much for me TMIing AlisonI think this post almost certainly comes from a position of genuinely believing, in the moment, that Alison not coming back to claim PR makes her a wolf. There's a smug tone there -- 'you thought I was TMIing her town, but she's a wolf, take that' -- that would be genuinely difficult to fake. I think this post is very villagery.

Dya

This is a slot that I'm ... very conflicted on, given their push on obvious reasons. However, I have a stupid micro reason to believe that they actually believed it -- when I was implying that their posts on Alison weren't outside the range of villager-pushing-a-wolf-and-repping-confidence, they got upset at me for not clearing them for their push on Alison and insisted that it was out of their range to push her like that as partners, completely misreading my post as being about the Dya-bussing world. I think this might indicate that they actually expected Alison to flip scum, based on the specific way they misread my post.

someone had a post that I thought was a lack-of-TMI-indicative shade on Vulgard but when I went and re-read for who it was it was Amy, lol

uh

I was going to do one of these for everyone but I ran out of time so instead you get the first two people who came to mind

my brain is convinced that I should spampost at EoD so that I can have more posts tomorrow

even though I get the same number of posts tomorrow regardless

but in one case the total-allowed-post-number is higher and my brain thinks that means I have more

dyachei wrote: ↑Sat May 29, 2021 5:46 pm
Arete wrote: ↑Sat May 29, 2021 5:44 pm hm

Dya, can you walk me through what your thought process is right now? like a couple sentences of stream-of-consciousness what's going through your head
I'm worried about the votes on me and I really think alison is a wolf. but now I'm worried about c4, too. I thought he had another reason for reading alison as pr but he doesnt. And didnt he mention it when i was in the lead? kind of makes me wonder if he's pushing for the mis elim

hm

I've been mulling this over because like, all of these are reasonable thoughts, but there's not the ... emotion? ... that I'd expect to see if someone you have as 95 percent a wolf is about to go over

like it doesn't feel excited at all

maybe this is a dumb read

hm

Dya, can you walk me through what your thought process is right now? like a couple sentences of stream-of-consciousness what's going through your head

my extremely galaxy-brain take is that the PR read was true but the result of c4 being a wolf PRreading villalison and that that's why he immediately jumped to a PR read, because he had TMI that she wasn't doing this as a wolf

this is probably really dumb

can't wait for Alison to flip green and everyone to be like 'Arete called Alison town early on but then didn't defend them???? arete TMI????'

Vulgard being wrong on reads is NAI for him

I'm not worried about the possibility of Alison being a PR

Spoiler: show

dyachei wrote: ↑Sat May 29, 2021 4:37 pm
Arete wrote: ↑Sat May 29, 2021 4:34 pm
dyachei wrote: ↑Sat May 29, 2021 4:30 pm
Arete wrote: ↑Sat May 29, 2021 4:28 pm
dyachei wrote: ↑Sat May 29, 2021 4:25 pm
Arete wrote: ↑Sat May 29, 2021 4:20 pm
dyachei wrote: ↑Sat May 29, 2021 4:14 pm
why do you keep trying to find reasons to keep me as a wolf?
I'm not 'trying to find reasons to keep you as a wolf' I'm 'baffled that anyone would think that post was worth townreading from anyone with more than about a game of wolfing experience in the first place'
but you are. you keep arguing that everything I do fits a wolf and when someone says maybe it doesnt, you say it does for a new reason
do you actually think the post Nutella quoted would be at all surprising for a wolf-pushing-a-villager (which was the specific hypothetical under discussion) to make

either for a general-wolf or for you-in-particular
you'd have to be a hard busser, which I am not
no like

neither Nutella nor I are talking about the world where that post is a bus

in worlds where Alison is a villager and you are a wolf, is that a post you would struggle to make
oh my bad. probably not

ok

uh

does that clear up why I was trying to argue against townreading you for that post (in V!Alison worlds)

dyachei wrote: ↑Sat May 29, 2021 4:30 pm
Arete wrote: ↑Sat May 29, 2021 4:28 pm
dyachei wrote: ↑Sat May 29, 2021 4:25 pm
Arete wrote: ↑Sat May 29, 2021 4:20 pm
dyachei wrote: ↑Sat May 29, 2021 4:14 pm
Arete wrote: ↑Sat May 29, 2021 4:07 pm
nutella wrote: ↑Sat May 29, 2021 3:14 pm

like this doesn't ever come from a wolf pushing town does it

lol me

i probably owe you numerous apologies dya
oh right also I forgot to say this earlier but this is like

the easiest thing ever to fake

like I don't even have a strong wolfgame but I am capable of confidently stating a villager is a wolf as scum

if this is out of Dya's wolfrange then sure, I'll listen, but I would find it surprising on priors if it were
why do you keep trying to find reasons to keep me as a wolf?
I'm not 'trying to find reasons to keep you as a wolf' I'm 'baffled that anyone would think that post was worth townreading from anyone with more than about a game of wolfing experience in the first place'
but you are. you keep arguing that everything I do fits a wolf and when someone says maybe it doesnt, you say it does for a new reason
do you actually think the post Nutella quoted would be at all surprising for a wolf-pushing-a-villager (which was the specific hypothetical under discussion) to make

either for a general-wolf or for you-in-particular
you'd have to be a hard busser, which I am not

no like

neither Nutella nor I are talking about the world where that post is a bus

in worlds where Alison is a villager and you are a wolf, is that a post you would struggle to make

dyachei wrote: ↑Sat May 29, 2021 4:25 pm
Arete wrote: ↑Sat May 29, 2021 4:20 pm
dyachei wrote: ↑Sat May 29, 2021 4:14 pm
Arete wrote: ↑Sat May 29, 2021 4:07 pm
nutella wrote: ↑Sat May 29, 2021 3:14 pm
dyachei wrote: ↑Sat May 29, 2021 12:32 pm
Vulgard wrote: ↑Sat May 29, 2021 12:31 pm I call Alison a villager, then she re-enters the thread and does this.
yeah alison isn't a villager
like this doesn't ever come from a wolf pushing town does it

lol me

i probably owe you numerous apologies dya
oh right also I forgot to say this earlier but this is like

the easiest thing ever to fake

like I don't even have a strong wolfgame but I am capable of confidently stating a villager is a wolf as scum

if this is out of Dya's wolfrange then sure, I'll listen, but I would find it surprising on priors if it were
why do you keep trying to find reasons to keep me as a wolf?
I'm not 'trying to find reasons to keep you as a wolf' I'm 'baffled that anyone would think that post was worth townreading from anyone with more than about a game of wolfing experience in the first place'
but you are. you keep arguing that everything I do fits a wolf and when someone says maybe it doesnt, you say it does for a new reason

do you actually think the post Nutella quoted would be at all surprising for a wolf-pushing-a-villager (which was the specific hypothetical under discussion) to make

either for a general-wolf or for you-in-particular

dyachei wrote: ↑Sat May 29, 2021 4:14 pm
Arete wrote: ↑Sat May 29, 2021 4:07 pm
nutella wrote: ↑Sat May 29, 2021 3:14 pm
dyachei wrote: ↑Sat May 29, 2021 12:32 pm
Vulgard wrote: ↑Sat May 29, 2021 12:31 pm I call Alison a villager, then she re-enters the thread and does this.
yeah alison isn't a villager
like this doesn't ever come from a wolf pushing town does it

lol me

i probably owe you numerous apologies dya
oh right also I forgot to say this earlier but this is like

the easiest thing ever to fake

like I don't even have a strong wolfgame but I am capable of confidently stating a villager is a wolf as scum

if this is out of Dya's wolfrange then sure, I'll listen, but I would find it surprising on priors if it were
why do you keep trying to find reasons to keep me as a wolf?

I'm not 'trying to find reasons to keep you as a wolf' I'm 'baffled that anyone would think that post was worth townreading from anyone with more than about a game of wolfing experience in the first place'

(this is obviously assuming Alison is a villager, if she's a wolf then it's beside the point anyways because 'confidently stating a wolf is a wolf' is even more in most people's scumranges unless they just never bus)

nutella wrote: ↑Sat May 29, 2021 3:14 pm
dyachei wrote: ↑Sat May 29, 2021 12:32 pm
Vulgard wrote: ↑Sat May 29, 2021 12:31 pm I call Alison a villager, then she re-enters the thread and does this.
yeah alison isn't a villager
like this doesn't ever come from a wolf pushing town does it

lol me

i probably owe you numerous apologies dya

oh right also I forgot to say this earlier but this is like

the easiest thing ever to fake

like I don't even have a strong wolfgame but I am capable of confidently stating a villager is a wolf as scum

if this is out of Dya's wolfrange then sure, I'll listen, but I would find it surprising on priors if it were

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